Between Ankara and Brussels
Thanks, Yasemin. The Turkish generals have been more outspoken lately precisely because of the diminishing popularity of the EU project in Turkey. When 77 percent of the Turkish public supported the EU reform program of 2003-2004, the TGS was essentially forced to stand by as the AKP reduced the power and prerogatives of the MGK, (National Security Council). Three years later, only 30 percent of the Turkish public support EU membership and the generals have much more room to maneuver because they have a lot less to lose (in terms of public opinion) from their actions. As a result, it is unlikely that the e-memorandum would have been possible if Turkish public opinion had remained overwhelmingly in favor of EU membership.
Europeans resist the idea that they are, in part, responsible for Turkey’s faltering EU bid and the turmoil in Turkish politics, but I believe they underestimate the dynamic effect Brussels has had on Turkish politics. The EU essentially altered the interests of Turkish Islamists and constrained the military, making the reforms of 2003 and 2004 possible. When Europeans say to me that Turkey must become more democratic to join the EU, I always respond that under these circumstances they must support Turkey’s membership bid. Despite PM Erdogan’s brave talk of the “Ankara criteria,” given the structure of Turkish politics and the prevailing institutional environment, the Turks are not going to be able to make the transition without an external power anchoring reform. If anyone needs any evidence of this, they should read the April 27th e-memorandum from the Turkish General Staff.
My concern about Europe is that it is increasingly becoming a geographic location rather than an idea. This will make it unlikely for Turkey to become a member of the EU. In Europe we seem to have gone from weak leaders who had no strategic vision to somewhat stronger leaders who still have no strategic vision. The real problem is, however, European publics. My Turkish friends always say, “Turkey will be different in 10 years and so will Europe.” I am not so sure about Europe. It continues to manifest some very old and very bad habits when it comes to people Europeans regard as “the other.” Imagine the cognitive dissonance of a German who might wake up one morning a decade from now and the homeland of the guy who has been sweeping his street for the last 15 years now has more votes in the European parliament than Germany.
In the end, I believe that unless the EU finds a way to be more constructive regarding Turkey’s membership, Brussels will be (unintentionally) complicit with the TGS in delaying Turkey’s transition to a more open and democratic polity.

















So, when's the US of A going to admit Mexico into the union? Should be pretty soon, since only bad, old Europe doesn't like "the other", right?
After all, Mexico is at least geographically entirely in America, which is a lot more than can be said about Turkey being in Europe.
Now seriously - maybe Turkey simply missed its historical chance to enter the EU thanks to external circumstances. If the Cold War was still on, there's a good chance Turkey would have been in by now. As it was, expanding the EU in a different direction was easier.
In 1994, the EU had 12 members. Now it has 27. It is possible that some former Yugoslav republics will be admitted in the near future, but any further expansion will require painful internal EU reforms. There is not going to be any major EU expansion anytime soon, and that has little to do with Turkey.
May 25, 2007 8:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Cook's post is astonishing.
First, how can he say that Europe is "increasingly becoming a geographic location." Portugal, Ireland, Latvia, Sweden, Poland, and Greece. A geographic location???
Second, the expansion of the EU in recent years is one of the most stupendous geopolitical developments in memory. Think of the US merging with Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and all Central American countries. One can hardly accuse the EU of falling prey to old bad habits.
Third, Cook repeats the logical fallacy that the EU should accept Turkey because it's good for Turkey. Not to put too fine a point on it, this suggests an alarming lack of understanding about International Relations. Should the US merge with Mexico because it's good for Mexico? That's not the way it works in the real world.
Fourth, the suggestion that Turkey can't get its act together without the EU reeks of the same racism Cook is trying to expose earlier in his post.
May 25, 2007 9:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
Turkey is not a European country. The overwhelming majority of its land mass is in Asia. It's capital is in Asia. But most importantly, it does not have a European culture. Yes, there is a westernized elite in Istanbul and Ankara, but what about Kars? In most of the country one might as well by in Syria or Egypt.
Turkey does not fit into Europe culturally and should not be permitted to become a member. Similarly, Turks should recognize that, contrary to the will of Kemal Ataturk, they are not Europeans, they are middle easteners and should not seek to try to be something they are not.
May 26, 2007 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
How long has Turkey been a NATO member? Have they ever not fulfilled their end of the alliance? Ostracism is a reprehensible way to treat a long-term ally.
Turkey is mid-eastern? Hardly, just how do you come with that analysis? Turkey sits atop what may be the most important pivot point on Earth. They straddle several geopolitical fences. For that reason alone, it would be better to keep at least their center of gravity leaning west.
May 28, 2007 3:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
To Pseudocyants:
> >Have they ever not fulfilled their end of the alliance?
Well, they didn't back America in the recent invasion of Iraq. I'm not aware of them doing anything to "fulfil" their NATO obligations to the European members of NATO.
> >Ostracism is a reprehensible way to treat a long-term ally.
They've never been ostracised, but the majority of Europeans don't want them to enter the EU. Otherwise there are extensive social and economic links between Turkey and the EU. If they applied to become the 51st state of America, would a US refusal be "ostracising" them?
> >Turkey is mid-eastern? Hardly, just how do you come with that analysis?
Initially by looking at a map. Then by reading. An overwhelmingly Muslim country which is mainly located in Asia Minor and has common frontiers with indisputably Middle Eastern countries such as Iran, Sqria and Iraq? Yes I feel safe in saying that Turkey is Middle Eastern, certainly much more than it is European.
May 28, 2007 7:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wasn't aware that NATO was a part of the 'coalition of the willing'. NATO did not agree that the Iraq War was proper. Neither did the UN Security Council. This alone was a cause to question the war's legitimacy.
America, as well as the whole world would have been a far better place, had Bush listened to our allies in Paris, Berlin and Ankara.
As to your ignorance regarding Turkey's fulfillment of their NATO obligations; they have soldiers in Afghanistan, they have supported NATO efforts in Bosnia, they were stalwart allies of the US throughout the whole of the Cold War, even though they had the Soviet at their very borders. Maybe you should do a bit of research, before you defame our allies:
"Incirlik Air Base Turkey -- In just three days, the U.S., Turkey and Afghanistan worked together on a joint mission transporting more than 135,000 pounds of Turkish equipment and supplies from Incirlik Air Base, Turkey, to Kabul AB, Afghanistan."
"Turkey takes over ISAF's Kabul Command, there are hopes that Turkish sensitivities to local cultural and religious sentiments will give it an advantage in winning over the hearts and minds of Afghans."
"Historical ties with Afghanistan and the importance attached to NATO's eventual success are the primary drivers of Turkish contributions. Turkey currently retains 750 troops in Afghanistan, which will increase to about 1200 by April this year. In support of the inextricable link between security and development, Turkey has launched, in coordination with the Government of Afghanistan, its most comprehensive sustainable development assistance program ever. Through its PRT in Wardak, which reached full operational capability as of 20 November 2006, Turkey has further extended the scope of its contributions to reconstruction and development. Turkish contributions to security and development are expected to increase with the prospective assumption of the Command of the Capital (Kabul) Region in April 2007."
"Turkish military officials today took over the command headquarters of the NATO-led International Security Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Technically, the NATO alliance continues to be in charge of the UN-mandated force. The Turkish officers are replacing a unit of mostly French and German troops from the alliance's "Eurocorps" that have been in charge of ISAF headquarters since last year."
"The U.S. – Turkish relationship has been affected not so much by the aftermath of the war as by what preceded it. The Turkish-American partnership has developed over the past fifty years and includes joint efforts in Korea, Bosnia, Kosovo, and Afghanistan."
"The prime minister of Turkey, a longtime ally of the United States, discusses peacekeeping in Afghanistan and concerns about Iraq."
Turkey helps cover our ass in Afghanistan, which is where the righteous battle should have been waged when Mr. Bush turned our military away from their hunt of al Qaeda at Tora Bora, so he could Wage War Upon Iraq, the truth notwithstanding.
There were NO WMDs
The Threat was NOT Eminent
The War Upon Iraq was unjustified, and Bush ignored taking our true enemy to ground without prejudice as the dogs that they are to pursue this unrighteous war. Mr. Bush promised to wage war against international terrorists, where ever we found them, and then he ignored the PKK in Northern Iraq, as they regrouped, and started anew their attacks across international borders in both Turkey and Iran, from bases protected by the US military.
This is a reprehensible and dishonourable way to treat our long term allies, but betrayal and hypocrisy is Standard Operating Procedure for Contemporary Conservatives; and exaggerated vengefulness is a known quality of the Bush Administration.
May 28, 2007 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
You place Turkey geographically in the mid east largely because the majority religion is Islamic? Laughable proposition, exposing a complete lack of understanding in geography and history, along with a religious based bias, which also clouds your ability to think rationally.
From The CIA 2007 Factbook:
Hey Rocky, watch me pull disinformation out of my A**. No doubt about it, BullTwinkle, you gotta get a new map...
May 28, 2007 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Turkey's capital is in Asia. That was the Turk's decision. They could have had the capital in Europe if they had made Istanbul the capital. 95% of its land mass is in Asia. It borders such countries as Syria, Iraq, Iran, and Armenia. There is no question about the fact that geographically Turkey (except for a small segment of land) is in Asia. But most importantly, it does have a middle eastern culture. Orthdox Islam is incomptible with the principles of religious freedom which are an essential part of European culture.
Turkey does not fit into the European Union and must not be allowed to become a member.
May 28, 2007 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"How long has Turkey been a NATO member? Have they ever not fulfilled their end of the alliance?"
There is absolutely no objection to Turkey being a member of NATO. That is not the issue. Being a member of a military alliance with European countries, as well as the U.S. does not entitle it to becoming a member of the European Union.
May 28, 2007 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Even more importantly, Turks need to recognize that, in spite of the best efforts of Kemal Ataturk, they are not Europeans. Their cultural heritage is middle eastern. They should embrace this reality and not try to be something they are not.
May 28, 2007 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
To Pseudocyants:
> >they were stalwart allies of the US throughout the whole of the Cold War, even though they had the Soviet at their very borders
I suspect they were stalwart allies of the US BECAUSE they had the Soviet at their very borders. With regard to the other examples you cite, yes they pitch in to help when they see it as their interest; when they don't see it as their interest, they don't pitch in.
"reprehensible and dishonourable "
"betrayal and hypocrisy"
"exaggerated vengefulness"
You need to calm down. States should act rationally to achieve what they see as best for their self interest. It's in Turkey's interest to join the EU, so they want in. It's in the EU's interest, on balance not to admit them.
>.> America, as well as the whole world would have been a far better place, had Bush listened to our allies in Paris, Berlin and Ankara
For what it's worth, I agree with you entirely on this. But I don't think Turkey belongs in the EU, and I wish Americans would stop treating the issue like some moral obligation Europe OWES to Ankara.
May 29, 2007 12:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your usage of the term 'Orthodox' struck me at first as brutal satire, but I quickly realised that sadly, it is improbable that you intended it as such, and is instead, another strong indicator of an inherent permeating bias, an Islamaphobia, that clouds your thoughts towards anything Islamic. The term Orthodox is not in anyway associated with Islam. In and around Turkey, almost all manifestations of Christian sects define themselves as 'Orthodox'. The Predominate Christian sects of The Greeks, The Russians, The Syrians, and The Coptics all use it within their faith's name.
To my knowledge (admittedly weak in the study of languages), it has never been associated with Islam. The term "Orthodox" is itself relatively modern:
From The Online Etymology Dictionary:
Nothing beats a miasmic fog for anchoring unsubstantiated claims intended as a framework from which to build an unjustified world-view upon. You're not affected by the virulent "Clash of Civilisations" strain of Islamaphobia are you?
Turkey is not Mideastern, its origins are complex, but the roots of Turcomen are in no way Arabic, and only tangentially Persian.
May 30, 2007 6:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now you resort to an ad hominem argument diminishing the image of modern Turkey's founder to substantiate your fallacious claims?
In the Disinformation Party are you a member of The Rank or Defiled?
May 30, 2007 7:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your biases run so deeply that you fail to comprehend reality. Turkey does not need a membership in the EU. Their geopolitical location, along with their cultural merchanting heritage, has assured them a well-positioned economic future as a transiting point for energy supplies traversing East to West from both the Central Asian Steppes, and Russia. Yet already the trade between Turkey and the European Union makes them co-dependents.
May 31, 2007 11:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
religious sect may degenerate into a political faction,' wrote James Madison, but the new American nation would nevertheless be protected against the ungovernable combination of religious fervor and political power as long as the Constitution prohibited the federal government from establishing any particular creed as preeminent.
Egitim | chat sohbet
March 7, 2011 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink