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Cutting to the Chase

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Nothing like a good fight over globalization to get the blood pumping. Well, not really. Even I think these are getting unfun, and I'm supposed to be writing a book about this stuff.

Let me, though, try to suggest an agreed-upon end-point for this debate between the Faux and DeLong camps, because, I think this would be a lot easier than trying to build a bridge to that end-point by forcing agreement at each step along the way.

For example, I tend to think that the US is still rich enough and influential enough that a decent, social-democraticish government here could largely ameliorate the problems globalization poses to American workers, even given the jackass rules that now govern the global economy (embodied in the WTO and Bretton Woods institutions and the quadrillion bilateral treaties that the US has signed or is negotiating).

Don't agree with me? That's fine, let's move on.

I also tend to think that the aforementioned rules of the game governing globalization are a disaster for exactly the group whose interests Brad is keen on protecting - the developing world. Brad insists, rightly in my book, that the US owes the developing world liberal access to its consumer market subject only to most transparent, non-onerous conditions.

This, of course, is exactly what is not provided in the current global trading system. Today, access to the US market is contingent upon the developing world adopting a host of policies that map awfully conveniently to what the international corporate class wants: enforcement of US-style intellectual property law, investment protections against expropriation (defined very broadly), etc….

The progressive grand bargain on this score is to replace the current conditionalities that determine who gets liberal access to the US market with 2 transparent ones that actually put the interests of workers here and abroad in much greater alignment: adoption and enforcement of the core labor standards that the ILO has identified as crucial to protecting workers' rights (note, these are process standards, not outcome standards), and, commitments to refrain from manipulating exchange rates for mercantilist gain.

The first condition, labor standards, is an old one, and, I don't think even that controversial anymore, at least in principle. There's a good body of research showing that political freedoms aid economic growth, and, a key political freedom is clearly the ability to exercise one's voice and freedom of association at work.

The second condition is, obviously, a reaction to the current policy of China in pegging the value of its currency vis-?-vis the dollar at a level that generates growing US trade deficits every year.

This policy is a problem for 3 reasons, in generally growing order of importance:

First, it is the key impediment to the unwinding of the overall US trade deficit. The value of the US dollar needs to fall to reverse the trajectory of this deficit, it has fallen against a bunch of key trading partners, and, China's peg keeps it from falling further. This trade deficit uwinding could be painful (we're going to have to move millions of workers out of construction and other interest-sensitive industries into manufacturing, and, this is no mean trick to make happen w/o a recession), and, its better done soon rather than later, when the deficit is even bigger and the transition more wrenching. Again, if this was the only problem with the Chinese peg, it would not be that huge a deal - the US economy is big enough and rich enough that, in the presence of decent and smart economic policymakers, this could be managed (the fact that we don't currently have these sure isn't China's fault).

Second, the Chinese peg hamstrings the purchasing power of the growing Chinese middle class. Defending the status quo exchange rate means that you think this group shouldn't be able to afford as many international goods as they could buy if this rate was set at a level that didn't lead to ever-growing international imbalances. This strikes me as a strange principle to fight for.

Third, maintaining the peg means that China has spent $1 trillion in recent years buying US treasury bonds, instead of investing in public goods that would lead to better, more equitable outcomes for its own citizens. The opportunity cost of this peg for the Chinese economy is huge.

Lastly, the Chinese peg severely restricts the policy space available to the non-Chinese developing world in integrating with the global economy. The monetary authorities in a range of other East Asian nations have expressed the desire to hold fewer dollar reserves, but, to keep from losing market share in the US economy, they have to make sure their own exchange rate vs the dollar doesn't stray too far from China's, so, they are essentially forced by the Chinese policy into intervening in the exchange rate market.

Brazil has begun intervening in the real/dollar market as well, as China has started sucking US market share away from essentially all other developing countries, not just those in East Asia.

Indeed, besides the institutions and policies of the Washington Consensus, the single biggest encroachment on the policy-making space of the developing world right now is the Chinese exchange rate policy.

So, where does that leave us in terms of a progressive approach to globalization? First, social democracy (or, something a lot more like it) in the US. Second, a wholesale swap of the current set of corporate-determined conditions that governs who gets access to the US market for a much cleaner set of conditions that actually align, not pit against, the interests of workers here and abroad.

If there's anything the 1980s and 1990s should have taught us in regards to what the developing world "needs", it's simply: we really don't know. No one-size-fits-all solution will do, and, given this, the obligation of political progressives is to maximize the policy-making autonomy of developing country governments, and, to provide liberal access to the US market based only on transparent conditions that rule out of bounds the most socially destructive forms of market competition.

So, my question to Brad is: what's wrong with these goals?


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This is all sounds good to me, and I like the approach of just cutting to the chase.

I almost hate to keep harping on this, but Faux's contention is that, because US elites profit from the current system, and they see themselves as "Davos citizens" instead of US patriots or whatever, why would they budge on labor standards when it would cost them? Even more importantly, why would they want the dollar to go down if their wealth is in dollars? It's like, in a world of reason we would already do reasonable things like this, but in our baroque gilded age, we have bizarre circumstances for 99% of people so 1% can be unfathomably wealthy.

I share your puzzlement with the Chinese strategy of dollar rigging. If the Juan went up, perhaps more Chinese themselves could consume Chinese products. Japan does this as well though, and they're an affluent society - the 'beggar thy neighbor' currency policy isn't new, and it springs from the desire to grow domestic industries, but it seems like China's a big boy in manufacturing now and it can afford to reap the rewards of a true 'floating' currency.

"For example, I tend to think that the US is still rich enough and influential enough that a decent, social-democraticish government here could largely ameliorate the problems globalization poses to American workers"

The problem here is that the US can be punished for "business-hostile" policies just as other nations routinely are. Free trade, including free investment flows and the creation of transnational non-democratic agencies of real institutional power, imposes political constraints as well as economic realities on nations. Prior to Bush, the economic strength of the US was such that it could defy the Davos crowd had it a mind. Now, I doubt it. This is the real heritage of the Bush deficits, and, as I said in the other thread, I think this is why Bush has gotten , and to some degree continues to get elite support despite dangerous incompetence. The Davos crowd is looking to weaken the institution of the nation-state because, to the extent that large-scale democracy is to be fouund in the world, that is where it is located.

That said, I'm sympathetic to your goals, but don't see a way around the "how do we get there" discussion.

So Brad DeLong & Jeff Faux square off, and the faux "mediator" seeking common ground is...Jeff Faux EPI employee Josh Bivens. I smell a rat. Although to be fair, contrasted with Jeff ridiculously trite "comissars in different Rolls Royces every day!!" this particular bit of Good Cop/Bad Cop was well played. I wonder if maybe it's possible we could hear what some other econ scholars not employed by EPI have to say on Trade. Barkley Rosser? Galbraith?

"social democratish"

Sorry, but I just fell off my sofa laughing.. there's nothing democratic, nothing of social justice in your "social democratish". What it would amount to is the oppression and enslavement of the majority of the American public so we could exchange one group of bastards for another.

Isn't going to happen, frankly, I would sit back with a bowl of popcorn and enjoy the show when the angry mob took down the ivory tower crowd that would attempt that.

You all still haven't learned the lesson from the failures of the attempts through Dean and Lamont.. the average people, the ones you like to write off as sheep, were streaks ahead of the lot of you, too smart to fall for the crap you wanted to put over on them.

Mary from RI doesnt understand movements, can only think in terms of electoral politics.Her "people" who were "too smart" are the ones who were convinced Sadaam was linked to 9/11 and who don't "believe" in evolution or global warming.It is Ameri-centric of us to think of this global justice movement as a US phenom, it is the activists and people involved in the struggle who are truly global and who are both demanding their voices be heard and educating at the grassroots level.

Bento

you're right - we'll never be able to stop arguing entirely about how to get to a decent place on globalization, but, sometimes it helps to step back and talk about the end-goal.

that said, i still think the US still could remain substantially in control of its own economic rules with smart management. if the Nordic countries can carve out a social-democratic state and thrive (and, they do), then surely there's no economic impediment to the US doing the same. What is lacking is the poltical path. i worry that progressives will abandon pushing too hard on the purely domestic track because they overestimate the power of globalization in hamstringing domestic policy agendas.

Dustin - i know we exceeded the EPI quota this week, but, jeez, it's not like i was identified as an independent contractor or something. i'm a little unclear as to what the nefarious "trap" was that people were going to find themselves ensared in by opening up the debate.

josh bivens

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