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Blue yonder? Blue under!

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The new federal budget reflects the same old misallocation of funds between space exploration and oceanic exploration; this misallocation has dominated national efforts for decades.

For fiscal year 2007 NASA is allotted $9.8 billion while the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration is only given $2.6 billion; the difference for 2008 is even larger, respectively $10.5 billion and $2.7 billion. (Caveat: NASA has a tiny Office of Ocean Exploration)

Despite the fact that the oceans cover more than 70% of the Earth, less than 5% of them have been mapped with the same degree of detail as Mars, and that was before the two most recent Mars rovers, Spirit and Opportunity, landed. We have rarely ventured below 6,500 meters in the oceans, although they reach more than 11,000 meters deep. We know much less about the ocean floor and the deepest layers of the oceans than we know about either side of the moon. And yet, the potential payoffs are huge.

Pundits gush over the fact that space exploration has led to its share of new technology – for instance, NASA says the coatings that allow space capsules to withstand the heat of reentry have been used in building better pots and pans, and the miniaturization demanded by the small quarters on space vehicles has advanced such fields as laparoscopic surgery. But deep-sea expeditions could yield similar and perhaps even greater benefits. In order to freely explore the oceans' deepest reaches, we must learn to construct submersibles that can handle extreme pressure, as much as 18,000 pounds per square inch. The resulting materials and techniques might help us design and construct homes that can withstand being buried in debris after an earthquake or a mudslide.

I hope you are not one of those Americans who hears NASA talking about life on Mars and imagines that we may find little green men who will ally themselves with us against the Chinese. The reference is merely to cells of organic material that may be present in the planet's dust and rock. In contrast, the deep oceans are packed with complex, mysterious, intriguing creatures. In fact, it is estimated that there might be up to 2 million marine life forms that are yet to be discovered. Whenever we venture deeper, we find new species such as lithistids, a rare kind of sponge present only in deep waters. Such discoveries are likely to reveal secrets of life on Earth and even make up for other species that are being lost due to human expansion on the surface.

Mars' organic limits mean that it is hardly a place to look for new medicines, unless one wishes to carry red mud millions of miles back to Beverly Hills so that we can all get Martian facials. But like jungles, deep-water habitats teem with life and contain the promise of new drugs and new cures for diseases. In what are still largely unexplored deep-water reef communities, the Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institution in Ft. Pierce, Fla., has already discovered what is believed to be an anti-tumor agent (discodermolide); its value for humans is being tested now in clinical trials.

And there may be other answers under the sea to Earth's pressing problems. Scientists believe that organisms in the deep oceans can consume the methane that is seeping through the ocean floor and convert it into energy for themselves. Some theorize that we could learn to harvest such energy for our own use.

And how do Martian finds compare? I don't know about you, but the discovery that dust on Mars is finer than previously thought or that water once may have flowed down its barren craters doesn't bowl me over. Even the seas' more obvious secrets are much richer – for instance, sunken ships. Consider the Swedish warship Vasa, which sank in 1628. Raised in the 1960s, it now tells us things about where we came from, what life was like for our forebears and how far we've come.

Perhaps most important, the oceans are not merely the major part of our environment -- they are integral to its systems. They greatly affect the climate and the conditions that allow life as we know it to survive. And yet we have almost turned some seas -- the Mediterranean, for instance -- into garbage dumps. We need to study and measure the health of oceans because it is essential for our own well-being.

Those who believe that we can draw inspiration only from walking on the moon and not from diving into the oceans may be too young to remember the admiration with which many millions followed the explorations of Jacques Cousteau. All we need is a good race with other nations -- measured by how much ocean we cover and who can find more goodies faster -- and ocean exploration will be all the rage.

So let's get going -- down, not up. If I had a car, its bumper sticker would read: "Blue yonder? Blue under!"

(An earlier version of this text was published in the Los Angels Times)


54 Comments

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There is no doubt that there should be more spending on Ocean exploration and understanding. However, it should not come out of NASA. The spending on exploration and scientific understanding is a pittance of the budget and especially of the economy. It would be worth finding money from a few pointless or non-working programs to spend more in these areas.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

I agree that there's an imbalance. I suppose I'm grateful that space exploration has a way of publicizing and glamorizing science and thus perhaps in the end stimulating work and moneys across the sciences.  I always thought that the Sputnik generation had something like that in mind.  I'm also grateful that, along with NOAA, NASA has also been very good at public communication on issues of planet Earth, too, using the excuse of its Earth-directed satellite observations to make a fuss about global warming, say.   Not that Bush cares about science....

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

I am totally in agreement that more basic and applied research needs to go toward the oceans. It's interesting to note that the Navy has always had oceanographers supporting their missions, and that the Office of Naval Research is one of the better places to have ocean research funded. There are some interesting swords-into-plowshares projects as the supersecret underwater detection systems such as SOSUS are providing scientific research data.

There's little positive in this Administration. A scientist colleague quit her government job in total frustration, in that White House operatives assigned to her agency were insisting that certain government-funded research was not to be published, because its results might offend the American Association of Retired Persons. That same White House operative demanded a monthly report on how much contract and grant money went to faith-based institutions, without regard to their qualifications.

Still, an idealized model would balance the "big science" projects over multiple disciplines that receive Federal funding. Deep space missions do return fundamental data, but are extremely expensive. High-energy physicists use multibillion dollar research instruments; there are considerable opportunities for international funding in this area. There's certainly research room for a testbed for the "Internet-after-next". NASA is not the only budget to address.

There is also a good deal of mission-directed research, principally in the military but also in the Centers for Disease Control, National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, assorted safety groups in Transportation, and NIH-funded clinical research.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

I couldn't agree more. The more you read about Space exploration, the more it starts coming off as a mere stunt. Like "hey, let's see if we can go over Niagra Falls in a barrell!"

I love the rationale behind the (useless) international space station - "Hey it gives the cosmonauts SOMETHING TO DO." I mean that literally. Clinton was concerned to keep the Soviet nee Russian space program busy and employed.

I have a PHD friend who makes an argument like DanielGree's - don't cut NASA because at least it's 'science.'

My problem is that the 'science' has to be about boyhood fantasies. Did you know it was actually Trekkies who got NASA to name one shuttle "Enterprise" - God that's just embarrassing. How about we namem our next astronaut Flash Gordon?

Then you get the arguments about "man's quest for discovery" - that's some pretty thin ground, and it's always made as a last resort because all of the other arguments for having cool spaceships have failed.

No way it should come out of NASA's budget - NASA is already underfunded. They need a major boost just to get the next generation of orbital vehicles operational because the shuttle is to space exploration what the pony express is to international communications. It is an aging vehicle that becomes more dangerous with each launch. There'll be another shuttle disaster if we keep using it much longer, and when it happens, can we really call it a disaster if it is both foreseen and avoidable? No, it's a tragedy.

Deep ocean exploration is also needed, for all the reasons cited in the article, plus a few that aren't. For example, a stable deep ocean environment would be the ultimate refuge in the event of a global catastrophe. Some have theorized that this is the real drive behind lunar and Martian colonization. I believe it was none other than Stephen Hawking who recently stated that deep space exploration and colonization is vital to the continuation of the human species, as it would only take one big asteroid or comet to wipe us out. The first step to space colonization is ocean colonization, as this is the real-time environment where you learn to deal with the problems inherent in space colonization, and if the asteroid comes sooner rather than later, it would ensure the survival of our species long enough to develop the technologies needed to permanently live in space.

The most obvious place to get the funding is from the defense budget. This is our largest source of wasted spending, eclipsing every other wasteful project in the entire federal budget. But that will require a radical realignment of our political priorities. People will live on the moon and the ocean floor before we divert a dime from the building of new aircraft carriers.

Gravity sucks, and water is really hard to breathe. Once upon a time, 'back in the day', before there were big government agencies with 9 figure budgets and mysterious-sounding names, Dirk Pitt wannabe's had to kind of venture forth on their own to investigate the Deep Blue Under,
and, what with pressure and whatnot being and doing what they do, it's really hard to go very deep without being squished like a bean without a really good deep sea vessel, and frankly, when you get to the bottom of the sea, it's really dark, not much to see, and you're probably more likely to face certain death in the event of a problem than if you were kiting around out in outer space like a castaway NASA wrench etc.

I'm for seeing more private exploration of both sea and space, I think people like Dick Rutan are the 21st century pioneers who have their heads and their hearts in the right place, let's have a lot more of that, please...

<SNARK ALERT>

See, that's the problem with you egghead peaceniks!

We already have weapons systems strewn about the oceans, so their covered. What we need now is to have the "High Frontier" secured. Didn't you read about the commies in China shooting at a satellite like the one we just put up last week to sniff out missle launches? We have a "High Frontier Gap" and we need more money, not less, into the militarization of space before them commies and mooslims beat us to it!

Just think what would happen if the "Red Hammer" or the "Red Crescent of Jihadi Death" would fall on us from outer space. If we have all our systems up their first, see, then we win and they lose. It's as simple as that.

Henry Kissinger told me so.

</SNARK ALERT>

Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran

Spread the word. There's danger on the low frontier.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Shouldn't someone ask what that next generation of orbital vehicles is going to be used for? Other than "gee wizz we have some people in space".

Oceans, about 70% of the earth's surface--less than $3 billion per year

Iraq, about 0.09% of the earth's surface--about $200 billion per year

I think the combined budget of NASA and NOAA is less than monies the Pentagon has lost track of (small change in military budget terms).

Link

 

"According to some estimates we cannot track $2.3 trillion in transactions," Rumsfeld admitted.

They need a major boost just to get the next generation of orbital vehicles operational

Why?

I have to agree with others who say it shouldn't be an "either or" choice between NASA and NOAA.  Both are significantly and woefully underfunded.

And I kinda take offense of the belittling of supporters of the space program by insinuating finding life on other planets is about our search for "little green men".  It's a shame that chracterizations of the space program and exploration of our solar system has descended to that level of misrepresentation...even if just in an effort to make a point. :-(

I believe your answer is in my comment above.

Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran

I'm not buying that it's a military motive. I think "manned space exploration" creates a lot of political support even though it doesn't acomplish much useful. That and the inertia of a gcvernment agency.

Mr. Etzioni writes:

Whenever we venture deeper, we find new species such as lithistids, a rare kind of sponge present only in deep waters. Such discoveries are likely to reveal secrets of life on Earth and even make up for other species that are being lost due to human expansion on the surface. (my emphasis).

Be the first on your block to own a pet lithistid.  (I wonder if they can be housebroken?)  :-)

aMike

Just substitute "China" for "Soviet Union" here.

NASA has always been just a hairs-breadth from complete militarization, and with the SDI barely able to hit a barn with a BB, the next orbiter needs to be a little more, ah..."flexible".

Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran

Maybe they can teach us all how to deal with......wait for it.......

pressure ;<)

Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran

Because if space exploration is your goal, then continuing use of the aging and dangerous shuttle is contrary to that goal?

They're is going to be a next generation. The question is when. The sooner the better. I'd much rather spend money on space exporation than bombing people back to the stone age so we can steal their natural resources and fulfill the grade-school fantasies of our cowboy politicians.

There are some who would argue that searching for life on Mars is, in effect, searching for the origin of life on earth.

I'm not saying. I'm just saying. People who think we're spending billions of dollars to look for fossil microbes on another planet really are gullible. There's some pretty good evidence that there is current life of Mars - the possible presence of methane in the atmosphere being a good example.

I don't understand why there needs to be a "deep space vs. deep ocean exploration" trade-off. While we don't necessarily need a manned space station to study space, we do need to study space if only to know when then next big asteroid hit could occur. And while its presently just the realm of bad Bruce Willis movies, there may come a time that we need to protect ourselves, and we may just need some sort of manned presence there to accomplish that.

At the same time, yes we should be studying the deep ocean. However I do have to wonder if our ignorance of what's down there just might be keeping us from messing it up in the name of progress.

-Dave Adams-

Here is the deal and JMS puts it well: If we don't escape the Solar System nothing any of us has ever done means shit. Not Einstein, not Buddha, not Darwin. It might just as well never have happened.

Perpetuation of the species is the #1 priority and escaping into space is the only way to do it.

I do not disagree with Tsolkiovsky's comment, "The earth is the cradle of mankind, but man cannot live in the cradle forever." If that is taken as the land as the cradle, there are reasons to explore low and high. There is potential crossover, in learning to operate with minimum solar energy applies both at the bottom of the Marianas Trench and in Jovian space. Working under pressure also applies to those environments.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

How about we study space instead of a Star Wars program?

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

It would be interesting to find out if more has been learned about the oceans from deep submarines or from satellites. I'd bet on the latter.

Different kind of information, really, and there are other sources such as oceanographic ships, surveillance aircraft, and data that starts to be available from sensitive military sensors such as hydrophone and seismic networks.

The satellites give, for example, a better idea of temperature and probably currents, although floating buoys help with the latter. Submarines, however, give much of the biological information and details of the ocean floor.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Libertine kinda take[s] offense of the belittling of supporters of the space program by insinuating finding life on other planets is about our search for "little green men".


I would have more sympathy for this argument if that were not how NASA marketed its space program. I am pretty tired of the perennial articles on how we have almost found life on Mars and we just need one last push.

MNPundit suggests [p]erpetuation of the species is the #1 priority and escaping into space is the only way to do it.


I guess we have to hope that the Big Bang is not mirrored by a Big Crunch.

JeffC writes that we need a next-generation shuttle [b]ecause if space exploration is your goal, then continuing use of the aging and dangerous shuttle is contrary to that goal?.


The reality is that if space exploration is your goal then the last thing you should do is send people along with the instruments. People just get in the way and make the exploration far more expensive.

What colore said.

Isn't that a surge?

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

True lunacy is pitting the one against the other. Is there an area of study that is more worthy than another?

We must keep close watch on the oceans since if they suffer we're in deep trouble. But underwater habitats are actually more difficult, in some ways, than hard vacuum, and would not provide protection aginst a large impactor, whose likely impact site would be one of the oceans.

And of course we will eventually find our way into the rest of the solar system, and beyond. The question is only who gets there first and best. Would we prefer the Chinese to be the first to exploit the asteroids' resources? Or to set up orbital power stations?

"Boy fantasies" developed airplanes along with penicillin, and symphonies along with weapons. The greatest achievement of humans, when viewed from outside by another civilization, would be the Hubble Space telescope. This because it expanded our knowledge of the Universe by orders of magnitude, dwarfing Galileo and even Mt. Palomar.

In recent centuries, empires were founded on surveys and exploration of unknown lands. Surveyors tend to end up rich, as a result of being there first. (England, France, Spain, and Portugal all supported astronomy research to aid navigation and exploration.) Do we want to beg at the table? The same argument applies to other areas of study, from alternative power to genetics. We can act "sensible" or lead. And consider that the Iraq adventure ( a better example of boy fantasy) would pay for many years of space exploration.

Lastly, as a friend of scientists I am sympathetic to arguments against manned exploration, but data is not the same as on-the-"ground" experience, and eyes on-site will see things robotic probes will miss. There is a proper order to exploration, which starts with remote study, by visual, radio, and radar. Probes follow. But until one goes there, it is only data.

Want to learn about dancing or join the party?

Men in space are and will always be irrelevant when discussing potential asteroid or comet impacts on the earth. Discovering those, determining their paths through space, predicting if and when they might hit the earth, are all activities accomplished on earth, not in space. Any efforts to prevent suct impacts will also be earth based, since enormous amounts of energy are needed no matter what scheme is used to deflect them away from us, and that energy isn't likely to ever be more available in space than on earth.

The discovery of extra-terrestrial life is a very good goal for science. Discovering such life on Mars, or the moon, or the moons of the gaseous planets is also a very good goal for science. The life that might be there is not what we would recognize as life, but that isn't a reason not to look for it. None of that requires men in space, and all are handicapped by the presence of men in space, largely becausse the expense of the research goes up by orders of magnitude when you insist on including men in space along with it.

The space station is there because we wanted to show the nasty commies how great we are compared to them. Now we have international committments to honor, so we have to complete it, even though it is extremely unlikely ever to return anything on the investment.

As far as the oceans are concerned, I can't believe there could even be a rational doubt that it is more important to know our own planet than to know other planets. It is good to know all of them, but the priority should certainly be our own home planet.

Hoppy in Sacramento

To me, this is kind of a variation on the old "If we can put a man on the moon, why don't we solve X social ill?" argument.

It misses the point.

Yes, we should know more about the oceans.

We should also know more about the universe.

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

Reality Check:

Cost of NASA: 5 weeks in Sunny Iraq

Cost of NOAA: 1 week and late Sunday check-out in Sunny Iraq.

Finding another life form off-world, cracking extremophile energy processes at the bottom of the ocean:

Priceless.

Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran

Just give them another 6-9 months. Instead of surrendering to a lifeless Mars.

Oh my, this is fun... this is going to be how I have all my arguments from now on!

"No, baby, I will not surrender to having Chinese food tonight! Give me another 6-9 months to find a suitable Italian restaurant, or the terrorists win!"

thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

The god-awful small affair to the girl with the mousy hair is probably the best hope of finding life on mars.

You know what? If a person can talk about space exploration being a waste of resources, and not vomit uncontrollably at the thought of a 585 billion dollar military budget (with another 100 billion in pseudo-military add ons - nuclear weapons, spy satellites, intelligence agencies, coast guard, etc. etc.)...

Well, hell with it, I just don't want to talk to that person. We got nothing to say to each other.

There's no point of intersection, no grounds for meeting of the minds, no compromise.

I'm human, the other guy is a f*cking australopithecus, and not one of the bright ones that evolved into anything important.

Nuff said.

Some conversations do not happen. Got it?

Of course in BushWorld, it only makes sense to ensure that funding for scientific research goes to religious institutes.

I hope you are not one of those Americans who hears NASA talking about life on Mars and imagines that we may find little green men who will ally themselves with us against the Chinese.

Well…I thought that being green they would be natural enemies against the reds.

I know this has been said, but the ocean is our environment and, so, directly affects our life. We came out of the ocean and in a sense we sill live in it. I never did that well in science class, but I know it’s a foundational part of our geologic, hydrologic and weather systems. It’s an essential part of the global ecosystem and will be a more important source of food, minerals and energy as time goes on (if we don't destroy it first). The global warming tipping point will probably be a rise in sea level that causes mass destruction.

Space exploration like all exploration is important but a broader knowledge of the universe or interventions (other than military) will have little direct effect on our environment. Technological inventions are a bonus with any basic science investment. Of course it’s ridiculous having these kind of Sophie’s choices over funding for basic scientific investigation. But politicians decide these priorities and I'm sure that politicians will lead us to our demise someday. By the way, whatever happened to those Bush $billions for the trip to Mars and the hydrogen car?

NASA is today and in the past an extension of our military spending. It could be compared to Hughe’s Glomar Explorer. The ship that was built to raise a Russian sub, but we were told it was to mine the ocean floor.

The shuttle Columbia demise was followed by an announcement about the space program going back to capsules like in the beginning. A replacement like the old Saturn rocket is planned also.

The reason is that it takes some heavy lifting for the militarization planned for the future of space. It also takes a large power source for a military laser in space. This is why NASA is pushing a program to use nuclear power in space.

What is unknown about NASA is why a $26.6 million dollar payment to the astronauts' families?

Columbia’s astronauts died Feb. 1, 2003. The astronauts are military officers. The big difference between NASA and the military is when Columbia’s crew was lost the families were given $26.6 million dollars in 2003.

This was just discovered by a freedom of information request. The government cannot be sued for negligence without its approval for the suit. This is a unique payment for NASA.

What were the bases for this payment?

Why did NASA feel obligated to pay this large sum of money and try to keep the payment quiet?

Dare one speculate?

-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking

Our knowledge of the universe is expanded by unmanned satellite missions, not by manned missions. It is true that the space telescope would have been nearly useless without manned repair and refurbishment missions, and that telescope has contributed greatly to our understanding of the universe. By contrast, the space station hasn't contributed at all to that knowledge that I have heard. So, on a knowledge per dollar spent basis, there isn't the slightest justification for the space station, nor of a manned mission back to the moon, nor a manned mission to Mars.

Hoppy in Sacramento

If I remember correctly, sometime during the early exploration of Mars America landed a robot on that plantet's surface and a TV image began slowly to build up on monitors at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Once completly assembled, the stark forbidding picture prompted someone in attendance to lament: "I guess that shows that there is no life on Mars." To which premature remark, I think, Arthur C. Clark or Ray Bradbury responded: "Correction: there is now." The human colonization of another world began on that day. We just haven't gotten far enough along in the process to realize it.

Certainly, we need to explore and understand our oceans more than we now do. Certainly we should spend more money to do that research. But since Jupiter's moon Europa and other of our planetary neighbors possess at least as much, if not more water than our own oceans, then understanding oceans everywhere in the solar system will help us understand much more than just studying ONLY our own planetary bodies of water.

Surely we need to explore more of everything, everywhere; and we need to spend more money doing so. We need to upgrade our science and math curricula in the public schools to help us produce the explorers who will expand our knowledge and physical presence throughout the depths and heights of various planetary environments.

We obviously face a crunch in that we don't have unlimited resources to do all these things, but without a doubt cutting our obese Warfare Welfare and Makework Militarism Lunatic Leviathan down to size can at least free up enough resources to expand both our space and oceanographic research programs. We can obviously do a whole lot better than we have to date.

Humanity started leaving this planet to exapand elsewhere decades ago. True, we haven't finished finding out all about this world, for sure, but what remains for us to discover and utilize on other worlds simply dwarfs by orders of magnitude what we could possibly learn about and use from studying only this one. We have a lot here. We have vastly more elsewhere. I would think that such a common-place statement should hardly require repeating 500 years after Gallileo turned his newly discovered telescope not upon any nearby body of water, but upwards and outwards toward the stars.

I do agree with you, Hoppy. At some point, we'll probably want to have a manned interplanetary mission but the big questions that need answering will be answered by probes and newer space telescopes. For that, something like the shuttle which can provide access to low orbits is fine.

But, Professor Etzioni didn't set this up as a manned/unmanned debate, he oddly set it up as a space or ocean debate. I think just about everyone here has clearly demonstrated to him that he didn't need to do that.


thosethingswesay.blogspot.com

No, the professor was correct. The reason this is a space vs ocean issue is the absurdly high cost of the space program, caused entirely by the absurdly high cost of men in space being the focus of that program. Minus that cost, the ocean vs space expenditures would be a much more evenly split, and there would be much more money available for both programs. I can see no reason for a manned mission to any planet either. None of the planets offer any return on that investment to justify the mission, and none can ever be used as a "home" for humans. Mars comes the closest, but is actually totally inhospitable to earth life, due to radiation, cold, lack of oxygen, and lack of any possibility for food production. No other planet is even close to equaling Mars for human hospitality.

Hoppy in Sacramento

An excellent post, reminding me of several things, somewhat tongue in cheek. OTOH, science fiction has had a major influence on both space and sea exploration. At one of the JPL deep space missions, the word leaked into Mission Control that some nice elderly gent had had problems with his credentials, and was waiting in the cafeteria, to see what he could see on TV.
"What's his name?"
"Heinlein". Every engineer not absolutely committed to a task got up and went to the cafeteria...and brought him back, with cheers.

Another version of your "Now there is".

To take another variant of your story, perhaps it could update Tsiolkovsky's "Earth is the cradle of mankind, but man cannot live in the cradle forever" with, "Earth is the cradle of mankind, and, before he can get out of the cradle, he can certainly throw toys around the nursery." I like to think of the Solar System as just the nursery.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Purely for earth resources, weather, communications, and other directly applicable satellites, we'll need launch capability at least to geosynchronous orbit, out of direct shuttle range. It's reasonable to probe toward the Sun, since solar phenomena have a direct influence on things here on Earth (e.g., radio communications, probably weather, and definitely satellite survivability).

It may be a slowdown of deep space rather than a shutdown. The same boosters that can lift small payloads to interplanetary trajectories can lift larger ones to near space, and the ion drives and other technologies that work on very long duration interplanetary missions have applications to such things as satellite stationkeeping

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

The amount of useful real estate and resources contained within the orbits of the major planets is exponentially larger than Earth's. It is possible that interstellar travel will remain slow and unreasonable for normal uses, but it will take centuries or millennia to come close to using up the local goodies. (Frank Tipler estimated that if using small, slow, seed ships containing embryos or software emulations of people, the amount of methane in the outer planets is sufficient to colonize the entire Milky Way.)

A possibility that has been raised is that of moving into the Oort cloud of comets, one at a time, for their useful combination of water and volatiles, and that this might become an incremental expansion to neighboring systems, which may actually overlap a bit in the extreme reaches of comet-land.

BTW, good to remember that we attempt what we imagine, and are doing pretty well at emulating SF proposals so far, from Verne's concepts to Clarke's. Serious engineering studies have been done on the elevator. It's doable right now for the Moon, with Kevlar as the cable. It should be possible soon for Mars, with new materials.

My favorite speculation that rings true, for near-future efforts, is Kim Stanley Robinson's Mars series. I especially like that he includes much messy politics in the story, both on Earth and on Mars. The complications are usually left out of these discussions, but we will see exploitation efforts without world government, in fact the competition will drive them. The first utilized space habitats will be for aging wealthy, but soon will follow a religious group seeking freedom from contamination and worldy excess.

There will also be conflicts, and it is a nice question whether preparing avoids them or exacerbates them. In this the miltary is doing its duty when it studies how to maintain dominance in space, and it is not their job to look for defusing tensions. That is the role of civilian command, which is currently in unsteady hands. 

Tom Wright writes:


In this the military is doing its duty when it studies how to maintain dominance in space, and it is not their job to look for defusing tensions.

Well, it depends on what is meant by dominance. I think people in the US forget that NASA is not the only organization putting things into space. Arianespace boasts the following as its final milestone for 2006:

Arianespace’s final Ariane 5 mission of the year orbits the WildBlue-1 and AMC-18 satellites, bringing total payloads lofted by Ariane 5 in 2006 to 10 primary satellites and one auxiliary passenger – more than all competitors combined.

I don't mean to imply the Pentagon can guarantee dominance, only that it is tasked with planning for bad things. Some are unhappy with this, including me, but I admit it seems prudent from the planner's viewpoint. Militarization of space seems unavoidable.

We'll have more competition as time goes by, both internally, from SpaceEx and Virgin Galactic, as well as external, by ESA and other national groups.

An interesting side note here--the US knew of China's planned space hit and decided that since it couldn't stop it it would say nothing. Understandable, but it also says something about the limits of power. 

One must also consider that the US didn't want to stop a Chinese space operation that, I am sure, had every available intelligence sensor pointed at it. It is that sort of information that could give the US the knowledge to try to defend against it, when an old Chinese satellite is not the target.

Remember that Hiroshima revealed the most fundamental secret of nuclear weapons: that one could be built.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" [George Santayana]

Right now the prevailing view is, it won't be. As we currently understand it there's not enough mass to stop the expansion so the most likely scenario IIRC is heat death, with possibilities of a big rip/multiple big bangs. Plus even if there is a bang, we can still try to escape using the Tipler Omega Point Theory, or even some other way. The point is we'll have the time to figure something out.

I understand and am sympathetic to the benefits of exploring the ocean, and it should definitely be used to test things in extreme conditions to help us in space--but if I had to choose one...

if I had to choose one...

We have all the time in the world to explore the Earth and an eternity to explore the Universe.

On a more serious note we probably should spend more money on scientific research. Given that there are always fiscal constraints we should redirect our space program away from costly, and essentially useless, manned missions and towards unmanned ventures. I have no idea how cost-effective our oceanographic research is. I suspect, however, that if oceanographic research got the marketing treatment NASA gives the space program it is possible that more people would decide to research our oceans rather than those on planets orbiting Gliese 581.

It is likely part of the package that more ocean survey work would lead to more seabed and fishery exploitation. Would not be surprising to find more oil fields--just what we don't need.

As to time, it is low odds but decidely nonzero that a collision-bound comet could be first sighted coming from behind the sun. In that case we would have a few weeks' time to prepare. Hyakutake gave us only a few months, although it passed a relatively safe ten million miles away. Given a long enough time window the odds rise to a certainty that we will take a hit.

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