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What if China Works Wonders?

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The discussion has begun to turn to the final aspect of Josh’s book: the question of what the US should be doing in response to China’s growing international influence. As I have been studying China for the last few years, my thinking has moved from the view that the US should work to aggressively assert the appeal of democratic liberalism in order to counter China’s advances in the Third World to the more sanguine perspective that China’s rise could bring with it real benefits that the US should find a way to celebrate.

Viewed in the best light possible, American commitment to the values of democratic liberalism at home and abroad is predicated on the idealistic notion that it represents the most just and effective way to organize a society and its compact with government. Pragmatically, American foreign policy comes face-to-face today with new forms of governance that challenge various aspects of liberal democracy—such as Chinese-style illiberal capitalism, Latin American resource nationalism, and Islamic jihadism. When deciding how to interact with such alternative governance systems, most US policymakers hold the implicit view that they are simply not as sustainable, durable, or desirable as liberal democracy. Imagine if that assumption was meaningfully challenged by the increasing success of China’s governance model abroad.

Some of my Berkeley colleagues and I carried out a series of foreign policy workshops in a few major cities around the world earlier this year. And it became clear very quickly that other parts of the world have extremely different ideas about the resilience of alternative governance systems, their sources of strength, their comparative advantage versus democratic liberalism, and their attractiveness to the non-Western, developing world. [Closer to home, last week on TPM Cafe we saw the vigorous debate around the universality of American ideals provoked by Anne-Marie Slaughter’s new book.]

Our global participants saw the potential strengths of an alternative governance message that emphasizes the values of order and stability regardless of other ideological content over a narrative that proselytizes democracy and good governance. Many highlighted the attractiveness to the developing world of a message that places collective-oriented economic growth and poverty reduction front and center over individualistic political liberties. Indeed, many felt that a country—read: China—that could articulate a clear ideological stance around a message of economic success with stability would find willing followers in the rest of the world.

So consider the following hypothetical: China announces a unilateral program to improve basic health and education in sub-Saharan Africa, supported by massive unconditional grants and technical assistance on strategies of state-controlled capitalism to incumbent governments. And allow the possibility that the program’s results prove remarkable within five to ten years. How should the US respond to this? Should we applaud China’s success and encourage other countries to sign on to the Beijing Consensus on economic development? Or would American policymakers deem it necessary to counter China in this realm? Proponents of democratic liberalism who assert its universalism and the interdependence of its values to make their case are going to face gut-wrenching decisions when some of its goals are met at the expense of others. To put it simply: suppose China helps a country like Zimbabwe reduce child mortality and increase basic education enrollment. Is it enough for the US that such unarguably worthwhile goals are being achieved; or is it more important for the US that Zimbabwe reach such goals by following a liberal political-economic model?


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Naazneen, I saw your piece in "Democracy: A Journal of Ideas" last fall and was extremely struck by it. As a journalist based in Vietnam, I found it articulated some ideas that have been circulating in the journalistic community here for some time -- a sense that Western liberal democratic triumphalism was irrelevant to many of the political conversations that were going on in East Asian states, and that the China model was changing the ideological map on which such conversations took place. I actually noted it on my blog and said it was a really important piece, but then I didn't encounter too many people who'd read it.

But on this question, having spent several years in West Africa, I think that for ANY aid program in Africa, the likelihood that the "results prove remarkable within five to ten years" are fairly low. I think you're stacking the deck unnecessarily by including that condition. It is unclear to me what the substantial difference would be between nonconditional Chinese aid to state-controlled capitalist authoritarian regimes today, and nonconditional US or French aid to state-controlled capitalist authoritarian regimes in the Cold War era, which produced Mobutu, Houphouet-Boigny, and so forth. I mean, certainly, if China pumps a lot of aid money in for neglected areas like food security and medical care, then most likely we would see some improvement in those areas, but why should our attitude hinge on the question of whether aid is "remarkably successful"? I think a far likelier scenario is that it will produce the kind of inconsistent results that most big aid has historically produced, and the chief critique by Westerners will have to do not with the lack of tying to democratic reform but with a lack of sustainability, lack of monitoring and evaluation, failure to coordinate -- the kinds of failures big aid programs made universally in the '60s and 70s and have only begun to remedy today.

That said, it's conceivable that the Chinese could help some African states return to where they were in the '70s, with reasonable growth based on high export commodity prices, state controlled capitalist economies, and foreign aid shoring up authoritarian regimes to keep the peace and keep the rubber flowing. Certainly many Africans would be grateful for a return to the '70s. More broadly, prioritizing stability over democracy is a message that may sell well in Africa. But in highly tribalized societies, the mantra of "stability" is often invoked by champions of one tribe to justify keeping their boots on the necks of another. And, as with Mobutu, Houphouet-Boigny, Mugabe and so many others, such "stability" is not actually stability at all; it is the damming of resentments for the deluge.

Accumulating Peripherals

All well and good but so far China has behaved monstruously in Africa. Seriously criminal stuff.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

"behaved monstruously in Africa"

Some examples?

 

Check out Sebastian Junger's article in the current Vanity Fair. It's unfortunately not on line or I'd link to it.

Maybe later I'll go back through the print edition and print some quotations here, if I have time. But, it's worth reading the whole thing and the Africa issue is worth picking up.


thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

By the way, I'm a little shocked that so many people have asked me to explain myself about China's attrocities in Africa. Is it really debatable?

This is the country, after all, that has continued to oppress the people of Tibet. Back 15 years ago I remember that the freedom of Tibet was a liberal cause and something that made us question the morality of even trading with China.

I really wonder why there are so many China defenders all of the sudden?


thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

China may be more comfortable with their "below the radar" position in int'l politics. Historically, the country has never had that much interest in the rest of the world and has been somewhat insular.

A high profile China would welcome a lot of the attacks and criticism we endure on a daily basis, especially with regard to their human rights record, and has been pointed out -- their absolute assumption of mineral rights in many African countries.

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