A Rising Threat
Glenn’s put a lot on the table. But he fails to address a central problem: what to do if and when Iran develops nuclear weapons? At the point Iran achieves an ability to produce a nuclear weapon, a reality coming closer every day according to the International Agency for Atomic Energy, the regional calculus of the entire region changes. Nations, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Israel, immediately become subject to an immediate and, in the case of Israel, existential threat. Even if Iran refrains from an immediate, direct attack, it gains an ability to hold the whole region hostage as it did American hostages twenty-eight years ago.
Glenn goes a long way to painting a broader and more pluralistic picture of the Islamic Republic than is commonly known. Iran is certainly a more ethnically and religiously diverse country than is understood in America. (Given what our students are taught in school about geography and world history, this should be no surprise.) Yet while the country as a whole is different than the conventional wisdom here, we should have no illusions about who is running Iran, the "Supreme Leader", Ayatollah Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards, and its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While it may not be the caricature of the one-person state that Glenn says its critics make it out to be, it has been consistent in its anti-Western and anti-American position since the fall of the Shah in 1979. And among those factions, there is unanimity on a few central points: Iran must continue to develop its nuclear weapons program, Iran must exert dominance throughout the region, ultimately, Israel must be destroyed (I’m sure we’ll get more into this later), and, finally, Iran must become the dominant power in the Muslim world (hence, the importance of destroying Israel). Accordingly, Iran represents a threat to America and our interests in the region.
Rather than a convergance of U.S. and Iranian interests since 2001, Shia Iran has taken advantage of the U.S. use of force against two of its Sunni rivals, the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan and longtime enemy Saddam Hussein in Iraq. Just because Iran was initially happy to see the Taliban and Saddam go, does not mean that it neglected opportunities to enhance its position in the region. Indeed, contrary to Glenn’s depiction of a relatively-benign Iran thrust into a defensive posture by American aggression, Iran is taking the opportunity of perceived American weakness to strive to become a regional hegemon. Why else would Iran now be aiding the Taliban? Recent weeks have witnessed a convergance of their own, a cycle of Iranian-aided and inspired violence throughout the area: Iran training fighters in Iraq, aiding Hezbollah, which is destabilizing Lebanon, supporting Hamas which just took exclusive power in Gaza, and bringing explosive material into Afghanistan. The press is reporting the capture in Iraq of a Lebanese Hezbollah member, which points to an active Iranian hand in that conflict.
















The issue of Iran building a nuke may arise, but it's almost irrelevant as far as it being used. As Chomsky stated, if Iran gives any indication they'll use it the country will be vaporized. Then we'll pretty much have our way with their oil. And it's a pretty safe guess they're aware of that. With the stories yesterday (and in the past) of Iran supporting Iraqi insurgents, it's also a pretty safe guess the U.S. would head them off at the pass and remove the regime upon the slightest indication they have a working bomb. The logic being that the bomb would be handed off to terrorists and brought to Iraq or over to U.S. soil. Whether that would happen is irrelevant too, but it would be speculated in the media as yesterday's stories indicate, and that's enough to get the public thinking it would happen. Iraq was destroyed on the false presumption of possessing nerve toxins. It doesn't take a genius to see how much more easily Iran would be taken out if the U.S. thought they had a nuclear bomb.
July 3, 2007 3:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
China is an existential threat to Taiwan. What do we do? Well, we cope with it. The threat is there, but so is Taiwan. In the long run, both Iran and China may get more amicable governments, in the short run, we cope.
By the way, Iran is not an existential threat to Israel, but only to Israel as we know it: a state that can bully her neighbors with impunity as they have no allies. None of these neighbors is a natural ally or vassal of Iran, but Israel may goad them to become ones.
July 3, 2007 7:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
"And among those factions, there is unanimity on a few central points: Iran must continue to develop its nuclear weapons program, Iran must exert dominance throughout the region, ultimately, Israel must be destroyed (I’m sure we’ll get more into this later), and, finally, Iran must become the dominant power in the Muslim world (hence, the importance of destroying Israel). Accordingly, Iran represents a threat to America and our interests in the region."
This is the type of argument that drives me up a wall: Iran wants to dominate the region. Iran wants to destroy Israel. Therefore, Iran is a threat to America.
Well, no. "Therefore, Iran is a threat to Israel" is the logical statement.
To the extent that the US determines it is in our interest to protect access to resources and to the extent that the US CHOOSES to defend Israel, we have to consider the possibility of an Iranian nuclear threat in the region. But Iran is not a threat to America.
This is the kind of argument that got us into Iraq. Americans need to be told the truth. Are we threatened directly or is this just one of a number of potential threats and one of a number of priorities that need to be balanced in determining the greater good of the American people because the United States government is not in business to serve the interests of anyone else.
July 3, 2007 7:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
While Chomsky is a fool, Liberty bell has it essentially correct. Mutually Assured Destruction stopped the Soviets. The only difference with Iran is that the destruction won't be mutual. They will lose and everyone else will go on with their lives. It would be a catastrophe of huge proportions, but that's the strategy.
In any case, threatening a state with existential destruction is one thing that can push the state to develop nuclear weapons. That's what happened in Pakistan, isn't it? It could very easily be the case that the Administration's war mongering with regard to Iran is factoring into their decision to develop nuclear weapons.
Furthermore, they don't have nuclear weapons now, and probably won't for a few years. We can use that time beneficially to change our relationship with them and, possibly, to alter the dynamics in the region.
July 3, 2007 7:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
If a nuke armed Iran is an existantial threat to Israel - Hurrah!
Perhaps both will, as the US and USSR did, that nuking the other is a bad idea.
MAD in action.
Regs, Shaggy
July 3, 2007 7:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
But he fails to address a central problem: what to do if and when Iran develops nuclear weapons?
Rather than "failing to address" the issue of Iran getting nukes, I think that's really Glenn's whole point -- the Bush Administration is pushing Iran towards nukes.
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
July 3, 2007 7:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
The US military cannot just snap their fingers and "take out" Iran. We tried that in Iraq, and somehow our fingers got crazy glued together. It is time for our country to act like grownups for a change. Iran will eventually develop a nuclear warhead, and may even eventually develop a means of delivering that warhead. But, they are not the only nation that will do that. Any nation that really desires to do so will do the same.
The proper role for us to take in the world is to treat all nations as we would like to be treated by them. We need to drop the idea that we are the biggest, baddest, meanest kid on the block and just accept that we are just another kid.
Hoppy in Sacramento
July 3, 2007 7:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I had never heard of Mr. Gitell until reading his post today, but I certainly have heard of the New York Sun, where he works. I was, as I usually am, curious about his credentials, so I took a look at his biographic information here. No word about what he studied, or where. I guess serving as Thomas Menino's Press Secretary up in Boston does give him qualifications for writing on Iran. . .If one can write on Southie or Dorchester one can write on just about anything.
I went to look at his Blog, figuring that might give me some more sense of what his perspective is. There, I found out he was a graduate of Harvard (isn't everyone?), that he wrote for the Wall Street Journal, the New Republic, and the Los Angeles Times. He has also appeared as a commentator on Fox News, MSNBC, and CNN's Inside Politics. He also posts frequently for Political Mavens a website I had never heard of before researching this post, but quite interesting. The link above lists his recent articles, and I think they're quite illuminative of his Point of View. For example, the summary of Waiting Till it's safe, (filed under Peace is Not the Issue) reads thusly:
I took a bit of a look at Peace is Not the Issue. It explains a lot about Gitell's point of view. Browse a few of the titles and read a few of the articles. If persons think that MJRosenberg is unfair in his support for Palestinians, Peace is Not the Issue shows us a place where some of Rosenberg's antagonists could feel quite comfortable with the company they'd keep. It is also worthwhile to keep up with what the other guys are saying, rather than relax and feel secure in any domination of the debate from the left.
But Gitell's own Blog also is illuminative of his stance on the world in general. When I checked it, the top post was about Rudolph Murdoch's position as a media mogul was based on his heroic father. Wow!
But my favorite bit of Gitell (so far) was his assessment of Gordon Brown's handling of the Press in the resent bomb crisis: I think he channeled Maureen Dowd:
I think Mr. Gitell is to be commended for his courage coming to Blog over here. I expect he's going to get more whacks than loud applause. And I believe that a message needs careful consideration regardless of who the messenger is. If Bush says the sun rises in the east, I'm not going to look for it to rise in the west. At the same time, the political/philosophical context of the messenger influences the message as well, and what I've tried to do here is place Mr. Gitell on the political spectrum so others can assess his general position and also follow up by following links to learn more about him. I'll leave the thumping to others. (I would thump, too, truth be told).
aMike
July 3, 2007 8:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I never thought Chomsky was a fool. How foolish of me. But then, I like being foolish if I'm in good company.
aMike
July 3, 2007 8:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well gee whiz--Maybe you missed it, but we survived the Soviet Union having nuclear weapons and being run by people we were assured were madmen, and the Chinese too. We survived the Iranian hostage crisis (although it gave us Ronald Reagan) and we survivied Hizb'ullah taking hostages in Lebanon. We can survive a nuclear Iran in the same way.
Why people with university degrees think that the present time is more serious than any of the things we have survuved in the last 70 years is beyond me. If we really do face some sort of "exisential" threat (which I sincerely doubt, having more faith in both the US and mankind generally), it is from Pakistan, which actually has functioning nuclear weapons and a delivery sysem and is very unstable, and from the zealots who want get us into a war with Iran, with all the problems Glenn and Chris Floyd set out so clearly.
In short, we will deal with Iran the way we dealt with the Soviets and China--diplomatically, through alliances, through veiled threats, through trade that binds them closer to us, and through their own internal weaknesses brought about by a failing economic system.
But the idea that we have to go to war with the Iranians is just the irresponsible adolescent fantasy of people who want to prove they are as tough as their fathers and grandfathers, without in the least understanding what it was that made them tough.
July 3, 2007 8:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You meaning Seth Gitell.
July 3, 2007 8:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seth Gitell: "At the point Iran achieves an ability to produce a nuclear weapon, a reality coming closer every day according to the International Agency for Atomic Energy"
I'd sure like to see the source of this statement. Every serious appraisal I've seen puts even a possibility of Iran nukes ten years away, and that's a wild guess which discounts the official Iranian position that they don't want nukes. Again, Iran doesn't want nukes.
There are people who misquote President Ahmadinejad and say that Iran wants to destroy Israel, but when Ahmadinejad says (as does the real leader, Khamenei)) that Iran doesn't want nukes these same people say: Don't believe him.
While 2017 is in fact coming closer every day, the quoted statement makes an Iranian nuke seem imminent, which it isn't. Dr. Elbaradei of the IAEA has consistently said that he sees no evidence of nuke development.
This is the kind of irresponsible talk that is leading us to a terrible new war.
July 3, 2007 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
He was a great philosopher of language and linguist. He's a terrible political commentator. Chomsky is exhibit one in the case against academics writing outside their field.
July 3, 2007 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hoppy's got it. While I'm a little less inclined than the original post and many comments here to celebrate Iran's pluralism or feel the world will be calm and not more explosive after Iran gets stronger, so what? The idea that, "wow, we gotta do something" is mindless, and it encourages mindless tough talk leading to mindless tough action. In fact, that's what got Iran's idiot president elected and the reform movement stifled in the first place.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
July 3, 2007 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wow, Seth makes some very compelling points, and if any of them were true, we would have real grounds for concern.
As it is:
Note Seth's careful wording here. The ability to produce a nuclear weapon, as opposed to actually producing a nuclear weapon. Seth is speaking to Iranian potential, while couching it in such a way as to blur the distinction between a hypothetical and an active threat. By framing his words this way, Seth leaves us with the impression that they're going to create a nuclear weapon any day now, grounds for hysteria. But his actual careful words only speak to an accumulating Iranian technological prowess. Way to mislead! I say this not to harsh on Seth, really. I express admiration of his mastery of sophist techniques.
Oh, and that 'day by day' thing, while technically correct (in that day does follow day), leaves us with the impression of 'any day now.' The truth is, however, that best estimates in terms of actual Iranian capacity to produce a nuclear weapon suggest that this capacity will not mature for 5 to 10 years (the more hysterical say two, but they have a lot of qualifications).
Even five to ten years may be too short a window. A single nuclear weapon is all but worthless. Real deterrant/offensive capacity requires a stockpile of a weapons, which it takes time to build. And there has to be a realistic delivery capacity - missiles or long range bombers (preferably missiles) which take time to develop, and more time to adapt nuclear warheads to missiles.
So realistically, while Iran does advance day by day to some bright and sunny hypothetical moment when they could develop a nuclear weapon and pose their neighbors existential threats... that day is ten to fifteen years away. I guess Seth forgot to mention that.
Of course, Israel already has an estimated 200 to 400 nuclear weapons, and already has the delivery systems, as well as a hardened second strike capacity. So I don't think that they're really facing an existential threat. Given the vast gap, the best the Iranians could ever hope for is MAD, and it will be a while, even after they achieve technological capacity, for them to develop and harden enough weapons and delivery systems to achieve MAD.
As for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, etc., dropping nukes on those countries would be crapping in its own back yard. While its hypothetically possible for a future Iran to nuke the UAE, its pretty much guaranteed that Iran would eat the radiation fallout. It's also pretty unlikely that it would survive the political fallout.
ROTFL!!! Good one! Excellent! Well, there's no waving the bloody shirt here, is there? No appeal to inflammatory hysteria? I don't think I was out of high school when that happened.
Just for the record, how many Embassies did the Iranian hold hostage last year? The year before that? What's their record on hostage taking lately?
Nope, no one's waving the bloody shirt.
Wow. That's so amazing dude. What with them not having a nuclear weapons program at all. Or at least, not having an actual nuclear weapons program that anyone has been able to detect or conclusively prove.
Are the factions equally unanimous on Iran continuing its magical unicorn program? Or is there less of a consensus on other imaginary programs?
Bit of a problem there, wouldn'cha agree? It's true that Iran does have a civilian nuclear program, and is operating that program within the terms of the non-proliferation treaty. It's also true that some aspects of the civilian technology that they are pursuing and developing could be applied for military purposes. But a nuclear weapons program? No.
Still, I suppose we could be fair to Seth and say that what he really means is that the Iranian factions are unanimously in favour of a civilian nuclear power program, which at some point, might allow the hypothetical possibility of a military nuclear weapons program.
But as for unanimity of factions on the subject of proceeding to nuclear weapons? Nope, don't see it.
Ahminajad (sic) has several times stated publicly that his government has no desire and no wish for nuclear weapons.
And Supreme Ayatollah Khameini, who Seth makes much of, has publicly condemned nuclear weapons as 'un-Islamic.' Which poses a bit of a problem.
So, I'm not seeing the pro-nuclear weapons unanimity among Iranian factions. Sorry, Seth.
Given that Hezbollah was not actually established until 1985, I can only assume that Seth is attributing time travel capacities to either Hezbollah or Iran.
Do you think they use a time machine, or just slingshot around the sun really fast, like in Star Trek IV? Or maybe they use a time treadmill, like the Flash in comic books? A time tunnel? Fly backwards around the earth faster than the speed of light, like Superman?
Ah, what a strange world we live in. Still, I'll have to put aside these conjectures and simply observe that, Seth's assertion notwithstanding, there isn't any generally accepted conclusive proof that has lead to any broad consensus that Iran was behind the Marine camp bombing.
Yes, I know that there are conspiracy theorists who make the argument. Some of the same people, undoubtedly, who argue that Marilyn Monroe shot John F. Kennedy. Unfortunately, in both cases, these arguments have not reached the level of plausibility or general acceptance.
How does one kidnap a murder? A murder is an act. You can't kidnap an act. I suppose you could kidnap a murderer.
Ah, but don't mind me, I'm just having a bit of fun with Seth's continuing meltdown.
Obviously he means "kidnap and murder" and is simply applying to his grammar the same rigorous effort he employs on his logic. Far be it from me to complain or take cheap shots. All power to you, Seth!
I suppose I could take the time to look up the real facts on Buckley, but then again, is there a point. 1985? How about something in the 20th century?
Is Iran aiding the Taliban? Seriously. Is there any evidence for this from independent parties? Or is it coming from the same military/intelligence complex that got all hysterical about Iraq's wmds? From the same military/intelligence complex that makes all these threatening noises against Iran?
It strikes me that if Seth was to argue that our ally Pakistan is aiding the Taliban, or at least aiding and tolerating and entering into agreements with allies of the Taliban, I wouldn't argue with him. There's a lot of evidence of this, from a lot of independent sources, one of them being the Pakistani government.
But Iran invading the Taliban? A group of people who believe that Shia should be killed with the same knives used to ritually slaughter goats? I dunno. Something's fishy there.
But anyway, even if we were to take Seth's question seriously, I could off the top of my head think of at least three reasons why Iran would deal with the Taliban.
* Tit for Tat - The United States sponsors, trains, funds and arms baluchi terrorists who are raiding Iranian territory from safe havens in Pakistan.
* Undermining a Threat - The United States keeps talking regime change and military strikes (all options on the table) against Iran. Might be a good idea to keep them busy and off balance in some other country, particularly one they might stage attacks from.
* Heroin - Afganistan, since the US moved in, has returned to number one as the worlds largest producer of heroin. A lot of that heroin goes into Iran and central asia, creating huge social problems. Perhaps they're trying to stop drug trafficking.
There's probably more, but you know, that's how it goes. Seth asked what he thought was a rhetorical question. But really, it's hardly rhetorical.
Proof? Just for the record, I think Seth is being sly with us again. I think that Seth is distinguishing between 'fighters' and 'insurgents.'
Iran is heavily connected with the Badr brigades, the militia of the SCIRI and Dawa parties. The problem is that the Badr Brigades are not insurgents, and SCIRI and Dawa are on America's side.
It seems that Seth wants to beat up on Iran for training and funding our allies?
I assume Seth's point here is not so much that Iran is seeking regional hegemony, but is stealing the bread from out of Halliburton's mouth?
More than Israel's randomly bombing the crap out of the country destabilized Lebanon?
As I understand it, Hezbollah as a political party in Lebanon is involved in some sort of ongoing political constitutional crisis which still needs to be worked out... but that's a far cry from destabilization. So far, no one in Lebanon is restarting the civil war.
I'm confused. Are Hezbollah and Iran separate entities or not. Sometimes Seth refers to them as if they're separate, sometimes he refers to them as one and the same.
Is a Lebanese Hezbollah member automatically an Iranian secret agent? Do they get dual citizenship? Double super secret decoder rings? Questions, questions.
I note that the United States has approximately 20,000 insurgents or potential enemy collaborators or combatants in custody. So one Lebanese Hezbollah member would amount to 0.0001 of that number.
It's estimated that there may be as many as 100,000 insurgents. So that one Lebanese Hezbollah member would represent perhaps 0.00002 of the insurgency?
Wow.
And after four years of occupation, hundreds of thousands of acts of resistance, tens upon tens of thousands of insurgents, the United States has been able to capture how many Iranian agents?
One.
Which Seth says, points to an active Iranian hand in proceedings.
And he's actually Lebanese.
Ouch!
You know, I think that Seth's real message is that if the Iranians are that good, we might as well throw in the towel now and all start learning Farsi. If they're that good, they don't need nuclear weapons.
Ah, but I'm just gently funnin' with our pal, Seth. I love him like a brother, or sister, as the case may be, and I hope he takes my lightheartedness in the happy go lucky spirit with which its offered. There's a need for the sort of truth that Glen speaks. And equally, there's a need for the sort of whatever that Seth comes out with. Yin and yang, black and white, batman and robin, Ghandi and RuPaul. It's all part of the cosmic balance.
I for one, am eagerly awaiting Seth's next rumination on what to do about those Klingons. I hear that they've got photon torpedos. That's just bad news.
July 3, 2007 8:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
aMike, I have to say that I really enjoy your posts and think that your comments are almost invariably trenchant and insightful.
But you're colouring outside the lines here, brother. Don't you go harshing on my pal, Seth. There's no need to get into ironic reflections on Seth's personal history or political stances.
The issue, is not Seth. The issue should never be Seth. The issue should never be about any of us personally, who we are or where we come from.
It's about what Seth writes.
So lay off the poor idjit, or he'll get a bad impression.
Personally, I welcome Seth to TPM. I hope that he posts often. I plan to enjoy Seth.
;)
July 3, 2007 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
"My view is that Iran is a threat"
Valdron seems to think (if I might paraphrase) that this statement is BS, based on the evidence.
I agree wholeheartedly.
It's not only BS, it sounds suspiciously like Seth is a Lieberman/AIPAC agent.
July 3, 2007 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why is Chomsky "exhibit one in the case against academics writing outside their field."? And what is your field, may I ask? Is it 'academics analysis' by any chance?
July 3, 2007 9:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dude, seriously? I didn't realize there were so many Chomsky apologists here. I'll try to restrain myself.
For example, I won't say that the guy is a complete joke. I won't say that he is a hair-brained conspiracy theorist. I won't say that he is a insane ideologue. I won't say that he is a ridiculous caricature of the left.
Yeah, I'll watch what I say.
July 3, 2007 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
I failed at the Berlitz school of irony, what can I say? I didn't fail at the Berlitz school of blather, so let me give a concise version of my points. Believe it or not, I wasn't being ironic in any of them.
aMike
as a postcript I took notice of how you enjoyed him, and I'm looking forward to enjoying you enjoy him. :-)
July 3, 2007 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
And among those factions, there is unanimity on a few central points: Iran must continue to develop its nuclear weapons program, Iran must exert dominance throughout the region, ultimately, Israel must be destroyed (I’m sure we’ll get more into this later), and, finally, Iran must become the dominant power in the Muslim world (hence, the importance of destroying Israel).
Mr. Gittel, could you please be more specific here about precisely which Iranian government statements you have in mind with respect to the need to develop a nuclear weapons program, the goal of dominance in the region and the goal of dominance in the Muslim world? Statements from fairly recent history would be most appreciated.
Yet while the country as a whole is different than the conventional wisdom here, we should have no illusions about who is running Iran, the "Supreme Leader", Ayatollah Khamenei, the Revolutionary Guards, and its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
This seems a bit too simple to me. My understanding, and admittedly that is only based on a limited amount of reading, is that governmental powers in Iran are quite distributed and complex, with various ministries, the Expediency Council, the Council of Guardians and the Majlis - along with the three power centers you mention - often pulling in contrary directions and checking the freedom of action of the other bodies.
Iran had a revolution in 1979. As with most cases of revolutionary regimes, they carried out a very revolutionary brand of foreign politics in the early years, but since then have have come more and more to resemble a normal state pursuing its national interest in conventionally intelligible terms. It has opened up tremendously to develop more normal relations with countries all over the world, except the US which still prefers a policy of sanctioning and isolating Iran. That doesn't mean that there is nothing left to be worried about, but I don't think the situation is as worrisome as you portray it.
In my opinion, it would be a bad thing if Iran developed nuclear weapons. It is a bad thing when nuclear weapons are proliferated to any state that did not have them before, particularly in the Middle East. The US and other countries should follow a policy of promoting a de-nuclearized Middle East. And we should constructively engage with Iran to hammer out agreements on a series of outstanding issues of concern to both countries.
However, if Iran were to develop real nuclear weapons, their arsenal would be small, and there is no reason to think that they could not be deterred in the usual way from using them.
I think what is really going on at this point in history is this: Iran is clearly an emerging power, and is playing an increasingly important role in it's region and the world. It seems rational and inevitable that the US and Iran will eventually move toward rapprochement and better relations. But the US already has friends in the region. As Iran's influence on US policy grows, the influence of current friends will decline in relative terms. Those friends are thus fighting back diplomatically to preserve their hold on US policy in the region, and their special relationships. The Saudis have been particularly aggressive about calling on their long-time allies in US government circles to mount and organize an anti-Iran propaganda campaign. Israel has joined in as well. But my guess is that these are just the growing pains of an evolving regional balance of power, and will be seen to be so from the perspective of a not-too-distant future.
July 3, 2007 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Awesome post, Valdron. The bit about time travel really made me laugh, and the decoder rings was a nice touch.
I've really come to the point where I believe that people ought to be ridiculed for believing stupid shit. Glad to see others are there with me.
July 3, 2007 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Incidentally, the real facts on William Buckley are that he was apparently tortured, but died of pneumonia.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Francis_Buckley
http://www.arlingtoncemetery.net/wbuckley.htm
July 3, 2007 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
. . .and continue to avoid evidence. It's your unsubstantiated opinions we crave!
July 3, 2007 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
What would Iran do with a nuclear weapon?
I'd worry more about nuclear armed Pakistan.
July 3, 2007 1:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Imagine if the Arab world had the same public relations/propoganda machine that the USA and Israel have today when Israel first started arming up with nukes.
And, no, I have no problem with a nuclear armed Israel, nor a nuclear armed Iran for that matter.
July 3, 2007 1:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I generally agree with your point, a Jihadist desire for death/ascension is different than communist fanaticism because of the religious change. Same with China.
It's a greater threat because we are far far weaker after the Bush years that we have been in a long time and because most of our "friends" think we are morons and wouldn't mind if we suffered a little bit.
July 3, 2007 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Official policy is blanket support of Israel, or something near to it. As long as that policy remains in effect threats to Israel become threats to our interest (which equates with us).
July 3, 2007 2:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
He makes assertions in the field of linguistics and leaves it to others to find data to prove or disprove his hypothesis often refusing to engage (his comments on the Piraha recursion).
July 3, 2007 2:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most of these points in Seth's post have been debunked in this great article here (link)
For example, note Seth's incantation about Iran's approaching "ability" to produce a nuclear weapons...
More sources on the Iran nuclear issue: Project of Defense Alternatives
July 3, 2007 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
In vulgar but more honest language: "Them n*gg*rs is KRAZY! KAAA-RAZY I tells you! No telling what dey gonna do! Dey be KRAZY in de haid!"
Yeah, sure, whatever. Truth of the matter, heavy ideological indoctrination, and patriotic hysteria has proven to be as or more efficacious at motivating suicidal behaviour by individuals or groups than mere religious fervour.
Both the CIA and KGB and various special forces were under certain circumstances indoctrinated to suicide upon capture. Suicide missions of one sort or another, sometimes deliberate, sometimes through inept leadership, are a staple of American and European military history. Japan, for its part initiated the Kamikaze, not as a religious program, but a patriotic one. Both Germans and Russians showed suicidal ferocity in WWII. Vietnamese during their war also expressed their political views in the form of suicide, and not necessarily for religious purposes.
Moreover, its difficult if not impossible to say that a religion which generally discourages suicide, is less likely to produce kill crazy suicide machines than one which ostensibly encourages it. Both Christianity and Judaism, for instance, discourage suicide as a means of solving problems, but are fairly approving of death incurred fighting or struggling for a good cause. Christianity in particular has a long history of Martys, some of them quite violent, while Judaism has Masada.
While there may be some extremist muslim groups who are quite bought into the notion of killing themselves (and lots of other people) as a way into heaven, the key is that they are extremist and deviant. But then, the Solar Temple and People's Temple have shown even more dramatic suicidal tendencies.
Current studies on suicide bombers have tended to show that the vast majority are not religiously motivated at all. The guys who hijacked the planes on 9/11 spent their last day in a lap dance bar. Rather, they are motivated and energized by political beliefs. The strongest of these is repelling a foreign invader from home territory where there are no other viable means of resistance.
Personally, I see this whole 'dat n*gg*r is KAH-RAAZY!!!' or if you'd prefer 'Jihadist desire for death/ascension' as a dangerous and misleading attitude on several levels.
First, it lends itself all too easily to racism and propaganda, by characterizing the Muslim as a fundamentally different and alien creature. The Muslim becomes a being unlike ourselves, whose motivations and actions are both alien, inscrutable and relentlessly dangerous. The image of rational actors making decisions is replaced with the image of subhuman slavering hordes, climbing over border fences, bodies wrapped in dynamite, wild eyed and searching for the nearest Dairy Queen full of children. While its a very exciting image, its not helpful.
Second, it creates a false sense of singularity and a-historicity. The notion is that these 'KRAZY n*gg*rs' or 'death crazed Jihadists' are something unprecedented and unique. The communists weren't this bad! The Nazi's weren't this bad! The Kaiser wasn't this bad! The Confederacy wasn't this bad! And so on down the line. The idea is that because our 'death crazed jihadists' pose an altogether new and novel threat, never seen before, they are much more dangerous than previous adversaries and this then allows the discussion to enter unprecedented and bizarre directions. Brutal options become thinkable. Torture? 'We have to torture them n*gg*rs, they is KAH-RAZYY!!' Bombing civlian populations cities in countries under American occupation? 'We have to do it, these death crazed Jihadists won't be stopped otherwise.' Rape rooms, Mass Murder, Secret Prisons, Preventative War, War of Choice, War of Conquest, Nuclear Options, Genocide... all becomes thinkable or desirable, where it was clearly unacceptable in the cold war... because 'Everything is different now, we facing KAH-RAZY n*gg*rs/suicide worshipping Jihadists, who are not rational like the old Communists and who are liable to do anything!'
Finally, this sort of bumper sticker mentality becomes an excuse to avoid thinking about the larger picture. Slap a KRAZY label on, we don't have to think about who these people are, where they come from, what motivates them, and how their agenda, tactics and strategy are shaped. This is, in my view, disastrous. Such superficial thinking makes for good television or parlour room pontification, but in the real world, when you have an enemy you beat that enemy by understanding their strengths and weaknesses, by assessing their resources, and anticipating their agenda, tactics and strategy.
July 3, 2007 3:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Jihadist desire for death/ascension is different than communist fanaticism"
And what the hell does that have to to with Tehran?
I'm sorry: what the fuck does that have to do with Tehran?
Do you think every Islamist is like Al Qaeda? You must, otherwise you wouldn't say something so god damned stupid.
Do some research on Hezbollah or Hamas. On Iran at least.
Here. Here's a nice clean official college professor for you to read
Read him every day. You want more? I've got a long list. I'll send it along.
July 3, 2007 4:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Good thing you won't say that. He's not a conspiracy theorist--that's stupid. Unless you count thinking that the Iraq War wasn't fought for noble reasons and that you can't believe the what the US government says as "conspiracy theorizing". Then yeah, that there Noam is one crazy dude.
July 3, 2007 6:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have it reversed I'm afraid. Chomsky's rationalism renders his linguistic arguments absurd, but it's allowed him to remain quite clearheaded about the actions of politicians.
July 3, 2007 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
oh you two...
get a room!
July 3, 2007 9:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I got tons of 'em.
July 3, 2007 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for the heads-up.
July 3, 2007 9:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're welcome. By the way, I expect all your comments to be well documented. I'll be very disappointed if you don't have footnotes and an index.
July 3, 2007 11:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not only BS, it sounds suspiciously like Seth is a Lieberman/AIPAC agent.
Unsubstantiated opinion!
The HORROR! THE HOOOORRRROOORRR!
July 3, 2007 11:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: a Jihadist desire for death/ascension is different than communist fanaticism because of the religious change.
In every ideological cause you can always find some number of True beliecvesr who will sacrifice their lives for that cause, whether there's an afterlife involved or not. Japanese Shinto has no formal Heaven or Karma concept but that did not deter the Kamikazees. And China produced enough fanatical warriors to bog us down in Korea. However the leaders of such movements are almost never suicidal, and the Iarnian Mullahs give every indication that they enjoy the perks of power and are in no hurry to ascend to the heavenly courts of Allah.
Re: It's a greater threat because we are far far weaker after the Bush years
On this I agree with you entirely.
Re: Christianity in particular has a long history of Martys, some of them quite violent
Can you cite some of these "violent" martyrs? The ones I am familiar with are always depicted in their legends as going to their deaths unresisting, indeed they were the next closest thing to pacifists. (Yes, I know, there were some Roman legionnaires, in legend at least, who presumably were not pacifists. St George of dragon fame. The arrow-pierced St Sebastian. The lovers Sts. Sergius and Bacchus. But soldiering was their occupation. They were not violent for religion's sake. Unlike some of our latter-day Islamic "martyrs" they did not take anyone out with them)
July 4, 2007 5:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
What you do, to go back to the original question, is to use the kinds of thing Greenwald talks about to negotiate with and pressure Iran so that it gives up the idea of nuclear weapons (if indeed that is really the case) before it gets them.
I know that many would rather scare themselves with fantasies and wring their hands about what a terrible world it could be, but it's going to be a long time before Iran has a nuclear weapon, and we need some good thinking and negotiating NOW!
July 4, 2007 5:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's funny because them godless commie pinko bastards were always so scary because they weren't religious. The power of propaganda.
July 4, 2007 8:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course I won't do that, that's silly. But I do expect you to ask me to back up my statements if you have cause to question them. Reality rules, as Seth learned (I hope) on his visit to this site.
July 4, 2007 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"But I do expect you to ask me to back up my statements "
Then do so.
July 4, 2007 9:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
And what's your problem, specifically?
July 4, 2007 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
A very wise person once said to me:
"Get a room, you too."
I think it applies here.
July 4, 2007 1:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
My problem?
My problem is with all these short comments I got twisted around and thought I was responding to Reece.
July 4, 2007 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I agree generally, do not assume that a Communist fanaticism never formed suicidal ideas. North Korean special forces and intelligence personnel repeatedly killed themselves rather than be captured. For whatever reason, the incidence of that was probably higher than any adversary except Japan.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
July 4, 2007 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, one thing's for sure, WE KNOW WHAT IRAN IS GOING TO DO WHEN THEY GET NUKES, because their leaders have been telling us for the past few years. Instead of giving any of my own opinions about what they may do with nuclear weapons, just let me supply some newspaper articles quoting Iranians themselves. If you have a problem with these quotes, don't blame me, these are NOT my words or opinions!
Last Updated: 12:12am GMT 19/02/2006 (Telegraph-UK)
Iran's hardline spiritual leaders have issued an unprecedented new fatwa, or holy order, sanctioning the use of atomic weapons against its enemies.
In yet another sign of Teheran's stiffening resolve on the nuclear issue, influential Muslim clerics have for the first time questioned the theocracy's traditional stance that Sharia law forbade the use of nuclear weapons.
[Missiles beside a portrait of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei]
One senior mullah has now said it is "only natural" to have nuclear bombs as a "countermeasure" against other nuclear powers, thought to be a reference only to America and Israel.
The pronouncement is particularly worrying because it has come from Mohsen Gharavian, a disciple of the ultra-conservative Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, who is widely regarded as the cleric closest to Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Nicknamed "Professor Crocodile" because of his harsh conservatism, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi's group opposes virtually any kind of rapprochement with the West and is believed to have influenced President Ahmadinejad's refusal to negotiate over Iran's nuclear programme.
The comments, which are the first public statement by the Yazdi clerical cabal on the nuclear issue, will be seen as an attempt by the country's religious hardliners to begin preparing a theological justification for the ownership - and if necessary the use - of atomic bombs.
Posted August 10, 2006 | 06:27 PM (EST) (Huffington Post)
Never before or since in world history has a tyrannical regime sought to murder all of the members of a particular racial, religious, ethnic or cultural group, regardless of where they live--not until now. Hezbollah's aim is not to "end the occupation of Palestine," or even to "liberate all of Palestine." Its goal is to kill the world's Jews. Listen to the words of its leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah: "If Jews all gather in Israel, it will save us the trouble of going after them worldwide." (NY Times, May 23, 2004, p. 15, section 2, column 1.) Nasrallah is one of the most admired men in the Muslim and Arab world today. Hitler made similar threats in Mein Kampf but they were largely ignored. Nasrallah has a reputation for keeping his promises.
His genocidal goals--to kill all Jews--were proven by two recent statements. He has warned the Arabs and Muslims to leave Haifa so that his rockets can kill only Jews. And he apologized for causing the deaths of three Israeli-Arabs in Nazareth, when a Katuysha struck that religiously mixed Israeli city. Hezbollah also worked hand-in-hand with Argentine neo-Nazis to blow up a Jewish community center, murdering dozens of Jews.
Nasrallah is a modern day Hitler, who currently lacks the capacity to carry out his genocide. But he is an ally of Iran, which will soon have the capacity to kill Israeli's five million Jews. Listen to what the former President of Iran has said about how Iran would use its nuclear weapons:
Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president of Iran, has threatened Israel with nuclear destruction, boasting that an attack would kill as many as five million Jews. Rafsanjani estimated that even if Israel retaliated by dropping its own nuclear bombs, Iran would probably lose only fifteen million people, which he said would be a small "sacrifice" from among the billion Muslims in the world.
Now listen to the current President of Iran, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who denies the Nazi Holocaust, but calls for a modern Holocaust that would "wipe Israel off the map."
Despite these anti-Semitic and genocidal threats, some of the hard left admire Nasrallah and his bigoted organization, as well as Iran and its anti-Semitic president. Others do not seem to take his threats seriously.
For example, the notorious Jewish anti-Semite Norman Finkelstein has said, "looking back my chief regret is that I wasn't even more forceful in publicly defending Hezbollah against terrorist intimidation and attack."
Finkelstein's hatred of Jews runs so deep that he has actually implied that his own mother, who survived the Nazi Holocaust, may have collaborated with the Nazis. If so, collaboration with evil seems to run in the family, because Finkelstein has clearly become a collaborator with Hezbollah anti-Semitism and Nazism. Finkelstein's website is filled with Hezbollah promotion, including breathless reprints of Nasrallah speeches. Noam Chomsky, who works closely with Finkelstein, has said of Finkelstein that he is "a person who can speak with more authority and insight on these topics [Israel and anti-Semitism] than anyone I can think of."
The Iran-Hezbollah axis is the greatest threat to world peace, to Jewish survival, to western values, and to civilization. Those like Finkelstein, who support Hezbollah, and even those who refuse to fight against this evil, are on the wrong side of history. They are collaborators with Islamo-fascists--today's version of Nazism.
July 4, 2007 10:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like the lunatic fringe is out.
July 4, 2007 10:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Looks like the lunatic fringe is out.
When you refer to the "lunatic fringe" are you talking about the guy who posted these quotes from the Iranian leadership "verbatim." Or are you trying to say that this guy who quoted these quotes is considered "the lunatic fringe for quoting them "verbatim?"
Fanitcal, radical Iranians have spoken and we have to listen to their quotes "as they have spoken them?" To criticise the man who prints those quotes is unbelievably "ignorant," you fu**ing douchbag. This guy specifically said that he was just quoting news stories without any opinion! If you don't agree with his posting Iranian news, and you don't agree with the Iranians who MADE THOSE QUOTES, you are an idiot! I can never figure out why people in America fail to listen to the Iranian's quotes and take them verbatim. Is it just wishful thinking that they are peaceful or are you just full of asshole ignorance?
July 4, 2007 11:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I totally agree with you Bill B. & Valdron that the Iranians are the "lunatic fringe," and are out to start the apocalypse that will begin WW3. The U.S., the U.N., the E.U. and NATO should do everything in their power to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Period.
Iran, the ultra-fascist Islamist nation is definitely hell-bent on making war with the West and starting Armageddon. Since 1979, the radical Muslims in Iran have been looking for an excuse to go to war with the West. We need to stop them as soon as possible, or risk global nuclear war!
July 5, 2007 12:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm hearing some extreme positions on both sides of the issue, with the truth not always black and white.
There are individuals in Hizbollah and the Iranian government that unquestionably have made extreme statements. In some cases, there have been reports that translation may not be quite correct. Ahminijad's and other threats have been translated variously as a desire to wipe out the state of Israel, or against all Jews.
The structure of power elites in Iran needs to be understood. Even if a close clerical advisor to their President has genocidal ideas, the President of Iran does not control their military. The military comes under their Supreme Leader, Khateimi.
By no means are their clerics stating one position. Some indeed appear to be genocidal, while Khateimi has spoken against nuclear weapons.
It is clear that deliverable nuclear weapons are not imminent, although a small number could be, in a number of years. Such proliferation needs to be monitored, as policies developed, but the threat is certainly not as immediate as from North Korea, Israel, Pakistan or India -- all non-NPT nuclear states.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
July 5, 2007 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
"While I generally agree with your point, a Jihadist desire for death/ascension is different than communist fanaticism because of the religious change. Same with China. It's a greater threat because we are far far weaker after the Bush years that we have been in a long time and because most of our "friends" think we are morons and wouldn't mind if we suffered a little bit."
Nonsense!
Terrorized by 'War on Terror'-How a Three-Word Mantra Has Undermined America
By Zbigniew Brzezinski , Washington Post, March 25, 2007
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/03/23/AR2007032301613.html
[...]
To justify the "war on terror," the administration has lately crafted a false historical narrative that could even become a self-fulfilling prophecy. By claiming that its war is similar to earlier U.S. struggles against Nazism and then Stalinism (while ignoring the fact that both Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia were first-rate military powers, a status al-Qaeda neither has nor can achieve), the administration could be preparing the case for war with Iran. Such war would then plunge America into a protracted conflict spanning Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan and perhaps also Pakistan.
[...]America today is not the self-confident and determined nation that responded to Pearl Harbor; nor is it the America that heard from its leader, at another moment of crisis, the powerful words "the only thing we have to fear is fear itself"; nor is it the calm America that waged the Cold War with quiet persistence despite the knowledge that a real war could be initiated abruptly within minutes and prompt the death of 100 million Americans within just a few hours. We are ...potentially very susceptible to panic in the event of another terrorist act in the United States itself.
That is the result of five years of almost continuous national brainwashing on the subject of terror...In his latest justification for his war in Iraq, President Bush even claims absurdly that he has to continue waging it lest al-Qaeda cross the Atlantic to launch a war of terror here in the United States.
The entertainment industry has also jumped into the act. Hence the TV serials and films in which the evil characters have recognizable Arab features, sometimes highlighted by religious gestures, that exploit public anxiety and stimulate Islamophobia. Arab facial stereotypes, particularly in newspaper cartoons, have at times been rendered in a manner sadly reminiscent of the Nazi anti-Semitic campaigns. Lately, even some college student organizations have become involved in such propagation, apparently oblivious to the menacing connection between the stimulation of racial and religious hatreds and the unleashing of the unprecedented crimes of the Holocaust.
The atmosphere generated by the "war on terror" has encouraged legal and political harassment of Arab Americans... Some House Republicans recently described CAIR members as "terrorist apologists" who should not be allowed to use a Capitol meeting room for a panel discussion.
The record is even more troubling in the general area of civil rights. ...Someday Americans will be as ashamed of this record as they now have become of the earlier instances in U.S. history of panic by the many prompting intolerance against the few....For Muslims, the similarity between the rough treatment of Iraqi civilians by the U.S. military and of the Palestinians by the Israelis has prompted a widespread sense of hostility toward the United States in general.
It's not the "war on terror" that angers Muslims watching the news on television, it's the victimization of Arab civilians. And the resentment is not limited to Muslims. A recent BBC poll of 28,000 people in 27 countries that sought respondents' assessments of the role of states in international affairs resulted in Israel, Iran and the United States being rated (in that order) as the states with "the most negative influence on the world." Alas, for some that is the new axis of evil!
The events of 9/11 could have resulted in a truly global solidarity against extremism and terrorism. A global alliance of moderates, including Muslim ones, engaged in a deliberate campaign both to extirpate the specific terrorist networks and to terminate the political conflicts that spawn terrorism would have been more productive than a demagogically proclaimed and largely solitary U.S. "war on terror" against "Islamo-fascism." ...Where is the U.S. leader ready to say, "Enough of this hysteria, stop this paranoia"? Even in the face of future terrorist attacks, the likelihood of which cannot be denied, let us show some sense.
July 5, 2007 12:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Howard,
if I remember correctly, during the Reagan years there were some in his administration, and perhaps Reagan himself, who were speaking positively of a limited nuclear war. Fast forward to today and Ahmadinejad and you see the difference in how well some propoganda has advanced as the Reagan limited nuclear war was not given the degree of condemnation and paranoia you see with Ahmadinejad. Maybe Ahmadinejad is getting so much condemnation and press because he threatened Israel and not Russia?
What would Ahmadinejad do with a nuke if he had one?
Is the idea of Ahmadinejad dropping a nuke on Israel any worse than our destruction of Iraq? ( I condemn both )
July 5, 2007 5:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
.
sPh
July 5, 2007 5:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry Unahomer. You seem to have misread me.
I said that Bill B. was the lunatic fringe. I'm inclined to lump you in that category as well. ;)
Have a nice day.
July 5, 2007 6:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me be very clear here. When I referred to "lunatic fringe" I referred to Bill B., the guy who, as you put it, "quoted these quotes."
I may be an unbelievably "ignorant" fucking douchebag, fair call. But at least I can spell 'fanatical.'
I know, lol, cheap shot. But what can you expect from someone full of asshole ignorance. ;)
Still, it's not wishful thinking on my part that had me actually reading Bill B.'s quotable quotes, and casting a harsh and thoughtful scrutiny upon same. If you had bothered to read them yourself, you might have noticed the following:
* It's now well established that Ahminajad never said 'wipe Israel off the map.' That seems to be a deliberate mistranslation of his statements for propaganda purposes. What he actually said was "the regime which occupies Israel shall vanish from the pages of history." First, it's a call for regime change rather than genocide. The United States calls for regime change regularly against all sorts of countries. The voice is passive, he never suggests that Iran will or has any duty to make it happen, merely that regime change will occur inevitably as a historical process. Finally, he's not even expressing it as his own position, but merely quoting the deceased Ayatollah Khomeini, so he's making a literary reference. All of this has been well established over and over again. So I've got no particular patience for those who recycle false and inflammatory propaganda.
* In any case, that's the closest that any of the quoted passages come to actually quoting any actual Iranians... a very deliberate propagandistic mistranslation. Interestingly, the Washington Post article doesn't even spend much time on what Ahminajad said, preferring to dwell on 'International outrage.'
* By the way, the Washington Post is not, as you claim "Iranian news."
* The second quoted passage isn't attributed to any source. I sincerely doubt that it is "Iranian news." The passage says "The closest we've come to a messianically inclined leader in America was a secretary of the interior who 24 years ago"
* The thrust of that passage is that Ahminajad is a crazy religious fanatic who believes in the end times... Unlike Ronald Reagan and members of his Cabinet and Staff, who repeatedly expressed a belief that they were living in the end times. And unlike George W. Bush's supporters, many of whom believe that they are living in end times and in fact seeking to bring about those end times.
* In respect of that passage, why should I trust self-serving American propaganda which is not "Iranian news" does not "quote Iranian leaders" and is in fact obviously biased and incorrect, with a sloppy view of America's own history? Why can't I just call it bunk and wipe my ass with it?
* Now let's take a look at the third quotably quoted passage of Iranian news quoting Iranian leaders. Once again, on examination, more turns out to be so, so, so much less.
* What's the official Iranian position, as reported here by that notable Iranian News Agency, The Telegraph UK: " the theocracy's traditional stance that Sharia law forbade the use of nuclear weapons."
* And what has happened to that stance? "One senior mullah has now said it is "only natural" to have nuclear bombs as a "countermeasure" against other nuclear powers, thought to be a reference only to America and Israel." So, instead of advocating unilateral genocide, the statement is that they would be for deterrent purposes? Deterrence against countries which are already threatening to use nuclear weapons against Iran? Oh my, the horror.
* But get this: "The pronouncement is particularly worrying because it has come from Mohsen Gharavian, a disciple of the ultra-conservative Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, who is widely regarded as the cleric closest to Iran's new president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad." Okay, talk about ridiculous bullshit. So this 'controversial' statement doesn't come from Ahmadinejad. It doesn't come from Ayatollah Khameini. It doesn't even come from Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi. It doesn't even come from any Ayatollah. Where it comes from is a second or third tier student of a fringe Ayatollah who may be pals with a politician. Gotcha. So this is the Iranian equivalent of 'I know of a guy who is a friend of a friend of a friend...' Hmmm, what does Richard Gere's hairdresser's neighbor's pool cleaner think about all this? In short, what trite and misleading hysterical bullshit.
* Bill B's final "quote" comes from the Huffington Post, yet another "Iranian News Source" quoting "Iranian Leaders" in "their own words." Yeah right.
* Most of the Huffington Post seems to be an Ad hominem attack on Norman Finkelstein, an American academic and not an Iranian leader.
* Mr. Finkelstein's principal sin seems to be that he's had a run in with noted torture advocate, Libby apologist, and war crimes defender Allan Dershowitz. I'd bet that this screed has less to do with Iran than Mr. Dershowitz's penchant for vendetta.
* The 'quote' makes much of Nasrallah, who is described as 'another Hitler.' Well, as much as someone could be 'another Hitler' who lacks the resources of a pre-eminent industrial state to conquer a continent and start a war which encompasses the planet. No hysterical overstatement here, no sir.
* The only problem with Nasrallah is that he is not an Iranian leader. He is a Lebanese politician/movement leader who commands a small guerilla militia. His statements and views, or statements and views attributed to him do not necessarily reflect the views of Iranian leadership.
* The 'quote' then goes on to refer to the now exploded and discredited 'wipe off the map' thing from Ahminajad. All that's left after that is some hysterical ranting and some unattributed, undated, unquoted reference to something that Rafsanjani may or may not have said.
So essentially, what Bill B. has presented to us, without comment, is a lot of hysterical nonsense, lies, misinformation, exaggeration.
But he did present a lot of it, putting up an extensive text of quotes.
This is typical of right wing lunatics. A usual course is to simply cut and paste errant nonsense. Saves them the typing, kills lots of space, and wears everyone down.
But what do I know? I'm just an unbelievably ignorant fucking douchebag idiot full of unbelievable asshole ignorance.
But as I've said, I know how to spell 'fanatical', I certainly know how to read, and I can smell bullshit... from you or from Bill B., a mile away.
And, Unahomer ol' pal, ol' buddy, that bullshit stinks to high heaven.
July 5, 2007 8:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Heh, this reminds me of the time Bush mentioned that "Saddam sought WMDlike materials."
WTF are WMDlike materials?
July 5, 2007 11:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Seth, how would this hostage holding play out?
Seth, regarding states arming themselves with nukes, delete the word "IRAN" above and insert the word "Israel"; does the comment still stand?
Seth, your concern about the well being of Saudi Arabia is puzzling as they might supply the plane Iran might need to drop "the bomb" on Israel.
Seth, were the Jews spying for Israel? You didn't say.
These questions may insinuate "anti semitic implications" to some, but trust me, they aren't, they're simply questions that arose as I read your commentary.
I'm more concerned with nuclear armed Pakistan which is one bullet or one bomb away from becoming Osama on steroids, than I am about Iran.
One other thing that concerns me; many who got us into the quagmire in Iraq are now saber rattling at Iran. All of these "suppose this...suppose that....what if this....what if that....", all of this conjuring up worst case scenarios seem to be pushing for a pre emptive strike against Iran. How many more American lives and limbs are Americans ready to sacrific on the "what ifs"?
Its deja vu all over again.
By the way, I believe nothing that comes out of this Bush administration, and not much more that comes from our military concerning, Iraq, al Qaeda, or Iran.
July 5, 2007 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Valdron says;
"I plan to enjoy Seth."
I'm not touching that with a 10' pole.
July 5, 2007 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thorougly fed up with Valdron and Howard who constantly use well thought out, well informed, in depth submissions, sprinkled with logic and common sense.
And their continual contribution of reality to these debates is just too much to bear, so.........
In the future I shall boycott reading anything these two malcontents offer!
"The masses have little time to think. And how incredible is the willingness of modern man to believe." Benito Mussolini
July 5, 2007 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
As they say in Warsaw, 10' Poles are treated much the same as 800-pound gorillas: any way they want.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
July 5, 2007 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
As I suffer the slings and arrows of submitting an ethics complaint to the Virginia Bar, it is even more frustrating to find Valdron, as an attorney, occasionally committing rationality.
In comparison with Bar discipline, the process of investigating medical misconduct is a pellucid pool of the purest water.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
July 5, 2007 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
RogerGathman
There's a certain odd logic to neo-con arguments. The argument in 2003 was that we would win in Iraq and could use that as a base to win in Iran. Real men, back then, wanted to go to Teheran. Now the argument is that we've lost in Iraq - so now we really need to go to Teheran.
Seth's case would be much better if he argued for what he assumes: that Iran wants to achieve hegemony in the Middle East, destroy Israel, and produce nuclear weapons - and if he didn't push obvious factoids, like the idea that Iran (instead of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia) is arming the Taliban.
When Iran was lead by Khomeini, whose phrase about wiping Israel off the face of the map was quoted by Ahmadinejad, Israel seemed to not only retain its sang froid, but engaged in massive arms trading with Iran. In fact, in the late 80s, Israel's prime minister was quoted as wishing that the U.S. would drop its objections to recognizing Iran. What happened?
Iraq ceased to be a threat is what happened.
There's no reason to believe that Iran has any of the goals that Seth attributes to them. Certainly there is no reason to believe that Iran is trying to wipe Israel off the map in any sense more serious than McCain's comment about bomb bomb bomb Iran means that the U.S. is actually going to bomb Iran. In both cases, it does indicate volatile and hostile sentiment. To prepare for a world in which Iran has a nuclear weapon, then, the U.S. should be meeting with Iran with carrots and sticks, including recognizing Iran and legalizing economic activity with Iran, in return for assurances about Israel. The U.S. shouldn't be posturing about bombing Iran, which makes no sense. Iran has firstly done nothing to the U.S. - or, I should say, nothing major - since the revolution in 1979 overthrew a government forced upon Iran by a U.S. sponsored and led coup. In the account book of acts "committed against", the U.S. is still in the red vis a vis Iran.
Since it would seem an obvious first solution that the U.S. should try to make Iran agree to not attack Israel, even if you believe Seth's list, why does he not even mention negotiation towards that goal? Is it that he is afraid that such negotiation might demand concessions from Israel? I think so. I think behind the hysteria about bombing Iran is the cold eyed calculation that anything is better than confronting the unviability of a situation in which Israel has to make concessions - such as evacuating the settlements on the West Bank and handing real authority over to the Palestinians. This would not be the end of Israel by any means, but it would be the end of one rightwing dream of Israel, a greater Israel that would, itself, have hegemony in the Middle East. There is a lot of projecting in Seth's picture of Iran - turn it about, and you get the behavior of Israel towards, say, its economic regional rival Lebanon.
The neocons run foreign policy theory like a crooked gambling house - they always win. But American foreign policy should not be about always winning, but adapting the best possible stance in the face of circumstances of limited power. We spend way too much time, money and blood in the Middle East - let's create a system that can take care of itself so that the U.S. is not incessantly intervening.
July 5, 2007 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Now, now, Howard, we'll have none of your pissy, poopy, pontifications!
July 5, 2007 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
<guffaw></guffaw> Another good'n.
aMike
July 5, 2007 5:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't speak for anybody else who has responded to the articles I posted without personal comment on this site, but I appreciate your insightful comments (except for your ad homonym attacks on me in order to attack the postings I made by making ME look foolish to undermine the facts I gave--a cheap form of fallacious logic).
On the other hand, I will not call you names or attack you personally since I respect your opinions; you make some very good arguments. But I do disagree with your opinions. I could have posted any one of 100 other news articles or direct quotes from the Iranian mullahs, President Ahmadinejad, or the leaders of Hezbollah who have all sincerely denied the Holocaust, threatened war with Israel and vowed to remove them from the map (however one wishes to interpret that).
And though you, who have never met me or do not know my political interests at all, have categorized me as a, "right wing lunatic" I can assure you that I have been a registered and voting Democrat for 38 years! I am not only afraid of Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons because they may want to, "Hasten the apocalypse." I am also terrified that that the present presidential administration and many conservative Congress people and Senators ALSO believe in a Christian version of the Apocalypse that BOTH sides may get crazy with nuclear weapons.
However, I fully believe that the U.S., Israel. Russia, China, Britain, etc. have had these weapons for decades and have shown restraint and we KNOW they will continue to show restraint if necessary. But Iran is an unknown factor! Given the radical, fanatical rhetoric that has been pouring out of Tehran for the last 25 years, we DO NOT KNOW if they are trustworthy with the BOMB and me or you or nobody can say for sure if they will be, and given the articles I posted I am convinced they are NOT trustworthy.
July 5, 2007 11:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
What, then, do you propose should be done? Here is a MIT study of a feasible but difficult Israeli strike to take out existing Iranian nuclear capability, if a little light on the plutonium side. Would you recommend an immediate strike of this type? I note that the US has capabilities, such as the B-2, that Israel does not.
Or do you recommend a multinational containment approach, combined with carrots for the more moderate (who still may be radical) elements of the Iranian government? What about better connecting to the Iranian people, where there are dissenting elements? -- Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
July 6, 2007 6:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Bill, Bill, Bill. Spam posting is a well known characteristic of extreme right wingers and trolls.
The idea is that trolls don't want to put the time and effort into making their point, and they aren't very articulate, so they just go around cutting long articles and rants from somewhere else which they agree with, and pasting them up here. The result is usually obnoxious, long, screeds.
It's lazy posting and its disrespectful to the rest of us.
If you don't want to be considered part of the lunatic fringe, then don't do what the lunatic fringe does.
It's not hard.
Go back and take a look at your own cut and pastes. Note how many of your own sources were unattributed and undated. That doesn't make you look good, and that was your own choice.
In fact, go back and take a hard look at at the segments you've posted. Seriously. Take a critical look. You'll find out that I'm right.
Bill, if I consider you in the most generous light, then I would have to say you are being victimized by deliberately misleading propaganda techniques. Not outright lies (well yes, you're being fed outright lies), but careful misrepresentations, shading of words, things deliberately pulled out of context that mean one thing or mean very little, which then get assigned unrealistic meanings, the whole thing blown up with hysterical fear.
Look, go back and take another look at that Mullah who said nuclear weapons should be on the table. Take a really hard look at that.
First off, who is this guy? Not an Ayatollah. So he isn't part of the real religious core. Not one of the big poo bahs. Not one of the decisive influential voices.
Nor is he part of any official government. So he's not expressing policy there.
So who is he?
Well, he appears to be a second or third tier Mullah. One of the disciples or hangers on for one of the Ayatollahs.
Which could mean anything from prospective Ayatollah-to-be, or it could mean that he's a glorified receptionist. We don't know.
But we are told that he's a disciple of Metzi-something, who is an extreme right wing Ayatollah. So this places him on Iran's ideological spectrum a bit better.
He's following an extreme right wing Ayatollah, and so we can assume that he's an even fringier right winger.
He's like some of the wackier Republican congressmen. Like that guy who had the cafetaria rename 'freedom fries.'
We normally don't pay attention to people like that, not even in the United States. They don't have a serious impact.
It's true that the guy he follows is pals with Ahminajad (sic)(I can never spell his name properly). But what does this mean in any practical sense? Does that translate into political power for either one of them. Doesn't seem to be so. And does that mean that a hanger on has more clout or is actually speaking for Iranians? Again, we got no proof and no support for that.
Has the Iranian government shifted its stance. Have the Iranian Mullahs and Ayatollahs shifted their stance. Or does this guy remain a loon crying in the wilderness?
If you're looking for a wacky guy, it's always easy to find a wacky guy and make him the poster boy for Iranian nuclear intentions.
But take a good hard look.
Is it really holding water? I'm asking. How representative is this guy? How much influence or power does he really have?
Not very and not much.
They've tried to pump him up by playing connect the dots. But even that exercise seems to reveal him as a fringe character.
Well, let's not take fringe characters too seriously.
Let's try to keep the focus on trying to figure out the people who are having the real debates over there and making the real decisions.
If all we do is focus on the scary wacky fringe characters, then really, all we get is scary wackiness.
Now, I'm using this as an example of the way you were lied to and manipulated. You took it at face value and were impressed enough to repost it here.
What I'm saying to you, is that they're doing you wrong, and you need to go back and take another look at these things. You need to pierce the veil of emotional rhetoric, or lies that are repeated so often they get treated as fact, of things that get blown up so they're turned into something else.
You need to do your own thinking, and you need to do it carefully, because they are lying to you.
What sort of rhetoric pours out of Iran? That's important to look at. But look at it carefully. Look at the rhetoric that pours out of America too (that Finkelstein attack is pretty vile).
And look at what people and countries are actually doing. Little dogs like to bark, it doesn't mean that they're wolves.
How's that. Now, I'm sorry I hurt your feelings. But it looked to me like you were being a troll, and as I get old and cranky, I got less and less patience. I'm assuming that you're being sincere and hasty. I'm just suggesting you be thoughtful and careful.
July 6, 2007 7:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
If I may add to this, in a spirit of trying to be helpful, it's worth considering the technological as well as the political aspects. :-) Valdron is in a poor position to say
when he is a citizen of a country that makes routine chem/bio attacks on innocent pommes frites, which they try to make innocent by calling poutine. The stuff may be radioactive as well, but it certainly clogs arteries at fifty paces.
Seriously, though, the first thing to consider is not the nuclear weapon itself, but how and where it could be delivered. While I don't suggest that their bomb would be equivalent to the US or USSR first generation fission devices, those were bulky and on the order of 4 metric tons. To put something on a missile of the Iranian Shahab-3 class, you need a compact warhead preferably about 0.5 metric tons. It can be somewhat heavier if you give up missile range and decoys.
I emphasize ballistic missiles here, as I cannot come up with a plausible scenario in which Iran could get an aircraft-delivered bomb, even in an airliner with suicidal pilots, to Israel. Israel also has some antimissile defenses (US Patriot PAC-3, and possibly Israeli-US Arrow). I see no plausible way that the Iranians could develop a missile that threatened the US for a good 20 years, and, while it is possible to conceal nuclear weapons development (e.g., Israel & South Africa), there's no way to conceal long-range missile tests.
Look at the MIT study I cited above, and carefully consider what is close to operational -- uranium enrichment. If you look at the history of miniaturized weapons that would work on missiles, the deployed systems were plutonium implosion, plutonium boosted fission, or thermonuclear. The status of the Iranian heavy water and plutonium facilities are better predictors of nuclear intent than uranium enrichment.
While it would be harder to detect, there are weapons-related facilities, such as hydrodynamic test labs, that would be a smoking gun if found.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
July 6, 2007 7:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
First of all we should all remember to buy and read Glenn Greenwald's book. Don't forget. Now, I'd like to present two great reasons to bomb Iran. The first is that we have a power-mad amoral Republican adminstration which made a bad mistake in 2006. They didn't succeed in caging enough Democratic voters to win the election. This has resulted in a number of bad consequences for them and they feel they must win in 2008. But all indications at this point are that they are going to lose. Attacking Iran is their wild card. I hope rogerwg is right and they are no more likely to attack Iran than a nuke-armed Iran would be to attack Israel, but I doubt it. Think of the consequences in each case. Think furthermore of the consequences for the Dem frontrunners if the US (or Israel for that matter) were to attack Iran. AIPAC would back HRC into such a corner that she would have no where to turn unless she alienated all her anti-Bush supporters. It would be a political bloodbath and that is reason enough to fear that Cheney will lead the attack.
The second and more important reason we should attack Iran is that the USA should carry out Israel's foreign policy. Isn't that what Condi's "transform the Middle East" is about? Bringing anti-Israel Middle-Easterners (which is just about all of them, after all) to their knees before the might of the sole super-power? The USA is Israel's big buddy and Israel has a "terrible neighborhood." It all sounded so good, those "secular Iraqis" who were going to deal more positively with Israel. Guess they turned out to be merely a figment of the neoconservative imagination. But no matter. Iraq is, after all, crippled. Let's go after Iran! Above all (as rogerwg suggested), let's clean up the neighborhood without any consessions from Israel that it doesn't already want to make. This is the genius of neoconservative influence among the Bushies. US to enforce the deal: no concessions by Israel, unlimited concessions by its opponents. Such a deal!
July 6, 2007 10:27 PM | Reply | Permalink