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Tax Day Silliness

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I took part in a rousing debate last night on Larry Kudlow’s show last about fairness and tax policy.

While I fear such debates generate more heat than light, the argument really breaks down very simply: if you want to make our tax system sound unfair, you do two things. First, you talk only about income taxes, ignoring payroll and other sources, and second, you talk about the share of taxes paid by each income class.

Note that last one. You don’t talk about the share of their income that families pay in taxes, a much more intuitive measure of fairness. You talk about the share of total tax receipts paid by different groups. Then you can say stuff like, “the top 1% pays for 25% of the total tax bill.”

Now, as I’ll stress in a minute, those points have little to do with fairness.

It’s true that most households in the bottom 40% pay no federal income tax. Thanks to the various credits, deductions, and the Earned Income Tax Credit—a wage subsidy for low-wage workers—many get money back from the IRS (and while Kudlow inveighed against the EITC, conservatives should remember that it was Reagan’s favorite anti-poverty program).

But lower income families pay a much larger share of their income in payroll taxes than do richer families. Remember, payrolls are taxed at a flat rate, and there’s a salary cap of $97,500 for taxes that support Social Security. That makes for a regressive tax: low- and middle-income families pay about 9% of their income on payroll taxes compared to 2% for those in top 1%. And let’s not forget that almost every state has a regressive tax system.

But it’s the second point that really gets the crocodile tears flowing. Kudlow and his friends practically staged a tragic opera bemoaning the outsized share of federal taxes paid by rich people.

But I was not moved, and you shouldn’t be either.

The reason the well-heeled are footing the lion’s share is because a) we still have a progressive tax system (though less so, thanks to the Bush cuts), and b) they’ve been raking the stuff in, hand over fist. Profits as share of income stand at a fifty year high, and the share of pretax income flowing upstream to the top 1% is the highest it’s been since 1929 (hmmm…that didn’t exactly end well).

Given these realities, the fact that the rich account for a larger share of the IRS’s take tells you nothing about fairness. Try this thought experiment: imagine that over a given year of the economic growth, every penny of it, went to those in the highest reaches of the income scale. Of course their share of taxes paid would rise, and who would view that as unfair? They were the only ones who got ahead. Oh, and by the way, that’s exactly what happened in the most recent year for which we have such income data.

The best measure of fairness is really simple: it’s your tax liability over your income, called your effective tax rate. If effective rates fall faster for those at the top relative to the rest of the pack, you can legitimately cry foul, even if their share of total taxes paid goes up.

CBO data through 2004 show that the effective federal tax rate of the top 1% most recently peaked at 36.1% in the mid-1990s, falling to 31.1% in 2004. Other income groups’ rates fell too, but not as much as the top rate. The Bush cuts are at play here: analysis by the group Citizens for Tax Justice shows that the Bush cuts lowered the effective rate of the top 1% by three percentage points, the middle group by two, and the bottom group by less than one. That translates into tax cuts of about $50,000 for the top, $700 for the middle, and less than $100 for the bottom.

If this all sounds class warfare-ish, it’s not meant as an attack on the wealthy. But they are the ones who have benefited by far the most from the economy of the last few years. Many will presumably pay their fair share this week without squawking (some will pay a lot to other rich people to exploit loopholes for them, but that’s another story).

But don’t be misled: our federal tax system has become less progressive.


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Why is not 'class warfare' to relentlessly attack the powerless, weak and poor (FOX) but if you mention America's yawning chasm between rich and poor you're immediately compared to Lenin?

I think I know why. People who control media are rich. There.

It is incorrect to separate Social Security Trust Fund from Income Tax.  The Trust Fund is used to fund CURRENT expenditures.  This is the equivalent of an INCOME TAX reduction.  Thus, the two should be counted together (David Walker doesn't mind counting them together when sounding the alarmist horn for the future).  When you do this, the share the rich pay shrinks enormously.

Their real fear is they may have to pay a fair share when SS Trust fund bonds come due. 

Not too long ago, I had a similar discussion. I argued for the effective tax rate as the true measure of fairness, though less eloquently than Jared Bernstein does. My friend simply rejected that proposition, instead saying that it should be about a flat percentage. Since it's equal, he maintained, that is what's fair, unlike the current system.* And now I see more broadly what we were disagreeing about. He wants taxes to be numerically equal, while I think more of equalizing the burden of taxes.

What's interesting to me, then, is that Mr. Bernstein takes his definition of "fair" for granted and dismisses opposing arguments as "not about fairness." I wonder if arguments on behalf of a progressive tax system would be more effective if the desire to equalize the burden of taxes were stated explicitly.

*In the interests of full disclosure, this conversation led to a preemptive warning now issued at all social gatherings: tax policy is NOT an appropriate topic and anyone who tries it will be "gong"ed.

In old days it was possible to argue that the rich, unlike the middle class and the poor, have no return on their money paid as taxes, as they do not rely on state provided services.

Now I conjecture, due the general conservatism at the top of the income scale, that the rich wished to have the current war and in general, expansive military posture that requires massive military spending. (If they do not like it, they could contribute to Nader who also does not like it).

I also do not accept the numbers of CBO. The last time I read them, they apportioned corporate tax among the individuals who own stocks of corporations, which I find unjustified (unless you apportion unrealized capital gains too).

I'm not sure this is true of your discussion with Kudlow but remember the income of the top 1% of Americans is not 1% of all income earned. It's probably closer to 25%. (The top 5% earned 33% of the income according to this study which used 2001 numbers so I bet I'm not far off when I say the top 1% earns 25% of the income: http://www.rationalrevolution.net/articles/american_income_taxation.htm )

I remember a post on Limbaugh's site that said (and I don't remember the numbers exactly) something about the top 50% income wise pay 94% of the taxes. Even I thought that sounded unfair so I dug a little and found out the top 50% of Americans income wise earn 86% of the income. So, paying 94% of the taxes didn't see so unfair. If they earn 25% of the income why shouldn't they pay 25% of the taxes?

Good piece, one small point. I'm not sure our tax system is progressive anymore. Or, alternatively, it is progressive in the wrong way.

By which I mean that I understand that capital gains (dividends, long term capital gains, real estate, etc.) are taxed at a significantly lower rate than earned income. As such, while it's true to say that the top 1% pay a higher rate than other brackets, it would be even more true to say that the top 1% of income earners pay a higher rate, but that people who sit on their fat asses and collect interest on their inheritances pay a lower rate. (Although I guess plastic surgery and designer gyms have made the fat asses part less true).

What I've never understood is why progressives don't attack the dual taxation system for capital gains vs. income gains. The classic libertarian response that this is double taxation, as with all libertarian tax arguments, is misleading, insofar as we are all double (and triple and quadruple, etc.) taxed, as we get taxed on income, on consumption, on production, etc. etc. etc. The fact remains that someone who works for a living pays more in taxes than someone who, by virtue of accumulated wealth, does not need to work for a living and collects the bulk of her income through investments.

I have yet to hear a convincing argument that this is fair, efficient, or otherwise desirable. And I think the vast majority of Americans would agree that earned income should be taxed less than investment income, if not for all the propaganda out there.

You're half right.   But even more important than being rich, the cable and broadcast communications industry is comfortably deregulated and determined to stay that way.

Kudlow's fantasy is helped by the fiction that cutting marginal taxrates generate more revenue for the govenent than is lost. I hope Bruce Barlett's piece in the Times does away wit this nonesense for good.

There is no doubt that unless all taxes are taken into account there is no way to judge fairness. I have had made payrolls in which we withheld not income tax but did have FICA to withhold.

I do not quite understand why the percentage of the whole revenue paid by which group is not any issue of fairness. It would not be fair to have just the wealthiest to pay for all of government if that were the outcome. It is also unlikely an extremely dangerous political outcome.

A question about efficiency. If allowing high income earners a disproportionate low rate of income tax spurs investment allowing everyone a higher income would that be worth the tradeoff.

One last point. The conservatives love talking about the marginal rate of tax. What is rarely discussed is the effective rate of tax. My understanding is that it is about 19% and has been about that for years.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

"That makes for a regressive tax: low- and middle-income families pay about 9% of their income on payroll taxes compared to 2% for those in top 1%."

am i misreading the above? the "top 1%" of earners by payroll make much of their yearly income through capital gain and dividend taxes of invested income, as much if not more than any certain paycheck. knowing that, would you still claim that those high earners lose only 2% of their paychecks to taxes, given the 35% top rate?

secondly, this year we would have received the EITC, since we represent a one-paycheck household with two children not in school, (edit: but did not) because we had more than $2800 in investment income in 2006. (anyone here have >2800 in investment income in a year? good for you!). well, that is due to saving and investments made from the last 8 years till now, with reinvested dividends and dollar cost averaging. we missed out on over $5000, even though we are in the 15% bracket.

i am happy with the returne i did get, and will probably never again get the EITC, though our income qualifies, how we save. but as an investor, i identify with "the rich", at least in tax matters. with a tax cut on the dividend and capital gain rate (last five years), i would be more likely to receive some of those gains in cash, and spend it, bucking up the economy that much more. hence, the growth and gains and profits that the author alludes to above.

edit: the above poster is okay with being quadruple-taxed? i will overlook the fat asses comment.

If you make 60% of the money, you should pay 60% of the taxes.

It's really that simple.

"When I feed the poor, I am called a saint. When I ask why the poor have no food I am called a communist."

Seems like one way to make the tax burden fairer is to remove that $97,500 cap on SS contributions.

"If this all sounds class warfare-ish, it’s not meant as an attack on the wealthy."

Don't get defensive like this. The term "class-warfare" is an invention of the wealthy to use in the lowest form of political debate. You can see how successful they've been when people on the other side of the debate start using the term.

Progressive taxation does not equal "class warfare" any more than questioning the government makes you a traitor, despite what the right wing would have us believe.

My favorite Tax related meme is:

Tax cuts, during times of deficits, aren't tax cuts at all - they are merely tax deferments since someday the money borrowed will have to be paid.

You're right. According to CBO data, the top 1% pay 37% off all income taxes and 25% of all federal taxes.

That's because their share of social insurance taxes are low--they pay 4% of those taxes compared to 16% for middle income families. Their biggest tax from this perspective: the corporate tax, because CBO assigns it based on their wealth holdings. The top 20% of households pays 87% of corporate taxes (see figure b).

I don’t really have a problem with separating SS taxes from other taxes when having arguments about “fairness” since revenues from SS tax are dedicated and not used for general obligations of the government.

I think the issue of the marginal tax rate is one of incentive: At what marginal tax rate do income earners lose interest in earning more income? The effective rate is the one that should be used in arguments about “fairness”.

I was mindful of that point while writing this--'fair' is surely a normative concept, in the eye, or wallet, of the beholder.

I'm implicitly arguing that a more progressive system is a more fair system, based on the widely (though not universally) accepted notion that those with greater ability to pay should pay more.

Moreover, much of the wealth they've accumulated was accomodated by public infrastructure. They benefit more from society, so it's fair for them to give more back.

But others will surely feel differently.

the top 50% of Americans income wise earn 86% of the income. So, paying 94% of the taxes didn't see so unfair. If they earn 25% of the income why shouldn't they pay 25% of the taxes?

 

Excellent points for discussing this. Talk about how much of the total income they earn vs. equal dollar taxes. No one can spin that as 'unfair'..that also avoids the burden spin.

I’m not sure what you mean by the Trust Fund in relation to the income tax. SS payroll taxes are borrowed for general obligations, but must be repaid in the future, thus lowering future payroll tax requirements. Thus, it can easily be argued that SS taxes should be separated from other taxes when talking about the “fairness” of the funding of general revenue.

If the wealthy really think the middle class and poor have it so much better tax-wise, they could very easily join them. For some reason, in the contest between the unfairness of their higher tax rate and our lower income, they don't seem eager to trade places.

Good points. I invented a new statistic yesterday to get at this point, but I'm not sure it's useful. According to CBO, in 2004, the top 1% paid 25% of fed taxes, and held 15% of all income, for a ratio of 1.55. It's a measure of progressivity: your tax share relative to your income share. In 1979, that ratio was 1.65, 1.60 in the mid-90s, so by this measure the fed code is less progressive--their tax share has gone up less proportionately to their income share. Still not sure if it's useful.

Given our current fed tax system, which is still progressive, if the income of those at the top of scale goes up faster than everyone else's, their share of total taxes paid will rise too.

There's good evidence to suggest that is precisely what's occuring.

You're right to point out that there's got to be some balance, for good political reasons. But I would argue very strongly that balancing/equalizing forces in our system, including taxation, have taken a huge whack in recent years.

No it was not possible to argue that the rich did not rely on state provided services.

Who uses consular services overseas? Who resorts to the Federal Court system more? Who is more likely to need an assist from the Coast Guard? Or have some military helicopter get them off the ski-mountain? Who is more likely to own a private plane or have access to a corporate jet and fly in and out of taxpayer subsidized general aviation airports?

I could go on endlessly and not even get into the military argument. The notion that rich people do not rely on public services as if those navigational aids and lighthouses, as well as the roads, and the benefits from government funded drug research all somehow come out of nowhere has always been a cartoon notion akin to the one that has us spending huge money on foreign aid. Which when examined is a small fraction of government spending that generally comes with mandates the spend the money on American goods which ends up making it a backdoor government subsidy to corporations. Which goes largely back to the rich. As do the bulk of agriculture subsidies generally.

Such suggestions don't survive the first examination of the budget pie sliced by sector. The rich get plenty of government spending, the notion that they never did is just Reaganism akin to the Cadillac Welfare Queen. Long on anecdote, short on numeric analysis.

Jared almost makes it seem like the very rich are paying an almost reasonable percentage of taxes. Not so.

The very rich get very little of their income from earnings and the bulk from investments, including stock options, all of which are taxed at a much lower rate (20%). Their income, such as it is, is invested in tax shelters, tax-free bonds and the like, so that their taxable income is miniscule. Not surprisingly, their tax avoidance strategies also evade the AMT.

Then consider what has happened in the last 6 years. We went from a "surplus" (which didn't actually exist) to a huge deficit courtesy of Bush tax cuts and war. Despite all of the discussion about Federal budget deficits improving, the fact remains that the tax cut established an operating deficit (all income - all expense) of $550 bn...every year; it's amazingly consistent. But as the economy recovered from the 2001-2002 slowdown, SS revenues increased proportionally, but tax revenues from income decreased.

This is probably a reflection of the fact that most of the increase in GDP went to those who paid the least percentage of tax. The result is an increasingly regressive tax policy with a static and ruinous deficit.

Who will pay? We will, when the SS bills come due. We won't be able to afford it except by raising taxes to very high levels. That won't happen, so SS will quickly become means tested out of necessity. Do the rich care? No. They don't need or want SS. Thus the Republicans have managed to completely gut social security without having to be obvious about it. Astute, shrewd, manipulative, self-centered jerks.

Piotr says

"In old days it was possible to argue that the rich, unlike the middle class and the poor, have no return on their money paid as taxes, as they do not rely on state provided services."

While it may have been possible to make that argument, it was not a good one. The rich have always benefited much more from tax funded services than the poor, not less. Who gets more benefit from the highway system or air travel that supports commerce? Or from the police and fire departments that protect private property? Or from the military, no matter what the war? I could go on and on. Social services that aid only the poor were always a tiny share of the federal budget. The rest of the budget gives the most benefit to those who have most to lose.

I see I messed up and should have replied to the original post above, as Bruce Webb did, much more eloquently than I. Thank you Bruce! This is one of my Tax Day hot buttons.

Conservatives like to tell the rest of us that the primary reason for government to exist is to protect property.

Why then is it unfair that the people who have the most property should pay the most money to operate the government?

-Dave Adams-

Some points I'd like cleared up:

1) What ratio of services are rendered to poor vs. rich? (Piotr touched on this.)

2) Since we have had a progressive tax code for a pretty long time (varying around a range) isn't it fair to conclude most Americans think it's (close to) fair now?

3) Why is unearned income not income?

The first is one I have not seen addressed by those most capable--economists and other aficionados of government policy arcana. I find it easy to accept that since our diplomacy and military support our "state interests" (read "trade") it is almost exclusively to the benefit of shareholders when we run up a military budget larger than the rest of the world combined. Arguments that export means jobs surely are thin nowadays. (More likely it means exporting jobs.)

This infatuation with flat tax is a 1) a pipe dream, since many exceptions will be added, and 2) contrary to the wishes of voters.

Dividends are most definitely not taxed twice. When the profits are called corporate income, they are not yet dividends. That happens at the moment of distribution. They are not taxed in transit, only after becoming an individual's possession. Death tax is another lie--no one dead is taxed, nor is dying taxed. Recipients are taxed, who are supposedly alive.

Would Mr. Bernstein be willing to tackle the cost/benefit ratio of rich vs poor? Factors other than military would include efforts of the Commerce Dept, Agriculture Dept, and agencies such as weather and air traffic control, along the copyright and patent protection, the civil court system, GPS, NASA solar monitoring and satellite support (tracking space junk, etc.).

Even local police are more useful to rich than poor. The question is proportion, on which my hunch is that it is wildly disproportionate, with only basic and meager services to poor individuals compared the panoply of attention lavished on wealth.

Progressive taxation is not at root about fairness at all. It is a recognition of the fact that in any economic system those in charge of distributing returns from production will overcompensate themselves. Think that is overbroad? Well thinking worldwide, cross culture, and cross time lets just say counter-examples are not jumping to mind.

While this can be a malicious thing, that is outright corruption and seizure of state assets for personal use, it isn't always. Generally the distributers have stated reasons why their particular contribution to the productivity should be rewarded with a larger share of the output. Medieval Benedictine monks and modern Popes have perfectly logical explanations why their vows of poverty mandated them living in actual luxury. As could Chinese Mandarins explain why service to the emperor meant living in pretty nice palaces.

A progressive taxation system recognizes this fact explicitly and uses it to redistribute returns from productivity for the general good. Naturally the rich feel "robbed", they don't feel like they took any more than their fair share to begin with. But look cross time and place and you will always see that the pie slicers, whatever their actual role in production, always end up with the bigger slices of pie.

    Why is it when the needy expect the government to assume some of their personal responsibilities it is called entitlement, and when the wealthy expect the government to do the same respectively, it is not?

      Generally in the churches, it is the member who give the most that sit in the pews at the front.  Heck, my family even bought one out right.  It seems that today the wealthy are sitting right up front yet sitting on their hands while the donation plate floats by.

    They should be critical of their own behaviors when talking about personal responsibility. 

    They once used "entitlement," a misappropriated term, for promotional politics.  Now, they are manipulating "class warfare" to be a concept that invokes over simplified and negative beliefs.  If this trend of ever widening gap in wealth hoarding combined with unequal taxation continues, the term that they condemn just might give some the wrong idea with a strict observation and literal reading.  When connotation becomes denotation.

I have seen you on CNBC many times and you always seem to get the better of the argument by having facts and reasonableness on your side.

What about producing income? It is nice to talk of fairness but if fairness makes everyone poorer it is not doing anyone a great favor.

If the Laffer Curve is a joke so is the notion that goods and services will be produeced by some miracle. Where would you strike the balance?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

This discussion -- and many of the comments are bright, thoughtful, and well-stated -- is pointless.

Tax policy is always fair -- we're a democracy.

I completely agree - and I think complex analyses like Bernstein's are well-meaning but tend to obscure that simple point. The top 1% may pay 25% of all taxes - but if they possess 35% of all wealth, suddenly that doesn't seem so unreasonable.

Going into things like "effective tax rates" and the need to account for payroll taxes is a distraction.

A key thing the Kudlows of this world keep peddling is that tax cuts increase revenue to the Treasury. They don't. The evidence is overwhelming that they don't. They cut revenue. The first three years of the Bush administration saw declining tax revenues for the Treasury, and they didn't reach year-2000 levels until 2005!

It's amazing that supply-siders seem to get away with their lies, year after year after year, even in the face of actual government statistics, readily accessible on government websites, to the contrary. It would be refreshing to see reporters actually check stats once in awhile.

Every single time supply-siders have done their thing, they set records for deficits and new debt. If their voodoo economics worked according to their claims, that would never, ever happen. We'd see surpluses, not record deficits. By definition.

I think until we completely crush that myth--the myth of glorious increases in tax revenues due to tax cuts--we won't be able to bring about true tax fairness in America. Until we show the flat-earthers (supply-siders) that the world is NOT flat (tax cuts do not pay for themselves, ever), enacting truly progressive taxation in America will fail.

The Laffer curve says that if you cut taxes, you'll stimulate more economic activity (labor force participation, investment) and that will more than compensate for your revenue loss.

Pretty much every link in that chain's been disproved, not to put too fine a point on it.

So, within the margins that politics tends to foster, I'm not very concerned about getting the incentives wrong through the tax code is such a way that would affect growth.

Here's the punchline for me: changes in the tax code affect the distribution of growth, not growth itself.

Conservatives make the growth argument, and some believe it (despite lack of evidence), but for some, it's Robin Hood in reverse.

Some random points:

1. Much of the wealth these days in inherited. The Walton family is worth $80 billion. Sam earned it, they inherited it. Their efforts to get the estate tax repealed will save them about $40 billion.

2. Capital gains at death are not taxed, this allows multi-generational dynasties to escape the bulk of the tax burden.

3. Rich people get more value from public services than poor people (Social Security aside). A simple example. If I earn $100 per hour and a new public highway is built which saves me an hour per day in travel time it is worth $100 to me. For a person earning $10 the same hour is only worth $10. The same goes for the benefit of protecting my property that the police provide.

4. The EITC may be a practical way to help the poor, but what it does is allow firms to underpay employees and then shift the costs to the general public in the form of a federal expenditure. The underpaying firms are getting a free ride. A guaranteed minimum wage would shift the costs to those currently escaping them.

5. All proponents of a flat tax always propose a level which is less than the current top income tax rate. Simple logic shows that they will gain and that everyone else will lose under such a scheme. The number of conservative policy proposals that aren't motivated by self-interest can be counted on the fingers of the hand of a three-toed sloth.

 

--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape

I will not tackle the excellent question you raise because I still have this pesky day job, meaning it's a huge undertaking. The Tax Foundation (conservative group) recently did a very comprehensive analysis of this and "discovered" that wealthy people pay for all kinds of services for poor people.

My read was that they left out many of the concerns you raise.

It would be a big, though worthy challenge to undertake this.

I do not agree that the “effective tax rate” is a good indicator of fairness. The economic system we earn our livings in is set up within certain structural and regulatory parameters that heavily favor the welfare of those with assets, ie the wealthy.

One good example of this is the way recently relaxed bank regulations specifically regarding lending rules, along with low interest rates (determined by mainstream economists who support the basic business models that favor the wealthy), have led to a huge influx of cash/demand into the real estate market, leading to very generous gains in property value. While this has led to a general economic surge in many sectors (buoying the supply-side myth of rising tides floating all boats), it has benefited wealthy land-owners far more than it has lower and middle income property owners.

In addition, the real estate boom/bust functions as yet another transfer of wealth from poor to rich first, by liberating all that cash that was previously frozen in long-term real estate assets through questionable financing schemes and moving it into the retail marketplace (where guess who is the major beneficiary?) and second, by seizing real estate assets through foreclosure when the high risk loans kick into their less favorable, higher cost modes, untenable for those who are already in modest financial shape.

It would be far fairer if wealthy people were to understand their good fortune to be a function of the very system by which their financial fortunes have blossomed, and were to pay high taxes with enthusiasm, as a measure of their appreciation for, or as an investment in, the economic system that has so favored them. Perhaps as a token of their hopes that the rest of society were also well supported within the larger “society,” wealthy taxpayers could see paying into the system as a net good, while they themselves remain well off.

Said more simply, wealthy people benefit inordinately from an economic system that favors inherited wealth and capital assets over labor assets. This is not a result of laissez-faire capitalism, not the invisible hand (neither of God nor consumers), nor some mystical force particular to the good ol’ U.S. of A., but rather a set of rules and regulations implemented and held in force by the Keepers of the Golden Rule. He who has the gold makes the rules.

Wealthy people should be liable for the lion’s share of tax liability. That would be fair. And they should be thankful to the government for fostering and protecting their good fortunes. That would be generous. This would require us to abandon the tired myth of the yeoman government-hating entrepreneur finding success as a marketplace gladiator slaughtering the competition, in favor of a vision of America in which all members are part of the whole and the welfare of one is tied to the welfare of all, with a government dedicated to promoting the welfare of all.

Fat Chance.

There was a good op-ed article on supply-side economics on the NYTimes a while back, but I can't find it.

Supply-side is not voodoo economics. Cutting taxes can stimulate the economy. By providing people with more money, you can affect their spending choices, possibly resulting in increased revenue from some sources of taxes.

That doesn't change the fact that you still have the lost revenue from the tax cuts. It's conceivably possible that in the long run, the effects of cutting taxes will pay for the tax cuts. But it's far more complicated than saying that "tax cuts always increase revenue" (which is what the Republicans say) or that "tax cuts always decrease revenue" (which is what you said).

There's limits to everything: if you cut taxes too much, revenue drops dramatically and there is little, if any, additional effect on economy from the excessive cuts. However, if you increase taxes too much, people will tend to start saving more and spending less, sending the economy into a downturn. As in most things, the correct path is somewhere in the middle.

I think you are talking about "fairness" all wrong when suggesting that because the rich make more money they should necessarily pay more in taxes.

The fact is a rich person benefits far more from the government that a poor person.

Someone who has $1000 in the bank and rents a crappy apartment furnished with leftovers and a cheap TV/stereo doesn't need FDIC protection for their money or police protection for their goods.

But a rich person with 100,000 in the bank and million dollar jewelry stashes in the house does.

Rich people benefit from the government granting incredible personal liability and other protections for corporate stock owners.

Rich people benefit from roads and other infrastructure than poor people, because the rich own the companies that transport goods over those roads and rails.

Rich people benefit from the "free" trade pacts negotiated by the government far more than poor people.

Rich people benefited far more from the bailout of the Savings and Loan industry than the poor, from the bailout of the airlines than the poor, form the bailout of the auto industry than the poor.

Hell, even the pension guarantees the government has to ensure people don't lose everything when Chevy or Ford screw up their pensions is of greater benefit to large stockholders than to a guy who worked and EARNED his pension for 30 years.

The fact is that the rich would be nowhere near as rich as they are without government protections and handouts, far more than a measely annual $15,000 welfare deal with no childcare built in.

And because they benefit far more than the poor from the programs and protections offered by our governments, they should be paying far more than anyone else.

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Jared - awful title! Supposedly your facts in the content are correct. So - why diminish it with a "silly" title??

Corallein,

Actually, tax cuts never, ever pay for themselves. There is no evidence, whatsoever, that they do or ever will.

No reputable economist buys into voodoo economics. And, yes, that is what supply side should be called.

Hand-me-down myths continue to distort the picture and make it all too easy to cherry pick the data. As in, you've forgotten to mention the impact of spending as economic stimulus. Our current budget of 2.9 trillion is nearly one quarter of the economy. It's beyond absurd for people to forget that and to assume that when the government sends money back to the people in the form of tax cuts, that's the sole source of stimulus.

It's not. Tax cuts create deficits. Deficits force borrowing (Bush has borrowed more than three trillion already. Reagan borrowed more than two). Obviously and naturally, if the government pours in trillions of dollars in borrowed funds, and sends back tax cuts, the economy will be stimulated. But the tax cuts do not pay for themselves in the event. Even Bush's own economists say the usual scenario is less than 20 cents returned for every dollar sent back out in the form of tax cuts.

(Read Sebastion Mallaby on this: http://tinyurl.com/fk3vl)

It would not gain a stimulus, however, if the government ever cut spending, dollar for dollar, with those tax cuts. Because it would take back with one hand what it gave with the other.

That would cancel things out. In short, it would be a wash, with some minor play here and there.

Supply-siders have been very clever with their strategies. Notice that spending goes up at a faster rate whenever they gain office and enact supply side programs. Again, naturally, the economy is going to be stimulated when you hit it with increased spending and tax cuts; when you borrow trillions, put the tab on future generations, and inject that funny money into the economy now.

Government spending is a huge source of additional economic stimulus. It creates jobs, subsidizes industry, spins off new jobs, purchasing, companies, etc. Again, people conveniently forget that. There can not be any real scientific proof of the efficacy of tax cuts alone unless or until we control for spending, natural business cycles, and population growth.

No supply-sider has ever done so, and our government has never, ever cut spending, dollar for dollar along with tax cuts.

Class warfare? Of course there's class warfare, it has been present in every society that ever existed, its a part of evolution of civilizations, and class warfare is what brought on every revolution since the beginning of time as more and more of a society's wealth and power were accumulated in the hands of a select few. Sound familiar? But of course "class warfare" is presented to the public by conservative supply siders as some nefarious liberal plot to make life harder on most, and sadly, too many people, needing an enemy, are quick to believe.

The Kudlow/Nordquist gang know that 'demogoguery falls on fertile ground.'

The best measure of fairness is really simple: it’s your tax liability over your income, called your effective tax rate.

I think another poster alluded to this but just because you have the same income doesn't mean you have the same wealth.

For example, a million dollars generates $50,000 in interest income whereas a job that pays $50,000 means that the worker actually has $950,000 less.

Or, if you have a pension (deferred income), two incomes might look equal but the statistics cannot communicate the disparity in the future.

And, if you are good with tax sheltering, you only have to pay taxes on the tip of the iceburg, not the rest of it.

Not that I disagree, but I would suspect that the average monetary value of services that the rich receive is quite a bit smaller than the taxes they pay.

Whether overall they get a good deal, it depends on their mental outlook. It can actually be more fun to be rich in a country with a lot of poor desperate folks who would accept any job with utmost gratitude. More fun driving in a fast car when fewer people can afford to drive and thus fewer people clutter the roads. More fun hunting in a private gameland when you know that hoi polloi cannot do anything similar (as there are no public game lands).

Or you may feel better in a society with fewer people who are poor and desparate, fewer mentally sick people abandoned by social services so they live as bums, where marvels of nature (and history) are well preserved, where workforce is well educated and healthy etc.

Is it nicer to have even white teeth when the rabble has brown incomplete sets of teeth pointing any which way, or when almost everybody has reasonably well looking teeth?

To summarise, I think that the rich mean-spirited people do not get value for money when they pay taxes, but the more civic minded ones do. Kudlow is probably paid by the former to be stupid.

OK, so I didn't factor in the effects if a $1 tax cut also removed $1 in federal spending. If that were the case, then tax cuts would never add revenue, though it would shift some spending from federal to personal (though the personal spending would only be a percentage of the federal spending it replaces). But as you pointed out, that isn't the case: tax cuts and decreased federal spending don't go hand in hand (deficit spending).

However, all that doesn't prove that supply-side is a hoax; just that it's been horribly distorted and misused to justify the tax cuts.

An excerpt from Mallaby's fine article:

The Return Of Voodoo Economics Republicans Ignore Their Experts on The Cost of Tax Cuts

By Sebastian Mallaby
Monday, May 15, 2006; A17

Nobody serious believes that tax cuts pay for themselves, as I noted last week. But most senior Republicans flunk this test of seriousness.

In January, George W. Bush declared that, "by cutting the taxes on the American people, this economy is strong, and the overall tax revenues have hit at record levels." Regrettably, this endorsement of what his dad called voodoo economics was not a one-time oversight. The next month, Bush told a New Hampshire audience, "You cut taxes and the tax revenues increase."

Bush is not alone in this. Dick Cheney, allegedly a serious person, asserted in February that the "tax cuts have translated into higher federal revenues."

Bill Frist is sometimes taken seriously, not least by himself. And yet the Republican Senate leader is capable of saying: "Many people in Washington have long known a dirty little secret about tax-cut measures: When done right, they actually result in more money for the government."

Chuck Grassley chairs the Senate Finance Committee and ought to know about this stuff. But he mouths the following nonsense: "There is a mindset in both branches of government that if you reduce taxes you have a net loss, if you increase taxes you have a net gain, and history does not show that relationship."

And just last week Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) celebrated the extension of the Bush tax cuts by saying, "We've put these tax provisions in place and they've raised money."

Okay, so let's review this issue with the help of some experts. I'd like to cite Richard Kogan of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, because his work inspired this column. But to win over reasonable conservatives, I'm going to choose N. Gregory Mankiw of Harvard, a proponent of tax cuts who chaired the Council of Economic Advisers in the Bush White House. Mankiw is a top-notch economist hired by Bush and Cheney to advise them. And last year he published a paper on how far tax cuts pay for themselves, reporting enthusiastically that this self-financing effect is "surprisingly large."

How large, exactly? Mankiw reckons that over the long run (the long run being generous to his argument), cuts on capital taxes generate enough extra growth to pay for half of the lost revenue. Hello, Mr. President, that means that the other half of the lost revenue translates into bigger deficits. Mankiw also calculates that the comparable figure for cuts in taxes on wages is 17 percent. Yes, Mr. President, that means every $1 trillion in tax cuts is going to add $830 billion to the national debt.

Let's engage in what Bush might call the soft bigotry of low expectations and cut Republicans some slack. Hey, maybe they just overlooked that Mankiw paper? Or maybe, despite hiring Mankiw to head the Council of Economic Advisers, they later acquired reasons to doubt his judgment? In that case they should at least have listened to Douglas Holtz-Eakin, another conservative economist who worked in the Bush White House and who went on to run the Congressional Budget Office.

In a study published under Holtz-Eakin's direction last December, the CBO estimated the extent to which a 10 percent reduction in personal taxes might pay for itself. The conclusions confirm that the free-lunch mantra is just plain wrong. On the most optimistic assumptions it could muster, the CBO found that tax cuts would stimulate enough economic growth to replace 22 percent of lost revenue in the first five years and 32 percent in the second five. On pessimistic assumptions, the growth effects of tax cuts did nothing to offset revenue loss.

I wish that rather than demolishing my straw man, someone would address my conjecture that CBO is significantly exagerating the "effective tax rate" of the top 1%.

By the way, the case that can be made is that the rich do not rely on communal services, not that do not use them. For example, they avoid fire hazards in their estates, and thus they do not have to rely on the fire companies. (Mostly true, with a spectacular exception of California). But does it mean that the rich would be better of if massive fires were sweeping periodically through our cities? Well, the Nero-minded ones do not get value for money. Which is a feature, not a bug.

It depends on what the government is spending on. If spending on the military is cut by a billion and taxes are cut by a billion that would be a net plus for the economy since military spending does not produce any goods or services that people want.

Military spending does create jobs though.

"At what rate the marginal tax rate do income earners lose interest in earning more income"?

Any info on that?

Clearly, there were experiments of treating poor people to marginal rates exceeding 100% --- due to cuts in mean-tested benefits --- when the workforce participation was indeed suffering. But were there any studies performed at the high end of the income spectrum?

It might work, if I could understand it. I'm too old for new math.

It does explain how the tax system is becoming less progressive but that's not a "winning" argument in "these parts." (My secretary who listens to Limbaugh is the person I try to reach...at least when I'm talking to myself.)

Find a breakpoint where the numbers "favor" our argument: Americans in the top 5% earn 33% of the income and pay 40% of the taxes (or the top 2% earn 20% and pay 26% or whatever), factor in FICA and a medium state income tax, I've made up the numbers for my example but I'll bet I'm not terribly far off, use the same % for 10 years ago and 20% ago and I'm guessing even Kudlow could understand. The tax system is fair but becoming LESS so and arguments to the contrary wilt when all the facts are presented in crayon.

In the words of Warren Buffet:
“It is class warfare and my class is winning!"

I think people miss the point when they put so much emphasis on the Bush tax cuts. While bad, they didn't change the landscape in the same manner as the Reagan tax cuts.

Many people forget ... or are too young to remember ... what the tax rates were like prior to Reagan. The top rates were over 90%! Doing away with these true progressive tax rates is the primary cause of runaway executive salaries and the growing chasm between the rich and everybody else, as well as the gradual disappearance of a true middle class.

The tax burden on the wealthy and corporations is at an all time low for this country. Over the last few decades we have seen proof that a rising tide does NOT in fact raise all boats.

Average Americans are going to have to wise up and see that the Republicans are picking their pockets while keeping them stirred up over such issues as religion and abortion.

My dad always told me that every generation has to learn for itself what the republican party is all about. It seems to me too many of us are a little slow at grasping this fact.

Actually, as much as I want our 500 billion dollar defense budget decreased, defense spending creates a tremendous amount of jobs, and its ripple effect is considerable when it comes to purchasing equipment and all kinds of goods and services.

Decreasing it would have to be done carefully, and money would have to be shifted to spawn new industries to replace the old. I would favor Green industries, clean, homegrown energy, health care R and D, education spending, etc.

We spend more on defense than most of the rest of the world combined, and our Iraq spending isn't even on the books. That adds to our total Debt, but not the "official" yearly deficit.

We really need a complete overhaul of our tax and spending policies, with an eye to drastically changing our priorities. I don't think we need to increase taxes overall. Though I would increase in some places in order to lower it in others. We need to better allocate our finite resources to help those who need help, and stop helping those who don't, like Halliburton and Exxon. No more corporate welfare.

Tax fairness is one part of the equation. But the total picture needs to be looked at and acted upon. And soon.

Actually the rich in this country benefit a great deal from our government. Look at Bill Gates, or Steve Jobs, or Larry Ellison, or any other tech magnate. Who paid for the research to build a computer industry? Who funded all the boondoggles and experiments, and paid to roll out the first systems in case after case? Who subsidizes the education system to provide a trained workforce?

Go down the list of the F-400. Who paid for the roads that built the automobile and petroleum industries? Who subsidized the railroads to build a nationwide network? Who insisted on, and paid for, American produced steel and American produced ships to build a steel industry and a ship building industry? Who paid for the first telegraph line linking Baltimore and DC?

I have nothing against people who have figured out how to parlay meeting our collective needs and desires, as expressed by our government, into personal fortunes. That is one of the great things about our country. Here, a commoner can become as rich as a European aristocrat.

Just don't lie about it. You can get rich in America BECAUSE of our government and its meddling in the economy, no in spite of it.

There was some research done on the labor supply impacts of the supply-side cuts in the early Reagan years. They found no labor supply responses from men and some from married women, but as many posters have commented, and as the Reagan deficits showed, the tax cuts did not have the predicted effects re growth and investment. Neither have the Bush cuts worked out that way. Investment and job growth in particular were stronger in the Clinton years when the fed tax code was made more progressive (and of course, those years ended with a budget surplus).

Actually, I  wasn't thinking about the reasonable levels of taxation--are the rich, poor, middle paying too much or too little?--but simply 1)defending progressivity, 2) pointing out that the fed code has gotten less  progressive, and 3) trying to point out what I view as phony arguments against 1&2.

That said, your points are well taken, and are partially behind the motivation to privatize everything.  If it's every man/woman for themselves, we can cut Soc Sec. Mcare, Unemp Ins, and let you and your private acct deal with the fallout.

Well, in the 1950s and 1960s, the marginal tax rate peaked around 90%. The 1950s had a few setbacks, but overall it was a good decade for GNP growth. They called the 1960s the Go Go Years back on Wall Street, because the stock market went on a roll until Nixon came in with his antitax policies.

If you actually look at history, high marginal tax rates CAUSE economic growth. Lincoln's short lived Civil War income tax led to the boom of the 1870s which transformed the West. The Great War taxes in the late 19-teens led to the Roaring 20s. The tax cuts of 1926 led to the Great Depression. The WWII tax increases pushed the economy through the 1960s. Look at Clinton's modest tax increases. I'll even give Bush 41 some credit here. Does anyone remember the 1990s?

The simple FACT is that income tax increases, particularly progressive increases, lead to economic growth that raises ALL boats, even yachts. Despite modern conservative rhetoric, rich people are not all stupid. They will invest when their are opportunities, and rising working class and middle class incomes are the biggest.

In the 1960s, Business Week magazine used to report regional income growth as a sign of economic opportunity. Nowadays, income growth is seen as rising labor costs, a sign of economic trouble. Of course, if you want to get rich, you'll follow the rising income and ignore the rising labor costs.

I see what you mean.  I was reacting to the caterwauling of the folks I've been arguing with about this stuff. 

FYI: the CBO data in my analysis include interest, dividend, rental income, earnings, gov't transfers, and income from realized cap gains.  So it's a very complete source, but doesn't capture  everything you mention.

Debbie Weinstein and I wrote a piece (there's supposed to be a link on the word 'piece' which takes you to our doc at  TomPaine.com) on the recent budget put forth by the Congressional Progressive Caucus.  We thought it was a great piece of work,  in the spirit you're looking for.  You may find that it doesn't go far enough, but we though it was a pretty fresh approach to the big priority questions of the day.

But it's fools gold. Those jobs are not producing anything that anybody else wants. Yes, it's good for those who hold those worthless jobs, but it ia a drag on everyone else.

It has been a very long time since I have read about this issue, but the general evidence has been that defense spending has a very poor multiplier effect.  Most other industries are better.

Ever heard of the "tyranny of the majority". Democracies are not always fair. Ask some black people who grew up in the south.

I took a class in Law School called "History of Property Rights" co-taught by a law professor and an economic historian (who won a nobel prize). We had to read his book "Structure and Change in Economic History". In that book it said that the fall of the Roman Empire was related to two key things: concentration of wealth and power (5 senators owned 50% of North Africa), and the wealthy and powerful using their influence to shirk paying taxes. As a result the Empire couldn't fund armies big enough to handle roving bands of barbarians. A 500 year dark age ensued.

Then I took a class in Japanese law, and learned that in midieval Japan the same thing happened. The state lost its ability to administer sanctions to criminals. The country balkanized into fiefdomes and a 200 year dark age ensued.

I then saw on the history channel that writings on temples in ancient Egypt testitified to the same phenomina causing the fall of one of Ancient Egypts great Kingdoms.

Then I read how aristocratic rule in Byzantium after the Death of Bazil II caused the Army to be starved of funds, leading to the loss of all of Asia Minor (Anatolia) to the Migratory Turks after the Battle of Manzikurt.

Then their is the more recent history: The collapse of Hapsburg Spain, Bourbon France, Romanoff Russia. Finally the collapse of Liberal Economic System in 1929: caused, in part, by too much concentration of wealth in Cooledge/Hoover America precipitating a collapse in demand that was hidden by credit untill the bill came do; triggering the rise of Hitler, World War II, the Holocost and as Churchill suggest in his "Finest Hour" speech, nearly bringing on a new dark age.

You can quibble with anyone of these incidents, but the pattern is clear. The most epic disasters in human society are the result of the rich and power using their influence to avoid paying to perpetuate the state: The very states that allowed them to become rich in the first place.

Rome and especially Japan, were not conquored, they simply collapsed (Japan especially as an Island Kingdom there were no invaders).

To be wealthy you have to have a state that recognizes property rights. But without funding that state will go away. Our society dodged a bullet in 1929. In reality, the rest of the world bore the consequences. Perhaps thats why far-right wing conservativism flourishes only in this country. The rest of the world still has fresh memories of the consequences of this kind of insanity.

No. Intuitively it seems there would be a point where one would rather spend more time on the golf course than see more clients. It no doubt depends on how much effort one needs to make for that marginal income, whether one can pass the tax on to someone else, how much one is married to ones work, ect.

Perhaps in an excessively elite economy, we could benefit from sending some of those slackers to the golf course, giving the gungho more room to operate.

Mr. Bernstein, thanks for the article on the new progressive budget.

I like what you say about it. But I'd go even further with the alternative energy proposals. I'd double the investment and hopefully get results in half the time. The bogus "need" for war . . . or, more accurately, the desire for it, would be greatly reduced if we were energy self-sufficient. If we're green in the bargain, life for everyone improves. Actually, the green part is essential as a part of improving quality of life for all citizens. Obviously so.

Also, I think we could solve our health care problems in America by lifting the ceiling on FICA tax. Lift it entirely. Take the trillions in new revenues to lower the overall rate for everyone, and expand Medicare to cover all citizens with the massive amount of added revenues. Universal health care that does not depend upon the workplace. Let citizens opt in or out of the system, buy additional insurance coverage if they desire. Their choice. But, make it clear to insurance companies (and citizens) that the wave of the future is to opt in. They get the best deal when they do. And businesses get a break in the bargain.

With the largest group policy pool in the history of the world, our government would have tremendous bargaining power to lower prices and make health care affordable to maintain. Medicare costs could even go down overall, with an aggressive policy of negotiation for best prices.

With additional savings from reducing the defense budget over time, we could fund truly progressive "womb to tomb" kinds of educational and jobs training programs/opportunities. If possible, I'd also create a nationwide network of trade schools that promoted owner/operator businesses, arts and crafts, and artisans in general. Build upon that with a network of "masters" and apprentices, and we could start a truly viable new class of skilled artisans, capable of being their own bosses, proud of what they produce.

Build this country back up from the ground. From the ground up, for the first time in world history. From the ground up.

of course you lose their tax revenue...enter the Laffer curve.

There are economic reasons to have progressive taxation. It's the most efficient way to raise money. It automates the Keynesian fiscal policy of running up surpluses when the economy is strong and deficits when it's weak. It controls inflation without letting bankers decide what's best for the country. Republicans made the tax code less progressive and look what happened: surpluses turned into deficits, massive asset inflation rocked the housing and mortgage markets, and the economy is barely where it was when Bush took office.

But how can we know exactly where on the Laffer curve we are?

When rich folk and economists cover their mouths, that's 'cause they know where they stand on the Laugher curve...

There is little empirical evidence to show that taxation is suppressing income production.  Period.  It must pretty much confiscate income to do that.  And if it is the marginal rate that is suppressing the production, then the best solution is to lower the point at which that marginal rate bites, making it harder for those rich folk to feel comfortable without actually putting in a full day's work.

The fact is, once your income goes above $97.5k you get a marginal tax REDUCTION of 14% (your and your employer's shares of your social security tax).

All those rich folk are laughing at you when you believe the tax system is hard on THEM. 

That was the original question.

Good 4 suggested that it would be good policy to set tax rates high enough to drive high income people out of the work force and I countered that that would be evidence of the Laffer curve.

Do you ever read posts before you comment?

Tongue in cheek never works in this medium.

A quick, if not precise answer, is provided by the decision market of voters. Given current polling, we can perhaps conclude that the wisdom of this crowd pegs a fair rate as somewhat steeper than now in effect.

Quantitative analysis is dependent on many controversial assumptions, I'm sure. But it could be narrowed by only considering military costs.

Thanks for the reply. Glad to read you.

The abstract concept of Laffer curve seems obvious, but of course the salient fact is: where are we on the curve?

I think that at some point Scandinavian countries decreased taxes with the desired effects, but from a very high level to high. According to our supply siders, there should not be any economic growth in Scandinavia, yet, there is.

It is my anegdotal observation that Swedish high tech workers, come five o'clock, hop on their bicycles and pick kids from the state run preschools and go home to spend time with their families. Sweden is very much country of "Protestant work ethic", but very different than here. (They had to make sick leave rules much less generous than before to maintain that ethic, but even so.) Their fetish is good organization of the work place, with good organization you should not need to stay in office overtime, otherwise something is wrong with you.

Europeans also tend to have a totally different concept of what "family friendly" means. In USA it means (a) lower taxes so families have more to spend (b) saving children from though crimes like pornography, the sight of female breast (c) keeping homosexuals down (d) bemoaning the calamity of out of wedlock children. In many European countries, this means (a) well run preschools and schools, free of course, (b) aid to families with children, including single mothers, so hardly any children are in poweverty (c) very exotic: making sure that families have time to spend together, so overtime is frowned upon, as are long store hours, Sunday shopping etc.

From that point of view, encouraging upper and upper-middle class to work beyond 40 hours a week is fraying the social fabric.

Good ideas!

Re eliminanting the FICA cap, see this excellent, though dated, analysis by my EPI colleague Josh Bivens.

If you, especially at your income level, put a large proportion of your investment decission on the taxes involved, then you are either foolish, or you need to educate yourself more on how to make investment decisions.
By the way...'
If you take some of that money that you've paid taxes on to hire a contractor to paint your house, well congradulations! You've helped improve the economy. But, should that painter not pay income taxes because because that money has already been taxed???

Something people don't seem to get. We are not talking about a money-printing tax, a dividend tax or whatever. It is an INCOME TAX. If you have income it ought to be taxed. It gets real funny when somebody declares they are in favor of a flat tax and you ask them if they actually mean a flat "Income Tax".

dc

Perhaps this is because, contrary to to conservative doctrine, the laffer curve works the other way around-- a higher tax rate makes you want to work harder to overcome it? The higher taxed times do seem to be better times for EVERYBODY as apposed to the current conditions.
It does seem, and if you look over the past century, when Republicans controlled two out of the president, senate or house, the economy did about half as well as when Democrats controlled two of the three.

Good points. I would add...
Why is it that conservatives say they want to run government like a business, but they are completely opposed to running it at a profit? What exactly is wrong with a surplus that puts aside money to lower deficits and thus lower future taxes for everybody?

I would like a response to this article by Bruce Bartlett which talks about the share of taxes paid by the rich. Is he right? If not why not? It so, hows does that actually compare to the share of income paid?

He supposedly taxes payroll taxes into account in this article. I'm going to have a discussion with a R and he's going to use this so I'd like to know the best way to respond.

http://www.nationalreview.com/nrof_bartlett/bartlett200512070900.asp 

Barlett makes precisely the phony arguments I'm inveighing against in my post.

He argues that the fact that a larger share of taxes are paid by wealthy households represents "higher and higher burdens on the wealthy."

But he fails to remember that their income is rising faster than their tax payments, and thus their effective rates--share of income paid in taxes--are falling.

The punchline remains that in a progressive system--and there are many wonderful arguments for progressivity in the comments for this post--when growth flows to the wealthy, their share of total taxes pay rises, which is well and good.

Therefore, beware of anyone who labels 'share of taxes paid' as a measure of tax 'burden!!'

He also makes the bogus argument that tweaks in marginal rates have big effects on growth. History shows that's wrong: they effect distribution, not growth.

I have impression that the rich suffer roughly zero from taxation.

After you satisfy your initial and secondary needs, so you have enough for shelter, vehicle, college for the kids and decent vacations, you basically consume in competition with your peers. If you and "the Jones'" are all subject of tax, there is no difficulty in keeping up with "the Jones'", at least, no difficulty that can be attributed to taxes.

But I must admit that I just have no idea about hardships that people with incomes above 200k per year may experience.

Comparing marginal tax rates paid by people with the income to meet them to racist oppression in the deep South is like comparing a guy with a couple of parking tickets to a mob hitman.

-Dave Adams-

The Laffer fallacy is persistent but empty. It assumes personal endeavor is purely monetary, and also assumes that there is a baseline ennui or inertia to overcome on the part of individuals.

The first assumption is wildly wrong for the aggregate population. Most personal efforts, once basic needs are met, are for enhancing personal status. It is precisely keeping up with, or more accurately, staying ahead of the Joneses.

The second assumption is also unfounded. Let's imagine a tax rate of 99% for a multi-millionaire, who is thinking about whether to invest his cash. He can earn either zero interest or one percent of the actual yield. Is it reasonable to assume this person will not invest? Would you rather make some money or none? There is a bait-and-switch occuring, raising the idea of real work and asking if it will happen under a high tax rate. But high rates never apply to work, unless you call a meeting of the director's board work. They will typically apply to investment decisions, not hourly work.

High rates have no effect on actual work, whether common labor (obvious) or high-end innovation. The latter is not usually salary work, but speculative, such as in expectation of a patent or copyright. This is driven by personal ambition more than cost-analysis. Shall we remember that much industrial innovation and market development occured after WWII, under very high marginal rates? We built the Interstate Highways, Boeing airliners, the Saturn V, and the world's best telephone system. Under current low rates we have only movies and Microsoft in a dominant position.

Only when tax rates reach 100% is there no point in working, inventing, or investing.  

George Lakoff considers some aspects of the "common wealth", the societal system maintained by government, in his Truthout piece. Here's a good para:

Ordinary people just drive on the highways; corporations send fleets of trucks. Ordinary people may get a bank loan for their mortgage; corporations borrow money to buy whole companies. Ordinary people rarely use the courts; most of the courts are used for corporate law and contract disputes. Corporations and their investors - those who have accumulated enough money beyond basic needs so they can invest - make much more use, compound use, of the empowering infrastructure provided by everybody's tax money.

The principle is the same, however.

Let's imagine a tax rate of 99% for a multi-millionaire, who is thinking about whether to invest his cash. He can earn either zero interest or one percent of the actual yield. Is it reasonable to assume this person will not invest?
Of course the multi-millionaire decides not only whether to invest, but where to invest. He will choose a safe investment that yields a low return rather than take the risk of investing in a new investment such as starting a new business that promises much better return but with substantial risk of loosing his investment, thus depriving government their cut of successful, high return investments.
High rates have no effect on actual work, whether common labor (obvious) or high-end innovation. The latter is not usually salary work, but speculative, such as in expectation of a patent or copyright. This is driven by personal ambition more than cost-analysis.

Consider a talented baseball player with a million dollar contract. Will he and his agent go through the effort to get a ten million dollar contract under a 99% marginal tax rate? Of course not. He will continue to play ball for a million dollars, getting his reward from the joy of winning the world series and getting into the hall of fame, thus, depriving the government of its cut of the additional nine million dollars.

I'd call FICA a flat tax, due to the fact that it funds one benefit, Social Security, and that benefit is based on the taxes you pay. "Flat tax" is an accurate description for everyone earning up to $97,500. If you earn more, you pay a smaller percentage of your income in FICA taxes, but receive a correspondingly smaller benefit amount relative to your income. The Social Security benefit for someone earning $100,000 is exactly the same as that for someone earning $1,000,000.

Jared, you should mention that while FICA taxes are flat or slightly regressive, they fund a benefit that's highly progressive. For example, compare two people retiring this year at the retirement age, one with an average income of $12,000, the other with an average income of $96,000. The first will receive a monthly benefit of $714.40, and the second a monthly benefit of $2,291.40. The second person paid 8 times the FICA taxes and receives benefits only 3.2 times as large. I'd consider that a net progressive system.

Only capital goods last very long.  Money is NOT a capital good.  This may seem to be a fine point until you try to do something like put away money not for one person or another, but for the whole economy.  It doesn't work. 

When the whole economy puts away money (Social Security Trust Fund Bonds), it just moves that money to spending in some other form (Income Tax reduction).  When it tries to recover that money (Cash in SSTFBonds), it has to move the money back (raise income taxes at a future time).

What actually happened is we made a MASSIVE REGRESSIVE tax change back in the late 1980s.  Now we are staring a MASSIVE PROGRESSIVE tax change in the face.  Curiously, wealthy people aren't happy with the upcoming change.  They LIKE the fact that they have gained a much larger share of the entire economy, and they don't want to give it back.

It is too late for the Boomers, we have passed through this period of time.  The So-Called "greatest" generation stuck us with it.  The Xers need to understand what is at stake and demand the return to progressive taxation.

The EASIEST way to do that is to tag on the SAME AMOUNT as the EMPLOYEE + EMPLOYER share of Social Security Tax as a tax surcharge for all income not subject to Social Security Tax and to tag on the SAME AMOUNT as EMPLOYEE + EMPLOYER share of Medicare Tax as a tax surcharge for all income not subject to Medicare Tax.  These surcharges should not be eligible for exemptions of any sort.

THAT change would set an unbiased floor that would allow a progressive income tax to sit on top.

Only capital goods last very long. Money is NOT a capital good. This may seem to be a fine point until you try to do something like put away money not for one person or another, but for the whole economy. It doesn't work.
Sure it does:
When the whole economy puts away money (Social Security Trust Fund Bonds), it just moves that money to spending in some other form (Income Tax reduction). When it tries to recover that money (Cash in SSTFBonds), it has to move the money back (raise income taxes at a future time).
You did a nice job explaining how it works. What do you suppose happened to the money not taxed by the income tax? A good percent of it was invested in capital goods the return from which will be taxed to repay the SSTFBonds.
The EASIEST way to do that is to tag on the SAME AMOUNT as the EMPLOYEE + EMPLOYER share of Social Security Tax as a tax surcharge for all income not subject to Social Security Tax and to tag on the SAME AMOUNT as EMPLOYEE + EMPLOYER share of Medicare Tax as a tax surcharge for all income not subject to Medicare Tax. These surcharges should not be eligible for exemptions of any sort.
You are describing one of many ways of converting SS to a welfare program. Good luck selling that to SMART Democrats.

Its not the same principle at all.

There are lots of societies around these days where large minorities of people don't live as sharecroppers, don't have to pay poll taxes, don't live in fear of hooded thugs ransacking and pillaging their homes, don't live with the threat of being lynched, and aren't forced to use inferior segregated "separate but equal" public facilities.

Name one modern society that doesn't have taxes.

-Dave Adams-

Sigh.

Ellen suggested that tax policy is by definition always fair since we live in a democracy. I countered that democracies are indeed not always fair and I gave as an example treatment of blacks in democratically controlled America. Get it?

Sounds like an argument in support of high marginal rates, if limiting tax revenues is a goal.

If we can find some disagreement at the extreme margin of the Laffer cartoon it doesn't mean much. It's equally the case that at 1% tax rate, revenue would be low by any measure. But no one is arguing for either 1% or 99% rate.

But you just make the argument that high marginal rates would make no difference. The whole premise of the Laffer curve that you dismiss is that there is a optimal marginal tax rate to maximize tax revenue, rates above or below that rate result in lower revenue. Do you subscribe to that premise or not? You can’t have it both ways.

I definitely wouldn't call the SS tax flat, given that the share of income paid but those at the low end is many times that of those at the top (~9% vs 2%)

But your other point is well taken.  Soc sec distributions are progressive as you say.  Then again, so is much of the income tax--think EITC. 

So here I'm focusing more on the distributional aspects of revenue collections, not dispersions.  It's worth thinking about both, as you suggest.

Of course you are ignoring the concept of SS. The idea being that workers would contribute some of their wages to support replacement of a percent of the wages of retirees. The wage level subject to taxation was caped on the assumption that wage earners above that level do not need those wages replaced in retirement.

If you wish to convert SS to a welfare program, make your case.

The Laffer "curve" (in quotes because no data has been offered to subtantiate it) may hold at the extreme, but does not in the broad middle, which is where we are, with rates higher than 1% and lower than 99%.

Proponents of constantly lowering taxes really don't want increased revenue, I'd say. This is just smoke and mirrors.

Clearly you understand nothing about the economy.  Further discussion with you is pointless.

O.K. you accept the Laffer curve but you want to argue where the inflection point is and what the shape and slope of the curve is. That’s fair, many advocacy groups make a fine living doing so.

I agree that most people that advocate lowering tax rates do not think that the government should be about extracting the maximum amount of tax possible from the economy and advocate operating at a rate below the inflection point.

If this is your true view, then the you agree that curve is irrelevant.  It is "sand in our eyes" to take our attention from the real purpose which is just to redivy up the tax pie so that the rich pay less and the middle class pays more. 

The rich have been at this class warfare for a very long time, but when the middle class say, "Hey! Wait a minute!"  It is all communism and red herrings.

Nope.

Two data points--completely confiscatory taxes and no taxes, do not a curve make. There is no curve. If there were, it would be highly dependent on other circumstances, anyway, and likely subject to non-linear interactions with other economic policy decisions and externals such as weather.

I think there is a curve in principle but quantitatively defining it is subject of many variables which is why I said advocacy groups make a fine living arguing about it.

Many people are interested in the overall health and growth of the economy, not in extracting the maximum taxes from the economy. They will use all arguments they can against those seeking to maximize the size of government. They overplay the Laffer curve, but I don't blame them too much since their enemies are so dangerous.

Why yes I do get it.

You're trying to draw an analogy between the situation of paying taxes, which is is not inherently unfair, to racial oppression which by its very nature is inherently unfair. I can't think of any cases where racial oppression has been applied "fairly". On the other hand, while we can argue about what is fair and what isn't, I don't doubt that either one of us could posit a tax system that we think is "fair".

By inference, you're implying that tax systems are inherently unfair.

They aren't. In fact they're absolutely necessary for a civilized society.

-Dave Adams-

No, Ellen suggested that any tax imposed by a democracy would be inherently fair because it was democratically imposed. My point is that any democracy that is capable of oppressing a racial minority is certainly capable of imposing an unfair tax which is a much less egregious injustice than racial oppression. It’s not that difficult to understand.

Aw, don't go away mad just because you got your butt kicked.

Implied in your statement is one falsehood and one untested and likely false hypothesis.

The falsehood is that the government is not part of the economy.  The government produces goods and services in much the same way the private economy does.  These are goods and services the private economy refuses to produce or produces poorly.  So, suggesting that taxing takes money out of the economy is simply false.

The likely false hypothesis is that there is anyone anywhere who is trying, in the first place, to maximize the size of government.  Asking the government to provide appropriate goods and services (see previous paragraph) is not "maximizing government."  This is a red herring. 

Maximizing government would involve such things as putting a government sign over the neighborhood coffee shop or creating a government managed manpower organization where all employers had to rent employees from the government rather than hire them directly.

Now, would you stop with this propaganda? 

The falsehood is that the government is not part of the economy. The government produces goods and services in much the same way the private economy does. These are goods and services the private economy refuses to produce or produces poorly. So, suggesting that taxing takes money out of the economy is simply false.
Government must spend tax money on necessary but unproductive functions: National defense, police and fire protection, foreign relations, regulatory agencies, judicial system to start a very long list. It also does some things that we want to do but are unproductive: space exploration, redistribution of income, support for arts, high energy physics research, and on and on. Government does produce some goods and services: Highways, education for example. It is naïve to assert government spending contribute to the economy the same as private spending given the unproductive things they are required to do.
The likely false hypothesis is that there is anyone anywhere who is trying, in the first place, to maximize the size of government. Asking the government to provide appropriate goods and services (see previous paragraph) is not "maximizing government." This is a red herring. I probably chose my words poorly. There are many people who want to raise a much tax revenue as possible, then look for ways to spend it. And there are many people that think the government should take over the health insurance industry and if pressed I think they would nationalize the pharmaceutical companies, hospitals and medical technology companies. I bet I could find some folks who would nationalize the airlines and the oil companies as well.

You continue to build the case that you are ignorant.  In our economy private police (security guards) are productive, but (according to you) public police are not. 

This analysis is true only if "productive" is equivalent to Return on Equity.  People who are not substantially part of the investment community may well say it is the public police who are productive (keeping the community safe) while private police (harassing pockets of low risk misfits) are unproductive. 

As long as ROE is your definition of productivity, you are guilty of the logical fallacy of begging the question.

If people value public safety and are willing to purchase public safety through collective action, then there is no reason to assume the production of public safety is any less "productive" than the production of plastic encasement for whatever good you buy at Walmart. 

You continue to build the case that you are ignorant. In our economy private police (security guards) are productive, but (according to you) public police are not.
Police protection public of private is a mitigating expense which does not contribute to the production of goods and services and spending on it should be minimized to the extent possible. Contrast that to spending money to modernize a factory. I though this was a well understood concept.

I know that this is hard to get through your thick head.  Police protection is a service.  Most of what government does is services.

You are confusing an economically productive expense and a necessary expense. You would agree would you not that the economy would be more productive if therr were no criminals in the world and the police could go to work in the factory?

If you can't grasp that concept, I may have to give up hope for you.

Your analogy doesn't hold. Systematic racial oppression in the deep south was for the most part dismantled by a larger national majority. Are you saying that was tyranny?

With regard to tax policy, last time I checked no one was having their house torched, getting lynched, horsewhipped, branded, or the like due to tax laws. Even the most vigorous dissenters aren't treated that way. People who think tax law is unfair still get to vote ,speak out, and and to live out their their lives. At the same time they're deriving benefits from living in a society that taxes itself. It isn't "tyranny' that they have to pay higher taxes than they think should. Marginal tax rates are not a Civil Rights issue.

-Dave Adams-

funny how so much debate and discussion go into something (taxes-most notably federal income tax) and seem to simply accept the paradigm that its ok to even have it. What person voted to take money out of their own pocket on demand, and give it to a failed system run perhaps up to 3100 miles or more away?

Seems counter intuitive.

Once we account simply for state taxes and other types of federal taxes on services and goods, that's a bigger chunk than federal income tax. Seems like a double dip to me.

But what seems worse to me, is that I am a fish in the ocean of fish who are completely financially illiterate and thus easy to get large somes of money thru cohersion, threat, and manipulation. I don't remember consenting to that part of any equation.

As a family we often help people who have no home, and often at the risk of doing without ourselves if we do it too much. We just moved out of the inner part of our city, and feeding lots of homeless folks, or getting bandages with what little slush fund you have...is more useful than validating a bloated spending habit in DC.

I wish we could find a wise answer that would allow so many people like me to feel consenting about contributing to the General Welfare, instead of a sing-songy missing the point view I hear in lots of Americans, "jennifer welfare"...

the taxman cometh......why...don't remember invitin...or even knowin em

There is no reason for you to set up strawmen to argue with.

I really think you understand my point, but I will repeat it one more time:

Democratically controlled governments in the United States were capable of oppressing a minority race and tolerating that oppression. That oppression was much more unfair than any tax system could be. Therefore the same governments would certainly be capable imposing an unfair tax contrary to Ellen’s original premise.

Only a supreme court justice could interpret that statement to mean that I equate taxes with racial oppression.

Would the crimnals then be on unemployment?

No they would be in the factory producing good stuff along with the cops.

I guess "productive" means those activities that are not necessary.

Why is one necessity, food, part of productivity, and another, police (or other general-welfare service) not productive? Only because is private enterprise?

Somehow, a necessary expense has no benefits. Aren't the benefits the reason it is considered necessary? 

If productivity is limited to only profit-generating actions it should not then be considered a public good.

One can get into a philosophical argument about what is necessary and what is not. I think that efforts to produce more and better food at low prices, for example are more productive for the economy than efforts by police to prevent people from stealing each others food. That should be fairly clear. Other examples may not be so black and white.

The issue has nothing to do with whether an activity is performed by government or the private sector. My point is that we tend to use government to deliver necessary but unproductive services largely since they are economically unproductive and would not be performed well by the private sector.

You are wasting your time with this ideologue.  He has an especially naive notion of productivity.  If it can't be consumed, it isn't produced.  I assume he has never actually read anything about productivity.  His view is typical of another sort of unproductive person, those with inherited wealth.

As you feel that you are not consenting to taxation, I am surprised you would use tax supported services, such as the Internet.

“If it can't be consumed, it isn't produced. “
Actually this is a pretty good definition of productivity. Do you think building B2 bombers is a productive activity?

Re: and second, by seizing real estate assets through foreclosure when the high risk loans kick into their less favorable, higher cost modes, untenable for those who are already in modest financial shape.

No one makes money off seizing foreclosed real estate assets. At very best the assets are sold for the rwmaining principle owed (but even this is rare), and then the lender is still losing the expected intereste. Far more commonly the asset is sold for less (maybe much less) than was owed on it, so the lender has lost the difference there as well as the interest.

My crocodile is crying.

Re: In that book it said that the fall of the Roman Empire was related to two key things: concentration of wealth and power (5 senators owned 50% of North Africa), and the wealthy and powerful using their influence to shirk paying taxes.

This is probably not correct, in part because the Empire did not in fact fall (in the East, the richer part, it survived). More significantly though the late Empire, under the influence of Christianity, was a redistributive society. Whatever its other sins, the ancient Church was as fierce as Lenin in its condemnation of the rich and its support of the poor. Early Byzantine society was probably more egalitarian than our own: Justinian was the grandson of a provincial peasant and his wife Theodora started out as a burlesque dancer. Can you imagine a dirt farmer's grandson married to a former porn star being elected to the presidency today?

The people who make out are the ones who come in and scoop up all the foreclosed real estate for a fraction of it's worth.

Yes, they will get property at something like a reasonable price, not the ridiculously inflated prices real estate currently commands. However, that is unlikely to be the upper classes who have far better and easier ways to make money than by becoming landlords of far-flung houses in an uncertain (to say the least) real estate market. Even in the late real estate boom very few rich people participated: it was mostly middle class folks with some spare savings who got into the house flipping business. And I expect it will remain such. Except of course there will be no flipping with prices headed south. It will either be people looking for rental income, or people looking for an affordable place to live.
All in all the upper classes lost money in the real estate boom (Yes, no tears are called for). It was their money the banks loaned out, and which ultimately ended up in the (mostly middle class, and usually middle aged or older) pockets of those lucky enough to sell when the boom was booming. They're the ones that laughed all the way to the bank.
And as they say, it's an ill wind that blows no one any good. Who will benefit from the real estate downturn? Well, one candidate will be people looking to buy a house, and that's not a bad thing is it?

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