TPMCafe
« RIP JFK: 90 Today | Home | This Week: Hip Heterodoxy by Chris Hayes »

Heterodox and Mainstream Economics

user-pic

When the fine folks at TPM Cafe offered to host a discussion about my feature article for The Nation, Hip Heterodoxy, I was incredibly grateful because I wrote the piece with the hope of sparking a wider discussion both among economists and non economists about the nature of "economic consensus" and the role that that economists and their pronouncements have on our political debates. As is likely clear from the piece, I am no economist myself. I have neither the intellectual chops nor the technical acumen to contribute in any meaningful way to a discussion about asymmetric information, growth accounting or the relationship (or lack of a relationship) between inflation and unemployment.

Nope, I'm just a reporter, which means what I can do is talk to people, listen to them and try to synthesize and critically analyze what they say.

I spent a weekend at the annual American Economics Association conference, and hours with nearly two dozen heterodox economists (as well as several mainstream economists) talking to them about their views of their discipline. By and large they made two main points. First, the sociology of the economics profession, the networks of graduate students, the politics, outlook and worldview of those attracted to pursuing PhD's in econ and the perception that economists have of their role in the pubic debate (as defenders of markets in the face of their enemies and skeptics) tended to mark off certain areas of inquiry and enforce certain boundaries about what ideas warranted inquiry and what ideas were or were not on their face interesting. This sense of taboo operates in different ways, but it's most striking in the David Card interview which I quote in the article, in which he essentially admits to dropping his study of the minimum wage because his colleagues thought he was being a traitor to the profession. In response to the article, other economists, the esteemed Dani Rodrik and George Borjas have reported experiencing very similar experiences. I'm curious to see if other economists in the discussion can relate.

The second point that heterodox economist made was that the framework of neoclassical economics has achieved a kind of identity relationship with economics itself. So if you don't work from out of the neoclassical framework, you are perceived as not doing economics. But there's no reason that one set of assumptions should guide the entire field. Think of physics: when the empirical results of quantum experiments revealed that the Newtonian model didn't apply at the quantum level, physicists were forced to adopt two distinct models, one that guides and predicts (quite accurately) the movement of bodies atom-sized or greater, and one that describes and predicts the movement of sub atomic particles. . Of course, physics continues to search for the Unified Theory of Everything that will unite the two models, but for now there are two models, because, well, that's what best explains the data. There's no reason there couldn't be a similar situation in economics. Indeed, one of the heterodox bodies focuses itself explicitly on calling for "pluralism" in economics. I suspect "pluralism" might sound indulgent and namby-pamby to some economists, but there's no obvious reason that pluralism and rigor would be at odds.

I don't think that economists are that different than other disciplines in these regards (though they make a lot more money and get quoted a lot more in the Wall Street Journal). The search for knowledge is a human endeavor, and no matter how advanced our methods of inquiry become, any set of humans will be subject to the constraints of our human fallibility, our desire to please mentors, to ingratiate ourselves to elders, to prove our devotion to the field, etc... Indeed, an economist might note that there is an incentive structure in place within the field that doesn't necessarily incentivize heresy, even if said heresy turns out to be the truth when all is said and done.


13 Comments

| Leave a comment

Welcome, and thanks for the insights. The New York Review of Books for May 31 had an interesting article about Janos Kornai, reviewed by Robert Sidelsky. Sidelsky notes that at some point Kornai criticizes the classical model as having such obviously unrealistic axioms.  Sidelsky replies that it's supposed to, because these serve not so much to predict outcomes as to allow us to see where real-world conditions depart from the model, presumably enabling further analysis and prescription. I'm not sure I follow that argument entirely, but it reminds me of your recommendation for juggling alternatives. 

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

Good essay: based on my experience with academic economics and real life I tend to think that your analysis is correct, but also that the shell is very thick and there is little hope of cracking it. Traditional economics also serves the purpose of comforting the comfortable and afflicting the afflicted, so it has a built-in constituency with money.

Have any of the more reality-based traditional economists, such as Brad DeLong, respond to your book yet?

sPh

I keep trying to give you a 5 rating for your sentence about the built in constituency, but it doesn't seem to be taking.

It took in the database because I can see it. Thanks.

sPh

I was getting a bit bored by the essays in The Nation which seem to fall into predictable patterns. Your article has made my subscription for this year worthwhile!

What you have highlighted is important because those who claim economic expertise strongly influence social policy and the fact that much of the discipline resembles theology in its certainty is worth calling attention to.

The world faces unprecedented challenges from resource shortage and overpopulation and the growth-oriented conventional economic thinking that is the norm is not going to be adequate to deal with the needed social adjustments. Unfortunately the outsiders are also seeking a way to improve growth (or make it more equitable) rather than looking for alternative goals in life.

One that I've been looking into recently is trying to maximize happiness instead of wealth. Perhaps a topic for a future essay?

--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape

After reading the article in The Nation, I posted the following comment;

As something of a dualist, I recognize there tend to be two sides to every coin, but that only one can be seen at a time. In mediating between the individual and the group it should be remembered that the absolute is the essense out of which we rise, not a model of perfection from which we fell. That said, I think there is a basic fact about the nature of money that economics hasn't taken into account.
Money is not a commodity. It is a public utility. As a medium of exchange and government obligation, it has far more in common with the public highway system, then as private property. We like to think of our bank acounts as personal property, but they are not a safe deposit box. That money is only in our possession when we need it, much like the section of road we are driving on is only ours as we need it. Everyone decries government debt, but it is an essential part of the overall investment pool. The same with Social Security. Where would that money be invested otherwise? The stock markets, real estate, etc. are flooded with liquidity already. If this surplus wealth wasn't being recycled through the public sector and back into the economy, it would be a much smaller economy.
If we understand money as a form of public utility, then wealth becomes as much a responsibility to the larger economy as it is a right to direct that economy. If money is simply one more commodity to be traded, then there is little obligation beyond the Darwinian imperative to maximize one's position.
When we tie it to a particular commodity, whether how much gold is in the treasury, or how much is needed to run the oil markets, then we give those who control that commodity undue influence over the rest of the economy. Those with the gold, rule. With the power this gives oil interests, energy conservation is unlikely, if not politically impossible.

Oh yay, oh yay, oh yay. This article arrives just in time to cool the rage over Gary Becker's latest absurdity.
I am barely economics literate, but I was once an intimate observer of the academic field, married to a Chicago school type.
I will never forget my satisfaction when the voters of California soundly rejected a fair housing law, astounding the circle of like-minded thinkers with their faith-based conviction that enlightened self-interest would prevail, all evidence about human behavior to the contrary.
I still believe that much of economics suffers from the twin delusions that there is such a thing as a unifying theory, and that someday economists will be respected and applauded as "real" scientists, not social scientists.
And we, the ordinary, chaotic, unpredictable proles suffer because their delusions translate into unforgivablly bad public policy.
Long live heterodoxy.

I started reading your article this morning but had to set it aside to finish later after the Card antecdote.  I had to take some time to think about the implications.  I wondered how can economists expect to be viewed as scientists if they shy away from an hypothesis when the results of testing it don't turn out as expected?  Wouldn't retesting it be the more scientific thing to do? 

I won't even try to comment on what your antecdote about the two economic departments at Notre Dame made me think.  I would probably just end up ranting.

 

I'm astounded that Free To Choose is going to see the light of day again. I'm even more surprised that its appearance is greeted warmly and not with dread.

Why? Because monetarism is dead in respectable circles. Milt himself admitted as much. (Admittedly monetarism wasn't the backbone of the series but it was there. It was Milt's professional lifes work.) Dating from the great market swoon of 87 the monetary aggregates have been climbing relentlessly yet CPI inflation during this entire generation has remained tame. End of story.

Well not quite. From the day Greenspan took over the Fed, just days before the crash, till the day he left, M3 and the S&P average rose at exactly the same rate. This would seem to be a crowning proof of monetarism right? Wrong. You see one cannot ever ever ever ever mention the price rise of financial assets, or residential real estate or sundry other asset classes from classic autos to collectibles of every sort, and inflation, in the same sentence or preferably even on the same page.

Admittedly choosing M3 starts complicating this whole thing. The Fed can't control M3 and was so embarrassed by its inexorable rise that last year it stopped reporting it. CPI inflation has lagged the other M measures too however. The explanation always given is globalization. Fair enough, that might be right. However it's a dagger in the heart of monetarism, as presented by Milt et. al. so Milt's monetarism has been quietly, and conveniently, abandoned.

No, assets only rise in VALUE, never inflate in price. Occasionally the term bubble might creep in. The word bubble is now a term of art, or propaganda so that the word inflation does not have to be used.

The bifurcation of income and assets worldwide is linked directly to the relentless rise of M3 type money. Most all of the great wealth we see is from the financial sphere. The financial sphere is generating it's own liqidity, it's own money at a breakneck pace and thus inflating its own assets. At the very moment when monetarisms core ideas are being so well proved it has been abandoned by it's authors.

Why? Because the patrons of economics are getting rich on the inflation of assets so it's best to forget about the cause. Not brilliance or hard work or all that old fashioned stuff. Just good old money printing. (Money isn't really printed in this case but created by a credit system unhinged from the banking system. Money today is always the product of credit. It's still bad form for governments to just print it)

The abandonment of monetarism is so absolute now l that Bernanke last year gave a speech in Europe to other central bankers and in the first paragraph he said money doesn't play any part in setting the Fed's monetary policy

“My topic today is the role of monetary aggregates in economic analysis and monetary policymaking at the Federal Reserve. I will take a historical perspective, which will set the stage for a brief discussion of recent practice…” “It would be fair to say that monetary and credit aggregates have not played a central role in the formulation of U.S. monetary policy since [1982], although policymakers continue to use monetary data as a source of information about the state of the economy.”

If you thought I was kidding. The mind reels. Again:"monetary and credit aggregates have not played a central role in the formulation of U.S. monetary policy" Milt saw the writing on the wall and quietly said, 'oh, never mind about that monetarism stuff', around 99.

When monetarism no longer served a political purpose it was abandoned. I rest my case against mainstream economics.

I have greatly enjoyed reading "Hip Heterodoxy" and all of the responses to it, including by Thomas Palley who (hi Tom) I much enjoyed arguing with during a small workshop on oil wealth a couple of years ago. I found myself wondering if I was the only one reading who felt the looming presence of Thomas Kuhn.  His Structure of Scientific Revolutions, now 45 years old, remains the single best account of how paradigms like the neoclassical one in economics survive long past the point at which the accumulated discrepancies between them and the current body of evidence force a paradigm shift or at least a pluralization of paradigms within a science.  Survival of the neoclassical paradigm is in part explainable socially: economists vested in it, and professionally dependent on it, keep the gates closed to what they call the "heterodox" longer than scientific reason would justify, and generally do what they can to maintain the primacy of their preferred paradigm. Whether there exists a mafia, as Tyler Cowen doubts, or not is irrelevant; all we need are enough insecure, threatened-feeling scholars. The causal mechanism, for example, in Kuhn's analysis is the professor him/herself, adeptly theorized in Patricia Limerick's spot-on article in the Chronical of Higher Education, "Dancing with Professors: The Trouble with Academic Prose," available here:http://www.soc.umn.edu/~samaha/cases/limerick_dancing_with_professors.html

 Inhabiting as I do another science--political science, which I'll say to the skeptics is no less or more scientific than economics, biology, or seismology--and one that has looked envyingly at economics and tried to ape its dominant paradigm, the critiques of the neoclassical worldview hit home even harder in political explanation than they do in economic explanation. Milton Friedman famously wrote decades ago that whether the assumptions underlying microeonomics were reasonable was irrelevant: what mattered was the accuracy of predictions. A scientific paradigm based on this premise is problematic at many levels, especially if it is aspirations to prescribe policy, but here are just two.

First, for any who care about explaining phenomena rather than just predicting them, this philosophy of science and its offspring (like neoclassical economics) are hopelessly useless. Lacking any commitment to finding the right links between cause and effect (causal mechanisms), we are left with black box economic and social processes that neoclassical economists really don't care about, and I find this to be a sloppy way of thinking about the world. Jeffrey Sachs, for example, has completed path-breaking research on the links between geography and underdevelopment, finding that we can account for a good deal of the variation in current levels of development by reference to the difficulty in conquering malaria in the tropics, to the lack of access to ports in many sub-Saharan African countries, and to the long distance to sizeable markets. That is a causal explanation with clear links between the outcome of interest and the causes at work, and it essentially violates the tenets of neoclassical economics by eschewing simplifying assumptions up front and simply looking for the right answers.

Second, thinking about social phenomena (of which market ones are a subset) in a neoclassical way often leads scholars to tautology. Say I walk around all day wearing a hat made of foil and looking fearfully up at the sky.  The neoclassical explanation might go like this: given that I am a rational utility maximizer, I must be up to rational utility maximization. If I am afraid of aliens lurking in the clouds who want to suck out my brain, but am convinced that wearing a foil hat will foil them, then it is rational for me to continue wearing said hat. This tilts toward the absurd end of rationalist theorizing, but it points to an unfortunate reality cloaked in scientific garb: that one can generate seemingly confirmative results by constructing logically dubious theoretical models based on rationalist assumptions. My foil hat-wearing loonie is clearly not rational, but I've just made him so by explaning his behavior using the right language. I have made rationality banal: because all behavior is rational, rationality no longer explains anything. All the window dressing thrown up to push these paradigm-challenging problems aside--information asymmetry (and who in neoclassical circles chases down the question of who creates those asymmetries to maintain their own market power?), externalities, and the like mostly serve to create the sense that real problems with the paradigm are marginalia that can be safely ignored.

http://www.amazon.com/Origin-Wealth-Evolution-Complexity-Economics/dp/157851777X/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1/104-7781416-5206356?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1180492776&sr=8-1

From a reader's review:

"If the economy is a complex, adaptive system, the author argues, there are four implications:

1. Equilibrium, and with it much of the economic thinking that has dominated the past century, is out.

2. A new tool set with its own techniques and theories are available to explain economic phenomena.

3. Wealth is a product of evolutionary processes.

4. Changes in economic thought foreshadow tremors. Adam Smith begat free trade. Karl Marx begat revolutions and socialism. Neo-classical economics begat the rise of global capitalism."


Davis Straub
http://ozreport.com
http://ozreport.com/worldrecordholder.php
http://ozreport.com/location.php
On the road, USA

Something of a sidenote: but Limerick's article is definitely worth a read.  It also conjures up the image of what professors were like in junior high, which is just . . . great.


I have previously posted these as two separate posts,
but they call to be unearthed from the “long run”
to speak again with new life.

--
If all the books in a library were filed in one long shelf beginning
on the left with subjects that "those of good will" could
agree on going on to those subjects with less
agreement onward to the right.

Staring on the left would be math, going on and on to philosophy
and religion in the center and to the far right side,
pressed and squeezed hard against the wood
of the casing, would be economics, where
only those with the same assumptions
could agree on anything!

--
When physically young, I believed that economics
showed what should be done and political science
told what was really done and why.

I now understand economics is about profit
and profit is maximized when others
pay your expenses which is
accomplished though
politics!


---
“Kings” and “Merchant Princes” today back economics
like the arts in the distant past to show power
and money and to foretell and insure
the gaining of more!

--------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking

Leave a comment

Advertisement
Please disable your adblocker!
Ads are how we pay the bills!

Subscribe

The Coffee House
TPMCafe's regulars

House Brew
From Your Cafe Editor

Special Guests
Big names and big brains

Special Features
Pressing topics and trends

Table for One
An expert's week-long talk.

All Reader Posts
TPM readers discuss.

Recent Reader Posts

All Reader Posts »



Book Club Calendar


Coming Soon



Nov. 30-Dec. 4



January 12-16



« Book Club ArchiveFull calendar »

Book Club Archive



Masthead

Editor-in-Chief
Josh Marshall

Site Editor
Lila Shapiro

Intern
Kyle Krahel-Frolander



Subscribe to TPMCafe's feed.
Subscribe to TPMCafe's reader blog feed.

Advertise Liberally
Share
Close Social Web Email

"To" Email Address

Your Name

Your Email Address