Does PAGO make sense?
The Democrats announced that they are committing themselves to work to balance the budget. They will re introduce PAGO (Pay As You Go) which entails cutting expenditures some other place before spending more on an old or introducing a new program. They did this twice before. In each case it enabled to GOP to spend the funds saved—by recreating a deficit. There follows a personal observation on the subject, from the period that followed my service in the White House as a senior advisor.
“Shortly after Carter lost the election to Reagan and the new president was sworn in, I was surprised to receive an invitation to a White House briefing, to take place in the Old Executive Office Building. To this day, I believe it was simply an error based on some staff list the White House maintained. The briefing was conducted by Murray Weidenbaum, a professor of economics from Washington University, the incoming chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
Weidenbaum had much to say, and often did so with a keen sense of humor, but one comment stuck with me. He told the assembled group that the new administration would generate such a deficit that if the Democrats ever made it back into office, they would be unable to spend much on their favorite social programs. (Not trusting my memory, I checked with Murray, who confirmed my recollection.) The Reagan administration lived up to this promise, with a vengeance.
President Clinton had to (at least he believed he had to) abandon many of his plans in order to wipe out the Reagan deficit. He ditched his plan to Put People First, to invest great amounts of public funds in education and training, a cardinal part of his 1992 campaign. Instead, overruling liberals such as Robert Reich and Donna Shalala, siding with Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan, Clinton gave priority to eliminating the deficit. He--and the nation--were richly rewarded. Ending the deficit was a major factor in reducing interest rates which in turn helped generate a fabulous economy in the 1990s and left, at the end of his administration, a giant surplus. But, far from it being used to fulfill Clinton’s initial commitment to invest in people, it was largely consumed by the Republican administration that followed him to provide tax cuts, mainly to the super-rich. It is quite possible that when the Democrats find their way back to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Murray Weidenbaum will be on the money for a second time. Lesson for the day (or decades): Politics is a strange business that follows different rules than economic theories, doctrines of fairness, or giving dessert where it is due. Take note, those who enter these gates.”
I wrote these lines in 2002. There are included in my book My Brother’s Keeper: A Memoir and A Message (Rowman & Littlefield, 2003).
Does it make sense for the Democrats to “act responsibly” only to provide funds to be expended by the next Republican administrations on its constituencies?















I think it still does. Had Gore been elected in 2000, he might have spent the surplus well, after all. Clinton managed to fix the problem and create a nice pool of money, he just never got the chance to put it to work.
thosethingswesay.blogspot.com
January 22, 2007 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I don't know if a formal PAGO plan is the way to go, but some serious steps have to be taken to reduce the deficit. Junking some or all of the Bush tax cuts is a good place to start.
January 22, 2007 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course pay-as-you-go makes sense... so long as it is accompanied by a steep "Patriot Tax" rate increases on the top 1% of income earners, including taxing all non-primary-residence-or-family-farm capital gains over $100,000 per year at the same rate as salary incomes of the same amount would be taxed; these rate increases to remain in place until the Iraq War and the GWOT are paid for in full, and the revenues lost as a result of the Bush Administration's tax cuts for the wealthy have been recovered... in other words, until our National Debt has been returned to pre-January 20, 2001 levels.
Pay-as-you-go is a superb opportunity to erase the fiscal sins of the Bush Republicans.
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January 22, 2007 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats should not behave irresponsibly just because they believe that Republicans will behave irresponsibly the next time Republicans come to power.
January 22, 2007 12:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Democrats should not behave irresponsibly just because they believe that Republicans will behave irresponsibly the next time Republicans come to power.
January 22, 2007 12:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
A balanced budget is always in our nation’s interest.
It is a shame that we should allow any political party with the ability to create an insolvent future. Perhaps voters should have better information on the costs of governance, and that one year's tax cut may turn out to be the next generation's burden.
Which do you think informed voters would demand more: balanced books or tax cuts? I'm not sure, but politicians today are not very well suited to resist instant voter gratification.
January 22, 2007 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, it makes no sense. Our fiscal responsibility simply funds their wars and tax cuts for the super-rich. We should turn Weidenbaum's game around, by spending so much on health care, education, alternative energy, and other middle-class entitlements that there's no money left for tax cuts for the super-rich or elective wars. THEN it will be time for PAGO, when things important to us are fully funded.
January 22, 2007 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
PayGo is fine along with the willingness to raise taxes WHERE Bush-Bush-Reagan cut them. I'd like to see the ROOF off of the PAYROLL tax (FICA) and it extended to unearned income. This should NOT be accompanied with expanded benefits. Let the rich enjoy the benefit of paying for the government for awhile.
January 22, 2007 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It truly does. Not only is there the chance that a Democrat will get to work with a surplus or balanced budget, but it was a big part of restoring the public's trust in Democratic fiscal prudence. Leaving the country with a surplus is the best thing Clinton ever did for the party, and unlike the endless triangulation and yammering about the middle, this really got through to voters.
To be successful over any sustained period, Democrats have to reassure people that government can be a responsible and effective vehicle to use society's resources to solve pressing problems. The entire run of Republican power has been based on the demagoguery that government is incapable of spending money wisely. Now that the Democrats are in a position to distinguish Republican squandering and theft of tax dollars from restrained and effective government spending, they must hammer that distinction home. Nothing does that more clearly than PAYGO.
January 23, 2007 6:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
The immediate post-World War Two Republican congress converted a deficit ridden wartime budget to surpluses. In the elections of 1948, they were voted out. The Clinton inspired surpluses marked the turning point to Republican ascendency. Fiscal responsibility may be a commendable endeavor, but who will tell the people?
January 23, 2007 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink