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Two Non-Rhetorical Questions on Globalization

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There are a few things I don't yet understand about the Faux-DeLong debate, and I am not nearly knowledgeable enough about these issues, so my questions are not rhetorical:

Jeff, you seem to be describing a process in which, in response to the political power of the Party of Davos, the U.S. government affirmatively acts to encourage outsourcing and related bad things, through trade agreements. So your first step is a moratorium on new trade agreements, which presumably would then be the leverage to force Davos Man to cut the deal on a global social contract.

My first question is, How much difference do trade agreements, especially future trade agreements, make in the grand scheme of things?

How much less outsourcing would there actually be, how much would our trade imbalance with China, for example, change if we put a moratorium on new trade agreements? Is there any agreement among economists about the relative weight of trade agreement-opened trading in the current economic picture for workers, as opposed to other factors -- trade not related to specific agreements, technological change, etc.?

James K. Galbraith's recent article in the Nation, which is generally closer to your worldview than to Brad's, seems to suggest it's not much:  "The late 1990s showed two things about trade agreements. First, they don't prevent full employment in the United States: We went smartly to a full employment economy in 1998 and stayed there for three years. Second, they don't do much good either. Compared with the productivity gains engendered by full employment in the boom, those brought on by NAFTA in the mid-1990s were trivial." (It would be interesting to get Jamie into this debate.)

If Jamie is right, or if I'm reading him right, then how much value does the moratorium really have -- either in itself, or as a bargaining chip with the Party of Davos? In other words, why wouldn't Davos Man just say, "fine, have your silly moratorium; we'd like a deal with Peru, but we don't really need it to keep doing what we do?"

Second question: How much of the global social contract you refer to is intended to be a roadblock to globalization, and how much do you intend it to be real? It seems to me that there's been a change since the time of NAFTA. In the 1990s, it was completely transparent that the argument that we need a continent-wide leveling on wages, union organizing, and environment was simply a way to block NAFTA. If you got such a deal, great, but it wasn't going to happen. The real choice was NAFTA as it was, with at best unenforceable side-deals on labor and environment, or no NAFTA.

Recently I've gotten the sense that there's a change in the way people talk about labor and environmental standards attached to trade deals, it's much more serious, and not just about killing deals. Instead of starting from the premise of looking at trade deals and saying, No Way, not unless you put in these agreements, it seems like people are starting to say, look, we absolutely need some global standards on global questions, first on climate change but then on things like the global labor market. Tnd the only structures we have that are capable of enforcement, and capable of bringing both nation-states and global captialists to the table, are things like the WTO, so let's use that leverage for good purposes. That's a different approach, a different purpose, and it would lead you to a different kind of global contract, one that would likely be very compromised to be actually achievable for China, India, etc.

I think one source of difference between you and Brad is that Brad is assuming you're the old anti-NAFTA Faux (or NAFTA-foe), and that when you talk about global governing, you're just throwing out unachievable conditions with the intent of stopping the trade-deal train. But I think there's a different place one could come from, where you basically say, look, we're living in a globalized world, deals or no deals, and in a globalized world we need some basic agreements about how we share the planet and what the baseline obligations to workers are. Those standards are not going to be first-world standards, but they will be movement up instead of down.

But I'm not sure that is where you're coming from, because if you were, your answer to Brad, when he accuses you of wanting to keep China poor and isolated, might have been, "I don't want to keep China poor, I want them to be part of this minimal global governance contract, so that the benefits of trade in China are more broadly shared." But without that answer, I'm inclined to think that "global governance" is a red herring, and you'd rather have no deals and no global contract than a realistically achievable global contract.  I don't see how that's a better path for either U.S. or Chinese workers.



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I, for one, WOULD rather have no new trade deals, until we start incorporating the political dimensions of international development directly into the trade agreements. That would make them less "trade" agreements that a more well-rounded social democratic development agreement.

I think the economists myopia in seeing an independent economic sphere of life that can be separated from the social whole- what Duncan Foley calls Adam's Fallacy is at play here in Brad's POV. Deal just with the economic issues- everything else will work itself out.

I see Jeff taking a more well-rounded view of the interplay between politics and economics- which makes him, in my view, both more realistic and more helpful in avoiding the pitfalls and seemingly unintended consequences of willy-nilly promotion of a purely (and falsely so) "economic" agenda.

In a month of Sundays that's got to be the longest, most roundabout way of charging someone with bad faith it's been my pleasure to witness.

Brad, seems to suggest it's not much: "The late 1990s showed two things about trade agreements

I generally agree with Brad Delong but here
he is being quoted by Marc whose quoting
James Galbraith and the Tinkers to Evers to Chance hand off may account for intellectual level of that remark . An error.

Clearly economic conditions within a decade can't possibly "show" much about trade agreements signed in that same decade.

flavius, that quote was directly from James Galbraith's recent piece in The Nation. Not from Brad.

http://www.thenation.com/docprint.mhtml?i=20070305&s=galbraith


I like bananas. I live in Minnesota. Therefore, I like trade.

The sons of the prophet are noble and bold,
and quite unaccustomed to fear.
But the bravest by far in the ranks of the Shah
was Abdul Abulbul Amir

In the New York Times article last Sunday about why NAFTA has not had a bigger impact on Mexico a number of points were made. The first is that Mexico did not engage in enough spending on infrastructure to ecourage the spread of businesses to the south of the country. The another point had to do with the Mexican currency crisis which the United States to the chagrin of the Right helped Mexico recover. Lastly, China took jobs away from Mexico.

Perhaps rather than focusing on trade agreements there needs to more concentration on how goods and labor get located and then transported. The Times article pointed out that the EU helps new and less wealthy members improve their infrastructure . Rather than worry about fair trade there has to be a joint spending and construction of roads, phone lines and similar items.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Food for thought: the EU helped turn Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland into rich, first-world economies.

The US has only two neighbors and one of them is still mired in poverty.

Given the importance of immigration in the current political consciousness, you'd think any talk about globalization would address one of the most critical economic issues for the US: helping Mexico become a rich country.

In that regard, NAFTA has been a dud. What's next, Brad?

This discussion has never been about trade per se Abdul. We've been eating tropical bananas in North America since long before our current trade regimes. No, it's not about whether to trade or not trade.

First, you obviously haven't been to Portugal. It is more like Poland or the Czech Republic than it is like France or Germany. That's not because of the EU. It's because of two generations of oppression.

Second, the starting point in per capita income in Mexico is much lower than in any of the EU countries.

Third, the degree of integration under the EU is way, way more complete, including a common currency and free labor flows than the agreement under NAFTA.

I'm gonna say again what I said earlier. This debate is bootless. We have neither Brad's program or Jeff's program on offer. Brad can't deliver free trade in the agricultural or labor sectors, and Jeff can't deliver effective regulation.

Brad has to settle for incomplete free trade agreements, which undermine his entire argument, because the most important sectors for Chinese subsidence farmers are agricultural and labor.

Jeff will find his regulatory regime hijacked by the same people who hijacked NAFTA and created CAFTA. He'll end up with IP restrictions imposed on foreign governments that don't even make sense in the US, and he'll get widespread circumvention of union or environmental regs that will be watered down by the political process to begin with.

This is not a realistic policy discussion, because the policies that can be implemented do not fall in any large measure in either the free trade or the fair trade policy regime.

I'm biased on the free trade side. But it's pretty easy to see that "free" trade is a slogan, not a policy--one that applies to light manufacturing to serve WalMart and doesn't apply to Cargill.

Portugal is twice as wealthy as Mexico and vastly wealthier than Poland.

Ireland is wealthier than the US (PPP 43.6. vs 43.5).

The EU has been manna from heaven for these countries.

The EU is more integrated because it chose to be so. The US has never made it a priority to lift Mexico out of poverty. NAFTA is a dud. Yes, but who drafted it?

Connect the dots instead of making excuses.

My first question is, How much difference do trade agreements, especially future trade agreements, make in the grand scheme of things?

Ask the "US industries" that receive "double compensation tariffs:

Normally, proceeds from tariffs on imported goods go to the U.S. treasury. Not this time. A law passed in 2000 allows U.S. industries that win anti-dumping suits to keep the profits from tariffs imposed on foreign competitors. It's a called "double compensation," and it has been prohibited by the World Trade Organization. [MORE]

In my eyes, "good trade policy" would simply impose a tariff and then send the collected money back to the producer who underpriced the goods because the workers, who produced the goods shoud, in my mind, benefit. To the contrary, the US producers, who made nothing, are given a windfall.

The problem with "free trade" is that the powerful rape the vulnerable and the victims have no recourse...

Jay

If I understand you correctly you are right no regime is perfect. However, I am not sure that is so suprising, what is? Is perfection to be the standard? Trade may make the world wealthier it will not solve all its problems.

The bigger problem is who is trade suppose to help? The poorest countries or American workers? From the threads here you would think that the goal is to help American workers at the expense of the workers of Mexico and China not to mention Haiti and Afghanistan.

However for economists like Joseph Stiglitz, who is not a fan of the current regime of globalization, the problem is that rich countries benefit themselves, including workers, at the expense of the poorest nations.

It would seem that this debate was missed by Brad and Jeff and most of those who answered them.

I believe you are mistaken about who is benefited by the current regime of trade. Open your computer or your car and you are likely to find parts from all over the world.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

I'm aware that computer chips are made in Southeast asia.

The point here is that the single most important contribution that could be made by freer trade to poor people around the world is opening up agricultural markets and ending OECD subsidies.

That was the showstopper at the Doha round. Until free traders can deliver that, I don't consider them bargaining seriously or in good faith.

Moreover, if there really was any policy commitment to free trade, the US could adopt unilateral free trade tomorrow. You say there can be no perfect policy regime. In practice, that's true, because organizations with large interests in trade restrictions can dictate terms.

But in principle, a regime of unilateral free trade, with adjustments to income transfer programs to minimize harm done to displaced workers, is pretty darn good. A program of free trade combined with more progressivity in the tax structure, equal treatment of income from capital as from labor, and universal health care would ameliorate much of the harm done to the losers in a free trade regime.

And impossible to implement.

Thanks. I enjoyed the Galbraith piece and
should have recognized the provenance.

Keynes abandoned his life long long advocacy of free trade both in testimony before Parliament and in a Dublin lecture on the subject . " the thing about tariffs is-they do the trick ".

And to quote him out of context "in the long run" our manual workers may well receive offsetting benefits to replace the jobs they lost to outsourcing but of course by then they'll "all be dead".

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