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The Precautionary Principle

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Count me with the ever-levelheaded James Fallows, weekend wise man David Kurtz, and motherblog commander Josh in worrying out loud that the Crackpot-in-Chief and his Crony-in-Chief, playing their usual game of double-down, are going to look for a way out--a way sideways, really--from their impossible mission in Iraq by pretexting their way into war with Iran.

If any underscoring is needed, never forget how reckless this crew is, how unaccountable not only in the sense of heedless but in the sense of irrational. Here is Karen DeYoung in this morning's WP:

The success of the Bush administration's new Iraq strategy depends on a series of rapid and dramatic political and economic reforms that even the plan's authors have little confidence will work.

And further down, a tidbit of the way they "think":

"They wondered could I give them some [names] from the provinces or anywhere" from which to construct a new political base, recalled one think-tank expert called to the State Department in December.

 

What they are "thinking" is hard to imagine, since what goes on in their heads is not what most of us consider thinking. They are not masters of the if-then connection. They are masters of the blind thrust, the what-the-hell, the whee!

That's why I'm with David Kurtz in thinking that the Dems need to step up right now and push for a resolution denying funds for any military action in, over, or under Iran.

Better resolve now than try to talk yourself out of insufficient resolve later.

Update: In the Feb. 5, LAT, Leonard Weiss and Larry Diamond also sound the alarm, declaring that Congress

should hold hearings on Iran before the president orders a bombing attack on its nuclear facilities, or orders or supports a provocative act by the U.S. or an ally designed to get Iran to retaliate, and thus further raise war fever....we need Senate and House hearings now to put the Bush administration on notice that, in the absence of an imminent military attack or a verified terrorist attack on the United States by Iran, Congress will not support a U.S. military strike on that country. Those hearings should aim toward passage of a law preventing the expenditure of any funds for a military attack on Iran unless Congress has either declared war with that country or has otherwise authorized military action under the War Powers Act.

These are not fringe voices. Weiss, formerly staff director of the Senate Subcommittee on Energy and Nuclear Proliferation, crafted the Nuclear Nonproliferation Act of 1978. Diamond was an advisor to the late, unlamented CPA in Iraq, and picks up his mail at Stanford's Hoover Institution. They make this precise suggestion:

The law should be attached to an appropriations bill, making it difficult for the president to veto. If he simply claims that he is not bound by the restriction even if he signs it into law, and then orders an attack on Iran without congressional authorization for it, Congress should file a lawsuit and begin impeachment proceedings.


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It is time for the Dems to dig their heels in. The noises from Hillary have NOT been reassuring...she seems completely willing to accept the lying premises of the Bush/AIPAC/neocon crowd. (Now this does not apply solely to Hillary but she is by far the worst. Edwards was piss-poor at Herzilya, but he seems to be doing a little better lately. My God, is backbone in such short supply? Do we have to have another war and more Clinton equivocation?).

They are so reckless that even with such a resolution an "incident" could probably be deemed sufficiently serious as to essentially force action. For example if Israel bombed and things started to get out of hand - as they would - then what? The more I think about it the more I conclude that Chalmers Johnson's analysis is correct.

I don't think it's fair to lay all this at Bush's feet, not this time. The noise from our side of the aisle is almost as loud as what's coming from the White House: it seems to be choice between war with Iran now on the one hand, and sanctions first followed by war with Iran on the other. The second choice seems mildly better than the first, but only mildly.

For some reason, this piece from the AP made me think those generals know something I don't. Why would they make such a plaintive, public cry, unless they've heard there are plans in the air? It seems to me they would do better to try to organize some kind of movement behind the scenes rather than pour their guts out in public -- if, that is, they thought they had time to organize a movement.

Jeff Huber has been worrying about this for some time--and I agree that we should be concerned, and that the Democrats had better get cracking in heading this off, or we're going to be in real trouble.

The logic, from a view inside the Bush/Cheney universe, is conclusive: there's no way to back out of Iraq or to stay in Iraq. Therefore, the only way to go is beyond Iraq--to Iran.

Good post, Todd!

Did you get the bit about camels? Camels???

We're sending teams of camel veterinarians over to Iraq!

Camel vets? Do we have camel vets in this country?

What's the big idea? They're out of humvees, so now it's camel rides for the surge troops?

As far as I'm concerned, the slate is clean. I don't care how long Friedman supported the war, who voted for the resolution, who saw it coming, who didn't. All that matters is what you do now. Here is your mulligan, incompetence dodgers. All those victims of Monday morning quarterbacking, here's your chance to be redeemed. If you knew then what you know now... show us what you'd do. NYT, show me that you've learned from Judy Miller. Cable news, show me you're not going to pass on White House spin unquestioningly again. Democrats, show me you've grown the balls you claim you have.

Never again?

The only thing that matters in the 2008 primary and Congressional elections, as far as I'm concerned, is what you do about Iran. If we enable another catastrophe, we don't need a new President, we need a revolution.

They should consider flocks of sheep that could precede our patrols and take care of IEDs. Highly trained sheep dogs are also needed for this tactic. Our Australian allies have a lot of sheep...

Don't bullies like Bush inevitably go too far, pick a fight they can't handle and get whupped good? 

If Bush attacks Iran and peace, democracy and respect for the United States suddenly flood the Middle East, great....if on the other hand bombing 1,500 targets in Iran and the sequelae that follow doesn't work out well, people might say Americans had it coming. Maybe they would be right.

Which one is Crackpot-in-Chief and which one is Crony-in-Chief?

Tom

Lay it all at Cheney's feet.

Tom

Anyone who listened to NPR's Morning Edition on January 31st may remember a segment on Iran by Jackie Northam. In that segment Dr Gary Sick of Columbia University stated what he felt the Administration was up to; 1- Since Iraq is a foreign policy disaster, the Administration is attempting to change the subject to Iran and; 2- Our Sunni allies in the Middle East are annoyed that the US in effect created another Shia state (Iraq) alongside Iran. The US is attempting to appease and rebuild their Sunni coalition by appearing to get tough with Iran.

If Sick is right this is brinkmanship diplomacy and this Administration is too immature to get into a high stakes match - the neocons want it all now like the bully who tries to take over every school yard game. Without directly intending to start a war, this Administration has shown they are stupid enough to create an incident that could trigger a major conflict. That's what happens when ideologues think they are foreign policy experts.

I agree with Fallows that a line needs to be drawn. The problem is that there are many in Congress (of both parties) running for the White House in 2008 and they are all going to be saying to themselves, "If I get elected do I want my hands tied over Iran?" Some Senate Republicans will vote for Warner's anti-surge resolution, but tying "their" president's hands over Iran is another matter. In the Senate it takes 60 votes because of the filibuster and Senator McConnell would filibuster.

J. McCutchen

Amen!

Been saying that Iran was the object of the current IraQ escalation from the very first, before actually. From the minute Bush began to distance himself from the ISG Report.....

Same Old Horsesh*t
Tony Raum, Intl Correspondent AP

WASHINGTON - President Bush's tough new stance on Iran and his military buildup in the Persian Gulf recall some of the drumbeats that preceded the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. As then, the Bush administration is making allegations about Iran without providing proof. It is suggesting Iran is sending weapons to Iraq, yet offering no evidence the supplies can be traced to Tehran. There are whispers, too, that Iranian intelligence agents were behind the recent abduction and execution of five U.S. soldiers. Iran is the "axis of evil" country whose nuclear ambitions must be stopped. Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is now Bush's primary Mideast nemesis, replacing the late Saddam Hussein.....


If there is no sufficient reason for war, the war party will make war on one pretext, then invent another...after the war is on. ~Senator Robert M. La Follette

Wabbits. They want to use wascally wabbits.

Australia, like most advanced countries, does some of its military training in simulators, including armed helicopters. The instructing staff were informed some actual crews, in actual helicopters, had strafed kangaroos.

Aside from any concerns about the kangaroos themselves, this was militarily unwise. It wasted ammunition, caused the crews to waste fuel making the runs, and encouraged unnecessary and risky low-level runs. So, the simulator programmers were told to put kangaroos into the simulation, with the idea that the instructors could give due criticism following the training mission debrief.

Like good programmers, the simulator group decided to do things in the easiest way, and soon found they had already programmed the figures of infantry. They appropriated the infantry software, and only paid attention to the graphic presentation. What had been men were now kangaroos.

When the first trainee crews went into the new simulators, they quickly spotted the kangaroos, and gave chase. That is when all were reminded that when reusing software, it is wise to check all programmed behaviors.

As the helicopters came threateningly close, selected kangaroos pulled out shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles, presumably from their pouches, and let fly. Utter crew panic ensued, and several crews in a row crashed in their utter confusion, without the missile actually needing to hit the helicopter.

I am told they left in the feature, which left crews absolutely, positively, totally terrified of ever shooting at a kangaroo again.
--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Bullies don't always get whipped. And when the bully has scores of enablers supporting him, he can go a good long time.

The damage a sick bastard can do before someone stands up and caves in his skull is usually great and irreparable.

But I'm thinking that it no longer matters. In a hundred years pretty much every living thing will be gone and Washington and Crawford will be under two hundred feet of water. Sounds fair.

Howard,

That's the best laugh I have had in I don't know how long. My dog keeps glancing over at me in wonder.

Thank you very much.

Tie their feet together and drop them in the mid Atlantic. Let 'em swim back to Texas.

In July 2005, Iran and Iraq signed agreements including an agreement to share intelligence. At the time, I thought the two countries sharing intelligence might not be in our favor but apparently no one else did.

From the Gulf Times

"Iranian President Mohamed Khatami yesterday hailed a “turning point” in relations with Baghdad as Iraqi Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari made a historic visit to Tehran aimed at strengthening ties after decades of enmity . . .

Jaafari is heading a large delegation on the visit and is expected to sign a number of deals aimed at aiding his country to meet its growing energy needs.

Among them is an agreement for Iran to share intelligence with Iraq in a bid to re-establish security in the war-torn country, Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said...

“One of the sub-commissions we formed is on security co-operation between two sides. Its aim is really to establish a mechanism for intelligence sharing, to prevent infiltrations and to assist us in stabilising the situation,” Zebari said..." 

From MSNBC: 

"Iraq’s defense minister said Thursday that ousted leader Saddam Hussein was the aggressor in the 1980-88 war against Iran, as the two former enemies announced plans for closer cooperation between their militaries.

Iraqi Defense Minister Saadoun al-Duleimi’s visit to Iran marked a new effort to build ties between Iraq and mainly Shiite Muslim Iran after a Shiite-dominated government came to power in Baghdad this year.

“We’ve come here to open a new page in our relations against the painful page of the past,” al-Duleimi told reporters at a press conference with his Iranian counterpart, Ali Shamkhani.

Shamkhani said Iran and Iraq would form joint committees to work out cooperation on cleaning minefields and “modernizing Iraq’s army.”..." 

 

Cheney will say he's swimming to Wyoming. That's how he was eligible to run with W in 2000.

Tom

J. McCutchen


From the Well Duh! Dept


Anxiety building on both sides of the Atlantic. Is it any surprise then that 58% of Americans wish the Bush regime was over yesterday?


Attacking Iran would be disastrous, warns coalition of opinion led by retired officers

Halliburton must own a subsidiary that up-armors dromedaries.
Pantheon

This is how much these people believe in this plan; they're willing to send our son and other people's sons to Iraq, and yet those cowards are afraid to allow reporters to use their names for attribution in a newspaper article.

Is there anything more contemptible, more cowardly than that?

In the absence of the nuclear option, something no thinking man would use, I cannot imagine anyone would think the US is in any position to pick another war. I worry these fools intend to use nuclear bombs to make their point.

Welcome the the pariah country, all.

You said it Good 4, "... something no thinking man would use...". With the no thinking man (Bush) and the no feeling man (Cheney) in charge the people of the planet are in trouble.

Tom

Chiming in late here, but Zbigniew Brzezinski laid out the probable scenario nicely in his remarks last week before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Which, incidentally, did not escape the attention of Commander Josh (tpmemo date Feb. 1, 12:28 p.m. with link to full testimony).....
"If the United States continues to be bogged down in a protracted bloody involvement in Iraq, the final destination on this downhill track is likely to be a head-on conflict with Iran and with much of the world of Islam at large. A plausible scenario for a military collision with Iran involves Iraqi failure to meet the benchmarks; followed by accusations of Iranian responsibility for the failure; then by some provocation in Iraq or a terrorist act in the U.S. blamed on Iran; culminating in a "defensive" U.S. military action against Iran that plunges a lonely America into a spreading and deepening quagmire eventually ranging across Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.".....The only thing I'm worried about is his remarks may have given the NEOCON Artists some new ideas, because Richard Perle couldn't have planned it better.

I don't think the Neocons are capable of new ideas - misanalyze, deceive, and kill is about as sophisticated as they're going to get.

Tom

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