Missing the Point #2
Brad Delong asks:
Is there a way to interpret Jeff other than as a call to keep China a society of poor subsistence rice farmers as long as possible--keep them poor, barefoot, uneducated, and by no means allow them to work at any of the high-value manufacturing occupations we want to keep in the United States?
Brad missed the point. There are rich people in poor countries and poor people in rich countries. China is not just a society of poor, barefoot, uneducated peasants. At the top, China is a place of immense wealth. Let me ask Brad: Why is it that it is the responsibility of $40,000 year American working families to sacrifice their future in order to raise up the living standards of poor Chinese, when commissars turned capitalists ride around Shanghai in a different Rolls every day?
China is potentially the world greatest internal market by far. Its rulers are sitting on a trillion dollars in foreign reserves. Why can’t they invest it at home instead of lending it to American consumers who get deeper and deeper in debt? Part of the answer is that, as with Mexico, export-led growth based on cheap labor, and kept cheap by an authoritarian government, is easier and more profitable for the China division of the Party of Davos. And more profitable for their American corporate partners.
Brad’s question is a claim for moral superiority. But if the purpose of the policies promoted by Brad and his fellow water-carriers is to force the American working class to transfer income and opportunities to the world’s poor --while providing the boys and girls at Goldman-Sachs with more Christmas candy bonuses then they can eat in a millennium -- I’d like to know the moral equation that justifies having lied to American voters and workers all these years.















I'll state it right out: If it comes to a choice between the Chinese being dirt poor and uneducated or Americans being dirt poor and uneducated then I am all for keeping the Chinese peasants grubbing the dirt in favor of Americans. I am an American, I have no problem putting American interests first but there is no actual choice like that on the table.
Besides, from what I can see, you're saying the elite conspires to exploit people in both countries (and I'm not going to use the term "Party of Davos" ever, sorry) to increase their own power and wealth and frame the discussion in a way that helps them.
February 27, 2007 9:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Brad really walked into that one.
Good one, Jeff. Very good, indeed.
February 27, 2007 9:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
The practice of this kind of debt mercantilism - we export debt and they send us finished goods - what the hell's so Adam Smith-ish about that? Is that the math problem David Hume was trying to solve with comparative advantage?
It's easy to rationalize whatever the wealthy do - hey there's money in it. Calling them on their b.s. doesn't pay. Economists mostly seem to dish out rhetorical candy to to the rich and bitter pills to the poor.
February 27, 2007 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am beginning to understand the situation in the world a lot better. (I'm a slow learner.) In order to make a maximum amount of money the very wealthy try very hard to keep labor rates as low as possible, no matter what country we are talking about. There is no concern whatever about the living standards of the people who do the hard work that results in massive wealth for the wealthy.
I used to be sure this wasn't true in America. I was naive. As much as I prefer the Democratic Party to the Republican Party, I don't see a lot of evidence that the two parties differ in this respect. And, the most disturbing part to me is that Joe Average self-identifies with the very wealthy and will fight to the bitter end any effort to correct this situation, even as his standard of living drops every year.
Hoppy in Sacramento
February 27, 2007 10:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
This isn't a necessary condition but an artificial one that a lot of money and effort has gone into maintaining.
February 27, 2007 10:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is nothing but a rhetorical sleight of hand that is profoundly dishonest. There is no one, anywhere, who would ever claim that it is the "responsibility" of working families to sacrifice for the Chinese.
And whether or not there are corrupt commissars-turned-capitalists riding around in Rolls-Royces, the fact is that the increased wealth of the Chinese masses is, from the standpoint of the American economy, a good thing.
The focus for people who care about those who lose out because of trade, offshore outsourcing or technology (and a combination of the three, which is becoming more common) is to give them the tools to be flexible in their employment, most prominently by enacting health care reform and education reform. Clamping down on trade is a loser economically and a loser politically.
February 27, 2007 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
Excellent response. No matter how many times (un)free trade is shown to be a loser for working people world wide the water carriers of globalization will continue to insist that access cheaper goods are more important than jobs and economic opportunity.
February 27, 2007 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would further assert that "Joe Average" doesn't think that all. Do newspaper columnists - and more importantly, the people who pay them - think that? Sure.
Given that the vox populi has been all but divorced completely from 'politics' you find overwhelming support in polls for things like universal health care or increased fuel economy, but thanks to the insurance and auto lobbies these issues are 'non starters.'
February 27, 2007 11:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK, so 'show' this evidence free trade helps workers. I'd love to be shown it one time.
I'm familiar with the classical trade theory - how about some empirical evidence?
February 27, 2007 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
The 'masses' have wealth in China? How about all the people who were kicked off their land and lost their pensions with the embrace of Capitalism?
If they're so wealthy, why can't workers afford to buy the goods they are making? If Chinese workers are wealthy, why does China sell all it's products here, basically in exchange for our debt?
February 27, 2007 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
to elaborate on whatdoIknow's point, this is why the GOP sells the politics of gay-bashing, race-baiting and 'family values' pandering to Joe Average: because Joe Average would never, ever vote GOP again if he realized that he lost his good-paying job not due to affirmative action, but because the Republicans rewarded his company's owner for sending his job to China, India or Mexico.
February 27, 2007 11:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Precisely Brad. The issue here seems to be that DeLong said one thing: trade is good; and then was attacked for having said another: "that the consequences of trade cannot be mitigated" Another issue is that progressive economists always look and sound hypocritical: they preach and teach free market nonsense on the one hand and then print interventionist articles on the other! [Hence my earlier rant about neo-classical economics]. Still Faux has a point:
Getting the American workforce to be competitive is a political as well as an economic problem. Unfettered free markets won't do that. We need sound government intervention. We've been sold the free market bill of goods one too many times. The consequences all seem to flow to a few [especially capitalists], and the costs to someone else. And when those who are hurt raise their voices they are told, all too frequently, by the free martket apologists, that "that's the way it is". Or, alternatively, we are told that there's no money to help. Well let's find the moeny by taxing those who benefit.
At the same time, I don't agree with Faux that trade is bad per se. He presents an unvarnished populism and seems to be advocating a radical trade protectionist program that would lower living standards for majority of Americans so as to help the much smaller number who are clearly hurt by trade. Why should I pay more for all those things? That's money out of my pocket and is a 'back door' way to tax me.
I would much prefer a 'front door tax' that is specifically designed to provide aid to workers whose jobs or wages are hurt by globalization: a tax on foreign earnings of mutinational companies and their shareholders is a start.
And I agree that outsourcing would not be anywhere as attractive to American companies if they did not have to pay for health care. It's a cost burden foreign companies don't have to worry about. Universal health care is not just cheaper as a whole, but it makes for good trade policy as well.
'All Life is Problem Solving'
February 27, 2007 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is a rhetorical sleight of hand far, far, far more honest than that of Delong's (is that you, Bradthedad?).
Ah, echoes of the old 'retraining' canard! Yes, you can just retrain! Even if you are 55 years old and were counting on retiring in a few years, you can just spend a couple years retraining so that you can earn 1/2 of what you did before! And there's never, ever any discrimination in the job market against 55 year old people starting a new career!
But seriously... it would be nice in theory if all that went hand-in-hand. Unfortunately, we have enacted the offshore outsourcing years ago while we have hardly begun on either health care reform and education reform. And personally I don't really care for the notion that people should be expected to just move whenever the job market demands it. People and families are not interchangeable commodities which you can just shuffle around as often as you like.
Rhetorical sleights-of-hand abound on this topic, it seems. Yes, "clamping down on trade" as you put it, probably results in a measure of economic inefficiency. Economics should work for people, not the other way around. Politically a loser? That depends on whose ox is being gored, doesn't it? In 2004, I saw both parties trying to get Michigan's electoral votes by supporting steel tariffs.
How about, "free trade with a human face"???
February 27, 2007 11:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Even Ezra Klein says Faux's response is a loser.
February 27, 2007 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Also is there any chance we can get sane commenters who specialize in this issue, like Brad Setser or Nouriel Roubini and ditch reactionary "Teh Chinese arr take our jobs!!1!" nationalist hacks like Jeff Faux?
February 27, 2007 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Compared to where they were even 10 or 15 years ago, the "masses" in China are immensely wealthier. Compared to where things were 40 years ago, you might as well be on a different planet. That is not to say that they are wealthy on an absolute scale, only very much wealthier relative to before. By any scale imaginable.
If they're so wealthy, why can't workers afford to buy the goods they are making?
In many cases they can. Consumer spending in China has skyrocketed over the last few decades, although admittedly from a very low base.
If Chinese workers are wealthy, why does China sell all it's products here, basically in exchange for our debt?
As I said, China does not sell ALL its products here. And China does not decide where to sell its products. Most of the products sold in the US but made in China are made and marketed by American companies that outsource manufacturing to China. The issue of American debt is a separate issue, and is primarily a political issue, not an economic one. The real question is why there is such a huge trade surplus. There are two primary reasons why China has such a huge trade surplus with the US:
A policy of deliberately undervaluing the yuan against the dollar, making goods produced in China cheaper.
The high quality of Chinese manufacturing relative to costs. There are cheaper places for western companies to manufacture, but few places that can maintain Chinese levels of productivity and quality.
The point here is that defending trade is not some pointy-headed argument that doesn't take account of the very real issues confronting American workers. The challenges to American workers come much more from technology than they do trade in any case. Trade has real benefits to Americans, from lower prices to increased exports in some areas. But there are costs too. We must acknowledge those costs and not ignore them. But at the same time we need to recognize that there isn't a whole lot that can be done about them without seriously sacrificing a huge amount. The "cure" of regulating or restricting trade is worse than the "disease" of people losing their jobs from trade.
February 27, 2007 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are plenty of 55-year-olds who start new careers. My father was one of them. It's nothing to be ashamed of nor is it necessarily something to fear.
And a serious government effort at retraining has never been tried, so calling it a "canard" is premature at best. In any case, my previous response had nothing to do with retraining. It had to do with making changing jobs easier on people. Talk to most people about their fears about job switching and health care concerns are usually top of the list. That it very much a solvable problem. What is not a solvable problem is the unfortunate loss of jobs due to technology (by far the bigger factor) or trade. It's simply a fact of life that in today's economy, people lose jobs through no fault of their own. No one outside of government or academia is guaranteed a job. And rightly so.
February 27, 2007 12:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Very sane and reasonable response, but I still see all these benefits of free trade as largley 'faith based.'
This debate should not get wrapped up in arguments about resentment or class war. I'm as left as anybody out there and yet why doI agree with this guy?
QUOTE:
"Not only are we shipping factories, technology, equipment and jobs to China, we are exporting our future to China. Nor should this shock any student of history. For contrary to free-trade mythology, every nation that has risen to pre-eminence and power -- Britain before 1860, the United States from 1860-1914, Germany from 1870-1914, postwar Japan, China today -- has pursued a mercantilist or protectionist trade policy. Economic nationalism is the policy of rising powers, free trade the policy of declining powers. For great powers have ever regarded trade as an arena of struggle in the clash of nations. It is no accident all four presidents who made it to Mount Rushmore were protectionists. "Thank God I am not a free trader," wrote Theodore Roosevelt. "Pernicious indulgence in the doctrine of free trade seems inevitably to produce fatty degeneration of the moral fibre." Think Teddy might have had a point, Mr. Ikenson? Probably not. For libertarianism is an ideology, and evidence that contradicts the dogma of an ideology is to be disregarded or denied. For the dogma cannot be wrong."
Pat Buchanan
February 27, 2007 1:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, so Faux has actually been at the table where they made these trade negotiations yet, because he's 'nationalist' he's a "hack" in your eyes with no authority to speak on the subject.
Yet your snarky post is dripping with condenscension and a totally un-earned sense of superiority to workers. I guess you can't hide your contempt for people like me, or even fellow experts who are candid about their uber-class's sense of superiority.
February 27, 2007 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Superiority to workers? I AM a worker! and as a worker I don't consider myself uniquely more entitled to a certain job moreso than a non english speaking person in a foreign country just because I'm white & western & special. I take pride in my work but if there's some equally talented guy in bangladesh who can do the same thing & more productively than god bless him.
February 27, 2007 1:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
My son's room-mate was from Delhi, India. He said that right outside his house there were many employed people (not drug addicts or mentally ill people) who were homeless and shivering in the rain during monsoon season.
Perhaps you would like to exchange places with them? It may be your fate if the free-traders have their way.
February 27, 2007 2:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dustin
I responded to your question in the Brad Delong thread, so I'll just say:
If you are fine with losing your job, I guess there's not much I can say. Only that we're seeing that really nothing can't be outsourced so even white collar managers or engineers are at risk.
I don't hate Indians or Chinese. I like them so much I want them to have tangible, meaningful labor rights. I want ALL states to respect workers' right to organize - that's not chauvinism, it's even handedness.
February 27, 2007 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
from the bbc on the boom in Bengalore:
... many of the thousands of construction workers who have to build the new apartments and offices live in squalor in makeshift roadside tents that sit uneasily among the city's glamour.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6288325.stm
February 27, 2007 2:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy cow! We better stop outsourcing those construction jobs to the Indians pronto.
February 27, 2007 3:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem that all free-traders have when arguing their case is that the benefits of free trade are subtle, hidden, and dispersed among the population at large whereas its costs are obvious, glaring and concentrated. No one can argue the benefits of trade with someone who has just lost their job to it. It's much easier to argue about the degree to which prices and variety are greater because of trade. This is the hill that all people who believe in free trade have to climb.
But climb it we must. Because the damage that would be wrought by following the policy prescriptions of demagogues like Pat Buchanan would be incalculable.
The second obvious point to make is that what we have now does not come close to what any economist would call "free trade". What we have now is free trade in some areas and unfree trade in other areas (think about our insane sugar policy if you don't believe me). Compared to China or even Japan, we are much freer. Compared with Ireland or New Zealand, we are much less free. So what we are talking about is degrees of freedom.
But all the talk about trade is more of a distraction than anything else. Trade makes an easy target for populist bigoted demagogues, but it pales in comparison to technology when it comes to what actually causes disruption in the economy and people to lose their jobs.
Finally, there is one element of free trade that has a demonstrable negative effect on the lives of working class Americans and is easily remedied. That is illegal immigration. Yet this is precisely the area that progressives, who claim to have the interests of working class people at heart, are ardent free traders, arguing that restrictions or crackdowns on illegal immigration are counterproductive and immoral. Indeed they make all the same arguments talking about the benefits of free trade, including how disruptive it would be if we didn't have all that cheap labor. Somehow it is acceptable for people to lose their jobs to Mexicans in the US who are willing to work for low wages, but not acceptable for people to lose their jobs to Mexicans in Mexico willing to work for low wages. At least Pat Buchanan is consistent in this regard.
February 27, 2007 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Our corporations are not building buildings in Bengalore?
You self-identified as a "worker" -- what kind of worker are you?
February 27, 2007 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not fine with losing employment. Being unemployed is not fun. It can be very destablilizing and you will never see me arguing against any measure increasing the generosity of severance & unemployment benefits, strengthening wage insurance & providing retraining. But I'm not going to support any measure that insulates me from having to compete for my job with other equally if not more talented people whether that be protective tariffs or restricting immigration.
February 27, 2007 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
But we are guaranteed the right to a government that puts our interests as Americans above anyone else. That's what the Constitution is all about. We formed a social contract to protect ourselves. The founders had no utopian illusions about how "free" trade was apt to be without a government passionate about protecting the rights and well-being of its people.
February 27, 2007 4:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
No they are! And they're using Indians to do it. It used to be good red blooded Americans would be hired for those construction jobs in India, now it seems the Corporations, in their unyielding zeal to amass as much profit as possible, have resorted to hiring the local population.
I'm a Computer Programmer/Analyst. I work for Mattel.
February 27, 2007 4:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeff Faux: In spite your name, you're the real deal. Thank you very much for this piece. You dare to ask the question I have often asked, and I've never heard it from anyone else, even the leftmost of economists, let alone the deLongs of the world:
Yes, indeed. The politics of the past fifty years can legitimately viewed as a "bait and switch" operation. The system that won the Cold War was the mixed economy of the New Deal - the one that gave even Nikita Khrushchev pause. The new book "Khrushchev's Cold War" by Fursenko & Naftali cites newly released Soviet-era archives
If Wall Street regarded this deal as one forced upon them, to be rescinded at the first opportunity, then they indeed are guilty of lying to the American voters and workers all these years. Egalitarianism was part of the package they sold -- and it still matters!
One minor quibble which I expect you'd probably agree with since you talk about the "boys and girls at Goldman-Sachs" above: I don't care nearly so much about the Chinese elites as I do about the American elites who are enriching themselves at the expense of ordinary people.
February 27, 2007 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I understand that our companies overseas typically subcontract and that the result is the actual work is often done by virtual slave laborers.
This has been the case in Iraq.
February 27, 2007 5:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're damn fucking right I'm a nationalist!
We used to call it patriotism. Tattoo that on your forehead, motherfucker.
February 27, 2007 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is why the immigration reform package regardless whether the amendments were republican or democratics were a crock of sh*t. We have to get tough with employer immigration enforcement, because as US wages go down, the social and health care programs will become further and further beyond our reach.
February 27, 2007 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink