Time To Pick A Fight
It makes me uncomfortable that this is such a civilized discussion. Can’t someone call someone else a wanker? Shouldn’t someone have invited some wingnut to argue that the entire premise is wrong because there are no such things as bubbles?
But let’s press forward and see if we can’t stir the pot a bit. For that, I am going to return to the housing/credit bubble. To be provocative, I might even venture to argue that the only thing that is makes it seem that the dotcom bubble has been “great for the economy” is that Alan Greenspan managed to save us from a worse fate by shock interest rate therapy. Unfortunately, by lowering rates so far for so long, he inflated a much larger bubble.
That’s why I am a bit surprised that you’ve marshaled Alan Greenspan, the great bubble blower himself, to your side in your recent post, Dan.
In your book, you appropriately take the Maestro to task for having promoted adjustable-rate mortgages at the multi-decade low point for interest rates, the very moment many people should have been locking in long-term, fixed-rate mortgages. The American people have propped up the economy by taking money out of their homes – which has historically been the main asset for retirees – to spend it on boats and big-screen TVs. That’s hardly the stuff of productivity-enhancing investment.
And what about this infrastructure question? The credit infrastructure in this country existed before this latest credit bubble. Adjustable rate mortgages aren’t new. California lenders sold option ARM mortgages fordecades. (Those are the loans where the borrower can opt to make a low minimum monthly payment. The catch is that the unpaid interest gets tacked onto the mortgage principal.)
The new twist is that California banks once restricted these loans to appropriate customers, such as salespeople and Wall Street traders who work for low salaries with big potential bonuses at the end of the year. But in the last several years, they handed these Option-ARMs out more widely than Dan has given out that positive review of his book from the FT’s Gillian Tett.
And the Wall Street structured finance industry isn’t new either. Drexel Burnham came up with the first collateralized debt obligation in the late 1980s. That’s when investment banks first started securitizing mortgages, too. Innovations in finance don’t require huge sums of infrastructure investments. So the post-Pop! benefit has to come from “mental infrastructure,” to use your phrase. But the mental infrastructure that the average person built up over the past several years is the dubious realization that his or her home can be a piggy bank.
The bubble was formed through something all too typical of every credit cycle: lax lending standards. It was only masquerading as credit innovation.












Comments (9)
Dude, you're a wanker -- boats and big-screen TVs are AWESOME!
:-)
"Thank God George Bush is our president." -Rudy Giuliani
May 15, 2007 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, nothing personal, but I for one will be glad when the Bubble of Bubbles here at TPMCafe has popped.
May 15, 2007 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bubble was formed through something all too typical of every credit cycle: lax lending standards. It was only masquerading as credit innovation.
pretty much. this is how it looked from the ground: "now that everyone and their grandmama has purchased a new mortgage, refinanced that mortgage, and taken out an equity line, where do we go for customers now?"
i won't go so far as to argue that bubbles don't exist, but i think many folks are a bit too eager to latch 'housing' on to the credit bubble. the problem of course is that real estate ('housing') is local. extrapolating national trends from local data is tricky at best (and disingenuous all too often). very few real estate markets actually deserve the bubble description, but the number of people who inaccurately believe in a national bubble is as not-so-surprisingly high as the number of people who inaccurately believe there is or was a bubble in their local real estate market. it's part of our addiction to broad sweeping narratives (especially ones that help simplify complex economic issues into something most folks can understand).
May 15, 2007 2:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
well, seeing as how the discussion of bubbles is due to this week's TPM BOOK CLUB... and seeing as how it's only tuesday...
May 15, 2007 2:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The bubble was formed through something all too typical of every credit cycle: lax lending standards. It was only masquerading as credit innovation.
It was a credit innovation but I've read that ",with all credit innovations, the people in, at the ground floor, benefit the most."
According to Wikipedia, the housing bubble started frothing in 1995 and kept growing for 10 years when the game got out of control and too expensive to continue.
To boldly go...
May 15, 2007 3:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jesse--
I'm very glad to see you on this site.
I've missed your WSJ columns.
May 15, 2007 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm sorry you didn't get the proper blog experience.
Wanker-boy.
Good post, though. For an idiot.
I jus pwned u@! U are teh suck!
Kidding, kidding, Good stuff.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
May 15, 2007 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
No one thinks this topic is interesting enough to get worked up about. Sorry.
May 15, 2007 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it is true that most bubbles, after they have popped, produce much benefit. It is a bit like the first generation of stars that burn brightly and quickly then explode in novas that take the heavier elements they have produced and spread them around as seeds for the next generation, and eventually for carbon-based life.
Somewhere. The dotcom bubble did not do much good for us in America, but it was a true godsend for India. Lots of cheap bandwidth made Bangalore possible.
However, this housing bubble has not produced much of value for anyone. Other bubbles were about production, but this one was about consumption.
So unless we are going to turn half the country into Bed&breakfasts for newly prosperous Chindians, this will be our most fruitless bubble.
May 16, 2007 3:38 AM | Reply | Permalink