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How Stubborn Are We?

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For the most part, this debate has taken as given that the economics profession is resistant to change and to unorthodox ideas. Is that true?

As a macroeconomist, it's hard to view economics as stationary. When I think about the macroeconomics I learned thirty years ago, which was a traditional Keynesian IS-LM model, and compare it to what we teach today, I see vast changes in both the theoretical models we use to understand the world, and the tools and techniques we use to analyze our models.

Very briefly, from the old style Keynesian model I first learned, to the New Classical model, to the current split between the New Keynesians (markets have frictions, government intervention is helpful), and the Real Business Cycle advocates (markets work, government intervention makes things worse), macroeconomic models have evolved considerably over time. There have also been substantial changes in the tools and techniques that we use. The use of Bayesian estimation techniques, rational expectations solution methods, and the simulation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are but a few examples.

That's a lot of change in thirty years. In fact, one complaint I've heard expressed in this debate is that academic journals will no longer accept papers that employ old style Keynesian economics, i.e. that we have changed too much. But more generally I think the complaint is about the direction the profession has headed more than our resistance to change. We have not gone in the direction heterodox economists would like to see, and that's frustrating when you think you are right.

Are we willing to change when the models conflict with the evidence? I think we are. Are we wedded to the neoclassical model? Macroeconomists investigate frictions, market failures, and information problems. There are disequilibrium models as well as equilibrium models, and we allow for multiple equilibria as a possibility. We model market power to give firms price setting capability, and we impose transactions costs, adjustment costs, and other impediments to continuous market clearing (and I'm sure I forgot some other key frictions). We're not above assuming money illusion, though we try to avoid it.

Though most of this can be embedded within, or as departures from, the standard neoclassical model, a point made elsewhere in this debate, I don't think macroeconomists much care whether the model is neoclassical in the traditional sense or not. There are certainly groups who argue that microfounded, continuous market-clearing, neoclassical style models are the best approach, but find a model that works and you won't be able to keep macroeconomists away from it. If it predicts the future with any certainty, something our current models don't do well, we'll beat down your door trying to get to it no matter what you've assumed. In fact, I sometimes wonder if we aren't too quick to adopt the latest fad, not too slow to change.

I understand that the changes I am talking about assume (for the most part) that people optimize, are rational actors, and so forth, i.e. that the changes in macro have mostly been within the overarching structure of standard economic analysis. The neoclassical framework is a surprisingly flexible structure and the standard framework can handle many of these "heterodox" approaches to macroeconomic modeling so there's no compelling need (in most cases) to develop a new theoretical structure. In fact, over time macroeconomists have moved from using models where the underlying behavior of agents is not optimal, to models where we try to ensure that agents are rational, maximizing actors. Thus, anyone who believes the assumption of optimizing behavior is wrong or that our models miss important social, political, and power relationships, as many heterodox economists do, will understandably be distressed with these developments. That's not the direction they think the field should be headed. But there has been change.

Does the fact that we haven't changed radically imply we won't or can't? I don't think so. Let me give a microeconomic example. When I first entered graduate school and took microeconomic theory, we talked about utility maximization (of course). We were told that economists take preferences as given, psychologists were the ones who worried about how preferences are formed, that was their job not ours. What economists do is take the preferences psychologists give us, and then assume people maximize them. If psychologists tell us that people have a preference for green, triangular shaped goods due to some brain quirk, that's fine, we take that as given and assume they maximize their utility - psychologists can worry about whether it is "rational" in their sense of the word for people to have those preferences.

But things have changed, and we now think a lot about preference formation, what it means to choose rationally and so on - the wall between psychologists and economists is not as high as it once was. For example, later today I am going to a seminar sponsored by the Psychology Department to see Brian Knutson of Stanford present a paper on the neural representations of expected value. This research, which he founded, uses economic experiments with fMRI brain imaging to test alternative theories of choice under uncertainty. That he's a psychologist and neuroscientist, but has written many papers with economists shows how much things have changed. Thirty years ago that would not have happened, not with the regularity it does today. I don't know if this type of work will lead to a revolution in how we model behavior and improve upon the rational actor model used today, something that could affect both micro and macro models, but it does show we are willing to take serious steps in new directions (and it is affecting policy, today neuroeconomists might be tempted to correct the "defect" of preferring green, triangular shaped goods through the use of incentives that "correct" the quirky behavior, i.e. use schemes such as opt-out retirement accounts to maximize enrollment and correct behavior that causes "sub-optimal" choices not to enroll).

Heterodox economists who have argued against the rational actor model may ultimately be proven to be correct, or not, but the question is whether economists are responsive to new evidence, whether they are willing to adopt new models, and whether they are willing to step outside the neoclassical framework if the evidence points in that direction. Others disagree, but my experience says that we are.


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I think the reason these discussions seem to go round and round is that there are several audiences all participating at once.

The ones who write the postings are professional economists, mostly in academia, and see the field from the inside. Things that seem important to them in terms of their research and teaching may not even be visible to non-specialists.

The one who usually inhabit sites like this are not specialists and in most cases not even qualified to discuss economic theories (which doesn't stop of us, of course). We see economics as it affects public policy. In this area the preferred nostrums of the past 40 years haven't changed much. Most of the conservative ideas that were made popular during Reagan are still being used to justify government policy. So from the viewpoint of those who want to see these policies changed, it doesn't much matter what is happening in academia.

Which gets to the final question. If economists are going to participate in public forms (say Krugman in the NY Times, for example) how should they do it? Should they be just partisan pundits like everyone else on the op-ed page, but with a better handle on theories or data to support their opinions, or should they be taking an active part in running policy (like Mankiw or Stiglitz), or should they just restrict themselves to explaining things to the layman so as to improve public understanding?

It must be flattering for an academic to suddenly find oneself being interviewed by the media, but when does this go from offering professional expertise to proselytizing one's social preferences?

--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape

Mark,

You skate back and forth between "optimize" and "maximize" a little too indifferently for me to be confident that you won't at some point confuse the two.

If psychologists tell us that people have a preference for green, triangular shaped goods due to some brain quirk, that's fine, we take that as given and assume they maximize their utility...

People may have a preference for green, triangular-shaped goods up to a point, in which case maximizing their utility is not the same as maximizing the greenness and triangularity of their total consumption. Furthermore, this is only one of a myriad of conditions that, in total, make mincemeat out of the notion that "maximize" refers to something tractable.

What if someone's preference is for minimizing consumption? Then that person will maximize utility by minimizing the quantity of commodities consumed. Can someone have a preference for learning? Could that preference for learning be specifically with regard to the efficacy of one's "given" preferences? May I include in my given preferences the preference that all my preferences not be given? If not, they're not my preferences.

RE "The neoclassical framework is a surprisingly flexible structure and the standard framework can handle many of these "heterodox" approaches to macroeconomic modeling so there's no compelling need (in most cases) to develop a new theoretical structure."

Some might see this as a weakness: the Neoclassical (NC) approach can explain anything (and so therefore explains nothing!)

NC theory is like the God Explanation: earthquate that kills 100,000? God wanted it. Bob Jones wins lottery? God wanted it. Nothing happened today? God didn't want anything to happen today. No earthquate hits? God didn't want one to hit.

NC economists have the same confidence in their theory that some folks have in the God Explanation: they feel they have done a good job "explaining" everything and nothing could ever be wrong with their approach because their approach is consistent with any possible outcome.

In the context of economic models, "optimize" and "maximize" generally mean the same thing. It's just how the models are constructed. Interestingly, econ and engineering use very similar math, except that engineering is often interested in solving for minimizing solutions; if you add a minus sign to the formulas in an engineering textbook, you would have a pretty good econ textbook.

I think you might be confusing the optimization of consumption with the optimization of utility. Most econ models assume that the utility function decreases in slope as consumption rises; so "maximizing utility" refers to solving for that amount of green, triangular things that makes you happiest, which, if the function is bell-shaped, doesn't equate to consuming as many green, triangular things as possible.

One argument in favor of academic economists advising on public policy matters: since so much of what passes for policy analysis at the highest levels of our government is ill-informed, illogical dreck, it would be somewhat comforting to learn that some of these analyses were being done by people who actually understand how the models work (i.e., their strengths and limitations). I would feel safer trusting a policy model of a critical social issue from a Stiglitz or a Mankiw than one from a 22-year-old staffer with a BA in communications; unfortunately, its the latter that seem to have their hands on the lever in today's Washington.

One thing you didn't mention: if the field of economics is so hopelessly wedded to assumptions about the rationality and utility-maximizing behavior of individuals, such that it excludes anyone who explores work to the contrary, why did they award their Nobel prize a few years ago to Daniel Kahneman, a psychologist who explored irrationality in auction experiments?

Mark,

As I made clear in an earlier posting, "change" is NOT the issue. Intellectual paradigms can be be very vibrant and changing. The issue is "pluralism". What if there are other paradigms that are equally consistent with what we know about the economy? Are they given space or are they driven out? That is where sociology and power enter. I have seen not yet seen any engagement with this problem by the mainstream contributors. Unfortunately, that leaves us talking past each other.

Best,

Tom


We're not discussing the oldest and most revered form of economic orthodoxy, the 300lb gorilla in the room. Biological economic orthodoxy i.e. morality.

Though it's anathema to hyper rationalism, in recent primatology we see deconstructed in our primate ancestors the evolution of morality, still largely on a instinctual level, which is inherently economically efficient enough to produce highly evolved social structures.

The granny ENRON traders ripped off was, in their opinion, not rational/informed enough to be worth moral consideration. But even a chimp would have felt the wrongness of that. Yet it's common among people trained in neo-classical economics to believe greed is good to an extreme and in Social Darwinism. (Speaking of grotesque twisting of theories and misappropriation of names.)

Society has passed judgment on "greed is good" wholly self-interested actors, that they lead to tremendous societal inefficiency, and in the case of ENRON executives and others, their freedom is curtailed lest they do further damage.

That's the predatory Social Darwinian effect Brad DeLong calls righties on economic crack armed with simplistic ideology. Not to blame the methodologies or theory. Theories don't kill people, sociopaths with theories kill people.

But, realizing that many students of economics are themselves not rational, unfettered orthodoxy can be quite dangerous in the wrong hands. Whatever theory is taught, a greater emphasis on moral training and the efficiency of moral frameworks would help minimize arming sociopaths.

Maybe to a degree, but I wouldn't go too far down that road. I look to economics for insight into how the economy works, and, given certain assumptions & preferences, how it could work better. I don't think economists make as good of sociologists as sociologists & I look to Philosophy for my morality.

Thanks, NPE, but I wasn't confusing optimization of consumption with optimization of utility. I was simply calling attention to the slickness of the optimization/maximization slide. Even the verbs, "optimize" and "maximize", have misleading connotations in that they confuse the effect of an action with the action itself. Even assuming all the rational actors stuff, people don't optimize or maximize, they choose or they consume.

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