Clinton, Obama, AND IRAN
My praise of Obama's unequivocal endorsement of talks with Iran and Syria has stirred up a little tempest in the blogosphere.
At TAPPED, I'm accused of Clinton bashing for implying that her position is not unequivocal but that Obama's is.
Well, what can I do. Read the statements. They are on my previous post. Clinton basically posits negotiations with Iran as a last resort before going to war. Obama says negotiate, period. And he includes Syria.
The difference is obvious.
Look, there is not a single one of our contenders who I could not enthusiastically support. And I will.
But this early in the game, we have every right (obligation) to expect candidates to speak clearly and unambiguously about issues that matter to us. (like life and death).
On Iran. Obama's statement was perfect. On Israel-Palestine, it erred (as Clinton does) in only pointing to the need for change by one side: the Palestinians.
It is our job to call him on that just as we call Hillary on Iran (and on I-P).
Neither candidates is Paul Mc Cartney in 1964 where we just go into a stadium and scream and faint in adoration.
This is politics. Even though it is almost Valentines Day, our job is not to fall in love and ignore our lover's faults but to point them out.
That is what I did with HRC. Obama's statement on Iran however had no faults. Dems the facts.












The difference is much starker if you put the positions in context. Clinton has embraced the position of the "muscular" foreign policy and has been in sync with the Bush outlook...that by destabilizing the Middle East, removing Saddam, regardless of WMD's, the US was improvingthe security picture for the US and for that region. Clinton has never disputed those very dangerous underpinnings ofthe disaster. In fact she refuses to indicate that there is anything WRONG or dangerous with the Bush worldview. Obama, Edwards, Webb, Clark, Kucinich, Richardson and Vilsack have not only criticized the incompetency of the Bush administration they have taken issue to various degrees with this foreign policy outlook that underlies the mess and tragedy.
The consequences then of their similar sounding comments for Iran mean different things in context. At this time when it seriously looks like the Bush administration may provoke and instigate a new conflict, Clinton plays up to AIPAC and reinforces Bush war making noises. This is Clinton redux. Will we hear four years from now, my position was right (apparently like Bush it is always right) just Bush did not give me the accurate intelligence and valid information? No. The information is apparent and Clinton cannot lie her way out of it: the critical information is the history of deception and the lying of the Bush administration, and its longstanding oft-indicated desire to engage Iran militarily. Clinton's tepid response...no indicated opposition, is really a non-response, and it continues her enabling role for the worst excesses of the most dangerous government we have ever had. It rules her out as a candidate and in fact marks her as a danger to our security and well-being.
February 13, 2007 5:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Like I said, anyone who says that launching a war is an option, whether option A or B or C, is a warmongering criminal.
Under international law, the use of force to resolve disputes is ILLEGAL. It is not option B to be followed, if you can't get your way under option A.
Anyone who says that launching a war is an option on the table automatically loses my vote.
February 13, 2007 5:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
War, when it comes to us, should arrive by necessity, not by choice.
Keeping war as an option is, as you say, unacceptable.
Anyone who finds threat of violence an appropriate negotiating tool is one I do not want as my leader.
February 13, 2007 5:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Could somebody please fill me in. I am sure this sounds like a naive question on this site which appears to be teeming with foreign policy wonks, but how does going to war theoretically advance any American or Israeli position? Try as I might, I can't figure out how war with Iran advances any American interest. For Israel dropping bombs on Iran would seem to be suicidal.
Ron Byers
February 13, 2007 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
If use of force to resolve disputes is illegal, even to defend your self, then call a cop.
February 13, 2007 6:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ:
I agree that it is absolutely necessary to probe the various Democratic candidates in the lead-up to the primaries. That's not to say that the process isn't excruciating for someone like me who knows with blue-dog-like certainty that he's going to vote Democratic in the generals.
This will be the 11th presidential campaign that I've paid close attention to and I'm sure there are many posters out there who have observed even more. For what it is worth, I do believe that the emotional pitch fluctuates in a typical presidential campaign, even when the campaign now exceeds two years. Just a prediction, but I think come November of 2008 most Dems will come home with gusto regardless of who is on the ticket. Just human nature; once the vicious attacks start coming from the other side, and once the alternatives become apparent, I think we'll come together again.
February 13, 2007 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ Rosenberg, you are completely ignoring this line (and I don't know how many times I need to point this out and repeat it on this site):
How is that "negotiate, period"? Does "period" mean "and then we have some other options if that doesn't work?". Because that's not what "period" means to me.
Says the guy that used four exclamation points to describe Obama's interview on 60 Minutes?
I'm sorry, but 1 exclamation point is emphasis. 2 exclamation points is excitement. 3 exclamation points is adoration. And 4 exclamation points is infatuation.
You are ignoring the facts because you're in love with the candidate. To spin it the other way around is pure Rovian style rhetoric.
February 13, 2007 7:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton is leaving herself the most aggressive of all foreign policy positions compared to the Democratic field. If they were advocating ground war with Iran, she would be advocating nuclear war. Does she mean it? Of course not, she is a Clinton don't ya know..
She is the only one with the funds and momentum to be looking past the Primaries to the general. She is preparing herself for 4 things. One that she will go to the general. Two if a tragic foreign policy event occurs that requires vigorous American action, she will be the only Democrat standing. Three, she can always change in the next two years and say things have gotten worse and she is more dovish now. Four, She plans to aggressively fight for Red states rather than mock them as hicks.
Does she believe what she says, hell no. Shes doing it all for political positioning and what sounds good for now. Will that win? Its highly likely. The Clinton political machine is still the most efficient mechanisim on the left for actually winning. Remember Kerry's August 2004 implosion and anti bounce.
The more important question is, do we really want a foreign policy based on polling and focus groups and what looks good on the nightly news, or whats best for the country?
So people are gleeful about Obama's idea of talks with Iran and Syria? Maybe they want to help us out. Maybe they are motivated by love and peace. Maybe we should act gleeful to just be in their presence for a few moments. Maybe they will slit our throats and dump us face down in the sand.
February 13, 2007 7:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ouch!
February 13, 2007 7:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
You know, Jay, you are never, ever, going to understand what it is people are telling you. No one is suggesting that Senator Clinton is a rock star and we all have to swoon when we see her. What people are trying so hard to get you to see is that by misstating, misquoting, exaggerating and selectively quoting Clinton, you are doing exactly what Broder, Cohen et.al, are doing - holding Sen. Clinton to a different standard than the other candidates.
Now here is what was said on 60 Minutes:
Kroft: "Would you advocate the use of military force to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?"
Obama: "I think we should keep all options on the table..."
Obama then continues to outline his policy towards Iran to use negotiation as a first tool.
Now how is that any different from what Clinton said - keep all options on the table and negotiate first? Both positions are essentially the same regarding Iran, Iraq and Israel.
Whenever you get caught doing this, your answer is exactly the same - anyone who defends Clinton is a starstruck, swooning teenager and you're only being a fair, reasonable thinker. Does it occur to you that if everyone is pointing out to you that you are distorting the record and making it more difficult for any democratic candidate to get elected it might be a good idea to consider what they are saying and try and refrain from distorting the record, perhaps be a tad more objective in your reporting?
For the LOVE OF GOD, please think before you post, do a little research first - just because you think something, it doesn't make it true. You have a public platform here, please be responsible, PLEASE.
February 13, 2007 7:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know who Jay is because that's not my name. Anyway, those who refuse to honestly compare the two statements are not going to be persuaded by the likes of me.
But, let's try again.
Hillary at AIPAC (from her website. Not a word changed or omitted.
"Israel is confronting many of the toughest challenges in her history, in a neighborhood that is less secure than ever. At this moment of peril, what is vital is that we stand by our friend and our ally and we stand by our own values. Israel is a beacon of what's right in a neighborhood overshadowed by the wrongs of radicalism, extremism, despotism and terrorism. We need only look to one of Israel's greatest threats: namely, Iran. Make no mistake, Iran poses a threat not only to Israel, but to the entire Middle East and beyond, including the U.S. I don't need to remind this group that about a month ago the Iranian government hosted a conference in Tehran whose sole purpose was to deny the Holocaust.
"Now that conference was beyond the pale of international discourse and acceptable behavior and we must not treat this situation as business as usual. The gathering was hosted by the leader of the member of a United Nations state and by a leader that has raised serious international concerns over his country's nuclear ambitions and who has called for Israel to be wiped off the map.
"To deny the Holocaust places Iran's leadership in company with the most despicable bigots and historical revisionists. It is an insult, not only to a memory of the millions of Jews who suffered and died in the Shoah but also to the troops of the U.S. and its allies, who in the fight to liberate Europe from Nazism bore witness to the reality of the Holocaust.
"Such comments add greater urgency to the necessity to doing everything we can to deny nuclear weapons to Iran. The regime's pro-terrorist, anti-American, anti-Israeli rhetoric only underscores the urgency of our response to the threat we face.
"U.S. policy must be clear and unequivocal. We cannot, we should not, we must not, permit Iran to build or acquire nuclear weapons. And in dealing with this threat as I have said for a very long time, no option can be taken off the table.
"But Iran is a threat not only because of the hateful rhetoric spewed by its president, not only because of its nuclear ambitions, but because it uses its influence and its revenues in the region to support terrorist elements that are attacking innocent Israelis; and now we believe attacking American soldiers. Hezbollah's attacks on Israel this summer using Iranian weapons clearly demonstrate Iran's malevolent influence even beyond its borders.
THEN: On negotiations:
" There are no easy answers to the complex situation we face today. I have advocated engagement with our enemies and Israel's enemies because I want to understand better what we can do to defeat those who are aiming their hatred, their extremism, their weapons at us. And I believe we can gain valuable knowledge and leverage from being part of a process again that enables us to get a better idea of how to take on and defeat our adversaries.
"This is a worthy debate to have in our country today. There are many, including our President who rejects any kind of process of any sort of engagement with countries like Syria and Iran. I do believe that that is certainly a good faith position to take, but I am not sure it is the smartest strategy that will take us to the goals that we share."
NOW OBAMA: His entire statement on 60 Minutes. Would he talk to Iran or Syria?
"OBAMA: Yes. I think that the notion that this administration has -- that not talking to our enemies is effective punishment -- is wrong. It flies in the face of our experiences during the Cold War. Ronald Reagan understood that it may be an evil empire, but it's worthwhile for us to periodically meet to see are there areas of common interest. And most importantly, those conversations allow the possibility that our ideas and our values gain greater exposure in these countries. The fact of the matter is that Iran currently is governed by an oppressive regime, one that I think is a threat to the region and to our allies, but there are a lot of people in Iran who potentially would like to be part of this broader community of nations. For us not to be in a conversation with them doesn't make sense. Now I don't think that that conversation should be conditioned on our accepting their support of terrorism or their building nuclear capacity and potentially sparking an arms race in the Middle East, any more than our conversations with the Kremlin presumed that we approved of their aggression around the world. You know, we can have a robust strategy of blocking and containing aggressive actions by hostile or rogue states, but still open up the possibility that over time those relationships may evolve and they may change. And there may be opportunities for us to resolve some of our differences, not all of them, but some of them in a constructive way.
KROFT: Would you advocate the use of military force to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons?
OBAMA: I think we should keep all options on the table, but I think that our first step should be a much more aggressive approach to diplomacy than we've displayed thus far. And I think this is an example of where our blundering in Iraq has cost us dearly. Iran's the big winner from the Iraq War. They have gained immeasurable strength in the Middle East, and because of the strains that it's placed on our alliances and our leverage with other countries around the world, it's made it more difficult for us to be able to mobilize international pressure to get them to stand down from what I believe is a process of developing nuclear weapons.
ANYONE WHO cannot see the differences here just isn't very interested.
February 13, 2007 7:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree. It is the difference between someone saying they are pro-life and someone who says they are pro-choice. Hillary is the former.
February 13, 2007 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
Believe it or not, other smarter people have already accounted for the need of self defense in international law and have defined it - so attacking people just to get your way is not "self-defense". Not for the US, not for Israel, not for anyone. You can't dress up aggression as self-defense, and any candidate who says that attacking other countries is an "option" is a criminal. Period.
February 13, 2007 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now you're starting to get it. They both advocate keeping all options on the table and negotiating. They may have said it differently, but it is the same goddamned thing.
Engage the enemy in diplomacy, talks and negotiations. Anyone who sees a difference isn't thinking.
February 13, 2007 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess you guys can't tell me who is supposed to benefit from the United States going to war with Iran. I know I am three steps behind all of you, but I am just trying go figure out how the United States benefits by an oil crisis and the permanent radicalization of 70 million Iranians.
Maybe one of the trolls could give me the neocon theory?
Ron Byers
February 13, 2007 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the difference in these two statements? Keep all options on the table and negotiate. If there is any difference it is between someone saying they are pro-abortion rights and someone saying they are pro-choice.
I don't care if Clinton or Obama or Edwards wins, what I care about is a truthful record and not shooting ourselves in the foot this time by passing along misinformation or distortions.
February 13, 2007 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I hope you're making bucks working as human lie-detector. Also gene analyser since you've determined Hilary is genetically identical to Bill.
How do we decide what is best for the country? Unfortunately, or rather fortunately, the people decide through elections and public speech and assembly. We do not simply accept the decisions of some. Even if this has happened in the past, such as Roosevelt's efforts on behalf of the Brits, or recently in Iraq, it is not a principle but only a practice.
If anything has emphasized shallow thinking it is the overturning of the Fairness Doctrine, which eliminated the venues for extended discussion and replaced them with 30-second ads and soundbites on the news.
February 13, 2007 8:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Rosenberg's lovin it and so am I
February 13, 2007 8:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do not know if Hillary can get the nomination or if the United States is ready for a woman for President. However, the more she is attack by the American Left and especially for her position on Iraq the greater her chances in November 2008.
Despite wishing it away Americans are going to want a President who is tough enough to protect the nation. If Hillary yields to the Left she is done. As she raises more and more money Obama and Edwards are going to have turn on each other to separate themsevles as the non-Hillary. That is great for her.
All the other candidates are all going to train their fire on Obama and Edwards too as they need to be Hillary's alternative. Biden in particular is going to force all the candidates focus on Iraq after the U.S. leaves. I do not see a Democrat, perhaps except for having Bush as the sitting President, wanting to say America caused the problems in Iraq when most of the killing have been done by Iraqis.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
February 13, 2007 8:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Go the Yglesias link below and click the "Marshall Wittman" link re: HRC's attack on Bush's Iran policy from the right
February 13, 2007 8:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Here is the statement Obama made to the Chicago Daily Tribune editorial board in an article dated September 25, 2004:
"U.S. senate candidate Barack Obama suggested Friday that the United States one day might have to launch surgical missile strikes into Iran and Pakistant to keep extremists from getting control of nuclear bombs."
"Obama said that the United States must first address Iran's attempt to gain nuclear capabilities by going before the United Nations Security Council and lobbying the international community to apply more pressure on Iran to cease nuclear activities. 'That pressure should come in the form of economic sanctions,'he said."
"' But if those measures fall short, the United States should not rule out military strikes to destroy nuclear production sites in Iran,' Obama said.'"
"Obama's willingness to consider additional military action in the Middle East comes despite his early and vocal opposition to the Iraq war. Obama however also has stressed that he is not averse to using military action as a last resort although he believes President Bush did not make the case for the Iraq invasion."
" 'With the Soviet Union, you did get the sense that they were operating on a model that we could comprehend in terms of, they don't want to get blown up and we don't want to get blown up, so you do the game theory and calculate ways to contain,' Obama said. 'I think that there are certain elements within the Islamic world right now that don't make these same calculations.' "
Now explain the differences between Clinton and Obama's positions.
February 13, 2007 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are for Hillary. Fine. She's great. But stick to the facts.
February 13, 2007 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
No. A person who says they are pro-life sounds like they are for life but they are really anti-abortion. A person who says they are pro-choice is open to both abortion and no abortion, to be determined by the individual circumstances. The latter is negotiable with all options based on analysis of the circumstances whereas the former is actually asserting a non-negotiable stance, even if it sounds like it is negotiable it isn't.
Hillary is unequivocally aggressive in her tone and stance she only states no options are off the table after saying what she will NOT negotiate. Barack tells us no options are off the table but he WILL negotiate. He does not have preconditions. Hillary does. Hillary makes Iran out to be a hostile empire we must threaten with action. Barack says we should be more aggressive about diplomacy. He speaks of opportunities to resolve differences. Hillary does not. Barack says the current administrations position of not engaging is flat out wrong. Hillary claims that the position is one of good faith and that she would use a different strategy. Which says she fundamentally agrees with analysis and only is willing to change strategy because it has been ineffective.
These two people are saying two very different things and are approaching resolving the situation in two entirely different ways.
Point of fact, Hillary's statement is similar to GWBUSH's when it requested the AUMF. He said he was going to ask Saddam to let the inspectors in to look for WMD's but he wanted the authority to use force if he didn't comply. That was what he said, it was not what he meant, and his actions were to engage in a pre-emptive war. Same thing Hillary is saying. She is being aggressive and saying she will 'engage' but not take options off the table. Which is code for using the options FIRST, just like Bush worded his statement. It sounds conciliatory but isn't. Look at the statements:
February 13, 2007 9:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
You persist in acting as though this is a high school pep rally and we have to choose sides. I'm not "for Hillary", I'm for the democrats, and by your distortions and unresearched articles, you're making it that much harder to get a democrat elected.
You are deliberately misleading people into thinking Senator Clinton is a warmonger and Senator Obama is a peacemaker, when BOTH have the same, exact positions on the Middle East. This is the kind of crap that comes back to haunt us..."many on the left say that if elected President, Clinton will go to war with Iran..."
February 13, 2007 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Now compare that to the statements Senator Obama made to the Chicago Tribune and explain the difference.
February 13, 2007 9:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Your first paragraph: My point was of course she is Bill Clinton in a pants suit. I am not doing a DNA test. I am arguing that Bill has a political network that works. It has a winning record. If you want to convince me that she is going to be different in anything other than the most marginal ways, then fine, tell her to hire Bob Shrum or some other non-Clinton loser and wipe out like Kerry did. She has shown every sign of following Bill's lead and using his advice and his people. He knows her winning is his best move too. She has Bill's testicles in her lock box.
Your second paragraph: We decide whats best by having a republic and representative government. We do not have direct democracy, because certain policies require long term commitments not whatever the whim of the moment is. If not then we would have government by internet poll.
If I understand you correctly, you are arguing that FDR should not have supported the Brits in lend lease, etc, because of public opposition. Is that right? Or is it that you are saying that our current policy in the mideast should disregard public opinion. You make it sound like the two issues are parallell, which point are you making.
Your third paragraph: Free speech regarding political speech can not be legislated into fairness. The candidates on both sides choose this format. If they wanted to avoid the expensive ads. The two party candidates would agree to tour the country together and appear on stage together and debate each other no holds barred. No front runner ever wants this because they have the money and the advantage and their handlers insist on rigid control of the message.
Obama and Hill have already announced they will skip the first caucuses and debates. Why? Cause they can. Let free speech be or else use it to cause them to change, but don't threaten it with jail.
February 13, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Replace your period with an exclamation point. It still doesn't change you from being wrong.
Iraq invaded Kuwait. For anyone that cares, The UN under the self defense clause authorized his removal as well as numerous other UNSCRs. Under the terms of the UN mandated ceasefire and UNSCR 687, the US reserves the right and obligation to resume hostilities if they fail to comply with the terms of the ceasefire and UNSCRs. They were in breach. Find me someone that claims Saddam was not in breach. We got 1441 in order to revisit the issue. We took Saddam out. If you don't like it, call a cop. I really don't care. Exclamation point!
February 13, 2007 9:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Aaron, Violence and the threat of violence is used every day in your name whether you like it or not. If that causes angst for you, then learn to live with it. Every time you walk down the street and see a police officer, the fact that he has the "potential" to use violence on someone is his most effective negotiating point and he uses it on your behalf everyday. The American soldier and his actual use of or potential for violence is always part of America's negotiating toolbox.
"...Anyone who finds threat of violence an appropriate negotiating tool is one I do not want as my leader...."
When Barak and Hill say every option is on the table, what do you think that is code speak for? They are saying negotiating with out the threat of force is suicide. Whether they have the will to use it is a different story, but that is what they are saying because any other message than that would be laughable if it were not so dangerous.
February 13, 2007 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
I am addressing the two statements here. Hopefully, you will engage on those and note the differences. Bringing in additional statements simply shifts the focus from the thread.
Hillary is being much more aggressive, she is stating what she will not do. Barack is exhibiting far more diplomacy and addressing common areas of interest to achieve a goal. He has the best interest of the nation at heart. Hillary is speaking to warhawks and the pro-Israel lobby. A tactic which has brought us to the point we are at in terms of our ME foreign policy...FAILURE. Hillary is simply more of the same on the foreign policy issue.
Barack serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Hillary serves on the Senate Armed Svcs. committtee. He is focused on diplomacy, building coalitions and consensus. Hillary has her hand on the nuke button and is STATING that!!
Their positions are the difference between Arafat and Sadat, MLK and Malcolm X..the goal may be the same but the routes they are advocating for getting there are worlds apart.
You appear to be focused on the stated goal not the route to achieve it. Yes, Hillary and Barack both seemingly have the same goal and our nations interest at heart, but to date, their statements and methods for achieving that goal are vastly different.
That is the difference, hopefully you will take the time to see that.
February 13, 2007 10:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
Only the weak
refuse to speak
Think about it. If you feel strong, you can sit at the table with your 'enemy' and talk. If you feel weak, you will do everything to avoid that.
So why does Bush-Cheney-Rice feel so weak they cannot talk to, well, nearly everyone that matters here?
Because they have no imagination. They have one scale, and it runs from negligence to military attack. Typical demented dominator thinking.
February 13, 2007 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
You can stop with the comparisons to police, OK? Because it doesn't wash. The use of force to resolve international disputes IS ILLEGAL. Except for the very narrowly defined situation of self-defense (proportionate response to an immediate attack) or authorized under Chapt 7 by the entire UNSC, the use of force is ILLEGAL. Military attack is not an "option" - it is a CRIME.
February 13, 2007 10:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmm...I see. The difference is that Sen. Clinton would use military strikes against Iraq and Sen. Obama would use military strikes against Iraq AND Pakistan. Sen. Clinton would engage in dialogue with our enemies but Sen. Obama would engage in dialogue with Iran and Syria. Yes, I failed to see the vast differences in their positions but now it is clear.
February 13, 2007 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The difference I sense is more one of tone. Hillary's statements seem more aggressive and belicose. Maybe she's trying to sound tough so she won't be dismissed as presidential material because she's a woman. But it's that kind of calculation that I find so annoying in her. So what if she's a woman? If she's a good choice for president as-is, then she's a good candidate. It strikes me when a politician starts play-acting like this-- as she seems to me to be doing here, and in other ways -- that they're not comfortable in their own skin. I sense a desperate need here, and that's a dangerous character flaw. Memo to Hillary: trust us enough to be honest with us about who you are. Otherwise, go away.
Frankly, I want to sense that the person I can support is someone who's sure of themselves, but who also seems to have enough intelligence to admit flaws and mistakes, given the unholy mess and nightmare that the current noisy, bellicose and derranged adminstration has led us into.
I like Obama's formulations and his persona better, because he strikes me as someone who's character is more solid and reliable. He's got a lot to learn, but I have a sense that the learning curve is gonna be a lot shorter with this one.... It's just an impression, but I'm just an ordinary person, not a policy wonk. ...So I'm probably right. :-)
February 13, 2007 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
True, but defense is perfectly legal. Let's not confuse the two. We should never leave the impression we would not defend ourselves. It's just that now, with W. and the Dark Prince in office, we can't trust them to not make sh*t up to just do what they want to do.
February 13, 2007 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary seems to be echoing the Bush "we should spread our values at the point of a gun" rhetoric. I completely and unequivocably reject that strategy. If she is the Democratic nominee in '08 and maintains that position I will not pull the presidential lever when I step into the voting booth. There will an intentional "undervote" for president in CT in '08.
I am completely opposed to "wars of choice". I think sans an attack on the US, our interests, one of our allies or under the auspices of the UN, the US unilaterally waging a war is immoral and illegitimate. My question to Mrs. Clinton (and every other Democratic presidential candidate) would be her views on the legitimacy of US military actions abroad when there is no provocation. Does she advocate unilateral wars of choice? If she does I will not vote for her even if not voting for the republican either. It is time this country reclaimed our position in the world of being a leader in opposition to unprovoked wars of aggression...time to end the insanity and stop being the country which chooses to wage war.
I like what I hear from Mr. Obama...so far.
February 13, 2007 10:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hurting peoples feelings is illegal under international law.
How many different ways to I have to put this? What are you gonna do about it? You can call frowny faces and whoopie cushions illegal under international law, but if you don't like it then who cares? Hell, you can't even back it up with words, how do you expect any one to care if you can't do anything about it. Your point is worthless.
February 13, 2007 10:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yes!
February 13, 2007 10:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is that neither Barak or Clinton want to lose the support of the pro-Israeli agents of influence. The problem - yet again - is in Israel's excessive influence in shaping US foreign policy. Time for that to END.
February 13, 2007 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which is very much your right. The point being made here, is that we need to elect a democrat, and no matter who that candidate is, there is no point in trashing them, distorting their statements, positions or policies.
"Our first and immutable commitment must be to the security of Israel, our only true ally in the Middle East and the only democracy." BHO on Israel
"I believe that U.S. forces are still part of the solution in Iraq. The strategic goal should be to allow a limited drawdown of U.S. troops... at the same time sufficient numbers of U.S. troops should be left in place to prevent Iraq from exploding into civil war, ethnic cleansing and a haven for terrorists." BHO on Iraq
Now I'm just an ordinary person too, and I fail to see any huge, profound differences in their policies.
February 13, 2007 10:50 AM | Reply | Permalink
Based on what you posted, the only thing that Obama actually stated is:
"' But if those measures fall short, the United States should not rule out military strikes to destroy nuclear production sites in Iran,' Obama said.'"
The rest of the statement appears to be paraphrasing.
His statement on Iran here is no differnt, than previous remarks. He wants to negotiate FIRST. period. The goal is the same and the route to get there is unchanged.
February 13, 2007 10:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
And you can keep falsely claiming that, but in fact the UN never authorized anyone's "removal". All it says is that The Security Council “decides to remain seized of the matter.” That's why even the highest legal officials in Britain doubted the legality of Bush's war.
Bush committed a crime and violated international law by attacking Iraq. Any candidate who says attacking another country is an "option" is endorsing a WAR CRIME.
SOURCE:
Nuremberg Principles Independent
Guardian
Assessing the Legality of Invading Iraq
Georgetown Law Journal UN RESOLUTION 1441: COMPELLING SADDAM, RESTRAINING BUSH American Society of Int'l Law Insights
February 13, 2007 10:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
In reverse order, I don't think jail is implied with the Fairness Doctrine; it would have been fines assessed, like now with indecent exposure. Quite right that under current law candidates won't restrict themselves voluntarily. A common route to a law is when parties agree that applying a limit to all is fair, even though they would never apply said limit to themselves absent others' cooperation.
As to FDR and public opinion, FDR stretched and was proved pretty much right to have gotten things going. That this happened that way does not mean it should be enshrined as fundamental.
Leaders disregard public opinion at their own risk; maybe they will be vindicated, maybe not. Can we say Bush was vindicated? I sure don't think so, although some do.
We have a representative republic with certain exceptions, such as the right to peaceably assemble for redress of grievances. We allow states to hold direct referenda. We are considering eliminating the Electoral College, since some states don't follow its original practice. And of course we reserve the right to overthrow an opressive government.
It is disrespectful to characterize either Hilary as controlling Bill or vice versa. She may be a hardass bitch, he may be a flaccid loser, but let them have their own baggage. Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.
February 13, 2007 10:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is a revelation. You said, "...when BOTH have the same, exact positions on the Middle East."
Please explain to me what this position is that they are BOTH in exact agreement on. I am dying to know what that policy is.
February 13, 2007 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
And where does she advocate or promote wars of adventurism?
I don't care who the democratic candidate is, this country will be destroyed by another republican administration.
February 13, 2007 10:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
One says, ±, "Keep all options on the table, of course, but within an overall shift from a strategy of provocation and confrontation to one of negotiation." The other says, ±, "A strong Iran is a big problem, we can't let then get too strong. We'll negotiate with them to see how much we can bully them into giving up, but if it takes an attack to keep them down, that's one of the options on the table."
I wonder why you can't see any difference.
February 13, 2007 10:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
What is the benefit to America of Iran detonating a thermonuclear device in Downtown Chicago?
February 13, 2007 11:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
No, what is in quotation marks in the paragraphs is exactly what he said. That's why it looks like this: " ' a quote enclosed by a quote. I am quoting the newspaper article and the newspaper article is quoting BHO.
Right, he wants to negotiate first, just as Clinton does.
February 13, 2007 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
Self-defense is narrowly defined under international law a PROPORTIONATE RESPONSE TO AN IMMINENT ATTACK which only lasting as long as necessary to get to the UNSC.
Launching a bombing campaign against an IAEA-monitored civilian NPT compliant nuclear energy facility because it COULD one day perhaps be used to make nukes - since we found option A of diplomatic negotiation to be too inconvenient - does not meet the definition of self-defense.
If we can engage in that sort of self-defense, then we should allow others to attack us since our nuclear weapons pose far more of a threat to the world - especially since unlike the Chinese, we have explicitly stated that we are willing to use nukes against even non-nuclear opponents on a first strike basis. THat's our official policy. The rest of the world needs to be defended against US.
February 13, 2007 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Whaddya gonna do about it" is the refrain of the CRIMINAL. We already knew you were an ignorant racist. Keep it up.
February 13, 2007 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Perhaps, it is because you are refusing to engage in analysis of the position. No one is arguing policy differences. The difference is in how the policy is EXECUTED.
Just as it is with the war in Iraq, it is the the war has been executed that makes it a failure! You here this over and over whenever there is discussion on the horrible debacle in the ME. They did not send enough troops, they failed to secure the peace and they are fighting a tactical war in the midst of a civil war. That is FAILURE. You can have the best military and policies in the world but without effective EXECUTION the whole thing FAILS.
How people EXECUTE plans is just as important as having a plan.
The execution of a plan relies on an individuals executive judgment, discernment, and strategic analysis. No matter WHAT the plan is. (As demonstrated by your inability to discern the differences here.)
Obama has outstanding leadership AND judgment. He is able to understand the difference between the use of force and LEVERAGING force. He does not need to tell folks he is the 'decider' nor demonstrate he has balls.
Hillary can't. Hillary is hamstrung by gender stereotyping. She constantly has to prove she wears pants and has a pair of testicles to global leaders, even if hers are brass.
Obama negotiates from good faith, common interest. He focuses on building relationships not demonstrating his might.
Which posture do you think is going to result in more war even if the USA has the same foreign policy?
February 13, 2007 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, what makes you think that it WON'T happen if we take out civilians in Iran...?
This -- we need a TOUGH, but it doesn't matter if we have a DUMB President, regardless whether he/she is republican or democrat is maddening.
February 13, 2007 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
You need to provide a link.
February 13, 2007 11:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
So in other words, Obama says he will not rule out military strikes in Iran. One says we must negotiate with Iran as we did the Soviet Union (although he doesn't give the Iranians at the very least the same accord that they don't want to be blown up - obviously, he thinks they don't care if they do) and Senator Clinton says we must negotiate with our enemy and does not rule out military strikes either. So both Obama and Clinton are using the same bully boy tactics, that of the threat of military strikes, if Iran doesn't do what they want it to do. They both claim that support of Israel should be our first commitment in the Middle East.
Frankly, I don't care for either's policy on the Middle East because they appear to be one and the same.
February 13, 2007 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why do I have to provide a link? Look it up, just as I did - Obama + Iran.
February 13, 2007 11:14 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly. However, this is not the only issue in the coming election, which is why at this point I am leaning towards Edwards.
February 13, 2007 11:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
You don't. You are asserting what he said as if it is a direct quote and yet it is not written as a statement by him but as paraphrasing. Writing Obama said within quotes denotes it is NOT a direct quote.
Basically, I have no reason to believe it is a valid quote without a source. Especially, given your lack of attention to detail when it comes to differences that are subtle yet significant.
February 13, 2007 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Clinton basically posits negotiations with Iran as a last resort before going to war.
So is there any difference if "Clinton" and "Iran" is replaced by "Bush" and "Iraq"? I see no difference and find each position equally unacceptable.
There will be an improvements in other policy areas in a Hillary Clinton presidency, as compared to George Bush, but when it comes to this issue of waging war in lieu of diplomacy right now I see no difference.
February 13, 2007 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly? Lost me.
February 13, 2007 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
You use single quotation marks to enclose a quotation within a quotation. I am quoting the newspaper and enclosed in that quote is another quote.
I gave you the source, the Chicago Tribune, with the date of the article. Why would I lie about it? I've said over and over that I don't care who wins the primaries, I care about a truthful record and especially how that record is made.
February 13, 2007 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly that neither wants to lose support of the Jewish community. Both have pledged commitment to the security of Israel. So has Edwards, but I prefer Edwards' populist stand on domestic issues to Obama and Clinton. However, I will vote for whoever the democratic candidate is.
February 13, 2007 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
MJ, there may be a difference in their rhetoric, who they are appealing to and what political posture they are shooting for, but it doesn't tell us much about what they intend to do. I know you disagree with the contention amongst conservatives that the Left will not lay out a clear plan for the future of the mideast, but here is a great example of frustration on the left trying to decipher the tea leaves of codespeak on the left.
Here is what Hillary is saying after you pass it through the Transmogrifier:
What she really said:
"This is a worthy debate to have in our country today. There are many, including our President who rejects any kind of process of any sort of engagement with countries like Syria and Iran. I do believe that that is certainly a good faith position to take, but I am not sure it is the smartest strategy that will take us to the goals that we share."
What she means:
"Worthy debate" means the same symbolic thing as my campaign gimic of a "conversation". It means this is nutty that we are campaigning two years out and we are all going to look stupid if we can't reinvent ourselves ever 6 months. "President...good faith" is code speak for Barack is not in the first family club like me. I am being diplomatic by saying the office of president is awesome and i have enough class to note that, but I am not questioning the current occupants well intentioned bumbling, just the fact that he is a bumbler. So stay tuned, I'll probably put diplomacy first like all the democrats, but my handlers and my husband tell me this two year campaign thing is nuts and I can't commit definitively on anything until I'm forced to.
What Barack says:
"...I think we should keep all options on the table, but I think that our first step should be a much more aggressive approach to diplomacy than we've displayed thus far. And I think this is an example of where our blundering in Iraq has cost us dearly...."
What he means:
Hillary has access to resources I can only dream of and I am in danger of fizzling once people lose interest in me. So I need to stand out from Hillary, steal a lot of oxygen from her unprotected left flank and build a money network quick so that when the media stops calling, I can pay for my own.
When I say all options are on the table, I am prequalifying my more liberal than Hillary statements with the caveat that I accept the premise that sometimes the military actually can be used for something, I mean I'm not nuts, ok?
Now, Hillary hints that she "probably" will talk to Iran and Syria, but I am going to make it sound like I am guarenteeing that I will have talks. I am using the word agressively pursuing diplomacy because it even further makes it sound like I am going to try harder than hillary to find a peaceful solution, so if you are against the war, this "aggresive diplomacy" phrase makes it sound like we are storming the gates for peace.
When I say "blundering in Iraq...Iran is the big winner" Lets make it clear Bush messed up, but I was no where near the scene of the crime. Hillary has been fooled by Bush, she has been fooled by her husband, she is easily fooled and she carries the blame too, but not me. A vote for me is a new start. In the end Hill and I will probably reinterpret what we say here today and when that day comes, no one will remember and we will probably have about the same approach to foreign policy which is to lick our finger and stick it in the air, but for now neither of us want to lay out any broad or definitive approach to the mideast, because that place is a nuthouse and anything can happen over there from one week to the next, I mean have you seen that stuff on TV.
So as long as she is vague, I'm not sticking my neck out there either unless a slightly provocative statement gets me face time. We are going to keep you guessing and let the media falsely interpret our words in flashy anti-Bush sound bites that never point out our contradictions. Hopefully people like MJ Rosenberg will put some pressure on Hillary to respond to the left.
February 13, 2007 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
TJKING
You must be a real youngster. When I was a kid we fought a fifty year cold war with the soviet union. Noboby dropped a bomb on Chicago.
Know why?
We have 30,000 nukes and the means to deliver them. We could, if provoked, turn Iran into glowing green glass.
I keep hearing all the crap about the Iranians being trigger happy, wanting to die, religious fanatics. I will agree that leaders of religious fanatics don't mind sending their followers to die for the cause, but the Mullahs in Terhan, like politicians everywhere, draw a distinction between themselves and their followers. They want to live. If they didn't they wouldn't be politicians, they would have either blown themselves up already or would be monks living in a cave waiting to die.
Ron Byers
February 13, 2007 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
You sound like Chris Mathews. You're the one hamstrung by gender stereotyping. She doesn't have to "prove she has a pair of testicles" you think she does, and so everything she says is coloured by your gender bias. According to you, any woman who makes strong statements in regard to foreign policy or national defense has to prove she's just like a man.
We didn't "lose" the war in Iraq because we failed to execute it properly, we failed because we started a predatory war for no reason other than we could.
In my opinion, they're both wrong - we can't force Iran not to produce nuclear weapons anymore than they can force us not to.
February 13, 2007 11:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
Am I parsing correctly "For Israel [to drop] bombs on Iran would seem to be suicidal [for Israel]"?
If so, could you explain? Israel has somewhere between 70 and 400 nuclear weapons. Iran has none. Would it not be the other way around?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 13, 2007 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well then by all means, vote for the republican. And exactly where did Clinton posit negotiations as a last resort? The last resort she posits is force. "Engaging the enemy in talks" is hardly a call to warfare and it is a smarter strategy than to refuse to negotiate.
Frankly I see no difference between Obama and Clinton's positions on the Middle East.
If you prefer a republican president to Clinton, be my guest - like the fools who "preferred" Nader to Gore you'll only be helping the republicans to another term.
February 13, 2007 12:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Iran seen as key to untangling Iraq - [LAT]
Tehran favors a regional approach, and it has the clout to settle the conflict or block U.S. aims, some analysts say.
SO where's Hillary?
February 13, 2007 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Got it and likewise.
February 13, 2007 12:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think I made it very clear Bev that I said I would under no circumstances vote for the republican. I said if Hillary was the D's nominee and supported the policy of unilateral unprovoked wars of aggression (which I feel she does with her statements on Iran) there would be at least one undervote in CT in the next presidential election, because in that case I will not cast a vote for POTUS in '08. I cannot nor will I ever support a candidate who advocates furthering America's interests with unilateral unprovoked wars of aggression...period...end of story!!!
February 13, 2007 12:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Not casting a vote is as egregious as voting for a republican. Once again, Clinton does not advocate wars of adventure. Never once has she said she does. Not one democratic candidate has so far said anything remotely like that. ALL candidates have stated that we must negotiate with Iran.
February 13, 2007 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Right, No leader in recent history has underestimated our willingness to respond and ended up at the end of a rope. The will of GWB is a rarity and the Iranians know that. The Mullahs would never risk having us send 30,000 nuclear warheads onto Tehran?
Ron having the Nukes, and the means as you say is one thing. Having the will to use them is different. Thats like pulling a knife on someone and thinking I would never use this, but they don't know that. They are not so stupid about sizing you up, and what if you do give off the feel that you won't use the knife and someone calls your bluff and attacks.
Tell me. Lets say you are President Ron. Under what situation would President Ron deliver 30,000 nukes to downtown Tehran. You think Iran is going to say, "Hey President Ron, Heads up! We are flattening Chicago in an hour, OK? Just like we killed all the Jews last week when you did nothing. Here comes!"
Could it be more possible that they might have Hezzbollah do it clandestinely. What did We do when Iran through Hezbollah killed Americans in Beirut? What did we do when they killed americans in 1996 at Khobar Towers? Is President Ron prepared to turn Tehran into glowing green glass if we can't quite figure out where it came from, or if the CIA gives you only an 80% degree of certainty. You are right the Ayatollah's don't mind sending their citizens to die. You are right. Like Saddam and OBL, if they misjudge the "Will" of a strong American leader, they could wind up living in a cave waiting to die or dead. Don't think they haven't noticed that. What you have failed to recognize is they don't believe we have the will and they are willing to take that chance. They talk about our lack of will publicly.
They get CNN over there. What are they going to see if the click over to CNN today? Are they going to see President Ron promising to turn them into Green glass if they use a nuke against us or any of our allies (trust me they do not intend on using it against our enemies)...or will they see a 5 day, wall to wall, non stop telethon starring a majority of congressmen arguing against a surge in troops that is targeting their Shia militias in Eastern Iraq. How are the Mullahs going to read that? Are they going to be impressed with American will to confront them and their bomb making? Are they thinking 30,000 nukes are on there way to Iran soon? They are laughing out loud.
You must be a real youngster, because when I was a kid we fought a fifty year cold war. In 1981, our hostages came home and we took a look at Communism and we found the will to win and pushed aside the antiwar movement. We aggressively threatened our opponents and guess what, We won. Nobody dropped a bomb on Chicago.
Thats why.
February 13, 2007 12:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong. This is no Chris Matthews moment. I have a lifetime of experience. It is a known fact by all women. Even Hillary acknowledges this. Why else is it that she and most of the other women burst out laughing when the question was posed 'what in her bkgrd gives her experience with evil men?" Surely, you are not trying to assert that there is no societal gender bias or glass ceiling in corporate America, are you? The power structure in our society is one based on male dominance and male power dynamic, not women. Women wield power totally different from men and that difference is neither valued nor appreciated. Instead 'successful' women have to demonstrate they can wield power based on the male power dynamic in order to be viewed as peers particularly when it comes to competing for positions of authority or executive judgement, whether it is academia, science, corporate or political office.
Perhaps, this is simply another subtle difference you do not discern between what is stated and what is meant. sigh
Sorry, you are wrong again. We did lose due to piss poor execution. In fact that is why it is considered neither a loss ( we did not get beat)or win (we have no achievable goal) status but rather abject failure. Once the decision to go to war was made, (no matter how phucked up that was), once we were there it was about execution and it has been a collosal incompetent failure from the moment too few American troops set foot on that soil, to secure the peace, under the false premise of looking for WMD's. Even the generals acknowledge that.
Barack knew all this before we went to war and stated it. He clearly understood the risks and costs of a war with a undetermined goal for undetermined length of time and inadequate resources to do the job.
Again it is about judgement.
February 13, 2007 12:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
She said she would negiotiate with them before attacking them...but made it clear she would attack based on the success or failure of negiotiations about the nuclear program sans direct provocation. Morally is that any different then the reasons Bush claimed and used when he invaded Iraq?
If that is her position I will do everything in my power to try to have her defeated in the Democratic primaries. It isn't about her gender. I don't care if the nominee is a man or a woman I can NEVER support any candidate who advocates unilateral unprovoked wars of agression. And no amount of attempted "guilt tripping" will make me compromise my core principles and beliefs by supporting a politico who I feel advocates immoral policies...
February 13, 2007 12:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love the fact that The Criminal boss of the corrupted UN, that took bribes from Saddam in the greatest bribery scandal of all time is your keynote speaker on International law.
We have covered this before. The UNSC was on the take. The French for one were completely bought off. Chiracs chief of staff was being bribed by Saddam. The head of Chirac's political party was receiving bribes, and numerous French companies that can't sustain themselves other wise were getting rich on Saddam's Oil for food bribes. Kofi's Family was taking bribes from Saddam. I guess if Al Capone bribes a judge to say 2+2 equals 5, you'd believe it.
The Oil for food bribery scandal is a how to manual on how a dictator can avoid military punishment, opt for sanctions, use them to subvert the UN and then use them against the coalition that is holding you to the original sanctions. Nice job Hass.
You are being dishonest with your links. 1441 doesn't say that. that is your liberal authors misinterpreation and you are intentionally trying to mislead people. Perle never said the war was illegal. You are trying to mislead people there as well.
The UN was part of Saddam's Criminal enterprise and by going to war, Bush cut off their bribes and forced them to Clean up and send your criminal buddy Kofi Anan packing.
You don't understand law any more than you could recognize a criminal. In fact you praise the criminals. Your point is even more worthless now, Hass.
February 13, 2007 12:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, in the case of Iran, especially threatening Israel, Israel has the effect of an invulnerable second-strike deterrent. While I haven't run formal mathematical models, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that if Iran found the nuclear weapons to take out the Israeli land-based deterrent, the Iranians (and much of the Middle East, depending on wind) would get plastered with major fallout. That still wouldn't get the Israeli submarines.
Any professional intelligence analyst says to estimate on capabilities, not intentions. Iran doesn't have the capability. Israel and the US do. If Iran were demonstrated to be significantly closer to a meaningful nuclear weapons program, I might think differently, but now, I believe we need them more to help stabilize the disaster in Iraq -- which, in my not uninformed opinion, was counterproductive in terms of reducing worldwide terrorist capability. -- Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 13, 2007 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wait a second here. This thread is M.J. Rosenberg's response to a column by Garance Franke-Ruta (at TAPPED). (M.J. I do salute you for responding.) But not one of you, not one of the 62 comments here, shows any evidence of reading her column. You're all just tweedling your own little tweedles. What's lost is that Garance emphacized the CONTEXT of Clinton's remarks:
"Clinton (like Obama) ... wants to negotiate with Iran and Syria -- and she even had the balls to say that directly at an AIPAC dinner, to an audience that she knew would be hostile to this position."
Clinton was very aware that almost everyone in her audience was inimical to the idea of negotiating with Iran. Yet she pushed it on them anyway, in the face of their hostility. And she even tried to convince them of the wisdom of negotiations, saying " I have advocated engagement with our enemies and Israel's enemies because I want to understand better what we can do to defeat those who are aiming their hatred, their extremism, their weapons at us."
Take her words out of context, and it sounds like "negotiations with Iran are a last resort before going to war." Consider the context, and it is clear that Clinton is trying to find common ground among our society's various factions. That is a good thing.
February 13, 2007 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would tell Terhan in no uncertain terms that if Terhan were to drop a bomb on Chicago, Israel, or any of our other friends, for that matter, by sundown that day Iran wouldn't exist in any meaningful way.
That's what we did with the old soviets, and it worked.
An H-Bomb is not like any weapon.
GWB is a rarity. If by that you mean no other president would ever have the balls to nuke Iran, you must really be smoking dope, either that our you have totally forgotten any history anybody ever taught you.
As I recall Harry Truman (who actually pulled the trigger on Japan), Dwight David Eisenhower, JFK, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan were the presidents who confronted the old Soviet Union. The only one the Soviets ever challenged was JFK. He found more than enough backbone to back them down. I have no doubt that any of them would have pulled the trigger if we or our allies had been attacked. Neither did the Soviets and collectively they were a lot better informed than either of us.
Your comment about GWB being a rarity demonstrates a profound ignorance of recent American history.
My father, who was a combat veteran of WWII never made threats. He just made promises.
He used to say that threats are made by people who are fearful. Promises establish boundries.
Ron Byers
February 13, 2007 1:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
In Reverse order. Whether I am being disrespectful to HillBill or not, if you are implying that a person owes them respect regarding expressing who is the stronger partner on their team, I think you will have a difficult time supporting this contention.
They do have their own baggage and so does Rudy and McCain and Obama. When they offer a job application to become my President, they run their baggage through the xray machine and take off their shoes. If they can't handle that, look for another job. Regarding Cigars? If you can't do the time, don't do the crime.
When you mention the electoral college. No serious person really believes that. Some on the left brought it up after 2000, because the Liberal strongholds are in 4 basic areas. SF metro, LA Metro, Chicago Metro, and the area that is a two hour radius around New york. The rest of America is red. And the Electoral College as argued in the Federalist papers was put in place for a number of very specific reasons intended to short circuit potential plans to rig the system. Trying to rig the system by oversample Urban Calif./Chic/NY at the expense of other Americans is exactly the kind of scam they wanted to foil. Someday the advantage of the EC will slant the other way and Dems will embrace it like a teddy bear. Its not going anywhere.
Nixon beat JFK in the electoral college and the popular vote. Many on the left proudly tell how Kennedy was so wily and clever to rig the electoral college to steal the election, well we know the story and if anybody disputes that, one thing is not in dispute and that is Nixon did receive more popular votes. Using the Gore argument, JFK would have not taken office.
The Constitution is nothing but ways to hobble the government from becoming a mobocracy. Justices protect the long memory of the Constitution, the House is supposed to be the hot headed laboratory of part time represntatives before they return to their farms and shops back home. The Senate was supposed to be the cooling off place for a class of political experts that are safe from facing the voters for 6 years. The President every 4, but he draws more pressure because of his singular position, but also is commander in chief during times of war. They didn't want internet polling for direct democracy and the states that do have referendums instantly go to court when the laws pass causing Judges to become lawmakers.
I knew you didn't include Jail in the free speech example, but the threat of jail is inherently included. If you are fined for standing in a public park for spending more than your alotted time voicing your approval for your candidate, then the implication is that the state will fine you and bleed you dry until you give up, or else they physically lock you up. Free Speech or not what you call the "cooperation" of others is coercion focused on the free expression of political speech.
Back to the Kennedy Nixon story, there are extremely cordial letters between the two of them staying in touch to work out their ongoing personal agreement to voluntarily limit their spending. We have chosen to be less civil and laws can not fix that.
February 13, 2007 1:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't believe you would stand Harry Truman and Jimmy Carter up side by side. Times change. Carter was a disaster. No serious person believes that Carter belongs on a list of presidents with steely will. Lets be honest with each other here.
Your Fathers statement would have applied to Harry Truman, not Carter in most peoples opinions.
Regarding your statement about my ignorance of American history and GWB. Fact: Bush is criticized for confronting our enemies too vigorously, his critics admit that they would choose a less vigorous confrontation. Our enemies understand action. If you don't get that, then you will continue to misunderstand the issue. Show me a candidate now that you believe has the will to confront our enemies and the will to follow his duty rather than the opinion polls.
You never addressed my primary question about a more clandestine operation to nuke Chicago. That is when President Ron's mettle is tested.
Your memory of history is less than clear. JFK was viewed as weak and he did not use a superhuman backbone that caused them to back down. For one, there are examples of his attempts to remove the blockade at the last minute that was disobeyed by Military commanders, and before the internal confrontation could be resolved a Soviet plan was agreed upon that Kennedy agreed to begin withdrawing weapons in Turkey as long as the Soviets kept it secret so Kennedy could save face. So JFK overall did the right thing but made several mistakes and ended up in a quid quo pro trade with Kruschev.
I don't think many people would agree with you on Carter. If the Soviets had attacked Turkey, Carter would not have nuked Moscow. No Way! Nobody honestly believes that.
February 13, 2007 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
And that is exactly what Chris Mathews said, thanks for making my point about gender bias. Another indication of your inability to overcome your bias and stereotyping - if that's your objection, think about all the bias and stereotyping that is occupying the press about whether Obama "is black enough" to win the vote of African American voters or whether America is "ready for a black president."
February 13, 2007 1:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
Holy cow. Poor TJ has finally jumped the shark.
"Many on the left proudly tell how Kennedy was so wily and clever to rig the electoral college to steal the election, well we know the story and if anybody disputes that, one thing is not in dispute and that is Nixon did receive more popular votes. Using the Gore argument, JFK would have not taken office."
Not a single historian, analyst, journalist, pundit or historian says that Nixon won the popular vote.
Not a single one disputes that Gore won it by a half million.
This explains alot.
February 13, 2007 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I don't recall the soviets attacking the US with nukes during Carter's administration. Of course I might be wrong. Maybe the Soviets had a different view of Jimmy than you.
Like I said, an H-Bomb is like no other weapon. I have a hunch Terhan wouldn't be stupid enough to arm a terrorist group with a bomb. The risks for them would just be too great for them to contemplate.
If you are worried about terrorist bombs you should be concerned about weapons built by the old soviet union floating around some of the outlying republics falling into terrorist hands.
Ron Byers
February 13, 2007 2:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
There was an incident where SecDef McNamara showed up with assorted party in Navy Flag Plot, where McNamara started objecting to the positioning of a destroyer. CNO Anderson begged McNamara to let him give the reason privately, which was that the destroyer was prosecuting a Soviet submarine contact. Anderson eventually lost his temper and suggested, forcefully, that McNamara let the Navy run the details of a Naval operation.
That's the only incident that comes to mind, other than the low comedy when the Air Force tried to help the Navy run patrol over the sea. Soon, the USAF pilots were reporting the Red Star on apparent Soviet tankers everywhere. It was with gentleness that the Navy explained that these ships were owned by Texaco.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 13, 2007 2:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think this is a good point. Clinton should be commended for displeasing AIPAC. On the other hand, what was the alternative? Her comments are echoing the position of the Iraq Study Group, not the Daily Kos. The AIPAC hissing says more about AIPAC then it does about Hillary's position.
Anyway, I think Obama's statement on Iran and Syria stands out because it's the right position. Hillary hasn't quite gotten there yet. I am confident that she'll start moving left on a lot of issues fairly soon. I think she's discovering that Democratic primary voters are closer to Daily Kos than AIPAC whether she likes it or not. She needs to go left if she wants to win.
February 13, 2007 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
On February 13, 2007 - 3:22pm BevD said:
"Not casting a vote is as egregious as voting for a republican"
Upfront this is not an attack, I have been of a different opinion, and maybe you can expound on your reasoning.
I think the whole Democratic process needs to enter the New Age. Uniform voting machines with paper trails, runoff elections between the top two vote getters. From the primary to the General election. Just to name a few ideas.
Voting is a very heart searching. What to do?
I don’t want to be charged with complicity, because I put the lesser of two evils in power.
Why, should my vote be, either for the likes of a
Hitler or Mussolini.
If those were the two choices before you, which one would you have chosen?
Would your conscience really be clean, if you rationalized, it could have been worse?
How do we get a new system?
Someone wrote the other day about a runoff, between the top vote getters; wouldn’t this be a better idea? How do we change the system?
February 13, 2007 3:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wasn't the Fairness Doctrine in place during Nixon/Kennedy?
Being worried about mobocracy is a definition of belonging to the Republic Party (couldn't resist the name change, sorry). I am in fact sympathetic to restraints on direct democracy, as long as they can be shed in case of need. So I have no major beef with either the Electoral College or the Senate.
But as I point out, if a leader gets too far away from public opinion he is asking for trouble. Same applies to the Court and the Legislature.
Even though some felt the Constitution was sufficient in protecting inalienable rights, the 1st Amendment guarantees freedom of assembly.
February 13, 2007 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
whiterosebuddy.
Here's the link and note Obama's remarks about bombing Pakistan are linked to the scenario of Musharraf's government being overthrown by the radical extremists.
"As for Pakistan, Obama said that if President Pervez Musharraf were to lose power in a coup, the United States similarly might have to consider military action in that country to destroy nuclear weapons it already possesses. Musharraf's troops are battling hundreds of well-armed foreign militants and Pakistani tribesmen in increasingly violent confrontations.
snip}
"... I think there are elements within Pakistan right now--if Musharraf is overthrown and they took over, I think we would have to consider going in and taking those bombs out, because I don't think we can make the same assumptions about how they calculate risks."
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/printedition/
chi-0409250111sep25,1,4555304.story
Keeping people "honest" is hard work.
February 13, 2007 3:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think her AIPAC speech was extremely neocon, the only problem being that the audience obviously didn't think it was neocon enough.
With regards to her moving away from AIPAC's militarist regime-change position, I think it's far too late for that (not sure she wants to either!) as they have poured MILLIONS into both her Senate campaign and Presidential campaign. When you are dealing in the millions there are obviously going to be some strings attached.
Follow the money! Her backers are corporate and neocon.
February 13, 2007 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
You aren't so far from my theory that she intends to run against the left in the general election. No matter how she nuances now, I expect a sharp right turn after she wins the nomination.
So it's third party time. Who is going to run as the anti-war candidate?
February 13, 2007 4:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
I believe that is a very critical distinction. I look at whether the primary focus is on defending Americans. Defense of any other nation is always optional. If you don't elect someone who always keeps their eyes on the just who they are elected to defend, you wind up with fiascos like the Bay of Pigs and the war in Iraq.
February 13, 2007 4:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why do you have such poor reading comprehension skills? Are you asserting there is no societal gender bias or glass ceiling, are you? Matthews, did not say that. . There is no need for me to quote any male on the topic. I I experience gender bias.geez
Yes, good ol Glenn Beck said that he is 'colorless' It is a mistake to give the racially ignorant a microphone. Being 'black enough' is a racist remark.. It is generally springs from whites being unable to expand the spectrum of what black is, beyond the negative criminal dirty inarticulate stereotyping of what blacks are. Becks idea of black is 50 cent not Andrew Young. My question is whether a red neck bigot like Beck, is white enough to question what 'black enough' is.
February 13, 2007 4:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks Lally. I suspected that there was a lack of full disclosure in terms of context, given the core basis of our argument being about subtle differences being significant. Thanks again.
February 13, 2007 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
http://blag.xkcd.com/2007/01/29/washingtons-farewell-address-translated-into-the-vernacular/
Washington’s Farewell Address Translated into Everyday Speech
It’ll help a lot if you can avoid permanent rivalries and permanent alliances. Just try to get along with everyone when you can. Otherwise, you’re a slave to your policy, which may take you somewhere bad when the situation changes. Constantly being enemies with a particular country makes you stupid and reactive, and can even lead you to war when you really don’t need to. The government gets all involved in this, and one way or another it turns out badly. Permanent alliances are bad too, because they makes you give stuff up when you shouldn’t, cause jealousy, and divide loyalties of your own citizens, often with pretty bad results. The idea of this kind of alliance should scare any real American because it lets foreign countries meddle with us. And remember, if a weak little nation (us) gets too attached to a big strong nation (anyone else) you know we’ll be stuck in that arrangement forever. Now, foreign meddling is one of the worst threats around, and you should be constantly paranoid about it. But be careful to be fair and sensible about it, otherwise you’ll get so focused on one country or another that you slip into alliances with other countries. And then, like I said, you turn into tools.
I disagree with the writer of this rendering of Washington's thoughts, We are the bigger power and some of our allies have undue control over some of our Senators, binding them to alliances,
February 13, 2007 4:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
While this all may be true, here's the thing: if she doesn't move left, she can't win. Democratic voters hate the Iraq war (approval rate among Dems: 10%). Heck, 63% of the entire country thinks Congress should set a withdrawal date. If candidates want any shot at all of winning, a full and complete withdrawal from Iraq will need to be a central plank in their platform. A similarly liberal position will be needed on Iran. I don't understand why people aren't getting this. In six months, even a hint of being pro-war will destroy the candidate's chances. The Democratic base is pissed. Unbelievably pissed. It is going to demand absolute and uncompromising fealty on Iraq (and to the extent a second war in imminent, Iran).
Hillary's problem is that she's still afraid of the right wing attacks. She doesn't seem to realize that most Democratic voters don't care about the rightwing critiques. But she will catch on. She has to. After all, Obama announced his withdrawal plan on January 31st. At that time, he trailed Hillary 43% to 15% in Fox's January 30-31 poll. In Rasmussen's February 12th poll he only trailed Hillary 28% to 23%. Trust me, she noticed.
Go left and you get the base. Get the base and you win the primary. Organization...money...who cares? You need votes to win. All the ads in the world won't save you if you're wrong on the war.
February 13, 2007 5:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, you have drawn a line through the issue of how to deal with Iran. Because of where you chose to draw it, you place Clinton and Obama on the same side of that line, but the fact remains Clinton and Obama differ greatly in tone and, overall, in substance.
And which of the two is more likely to include, within the overall issue of "supporting Israel," encouraging her to do what she finds most difficult? Clinton or Obama?
BTW, my first choice on the ticket is Clark, not Obama, but I would vote for Clinton over any Republican I can think of. With Clinton, you get a suspect character, but with Party controls. The Republican nominee may or may not have a character problem, but there are no Party controls, only Party enablers.
February 13, 2007 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
I should have been more clear Howard. The romantic story of the crisis usually fails to explain how both the Presidents staff and the Commanders communicated poorly and ignored the responsibilities and expectations of the other. Both Kennedy brothers later would characterize the Joint Chiefs as nutcases, but McNamara later admitted that much of the seemingly provocative actions by the Commanders were a result of direct orders, standing orders or Standard operating procedure(SOP), or a failure of the Presidents staff to understand the result of their recommendations.
There were actually several confrontations between Anderson and McNamara and Several commanders operating under standing orders or Standard operating procedure(SOP) were furious when they were countermanded at critical moments. One example is when an agreement in JCS had been made that when a plane is shot down, an immediate counterstrike on the SAM site would occur. When a plane did get shot down, Lemay gave the order and the White house had it recalled. Lemay was furious.
One of the incidents regarding the Quarantine had to do with the tracking of the Sub you mentioned and a conflict between Anderson and McNamara who by all accounts was micromanaging the most minor details. In my previous summary I may have blended separate events, but here is the first one I had in mind. According to a book I read by Graham Allison on the crisis, Kennedy agreed to the blockade standard operating procedures and then at the last minute (the day of or day before) the blockade was to begin, Kennedy on advice from a British ambassador told Anderson to pull the arc of the blockade in close enough to Cuba to give Kruschev more time to back down. Anderson resisted adamantly. The argument to Kennedy and McNamara that SOP for a blockade is that it is an aggressive act and when a blockade is in place and then pulled back it in fact is no longer a blockade it is considered a sign of weakness and amongst Naval commanders is major and significant movement that entails a whole number of symbolic implications. Kennedy seemed to brush it off in favor of buying time to figure out what to do. Kennedy was sending the message to the Soviets that he was blinking. According to Allison, Anderson reluctantly agreed, but in fact did not move the blockade apparently increasing the chances of a confrontation. But this may have turned out to be the right move according to some, because it instilled the firmness of the quarentine from the outset.
"..."Upon hearing this information, it was Defense Secretary McNamara’s turn to become furious. He called it an irresponsible and unordered provocation. Admiral Anderson replied that it was standard naval procedure in case of a blockade. McNamara did not accept this as a valid argument (Brugioni, 1990: 415-417)...."
So the Quarantine was not removed, it was requested to be withdrawn within the fighter range of Cuba and Andrews chose to disobey based on the field soldiers prerogotive (right or wrong) that disobeying a direct order that conflicts with SOP and could be deemed as in conflict with more central battle orders of the overall mission is your duty.
In answer to your question about what happened to Anderson. Months later McNamara personally delivered the message to Anderson that his two year stint on the JCS would not be renewed. In essence, He was fired. McNamara went on to be one of the most infamous micromanagers of all time.
Another, near miss was a policy that Kennedy developed for signaling Russian subs to surface. They would drop training grenades, a type of depth charge, that were believed to be less than lethal, but in recently declassified Soviet documents, it turns out that the Russian commander was becoming so rattled by the near misses that he had concerns about his special orders. Unbeknownst to the Americans above, he had nuclear tipped torpedoes and was given "standing orders" that if he was hulled (a hull breach) he was to launch the torpedoes. So while Kennedy was criticizing Lemay for wanting to retaliate on a SAM site, on Kennedy's orders they were backing the soviet sub commander into a corner with impacts that were like being in a steel drum and banged with a "sledge hammer".
Also on standing orders that should have been rescinded during the crisis. An ICBM test missile was fired from Vandenberg on a routine test at the height of the crisis not considering that the USSR would have no choice but to believe they were under attack.
As my statement said, I believe Kennedy did well and set the stage for future negotiations, but the myth that he stared down the Russians and gave up nothing and they backed down is a romantic notion. He did give up Turkey, so we started out with Turkey and they introduced Cuba and won the concession of a removal in Turkey.
I should have clarified above, Kruschev believed JFK to be weak, he was wrong. They came away believing that if Kennedy would respond like this Nixon would be even more harsh. On the other hand Kennedy came across as some what inconsistent and reckless, which rather than encouraging the Soviets actually scared them. If we really want to give Kennedy points, we might wonder if at least some of the crazy like a fox, was by design. Cowboy Kennedy, lol.
Kennedy's motives for initiating the US part in the confrontation are fascinating looks into the Cold war mind set. His innaugural on "Bear any burden, support any friend, etc...", his pre-crisis discussions about pre-emption, UN reaction, sovereignity, showing our opponents our zero-tolerance in the face of threats, our willingness to risk it all if need be to secure our homeland, willingness to fire first. Even the desire to keep Turkey secret, not out of shame, but as a deterrent to our enemies and encouragemnent to our allies. One can hardly imagine Jimmy Carter being allowed in that room. It seems now days, Uncle Sam beating his own bare back with chains in the halls of the UN is the only way to satiate some American's angst over being the world's only super power.
In Kennedy's defense again, prior to the hotline and amidst Arguments from commanders in the field that they not be asked to wait for Presidential orders to fire missiles from Italy on the Soviets if fired upon, it is hard to imagine how new this type of cold war confrontation was at the time and as we are always fighting the new wars through the imperfect prism of the last, Kennedy and his Joint Chiefs learned valuable lessons that they used to add failsafes for future Cold War conflicts.
Here is one link that covers in part some of what I remember from Allison's book.
Link
In todays political atmosphere Kennedy would have been considered a pre-emptive attack american terrorist and saber rattler that violated international law rather than waiting to be fired upon. Impeachment would have been a given in todays inquisitorial and partisan political world. Which is why it baffles conservatives how some can rightfully support Kennedy's staunch defense of Liberty and his intense conviction to demonstrate American will to our enemies, but then in modern times (Carter to present) that philosophy is almost non existent.
February 13, 2007 7:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ha, Ha, M.J. very funny fonzie, As I stated, there are many on the left who get a kick out of the Daly/LBJ vote stealing scam, no? and I went on to concede that some that may have previously giggled about it, may deny that now, "..well we know the story and if anybody disputes that...". Ok so I am not going to bicker over what is a mainstay of pop history if not the real thing, got it?
Staying with your analogy, Pinky Tuscadero is still the only thing being jumped on at this point, k?
I never disputed Gore won more popular votes. In fact the premise of the analogy is that his popular vote is irrelevent. The fact that every major and many minor news organizations investigated and recounted Florida using every conceivable method of mixing chads and excluding Military absentees and butterflies and all kinds of stuff, Bush won the recounts hands down. Please don't send me links I've seen them all before and I've also seen the so called 911 truth videos of demolitions theories at the WTC, and I don't care about recounts.
The difference is no one quibbles about JFKs popular vote and I don't either, because it didn't matter in light of the constitution and the electoral college which is a real great idea from our founding fathers. The guy brought up the electoral college and he and i both agree its here to stay. In passing though I pointed out, the nuts that suddenly decided in December of 2000 that the Electoral college was stupid, would have gotten Nixon in 1960. Nixon did win more popular votes.
Let's not even consider the popular votes that LBJ and Daly faked. I think you will even concede that some where stolen there, but lets keep those out.
How many Popular votes did Kennedy get in Alabama, M.J.? How many Electoral votes did he get in Alabama? Kennedy's name did not appear on the ballot. A group of democratic electors ran against Nixon. Dixiecrat Harry Byrd was extremely popular in alabama and Kennedy was not. 6 of the electors voted for Byrd, and five for Kennedy.
Your claim that "not one" historian believes that is just not true. Ask any historian and they will tell you if they are honest. The AP reporting at the time, mistakenly gave all democratic votes to Kennedy, which is impossible. This gave Kennedy a slight edge in the Popular vote. But if you apply a realistic breakdown of the Electors or even split the democratic vote, Nixon still loses Alabama but wins the popular vote. The only way Kennedy wins is the impossible scenario of all Alabamans voting for Kennedy.
But who cares if Nixon won the popular vote in 1960. Well, for those that want to throw out the Electoral college it would seem to be relevent.
So before you jump with glee, Fonzie. There is no shark over here. Its public information. Nixon won.
February 13, 2007 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I started getting involved in Navy C3I around 1970, there were still a lot of veterans of the Crisis around, and a lot of well, short-of-war stories. Even outside the inside, as it were, there has been an increasing number of books, declassified documents, and other information that gave insights into the friction between White House and JCS that you describe. I'm quite familiar with what happened to Anderson, as I worked as a contractor in the Naval Command Systems Support Activity branch in direct support of Flag Plot. Anderson, IIRC, was offered an ambassadorship to leave early, but suggested where they could stick the proposed credentials.
Two books that cover much more than the Crisis alone: Roger Hilsman's To Move a Nation, who, IIRC, was head of INR at the time (and a WWII guerilla), was a relatively early one, and indeed discussed the intelligence method of "crateology" that I didn't think should have been disclosed. Dino Brugioni's Eyeball to Eyeball is the definitive story of US photoreconnaissance; the title refers to Khruschev and Kennedy. Brugioni, now retired, promotes the use of declassified photographs in historical research. I had him as guest speaker for the Northern Virginia Photographic Society, and the pleasure of having dinner with him, discussing how we got the first hard photographs of Auschwitz.
Apropos of what you say about routine things that should have been cancelled, a U-2 out of Alaska, presumably on a SIGINT mission, accidentally overflew the USSR frontier in the middle of the Crisis. Kennedy, when told, sort of grinned and said "Some SOB never gets the word, do they?"
Quite a bit of Cuban crisis SIGINT is online at nsa.gov.
I don't see the Jupiters (Turkey and Italy; I don't remember if they were out of the UK by then) as a sign of weakness, but as a bargaining chip of obsolete missiles that were planned to be withdrawn fairly soon anyway. They were nowhere near as potent as the GLCMs and Pershing IIs used as bargaining chips years later.
Kennedy was a man for his time. I suspect, had he lived, his experiences with the Bay of Pigs and with the Cuban Crisis would have tempered his response to Vietnam's more than LBJ's. Then again, JFK didn't have as much ego need to dominate everyone as did LBJ.
His brinksmanship was probably necessary regarding the USSR, but it was calculated against a real threat to the continental US, not a yet-to-develop Iranian nuclear threat that is even a future threat to anyone but Israel.
Much as I hate to have anything nice to say about Cheney, Cheney, as opposed to McNamara, recognized that there were things he could learn. As SecDef, Cheney ordered the JCS to run a mini-war-college for him, and probably did a better job than Rumsfeld. Rumsfeld would have reached his level of competence as a special deputy for force transformation. Again not necessarily liking to admit it, I cannot fault Rumsfeld's physical courage, as opposed to responsibility, when his urge, on 9/11, was to run to the crash site and help as one more pair of hands.
While you do respect Kennedy, I still feel that your dislike of Carter and Clinton makes you look for problems. In general, I consider Carter's presidency a low point, but it's little known that he and Schlesinger, in PD59, for the first time addressed nuclear warfighting rather than mostly spasm war.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 13, 2007 8:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The only helpful thing about fUSSR bombs, especially anything tritium-boosted or thermonuclear, is that they have a finite shelf life before they need a factory rebuild. Both the US and fUSSR deliberately built bombs to need periodic physical overhaul, as one more safeguard against theft.
I would agree that I see no obvious scenario why Iran, with a limited number of bombs, would give them to terrorists targeting the US.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 13, 2007 8:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
When one considers that buidling a functioning nuke is a huge national achievement it is beyond belief that any state would give one to even their closest ally.
They're the family jewels (family atomics). The only escape worry is if a government falls.
I often feel there is way too much handwringing over nuclear weapons. One weapon, or even a few, is not the end of the world, (maybe a city). Only the superpowers can threaten that result. And only one has ever used them. Their possession does seem to concentrate the mind, like an impending hanging.
February 13, 2007 8:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I guess it was in place then, but when two candidates are such cordial rivals as they were, Strict campaign finance laws are not necessary.
I don't mind the Republic party remark at all, ha ha. You are correct about straying too far from public opinion. Thanks for your thoughtful post.
February 13, 2007 9:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
You may have noticed the quote I included was from the brugioni book. I agree regarding the Jupiters, but again, the key is not whether we needed them, especially with sub based missiles covering from the medeteranean, but that the Soviets might consider it brinkmanship. You are right though , no great loss there.
I think you might imagine I am looking for more problems with Clinton than Carter, but they don't compare well in that regard. Carter had some hold overs from the Scoop Jackson days that helped keep him on track, but his squabbles between Vance and Zbig were unnerving. When you say Kennedy was a man for his times, thats because he rose to the occasion, Carter for me fell down at every challenge and even gave away things that were not even on the table. The recent efforts to rehabilitate his legacy are really kind of sad to me. Clinton, I think showed more creativity in foreign policy than Carter, but at times seemed to apply the theory that if it was relatively risk free in the short term, do it, if it was risky and could become a long running problem, call for a consensus.
I don't think he intentionally woke up and attempted to create problems in foreign policy, nor do I think he was in general ill equipped, I just think his challenge as a President was to catch the ball as the cold war ended. I think he put a lot of things off and they piled up. I obviously supported him during Desert Fox, and his decision to attack after Saddam sent terrorists to assasinate President Bush. His handling of the Irish deserves credit.
Regarding your mention of Cheney and Rumsfeld. A friend of mine that spent a lot of time around the two in the 70s, once told me, "I know this guy who is the smartest and most hard working guy I know, he could be president someday, his name is Donald Rumsfeld". He said if not Rumsfeld then Richard Cheney. I think they were in their late 30s then. You may remember I mentioned congressman Rumsfeld was the leading advocate of ending the draft in the 70s along with Milton Friedman.
I not only respect Kennedy for his foreign policy, but his choice of Walter Heller that prompted him to cut taxes to spur the boom of the 1960s was a model for the supplysiders of the 80s.
Forgive me Howard if my admiration for certain Democrats is usually limited to their more conservative traits, especially from the 50s and 60s, but I think you will understand. I'll try to remain open minded. Thanks for your thoughtful post and your personal experiences as well.
February 13, 2007 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
I strongly suspect that the differences are not so much in actual policy intention as they are in courting the different audiences of the two cited events. Had it been Senator Clinton speaking to the country on "Sixty Minutes" and Senator Obama fundraising before AIPAC the gyst of the details might well have been reversed. This is only conjecture of course. I do think it is likely that a successful Democratic candidate is going to need support from the AIPAC-sympathetic community. It may be a good thing to point out the differences (I personally think we should try to be much more understanding of some of the Iranian POVs and always willing to meet and discuss with the once and future hegemon of the region about anything without being too quick to threaten.). But over-magnifying a comparison like this might not be without undesirable consequences later on.
In disclosure I admire both candidates but would prefer to see Senator Clinton as our next President. I think she would be more effective at meneuvering policy objectives through the Senate based on her clout in the Senate and her experiences as a Senator and with the botched Health Care Initiative of '91 as well as the clout and advice of Clinton 42. I will admit that she would probably be more polarizing in the House.
I think that those further left will, in the end, feel betrayed if they get someone they feel more to their liking in office once the new President actually has to deal with all the realities of our until-recently-heavily-checked-and-balanced system. The next President will have a much shorter leash than the one W has had to contend with. But having said that, please don't feel obligated by me to stop bringing up the issues you find important (like that was going to happen). Cheers!
February 13, 2007 11:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Your link takes one to Brookings not to AIPAC. Is that an error? In reading the AIPAC website it seems that they are tentantively supportive of the U.S. talking to Iran. They warn that Iran has been less than honest in keeping to their agreements.
Only at a place like TPMCafe could selling out an ally be seen as conservative policy. Hillary has to show that she is tough in protecting American and America's interests and is prepared to engage anyone in the the world whether Syria, North Korea or Cuba. She also has to indicate that she can reach out to the new leader of Russia and the growing nations of India and China.
In order to do all of the above she probably needs to read sites like TPMCafe and do the opposite. It is a shame but if she follows the course here, we may end up with a Republican to follow Bush.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
February 14, 2007 7:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do like the reference to the family atomics. Now, if we could just get an alliance with the Iraqi Fremen...
Glasstone's Effects of Nuclear Weapons is a good reference for inserting reality. I'm having trouble finding a working link to a full-text version, although I'm fairly sure it's out there. The actual book has a useful slide rule. Also see Carey Sublette's Nuclear Weapons Archives, with the caveat he tends to be more mathematical than Glasstone. See the section on effects of nuclear weapons.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 14, 2007 8:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
.> Now, if we could just get an alliance
> with the Iraqi Fremen...
I thought that Herbert's Fremen were based on the Shiites?
sPh
February 14, 2007 9:00 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Frankly I see no difference between Obama and Clinton's positions on the Middle East."
But you do see a difference between Hagel and Clinton. You sure are no fool.
February 14, 2007 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
as I recall, Bush also said and said often that war with Iraq was a last resort. You probably saw right thru his rhetoric because you sure are no fool. And Hillary. She's different and you know that? oh right, you sure are no fool.
February 14, 2007 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ah. The Harkonnen's were based on Saddam, or maybe Uday?
Seriously, Herbert drew brilliantly from a number of middle eastern traditions. Given the Fremen contempt for city dwellers, I usually thing of the main basis for them as the Bedouin.
OTOH, the emphasis on inner vision and psychic power might be more Sufi. Paul's crusade might be flavored by the Mahdi Wars of Sudan.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 14, 2007 9:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually BevD I am glad you brought up not voting and since you seem so cocksure of yourself it brings the issue upfront. The issue of voting when the choices are imperfect is not the easy issue that you and others who are so smug and sure of themselves seem to think. I often wonder how a shit like Bush can get elected and how that reflects on this country and its people. But I understand the deep disgust that many on the left feel for the Democratic Party and many of its arrogant, self-important supporters feel when they mouth off at the left for not supporting the greater evil, i.e. the Republicans. I guess as my experience during Vietnam War showed, Democrats are quite capable of being as assinine, insensitive and repulsive as Republicans. After all, Lyndon Johnson, Hubert Humphrey, Richard Daley were all Democrats; most neocons came out of the Democratic Party; and Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman have recently crawled out from under the rock you seem so proud of. Why don't you tell us who you would vgote for: Lieberman or Hagel? Seriously. You say any Dem is preferable to a Republican. No ifs, ands, or buts. You know so very much and certainly tell all the fools off. The reason the Dems lost the Nader vote is that the Dems did not sufficiently appeal to those voters; BevD willing to vote for any dreck that has a D in front of its name is responsible for that and for the characters that parade as Demnocratic candidates and do not care about the disaster in Iraq, war with Iran, our sick, and poor, human rights, global warming, Katrina... If you want more left/progressives to support the Democratic Party (you possibly do not care for the fool vote. presumably calling people fools will get them to flock to your party. a new campaign tactic perefected by the know-it-all center), then get candidates (unlike Clinton) who care enough about these to campaign and fight for them; if not try to win enough conservative Dems to make up for the loss...the Lieberman model that you are so pleased with.,
February 14, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually BevD I am glad you brought up not voting and since you seem so cocksure of yourself it brings the issue upfront. The issue of voting when the choices are imperfect is not the easy issue that you and others who are so smug and sure of themselves seem to think. I often wonder how a shit like Bush can get elected and how that reflects on this country and its people. But I understand the deep disgust that many on the left feel for the Democratic Party and many of its arrogant, self-important supporters feel when they mouth off at the left for not supporting the greater evil, i.e. the Republicans. I guess as my experience during Vietnam War showed, Democrats are quite capable of being as assinine, insensitive and repulsive as Republicans. After all, Lyndon Johnson, Hubert Humphrey, Richard Daley were all Democrats; most neocons came out of the Democratic Party; and Zell Miller and Joe Lieberman have recently crawled out from under the rock you seem so proud of. Why don't you tell us who you would vgote for: Lieberman or Hagel? Seriously. You say any Dem is preferable to a Republican. No ifs, ands, or buts. You know so very much and certainly tell all the fools off. The reason the Dems lost the Nader vote is that the Dems did not sufficiently appeal to those voters; BevD willing to vote for any dreck that has a D in front of its name is responsible for that and for the characters that parade as Demnocratic candidates and do not care about the disaster in Iraq, war with Iran, our sick, and poor, human rights, global warming, Katrina... If you want more left/progressives to support the Democratic Party (you possibly do not care for the fool vote. presumably calling people fools will get them to flock to your party. a new campaign tactic perefected by the know-it-all center), then get candidates (unlike Clinton) who care enough about these to campaign and fight for them; if not try to win enough conservative Dems to make up for the loss...the Lieberman model that you are so pleased with.,
February 14, 2007 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
With the rep for elusiveness I woud suggest Tuareg as Fremen model.
Paul is Greenmantle + drugs.
February 14, 2007 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sanger, just curious here. Are you rating that marginal because you disagree with the facts? Or you don't like the conclusion that was drawn from the facts?
February 14, 2007 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
Aha! By Jove, I think you've done it! The Tuareg are unusual for having dark blue eyes...and the eyes of those who use the Spice...
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Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 14, 2007 10:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Many of the individuals that spoke at the Brookings Institute either align themselves with the Administration's neocon view or AIPAC's tough hawkish view. I saw a connection between the two in that they are 'aggressive' in their advocacy to use military force to 'protect' Israel.
Haim Saban, the sponsor of the event I linked to is himself an influential top tier AIPAC donor. Bottom Line: Hillary Clinton is taking money from these neocons.
So, NO I won't be voting for her, even if the Democrats in some moment of madness IMHO decide on her as our nominee. I would rather have a CHANCE to save the Democratic Party FROM a republican. Hillary's stance has nothing to do with her being TOUGH, it's her reactionary speeches, devoid of any nuanced diplomacy, and her war vote which has shown she doesn't have a clue about foreign policy. Being assertive in foreign policy is not being belligerent and running around with a stick in one's hand and saying to our allies if you're not with us, don't except our rationale then we can do it alone -- which is basically what she was saying at the AIPAC speech... URghh
With regard to her positions on Syria, North Korea or Cuba. India (she's is v. upbeat on outsourcing our jobs to India) and China. I haven't heard anything of substance from her to voice an opinion.
Now, back to AIPAC et. al. (even Olmert), I too have noticed that 'publicly' they appear to be tempering their 'military force' rhetoric, as they have obviously figured out that the Democratic base wasn't taking the message too well.
Unfortuantely, their tempered message hasn't filtered down to their members, hence the negative reception Hillary got at last week's AIPAC speech when she mentioned even the thought of dialog with the Iranians.
Unfortuntely, Poll: Likud back in lead -- Jan '07
With regard to Hillary's course, I think she made her decision a long time ago and it doesn't look like she is capable of changing. Hillary is not good for American's nor IMO Israel's foreign policy.
February 14, 2007 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Shimmyin' Shai-Hulud, maybe it should be Berbers, who I thought were the blue-eyes.
Have you read any Buchan?
February 14, 2007 10:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
The Canadian Governor-General? Just the movie version of The 39 Steps. Different Buchan?
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Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 14, 2007 11:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
By upbeat on outsourcing, did you mean she is in favor of it, or thinks it won't be a problem.
Were she the Democratic nominee, I'd be reluctant. As you suggest, I don't hear a coherent foreign policy, much less a creative one.
My biggest concern is that I have not seen her be able to build consensus and be inclusive. Bill Clinton's acceptance speech at the Convention was a tribute to big-tent inclusion, but her work on the healthcare plan doomed it with style of closed meetings and the sense of the (hopefully smoke-free, given the context) back room. The plan had some fundamental errors, but might have been fixable if it had someone that built a groundswell for it.
Were I to advise her, I'd remind her of LBJ, master of the Senate. She might well be able to build that role, as she does seem to be able to form working groups in an elitist context. LBJ was a failure as President because he took too many Senate techniques to the White House, as well as several heavy-duty trucks carrying his ego in sections.
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Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 14, 2007 11:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry I should have referenced that comment:
February 14, 2007 12:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
It might be interesting, then, given her interest in healthcare, to inquire how she sees enforcing HIPAA health privacy laws when the information is being handled in another country. There already have been some blackmail attempts, by offshore contractors, to release protected health information unless a billing dispute is settled in their favor.
A minimum answer might be that to offshore a job that involves information protected by US privacy and non-military security laws, the country to which the job is offshored has to demonstrate it has laws, and enforcement, of privacy regulations at least as stringent as the corresponding US legislation. This applies to financial as well as medical legislation. In some case, that would require independent audit.
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Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
February 14, 2007 12:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
John Buchan, who wrote 39 Steps, also wrote Greenmantle, with much of the action in Mesopotamia during WW I. Sort of a "Lawrence" tale, but one of his characters, a well-educated Englishman, goes deep cover as an Islamic Holy man. Confusion to the Boche and Turks at Erzerum and our heroes prevail with the help of local Sh'ia, if I remember right.
Swashbuckling tales, try Buchan's 39 Steps.
February 14, 2007 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I tend to agree with this post and I don't see a substantive policy difference between the candidates.
The risk emerging is one we can't afford - that HRC gets painted as a waffler, one who equivocates, disingenuous, etc. - like victims Gore and Kerry before her.
February 14, 2007 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink