Is Kurlantzick Behind the Curve?

It is impossible to think about international relations today without contemplating what the rise of China means to patterns of World Politics. Josh's book details one clear pathway through which China is exercising its influence -- the deployment of its economic power and soft power to win friends and influence people. The contrast with U.S. foreign policy in recent years could not be starker, and Kurlantzick deserves credit for writing an accessible and challenging book that takes on this topic.

A theme Josh makes in the first part of his book is that U.S. policymakers have been behind the curve in realizing the potency of China's new charm offensive. However, current events make me wonder if Kurlantzick is also behind the curve a little. Beijing is already beginning to suffer some blowback from its diplomatic offensive. The interesting question is where things go from here.

For one example of blowback, see this Christian Science Monitor story by Danna Harman on how the Sudeanese are reacting to Chinese foreign direct investment. A few samples:

Locals blame their lot on oppression by Sudan's Islamist government and the long war with the north. But they also blame the Chinese.

"[The Chinese] moved us away so we would not see what was going on. They were stealing our oil and they knew it," says Abraham Thonchol, a rebel-turned-pastor who grew up near Paloich. "Oil is valuable and we are not idiots. We were expecting something."....

"The Chinese simply do not care about us," says Martin Buywomo, Paloich's mayor. "They have no contact. They never even came to my tent to pay respects. They think we are lesser people." A member of the Shilluk tribe who attended British mission schools, Mr. Buywomo puts down the worn copy of George Eliot's 19th-century classic "Silas Marner" he is reading and continues sadly. "We see them in their trucks but they overlook us. If they saw us dying on the road, they would overlook us."

Buywomo rearranges the Chinese-made plastic pink flowers on his desk. "This is colonialism all over again."

Thabo Mbeki, for one, might not rush to correct such an impression. Last December, the South African president – whose country is Beijing's largest trading partner on the continent – cautioned against an unequal and "colonial relationship" with China.

Across the border, in neighboring Zimbabwe – a country that can ill afford to offend the few friends it has – Trevor Ncube, a respected newspaper publisher, devoted a recent issue of his Zimbabwe Standard to whether doing business with China was "merely swapping our old colonial master for a new one."

Perhaps most worrying for the Chinese is the grass-roots reaction to their advances in the southern African nation of Zambia.

China, the world's largest copper consumer, has pledged $800 million in investments in Zambia, one of the world's largest copper producers. Beijing has written off nearly $8 million of Zambia's debt and announced the establishment of a showcase free-trade zone which, according to China's ambassador to Zambia, will create tens of thousands of jobs.

Nonetheless, in the lead-up to Zambia's Sept. 28 elections, presidential candidate Michael Sata turned lack of safety at Chinese owned mines (50 Zambian mine workers were killed by an explosion in 2005) into a major campaign issue. Mr. Sata fumed about what he called the plunder of the country's mineral wealth and disregard for the environment – and promised to kick out the Chinese and recognize Taiwan if he won. He did not. But a few months later, Chinese President Hu Jintao cancelled a visit to the Zambian copper-mining town of Chambishi due to fear of mass demonstrations against him there.

This story suggests that although China's economic power is formidable, it does not necessarily translate into soft power. Other countries welccome Chinese investment and Chinese orders. Their populations, however, have not warmed to the Chinese all that much. Indeed, if anything, the reverse has been the case.

To be fair, the main focus of Charm Offensive is Southeast Asia, not Africa. The interesting question is whether what's happening in Africa right now is a harbinger of future blowback, or a misstep that Beijing will quickly correct.

I don't have a clear answer to this question, and I look forward to seeing if Josh has a cogent response. However, from an international relations perspective, one wonders if China's peaceful rise to date has less to do with their soft power and more to do with the rest of the world looking for someone to challenge U.S. hegemony. China certainly fits this bill. As governments and populations become aware of how China engages the world, however, it is quite possible that familiarity will breed contempt.


Comments (2)

I am coming late to this interesting discussion and have had a chance to read all the posted comments.

 

The question of whether China is trying to create an alternative order is an important one. As far as I can tell, if one believes what the Chinese write and say about their intentions, the first order of business is preventing a "Gorbachev" model. The CCP must stay in power. To do so it must be the only group in China seen as "safeguarding the interests of the Chinese people." It must grow its "comprehensive national power" (the Chinese term), reverse the century of humiliation, during which it lost Taiwan, and gradually re-take it position of centrality in Asia. Along the way, Beijing realized that it must engage in good neighborly relations in order to prevent a counter balancing coalition forming out of fear. And, it has become a net oil importer which has been a prime motivator if its presence on the world stage.

As I have written in a review of Josh's book, it is not so much "soft power" that Beijing in exercising in the sense that Joseph Nye defined it. Rather Beijing is exercising traditional, mostly non-military, forms of statecraft. These include economic payoffs and diplomatic protection for countries such as Sudan and Iran that are under pressure from the international community, in return for oil and gas.

China's "model" is not very new at all. It is following the export-led growth model of the Asian tigers. That model will certainly appeal to other countries to the degree it has been successful. The great hope of American policy is that like the Tigers before it (with the exception of Singapore) economic success will lead to democratic reform. The CCP and the some 62 million people in China who have done relatively well will resist this process.

It is hard to see what new norms China is encouraging at all. It is acting on mercantilist impulses with which a 19th century European power would be quite familiar: secure oil and gas deals, protect the supplier. China does not practice the so called norm of non-intervention. It intervenes in others' affairs all the time. Just ask the Australians about China's behavior in the Pacific islands. Ask the Prime Minister of Singapore after he returned from Taiwan. China would prefer that countries did not intervene in its own affairs which would include, in its own definition, Taiwan. It does not have much use for democracy promotion or humanitarian intervention for obvious reasons. It will certainly resist those "norms."

If China continues to succeed economically (and that success is not pre-ordained) and decides to pursue the more ambitious goal of re-taking its place in the sun, having a few anti-American allies around the world would be quite useful.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I generally agree with what you are saying here. I would just add that the world has not turned against China because China has not taken any hostile action against anyone. Not since the War with Vietnam 30 years ago. If China does start abusing its power, people will notice and they will turn against her.

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