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Please, No Repeat of '68

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Matt Stoller's latest piece, along with the netpolls, remind me of the importance of not allowing 2008 to become another 1968.

As in 1968, the differences among us (now the netroots, then the activist kids) are far less than those things we have in common.

Some of us are issue-driven. Others just want to win. But all of us want the conservative nightmare to be replaced with a progressive reality.

But look how we blew it in 1968. I was all for RFK but, in retrospect, he should not have run. Mc Carthy was in the race first, finished off LBJ and was entitled to unified support from the antiwar and progressive movement.

In stead, Bobby came in. The whole campaign became about him and, worst of all, he, not surprisingly, was murdered -- eliminating the best hope we had for the future.

But right from the start the liberal approach was wrong-headed. LBJ was a true progressive, bogged down in a war he inherited.

Kennedy, from day 1, acted as if LBJ was a usurper. Rather than simply back the man his brother chose, RFK and his crowd did everything to undermine LBJ. While LBJ was passing Civil Rights bills and the all-important Voting Rights Laws, the Kennedy people (like me) were working for the Restoration.

And LBJ became unhinged.

What if Bobby had just done his patriotic duty and supported LBJ? As a supporter, he could have given LBJ the cover to get out of Vietnam.
LBJ could have said, I'm getting out because Bobby tells me that Jack intended to withdraw in his second term. But LBJ knew that if he withdrew, Bobby would have denounced him for losing the war Jack would have won. (Bobby was pro-war through mid-'67).

Bobby let family and tribe trump the welfare of the country even though he knew that the insecure LBJ would only dig in if his legitimacy as President was challenged.

In the end we got Nixon.

And I believe it was because we put personality over policy. If we were fighting the war, we should have helped ease LBJ out of it. If he was intransigent, we should have stuck with Mc Carthy even if he was not the great man Bobby might have been. If he were serious people, we would have backed Humphrey to the hilt in the fall as if the whole country depended on it, which it did.

We played every hand wrong in 1968 and we are still paying the price.

The netroots poll shows that today we want both inspiring candidates, and to win, but, it seems, above all, to stand for something worth winning with.

The challenge is to figure out who and what that is. Who is today's McCarthy? Today's Bobby? Even today's Humphrey.

We know McCain is Nixon and like Nixon he is waiting in the wings. Fortunately, he is not as smart as Nixon was and his opportunism is even more apparent.

Still, if we blow it, he wins.

This time history better not repeat itself.


PS For you New Yorkers out there, I will remind you about how we liberals manage to destroy ourselves almost as if we have a mental illness.

1970. Bobby's seat was held by an appointed Republican, Charles Goodell, liberal and totally anti-war. The Dem was Rep. Richard Ottinger, just as anti-war but a Dem and great on every issue. The libs split. The Conservative Party candidate, James Buckley became Senator from NY.

1976, Now we can defeat Buckley. The great liberal activist Bella Abzug is running against neocon Pat Moynihan in the primary. Bella is way ahead. Ramsey Clark (from Texas!) jumps in. Bella loses to Moynihan by 10,000 votes which was less than the number of votes the hopeless Clark stole from her. A Dem wins but no Bella and no great liberal either.

1980. Republican Senator Javits runs for relection. Great liberal Congresswoman Liz Holtzman is the Dem. Javits loses Republican primary to D'Amato but liberal Republican Javits runs on the Liberal Party ticket. D'Amato wins when Javits takes 700,000 liberal votes from Holtzman who loses by a few thousand votes. D'Amato is in for 18 Godawful years.

That is just New York. I'm sure this goes on everywhere. We need to get our shit together.

No more 68's!


103 Comments

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The problem when battling the right is that our troops like to think for themselves so you have this element of randomness that the GOP has done its level best to beat out of its people. They want fanatical zealots that do only what they tell them and I think they have gotten quite a long way towards this goal. Plus we are really the big tent party, and so we have a broader range of view points ;)

Also not being around in the Kennedy era, I really cannot even comprehend what you mean by a "Restoration." I mean, intellectually I suppose but that kind of idea in politics is so foreign to me that I can't quite comprehend it.

I'm not so sure that it was that simple....

Remember the DFHippies? And the man that castigated them? The one that appealed to the "Silent Majority"? The one who promised "Peace with Honor"?

The reversal of circumstance is that Bush played the terror fear card off the bottom of the deck and against our better judgment we fell for it, and Nixon reminded the "Greatest Generation" that the dirty pinko-commie-fag-free loving-liberal hippies were going to get their daughters high on mara-hu-wana and screw them if the Democrats won the election.....women burning bras, men burning draft cards, dogs and cats living together...real Old Testament stuff.

Fear and lies are what really need to be overcome.

Alphonse ( Al ) Kada
Iranians are fighting the Americans in Iraq so they don't have to fight them on the streets of Tehran

Three issues:
1) Condescension
2) Belief that those who work in Washington DC have superior knowledge/insight/understanding
3) Belief that those who live outside Washington DC are naive, foolish, misguided, and possibly stupid: "Shut up and send us the checks. And oh yeah, do my canvassing".

sPh

Today it's pretty well-known that the Cuban Missile Crisis was resolved through a trade: the Soviet Union took their missiles out of Cuba and the United States took their Jupiter missiles out of Turkey.  Of course, this was emphatically denied by the Kennedy administration -- and LBJ didn't know about it!

It seems to me a bit facile to say that RFK's support would have totally changed things for LBJ.  True, it wasn't great for party unity that there was an organized effort to "dump" the sitting Democratic president.  Two thoughts about that, with some potential resonance today.  1) When there are only two legitimate/viable political parties, there will be some intra-party conflict.  2) Someone once said that it's better to shoot for the stars and miss than to aim for a pile of dung and succeed.  Maybe it's wannabe-naivete talking, but there's gotta be some idealism in politics.  There's just gotta.

I disagree with that history, for various reasons.  I admire RFK, think he'd have been a winning nominee and a stronger one than McCarthy, think he had a shot at the nomination and McCarthy didn't, don't hold him responsible for so many people turning against LBJ when there was a war to do that just fine, realize that McCarthy and not he came up with the idea fo a dump LBJ movement, and indeed feel that had by happenstance he lived and HHH still got the nomination, he'd have been in a position to stauch some of the disillusioned who gave up on politics after his assassination and let Nixon win. Besides, history is about more than individuals. I hope right now it's about more than Bush or Obama.

However, more to the point, there's always a sad waste in this kind of speculative rerunning of history as what if. (What if RFK had stayed home? What if Sirhan had stayed home? What if pigs flew?) It's too much like the GOP version, with "stabbed in the back" stuff. It's hard to pull off sensibly, it's a distraction from discussion of broader issues of its time and ours, and it's harder still to make convincing parallels to the present. MJR indeed seems to have given up at just that moment. I've assaulted overblown claims for the Internet myself, even though I obviously like blogs or wouldn't be reading and replying here. But shouldn't MJR have worked on the conclusions a bit more? 

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

I've just got to chime in here with the obvious extension of your point... I bashed my head against a wall in 2000 trying to convince my more-idealistic friends of just how dangerous Nader was.

"Don't play into the politics of fear," they kept telling me.

For some reason, getting the last laugh just wasn't all it was cracked up to be.

Is our idealism our weakness, or is it just a poor concept of strategy? Maybe George Soros could spring for Go boards as nativity gifts for all registered dems.

Dear MJ:

This is completely off topic, but I know of no other way to contact you directly. I've been looking at your IPF site--love it BTW--but don't see any major statements on the "Iranian threat."

AIPAC is doing a lot on this issue as you know, and I'd love to see a SANE Jewish voice on this issue. In fact, I can only surmise, but don't know, where you guys stand on this or what your assessment is.

Can you comment?

Keep up the good work.

Analysis of RFK's run seems to me wrongheaded. However, even more to the point if McCarthy was Johnson's only opponent Johnson would have been the nominee. Whether he would have beaten Nixon is not clear to me. Humphrey almost defeated Nixon as it was and he suffered from many Democrats sitting on their hands after Bobby was murdered and McCarthy was defeated for the nomination.

The real thing that has to be not repeated is holier than thou Democrats who see no difference between the parties. They gave us Nixon, Rhenquist, Watergate.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

This doesn't make much sense. What you in effect are calling for is the support of the candidate who wins the first primary and after the first primary, no one else should run in the other primaries. LBJ won the New Hampshire primary beating McCarthy 49 to 43%. It wasn't until the polls showed Johnson trailing McCarthy in the Wisconsin primary that Johnson decided not to run - Johnson didn't even campaign in the Wisconsin primary. RFK made the decision to run four days after the New Hampshire primary, a primary McCarthy had lost.

And why should any American's "patriotic duty" be to support someone regardless of whether or not he believes in his policies?

Bobby Kennedy didn't come in as Nader did and form a third party - he entered the primaries and was winning them.

When did LBJ "become unhinged?" LBJ made the decision not to run when he saw McCarthy outpolling him. The suggestion that LBJ could have withdrawn by saying "Bobby told me Jack intended to withdraw in his second term" is so ridiculous it borders on the silly. In fact, it is silly. First of all, JFK didn't manufacture a Gulf of Tonkin incident which resulted in an escalation, and secondly, JFK hadn't sent 500,000 troops to Vietnam as Johnson did. If LBJ had said anything like that, he truly would have had to have been unhinged. What sentient people would have accepted that as a serious reason to withdraw troops from Vietnam?

And the notion that RFK would not have been killed if he hadn't entered the race and had supported LBJ is like saying he wouldn't have been killed if he had left by the front door, or held the rally at the Hilton or had been six inches shorter - maybe he wouldn't have, but then maybe he would have been struck by a car crossing the street or been hit by lightening at Hyannisport.

The Hubert Humphrey nonsense isn't worth commenting on.

RFK was "not surprisingly" murdered? MLK's murder was not so surprising but RFK's?

Keep in mind that George Wallace ran as an independent that year and in 1972. While he was ideologically closer to Nixon he took almost all his votes from Humphrey, mostly in the South where racist white voters wouldn't vote for a candidate from the party of Lincoln or Humphrey because of his decades long support for civil rights.

I dunno ... this "history" seems too recent, so fresh, to be relevant (snark). Why don't you look for parallels in, say, the famous 1890 election or something?

Sheesh. You do realize, don't you, that the 1968 elections were 40 FRIGGING YEARS AGO, don't you? The vast majority of American voters weren't voting then, many not even alive for that matter.

When will you baby boomers stop acting as if your youthful political experiences inform anything and everything that happens in the United States in perpetuity? As my daughter is fond of saying ... what-EVER. Get over it. It was a different time and place, and probably as distant from our reality today as it is possible to get.

And from what I can gather from history, the Kennedys were not progressive warriors but opportunistic, family-obsessed, arrogant misogynist elitists, not unlike the Bushes, who did very little concrete for the country either as senators or presidents. And Nixon wasn't such a bad president either (look at all the progressive bills he signed, especially environmental ones). Yeah, there was that Watergate thing (which seems so quaint and minor now -- breaking into a campaign headquarters and covering it up ... probably happens all the time these days) but mostly his sin was just hating 60's liberals, which frankly doesn't seem so awful to me now either (and yes, I WAS alive in 1968).

Depends on your analysis of the JFK assassination. Bobby had said at a college appearance in the run-up to the 1968 California primary that if he was elected President he would re-open the investigation into his brother's killing. If you feel, as I do, that JFK was hit by a combo of Mafia/CIA/anti-Castro Cubans from the old Operation Mongoose crowd, it is not surprising that he was killed.

Tom

RFK waited quite a long time before cricizing LBJ. My "Clean for Gene" group was pretty mad at Bobby for not coming into the anti-war group earlier. He let us do the dirty work of forcing LBJ out. Then he came in, finally. LBJ was a disaster in foreign policy - he was as dumb as W is. RFK never should have put up with LBJ's tragic foreign policy as long as he did. It wasn't our fault that HHH was too wimpy on Vietnam (are you listening Hillary) and couldn't beat Nixon. It was Humphrey's fault.

Tom

Actually, it was 39 years ago and if I certain boy President had learned the lessons of Vietnam instead of drinking his way through Yale Americans wouldn't be dieing today in Iraq. You can learn something important and relevant from studying any time period, including the 1960's.

Tom

"Condescension"

As middle-class bloggers, we are a self-selected community. That is satisfying for us, but it means that we are part of the problem. LBJ called his social program "The War on Poverty" for a good reason. Poor whites and poor blacks have more in common with each other than they do with us. For example, we complain all the time about ignorant religious fundamentalists, and the fascism of the religious right. This is a legitimate issue for us, up to a point, but it cannot be separated from class interests. We are middle-class strivers, and our education, to the extent that it is utilitarian rather than about knowledge for its own sake, is the foundation of our class-based striving.

In 1968, upper-middle class college students insulted working class policemen by calling them "pigs." The class-consciousness that I observe today is not very different from that in principle.

That must have been one of the things that drove the working class into the Republican party. We are not really solving that problem.

That is an interesting topic and worthy of its own discussion post, but it is not the type or direction of condescension that I meant.

sPh

CO Democrat needs to read history. 1968 is relevant and, although there was no Presidential electon in 1890, the 1896 election also is worth studying (ask Karl Rove).

History counts. As for us boomers, since the cohort born between 1946 and 1964 (the baby boom) remain the largest segment of the population, you'll have to deal with us for a few more years.

In a few decades, we'll all be dead and you can celebrate. But we are taking our Beatles and Stones music with us. Manage with Justin and Snoop.

1876 election is also worth studying.

Tom

Another thing, CO Dem. Signing bills means nothing. Nixon had a Democratic Congress. He fought every progressive bill but then, with overwhelming Dem majorities, had to sign them.

He cared as much about the environment as you care about history.

Lucky you, Bev D. You obviously weren't born in 1968. I wish I was as young as you.

Sure "history counts." I just had two objections. First, I prefer to learn from old wars rather than refight them, especially if I have to waste time defending someone I admire as much as RFK. Second, I'm not seeing the parallels that MJR intends, at least not clearly enough. The obvious parallels from his story just don't amount to good lessons. Say, one shouldn't conclude that it's bad to oppose the war in Iraq because opposition to a previous war once tore the Democratic party apart. Or one shouldn't conclude that it's wrong for primary candidates now to express their opposition because someone, Edwards, already has. 

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

To Peter:
IPF limits itself to the Israeli-Palestine issue and pushing for US involvement as an honest broker.

We do not have a position on Iran although, in general, we favor negotiations in pretty much every situation before taking military action.

But we are a small organization and being even-handed on Israel-Palestine is enough work for a Jewish organization. I should add that we are a pro-Israel organization and come to our support for Palestinian rights out of the belief that without justice for the Palestinians, Israel may not survive.

But we just don't have the resources to take on the Iran issue as well.

Thanks,
MJ

I am not sure how the parallels apply. I just put them out there. I guess Hillary would be the most like LBJ, with Obama and Edwards as the insurgents.

For me, personally, the war is the main issue. I'll support the candidate who is most unambiguously against the Iraq war and is not saber rattling over Iran.

I remember 1876 well. They both sucked.

All of this analysis presumes that life is lived backwards, and that a simple formula can distill how to win. Life isn't like that. If we had been "moderate" in '68, LBJ would have won the second term. Maybe. Would he then have started withdrawal? Not likely. So the peace movement, and McCarthy, were necessary. Kennedy didn't jump earlier, why? Moderation. Caution. Party loyalty. Why did he then jump? Well, he had a chance to win; Eugene had zero chance. Sad but true. Corollary of American politics: no man who knows classical Greek will win the presidency. You can't blame Bobby for getting killed, can you? No, but you can blame HHH for remaining a conservative party loyalist for far too long: he was far behind until he came out against the war, duh, and then he made it a very close election.

If you squint at history just right, you think you can figure it out. But we don't live history, we make it, and we never actually have any sure things.

There is much to be said to studying history generally and, if your interest is in electoral politics, then there are many lessons to be learned in all elections.

There are two things that bug me about this though.

One is that you really are wasting time and energy by playing the "coulda' woulda' shoulda' game with RFK, Johnson et al. They are all dead and gone and the facts of their lives are what they are. The legacies are still being written and will be revised and edited many times over. Nevertheless, the facts are in the books.

Corollary to that is that analyzing TODAY'S electoral politicals by applying a direct comparison to 1968's people, places, issues is a mistake. There is no direct analogy. There ARE differences. Nixon is not Bush. There is no RFK or McCarthy (hopefully other energetic, charismatic leaders will emerge). Vietnam - while it has many similarities to our current "quagmire" is not directly analogous. The "War on Terrorism" is not directly (nor legally) analogous to Nixon's period of the Cold War/Vietnam.

We do need to learn the lessons of history, but getting stuck in them is almost as big as mistake as ignoring them.

1968 WAS a long time ago. And yes, I was alive and well in 1968 MJ. That was a pretty insulting comment to make to Bev D. Anyone can study history whether they were 8 or 80 at the time -- you said yourself yesterday that you were stoned most of the time didn't you?

Glad I was too young to be smoking reefer in 1968....

I was for McCarthy. Bobby Kennedy was too much involved with all the Castro assassination plots. I think MJ liked him because he's a celebrity lover.
McCarthy ran against the war. If he hadn't, no one would have.
As for Bev. I see her stuff all the time. Her Bobby is Hillary! She loves Hillary (God only knows why in that Ms. Hill stands for NOTHING and is a loser to boot) and is a true believer that politics is all about personality.
She and MJ are like Beatlemaniacs!

Agreed on Hillary. Big Panderer/Headline grabber. Loser in my book -- if not in elections -- certainly in the book of life. Who cares if she's "smart"? She's also WRONG on the issue that matters most to me: Foreign policy. She's wrong on NAFTA, she's even wrong on health care.

Those that support HRC because she's a woman need to get a grip. I would love to see a woman have a real go at it(or anyone but a white male for that matter) but not Hillary. If we're going to play identity politics (and I would actually prefer NOT to), then the woman that runs should not be one that is trying to be more macho then the men in the club. Let's have a Nancy Pelosi, pearls and grandchildren and all okay? And if a black, why Obama who is half-white AND half black -- but I notice he has a very thin nose and thin lips which speak so "articulately" (no ebonics heah!). Why not Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson? How about a great big flaming gay man? Or a Yenta even (Barbara Mikulski perhaps -- don't think she's Jewish but she's older and Eastern European right?).

Yes of course I'm being deliberately provocative, but you get the point right?

If HRC runs, she will rip the party apart in the process. In that way she WILL be like RFK.

Can we please nominate someone whose labels just say:

Progressive, Liberal, Intelligent, Diplomatic -- and sometimes even fun?

Isn't that enough?

And Nixon wasn't such a bad president either (look at all the progressive bills he signed, especially environmental ones). Yeah, there was that Watergate thing (which seems so quaint and minor now -- breaking into a campaign headquarters and covering it up ... probably happens all the time these days) but mostly his sin was just hating 60's liberals, which frankly doesn't seem so awful to me now either (and yes, I WAS alive in 1968). -- CODemocrat.
--

The above is what happens to an undernourished and uneducated person who then issues sweeping summaries of events of which they have no tangible, workable knowledge.

Pretty sad.

The challenge is to figure out who and what that is. Who is today's McCarthy? Today's Bobby? Even today's Humphrey.
---
With all respects, wrong question. So long as Dems. (or whatever you call them) focus on personalities rather than concrete, specific goals (ie. end homelessness, whatever), they will lose even when they win. Electing officials based on "personality" is like buying a car because you liked the salesman and the showroom. It is just plain stupid and self-destructive.

Selecting a Dem. because he or she "give me hope" and "inspires me" is just as brain dead as people voting for Bush because "he's the kind of guy you could sit down and have a beer with."

The seamy underbelly of Dems. and Progressives is that many of them want a monarch, a potentate, a Nice Daddy/Nice Mummy, just like Repubs. do. Self-appointed "pundits" feed this irrational, self-defeating garbage scow of faux analysis because doing issues-based reporting and writing takes work and research and enthusing about the "charisma" of Candidate X takes no effort, which allows said pundit to go home early and admire themselves in the bathroom mirror.

You are right. For me, the war and avoiding one in Iran are my top issues. It would be nice of the candidate carrying that message was charismatic too.
John Edwards?

I'm liking Edwards on a ticket together with Wes Clarke.

Not sure who should be at the top, but I'm thinking in today's electoral shallow pool, Edwards' good-looks and silver tongue will make him more "electable." His "blue collar" upbringing merged with his lawyer's training makes him popular and thoughtful. I think he could be firmly anchored and supported by Clarke's gravitas and military creds. Clarke's international administrative, diplomatic and executive experience will make them unstoppable.

Even if they are both white boyz, Edwards comes from the South and I think Clark hails from Arkansas or Illinois.

Either way, whoever the "top" turns out to be, I think they're a great potential team.

But we are taking our Beatles and Stones music with us. Manage with Justin and Snoop.

Sorry, dude. Beatles are coming to my iPod in another month.

"Turn off your mind, relax and float downstream............" 

:-) 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

"comes from the South" is now a criteria for a Democratic Party presidential candidate? I know the conventional wisdom is that Clinton won his first term because he was "from the South" but I hazard that Perot's campaign had more to do with it.

I don't see the parallels to the 1968 election in the same way. Dems lost in 1968 due to bad war. GOP will lose in 2008 due to bad war. It really is that simple.

Depends on your analysis of the JFK assassination

Or it depends on an analysis of  America's  ME foreign policy at the time. Bobby was the Senator from NY, funded by AIPAC, and who had voted for all that military build up of Israel and he was shot by a Palestinian.

Here we are almost 40 years later with the almost eerie same conditions when it comes to America being under attack due to significantly imbalanced ME foreign policy. Only now we have endured the bombing of the WTC as well as 9/11...and once again we have a Senator from NY, heavily backed by AIPAC and possibly running our President.  Maybe, that candidacy will be derailed by assassination also, for the exact same reasons as the front runner candidate was in 1968.

Sometimes I sometimes think we're approaching 1968 in terms of dissent, but the dynamics are very different. The public is rejecting conservatism and Republicanism now, not rejecting liberals and Democrats as in '68. The pendulum is swinging to the left now, compared to the swing to the right in '68 and I think it certainly will continue to do so by 2008.

This post is also a very weird view of history.
First, although LBJ supported liberal domestic legislation, he did far more than "inherit" the Vietnam war. He vastly escalated the war. Like Bush, he said he didn't want to be "the first American President to lose a war" so he poured tens of thousands of young draftees into that hellish war and wouldn't stop until the country was coming apart at the seams over it.
Secondly, I don't think the '68 loss can be blamed on liberal Democrats of any stripe. The country had been through a very traumatic period of war, assassinations, riots and discord and couldn't take it any more. The Republicans had been working hard on their machine for years and took advantage of the swing of the pendulum to the right.
In '68 I was trying to cope with the murder of King and then the murder of Bobby a few months later and much more. I was listening to automatic weapon fire outside my apartment building. The country really seemed to be coming apart. The Democratic convention turned into a police riot as leftists desperately tried to get a foot in the door of the Democratic Party. The country would have elected Rush Limbaugh in an attempt to go back to simpler times. That's my take on it, and it does often feel like a re-run now in terms of the war, although not as intense a mood in the country yet, but the people who have been running things are not liberal Democrats, they're BUSH REPUBLICANS! So we need not fear being too liberal, too divided, too outspoken. The country is craving change in our direction. Our fatal error would be to have a candidate who shrinks from the issues in an attempt to appear moderate.

It could well be like '68 if there are more people like me. How could you vote for Hillary if you oppose the war? I TOTALLY don't trust her. I figure she's going to triangulate left, pick up the nomination and then make a hard right turn.

I could well vote for a Hagel over a Hillary.

But I agree with you on the boomers. They're stuck with us for the next 50 years. After all, they're still paying for my WWII generation mother's Social Security. And she still votes!

As one of those "holier than thou Democrats', it's Democrats like you that make it easy for me to vote 3rd party. As a Minnesotan I admire HHH for many reasons, but there are 58,000 names on the Vietnam memorial because the Johnson administration made an enormous mistake. I also remember how the establishment Democrats handled young protestors in Chicago. I will never support that kind of Democratic party.

dwg,

...you said yourself yesterday that you were stoned most of the time didn't you?

You still remember stuff.  It's not like getting drunk.

Dude if your waiting for this to get all your Beatles music on your iPod I have a nice bridge I can sell you:-)

I'm really sorry to have to be the ONE who always refutes this stuff, but blaming Nader or his supporters for the Bush Administration is just a buncha hooey.

Gore won. The election was stolen. You can't blame Nader voters for doing something that didn't happen.

But again, and I'm tired of saying this, even if it were true that Nader voters put Bush in the White House, it was not only their right, it was their duty to vote for the person they believed in.

Now it's your turn. Call me naive and foolish.

I think a better historical mirror is 1952. Then, like now, you had a generally complacent electorate, a highly unpopular president, and a war no one knew exactly what to do with. There were no big issues in the country (the civil rights debate would not get into full swing for a decade or so), and people were fascinated by their TVs (a new invention then) and enjoying materialism. It's eerily similar, in fact. I just don't see a Democratic version of Eisenhower out there.

I also see parallels to 1988. That was the first year thematic sliming of a Dem candidate worked, and it's been a recurring motif for the Republicans since: ignore the issues, attack the candidate. I remember how optimistic Dems were about Dukakis and his ability to stop the changes Reagan had instituted, only to see the whole thing run into the brick wall of Willie Horton, attacks about "soft on crime," ridicule (Dukakis in the tank) and even insinuations that Dukakis was mentally unstable (another big theme for the Republicans since then: every Dem candidate is portrayed as a half-crazy liberal, just like Dukakis was). We have an opportunity to begin battling that kind of garbage this time around, or we can sit back and watch as the Republicans snuff out Democratic optimism yet again. Judging by how willing Dems are, even in this thread, to repeat the themes the Republican spinmasters feed them, I suspect '08 will be closer to '88 than '52. We just don't seem to have the brains to make it otherwise.

BTW, I also think '68 is a poor comparison. There were so many things going on in '68 besides just Vietnam -- it was a perfect storm of political and social insanity. The only thing we have going on now is the war. And we might not even have that going on in '08.

Aside from President Johnson, there have only been three other Presidents who first assumed the Presidency by succession and then attained election to a term of their own. They were Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge and Harry Truman. Roosevelt did not seek reelection to a second term in 1908, but did run in 1912 as the Bull Moose candidate when he became disenchanted with President Taft. Coolidge choose not to run for reelection in 1928, and Truman did the same in 1952. In 1968, LBJ maintained this historical constant.

Sheesh. You do realize, don't you, that the 1968 elections were 40 FRIGGING YEARS AGO, don't you? The vast majority of American voters weren't voting then, many not even alive for that matter.
Your political arithmetic is breathtakingly deficient, my obviously callow friend. Have you not heard that we Baby Boomers constitute the pig in the boa constrictor? The vast majority of American voters 'R Us, Baby Blue.

For a lot of us Boomers, 1968 was our first Presidential vote.

If you and your generation plan to take over some day, you'd better learn how to count.

This who is who analogy stuff is nonsense.  Here is who-is-who:

WHOEVER the Republicans nominate is NIXON.  Our job is to defeat him. It is NOT ABOUT the person. The Republicans have been busy rolling public policy back to the Calvin Coolidge era.  NO Republican is acceptable.

We also have some other big issues.  The Dems need a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

Just a little clarification here. 

I agree but Chuck Hagel is showing more courage challenging Bush on Iraq recently than most Democrats.

Tom

Well, we do also have the tiny matter of Bush destroying the rule of law in the USA among other things.

Tom

Chuck may be a great guy.  Maybe he will change parties.  My money is on a very dark horse, Jim Webb.

How old are you, ten?. I don't have a "Bobby" and I don't have a "Hill" either. I think we should hold the primaries and whoever thinks he/she can do a better job than what we have now should run. (Which when you think about it could be just about anyone in the phone book.)

Just do some research before you post, I don't think that's too much to ask. No, I wasn't born in 1968, but I wasn't born yesterday either. Quit deflecting, and check the facts before you write - just because you think it, it doesn't make it true.

I know what happened because I was there. Who's the Uncle Tom, now?

Do we have to call you naive and foolish?  I think I would prefer just to say, as I have, that my take on this is a bit different from yours - not that there is anything wrong with that. 

Hoppy in Sacramento

There's no analogy. Dems were in power in 1968, no sitting president. The war is the other party's responsibility.

Ironically, MJ, I was a McCarthy supporter in '68. Was my first political activity. I was 15. As I grew older, I saw some factors that made me wish I'd supported Kennedy. Kennedy was reaching blue collar voters McCarthy couldn't touch. He was the last gasp for the New Deal, without being compromised like Humphrey.

I'm disagree that Kennedy's assassination was not surprising and think you're way too kind to Johnson.

We will figure it out.  You can have the Beatles, but when the last Boomer dies, all Stones music will sound like John Cage to you whippersnappers.

WHITEROSEBUDDY IS A DISGUSTING JEW-HATING SICKO

Mr. Greenbaum is absolutely right.

I agree with Mr. Rosenberg to the extent that those in Missouri and California who hated and feared Nixon but wouldn't vote for Humphrey helped elect Nixon and extend the war until 1973. Everything else he says is rubbish.

bluebell, on January 20, 2009 make sure you stop by the West Wing and ask President McCain for your thank you note. People like you are why people like Rove sleep well at night.

I don't know. Benjamin Netenyahu was on television so fast on 9/11, I swear he must have been in the green room when the planes hit.

... plus all the people not in the phonebook.

Tom

No, folks on your side of this argument don't have to do it, they just always do.

Your take is different? Which statement do you disagree with: that the election was stolen, or that it's a citizen's duty to vote for a person they believe in?

heh heh...not waiting, but hoping for a new, digital remix, instead of the crappy 10 year old ripped CD I have... 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

I"ll throw out a different analogy to 1968: 2000. A vice president with a progressive, indeed courageous history and convictions who can't make up his mind whether to distance himself from the outgoing president, thus looking like a coward or a fool to what we'd now call the base. A Republican who campaigns as a moderate by making promises (secret plan to end the war, no nation building) he has no intention of keeping, allaying enough fears that nothing is at stake so that he gets into office by a hair. Bad things happen. The Republican then gets reelected because of a Southern strategy, because of GOP abuse of the culture wars, and because opposing the protracted war overseas is declared left-wing extremism.

John

http://www.haberarts.com/

If Edwards can bring it off, he might turn the Republican Southern Strategy upside down. He is not only appealing to his blue-collar base, he is making a strong appeal to black people. If successful, that would mark an historic change.

We have several opportunities to make history, now. We have a choice between a black candidate, a woman candidate and a candidate who can make an alliance between black people and blue-collar Southern whites (just to mention the most history-making candidates). Each of these possibilities is desirable for its own sake.

Edwards appears to be very liberal on the war, race relations and economic issues. It is possible that he can break the back of the Republican Southern Strategy. The campaigning has barely started, but at this moment I am particularly drawn to a candidate who is trying to crack the Republican Southern Strategy. It would be nice if we could be finished with that.

I don't claim to understand Edwards' constituency, so I will not attempt to give him any advice. Furthermore, I have no idea what are his chances of succeeding.

The conventional wisdom would be that he cannot make that particular alliance work. It could be argued that the past is the best predictor of the future. Furthermore, it could be argued that racism is stronger than the common economic interests of underdog blacks and whites.

On the other hand, it could be argued that racism is not inherent, and that it is primarily a product of economic fears, which have been manipulated by the economic power structure.

Edwards is a smart man, and he seems to think he knows what to do. In any case, the Edwards campaign will be very interesting.

Any comments?

As a Southerner living in the North, I can tell you that the issues between the South and the Northern dominated Democratic party are cultural, not policy.

I could well vote for a Hagel over a Hillary.

question. Do you mean that you will vote for the GOP presidential candidate or stay home if Hilary wins the nomination?

There is no question that the election was interfered with by the US Supreme Court, in an unconstitutional manner. There is also no question that enough "little" things were done to discourage Democratic voters in Florida that the outcome was changed, and that the vote count was bungled there.

My disagreement is on what a citizen's duty is. A citizen's duty is to become informed and vote when there is an election. When a citizen uses his ballot to "send a message", rather than to cast a vote that will count in determining the winner of an election, he is losing track of the whole purpose of holding elections in the first place, so, is, in my opinion misusing his voting privilege. No laws are violated by him doing that, and he has every right to vote however he wishes, for anyone he wishes to vote for. But, he is opting out of the process when he votes for someone he knows has zero chance of winning. I do respect those who disagree with me, though, because it is a somewhat gray area.

The solution to this whole difference of opinion on what voting should mean is to use the system of voting where we rank the candidates, rather than having to pick only one to vote for. That allows us to express our desires, but still participate in a meaningful way in the voting.

Hoppy in Sacramento

Could you elaborate on that? I have some impressions on that subject, but I will admit that there is a lot about life that mystifies me.

I will just add that after Dr. King's march for open housing in Chicago, where he was hit in the head with a rock and given the runaround by Chicago city officials, he concluded that one of the reasons why black poverty exists is that somebody is making money off of poor black people. If I have not summarized that quite accurately, you can look it up at the web site of the King Center. Dr. King did not talk about that very much, because he did not want to be accused of being a Communist. At any rate, there is an argument that some of the race problem is due to structural economic factors.

Back to 1968. I was away from the city during the convention, but when I returned to school in Chicago I heard all about it. Everyone I knew was on the side of the protesters and deeply disturbed by the actions of the police, so naturally my sympathies were the same.

My background is an odd mixture of border state, deep South, Canadian, farmers, planters, businessmen, preachers and artists. When I was an undergraduate in Chicago my teacher in Social Science (Soc I) was Maynard Krueger, who ran for vice president on the Socialist ticket with Norman Thomas.

It is hard to even begin to describe the cultural differences between Southerners and Northerners. 

Take a very very simple example.  In the South, "no" means "no."  In the North, I am not sure what it means.  I once had a conflict with someone who is normally a very good friend because I was asked to make an accommodation related to a work activity and I had said "no."  When asked AGAIN, I assumed that there were some sort of demands from high ranking officials or some unrevealed needs that required special considerations.  I made the accommodation, although I really did not want to.  I then learned there was nothing special behind the request.  This person was not being a pest, not trying to annoy me, not trying to get around my objectives.  She is in fact a friend.  The second request was perfectly acceptable behavior.  It would not have been (without special considerations) where I grew up.

These cultural distinctions are laced throughout interactions between Northerners and Southerners.  This is overlaid with suspicion and distrust.  I know Northerners who literally expect every law officer in the South to be Boss Hawg.  They are AFRAID FOR THEIR LIVES.  I know Southerners who expect to be assaulted within minutes of entering any city north of Washington, DC.

Northerners are perceived to be arrogant by Southerners.  As far as I can tell, Northerners are often perceived to be arrogant by other Northerners, but they are so used to it they aren't bothered by it.  Arrogance is only a minor sin in the North.  Not so in the South.  Arrogance (except under certain culturally permissible conditions) is among the top sins.  Northern "carpet bagging" arrogance is NOT culturally permissible.

Northerns are quick to assume that all Southerners are racist.  This is extraordinarily annoying to Southerners because (1) it isn't true, and (2) it gives the appearance that Northerners are unwilling to deal with problems "at home."  The bible says something about pulling the mote out of your own eye first.  Northerners should really really really learn what that means.  This does NOT mean there isn't racism in the South.  I will reserve the debate about where the worst problems are for another time.

Both Northerners and Southerners assert that the other group is inhospitable.  Southerners assert it almost uniformly about Northerners.  Northerners have a more mixed reaction about Southerners.  Northerners talk too fast, have poor manners, crowd you out on the sidewalk, double park, litter, stop in the middle of the sidewalk, walk away when you are talking to them.... Southerners talk too slow, have exaggerated ideas about manners, insist on talking to you when you have to get to an appointment, ask you about your church....

All of these cultural issues are part of why the Northern dominated Democratic party has a hard time with the South.

Yeah, I recognize all of that.

I have gone to school in Chicago and Boston. Residents of both of those cities think that New Yorkers are the ones who are really over the top. I think it may have to do with the extremes of wealth and poverty in New York. It must be hard to live in the same city with Leonard Bernstein and Donald Trump.

What was annoying to me is that Northerners, particularly New Yorkers, tended to assume that I was a pushover, and that I would have to get mad at them before they would back off.

Lenny is not all that poor.

The pushover thing is another cultural issue.  It is like the "no" issue.  You gave some signal.  I have no idea what.  Or, perhaps you simply failed to give a signal.  In NYC, every community is ethnic, so you may have not known that the ethnic characteristic of your communication.

Sorry, I didn't frame that sentence very well. The context suggests that I was referring to a contrast between Lenny and Donald, and I really was putting them in the same category.

Actually, my mentioning Lenny at all is a sign that I am getting old. He has been gone for some time, but he was an important figure from my youth.

Your snark antenna is broken.  I was being a smart ass.

That is a good point. From the standpoint of a Southerner, politeness is an absolutely essential precondition of doing anything whatsoever. I assume that this is not understood up North.

That is the trouble with the Internet. It is hard to know when people are being serious.

Courtesy is valued in the North.  What COUNTS as courtesy is very different. Again, culture is the dominant factor.

Irony is best delivered in deadpan. The direct recipient is supposed to be caught unawares. It is for the audience.

I could easily have warned you by putting an exclamation point in the comment. 

That is an interesting point. Unfortunately that is area that is one of life's mysteries to me.

I had a great aunt whose manners were so elegant it would make your head spin. Good manners are a performance art. Even in the South you do not see that kind of performance very much anymore.

I can go with that.  My great aunts were all distressed Southern Belles.  With all the Northern ghettos in Southern cities, that has all died out now.  You might find a handful in Richmond, Charleston, NO, etc., but not a one under the age of 80 would be my guess.  That kinda thing can certainly annoy the living hell out of even a Southerner when you are in a hurry and have something that MUST BE DONE.  Otherwise, it is a work of art.

Yes, my aunt would tell you every little thing she did, what kind of sandwich she ate, etc. That part was boring, but the way she did it was mesmerizing.

Gotta go now (as a Southerner, I cannot just abandon the conversation, I must announce the departure).

Take care.

Bless your hearts.

sPh

Something about MJ's post rings true. I remember spending hours trying to talk friends out of going to the Chicago Convention. Those who went were not attacking LBJ or the war, but the party. Few of them were willing, or even able, to contemplate the consequences of a Republican victory, and those who did thought Nixon really did have a "secret plan" that would get us out by the next summer. JEEESSUS!

By and large, those who went could have cared less about the Civil Rights Act or the War on Poverty, it didn't effect them. But the war did, so that's all they were considering. JEEESSUS!! MOOOSES!! BUUUDDAH!!! What a bunch of idiots!

I went to Miami to demonstrate at the Republican Convention that year.....

I'm waiting to see which party Gen Petraeus runs with. If he pulls off any improvement in Iraq I sure hope he's a Democrat!

That is the funniest thing I have seen on this site.

I do not want to imply that my female relatives would not have been respected by feminists. My maternal grandmother worked with a group that was allied with the Suffragettes, and she worked all her life to encourage young women to go on to higher education. Another of my great aunts (a different one), who was an amateur poet, worked outside the home when that was quite unusual for women. She and her husband moved to California. I have a photo of her standing in front of her husband's photography shop in San Francisco after the great quake, with a soldier standing guard.

Boy, you hung out with a different crowd than I did. McCarthy sent the word out to Philadelphia supporters not to go to Chicago because he feared violence. Those who went, went to end the war even though they knew they might get their brains bashed in.

Tom

Remembering JFK's description of DC as the city of Northern charm and Southern efficiency...

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

Hagel is the only Republican I could be tempted to vote for entirely because I believe he's the smartest candidate running when it comes to foreign policy and no neocon is going to pull the wool over his eyes. But he's not likely to be the nominee.

I will not vote for a Democrat who triangulates on this war or competes with the Republicans on who can throw away the most money on "national security". Sorry, but Democrats are going to have to come up with something a bit larger than a few cents thrown at the minimum wage to make me decide it's worth throwing out principles to vote for them.

The opinion polls are on my side now. People are sick of war and politicians who can't figure out that our real competition for jobs, for capital and in arms is China not a bunch of illiterate lunatics in the ME.

So if the polls show John McCain ahead of Al Gore by, say, 10 points in my state the day before the election, I'm required by your logic to vote Republican.

Sorry, Hoppy, but I can't respect that kind of thinking. You're heart's in the right place but it's interfering with your thought process.

Your paradigm virtually eliminates minor party candidates from the field. A "compulsory" two-party system, bouyed by support from people who think as you do, either polarizes or homogenizes unacceptably. It has already edged the Democrats so far to the right that it's getting hard to tell them from the Republicans. It may very well lead to a completely inappropriate candidate like Hillary Clinton getting the nomination.

Your idea of how to cast one's ballot always says, "My party must win this election." My idea is, "My party has to do right by me." I'd rather have my party know that I'm not buying inferior goods, so they damn well better deliver quality, or I shop elsewhere.

Will I be unhappy if McCain narrowly defeats Hillary in PA after I vote for myself or some Socialist? Yep. But I won't blame myself, I'll blame the Dems. And I'll be right. Because if I keep shifting my vote to the right, in a few years it could be somebody who looks a lot like McCain running with a (D) next to his name.

Think that's crazy? Look who PA elected in the Senate last November. Casey is anti-abortion, pro-USAPATRIOT, pro-warrentless wiretap, anti-embryonic stem cell research, anti-gay marriage, and on and on. Guess how the PA Dems got that way?

Yeah, we sure did know different types of people. The ones I knew went prepared for battle, and prepared to cause a battle if necessary. They went to destroy the Democratic party. They weren't Republicans by any means, they thought the Republican party had been destroyed by Goldwater and didn't give it much thought. So much for 60s strategy... everybody had one....

I was only laughing at sphealy's comment.  Clearly he was teasing us.

Except that he didn't want to cast too much light on his own election, he might have added to that quote "...and the honest government of a Midwestern city." 

I'm sorry I missed this cnversation, but wanted to say a few quick things.

First, in 1968, RFK had a great opportunity to say that LBJ was a usurper: remain quiet when Evelyn Lincoln said JFK was going to boot LBJ shortly before Dallas. Instead, RFK firmly denied it, getting a headline in the Post about it.

Second, McCarthy did not force LBJ out. Kennedy did. And Kennedy waited so long because he felt that the American people were rejecting LBJ, but didn't really want McCarthy. LBJ's poor showing in NH confirmed for RFK that he hadn't split the party -- LBJ had. RFK came in the race for more than two weeks before LBJ skipped out.

Third, I think Edwards is McCarthy -- he's worked the base hard and feels entitled to movement backing; Obama is RFK -- fresh and exciting; and Hillary is Humphrey -- her caution and ties to the old establishment weigh her down.

Have you ever considered the possibility that they DID destroy the Democratic party?  McGovern wasn't a realistic candidate.  Carter was probably the most upright and honest candidate in the 20th Century, but he was a fluke after Watergate and the pardon. 

But the Democrats haven't mounted a real candidate since.  We win with DLC DINOs, might as well be Republicans.

When will we get a real Democratic party back?  I am so sick of the Hillary promoters, she is the worst DINO yet.

Oh, and if McCain is Nixon, does that make Romney Romney? Giuliani is Lindsay and Tancredo's Wallace.

Gee, this is fun.

So Mary Carey is Linda Lovelace and...

I'm getting all counfused now. 

Why were there so many people referred to by their initials in the '60s?  I can't think of another period of time that featured so many combinations of three letters as people.

IMHO IDNK (In my humble opinion - I don't know).

Tom

RFK let McCarthy do the groundwork. Then he jumped on the bandwagon. I remember wondering when RFK was going to speak out. Similarly, Hillary's caution is frustrating now.

Tom

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