From New Republic: Preparing for War With Iran
"There is no debate among Israelis, however, about the wisdom of negotiations between the West and Iran. That, defense officials agree, would be the worst of all options. Negotiations that took place now would be happening at a time when Iran feels ascendant: The time to have negotiated with Iran, some say, was immediately after the initial U.S. triumph in Iraq, not now, when the United States is losing the war. Under these circumstances, negotiations would only buy the regime time to continue its nuclear program. Talks would create baseless hope, undermining the urgency of sanctions. And resuming negotiations with the Iranian regime--despite its repeated bad faith in previous talks over its nuclear program--would send the wrong message to the Iranian people: that the regime has international legitimacy and that resisting it is futile."
It is a clarion call for war with Iran.
It is worth noting that the position expressed here is pretty much identical to that of Hillary Clinton and John Edwards (who went to Israel last week too give that message in person).
I resent the authors acting as if Israel today is as powerless as Jews were in 1942. Israel has 200 nuclear weapons and the best army in the region. We are supposed to believe that Iran would not be deterred by the fact that Israel could destroy Tehran in an hour. There is something so profoundly pre-1948 about this type of argument. Israel has resources, plenty of them, and the entire Muslim world knows it. Israel is not the Warsaw Ghetto.
Furthermore, the authors seem to believe that all Iran thinks about is Israel. Sorry, guys, for Iran the name of the game is achieving some kind of accomodation with the United States. Everything it says or does is designed to get America's attention. Once negotiations begin (assuming we can avoid this very avoidable war) the Iranians can make their demands and we can make ours. In that context, we can make clear that we are not going to let Israel go down the tube and, further, that the Iranian Presidennt should stop already with his ugly rhetoric.
But war will endanger Israel's security infinitely more than negotiation or pretty much anything else.
One last thing. I do not believe Israelis share this view of Iran. Check out Gen. Shlomo Brom's
speech at Herzliyah. This is a neocon argument not an Israeli one.


Comments (291)
The points made by Halevi and Oren are very similar to that made by Philip Stephens in the Financial Times on Friday.
I am puzzled by your view. If you accept the Halevi and Oren's analysis which includes using Hamas and Hezbollah as their surrogates doesn't it call into question most of the rest of your policy prescriptions?
When have sanctions worked, except perhaps agaainst South Africa? If Israel or the West negotiates with Iran as Iran continues to work on their weapons how long before Israel cannot take out the nuclear program?
Is there an acceptable number of dead Israelis that you are willing to accept rather than alienate the American Left?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
January 28, 2007 3:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a link to the nightmare scenario that doesn't require supporting TNR;
http://www.aish.com/jewishissues/middleeast/Israels_Worst_Nightmare.asp
Caveat emptor, bigtime.
January 28, 2007 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then there's Lieberman, the great Patriot. Only problem is that his patriotism is for Israel and not for the US.
Jan Knaus
January 28, 2007 4:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re John Edward's presentation at the Herzliya conference, his appearance was virtual.
Here's the summary of his speech sans intro and paean
to Sharon:
Senator John Edwards:
"We also need to remember the three soldiers and their families for whom it is well past time for their return home. They are a symbol of the extraordinary challenges facing Israel and Middle East. One source of strength is the bond between Israel and the United States, which is a bond that will never be broken. For more than half a century both countries have benefited from this alliance. We share common values such as freedom and democracy. I was in Israel in 2001 and I’ll never forget just as I was ending my visit, a Hamas suicide bomber wearing an explosive belt blew up the Sbarro pizzeria. It made an impact on me to see the extraordinary sacrifice made by the Israeli people everyday. They continue to make sacrifices to ensure your security and achieve peace. I saw firsthand the threats you face every day. I feel that I understand on a very personal level those threats. The challenges in your own backyard – rise of Islamic radicalism, use of terrorism, and the spread of nuclear technology and weapons of mass destruction – represent an unprecedented threat to the world and Israel.
At the top of these threats is Iran. Iran threatens the security of Israel and the entire world. Let me be clear: Under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to have nuclear weapons. For years, the US hasn’t done enough to deal with what I have seen as a threat from Iran. As my country stayed on the sidelines, these problems got worse. To a large extent, the US abdicated its responsibility to the Europeans. This was a mistake. The Iranian president’s statements such as his description of the Holocaust as a myth and his goals to wipe Israel off the map indicate that Iran is serious about its threats.
Once Iran goes nuclear, other countries in the Middle East will go nuclear, making Israel’s neighborhood much more volatile.
Iran must know that the world won’t back down. The recent UN resolution ordering Iran to halt the enrichment of uranium was not enough. We need meaningful political and economic sanctions. We have muddled along for far too long. To ensure that Iran never gets nuclear weapons, we need to keep ALL options on the table, Let me reiterate – ALL options must remain on the table.
The war in Lebanon had Iranian fingerprints all over it. I was in Israel in June, and I took a helicopter trip over the Lebanese border. I saw the Hezbollah rockets, and the havoc wreaked by the extremism on Israel’s border. Hezbollah is an instrument of the Iranian government, and Iranian rockets allowed Hezbollah to attack and wage war against Israel.
I cannot talk about the war last summer without referring to the Syrian role in destabilizing area. Syria needs to be held accountable. Syria has recently called for peace talks with Israel. Talk is cheap. Syria needs to go long way to prove it is ready for peace. It can start by not harboring terrorists and ending its nefarious relationship with Iran.
While Iran is the greatest threat now, but just as alarming is the one on your doorstep. Hamas, with Iranian support, doesn’t make any mistake of its intentions to wipe out Israel, and repeatedly makes calls to raise the banner of Allah over all of Israel. Israel made many concessions. Many settlers gave up there land in order to advance peace.
Israel can take more steps to advance peace like bolstering Abbas against Hamas. While Israel is willing to go back to negotiating table, little has been seen on the Palestinian side. We instead have seen chaos and violence on the street, and no revocation of violence against Israel.
Outside assistance to Palestinian governance is not an entitlement. The US and Europe need to ensure that money going to the Palestinians does not go to lining the pockets of terrorists. For peace, Israel needs a partner.
Absent this partnership, Israel not only has the right to defend itself, it has an obligation to defend itself. This means continuing to ensure Israel’s military strength, diplomatically and economically. The hurdles are clear.
For too long, the current US administration’s commitment to this issue has been halfhearted. Now, on the backdrop of Iraq, they have tried to bring the two sides together. This is especially significant since they have squandered America’s moral authority in the Middle East and around the world.
We should be finding ways to upgrade Israel’s relationship with NATO. This could even some day mean membership. NATO’s mission now goes far beyond just Europe. Therefore, it is only natural that NATO seeks to include Israel.
Your challenges are our challenges. Your future is our future. The US will continue to stand by you. God bless you.
Question and Answer:
Cheryl Fishbein from NY: When you do learning of Jewish texts, you give credit to ideas of scholars who have helped you ask questions, I would like to give credit to my friends and colleagues who have had this same overriding question of shared a existential threat: Would you be prepared, if diplomacy failed, to take further action against Iran? I think there is cynicism about the ability of diplomacy to work in this situation. Secondly, you as grassroots person, who has an understanding of the American people, is there understanding of this threat across US?
A: My analysis of Iran is if you start with the President of Iran coming to the UN in New York denouncing America and his extraordinary and nasty statements about the Holocaust and goal of wiping Israel off map, married with his attempts to obtain nuclear weapons over a long period of time, they are buying time. They are the foremost state sponsors of terrorism. If they have nuclear weapons, other states in the area will want them, and this is unacceptable.
As to what to do, we should not take anything off the table. More serious sanctions need to be undertaken, which cannot happen unless Russia and China are seriously on board, which has not happened up until now. I would not want to say in advance what we would do, and what I would do as president, but there are other steps that need to be taken. Fore example, we need to support direct engagement with Iranians, we need to be tough. But I think it is a mistake strategically to avoid engagement with Iran.
As to the American people, this is a difficult question. The vast majority of people are concerned about what is going on in Iraq. This will make the American people reticent toward going for Iran. But I think the American people are smart if they are told the truth, and if they trust their president. So Americans can be educated to come along with what needs to be done with Iran."
http://www.herzliyaconference.org/Eng/_Articles/Article.asp?ArticleID=1728&CategoryID=223
January 28, 2007 4:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Your future is our future"
Fascinating, fascinating, fascinating. I thought you had to petition for statehood and pay federal taxes to get that kind of unconditional guarantee!
I'll bet Edwards isn't saying that in Iowa.
Do these idiots THINK about what they are saying and the kind of over the top commitments they are making?
We've got a population that's more than 95% not Jewish. What delusional fool in Israel would believe that our commitment is unconditional?
January 28, 2007 4:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
It would be one thing if Israel did not have the bomb. But they do. The Iranians know that if they attempted to use any nuclear bomb against Israel, they would be annihilated.
Why is this situation any worse than, say, the nuclear stalemate between India and Pakistan?
Why the hysteria? Even if Mr. Ahmedinejhad would have control of Iranian nukes (which he proabaly will not), why is it beyond the pale to think that Mutually Assured Destruction would work in this situation?
January 28, 2007 4:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Iran Images not usually seen
http://www.lucasgray.com/video/peacetrain.html
January 28, 2007 4:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Since you're saying that sanctions are useless, I presume you like the military option.
If so, what do you think that the possible negative consequences of an Israeli/US attack on Iran would be?
What would happen if Iran retaliates by:
- A large scale missile strike on Israeli cities
- Attacking US Ships (naval or commercial) in the region
- Blockading the flow of oil tankers in the region
- Missile attacks on US forces in the region
- Attacks on US Soldiers in Iraq through proxies
- Terror attacks on the US military in the region or outside
Do you see any scenario where the US and/or Israel attacks Iran and it doesn't lead to escalation?
I only mention this because the US currently has 130k or so soldiers in a country that is run by organizations with strong ties to Iran (al dawa, SCIRI), and has supply lines a couple hundred miles long through shiite territory. Do you think an attack on Iran - making for the potential of the US being involved in three simultaneous wars - will make matters better?
What do you see as the likely short term consequences of such an attack, and do you see it as acceptable?
Perhaps the US could take Iran up on its long standing offer to negotiate?
January 28, 2007 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
IF:
We are absolutely committed to Israel, and therefore must assume Iran is an implacable enemy intent on using nukes, someday in the indefinite future, we are shackled to a heartbreaking and hopeless task.
That would be ensuring control of the Middle East, which has not gone well to date, and there is not much reason to suppose we or Israel can do better.
The wisdom of the conservative position is that governments can't really control things intelligently. While I disagree with that as an absolute position, especially within our borders, it has resonance in the wider world. Given that we know ourselves best, and other cultures to varying degree less, and considerably less when we get to the Middle East, what kind of hubris says we can take on this Herculean task?
Here I repeat my stance; make friends, not enemies. We and Israel can use more friends. Enemies we don't need. The USSR had a position that we were the losers and they would bury us, economically and militarily. Even so we talked and managed to get along, keeping our contests controlled and small.
Trying to control Afghanistan and Iraq is using us up. Add Iran and we're headed down the tubes. Simply whacking Iran is a prescription for more terrorism, which is supposedly an existential threat. While I would not call it that, it is terrible and to be avoided. Why invite it?
Why not simply announce a nuclear guarantee for Israel? If we assume Iran's leaders are nutso and intent on sending their citizens to Heaven prematurely we'd better get started on Armageddon. But I would assume they are not that different than us underneath. They want their country to prosper, which will reflect well on them and their legacy.
What Irans's leaders will want, at such time in the future if or when they develop nuclear weapons, is unknown now. But certainly it will be different than the current circumstances, and we just have to wait and see.
January 28, 2007 5:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
The United States has, what, 30,000 nuclear weapons (maybe less but not many) with the world's most advanced delivery systems. I am sorry, but nuclear weapons are not the weapon of choice for any potential adversary of either the United States or Israel. It would be much more productive to engage the United States the way China has engaged, peacefully, stealing our future and ruining our economic base by flooding the US with cheap goods. The Americans currently in power are so unaware they haven't even figured out who are their real adversaries. That is what happens when foreign policy is run by incompetents.
The Israelis have been fighting fools willing to throw themselves onto funeral pyres far too long. This isn't 1967. The Israelis seem to have lost their strategic vision.
Iran will not engage straight up like Egypt. They have, using their agent Chalibi, done a wonderful job of tying America down in Iraq, draining us of precious resources, and stripping us of our friends and allies, all without doing much more that sending a few special ops people to Iraq.
The nuclear threat is hopelessly overrated, unless you believe the Iranians are insane religious fanatics bent on self-destruction. If you do you have fallen into their trap. You are very foolish.
Iran wants to win. It wants to live to tell about its win. The only sure thing in this world is a half baked Iranian nuclear attack on either the United States or Israel will result in no one being around to do the telling.
Ron Byers
January 28, 2007 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks so much
January 28, 2007 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
"It would be much more productive to engage the United States the way China has engaged, peacefully, stealing our future and ruining our economic base by flooding the US with cheap goods."
A lot of the trade imballance between the US and China consists of US companies making cheap goods in China and importing them into the US.
"We have seen the enemy and he is us."
January 28, 2007 5:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hillary Clinton's anti-escalation stance is a joke. Once we bomb Iran (and we all know its going to happen), we have to maintain or increase the number of troops in Iraq.
Is there anyone who can get Clinton to render an opinion about the number of troops in Iraq if Iran is bombed? I just can hear the campaign rhetoric - first, she was for the war, then she was against it and now she's for it. Mrs. CiC, my ass.
Start telling people in this country that more and not less troops will be needed in Iraq if we bomb Iran and just see how much public support for bombing Iran there is.
January 28, 2007 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sun-Tzu wrote the Art of War. He was from China. Too bad nobody in the current administration reads old books. If they did they would figure out that the Chinese leadership have read more than Mao's Little Red Book. More to the point, looking at how the Iranians engaged Israel last summer using their Hezbollah proxies, it would appear that somebody in Iran's elite has read something in addition to the Koran.
A bull elephant can be killed directly only with great difficulty and danger. It is much easier to kill one indirectly by leading him into a swamp.
Ron Byers
January 28, 2007 5:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
The West has been negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program for years now. In this, the Bush Administration followed exactly the prescription laid down by the international community, letting the Europeans take the lead.
It is no such thing. It is in fact quite a balanced piece, giving plenty of space to those who favor strong sanctions instead of war. Here's the key passage, for those without TNR access:
The piece does not argue for war or sanctions or something else. It argues that the problem must be taken seriously, which so many refuse to do, and that we are rapidly approaching a crisis point.
January 28, 2007 6:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The US's idea of "negotiations" is to make pre-emptive demands on Iran to abandon a uranium enrichment program that is perfectly legal, economically justified and initially supported by the US in the first place.
January 28, 2007 6:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Edwards the fool doesn't know what the f he's talking about.
So who gave him (and lord knows how many other American politicians) a chopper ride into Lebanon's SOVEREIGN airspace during the summer war to show him Hezbollah's rockets? What rockets? Oh, maybe he means THESE rockets that Thomas Ricks noted to Howie Kurtz (and later much regreted opening his yap about):
"Tom Ricks, you've covered a number of military conflicts, including Iraq, as I just mentioned. Is civilian casualties increasingly going to be a major media issue? In conflicts where you don't have two standing armies shooting at each other?
THOMAS RICKS, REPORTER, "THE WASHINGTON POST": I think it will be. But I think civilian casualties are also part of the battlefield play for both sides here. One of the things that is going on, according to some U.S. military analysts, is that Israel purposely has left pockets of Hezbollah rockets in Lebanon, because as long as they're being rocketed, they can continue to have a sort of moral equivalency in their operations in Lebanon.
KURTZ: Hold on, you're suggesting that Israel has deliberately allowed Hezbollah to retain some of it's fire power, essentially for PR purposes, because having Israeli civilians killed helps them in the public relations war here?
RICKS: Yes, that's what military analysts have told me.
KURTZ: That's an extraordinary testament to the notion that having people on your own side killed actually works to your benefit in that nobody wants to see your own citizens killed but it works to your benefit in terms of the battle of perceptions here.
RICKS: Exactly. It helps you with the moral high ground problem, because you know your operations in Lebanon are going to be killing civilians as well."
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0608/06/rs.01.html
It also must help to provide a boo-scary show-and-tell to ignorant and compromised American politicians. How very generous of the IDF and the Foreign Ministry Dept. of Hasbera to arrange such exciting and educational field trips.
January 28, 2007 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a link to the whole piece of TNR enchilada for those who aren't willing to swallow BTD's generous offering of salt:
http://www.aish.com/jewishissues/middleeast/ Israels_Worst_Nightmare.asp
January 28, 2007 6:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's interesting is that if the Israel Lobby in the USA had not been so arrogant, then a nuclear -armed Ahmedinejhad would currently be Saddam Hussein's problem --not ours.
And Iraq would be Ahmedinejhad's problem --not ours.
Ah, but everything has to be done solely from the viewpoint of Israel.
Sharon envisioned importing 1 million new Jewish immigrants to offset the Arab's greater birth rate. But Israel does not have the water to expand.
So it has to take the water out of the Turkish headwaters of the Euphrates. Which Saddam objects to so Saddam has to go.
But how to get the Americans to do the dying? Ah, have Kenneth Pollack, "Director of Research" for Israeli billionaire Haim Saban, tell America that Saddam is on the verge of acquiring nukes.
You would think Kenneth would go in hiding. But this morning I turn on Meet the Press and who do I see? Ta Da. Kenneth Pollack.
Presumably, in the words of John Edwards, "So Americans can be educated to come along with what needs to be done with Iran."
So tell me. Back in 2002, How did John Edwards vote re the attack on IRAQ?
January 28, 2007 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, now that we have all read the Peretz-prop, let's get real.
1. Iran's President suffered a strong recent setack at the polls. His populist economic policies have not pulled the country out of its stagnation, and his diplomatic missteps have left Iranians feeling beleaguered and isolated. (Sound familiar?) News reports indicate that both the public and the leadership are feeling insecure and anxious - not "ascendant".
2. The currently popular notion of an expansionist and ascendant is a spectacular fraud - the phantom projection of a very successful campaign of public diplomacy by US hawks and Iranian rivals in the Middle East. Iran is in fact surrounded by countries in which there is a US presence: Afghanistan, Pakistan, the Gulf States and Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and perhaps soon Turkmenistan. The US also has a very strong naval presence in the region. The Us and two of its allies in the region possess nuclear weapons, unlike Iran. No state has ever been more contained than is Iran.
3. Iran is working to prevent the return of a Sunni dominated government in Iraq, and toward that end is working to strengthen and support the Shia community and Kurdish community there. Indeed, it has given its strongest support to the very same groups - Sciri, the Kurds, Sistani - that the US has supported throughout most of the conflict.
4. Iran is also antagonistic to the global Salafist and Sunni jihadist movements, in and outside of Iraq. Since these are the people who have been responsible for almost all of the terrorism in recent decades against US and western interests, this is another area in which Iranian and US interests coincide. There were no Iranians on the jets that hit the World Trade Center towers. There were 15 Saudis on those planes.
5. Iran has racing domestic demand for energy, and its rising domestic needs are outpacing increases in production. At the current rates of increase, Iran will be unable to export petroleum by 2015, thus losing its most important source of hard currency. Thus Iran has excellent reason for developing a domestic nuclear power program.
6. Whether one believes Iran does or does not have a nuclear weapons development program, it is clear that Iran currently has no nuclear weapon, and is still quite far from having one. At the same time, US hawks show lttle evidence that they possess any really serious commitment to a nuclear-free Middle East. Iran is pinned between two states that do possess nuclear weapons, and both these states are US allies and clients.
7. Whether Halevi and Oren like it or not, Iran does possess international legitimacy. It is a UN member state and its government has been recognized and enjoys diplomatic relations with most of the world's nations.
8. Despite some very legitimate human rights charges that can be levied against Iran, Iran has a substantially more democratic system of government than Saudi Arabia and the other regional monarchies and despotisms. It's intellectuals are also freer to criticize the government than are those in Saudi Arabia. It's women possess more freedom and economic prospects than Saudi women. And yet US hawks and Israelis are perfectly willing to work with Saudi Arabia on behalf of their material interests, and against "illegitimate" Iran
9. Just as in the case of Iraq, the agitators for war pretend they are terrified by a pressing threat. But in fact they are more interested in attacking Iran while it is perceived as weak, and during a moment of opportunity which presents itself because US attentions are absorbed by the region, and the US public is perceived as aroused and manipulable.
10. Oren and Halevi are not afraid negotiations with Iran will fail. They are afraid that negotiations will succeed, and that by pursuing them the US will sccessfully advance the interests of the American people in a way which works contrary to the interests of Oren and Halevi.
11. If the Saudis and Israelis are successful in manipulating the US government to re-order its alliances in Iraq, and if the US administration begins to work with the very people who have been killing our soldiers for 4 years, and against the people who have assisted us and refrained from killing our soldiers, then this about-face will constitute a stab in the back of epic dimensions, and a betrayal of every soldier who has died fighting the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. I encourage any politicians who are considering supporting this turnabout to contemplate how they will answer to our soldiers when they return from Iraq.
12. For Israel, promoting or pursuing aggression against Iran may or may not be the smart play. Perhaps it would improve the balance of power in its favor in Lebanon and Syria. Or perhaps this is just a delusion of Israel's hawks. But the intersts of the United States clearly point toward negotiations with Iran, and the development of a more cooperative relationship. The US should aim at regional balance and pacification. It should not be signing on for a ridiculous and destabilizing Sunni-Shia Cold War. If Americans fall for this nonsense just five years after the Iraq War flim-flam, they will deserve to go down in the historical annals as the greatest congregation of saps the world has ever known. Perhaps the most representative US philosopher was P.T. Barnum after all?
13. The US media has a chance to redeem its honor by working aggressively to disclose the disinformation feeding the escalatory propaganda aimed at war on Iran, and to pull the props away from the staged pseudo-events and pseudo-crisis that will be part of the buildup. Wrong once, they can claim they were hoodwinked along with the rest of us. Wrong again, and it will only prove they are in the tank, i.e. taking a dive
January 28, 2007 6:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am usually reluctant to cite Robert Novak, but he had a very interesting column back in 2002 in the Chicago Sun Times.
The column described a private talk between Ariel Sharon and US Senators
in which Sharon urged that Saddam Hussein be removed.
The column is here: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4155/% 20is_20020617/ai_n12466410
A few excerpts:
******************
"We need many more Jews to come to Israel, a million more Jews," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee behind closed doors last week. Here was something entirely new even for well-informed senators, and their facial expressions conveyed surprise. Massive immigration to a country of 6 million signified no interest by Sharon in negotiating a settlement with the Palestinians.
Indeed, speaking off the record to mostly uncritical American politicians, the old soldier-statesman was even more blunt than he is in public. Sharon pointed to no Israeli-Palestinian deal for at least 10 years and talked of a hundred years' struggle with Arabs. Warning of Egyptian and Saudi duplicity, he informed the senators that removal of Saddam Hussein from Iraq would be the best way to deal with Palestinians."
*********
"Sharon claimed the ancient boundaries of the "Land of Israel" are guaranteed to the Jewish people by Holy Scripture. "The pope told me so," Sharon added. That sent freshman Republican Sen. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island home to search the Bible for justification. Sharon added he was prepared to compromise anyway, but was not specific, and he emphasized he never would compromise Israel's security."
*********
"Committing himself to a hundred years' war against Arabs, Sharon warned the senators not to trust his adversaries--including moderate states closely aligned with the United States. He expressed nothing but contempt for Egypt's Hosni Mubarak. The royal rulers of Saudi Arabia, he said, are liars. The only Arab leader he spoke of favorably was Jordan's King Abdullah. Sophisticated senators perceived Sharon pointing to the Kingdom of Jordan as the only Palestinian state, take it or leave it.
Voices of Arab caution should be disregarded, said the former Israeli general, when it comes to ousting Saddam. Sharon contended U.S. military action against Iraq, instead of exacerbating the Palestinian problem, would end it. No senator disputed this judgment.
A few Foreign Relations Committee members left this remarkable session deeply disturbed about the outlook for peace in the Middle East. They include Biden, Kerry, Chafee and Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska. However, the current political climate precludes overt criticism of Israel or even so controversial a figure as Sharon."
*******
January 28, 2007 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel's worst nightmare is that the US and Iran may start to get along, and Israel ends up playing the role of a Taiwan in a Nixon-goes-to-China scenario: kicked to the curb.
Trita Parsi, author of "Treacherous Triangle - The Secret Dealings of Iran, Israel and the United States" (Yale University Press, 2007)That's why they've consistently underminded and sabotaged any chance of improved ties between the US and Iran, and have had their NeoCon agents in the US editorialize against talks with Iran - its "appeasement of Hitler" don't you know!
So what it lots of Americans and Iranian end up dying. So what if there's a civil war in Iraq? No skin off of Israel's back. Israel will fight to the last American Marine to weaken competitors and dominate the Mideast.
January 28, 2007 6:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Democrats race for AIPACish money, the Republicans race for the fundamentalists and their crazy, Israel-centered apocalyptic vision, and the rest of us lose no matter which of them wins. MJ, I don't even know why you bother. The whole topic is a waste of time.
January 28, 2007 7:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
The tragedy isn't that Israel and its Bushevik allies are out for war with Iran without negotiating first.
The tragedy is that these criminals having stumbled into one abyss wish to drag the rest of the world along with them into yet another.
January 28, 2007 7:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Been There Done That
January 28, 2007 7:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
To the people who don't know shit about Iran, and that includes most of you: read this, a long essay in the NY Times Magazine about Iran.
For MJ Rosenberg to say "I haven't formulated an opinion on all this" in the face of so much information available about Iran is so fucking obscene, it blows my fucking mind, even knowing american indifference to every other country on the fucking planet. And Israel is just America in the desert right?
Hass, what the fuck is going on?
January 28, 2007 7:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I actually would like to have Israel safe.
The idea to weld the safety of Israel to an increasing unpopular war, and THEN to triple the scale of this war is so stupendously moronic that it actually requires some IQ.
On the other hand, this is dream come true to abicyclist (I do not mind 6 dollars for gallon of gas) and a classical history buff --- and empire overextends itself over the sands of Mesopotamia to be subsequently wacked by Persians.
January 28, 2007 7:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Strike Edwards from viable candidates.
January 28, 2007 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those who are into detailed military strategy, the following is a link to a "working paper" titled "Osirak Redux?" produced at MIT that helpfully gives the Israelis some scenarios they can pursue in their attack on Iran.
(I ran across it because of my interest in Incirlik and due to some very curious goings on there of late, followed some promising threads. Oren and Halevi (briefly) and this working paper discuss the northern route and IMO it's more a viable option than either source admits)
This is the html version of the file;
http://web.mit.edu/ssp/Publications/working_papers/wp_06-1.pdf.
From the intro:
.....
"More than twenty years later, some in Israel are again mulling the possibility of preventive action against an unfriendly state’s attempts to gain nuclear weapons, this time Iran. In a report given to Prime Minister Sharon in 2003, a group of Israeli and American scholars and analysts present a grand strategy that calls for Israel to develop and maintain a “Long Arm” capability for long-range precision strike. This report, known as Project Daniel, further argues that this “Long Arm” be used for preventive action against attempts by unfriendly states to gain weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
5 Theproject’s chair, Louis Rene Beres, reiterated this view in a recent op-ed, calling on Israe to maintain strong preventive capability against adversaries’ attempts to develop WMD even as it develops anti-ballistic missile systems.
6 As Iran’s nuclear program moves forward, the argument of the Project Daniel group may seem increasingly compelling to the government of Israel (as well as outside observers in the U.S. and elsewhere). Yet no unclassified net assessment of Israel’s
current capability to destroy Iranian nuclear facilities exists.
7 The capabilities of the IAF have grown dramatically in the past two decades, yet the Iranian facilities are a significantly more challenging target than Osirak. This paper will attempt to fill this gap in the existing literature by providing a rough net assessment of an Israeli strike on known Iranian nuclear facilities. It will do so by taking the strike on Osirak as a generic template for the strike and then
attempting to update the scenario to account for both the improved IAF capabilities and the much tougher Iranian defenses. "
Have fun.
January 28, 2007 7:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Israel didn't think she was already safe, no way would she attack Iran.
This scenario will also include attacks on Hezbollah and Syria. We and some our good buddies will be involved sporting different guises depending on individual circumstances.
January 28, 2007 7:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly! And this precisely parallels the Bush-Cheney attitude toward U.N. inspections in the pre-Iraq day: their efforts (including illicit surveillance and such) focused entirely on making sure the inspectors would be seen as failing.
January 28, 2007 8:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Daniel Greenbaum says, apparently on the basis of exceptionalism,
Let me rephrase more generally: is there an acceptable number of dead [Country-X-ians] that you will accept rather than alienate [Some bloc within the US political system]? Country-X has no mutual defense treaty with the US, and is not a candidate for multinational peace enforcement (not just peacekeeping).
No, I wouldn't say there is an acceptable number. I'd more phrase it as "is there an unacceptable number before the US commits unilaterally, in a manner that will get US troops killed." So far, that doesn't seem to have happened in Rwanda, Cambodia, Darfur...
In other words, no, I don't necessarily see any number of Israeli dead that would guarantee US military involvement, unless a far more direct threat to US national security emerged. A relatively small uranium enrichment centrifuge cascade is not a clear and present threat.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
January 28, 2007 8:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have a confession to make, because I'm finding myself posting on subjects more on emotion than logic. In general, I feel I have a neutral attitude, leaning in the friendly direction, to Israel. I certainly have respected colleagues there.
It just struck me that my emotional responses to Mr. Greenbaum has gotten my postings to be more hostile toward Israel. That isn't quite right. My responses make me more and more suspicious of Israeli exceptionalism, and more and more in favor of the US distancing itself.
Are these reactions, on my part, unique? Or might they be indicative of the reaction of an increasing number of American voters -- yes, and decisionmakers -- to what seem increasingly shrill demands for American blood and treasure?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
January 28, 2007 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
thanks for bringing this up.
January 28, 2007 8:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is apparently already in the last stages of preperation.
At 6PM CST today Minnesota Public Radio carried a news brief regarding the departure of ground crews and flight crews for places unknown attached to the B-1 Bombers based at Ellingworth AFB in South Dakota. The B-1's have already left. The crews left on Sunday.
You can hear it yourself by going to Minnesota Public Radio, and look on the News and Information service for the Commonwealth Club speech by William Perry about the Iraq Study Group, and if you listen to his speech the news bulletin immediately preceeds his speech.
B-1's gone -- it may be too late to think.
January 28, 2007 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I love this. We have to go to war with someone because the time to talk was 4 years ago.
Errr ... right ....
January 28, 2007 8:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
Several technical points are relevant. If B-1's have been committed to attack Iran, that attack is not going to be nuclear. Under arms limitation agreements with the Russians, B-1's are not nuclear delivery vehicles and are subject to inspection that they have not been so equipped.
AFAIK, the B-1 also is not certified to carry the large "bunker buster" bombs. It is more likely to be used for a mission requiring many smaller conventional bombs, perhaps precision guided. Might there be such a mission in Iraq, or could this be diversionary?
If there were to be an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities, I'd think the likeliest platform would be the B-2 stealth bomber, which has a better chance of penetrating air defenses, and also is certified for B-61/B-83 nuclear weapons and for the GBU-34 conventional "bunker buster". The B-61-11 is the only US nuclear weapon with any ground penetrating capability; that might make it more survivable if it had to go through a hole opened by something else, with debris still flying.
The home base for the 509th Bomb Wing, the only unit flying combat-ready B-2's, is Whiteman AFB in Missouri. There may be some forward-deployed at Diego Garcia or Guam. A few aircraft are assigned to other bases, but for R&D.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
January 28, 2007 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard, I have been suspicious of Israel for years, so I am not a good measure.
During the 80s and 90s I grew more suspicious of the Palestinians because they seemed implacable. Facts on the ground may be undesirable, but realists should dominate if you want to achieve any of your political goals.
However, the clear link between Israel's interests and current American policy in the Middle East is inescapable. If you will allow a non-PC analogy, Israel is like a disabled sibling who always demands and gets its way, pushing further and further into the absurd. Current American indulgence of these tantrums has gone too far, we are ourselves endangered because of them.
January 28, 2007 8:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why have we done so little to control Musharraf, who implicitly threatens 1 BILLION Indians, and then we get bent out of shape about Iran not even threatening 6 million Israelis? It is obvious that our stated policies are a farce.
January 28, 2007 8:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I followed the link in your post, lally, it took me to the aish website, but it said the article wasn't there. I was able to bring it up by using the aish search function for a search on the title, Israel's Worst Nightmare.
Just letting other's know how to get to it...
Politics is the art of preventing people from taking part in affairs which properly concern them. --Paul Valery
January 28, 2007 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrongheaded does not begin to describe the idea of using force without exhausting every negotiating option.
I am a Jew. I have family in Isreal. My parents were adamant Zionists. I have a deep abiding fondness and connecton to Israel, a land I have visited. Israel, and the Israeli right wing which has unfortunately controlled Israeli politics far too much for the last decade are promoting diasastrous policies, both for Isreal, and the US. If you need proof, pick up a paper and read abut Iraq. Look at the results of the recent dust-up with Lebanon. Far from securing us, or Israel, attacking Iran will weaken and perhaps destroy us.
As Atrios says, "The stupid, it burns!"
January 28, 2007 8:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Israel is of absolutely ZERO strategic value to the United States. It is JUST ANOTHER COUNTRY. It has exhibited more egregious behavior than any half-dozen other countries.
Israel's strategic goals should be of no motivating interest to the US. They act on their own. If they want to be treated as a US state, perhaps they should petition to be admitted as a state. We would have to think long and hard about that one, but at least with the precedence of Utah, we can demand some pretty sharp reforms as a condition of entry.
January 28, 2007 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
One of the few useful things I've learned about this topic is that when people say, "I haven't formed an opinion on this," they really mean either "I have formed an opinion, but my ethics and common sense are balanced by my nationalistic allegiance to side X," or else, "I don't have the courage to say what I believe/think/feel." If you read real closely between the lines of the person's future comments, you can usually figure out which one it was.
I still wonder why anyone bothers. The whole topic is a pilotless plane, on its way to some crashlanding somewhere. We're just spectators, arguing over which patch of ground will be unlucky.
January 28, 2007 9:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wrong. Lieberman's patriotism is for himself.
January 28, 2007 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
We have a pilot, Darth Vader is using his "mind" to direct the Chimp's hands. Darth is drunk and the Chimp has no thumbs.
January 28, 2007 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there an acceptable number of dead Arabs that you are willing to accept rather than alienate the American and Israeli Right?
Because so far there are a lot more of them then there are dead Israelis.
Israel is the biggest threat to stability in the region.
And Israel has the bomb.
And Israel has threatened to use it.
And I don't trust them not to use it.
In fact I trust them less than I trust Iran. And so, I would bet, do most of the other people on this fucking planet. A criminal's claims of moral superiority over a victim don't count for much.
January 28, 2007 9:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
If you do not listen and respond to friends
and will never talk to adversaries,
you lock your country into military action.
When these actions are not producing your goals
and you spread new conflicts,
your actions are seditious to your country
and called war crimes by other countries.
-----------------------------------------------
Today, are we searching for I deals or Ideals?
-Thinking
January 28, 2007 9:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
In fairness to Israel itself, I would point out that the oligarchs I criticize for warping US policy here ALSO dump a lot of money into Israeli elections. Ask Peres who Haim Saban is. heh heh
Dick Cheney and George Bush are creatures of Big Oil -- and are using the Israel Lobby in the course of pandering to the Lobby. Iran claims that oil under the Caspian Sea -- and Chevron's $Billion investment in Kazakhstan is at risk from Iranian guerrillas. Anyone want to guess which pudgy Vice President served on Kazakhstan's Energy Board in the 1990s??
If anyone has any doubts re who will be left holding the smelly bag of shit when the music stops, I refer them to medieval Jewish history.
More and More, Israelis going to be hated by the Islamic World not because they are Jews but because they are allies of George Bush.
Hitler and many of the Brownshirts were saved from destruction on the Western Front of WWI because Jewish Bolsheviks helped overthrow the anti-Semitic Tsar of Russia-- thereby removing Germany's major military enemy in the east. Yet Hitler somehow forgot to mention that in Mein Kampf.
I sometimes think that the God who created us all had a very sick sense of humor. Is there a Yiddish word for that feeling?
January 28, 2007 9:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Rosenberg seems to be itching for fights about Israel and is looking for any excuse he can find. Now it’s an article in a newspaper, tomorrow it will be Olmert and after that it will be yet another excuse.
Most experts believe that Iran is developing the bomb. There is nothing the US or anybody else can do about it. You can damage the program, you can kill many Iranians, but you cannot demolish the program or stop it. The solution now, and in the past, is to make the Iranian less eager to use bomb or share it. If the Saudis can be respected company, what cannot the Iranians be?
There is nothing one can do about the past. You cannot unkidnap the American hostages. The question is: are you itching for a fight with Iran, e.g. Mr. Rosenberg, or are you trying to avoid some fringe terror group from dropping the bomb in Tel Aviv and New York?
January 28, 2007 9:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
During the 80s and 90s I grew more suspicious of the Palestinians because they seemed implacable.
One of the biggest problems with the Israeli/Palestinian negotiations, of course, is that neither side believes that the other is acting in good faith. And, what's more, they both have sensible reasons to think that. During Oslo, for instance, the Israelis understandably didn't trust the Palestinians because there was a continued presence of terrorism and violence. And the Palestinians understandably didn't trust the Israelis because the settler population doubled during the Oslo process and not a single illegal settlement in the West Bank or Gaza was dismantled. Neither side believed that a "successful" outcome would give them what they wanted and felt they deserved. What was really necessary (but didn't happen) was for the U.S. to twist the arms of the Israelis, while the Arab states twisted the arms of the Palestinians. Both sides had to agree to stop their most indefensible forms of behavior. Neither did.
January 28, 2007 9:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Howard, all things considered, are 2000# JDAMS considered large bombs?
From the following article, the B-1B seems to be pretty versatile. From "Phoenix Risen: THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE BOEING B-1B":
"This sentiment was reinforced by the conflict in Afghanistan, where the B-IBs had another success. Although they flew only five percent of the missions, they dropped 40 percent of the weapons and 70 percent of the joint direct-attack munitions (JDAMs). The keys to the B-1B's triumph are its long range and loiter time-attributes that proved even more valuable during Operation Iraqi Freedom.
The Bone in Iraq
Flying combat missions in Operations Southern Watch and Northern Watch, the USAF has confronted Iraq for more than a dozen years. An important element of this confrontation was the 405th Air Expeditionary Wing, commanded by then Col. James M. Kowalski. A composite Wing, the 405th operated 10 B-1Bs, 10 KC-135s and two to four E-3 AWACS aircraft. In a recent interview, Brig. Gen. Kowalski said, "I had few concerns about either the aircraft or my crews. I knew we had a solid weapon with the Joint Direct Attack Munitions combination of precision and punch; our defensive systems ranked among the best in the Air Force, and our speed and maneuverability inspired confidence. Most important, we had a secret weapon-the best munitions and maintenance folks in the world." His ground crews kept the B-1Bs at an extraordinary 80-percent-in-commission rate despite their flying eight 11-hour missions a day. The 10 Bones dropped 2,159 JDAMs-43 percent of the total used in Operation Iraqi Freedom and 22 percent of all the guided weapons used in the campaign. The 213 sorties flown by the 405th AEW B-1Bs were only one percent of the total flown by coalition forces, but they took out 10 percent of the targets.
Success on this scale was possible because the B-1B was able to change its mission planning from the traditional scripted approach to a far more flexible one that operated under special instructions (SPINS) that made the best use of its long loiter time. Crews could launch with the latest intelligence and communications information, be assigned specific targets in the air and then organize ad hoc aircraft force packages as required."
http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qa3897/is_200504/ai_n13498079/print
January 28, 2007 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
See Seth, there you go appeasing Hitler again. Don't you know that Israel is facing a Holocaust? SHeesh!
January 28, 2007 9:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
I agree about the friendship thing but I am not sure how realistic it is or to what extent it could be taken advantage of.
But I've always thought a quick way to "perastroika" would be to invite such cold neighbors who could be realistically turned warm to be a member of NATO.
I thought it would have made sense to do this with the soviet union to end the cold war.
Just because a nation becomes a member of NATO doesn't mean you provide them with sensitive information or technology. It justt means they are under the protective and collaborative umbrella of NATO.
Ideally all nations would be members and the only enemy would be roque terrorist organizations (or aliens - although I don't believe in aliens, that is just to make a point.)
Of course I'm a dunce when it comes to politics. Although I'm not short on ideas on the other hand.
January 28, 2007 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Incidentally, this was later expanded into the excellent book Mindkiller.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
January 28, 2007 9:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lets not forget that supposedly anyways george bush is a fundamentalist christian. and let us assume the stereotype of fundamentalists to be people who believe NATO is evil and that a world government would be akin to the anti christ. I'm not sure why they think this since we have separation of church and state in the US. But I think it must be rooted in the same old root problem of "we are the chosen ones according to God and you are not."
At any rate, it isn't a coicindence I don't think that NATO isn't involved in the Iraq war. That only the Dubya Administration is plus the UK. "We don't need a permission slip from the united nations." And loo what this lack of permission slip has done for us.
If anyone more educated and with a higher IQ than I would like to expand on these thoughts that would probably be a good idea. : )
January 28, 2007 9:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
For those innocents who don't know about Dick Cheney's "Great Game" and Iran, I suggest the following:
http://stpeteforpeace.org/caspianarticleprint.html
Noted that this game started back in the early 1990s.
January 28, 2007 9:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
The 2000# JDAM is certainly a large blast-fragmentation bomb. It doesn't have much ground-penetrating capability, so the explosive payload is reduced and the case made much stronger to form the GBU-34/B. This is a JDAM with a BLU-116/B penetrating warhead.
Thinking about it, the B-1 can probably carry this even though my first reference didn't say so. GBU-34's, which are an interim weapon, have aerodynamics similar to the 2000#. IIRC, the penetrating bombs have about half the explosive of a regular bomb.
Larger bombs are dropped from transports. The largest (although an even larger one is supposed to be in development) GBU-43 MOAB. MOAB is officially Massive Ordnance Air Blast, but, in a nod to Saddam, it is generally called the Mother Of All Bomns.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
January 28, 2007 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
FACT: The Israeli bombing of Osirak was a FAILURE which backfired spectacularly. Dont' fall for Israeli military self-aggrandisement.
“The Osirak Fallacy” by Richard Bettes, The National Interest, no. 79 (Spring 2006).See also Institute for Public Accuracy and ArmsControlWonk
January 28, 2007 10:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Nuclear plans in chaos as Iran leader flounders -Boasts of a nuclear programme are just propaganda, say insiders, but the PR could be enough to provoke Israel into war
January 28, 2007 10:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Note how this article frames Israel as "responding" to a "provocation"...Israel should always be shown as the victim.
January 28, 2007 10:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
Actually, I should say that the current version of the game started in the early 1990s.
Actually, I seem to recall that a Jew named Sidney Reilly started the game back around 1904.
Then CIA officer Kermit Roosevelt continued the game in the 1950s when he overthrew the elected government of Mossadagh and installed the Shah on Iran's Peacock Throne.
In his memoir, Countercoup, Kermit indicates that the idea for the coup came
from the British Anglo-Iranian oil company -- nowdays know as BP. Of course, US oil companies got their cut and Iranians got --well, short rations and a visit with the Shah's SAVAK torturers if they complained.
We're not known as "The Great Satan" for nothing. That, our nuclear bombs, and Israel's nuclear bombs go some way to explaining why the Iranians don't want to sit down and sing Kumbaya.
January 28, 2007 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most experts believe that Iran is developing the bomb? Sorry, no. This is incorrect.
The IAEA hasn't found any evidence of this, and the CIA has concluded that it doesn't have such information, and ...
January 28, 2007 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Once a member of NATO, you no longer need to possess weapons of mass destruction, there is an economic benefit as well as a security benefit.
You just setup an economic alliance for NATO members. Lower barriers to trade (lower tarriffs, etc.)
So the roque nations who insist on possessing weapons of mass destruction - north korea and iran if iran chooses to make nukes, would not be allowed tot be members of NATO. With the exception that one nation - or perhaps a limited number based on who had weapons of mass destruction first - would be allowed to have nukes. (America.)
Any nuclear strike on any NATO member nation would result in a retaliatory strike by the US and/or approved NATO nuke member.
So now we've reduced the number of nukes, the number of countries with nukes, the likelihood of course of rogue organizations buying nukes through the black market.
And we have the economic incentive already in place to prevent nations from going rogue.
There would also be unofficial trade "preferences" for NATO members. Or all out trade sanctions against the rogue nations.
I just wonder why this sort of system wasn't put in place 40 years ago. I think we weren't thinking out of the box. We were in the box of the cold war.
And it seems to me the Bush Administration is without any doubt still in the cold war box.
January 28, 2007 10:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
hass.
The working paper I linked to is only briefly concerned with the Osirak operation and is focused on the technical details of prospective Israeli missions against Iran. Geopolitical considerations are discussed in the context of use of airspace, etc. Bear in mind that it was published last April so some of those particular concerns are out of date and likely to be no longer valid.
January 28, 2007 10:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
The article I linked to identifies "the Bone" aircraft as responsible for the destruction of the Baghdad restuarant that Saddam & Sons had just left
by delivering two "hard target penetrating" GBU-31's.
? Would there be critical differences in the upgraded versions and how significent is the tweaking that determines the need for a new numerical designation?
January 28, 2007 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there an acceptable number of dead Israelis that you are willing to accept rather than alienate the American Left?
What is the acceptable number of dead Israelis that you are willing to accept rather than allow the Old City to become the capital of a Palestinian state?
If you're looking for policies that result in dead Israelis, and who supports them, then you ought to be starting with the expansion of West Bank settlements. To date, it has never been Israeli or American doves who have been responsible for Israeli deaths. The Israeli hawks' vision of pushing the security perimeter outwards to the point that it requires bombing Iran is the same kind of thinking that estblished a security perimeter at the Jordan and has saddled Israel with 4 million Palestinians. Good fences make good neighbors, but not if you build them down the middle of your neighbor's yard.
"All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." - I.F. Stone
January 28, 2007 10:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just an observation: once the balloon goes up and the US takes out Iran's oil export facilities, the US will have succeeded in eliminating both of the sources of Persian Gulf oil which excluded US oil companies -- Saddam's Iraq, and Iran. Everywhere in the gulf, either US oil companies will have a cut of the business, or the flow will be cut off.
Just an observation.
"All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." - I.F. Stone
January 28, 2007 11:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes, I remember that. They vary a lot in whether they do new numbers, or A/B versions.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
January 28, 2007 11:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
This thread tangent has a, "besides THAT [the bullet caliber, weapon manufacturer, range, killing power] Mss. Lincoln, how was the play" feel to it. It seems like the color commentary to a sporting event (which I realize is an extremely crass way of expressing a deadly serious subject).
The real besides THAT in this case is more of THIS.
More times than not I read detailed and knowledgeable technical post like these and come away questioning myself why. Why do I read them? They often take me away from the thrust of the thread.
Like;
What is going on behind the scenes with the people who pull the trigger… and I don’t mean the pilots of the B1s. Why are these planes being deployed? And what does it mean relative to a further escalation?___________________________________________
“I, ..., do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic..."
January 28, 2007 11:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
How do you know that Iran’s uranium enrichment program is small? Has anyone put together an estimate on how long it will take for Iran to produce enough weaponized uranium to make one bomb, that probably all they need.
If Iran can build a bomb in the next ten years and is really not engaged in a peaceful nuclear program, the threat to U.S. is clear and while not present it’s gathering. It’s not a direct threat because I can’t imagine Iran being able to build a long-range ballistic missile capable of hitting the U.S., but our military and our oil will still be in the Middle East and within range.
You are correct that a small uranium enrichment centrifuge cascade is not a clear and present threat and certainly not worth a war with Iran. I wonder if that is really the current standard