Evidence and Progressive Policy
In my last post at Table for One, I want to shift from the argument I’ve been making about facts being crucial to progressive political strategy and from my attempt to put this belief into practice. Instead, I will close with some thoughts on the importance of empiricism to progressive policy.
I believe that—note, dear critical commenters, that I’m asserting an opinion here, not backing it up with facts—most differences between New Democrats and other progressives have to do with disagreement about the political climate and the strategic differences that follow from these alternative outlooks.
Progressives are less divided on the question of policy goals and basic values. But the New Democrat movement began with a critique of conventional liberalism that accused the latter of uncritically embracing orthodoxy in the policies it chose to support. Whether that critique was true then or now, it highlights three problems among many progressives: the problem of honestly assessing policies, the problem of giving due consideration to heterodox policy solutions, and the problem of taking trade-offs seriously.
Free trade, for example, has winners and losers, but as Gene Sperling has argued here at TPM Café, the types of trade policies we support ought to be based on evidence regarding who wins and loses (in the short- and long-run) and what the overall net effects of these policies are. Simple-minded postures of hostility to trade are as unwarranted as an uncritical reliance on neoclassical economic theory to guide one’s position.
Along the same lines, sadly, some existing progressive policy prescriptions do not seem to be that effective. Job training of the sort we have funded to date, for instance, has little to show for it. The answer is not to simply throw up our hands and allow conservatives to de-fund these initiatives. But nor is it the status quo.
We care about achieving progressive ends. We should look for the most likely way to achieve those ends. That means considering a range of policy approaches, including tax credits, relying on states rather than the federal government, vouchers, and incremental solutions. It also means accurately assessing the feasibility of different approaches and integrating this information with cost-benefit analyses. Sometimes a less efficient program will be more politically feasible. All of this is to say that we should keep our eyes on the prize. We’re for certain goals – we ought to be agnostic on how to get there.
Finally, we need to appreciate that, as my mom always said, we can’t have it all. Deciding to pursue some policies and spend money on some problems means deciding not to pursue other possible policies.
Beyond this problem of immediate tradeoffs, there are often much more diffuse ones. Completely equalizing incomes, for instance, would obviously affect the risks that individuals are willing to take, resulting in diminished entrepreneurship and lowered economic growth. No one advocates complete flattening of incomes, but there are tradeoffs between equity and growth, and decisions about which mix to pursue should take seriously the effects on those we are trying to help. Sometimes, depending on who we care most about, reducing the deficit may be preferable to increasing spending.
Another aspect of this issue involves recognizing that the status quo produces net losers too. The old welfare system was an important safety net for single parent families, but the evidence indicates that it was also a poverty trap. My own research on welfare reform shows that the 1990s expansion was the first in decades where single mothers reaped the benefits of economic growth to the same extent as others. This is not to say that welfare reform was an unambiguously great policy – the flip side is that recessions will now hurt single mothers to the same extent as other workers. Nor does it mean that the most recent round of welfare reform from last year will be similarly beneficial. Ultimately, these too are empirical questions. But opponents of welfare reform – and other policy reforms – need to keep in mind that doing nothing results in both winners and losers.
In closing, let me thank Andrew Golis and the good folks at TPM Café for loaning this “table” out to me for the past week. TPM Café has consistently featured writers who regularly engage in the important debates of the day by appealing to evidence. I have tried to use my time here to promote that practice, and I hope that my posts might encourage more members of the TPM Café community to carefully consider the basis on which they make their arguments and judge those of others. Progressivism can’t afford to be based on anything other than the best available evidence.















It seems to me that what you are describing is a model of the Bill Clinton Presidencey. Mr. Clinton represented the goals and values of the Democratic party as well as 99% of his fellow Party members in the 1990's Yet he realized exactly what you are talking about--there is an enormous difference between pie-in-the-sky idealogy and pragmatic reality when it comes to getting things done in Washington.
Bill Clinton was willing to stand up against the criticism of his own party on issues he which he personally believed, such as the Free Market Trade Agreements and job outsourcing deals he signed in the NAFTA, GATT, and WTO agreements AGAINST the will his fellow Democrats who believed this would send millions of jobs overseas in the next two decades even though the net results would create on of the strongest financial markets in American history! Clinton aslo had the stamina to tackle Welfare Reform, continuing to support the truly needy while weeding out those who were unjustly sucking the government teat to the toon of nearly 350 billion dollars a year.
A great leader MUST oppose not only his political foes, but his own Party at times. More often than not, the political rhetoric of an election year is heady idealism, criticism, and thesedays--murderous, deephearted hatred. What we need in a GREAT Democratic President is one who will make a committment to the American people. One who will do what is pragmatic, what is doable, and one who will do what is for the good of the people over the good of the Party. Of course, every candidate has to tolerate the whack-job, tin-foil hatted conspiratorialists who talk about the Great Democratic or Republican Conspiracies. That Bush personally gave the signal to murder thousands at the WTC 0n 9/11 and destroy of those Federal Assets; or that Nancy Pelosi is a front for the Italian Mob, etc. But LET'S STICK TO THE FACTS AND VOTE FOR SOMEBODY WHO IS ELECTABLE and whose mide is rooted in the terrestrial, mot the extra-terrestrial.
If this is to be considered, we must remember that during the last 40 years of American elections. Republicans have held the White House for 28 of those years--that's exactly 70% of the time! Meanwhile, we Democrats have served 30% of the time! And the evidence is obvious to those who have followed politics for the last 40 years the only 2 Presidents that have won Presidential office were Carter and Clinton: both moderate, Baptists, from the South who are able to calm the people and not whip them up into a frenzy of vitriolic hatred and intolerance against our own fellow Americans! NO fringe, leftist progressive politician has ever won a Presidency and none will. Dream you pie-in-the-sky, ultra-left wingers, but it ain't happened and it ain't gonna happen! Thin realism, think WIN!
June 4, 2007 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Shorter Scott Winsip: Democratic Party faithful, activists, and progressives who have been hoping for a Presidency that will restore a little sanity and balance to US politics and begin the process of moving the dial from the "compromise" position of 11 where it has been dragged by the Radical Right should get used to being condescended to, kicked in the groin, and stabbed in the back because this is what HRC's Presidency is going to look like.
sPh
June 4, 2007 1:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scott said:
Scott, I appreciate that. That's because my mom said it too. Although my grandmother, my mom's mom said: "Your mother is right. But don't let that stop you from fighting for all of it."
~OGD~
June 4, 2007 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
~
Well, at least those commie, red, pinko, pie-in-the-sky, Birkenstock wearing ultra-left wingers will keep your Bruno Maglia covered feet to the fire.
It's big tent whether you, or I like it or not...
~OGD~
June 4, 2007 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dan,
Since we all pretty much agree that we're not going to be nominating Kucinich, who are you talking about in the current Democratic field? Seems like to me that aside from Kucinich, there isn't a fringe candidate in the field.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
June 4, 2007 2:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
~
Well actually I don't think it's so much a worry about the candidates. From my reading of that post, it appears that the comment is directed more toward a complaint about the "...whack-job, tin-foil hatted conspiratorialists who talk about the Great Democratic or Republican Conspiracies..." and then sort of indirectly tied to the "...pie-in-the-sky, ultra-left wingers..."
Your mileage may vary...
~OGD~
June 4, 2007 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Guess I just don't know many of those types. I suspect their prominence is rather exagerated.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
June 4, 2007 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you are a Democrat you are in the wrong party since you've got Republican spin down pat.
Can't you just hear some wimpy whining Republican lamenting in 1968 that since Democrats had held the Presidenty for 28 of the previous 36 years, conservatism was dead.
Do we want to work for a generational political realignment or just surrender to the other side? Wouldn't it just be like the DLC to be selling conservatism right when Americans could be ready to hear a real alternative?
June 4, 2007 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Over the past few decades, I've never stopped calling myself a liberal (a word I chose over "progressive" precisely because of the campaign against it); but I've always considered myself a pragmatist, and distinguished between goals and means -- "eyes on the prize" is exactly the phrase I would use. That is indeed why I'd get frustrated by Congressional Democrats' seeming refusal to consider that any part of any policy might need to be reconsidered, a stance that gave the right undeserved ammunition which they used to discredit the whole progressive enterprise. And we're the ones who represent the "reality-based community" after all, so, like FDR, we need to be clear-eyed about what we're doing and whether or not it's achieving our intended aims.
But I've also long been frustrated, and worse, by the "centrist"/DLC types (even more vividly illustrated by Al From than Bill Clinton, perhaps) who became so fixated on what they decided was politically feasible that they were unable to see what might really be possible. Moreover, in their attempt to seem the sensible realists, too many of them (the ones given the most air time or op-ed space) chose to promote the right's worst, most dishonest characterisations of us, and helped the propagandists create an image of the whole Democratic party that bore next to no relation to reality -- an image that, thanks to their complicity, overwhelmed any attempt by Democrats, or anyone much left of center, to break through the public discourse. By any objective measure they in fact lost sight of those goals; by their words and actions they made it that much harder to achieve them. Their seeming "realism", which became more a combination of timidity and infatuation with the corporate types (and for some just plain self-aggrandizement), helped push the political spectrum to where it is today. Dan Tanna above says, "NO fringe, leftist progressive politician has ever won a Presidency and none will." He's wrong, of course; many of our best presidents were progressives (Lincoln, FDR, TR, just to name a few), and most of today's Democrats are arguing for policies solidly in that tradition. But by today's definitions, solidified in the public consciousness by the likes of Al From in the Wall Street Journal, that's "fringe." We're facing an opportunity to change that only because this Administration has been so catastrophic that they've created an opening for us; it certainly hasn't been thanks to the work of the "centrists."
June 4, 2007 3:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Captain Kirk: Sensor readings Mr. Spock?
Science Officer: Readings of what?
Captain Kirk: Of what is ahead. I want to know what course to set.
Science Officer: Oh that. It’s just the universe. It’s pretty much the same where ever you go. Might as well just stay where we are.
Captain Kirk: But I want to boldy go –
Science Officer: Stop with the “boldy go” stuff. I’m the science officer and I’m telling you it is all the same wherever you go. So just be glad you’ve got a job and forget trying to be bold all the time.
June 4, 2007 4:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here’s HRC defending wars of aggression as a form of foreign assistance.
"Our troops did the job they were asked to do. They got rid of Saddam Hussein. They conducted the search for weapons of mass destruction. They gave the Iraqi people a chance for elections and to have a government. It is the Iraqis who have failed to take advantage of that opportunity."
Hillary Clinton, New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Candidates Debate 6/3/07
Arthur Silber has the rest:
http://powerofnarrative.blogspot.com/2007/06/some-races-are-just-not-as-good-as.html
June 4, 2007 5:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Finally, we need to appreciate that, as my mom always said, we can’t have it all.
This exactly describes our differences. You run from a starting point of "we can't have it all." We try to have it all, and, if needed, fall back to "we can't have it all."
To me, a smart bargaining position isn't attained by starting the deal by putting your concessions on the table.
Further, and this is even more critical, politics isn't just about "facts" and "evidence." It is at least, in part, emotional.
(One might argue it is all emotional, and "facts" don't even matter. See: Bush, George W.)
Anyway, my guess is the ticket that has "We Can't Have It All" as their bumper sticker is going to lose the election.
Not at all inspiring...maybe OK for a policy wonk, but policy wonks don't win elections.
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
June 4, 2007 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Scott,
I hope you come back for a follow-up discussion some time soon. We're not finished here, I don't think.
The next discussion should be entirely about policy. You suggest that the New Dems aren't so far away from other progressives. I say that while most New Democrat policy ideas aren't highly offensive that they fall far short of the goals most of us would like to reach.
Let's by all means have another data debate, but about policy. I predict that while you will convince many that what Third Way wants isn't as far from what other progressives want as some think, but that you'll also see that the the chasm is wider than you've claimed.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
June 4, 2007 5:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
"We can't have it all" usually means YOU can't have it all because I want it all (see Republican Party for reference).
June 4, 2007 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
~
I see you and my grandmother would have gotten along famously . . .
~OGD~
June 4, 2007 9:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
That means considering a range of policy approaches, including tax credits, relying on states rather than the federal government, vouchers, and incremental solutions .... We’re for certain goals – we ought to be agnostic on how to get there.
Scott - just as the heterodox economists complain that orthodox methods exclude the political and social spheres, the political environment is obviously not inclusive, either. The policy prescriptions you listed above are what came after the '60s and '70s welfare and labor unions got the boot, and if they had worked the first few times, we would not be having this conversation now.
The evidence based solutions to boosting the middle and lower income classes are in the economic sphere. IANAE (I Am Not An Economist), but our government has completely abdicated any responsibility towards promoting the general welfare of all the people by enacting policies designed to maximize everyone's potential. Instead, the gov't has shifted all the risk and uncertainty to the middle and lower income classes in favor of targeting inflation. The result for the middle class has been a drop in nominal wages (income) with higher unemployment AND inflation.
As you noted in your last post, people want to be fair yet their support for expanded education and health care policies is soft. However, research into the economics of happiness has shown that this is because unemployment concerns have a high cost, which trump the other political decisions.
This country needs a loaf of bread. Let's not go to the hardware store looking for it.
UPDATE: Zogby Poll: Majority Call Fighting Poverty a "Top Priority"
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. H.L. Mencken
June 4, 2007 9:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Casting people who would like to see a democratic republic and a viable, economically strong middle class restored to this nation as leftist radicals is getting very tiresome. Further in light of the evidence of the slide away from a viable democracy and strong middle class capable of consuming the products of progress the argument is getting so damned transparent that a six grader can see through it.
I see a pack of sycophants looking for scraps from the upper crust’s table or want-to-be elitists as the authors of this disgusting propaganda. Such people have always been around but they once had the decency to stay in dark corners and the good sense not to expose themselves.
Personally I see New Democrats more politically dangerous than old Republicans. I like my pirates flying the Jolly Roger, rather than a friendly flag.
The world has achieved brilliance without conscience. Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants.
Gen. Omar Bradley
June 5, 2007 6:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah, where to begin?
The link directs us to the abstract of the monograph in support of this assertion. One has to pay to read the whole thing (Caution, I'm frugal cheap). BUT, if the abstract represents the content of the study in toto, then the relationship of it to what it is supposed to prove is pretty tenuous. The argument is for early intervention, not against job training programs. There is a difference. And the last sentence, if it accurately reflects the monograph as a whole, is telling: "At current levels of funding, traditional policies like tuition subsidies, improvements in school quality, job training and tax rebates are unlikely to be effective in closing gaps." Aside from grouping apples and elephants, dubious at best, the telling phrase is the first--at current levels of funding. (I also wonder what the authors mean by this stunner...Children from better families and with high ability earn higher returns to schooling. I guess Nobel prize winners and their assistants are allowed to use tautologies that would get the rest of us in trouble.
Aside from some felicitous creation of straw men (If "no one" advocates complete flattening of incomes" then why raise the issue?) there is the unproven assumption that the primary motivation for entrepreneurship is making more bucks. If this were true, why do old guys with a gazillion bucks keep on innovating, and why do many leave higher paying positions, exchanging salary for autonomy?
I guess two grumps are enough, at least for now.
aMike
June 5, 2007 7:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
[duplicate deleted by author]
June 5, 2007 9:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for taking the time to demolish the specs; wish I could give you a 6.
June 5, 2007 9:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
It seems to me that a post so concerned with fact-based policy would have more interest in whether, say, vouchers have been proven to work. (Hint: the less radical defunding of public education in charters thus far isn't looking great in studies.) Or what benefits thus far NAFTA has brought Mexico, and I say that as myself a liberal free trader in the Krugman mode.
It might also have more wariness of straw men; besides the one Mike raised, I don't recall liberals preferring Bush's deficit economy to taxes. I'd add more, but the conclusions are rather short of actual policy prescriptions.
As for the post's capstone achievement, welfare reform, it doesn't sound all that marvellous to note that working people do well in an economy that is both prosperous and shrinks inequality, lousy in an economy that does neither, but that's allegedly why there are safety nets rather than an unfettered free market. The study cited also doesn't discuss the effect on families as a whole or on children and their education. So the benefits of the law are quite unclear. My mind is still open, but the pragmatic center has to work a bit harder to convince me it's also in the reality based community.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
June 5, 2007 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
amike, there is no charge to download the study, Human Capital Policy (link to pdf).
What is also interesting, and helps to make my point about the role of economics, are the author's claims that the quality of the workforce has deteriorated since 1980. (p.2)
As we all know, 1980 was the year the US ditched Keynes and adopted Milton Friedman's free market economics. According to the authors, the rising wage inequality since then has resulted in a widened college gap. Thus,
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron. H.L. Mencken
June 5, 2007 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many thanks, Seashell. Like Victor Borge's uncle who invented 6-Up, I quit looking one click too soon. :-)
aMike
June 5, 2007 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink