Time To Apologize To Critics of Lebanon War
Perhaps it is trite to say it, but the very existence of the Winograd Commission says something very profound about Israel's political system.
It is not merely that the Israeli system is democratic. There are many democracies worldwide including the oldest one of them all, the United States -- but Israelis seem, oddly enough, to have more faith in their democracy than citizens in most of the others, including this one.
I know that sounds odd.
The rap on Israelis today is that all the political scandals and corruption have made them cynical and that few believe in the fundamental fairness of their system. That sounds right and almost inevitable in a country where so many political figures are under investigation.
But the reaction to the Winograd Report says something else. It says that Israelis expect their government to do the right thing when it comes to matters of war and peace. Once Israelis perceived, right or wrong, that the Lebanon war was a failure, they demanded to know exactly how it happened and who was responsible. Then they would decide the proper punishment.
This is not something we do here. There was no official investigation of the Vietnam War (we learned about its origins from the leaked Pentagon Papers, which the Nixon administration tried to suppress) and there won't be an official investigation of the Iraq war either.
Americans seem to be more accepting of governmental malfeasance than Israelis. We expect politicians to act like politicians. We even tolerate being lied to.
Israelis, amazingly enough, do not. That is why the Second Lebanon War -- like the first one and the Yom Kippur War of 1973 -- was investigated by the Winograd Commission. And its findings were no whitewash.
The Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense and the army Chief-of-Staff all were found to have made grave errors of judgment. Winograd found that the government went to war without fully examining the alternatives, the likely results of a full-fledged Israeli military response and even the army's capabilities. The report also found two previous Prime Ministers, Ehud Barak and Ariel Sharon, responsible for allowing the situation in the north to deteriorate so badly, without responding, that it left their successor, Ehud Olmert, with a time bomb ticking away.
Governments make mistakes, terrible mistakes. It is not as if Olmert and the others deceived the Israeli public into war. The provocation that produced war was no phony Gulf of Tonkin attack, knowingly used by a President to win support for the Vietnam War. No one "fixed" the intelligence to produce a preordained result.
No, the Israeli attack on Hezbollah was the response to that terror organization's kidnapping of two Israeli soldiers and the killing of another three on the Israeli side of the border. The attack was unprovoked; its purpose was to seize hostages who could be used to negotiate the release of Hezbollah terrorists in Israeli jails.
Most Israelis wanted their government to respond militarily, and decisively. They did not know that the government (including the military) did not know how to do that. According to the report, Israel embarked on the war almost blindly, with no real plan and not much more than the hope that the great Israeli army and air force would figure out how to win on the fly.
That didn't happen. Hezbollah suffered no knockout blow and the war ended with hundreds of thousands of Israelis from the north living as temporary refugees, with southern Lebanon devastated and over a thousand dead, with Hezbollah riding high, with the kidnapped soldiers still in their hands, and 162 Israelis dead.
In retrospect, the war looks like a mistake, not the idea of the war (a country has the right to defend itself) but the war that was actually fought. The government should have known it was not ready for war and, at the very least, bought some time -- and developed a strategy -- before undertaking one.
The good news -- if there can be good news in a situation like this -- is that the government of Israel should learn from the mistakes Winograd points out. The report includes specific recommendations, which, if followed, would prevent a third Lebanon debacle (in the north or somewhere else). Holding the government accountable in this instance can help prevent future blunders.
But what of us here, the pro-Israel community?
We supported the war whole-heartedly. I didn't think Israel had any choice but to hit back hard and, throughout the war, held my tongue (and pen) when I started to perceive that the war was going badly. I assumed the Israeli government knew what it was doing, that it wouldn't risk its soldiers without a solid plan to accomplish the mission.
I was wrong. And so were all those who felt that this war was a necessary battle for Israel -- in contrast to the various raids, skirmishes and attacks on Palestinians which accomplish little other than to take lives and postpone the negotiations that will end the conflict.
Especially wrong were those people who tried to shut down criticism of the war by people who understood that it was a mistake, like the Members of Congress who spoke up and said that the United States should help end the conflict by seeking a cease-fire.
The response these Members of Congress received from local community leaders who wear the pro-Israel mantle was loudly and unambiguously negative. They were told that their call for a cease-fire was inappropriate. They were summoned to community meetings where they had to defend themselves against the charge of being anti-Israel.
Now we see that these Members of Congress were not wrong. A cease-fire, once the war started going badly for Israel (which was the precise point that the Congressional cease-fire calls were issued) would have saved dozens of Israeli and hundreds of Lebanese lives.
Those dissenting Members of Congress clearly deserve an apology. After all, the Winograd Commission and, essentially, the entire population of Israel now agree that the war was a debacle.
But apologies aren't likely. Despite everything we have learned, there are still those spokespeople for the pro-Israel community who believe that lockstep support of official positions is invariably right. No matter that they have been proven wrong, over and over again.
The good news is that the pro-Israel community is changing. Nobody loses their Congressional seat for telling the status quo crowd what they don't want to hear. Sure, they get some flack from those champions of the status quo. But that is about it. And more and more people in the pro-Israel community want their Representatives to speak up when they perceive our (or Israel's) policies to be damaging -- damaging to America and damaging to Israel. The ice is cracking. The Winograd Report only helps.














Israel didn't go to war to get a couple of soldiers back. It went to war to smash Hezbollah. In the end it wasn't willing to pay the costs in blood and treasure (and perhaps, international opprobium) it would have taken to accomplish the goal. The war turned out to be an expensive reconnaissance in strength.
Stuff happens!
May 4, 2007 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
There tends to be more opportunities for accountability in a parliamentary system, with the option of a vote of no confidence being far less nuclear than impeachment.
Something that you might answer: does the Knesset have an equivalent to the British and Canadian Question Period? Ah, if we did...
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 4, 2007 12:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
". . . . There are many democracies worldwide including the oldest one of them all, the United States . . . . "
Is that true?
And.
Why didn't Israel investigate their attack on the USS Liberty back in the 60s?
May 4, 2007 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I thought Israel invaded to acquire more land?
May 4, 2007 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
In this case, clearly not.
May 4, 2007 1:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Raphael.M,
They did. Michael Oren's account draws from Israeli, American and independent investigations:
May 4, 2007 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The stupid summer war was on the table from the time Olmert became Sharon's official replacement and meetings commenced in March 2006 in order to change the policy of containment along the border. Let's stop pretending that the IDF and Hezbollah hadn't been engaged in mutual tit-for-tat games of capturing and holding hostages, shall we? It was decided during the meetings that the attack on Lebanon would be commenced as a response to either of the following scenarios; a rocket barrage or another kidnapping/capture of IDF soldiers.
Despite intelligence warnings that Hezbollah was increasing activities in the region in order to attempt another snatch, requests for enhanced security precautions along the border were denied.
As Aluff Ben reports in today's Haaretz, there are huge holes in the Winograd Report re what in the bloody hell was going on in the run-up to the stupid summer war:
"What an embarrassing failure. After months of work, reading thousands of documents and hearing dozens of testimonies, the Winograd Committee was unable to figure out how the decision was made to embark upon the Second Lebanon War, who made it and when. This question, which is of supreme importance in understanding the dramatic events of the past year, will remain a historic mystery, a lost "black box."
Benn reads between the lines and sees American tactical involvement from the very beginning of the attacks:
"The diplomatic sections of the report have been heavily censored, but between the lines one can discern that the American administration imposed close supervision on Israel on the day it went to war, and forbid it from striking at Lebanese infrastructure, especially the country's electricity network. The result was "that Israel's ability to deviate from the policy of containment was limited." The proposals from Halutz and ministers Haim Ramon and Eli Yishai ("If they're crazy, they need to think that we're insane") to strike at Lebanon's infrastructure were rebuffed. Now it appears that not only did the Americans prevent a bombing of the electricity network, they also thwarted the diplomatic effort before the war. If so, then responsibility for the war's outbreak falls on them as well."
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/855572.html
Can we stop with the bullshit that the stupid summer war wasn't another failed pre-emptive war of choice in order to alter the face of the Middle East? The war was first designated as "Operation Just Reward" and who can forget dear barren Condi waxing soooooo sympathetically about the region suffering "birth pangs"?
For chrissakes, there was even a PR roadmap laid out in advance of Israel's latest war of self-defense:
"Former prime minister Ariel Sharon's spokesman Ra'anan Gissin said he had warned Olmert ahead of the war that it would be fought largely on the foreign press battlefield.
Gissin said emergency procedures for explaining Israel's position were planned ahead of the war but never implemented.
Gissin, whose tenure ended shortly before the war, was not part of Israel's public relations campaign."
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1178198608660&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
Let's not forget that Thomas Ricks told Howie Kurtz that American analysts told him that Israel deliberately left Katyusha batteries in place in order to justify the Israeli response, even if it resulted in civilian deaths in the North.
I doubt we will ever know how many bloody hands in DC and TA crafted this debacle.
May 4, 2007 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I personally believe that the Liberty incident was more due to negligence (on both sides), overreaction by Israel, and error than due to deliberate action approved at high levels, I would note that Oren's account does have technical errors.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 4, 2007 2:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard,
The incident has also been cynically exploited by those who have an interest in promoting the idea that Israeli interests are nefarious by nature.
May 4, 2007 2:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
As long as we continue to call and/or believe an attack to be unprovoked, wars will continue. No effect is ever without a cause. No reaction can ever be the result of a non-action.
The 60 plus years of Palestinian/Israeli history are a testament to what happens when that truth is ignored.
May 4, 2007 2:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pangs which included Uri Grossman's death on Aug
13th by when it had long been clear that extending the war had ceased to be in Isreal's interests .
No one need feel ashamed of having supported Isreal's attack . Of continuing it , yes.
May 4, 2007 2:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Many years of studying military history have taught me that, especially in war, amazing blunders are possible, sometimes seemingly with the cooperation of enemies.
In this case, the US put an essentially defenseless platform in a position that it should never have been placed by itself. Several years earlier, in the Gulf of Tonkin, electronic intelligence patrols were conducted by pairs of warships, with one having an intercept van on its deck. I grant that the AGTR and AGER ships gave room for more equipment, but IMHO should have been escorted by one or two US warships, as well as having air cover on call.
There is reason to believe the Israeli naval command was hypersensitive about criticism, and then called in air units to attack. Pilots who are not naval aviators have a long history of misidentifying ships. When the US Air Force assisted the Navy during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the USAF pilots were reporting Russian vessels everywhere, decorated with enormous red stars. Naval officers gently explained they were Texaco tankers.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 4, 2007 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Man, we have two really brilliant comments here today.
One from Phelicity: "As long as we continue to call and/or believe an attack to be unprovoked, wars will continue. No effect is ever without a cause. No reaction can ever be the result of a non-action."
Ok, I guess that means that Hitler's attack on Poland was provoked or Stalin's on Finland. No, Phelicity, some attacks are unprovoked.
Then there is the amazing Ellen whose response to the dead Lebanese, Israelis and Palestinians (including two brothers under the age of 10) is "Stuff happens."
"Stuff happens." I'm always impressed by Ellen. She is very very astute and sensitive too.
May 4, 2007 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
One interesting thing about the report is the criticism of Israeli policy during the past 6 years. They criticized Israel for allowing Hezbollah to stay in Southern Lebanon and to rearm with both missiles and other arms.
Barak and Sharon by not deal with Hezbollah greated certain facts. The facts were not adequately taken into account when starting the war. Israel had an IAF General as their Chief of Staff for the first time. Israel did not want to fight a serious ground war but probably had to do so. This is the crux of the criticism of the planning around the war.
According to Daniel Levy, today on CSPAN, the next part of the report will echo Haaretz' Zev Schiff's point that the regular army has lost its edge by serving in the West Bank. Schiff wants to see the Shin Bet take over the policing function allowing the IDF to become a better trained and effective force.
This all seems rather reasonable.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
May 4, 2007 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hezbollah, AFAIK, always qualified as an organization that had light infantry and artillery. How do you keep that out of an area without using ground troops, as distinct from police, if the other side is willing to use infantry and infantry support weapons?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 4, 2007 4:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
We bombed Canadian soldiers in Afghanistan after our pilots noticed them as shooting. The idea that if there is hostile shooting from small weapons on the ground then there can be also friendly forces doing the shooting did not dawn on our pilot, and his controllers.
I think that we also managed to shoot down a British fighter plane in the absence of any evidence that Iraq flies any planes (and Iraq was watched with a variety of means).
Those are examples of friendly fire among forces that were supposed to fight together and to establish all necessary protocols to avoid it.
May 4, 2007 4:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
What Wolfowitz and Cheney were to combat, Condi was to birth pangs. Never been there, never done that.
May 4, 2007 4:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Apologies accepted...A blanket amnesty!!!
And a plenary indulgence to those now calling for Olmert's head
The Gefilte Fish Revolution
This is what a Lost war looks like - Looks Like Beruit!
You gotta love Israel. I wish we could get rid of our little WarLord so easily.
Robert Fisk: Olmert Undone by Militia He Sought to Destroy
Connie THIS is what a lost war looks like...
Coming soon to a theater near you
May 4, 2007 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some are, some aren't.
Shortly before the kidnapping, there was a claim in Lebanon that a ring of assassins paid by Israel was uncovered in Tyre, Hezbollah backyard. One could probably list other Israeli acts as provocation.
It is possible that the ring of assassins is fiction, and that no one reasonable gets irate because of daily sonic booms above his head. But then again, the opposite is plausible too.
Lastly, comparing a force of several thousand fighters with "Hitler and Stalin" is defending totally unnecessary extreme measures (that were unproductive to boot). How about "American attack on Grenada" for an example? Sound much nicer! Bombing US cities across the country would seem like widely excessive overreaction.
May 4, 2007 4:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
From the US-side it was downplayed and not seriously investigated since it was Israel. LBJ handed off and wanted no serious findings made public.
Another thing to remember is that Israel was at war with Egypt at the time, but the USS Liberty was clearly marked as a US ship.
You can listen to Democracy Now's report. They're fairly straight and objective on the factual reporting.
The Loss of Liberty – Why Did the U.S. Allow Israel To Attack Its Largest Spyship Killing 34 Americans and Wounding Over 170 Others?
Just my opinion, but modern Israel would be wise to heed David Ben-Gurion's advice about trying to make peace with its neighbors or live in perpetual conflict.
May 4, 2007 5:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's kind of hard to inhabit land when you dump a couple of million cluster bombs/bomblets on it on the way out.
Oooops!
May 4, 2007 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well actually, Mark. Germany's war with Poland was not unprovoked. Indeed, it turns out that there was a cross border raid by Polish military forces into German territory. The Poles were spoiling for war, definitely. The attack, on a radio station, was repelled. Not only that, but an investigation of the incident turned up Polish looking corpses wearing Polish army uniforms. I don't know how you missed it, it was in all the German papers at the time. The population was reported to be outraged. Hitler had no choice...
Of course, in actual fact, the incident was a fraud. It hadn't actually happened. It had been entirely manufactured, and the Nazi's had merely dressed up a bunch of political prisoners in Polish army uniforms and shot them.
But then, this is only one in a long line of imaginary provocations - the sinking of the battleship Maine, the Gulf of Tonkin incident, Iraq's wmd's.
Then there are 'provocations' that turned out to be a little more complicated. For instance, the Lusitania was an innocent passenger liner whose sinking was a crime against humanity that brought America into the war on the side of the allies... Except the Lusitania seems to have been carrying munitions... oops.
Sorry Mark. Phelicity is right, and you're wrong. It's not more complicated than that.
May 4, 2007 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nastallah was impressed too!
May 4, 2007 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Like Rachel Corrie being murdered by an Israeli bulldozer, the USS Liberty gets no media attention and probably not 5% of Americans know about it. All the while they can tell us over and over about Iran and the hostages. Did the Iranians kill any of those hostages? And ye Gods, it was after they got rid of the megalomaniac preening Shah that we'd forced down their throats for 25 years.
The Captain of the Liberty was awarded the Congressional Medal of Honor at the Navy Yard instead of the White House in order to keep it on the Q.T. Three times jets from the Saratoga were sent up in response to the Liberty's SOS and three times they were called back, twice by MacNamara and once by LBJ himself. A Soviet ship came to their aide. The Israelis torpedoed the Liberty's life rafts. Their explanation of mistaking it for an Egyptian horse or cattle ship seems ridiculous when you consider it was a sustained attack over many hours. I've seen pictures of the 2 ships and its not credible that they mistook one for the other. Israel is the country that perpetrated the Lavon Affair --- if our dear leaders gave a darn they'd have investigated the Liberty incident from that perspective, i.e., that Israel was trying to get the US to attack the Egyptians or set up a pretext for the US to attack the Egyptians. Soviet ship came to their aide. Crew members claim they were ordered to keep silent under threat of court martial.
May 4, 2007 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could go on, but here are two presumptions common within the USA that I hate"
1) WWII started on 7th December, 1941. It started over 2 years ealier, and the presumption both belittles FDR's efforts and those of US volunteers that fought against the fascists earlier, and underplays the pro-German, anti-war sentiments prevalent within the country;
2) that the USA is the oldest democracy. You have to remember that over half the couhtry was disenfranchised until the 20th century, and that democracy was less than perfect even within the white, male section. So, on that qualification, UK democracy, however limited, predated US'.
6 nations
Iceland
Tinwald, Isle of Man
women enfranchised in New Zealand
Just please check your facts, qualify. There is so much myth in US "known" history.
May 4, 2007 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
You miss the point. The mistake wasn't in going to war itself. The incompetent way in which the war was conducted by the Olmert government was the problem. No one owes critics of the Lebanon war an apology since they opposed the war itself and claimed Israel used disproportionate force. I would say just the opposite, if anything the Olmert government's approach to the war was too timid, due to its concern about casualties, the fear of a reoccupation of south Lebanon, thus limiting the use of ground forces which were needed to defeat hezbollah, and its being intimidated by international condemnation.
May 4, 2007 10:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
LEL66 --
Olmert was deaf to the world (and some of his own people) as long as he wanted to be.
And the killing of exactly how many more innocent Lebanese would have shown Israel not to be intimidated by the world and made the war effective?
How much more of the country should they have destroyed that had nothing to do with smashing hizbullah?
How many more thousands of illegally used bomblets could have helped Olmert thrust his chest out to his nation and the world.
Your logic stinks of immorality and callousness.
As much as did the camp murders instigated by Sharon 20-plus years ago.
May 4, 2007 11:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Heh heh heh!
It is ironic that almost every problem the US has encountered, has been a result of its foreign policy.
The US installed The Shah in Iran after overthrowing the democratically-elected Prime Minister Mosadeque.
The US is persona non grata in most of Latin America, now that it's independent and moving Left. And Venezuela is even financing some of the US debt with its oil revenues.
And its Mideast policy has been absolutely one-sided.
No wonder 9-11 happened.
May 5, 2007 4:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Rosenberg, please ask your friend, Rep. Chris van Hollen, (D-Md.) if he thinks people like me should apologize for criticizing his advocacy of a cease fire --which (though, I grant, not intentionally) gave aid and comfort to Hezbollah. By all means, please report his answer to that question with detailed quotations.
The reason the Winograd Commisson was formed is not because Olmert, Peretz and Halutz ignored calls for a cease fire from Van Hollen and others far more influential. No, the reason for that Commission was because--afraid of the negative reaction from the U.S.--Israel's leaders did not act with the requisite ruthlessness against its implacable foe-- even if it meant completely destroying Lebanon and killing every single one of its inhabitants.
I worry that the Olmert Government's fecklessness has made a third Lebanon war more likely, but I am glad at least that your friend has learned his lesson, and the next time Haifa comes under attack, he won't unwittingly be offerring succor to thugs.
Oh, and just so the Jew-haters around here, who flamed me after my last post, are clear: destroying Lebanon and killing every single one of its inhabitants is not a policy I advocate--unless that were the only way to stop the attacks on Haifa and other parts of Israel. Whether that result could be achieved without those horrific consequences is not certain, but what is certain is, first, that the Israeli leadership in July, 2006 did not have the will and the smarts to find out; and, second, calls for a cease fire from well-meaning doves like van Hollen only contribute to the inability of Israel's military to effectively defend its
people because flawed leaders like Olmert become even more timid in the face of those calls.
May 5, 2007 5:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Robert Jay Lifton, the academic psychiatrist that wrote the superb The Nazi Doctors, wrote another book (among many) with which I don't totally agree, but I'd certainly call thought-provoking. In The Genocidal Mentality: Nazi Holocaust and Nuclear Threat, he explored what he believes are similar motivations and rationalization between the Holocaust and those who actively planned major Cold War nuclear exchanges, which would have killed considerably more people than the Holocaust, and indeed WWII.
One of my major objections to his theories in that second book is that US targeting policy, certainly from the mid-sixties, avoided what Herman Kahn called "civilian devastation attacks", and tried to target more selectively. Still, there is some worthwhile food for thought in the book.
So, when you bring up
you are addressing something that is conceptually genocidal, just as major countercity nuclear attacks are conceptually genocidal. You wouldn't find the Joint Strategic Target Planning staff in Omaha labeling a Single Integrated Operating Plan Major Attack Option "kill everyone", but there was a flavor of that in some of the less restrained options.
is, whether you like to admit it or not, just as US and Soviet nuclear war planners wanted to admit it or not, there is a genocidal component to that thinking.
The US-USSR situation stabilized in Mutual Assured Destruction when both sides had effectively invulnerable second-strike forces, so that no attack on one could present massive retaliation. That isn't quite a model that fits neatly on Hizbollah, but the resemblances can't be ignored.
In dealing with terrorism, I prefer, over military and law enforcement models, a model from public health, and its subset of infectious disease epidemiology. In human history to date, we have eradicated one disease, smallpox, in the wild. A handful of other diseases are close to that point.
Still, the goal of realistic infectious disease is to reduce the incidence of infections (i.e., prevention), and to reduce the damage they do (i.e., reducing virulence and treating the disease). Even if you killed eveyone in Lebanon, I don't believe that it wouldn't be resettled, or that other territories would become more hostile. Perhaps if you seeded the ground with highly radioactive material, you might prevent resettlement, but wind in the wrong direction is going to be a real problem for Israel.
When people live in parts of the world that have endemic malaria, or other diseases, they use the protective drugs and netting they can afford, drain and spray mosquito-breeding water, and, when they get malaria anyway, treat it. I'm afraid that terrorism against Israel is endemic, and not on a nuclear exchange scale. There are technological measures such as anti-rocket guns and lasers that could reduce the incidence, and if Israel learned the proper techniques for counterfire against rocket launchers, it would help. Nevertheless, by choosing to have a land in an area with endemic infections -- look at Arab tribal fighting if nothing else -- you choose to have a certain terrorist threat.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 5, 2007 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
What about the Lavon Affair?, when Israeli agents bombed American and British targets and tried to pin the blame on the Arabs? Is that too just being "cynically exploited"? Or is it just a simple fact that Israeli interests are not necessarily US interests, and at times Israel has bit the hand that feeds them and harms US interests?
ooops! We're not allowed to say that, are we?
May 5, 2007 6:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
M.J. - just for the record - the oldest democracy in the world is Iceland. Beat the US by about 800 years. (Althing being equal)
Neoboho
May 5, 2007 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
That is what the prior U.N. resolution called for. It is also an interesting illustration of Hezbollah as a nation within a nation. Where was the Lebanonese government and its master Syria?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
May 5, 2007 9:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
LEL66 is exactly right. Olmert didn't listen or was not offered and didn't ask for various options for dealing with Hezbollahs, kidnapping and perhaps murder of two Israeli soldiers.
If Lebanon can't keep Hezbollah under control then Israel is going to do it. They need to be better prepared both militarily and politically.
Your ignoring the facts of Hezbollah's many attacks on Israel after Israel withdrew from Lebanon and the failure of either Lebanon or Syria to do anything about it is where the blame lies. Also wiht people like you who then to ignore the facts when it is Jews dying.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
May 5, 2007 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
The UN can call for all it likes, but in this case and so many others, it's rather like the mice voting to bell the cat.
Insisting that the Lebanese government control a government-within-a-government isn't realistically going to happen. Syria doesn't yet have a motivation to do so, although perhaps they may horse-trade.
So, rather than complaining, is there anything meaningful that can be done? Short of genocidal steps, I don't see Hizbollah going away.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 5, 2007 10:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
On the face, Seth, this statement seems just fascinating - Nasrallah seemingly endorsing any Israel is surprising, to say the least. But a closer reading of the article to which you linked suggests that it was actually meant as a dig at the Sinoria government of Lebanon, with which Hezbollah is engaged in an intense power struggle.
Very interesting nonetheless.
Know your enemy well, for in the end that is who you become. ~~Old Chinese Proverb
May 5, 2007 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
(Althing being equal)
Nice!
May 5, 2007 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah right. We've heard it before. We hear it with Iraq. Invading Iraq was a good idea, it was just bungled in execution. That's the universal justification for every war that ever went badly.
Too bad the Winograd commission doesn't agree. Too bad the official word is that it was a bad idea from the start.
Sorry boyo, you lost this one. Either deal with it, or take your place beside the legion of old farts re-fighting the civil war and vietnam war, denying the holocaust and wearing tinfoil hats.
May 5, 2007 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think LEL66 is exactly wrong on this. The question is not about how but why the war was waged. It is the same excuse used by the rightwing hawks here when they condone the invasion and occupation of Iraq by faulting the incompetence in carrying it out.
Regardless of whatever tactics Hezbollah might use (and I'm not condoning them), they are members in the Lebanese government and essentially freedom fighters who want Israel out of their country. Israel and, of course, the U.S. wanted to go after Syria and Iran and crushing Hezbollah and Lebanon (again) was an indirect way of doing that.
The pretense for war was just convenient. The IDF has been skirmishing with Hezbollah since Israel withdrew from (most) of Lebanon. Has Israel not kidnapped captured any Hezbollah fighters? Even Nazrallah was shocked at the time Israel started the war and said that he wouldn’t have taken the soldiers if he thought Israel was going to start a war over it.
Israel used the excuse that Hezbollah fighters were integrating within civilian areas to bomb the hell out of the Lebanese infrastructure and people. In most cases, the homes, schools and hospitals targeted by Israel were not near Hezbollah fighters. This was not discussed in the vaunted open-debate Israeli press. Nor was the fact that Israeli military posts being targeted by the inaccurate Hezbollah rockets were also located near civilian areas mentioned to the Israeli public.
MJ is mistaken in his belief that Israel is more accountable or less blind to its government malfeasance than the U.S. Ask this recent member of the Israeli parliament how democratic Israel is. Some commission chastises a Sharon or Begin after the fact yet these guys still go on to higher offices. It may be that the press in Israel has not been corrupted in the same way it has been here. It may be that our current administration has exploited 9/11 to usurp power and are only beginning to be called on it. But both the U.S. and the Israeli media and government spin these foreign invasions around some national security interest and never report the whole story at the time of the hostilities.
May 5, 2007 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard, there is not just a “genocidal component” to Emet18’s thinking, it is a direct proposal for genocide. Of course, there is a rationale for it as there always is.
I know you’re not defending the ridiculous meme that Arabs are just uncivilized nomads fighting endless tribal wars. But your reply that some prophylactic response is better only because killing them all wouldn’t be effective, seems to sanction it, at least as an alternative to discuss.
The key to these racist schemes is always to portray the Others as different; barbaric and beneath the civilized real people. Has the U.S., Israel or the West never engaged in any nationalistic warfare? How can a people be even considered part of a “disease” that must be wiped out? Emet18’s KILL THEM ALL because Arabs-are-less-than-human anyway philosophy is the only diseased thing I see here.
May 5, 2007 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Didn't we think (or say we thought) that the Tornado was a missile?
And a mistaken attack on the wrong ground forces is not comparable in any way to what happened to the Liberty.
May 5, 2007 1:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is half right. Israel's leaders did not act with requisite ruthlessness, it is true. But they weren't held back by an unwillingness to be aggressive against Lebanon. Rather, they held back because they wanted the war to be conducted with minimal Israeli casualties. They did not have the stomach for the hundreds of Israeli military casualties it would have taken to invade Lebanon with ground forces and clean out the Hezbollah infrastructure once and for all. The estimate is that if Israel went in with a full ground invasion, it would have resulted in somewhere between 500 and 1000 dead soldiers.
Like many a leader before him, Olmert was seduced by the idea that Israel could achieve its objectives through air power. He was encouraged in this belief no doubt by his Chief of Staff, Dan Halutz, an Air Force man. The number of times bombing alone has failed to achieve strategic military objectives is astonishing. But leaders still choose it, usually because they are put off by the idea of a ground invasion and occupation and the casualties that will produce.
I think this is way off base. The idea that criticism of wartime leadership is somehow unpatriotic or unsupportive is a familiar conservative talking point (and of course they are complete hypocrites - conservatives never were shy about crticiizing Bill Clinton about matters of war). They do not understand that the strength of democratic countries lies in the free exchange of ideas and criticism. It is crazy to ask people to hold their tongue even if they see a policy go way off the rails. It's bad for democracy and it leads to bad results.
May 5, 2007 1:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
I remain skeptical that it was a mistake, but not quite convinced that it was deliberate. I do remember reading transcripts between the Israeli controllers in Ashdod and the IDF choppers, which suggested that the controllers on the ground knew a whole lot more than the chopper pilots on the scene did about what was going on (and how did they?), but I am too lazy to find them and start up another round of debate.
And the theory that the US had detected that the Israelis were "cooking" Arab message traffic (i.e., changing and rebroadcasting them with a more powerful signal them in almost-real-time, so that the genuine signal is not heard), or that Israel thought we had, remains, AFAIK, as an unrefuted possible motivation for an Israeli attack.
If it ever turns out they had a plan to blame it on the Egyptians or the Syrians, I guess that'll decide it for me.
May 5, 2007 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Schiff's point that the regular army has lost its edge by serving in the West Bank."
I have always worried that our own military is approaching a similar fate, without the opportunity any more to think about or train for for operations against a conventional (i.e., well-armed) foe.
May 5, 2007 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm afraid you misunderstand my references to preventive medicine. I am trying to phrase it from an Israeli standpoint that they see threat; I'd put it differently from a Palestinian perspective; I'd put it in other terms to try to get some level of coexistence.
No one seriously expects to eradicate malaria. If one lives in malarial areas, one uses netting, chemoprophylactic drugs, and insect repellents. If one starts to spike a fever, many tropical disease physicians will assume malaria, and start treating it simultaneously with diagnostic tests.
If one chooses to live in an area where other people are shooting rockets at you, one's government can continue in the development of anti-rocket weapons, such as Arrow, MTHEL, or whatever the system based on Oerlikon automatic cannon can be called. Just as people did on Quemoy and Matsu, rather than leaving, they can choose to live underground.
To suggest that the other side will stop such attacks, without a radical change in the political and economic situation, is as plausible as deciding to eradicate malaria.
I see, however, several posters here suggesting what sounds genocidal to me, as genocidal as spraying the habitat of every mosquito.
Israel is not yet prepared to take the necessary defensive steps to minimize infections, nor is it willing either to make the political changes that might stop much (probably not all) of the attacks, nor is it willing to face squarely that some thinking is indeed genocidal.
Frankly, I see little difference betweent the settlements in the OT, and Gleiwitz.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 5, 2007 2:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
You piece of shrapnel, you are arguing that Israel should have been willing to destroy all of Lebanon and kill everyone there to make Israelis safe in "Haifa and other parts of Israel."
Care to enumerate what those "other parts" might be?
Your bellows of concern make plain your vicious, imperialistic, and genocidal agenda.
May 5, 2007 2:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
To criticize Israel is not to deny its right to exist. However, illegal and immoral use of force lowers Israel's own justification to this right.
I think it is hard to say that the waging of the last incursion into Lebanon was timid when civilians and civil infrastructure, as well as specific economic assets, were targeted throughout the country, much of which had nothing to do with "defeating" or even inhibiting Hizbullah -- as if you can defeat by force a resistance that, essentially, springs from popular support.
I'm sure the Israelis understand this, so the reason for destabilizing the one near-successful democracy, and plunging/bombing a recovering economy and multi-ethnic, multi-religious society back into it's prior tensions and stresses must have been deliberate and condoned by the USA, not to say the vicious, immoral and illegal use of hundreds of thousands of deadly bomblets to presumably punish the people of the area, all this exposes the immorality of Olmert's government's actions.
The Israelis have been trying to teach others to accept wrongs by imposing mistreatment, destruction and death. Hasn't worked for 40 years. Think it will now?
May 5, 2007 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, I don't think anyone should apologize for anything, unless they spontaneously feel they would like to do so. To ask someone to ask if another party thinks you should apologize is one of the more cynical examples of playing the martyr that I have read in recent days. As Mr. Dooley said, "Politics ain't beanball." Say what you mean and don't apologize, unless you do really good Uriah Heep impressions.
"Jew-hater" to those who question Israeli policies is a rather broad brush, Nazi swine. What? You don't like it when I generalize? How terribly, terribly sad. I am desolated. My body flings off its last water in tears, dehydrates, powders, and is lost to the four winds.
From a pure military standpoint, Israel may be indefensible if you want total security, unless it wants to be surrounded by depopulated and poisonous zones, perhaps with a sign "Forbidden Area".
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
Is this what you seek for your neighbors?
"Through me you pass into the city of woe:
Through me you pass into eternal pain:
Through me among the people lost for aye.
Justice the founder of my fabric mov'd:
To rear me was the task of power divine,
Supremest wisdom, and primeval love.
Before me things create were none, save things
Eternal, and eternal I endure.
All hope abandon ye who enter here.
Such characters in colour dim I mark'd
Over a portal's lofty arch inscrib'd:
Whereat I thus: Master, these words import." [George Santayana]
May 5, 2007 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree completely. I understand your analogy of fighting terrorism as a disease and I'm not taking issue with your analogy. I know that you were arguing against Emet18’s “last resort” solution. I was only saying that some, like Emet18, would read it as agreeing with his contention that annihilating Lebanon is one solution to consider if other remedies did not work.
Emet18 proffers the equation: terrorism = Hezbollah = Lebanese, therefore kill all the Lebanese and end terrorism. By equating terrorism with a disease or disease carrier it is easy to define the whole body as the carrier of the infection. In fact, Emt18 is probably right that terrorists could be wiped out by killing everyone. After all, you can kill an infection by killing the patient.
You are replying to Emet18 that it isn’t an answer to kill every Lebanese because others would take up that terrorism against Israel. I guess I'm just saying that the proposition shouldn't be given any credence at all by addressing alternatives. The problem comes from framing solutions in strictly military terms or even medical terms, which ignores the moral questions or, dare I say it- humanism. I guess I didn’t reply directly to Emet18 because I feel that even responding to that kind of intense racial hate with rational arguments just fuels it.
May 5, 2007 4:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I read the article. I'm sorry but I couldn't help just posting the paragraph as is.
May 5, 2007 8:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think, in order to understand why Olmert embarked on this war, it is important to understand his political situation at the time. Olmert was elected on the platform of carrying out a large-scale unilateral withdrawal from Judea/Samaria. He called it, in an Orwellian turn, the "convergence" or "hitkansut" plan. It would have ended up expelling about 80,000-100,000 Jews from their homes. Sharon succeeded in doing the same with 8,000 with minimal resistance from the Right from Gush Katif and the northern Samaria. Sharon's success in neutralizing the opposition rested on his reputation of being a "tough" general, hero of the Six-Day War and Yom Kippur War and someone who would "never compromise the the security of the state". The media and Leftist Establishment have always pushed the line that "the Israeli public likes a tough Prime Minister who bulldozes the opposition to his policies out of the way" (I don't think that is true, but that is the way things are perceived). Sharon fired cabinet minister who opposed him and ended up breaking up his own party and setting up a new one with only hand-picked candidates for the Knesset, unlike other parties who have their public membership choose them. Sharon received great plaudits for doing this, being "tough".
Olmert, on succeeding Sharon as PM, had no such security credentials. He felt he had to establish his reputation in order to push his far more radical plan for a major expulsion of the Jewish population of Judea/Samaria. Just before the election, he hit on the idea of using massive force to destroy nine homes who were claimed to be illegally built in the settlement of Amona.
He sent thousands of police there with order to use maximum force,causing many casualties among the protestors most of whom where teenagers, half of whom were girls.
Although praised by the media for being "decisive", this action caused his popularity to fall in the polls and in the end, although expecting to receive 45 Knesset seats, his Kadima Party got only 29.
Thus, although he formed a coalition, his situation was weak in order to carry out his plan, since some of his coalition partners were not enthusiastic at such a large-scale expulsion.
Thus, when the soldiers were kidnapped on the Lebanese border, Olmert saw a golden opportunity to be "tough", especially after Chief of Staff Halutz assured him that a short, massive aerial assault on Hizbullah would do the trick. So Olmert embarked on war. He said explicity "THE WAR IS BEING CONDUCTED IN ORDER TO BE ABLE TO CARRY OUT THE 'CONVERGENCE' PLAN." Many people, even those not particularly friendly to the Judea/Samaria Jewish settlers thought it was a mistake to say that since they are a high percentage of the combat units.
Well, the rest is history. Thus, those who claim here that Olmert's war was some sort of "grand plan" to knock out the Arabs, really should understand that it was actually intended to enable the Palestinians to get the territory they want to build their state.
May 6, 2007 2:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you. While I disagree with some of your general conclusions, this is an informative perspective.
I'm a little unclear, however, about enabling the Palestinians "to get the territory they want to build their state." When I think of Palestinian territory, I think of the West Bank and Gaza. Did I misunderstand, or was this to take land occupied by Lebanese and mostly considered part of Lebanon, with some disputed areas variously claimed by Lebanon, Israel or Syria?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 6, 2007 7:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
barkochba: Most of your analysis is spot on, until you arrive at this conclusion:
Surely any Israeli politician following in the footsteps of Sharon would have plenty of reason to want to establish his security credentials independent of any concerns about a Palestinian state. Who knows, perhaps the war was even intended by Olmert as a way to extricate himself from Sharon's convergence plan, despite his claims to the contrary. After all, the convergence plan did die with the Lebanon War.
But either way, the goal of the convergence plan was to solve the Israeli "demographic problem," anyway, not to help the Palestinians establish their state. Had there been any real interest by Israel in the establishment of a Palestinian state, the amount of illegal settlement activity in the OT would not have increased after the Gaza withdrawal.
Know your enemy well, for in the end that is who you become. ~~Old Chinese Proverb
May 6, 2007 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
The purpose was to build him a reputation of what Israelis call a "bitchonist", a security-minded leader. If had "won" the war in the way Halutz had promised (a short, sharp, "shock and awe" aerial campaign). He would then have said "you, see, we have nothing to fear from unilateral withdrawals. Once we make this large withdrawal from Judea/Samaria, although it is true that hostile forces will be deployed near our main population centers, we have such overwhelmingly superiority they won't dare to attack us.
Territory is no longer important". Thus,
he believed he would have the political
capital for the massive upheaval of expelling up to 100,000 Israelis from their
homes in Judea/Samaria. Unfortunately for him, it didn't work out that way. Apparently territory is still important.
Back to the drawing board!
May 6, 2007 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I find it difficult to believe that Olmert didn't want to carry out the "hitkansut" plan. Don't forget all the speeches he was making, starting with the famous one in front of MJ's Israeli Policy Forum where he said "we are tired of winning, we are tired of being brave, etc" were saying he was going ahead.
In 1996, when Shimon Peres was running for election in his own right after succeeding Rabin who had been murdered, he also used a rocket attack from Lebanon as an excuse to open an a large-scale assault. His handlers made a point of whisking him up to the front in order to be photographed standing in front of a cannon wearing a flak jacket. In the event, his operation was a complete failure but Israeli casualties were at least light. In any event we see how the biggest "peaceniks" in Israel feel they have to show they are "tough".
May 6, 2007 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I, too, appreciate the information and heartily disagree. I accept your description of events there and believe the media has cheered on the tough guy approach. Your punch line that Olmert's war against Lebanon “was actually intended to enable the Palestinians to get the territory they want to build their state” was hilarious. Nice one!
First, Halutz was not just talking about an aerial assault on Hizbullah but on all of Lebanon.
Second, I fail to see how bombing Lebanon into the stone age advances the Convergence plan. On top of that, I fail to see how the Convergence Plan creates an independent Palestine.
The plan is not about creating a Palestinian state or removing all or even many of the settlements. It consolidates the settlements by annexing them within an iron curtain cutting the Palestinians off from their land, all while continuing the oppression of the Palestinians.May 6, 2007 8:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
barkochba said:
Yes, it's sad how a minority of extremists are able to warp the political process in Israel, just as they do within the Palestinian body politic, or in the U.S. for that matter.
Know your enemy well, for in the end that is who you become. ~~Old Chinese Proverb
May 6, 2007 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Olmert was pushing the Convergence or Realignment plan when he went to war. He addressed both houses of congress here just a couple of months before war with Lebanon, talking up the Realignment plan. But of course, Lebanon was never mentioned in Olmert’s speech . What was emphasized was the dire existential threat that Iran poses to Israel. Lebanon was about Iran as much as anything.
I think you’re absolutely correct that Olmert’s war was about showing he is tough. Believe me, we’re very familiar here with the juvenile, chest-thumping bravado that leaders put on to show they’re powerful, even as far as needlessly invading other countries. The thing is, this tough posturing is about domestic or internal politics. It has nothing to do with reality and the real world outside the country.
May 6, 2007 9:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Part of what puzzles me is the incompetence of the land forces. It doesn't surprise me that an air force general overpromised results. One of the most difficult areas of warfare is getting the various arms to complement one another, and, for whatever reasons, the IDF has never emphasized what the US terms close air support.
Still, the techniques used to counter rocket fire seemed more suited to punishing the locals rather than killing the rocket crews. Armor and armored infantry had no good countermeasures to creative uses of heavy yet man-portable antitank missiles first used in that manner by the Chechens, around 1999. There shouldn't have been such surprises.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 6, 2007 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The thing is, this tough posturing is about domestic or internal politics. It has nothing to do with reality and the real world outside the country.
May 6, 2007 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
But politics IS the real world. Peoples' perceptions of their leaders have a tremendous impact on those leaders' ability to maneuver. The fact is that whatever concessions Israel will eventually need to make to make peace with the Arabs will need to be sold to the public. The reputation and record of those leaders is crucial to their ability to sell, especially if what's being sold involves, in Ariel Sharon's words, "painful concessions."
Just as only a staunch anti-Communist cold warrior like Richard Nixon could go out on a limb and engage with the communist Chinese, so only an Israeli leader with an impeccable record for caring about security can pull off concessions to the Arabs. That's why Ehud Barak was able to do it. That's also why Yitzhak Rabin (who memorably said that the way to put down the first intifada, when he was defense minister, was through "force, might and beatings") was able to do it. Olmert's problem is similar to Shimon Peres's problem - they were not military men and the public could not be sure that they wouldn't give away too much.
May 6, 2007 11:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, US policy toward Israel seems largely driven by domestic or internal politics, with little to do with reality and the real world outside either country. It's probably a nonstarter politically to discuss reductions in aid, contingent on behavior by both sides of the I-P conflict.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 6, 2007 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
op·pro·bri·um
the teacher in me just could not help that. Sorry
May 6, 2007 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Lebanon can't keep Hezbollah under control then Israel is going to do it. They need to be better prepared both militarily and politically.
When? Will the third time be a charm? Have you heard that one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
May 6, 2007 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Lebanon can't keep Hezbollah under control then Israel is going to do it. They need to be better prepared both militarily and politically.
When? Will the third time be a charm? Have you heard that one definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results?
May 6, 2007 9:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those of you who fear early elections will bring Netanyahu to power, or think that "if only Peres were Prime Minister", or "if only the Labor Party were in power", then there would be "peace" with the Palestinians, I suggest you read this opinion peace from Ha'aretz. This will explain why there has been a sharp drop in voter turnout in the elections, it explains why I, as a "right-winger" will not vote in the next election (assuming there is no significant change) and would be happy if Olmert stays in power, and it explains why simply getting rid of Olmert, Halutz and Peretz won't change anything.
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/856318.html
May 6, 2007 9:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
MJ. you were wrong assuming that "the Israeli government knew what it was doing",
but you are even equally wrong assuming that you know what Israeli government should be doing.
You are average mediocre guy like all of us on this blog. What are the chances that you know better than Israeli government. ?
“The good news is that the pro-Israel community is changing.”
Not at all. There is no support whatsoever in pro-Israel community for American congressmen to micromanage military operation of Israeli government.
“And more and more people in the pro-Israel community want their Representatives to speak up when they perceive our (or Israel's) policies to be damaging – [skip] and damaging to Israel.”
There is no support for this. American Jews, including Jews critical to some of the actions of Israeli government do not want their Representatives to oversight or supervise Israeli government.
Your attidude is exception.
May 6, 2007 10:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you consider it "micromanagement" for US citizens and government representatives to complain about -- and consider aid sanction -- over Israeli use of weapons in violation of the terms and conditions of those weapons sales? Do you consider it "micromanagement" when the heavily censored available data on Israeli anti-rocket tactics were significantly at odds with US practices, when those US practices are both intended to give the highest chance of killing the rocket crew, but minimizing civilian casualties?
By violations, I refer to the use of M26 unguided rockets, with cluster submunition warheads, from the M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). The US Army and many other national users are stopping, or cutting back, the use of cluster munitions because they create an effective minefield. Those weapons were sold to Israel on the understanding that they would be used only on troops in the open, away from civilians?
Even with the improved M30 guided version, the US is generally switching to the XM31 unitary (i.e., non-cluster) warhead rocket. Israel asked for resupply of M26 rockets, and I believe aircaft-delivered cluster bombs.
US doctrine against rockets fired from civilian areas is based around backtracking their launch point, while in flight, with radars (of which Israel has some) such as the AN/TPQ-36, AN/TPQ-37, or LCMR. In Iraq, these are used with prepositioned ground and helicopter patrols in the likely launch area, so the crew can be ambushed and even captured.
If it is impossible to put patrols into the area, as would have been the case in Lebanon, US doctrine would be to fire M109 155mm howitzers, probably a salvo of six shells, at and around the predicted launch site. These shells would have M107 unitary warhead -- a single big boom with blast and fragments, but no remaining submunitions. Since the time of aiming and flight is faster on a M109 than a M270, the crew has less time to get away.
How is it "micromanagement" when anyone knowledgeable in American weapons used can tell they are being used in a way that does not remotely attempt to minimize civilian casualties?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 7, 2007 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
So Davai says, "MJ, You are average mediocre guy like all of us on this blog. What are the chances that you know better than Israeli government."
I don't know whether MJ is mediocre or not although he is one hell of a writer whose stuff is everywhere.
But I have no doubt that Davai is mediocre (I've read his posts).
And why would he assume that the Israeli government is not mediocre. I am sure he thinks the American government is. But, come on, Davai, isn't the Israeli government at leat as mediocre as the American government or are you blinded by patriotic loyalty to the home country you choose not to live in.
May 7, 2007 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if it's projection or not, but I have observed, when I've posted specifics dealing with Israeli military operations, he brushes them aside with "don't take yourself seriously," "you don't know more than the rest of us," or similar rejections of independently verifiable information.
I don't know if this is a compulsion to trust the Government of Israel, The Leader, such as GWB, or just a response when he has none other.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 7, 2007 9:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
Olmert wasn't simply chest-beating for domestic consumption. (A better example of that would be Shimon Peres' "Grapes of Wrath" offensive that led to the first Qana tragedy.) The whole logic to Convergence was that Israel could achieve greater long-term security through withdrawal, internal and external legitimacy and deterrance as opposed to occupation. Hezbollah's attacks across the international border came in the context of the Palestinian attacks from the evacuated settlements in Gaza. Olmert believed that only an overwhelming response would restore public confidence in the merits of unilateral withdrawal.
Olmert's botching of the response has now discredited Convergence. This is a shame, because the fundamental arguments supporting it still stand: (1) Israel needs clear borders with a clear Jewish majority; (2) Palestinians need to have the prospect of a contiguous state presented as a real alternative to violence and rejectionism; and (3) progress towards a two-state solution cannot wait for the Palestinians to produce a genuine negotiating partner.
The best alternative in the short run is to implement a modified Convergence plan with a "settlers out, soldiers in approach" in which the isolated settlements are dismantled, but the IDF holds on the various chunks of the West Bank until a responsible force can be found/created to take over patrolling the territory.
May 7, 2007 2:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The "settlers out soldiers in" approach makes sense to me, coupled with, or migrating to, unmanned observation posts run by international organizations, with real-time feeds to both sides, the peacekeepers, and perhaps news media.
With respect to the idea of a contiguous Palestinian state, how would the West Bank and Gaza be connected?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 7, 2007 3:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
In the long term, a high-speed rail link might be the best best (an elevated highway might cause more problems.)
However, stabilization of both the West Bank and Gaza by someone other than the Israelis has to happen first. Unmanned observation posts aren't going to stop Qassams from being launched. Egyptian and Jordanian forces (under an Arab League mandate) might.
May 7, 2007 3:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you're thinking of a transportation link between the West Bank and Gaza, rather than actual land?
As far as the rocket threat, there are systems in development, either all-Israeli or US-Israeli, that might have a decent chance of intercepting Qassam/GRAD family rockets. I can see these (MTHEL or the system based on Oerlikon 35mm autocannon, and possibly Arrow for larger targets) being run unmanned, with periodic servicing.
Unmanned observation posts could give faster positioning of the launch site, and, with appropriate links to artillery, could put a precision-guided round onto the launch site in short seconds. This would be superior to a salvo of 155mm airbursts and far superior to using cluster munitions.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 7, 2007 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"And why would he assume that the Israeli government is not mediocre. I am sure he thinks the American government is."
Such a mediocre thought.
There is no such thing as war crime or mediocre
goverment or mediocre writer. You always have to grade on curve.
May 7, 2007 11:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard,
If you have an advice on the more effective use of American weapons, please don't hesitate to contact Israeli goverment or parlament or Winograd commision.
As you might know Israel is very good at correcting mistakes.
Given that you never wrote about use of
American weapons by American forces, I assume that you don't see any problems.
May 7, 2007 11:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
As you know I agreed with you that Israel as well as all other contries in the world made mistakes in military operations and broke some international rules and regulations.
The two examples that you obsessed and repeat over and over again possibly are examples of such broken rules.
May 8, 2007 12:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is good of you to admit that. I wish more Israelis like Yossi Beilin, Peace Now & the progressive Zionist community would speak so openly of similar mistakes.
But you make a mistake by implying that all progressive Zionists supported this war. I didn't and my voice was constantly shouting through my blog for sanity that never came regarding the war.
I never assume any government "knows what it's doing" when it does something as grave as start a war (unless it proves itself worthy of trust). I didn't feel that way about our own government regarding the Iraq war & felt even less trusting in Israel's war in Lebanon.
For the life of me, I don't understand why progressive Jews & Israelis didn't "get" that this war was a disaster right fr. the beginning. There was a sort of collective lock step mentality: "the nation is in danger we must surrender our political will to the collective & get into line behind the leader."
Instead, Israel needed independent thinking. There was little of that.
And we must also criticize the American progressives such as Kos who threw up his hands in despair at making any sense of the whole Hezbollah-Israel mess & said "a pox on both yr houses." This of course played into the hands of Israel since if netroots "progressives" like him sat on their hands during the war, this gave the IDF carte blanche to work their will on Lebanon. What U.S. official or Congressional rep would speak up against the carnage if U.S. liberals wouldn't even do so.
It was a pathetic political abdication. We must do better. If there is a next war (and the way things are going can we doubt there will be?) we must speak out more strongly w. a more unified voice. I hope I'm not a Jewish voice in the wilderness like I felt last summer.
Richard Silverstein
Tikun Olam>
May 8, 2007 1:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am afraid that "wishful thinking" is not a substitute for a sober look at the situation. Since the failure of the Oslo Agreements as a result of the terror war Arafat launched in October 2000, and the subsequent failure of the Sharon/Olmert/Kadima attempt to unilaterally create a Palestinian state by means of a unilateral withdrawal, people have been groping for a way out. Shlomo Ben-Ami and others then hit upon the idea you state here, i.e. foreign forces will come in , take over the Palestinians areas, subdue them and give them a state. Only problem is that there is no chance this will ever happen. For example, why should the Egyptians come into Gaza and "clean it up"? It is heavily armed THANKS TO EGYPT so do you really believe that they will then send troops in the fight the same people they armed? And why should they do Israel a favor by doing this? Egypt, in spite of the phony "peace treaty" openly views Israel as hostile state (similar to the Cold War situation between the US and USSR, i.e. there were full diplomatic relations between the two, but undisguised hostility and confrontation). Egypt, being a police state, knows very well what arms are sent into Gaza and wants them there. Egypt is carrying out a proxy war against Israel from Gaza the way Syria does from Lebanon by way of Hizbullah, while keeping their own direct border with Israel on the Golan Heights quiet (WITHOUT a peace agreement, I might add). Thus, to expect Egypt to want to "help" Israel by pacifying Gaza is totally unrealistic. The Arab League is not going to send troops, either. If you think they will out of some "love" for their Palestinian "brothers", then why haven't they done the same for the Somalis who are involved in long-running fratricidal civil war? What did the Arab League do about the sanguinary Lebanese and Algerian civil wars? What did they do about Saddam's genocidal repression of the Iraqi Shi'ites ? NOTHING. So why would anyone think they would stick their necks out to help Israel?
Regarding the Europeans, forget it. You might claim that UNIFIL is in southern Lebanon watching the "cease-fire" between Israel and Hizbullah, but they are only observers, they are not empowered to disarm anyone or enforce the truce. As for a "active" force that will pacify the Palestinians, I suggest you look up the subject called "Iraq". 'Nuff said?
No one is going to step in, "straighen out the Palestinians" and guarantee Israel's security. Everyone seems to think some sort of "rational compromise" can be worked out if only the right verbiage can be found, but this is an illusion.
Only Israel can guarantee its own security.
May 8, 2007 2:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Obsess"? Hardly. "Repeat"? Definitely. Would you have me say once that the Bush 43 administration was naughty, and then stop mentioning its behavior? I believe a more rational behavior is to continue to criticize one's own Administration until it is replaced or its behavior changes.
Since Israel is unwilling to have public discussion of the issues in Lebanon, and the US sales agreements were violated, I will continue to call for the US to limit arms sales and financial aid until and unless Israel changes its benavior. I will also call for such sanctions until I see settlements in the Territories replaced with military observation posts and defenses against rockets, run initially by Israelis but with the possibility of introducing international forces capable of actually interfering with attacks.
Until the broken rules are repaired, why should I stop pointing at them? Have you noticed that once Americans expressed their criticism of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, they continue, to use your term, to "obsess" about policies toward Iraq -- and I applaud them doing so.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 8, 2007 3:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am not an Israeli citizen, so it is not my obligation to advise the Israeli government on techniques that come in the manuals with the US weapons. No, I do not know Israel is very good at correcting mistakes. In point of fact, it suffered badly in Lebanon from tactics known to military observers at least since 1999.
I may have a chance, as a US citizen, to have my government deliver a stronger message to Israel by cutting off, at the very least, supplies of, and support for, weapons Israel has used irresponsibly. I believe that would give a much stronger message to the Israeli government, with which I have no channels of communication.
In point of fact, I have written about the US assessment of cluster munitions, and the retirement of the M26 rockets used by Israel, the very limited use of the more accurate M30 cluster munitions, and the migration of MLRS warheads to the non-cluster unitary-warhead XM31. I have written about US doctrine against rocket fire from populated areas, an ever-changing doctrine that is generally reasonable. According to the Field Artillery journal, the preferred anti-rocket technique is to localize the firing point with Firefinder or LCMR radar, and then move airmobile and vehicle-borne infantry against it, rather than artillery of any type.
The International Military Tribunal at Nuremberg generally rejected the defense of tu quoque, roughly translated as "you do it too!" In point of fact, for every specific claim I have made of Israeli inappropriate use, I can cite a US technique, with the same or replacement weapons, intended to minimize civilian casualties.
Are US doctrines and tactics perfect? Of course not. Nevertheless, you consistently ignore my references to US techniques that are specific alternatives to the Israeli methods, so your claim that I never wrote about use of American weapons by American forces is either evidence of poor reading skills or outright lying.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 8, 2007 3:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Richard,
You might be right or might be wrong.
However, your, and MJ points of view have very little support in Israel and in American Jewish community
Therefore people like you or MJ are trying to enter an unholy alliance with enemies of Israel and enemies of Jews in order to force on Israel your vision.
You will fail. American people will not support you.
Look, even in France where there is a large Arab/Muslim population and where is a small Jewish community without “Jewish lobby” people elected a president who is openly and proudly pro-Israel.
May 8, 2007 7:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Have you noticed that once Americans expressed their criticism of the 2003 invasion of Iraq"
I haven’t noticed any discussions about civilian casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan.
I don’t think American people know or really care about casualties.
I haven’t notice any discussions by liberal politicians or activists or any oversight hearing by congress to find out if American forces in Iraq and Afghanistan are using the weapon systems in a way that minimized civilian casualties.
May 8, 2007 7:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Again, you change the subject from a specific violation of the appropriate techniques and of the sales agreement for certain weapons. In point of fact, MLRS was not used in Afghanistan because it was not appropriate for that conflict. It was used in Iraq and Kuwait in 1991, with M26 rockets, and, while effective when used against troops, left enough dangerous duds that the US began backing away from the use of the M26. AFAIK, no M26 rockets were used in 2003, a limited number of M30s, and primarily non-cluster XM31s.
Next time you attempt to change the subject, I suggest you change it with a discussion as specific as I am using. Perhaps you haven't noticed such hearings because the military itself started the process of withdrawing a weapon unsafe for all.
If you haven't noticed American criticism of civilian casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan, you must have a remarkably narrow range of reading. The issue has been discussed at length, and there have been changes in tactics to reduce them. For example, where the IAF has been using high explosives against electrical power systems, the US started using carbon-filament cruise missiles in 1991, weapons which short out transmission systems in a way that can be repaired fairly easily. Additional versions of carbon filament weapons were subsequently used in the Balkans.
Whether or not the US considers reducing aid to Israel will be based on Israeli actions and the US political climate, not tu quoque defenses that the US is just as bad. In point of fact, US counter-rocket doctrine in Iraq is quite different than Israeli procedure.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]
May 8, 2007 8:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Again, you change the subject from a specific violation of the appropriate techniques and of the sales agreement for certain weapons. "
I'm not changing the subject.
I agreed long time ago that probably Israel violated some rules and regulations.
You changed the subject. You mentioned Iraq, not me.
And I'm saying that there were no discussions about milirary tactics in current Iraq and Afganistan wars.
"If you haven't noticed American criticism of civilian casualties in Iraq or Afghanistan, you must have a remarkably narrow range of reading. "
Any pointers ?
Also can you compare the volume of that
criticism to criticism of Israel.
Is this 1 : 1000, 1 :10000 ?
May 8, 2007 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
You speak for such a tiny percentage of American Jews that NOT ONE SINGLE MEMBER OF CONGRESS WHO IS NOT A NUTCASE WILL HAVE ANYTHING TO DO WITH YOU
May 8, 2007 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Although this is not directly related to the subject of MJ' article, since the "Israeli occupation" of Judea/Samaria is a popular subject here, I have decided to post this article written by Danny Rubinstein of Ha'aretz. I don't know if it was really intention to make this point, but he clearly states that the best situation for the Arabs of Judea/Samaria in order for them to have peace and prosperity is to be under "Israeli occupation".
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/857308.html
The best examples are Hevron (as he points out in this article) and Jerusalem. Only part of Hevron is under direct Israeli control (the part where the Jews live) but the strong military presence keeps the Arab part of the town quiet as well. Of course the 200,000 or so Arabs of Jerusalem are living under direct Israeli control there, too. No gang wars, no FATAH/HAMAS battles, no anti-secular terror by Islamic militants, etc.
May 10, 2007 12:59 AM | Reply | Permalink