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Bush’s Iraq Speech: Analysis On Its Own Terms

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Let’s take the President’s speech on its own terms, but push back analytically:

“Tonight in Iraq, the armed forces of the United States are engaged in a struggle that will determine the direction of the global war on terror and our safety here at home.”

Is Iraq really the struggle that will determine the global war on terror? The argument of Iraq war opponents from the beginning was that it wasn’t. There are so many ways that this critique has been supported: the backsliding in Afghanistan; the global metastasizing of Islamist terrorism with Iraq being a main dynamic; many others as well. To the extent that the statement the President made is now true on its face about Iraq as a central front, it’s because of his policy not in spite of it.

“It is clear that we need to change our strategy in Iraq. So my national security team, military commanders and diplomats conducted a comprehensive review.”

Did they? Or did this end up as yet again as premises to be assumed, much more than propositions to be tested, exercise that posed the central policy choice in terms of the worst case for alternative strategies for genuinely changing course vs. the best case for what, “new way” labels aside, is not much more than stepped-up stay the course? Did they game out, task substantive memos, or give full analysis to a strategy along the lines of “Stabilize-Withdraw-Contain”? This actually could include some elements of the Bush plan that could help achieve a degree of stability (e.g., economic reconstruction, pressure at political reconciliation), but in the context of (a) a phased withdrawal that recognizes the limits of any military strategy in a situation that swirls together anarchy, civil war and terrorism as Iraq has come to do, and (b) accompanied by concerted diplomatic initiatives with allies and adversaries alike to seek to contain both the spread and the intensity of the conflict. I’ve yet to see a convincing critique of the Iraq Study Group’s strategy, the diplomatic as well as other elements: plenty of Administration and neo-con political potshots and straw men, which have worked all too well politically, but not serious policy analysis.

“Our past efforts to secure Baghdad failed for two principal reasons: There were not enough Iraqi and American troops to secure neighborhoods that had been cleared of terrorists and insurgents, and there were too many restrictions on the troops we did have.”

If diagnosis isn’t right, prescription won’t be either. Are these really the two principal reasons why policy has failed over these nearly four years? Right strategy, just not enough troops? So we should just dismiss all those analyses, including many done by individuals and institutions that have wanted the Iraq policy to succeed? The body of evidence and analysis points to more fundamental flaws in the Bush strategy than under-investment.

“In earlier operations, political and sectarian interference prevented Iraqi and American forces from going into neighborhoods that are home to those fueling the sectarian violence. This time, Iraqi and American forces will have a green light to enter these neighborhoods.”

So we’re taking on urban warfare. Read Tom Ricks this morning on this. Sure sounds a lot less simple and a lot more risky than just having a green light.

“And Prime Minister Maliki has pledged that political or sectarian interference will not be tolerated.”

Maliki has yet to deliver even the little we’ve pushed him to, and that he’s pledged before. Now we’re banking on his delivering in such big ways? Some say it’s because he’s unwilling; others that he’s unable. My sense is it’s even more the latter than the former, which makes this about a lot more than phone call pledges.

“Over time, we can expect to see Iraqi troops chasing down murderers, fewer brazen acts of terror, and growing trust and cooperation from Baghdad's residents.”

Again, the analytic basis for the expectation? Most of what we’ve seen has raised major questions about the identification and commitment of members of the Iraqi Army to the national institution compared to their sectarian loyalties. Mark this as a marker, and the press should press the Administration to put at least some ballpark dates around “over time”.

“To establish its authority, the Iraqi government plans to take responsibility for security in all of Iraq's provinces by November.”

Another marker, and one that the policy can be held to along the way, since there’ll need to be measurable achievements through March-May-July-September if all provinces are going to be secured by the Iraqi Army by November.

“To give every Iraqi citizen a stake in the country's economy, Iraq will pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis.”

Heard this one time and again before, back to Wolfowitz’s grand ideas, around the August 2005 Constitution, and since.

To show that it is committed to delivering a better life, the Iraqi government will spend 10 billion dollars of its own money on reconstruction and infrastructure projects that will create new jobs.”

An easy one on which Congress, journalists and NGOs can push for transparency, accountability, reporting, and measurability.

To empower local leaders, Iraqis plan to hold provincial elections later this year.”

Will they be held? And if so how will they avoid following sectarian lines that as in other societies in which elections worsened problems?

And to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation's political life, the government will reform de-Baathification laws and establish a fair process for considering amendments to Iraq's constitution.”

Here too reminders of the August 2005 constitution and the legislative elections and the various reforms that were promised to follow right after to bring moderate Sunnis and others in, but did so only partially and much later.

“Countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf States need to understand that an American defeat in Iraq would create a new sanctuary for extremists and a strategic threat to their survival.”

They get it; their question is whether supporting US policy makes this more or less likely in their view? Especially with leaders like King Abdullah of Jordan, the issue may be that the Bush policy makes that sanctuary and spread more likely. So, with them as with other critics abroad and at home, let’s not equate criticism of the Bush policy with being soft on terrorism.

“Many are concerned that the Iraqis are becoming too dependent on the United States and, therefore, our policy should focus on protecting Iraq's borders and hunting down Al Qaida. Their solution is to scale back America's efforts in Baghdad or announce the phased withdrawal of our combat forces.

"We carefully considered these proposals. And we concluded that to step back now would force a collapse of the Iraqi government, tear that country apart, and result in mass killings on an unimaginable scale.

"Such a scenario would result in our troops being forced to stay in Iraq even longer, and confront an enemy that is even more lethal. If we increase our support at this crucial moment, and help the Iraqis break the current cycle of violence, we can hasten the day our troops begin coming home.”

As with the second point made above, questioning how comprehensive and fresh-thinking their review process. This three-paragraph formulation is classic Bush: first it straw mans the alternative position; then it claims to have given careful consideration; then it gives worst case version of the straw man.

"The question is whether our new strategy will bring us closer to success.”

Yes that is the question.

“ I believe that it will.”

I don’t, and I fear for our soldiers and for our broad foreign policy interests.


114 Comments

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I have already posted my reactions to Bush's speech and Durbin's response, as a comment on Larry Johnson's post last night. Here is the link.

The speech was just more of the same old "Be afraid, be afraid, but I'll protect you because I am the world's greatest incompetent boob."

I think it's pretty clear from this speech, from the Naval moves, and from the recent change of commanders that the moral midget is going to go after Iran, come hell or high water. If he leaves Iraq he'll have a harder time justifying his planned stupidity in Iran.

It's too bad that all those people, ours and theirs, have to die for this stupid, arrogant little s.o.b. I live for the day I can see him and Cheney, Rumsfeld, WOlfowitz, Perle, and all the others waiting their turn at the gallows. (Fat chance, when we can't get the Dems to even consider impeaching B & C, even with uncontestable evidence being rubbed in their faces. I guess hangings off the table too.)

So we’re taking on urban warfare. Read Tom Ricks this morning on this. Sure sounds a lot less simple and a lot more risky than just having a green light.

I tried, but got a "page not found" from the link.  Can someone direct me to the proper one?  Thanks very much

aMike

I think your post points up the problem for Bush, today. He has been shown to be lying on so many occasions, that he can never say a thing and be trusted it is the truth. Whenever he speaks, I assume he's lying (notice, not being disingenuous). I just don't listen to him any more. It's the ultimate 'Boy cries wolf' situation.

The president reminds me of a toy TV for little kids. You turn the dial and various animals appear. No matter how you turn the dial it is always the same animals and always in the same order. Nothing changes because that option was not part of the original design.

In watching the commentary on the speech it was pathetic to see news people and politicians maintaining the charade that the president is somehow a functional human being. He is not. He is a moron and the capacity to take in information and develop new ideas is simply not there.

I read the speech, and came away with a one fundamental question:

If this is the "new strategy", what was the old one?

Then I came across this - a post at the National Review of all places - which included the following:

"it struck me as a snow job, from an administration that [...] has no clue where to go from here."

AND

The central and most glaring contradiction is the implied threat to walk away... Yoked to the ringing declaration that, of course, we can't walk away.

And that sort of crystallized it a bit further, what Bush's speech represented. Last night, we weren't looking at a lame-duck president, we were looking at the president of a lame-duck nation.

At least while we are stuck in Iraq, that is.

Two questions. If as you point out Maliki does not stand up to the sectarian militias what will we do? If as Bush claims Iraq is key to the war on terrorism then why does Maliki's behavior control ours?

The threat to Syria and Iran seems potentially a claim to go to war with them. What happens if U.S. troops move into either of these countries?

Daniel A. Greenbaum

I understand the concern about the Durbin response, but it's getting minimal coverage anyway. The press just shows pix of Reid looking upset about Bush and quotes the various presidential candidates. Of course, of the Democrats, Clinton remains the cagiest, beginning with a disclaimer even regarding opposition to the plan: "based on" the president's speech.... Oh, and Giuliani did have a response (supporting escalation, although with benchmarks), so Election Central's note there is no longer current.

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

The central and most glaring contradiction is the implied threat to walk away... Yoked to the ringing declaration that, of course, we can't walk away.
That is exactly what I heard last night as well. Besides all of the other idiocy, who the f(whoops)k wrote this speech? Sheesh!

I believe that there are reports about small numbers of U.S. troops already in Iran doing recon.

Is Iraq really the struggle that will determine the global war on terror?...To the extent that the statement the President made is now true on its face about Iraq as a central front, it’s because of his policy not in spite of it.

I'm not even sure it's at all "now true."

The new argument is, al-Qaeda needs/wants Iraq as a "safe haven."

al-Qaeda has evolved into a very decentralized organization now -- why do they need Iraq as some kind of base?

Dissent Protects Democracy.

On my way into work this morning, I heard a report that US troops had attacked the Iranian consulate in Irbil, emptied it of its personnel, and taken away papers and computers. I suspect that over the coming weeks we are going to see a gradual ratcheting up of the confrontation with Iran. Taking on the Shiite militias will inevitably create opportunities for claiming or calling attention to Iranian involvement in Iraq, and provide the pretext for escalation of the war across the Iranian border.

We'll have a draft in place before the next president takes office.

There is an Al-Qaeda of Sunni jihadist element in the insurgency, some homegrown and some foreign. But despite Bush's invocation of the Al-Qaeda threat, you'll notice that his plan last night contained few indications of what he plans to do about them. Instead more of the focus is on Baghdad and the Shiite militias.

I read the Syria and Iran comments as very dangerous, an announcement of 2 new war fronts. I am surprised that it was virtually ignored in the post speeech analysis I heard last night.

And this morning a US attack on an Iranian consulate in Irbil, 

 U.S.-led multinational forces detained six Iranians today at Tehran's diplomatic mission in the northern city of Irbil, Iraqi officials said, as President Bush accused Iran and Syria of aiding militants and promised to "interrupt" the flow of support as part of his new war strategy.

The U.S. military said it had taken six people into custody in the Irbil region but made no mention of a raid on the Iranian consulate.

.... Irbil is a city in the Kurdish-controlled north, 220 miles from Baghdad.

Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh said the government was seeking clarification from the Americans and the Iranians "about these people and what they were doing there and whether they were employees."

In Tehran, Iran's Foreign Ministry summoned the Iraqi and Swiss ambassadors and "demanded an explanation" about the incident. Switzerland represents American interests in Iran, where there is no U.S. Embassy.

Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini told state-run radio that the raid was "against a diplomatic mission" since the "presence of Iranian staffers in Irbil was legal." Hosseini claimed the action by coalition forces reflected a "continuation of pressure" on Iran, aiming to "create tension" between Iraq and its neighbors.

At the Pentagon, a senior U.S. military official said the building was not a consulate and did not have any diplomatic status. The six Iranians were taken in a "cordon-and-knock" operation, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to release the information.

Napolean declared war on Iran! I am beginning to think that this is not stubborness, on the part of the President, nor ignorance, nor bullying. I am beginning to believe the man is a meglomaniac. The airstrike in Somalia and now arrests in the Iranian embassy in Iraq. Maybe he figures if he starts a world war, we wont notice his incompetence, or maybe, God forbid, he is trolling and inciting, trying to get some wing of Al Qaeda to strike in the US and prove him right. Nothing he does now will suprise me.

Good catch.

J. McCutchen


Of course it makes no sense as a strategy to stabilize Iraq. Safe bet it will accomplish precisely the opposite. Not about Iraq. About dividing the Shia so and buying time to bomb Iran.

They don't. But they do laugh as we send more Americans over to be killed - which fits in with Bin Laden's plan. Read The Looming Tower (if you haven't already) for confirmation.

Tom

That's a definite. I believe Seymour Hersh is the one who reported that.

Tom

Well, I'm against capital punishment so I'll settle for life imprisonment - otherwise I'm with you.

Tom

Resign or be impeached and convicted. Go on medical leave. Just get out of the White House. Take Cheney with you. Please, before we all go down the tubes.

Tom

Tom

Tom

Maybe Bush thinks if we kill enough people, mostly ones that were guilty of nothing but wanting to live their lives, we will "win".

Bush, the bringer of death, wants more death.  By God and in the name of the Almighty more death is what the world will get!!!  Screw it...Kill 'em all you evil bastard!!!

Dan

According to an email from Stratfor this entire escalation is aimed at Iran. Their view is Sadr would need to crushed in order to bring calm to Iraq, and that 20,000 troops aren't enough to do that.

However, the Naval ships to the Gulf and the leaking of a number of statements from Israel as to their willingness to both go it alone and to use tactical nuclear weapons against Iran are all part of a design to get Iran to undercut Sadr and to come to the bargining table.

This seems way too cleaver for Bush. Even if this is the plan it is not at all clear that this will ever work but this is an idea that does not require for the "surge" to work militarily within Iraq.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

"cleaver" - freudian slip - Bush probably would like to use a meat cleaver as part of his foreign policy.

Tom

Well, for one thing, you made me [realize I forgot] about my own post! What killing Zarqawi did was help turn the face of al-Qaeda from mostly foreign-influenced, to a more "Iraqi" organization (with growing support).

So, in that respect, "al Qaeda" does have much to do with Iraq, but it's increasingly tied to the "insurgency." (The point of the post to which I linked is really all this is much more complex than most realize, certainly the Prez.)

My question/comment on this thread, and I should have been more clear, was related to the "bin Laden al-Qaeda," which has certainly grown beyond needing a central base of operations really anywhere, or even needing bin Laden.

Dissent Protects Democracy.


Bush slipped in a suggestion that our soldiers “haven’t been allowed to win”, aka “how the liberals cost us the V.N. war”, and said that the rules of engagement are changing.

He talked about many casualties on both sides.

He apparently will concentrate the buildup in Baghdad so it is somewhat bigger there than considering the percentage increase overall might suggest.

His newly appointed commander is said to be quite aggressive.

Something is going on in the Iranian Embassy situation.

Many have predicted that after we leave the side that is most brutal will finally take over in Iraq. Bush might think that if that’s what it takes, well, OK, bring it on.

I think Bush would have no qualms about ordering our troops to go Roman, as some describe it, on Iraq. That might be what is about to happen.

The added carrier group might just be to warn the Iranians to stay out of it.

Time to start cranking out the medals, most of them will need to be purple.

I think what no has discussed, and for good reason, is the intangibles. Do the common citizens of Iraq feel more liberated now that Saddam is actually dead? Will there be a more free flowing source of credible information as to the whereabouts of the ring leaders, recuiters and terrorist? Does the same hold true for those that are now in control of the government there?

I think the military build up, and clean sweep using new 'credible' information will spell victory for our cause, and Iraq's future.

The main goal was to take oil money out of the hands of tyrants and terrorist. The Iraqi people now believe the tyrant is gone, and with the correct amount of propaganda, with help erraticate the terrorists.

Whether or not this represents a direct attack upon Iran, this represents a bigger assault upon sovereignty...of Iraq. By unilaterally moving against a diplomatic mission of a foreign government, the U.S. has just interfered with the sovereign right of the Iraqi government to conduct its own foreign policy. The U.S. military is trying to claim that the offices it raided were not an officially recognized mission, consular or otherwise, but that is not for the U.S. to decide or recognize. It seems the Maliki government is likewise shocked at the move, which could spell the beginning of the end of cooperation between Bagdhad and Washington. I don't know if Bush or his generals are trying to provoke a war between the U.S. and Iran, but I guarantee that more than a few Iraqis will read it as trying to provoke a war between Iran and Iraq.

Hmm, seizing documents and computers, possibly in violation of established law? Hey, it worked so well in this country for the NSA, why not try it in Irbil?

John 

http://www.haberarts.com/

Or is it Cleaver, as in Beaver Cleaver?

He isn't going anywhere Tom...too many people he needs to kill.  And even if impeached and convicted he will get John Yoo to write a position paper that in time of war a president can't be removed.

The American people spoke clearly in November and it is just as clear the president doesn't give a rat's ass what the American people think.  Who is going to stop him?  I don't know if anyone can.  Especially since there so many Iranian people God wants him to kill next...

“Over time, we can expect to see Iraqi troops chasing down murderers, fewer brazen acts of terror, and growing trust and cooperation from Baghdad's residents.”
I think this statement brushes against something fundamental. In a democracy, troops do not chase down murderers. Police do, and chasing them down is the last (and easiest) step of a long, difficult process. The hard part is figuring out who the murderers are, and police forces only develop those investigative skills in democracies where people have rights.So the Iraqis need training all right. They need to be trained to believe in individual rights, in a country where they've never existed, where the occupying Army doesn't believe in them either, and everything about the new strategy suggests that the Army is about to respect rights less, not more.The strategy ammounts to more troops doing more of what they should be doing the opposite.

I  am confused. I thought that Sadr was one of the least likely of the Shite groups to be influeced by Iran.

Your call for a hannging should get you tried for treason. And then we will see a hanging. Follow the money trail of Iraqi oil money. Tell me there was an alternative with everything that happened, and would have happened.

Were there errors made once we were there? Perhaps, but that does not warrant the hanging of the men in charge of the most powerful nation in the world. Nor does it change the fact that a victory FOR the Iraqi people is the only way to complete ensure our safety from the terrorist of that region.

Many posters have also pointed to the Iran/Syria portion of the speech as alarming yet not one of the contributors to TPM Cafe has seem fit to mention it. Nor have they discussed the possibilities/consequences of military action against those countries.I find that odd as this elephant has the potential to morph into a wooly mammoth on a rampage.

During MSNBC's post-speech coverage, both Matthews and Olbermann discussed it with Brian Williams and Tim Russert:

"OLBERMANN: Brian, within the realm of the rules set down in your briefing with the president today, did the subject of Iran and Syria, which sort of sprung out of the middle of that speech, in a speech that was ostensibly about what to do about the situation in Iraq and whether or not less or more was the better option, was that a surprise to you, or did you hear about that earlier today?

WILLIAMS: No, it came up, and on more than one occasion. And, again, this tour of the world was centered mostly in this one region.

Perhaps the most chilling thing the president said—he indicated that those who are asking for a kind of wholesale withdrawal from Iraq would, when we all got to our eighties or nineties, look back and say, “Well, that President Bush, you know, he was right.” And the president‘s indication, his inference was this, that an entire region would blow up from the inside, the core being Iraq, from the inside out.

And this was a kind of rare reassessment of his position. Every indication was given to us that there‘s no insulation, there‘s no delusional thinking going on—again, I‘m repeating their position—that the president went into tonight‘s speech clearly aware that, when he looks around for friends and allies, he sees very few individuals.

He expressed to us at one point his frustration that those expressing no position on the conflict in Iraq don‘t get called out for it. He expressed his frustration that others are free to say whatever they wish and repeated the constraints he‘s under as head of the free world.

So, yes, that part of the world came up in several different times and in different contexts.

OLBERMANN: Tim, let me follow up with you about Iran.

RUSSERT: Yes, Keith, can I add something on that?

OLBERMANN: Please, yes.

RUSSERT: Might be helpful, yes. In the discussion with his senior advisers, with the president, again, something I took away, that it‘s the president‘s thinking that he will not sit down with people that he refers to as tyrants until he has, quote, “leverage”...

WILLIAMS: Right.

RUSSERT: ... suggesting that he has to win the war in Iraq or secure Iraq, and then he doesn‘t have to go to Syria and Iran and, quote, “ask for anything.” That‘s the way he looks at this.

Secondly, there‘s a strong sense in the upper echelon of the White House that Iran is going to surface relatively quickly as a major issue in the country and the world in a very acute way. And a prediction that, in 2008, candidates of both parties will have, as a fundamental campaign promise or premise, a policy to deal with Iran and not let it go nuclear. That‘s how significant Iran was today.

OLBERMANN: But, as you pointed out, there was a finiteness put to the

open-ended policy about Iraq that this government has propagated for the

last four or five years. But did we, at the same time, see in the region -

it‘s no longer open-ended in Iran—or no longer open-ended in Iraq, but it is now open-ended, perhaps, in the region, in Iran. We may be closing down this shop, but moving it next door?

RUSSERT: Terrific question, because, in fact, if Maliki and Iraq is not able to secure and stabilize his country, and it erupts into wholesale civil war, and spills over into Turkey, and spills over into Iran, and becomes a regional conflict, what then is the United States‘ position? And does that become a new front on the war on terror?

That is something that the president will not discuss. He said, “I‘m not going to Plan B, because if I go to Plan B, I‘ll have suggested that Plan A hasn‘t worked.” But it is something that must be on the minds of everyone tonight listening carefully to the president.

MATTHEWS: Let me ask you, gentlemen, starting with Brian, the president did make that allowance tonight that mistakes have been made, and I‘m sure it will be a headline in most of the newspapers, especially the unfriendly newspapers, tomorrow.

But was that a tactical or an implementing mistake? Did he admit or offer any kind of guidance about his thinking about the initial decision to go to Iraq, the forward-leaning, preemptive approach he‘s taken towards the Middle East generally, Brian?

WILLIAMS: The tone, Chris, of this talk, and two of the last times I‘ve been in private confines with this president, was this, and this calls for a bit of interpretation on my part. Tim and I had the same conversation earlier today.

If you knew what we knew, if you saw the intel that is our daily bread that we dealt with on a daily basis, dot, dot, dot, that would go on to explain so much of it. And the president was clear on this.

And when I asked him at the end about something that referenced a large mistake, we were all kind of wrapping it up, and it occurred to me to ask him, “Did you see the videotape of Saddam‘s hanging?” He said, “Yes, I did. A member of my staff showed it to me.”

Before I could get out a follow-up, where does it rank in terms of the mistakes of this conflict, he said it ranks right below in importance Abu Ghraib, then went on to mention Haditha, which, in his view, was very damaging.

So this was kind of an attempt at a realpolitik for this White House, warts and all, recitation of what has preceded tonight, as well as what the future holds, as they see it.

MATTHEWS: Well, gentlemen, thank you very much.

RUSSERT: Chris, in terms of...

MATTHEWS: Go ahead, Tim.

RUSSERT: Chris, in terms of Iraq and any doubts now looking back, as I was listening to the president and talking about the safe haven for terrorists and safe haven for Al Qaeda, similar to Afghanistan, my mind racing, saying, “Well, if we hadn‘t gone to war, that wouldn‘t be the case. Saddam would be there that many think is a buffer to Iran.”

He suddenly said, And by the way, yes, I‘m glad Saddam is gone, because if he was still there, he and Iran would be in a race to acquire a nuclear bomb. And if we didn‘t stop him, Iran would be going to Pakistan or to China and things would be much worse.

That is the way he sees the world. His rationale, he believes, for going into Iraq still was one that was sound.

MATTHEWS: And it could be the rationale for going into Iran at some point.

RUSSERT: It‘s going to be very interesting to watch that issue. And we have to cover it very, very carefully and very exhaustively."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16578298/

The transcript ends at this point, curiously editing out Matthew's challenge to journalists to focus on the Iran/Syria aspects of the speech in their next day coverage.

I'm against capital punishment too. But I regard this case as a mercy killing. Hanging these people would be a mercy on the world.

But I would settle for locking them up for life in Abu Ghraib, staffed completely by Iraqi war victims.

Errors? Errors!? You've apparently been hiding under a rock with Bush so you don't get contaminated by facts. You need to unwrap the flag from your head so you can see the real world instead of that ideological, hero-worshipping fog you apparently live in. Yeah, there were alternatives. Your scummy little hero wasn't interested in them. Maybe you need to listen to somebody besides Hannity, Coulter, and Limbaugh and read something that isn't from Regnery Publishing.

As for 'the most powerful nation in the world', how about the most pathetic nation in the world for the last six years? Any nation that behaves the way this country has under Bush isn't powerful - it's weak, it's sick, and it's pathetic. The guy waving the biggest gun around the room isn't the most powerful guy. He's the most scared, and usually the most inadequate and incompetent.

As for victory for the Iraqi people, sure, let's just kill another half million or so, and don't forget to include the women and children. That's going to make them feel really grateful and me feel really safe. Yah sure you betcha.

As for treason, there's a much better case to be made against the neocons and Bush for that, I'm sure. Nobody has done more to bring this country down than they have. But we don't need to get after them for that. War crimes will be just fine. Hundreds of thousands of people dead to satisfy that scrimy, lying little scumbag's ego, yeah, that deserves a rope around his neck, him and the rest of them.

Robin Wright [on Charlie Rose after the speech] addressed the Iran/Syria portion of the speech as part of the the impact in the region. I hope she does more analysis in coming days in the Post.

Josh - how about a guest who can speak to what this may mean, for military and foreign policy?

To envision the geography and demographics of Baghdad military operations check out the colored map in the linked Economist article. The map shows neighborhoods as mainly Sunni, mainly Shia, turning Sunni and turning Shia.

An interesting note about what has helped in the past and which is not true in Baghdad:

These tactics have had success in some areas, particularly rural towns where American forces can monitor access routes and where tribal chiefs know what is happening.

Analysis of Syria and Iran from Steve Clemons:

Did the President Declare "Secret War" Against Syria and Iran?

Washington intelligence, military and foreign policy circles are abuzz today with speculation that the President, yesterday or in recent days, sent a secret Executive Order to the Secretary of Defense and to the Director of the CIA to launch military operations against Syria and Iran.

The President may have started a new secret, informal war against Syria and Iran without the consent of Congress or any broad discussion with the country.

.... Some are suggesting that the Consulate raid may have been designed to try and prompt a military response from Iran -- to generate a casus belli for further American action.

....Bush may really have pushed the escalation pedal more than any of us realize.

Who's behind the Iran and Syria part of the speech, per Andrew Sullivan:

I have a feeling that this is less a Rove speech than a Cheney speech. I don't believe Cheney thinks this anemic gesture is a game-changer. Even he hasn't become that unhinged. So what else can it mean?

My gut tells me that this speech was, in fact, a serious military warning to Syria and Iran. This president may have in mind a future escalation far greater and more explosive than anything we're doing in Baghdad. The real reason we're not withdrawing is that we are keeping our options open for a wider war. And the president, as always, is not being honest about his real intentions.

Guess who taught John Yoo american history in 7th grade? Me! Where, oh where, did I go wrong?

Tom

I hate to post so much text, but in this case I'm going whole hog as the embargoed conversation was between John Bolton and a "small group of supporters" (AIPAC and the delightfully dumb Pammy from Atlas Shrugs).

Pammy was informed by AIPAC's NY office that the conversation was off the record after she had posted her version of a transcript.
She subsequently removed it but for now it's still in googles' cache.

Clemons mentions it on his blog and it's a real eye opener for the insider's look at how we use the UN and hints of future planning re Iran and Hezbollah. (Negroponte mentioned them today warning that they may seek to mobilize against us if they feel we are targeting them. One of Bush's "networks"?)

I've added the "B"s to help clarify what Pammy ascribes to Bolton and "P"s to indicate her contributions:

"I have to say because I am a private citizen and a free man again - these are my personal views now. These sanctions resolutions are very disappointing." John Bolton 1/5/07

P. John Bolton spoke with a small group today and I was fortunate to be among them. He discussed the full range of issues confronting Americans and issues of keen interest to the Atlas reader.

Ambassador Bolton spoke first of the new UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon. Apparently Moon is an unusual individual in that most of his diplomatic career he has been involved with the United States. He has spent a good amount of time in here through his diplomatic career, therefore it's a safe bet that Ban will certainly think/act positively towards us. His long professional association has been directed at having a good US/South Korean relationship.

The politics that lead to his suggestion were that it was "Asia's turn." (although this was not to the US way of thinking.) How ver he got there, Bolton thought of all the Asian names put forward that he was the best of the candidates. So there is some small hope eh?

Ambassador Bolton's remarks follow in italics. Money quote on Moon or more accurately Kofi?

B. 'I hope that he, more likely than the rest of them, avoids the temptation of thinking that now that he's Secretary General that he is G-d's gift to humanity. It's s a problem in New York that some secretary generals' have had. And I'm hoping Ban Ki Moon will be immune to it.

Picking a Secretary General is a lot like nominating someone to the Supreme Court. You can think you have a pretty good idea of the kind of person he is going to be and the kind of job he is going to do but once they become Secretary General they're in a different position and a lot of predictions have been wrong in the past.'

P. He goes on to list number of positive and negative indications in the early days of Ban's term. Listen to the audio below in case I don't tracribe it all.
On Ban's recent comments that he thinks the "single most important problem he wants to look at is the Israeli/Palestinian question" (I blogged on it somewhat unforgivinglyhere.) It's not something that is in Ban's dominion...........

B. 'As Secretary General he has a role in the quartet which is probably something we should not have set up to begin with. But it's there. I think what he is reflecting in that comment is the prevailing conventional wisdom at the UN. That gee if only we could solve the Israeli/ Palestinian conflict and solve in it in a particular way than every other problem in the Middle East would disappear . Now that of course is ridiculous and while I am unhappy about the problem I would not necessarily read it as a reflection of long and deep thought on the Middle East. I think it is passing on what he is hearing in briefings ....It's something we need to work on and try to turn around.'

P. Bolton was encouraged by something Ban said in respect to Saddam Hussein and developments in Iraq in recent days. When Ban was asked about Saddam's execution;

B. 'When asked about the execution of Saddam Hussein he said, well this is basically a matter of decision for each member state. That's a dramatic change from his predecessor who opined on every moral issue that came his way. To me this is not a question of whether you favor the death penalty or oppose the death penalty this is a question of the proper role of United Nations and more particularly the proper role of the Secretary General. I think Ban Ki Moon is right. It is a decision for each government, each UN member whether they favor the death penalty or don't.'

[..]

B. 'I have no doubt if Kofi Annan was still the Secretary General he would have criticized the Iraqis for opposing the death penalty and given a little speech on the international rule of law and so on and so forth. I thought this was a very positive sign..... because of the recognition it expresses about his proper role and the role of the UN. He is the Secretary General. He should be a servant of the member states. It's an intergovernmental organization. We tell the Secretary what to do and the Secretary should then carry it out. They're not some independent decision making authority with their own legitimacy and power.'

P. Bolton then goes on to describe key appointments that Ban is making and what they indicate.
On Iran and the sanctions;

B. 'I have to say because I am a private citizen and a free man again - these are my personal views now. These sanctions resolutions are very disappointing. It is not as tough as I would have liked to have seen it. In many respects the Russians did an outstanding job from their point of view in protecting Iran in narrowing the scope of the sanctions in limiting the effectiveness of many of the things that we wanted to try and do to prevent the Iranians from continuing to make progress on their nuclear ballistic missile programs.

I think the Iranian reaction to the sanctions resolution has been very telling in that respect. Although they've passed a resolution in Parliament to reevaluate their relationship with the IAEA they have not rejected the sanctions resolution. They have not done anything more dramatic. such as withdrawn from the non proliferation treaty or throwing out inspectors of the IAEA which I had hoped they would do ---that that kind of reaction would produce the counter reaction which would be more beneficial to us. So I think their very cautious, the Iranian's cautious reaction so far shows that they're not terribly worried by this sanctions resolution and that the Russians have counseled them that they actually came away better than might have been expected and therefore their reaction needs to be low key.

I think it needs to play out a little more. But if in fact that remains the Iranian reaction then I think we are going to confront very quickly the fact that this resolution is not it going to slow them down or stop them in their continuing pursuit of a nuclear weapons capability That is is discouraging obviously but something that is going to require a lot of attention and its going to have to compete with the obvious priority that will be given to Iraq here over the next several weeks. It's obviously something the Iranians will place close attention ..what we do in Iraq and that could have an impact on them as well if the President moves in the direction that is looks like he is moving in -- to increase American forces in order to more to suppress the terrorist activity that is being carried out Iraq.'

P.The continuing problem is Lebanon ...............

B. 'The continuing problem of Lebanon. Although it's been quiet there I don't think there is been any change in the intention of then Iranians and the Syrians acting through Hezbollah to bring down the Democratic government. I am not quite sure I can fully explain why the relative level of quiet. There may be some maneuvering going on. But this is something that even though it has not been terribly active, not been in the news, I don't think we can turn our attention away from .......because the strategic priority for of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah to take out the Siniora government remains very high. We will see more activity on that front in the very near future.'

P. What Bolton is very worried about:

B. 'What we were seeing in the months coming to the end of last year was an increased willingness of part of the Arab league and many other states to use the General Assembly as a forum to attack Israel when they were faced with American vetoes of resolutions condemning Israel - they took their case to the General Assembly where there is no veto by the US or other permanent members of the Security Council and there is a guaranteed anti-America Anti-Israeli majority. Whether there is a trend that is going to grow we can't tell. But I am very worried about it. And I am worried that because of their frustration with our ability to stop these harmful efforts in the Security Council that the level of activity which could be quite injurious in the General Assembly could increase. It's something we all need to keep our eyes on in the months ahead.'

P. I asked the first question concerning the continuing Islamization of the UN and our ability to contain if not stop it. The Organization of Islamic countries is a bloc. It's more than a religion, it's a political project. If there was a Conference of Christian countries there would be hell to pay. Can it be stopped?

B. 'It's a very good question. The UN for many years has relied principally a series of regional groups to aggregate their preferences and make their voices louder. You have a number of anomalies that relate to the Middle Est that are not found elsewhere. You have not only the Arab League as a regional group but the OIC is which obviously broader than the Arab League but whose policies on the Middle East are functionally the same if not more problematic in many respects. I think this is part of the institutional bias against Israel thats locked into the UN. It's a very serious problem because many of these countries have enormous problems of their own that ought to be the subject for example of human rights scrutiny for the abuses of human rights that perpetrate on the own people are able to use the power that they accumulate by being part of these groups to single out Israel and put Israel and the United S tates continually on the defensive responding to their initiatives and not being able to make progress on things we prefer to do. This is an enormous problem and I'm glad you pointed it out. It may sound , I don't know what the New York analog of being inside the Beltway's but it has much more profound implications than just internal UN debate. This is something that provides these countries with a forum, with a stage where they can magnify their opinions in a very significant way.'

P. Might I note here that every subsequent question was proceeded by thanking the Ambassador profusely ("from the bottom of my heart") for his service. I am telling you - he is all that and a bag of chips. It was moving.
The following question asked about additions to the Security Council.

B. 'On January the 1st, five new non permanent members came on the Security Council and that means we are going to have a different council and in some respects a much more difficult environment on Middle East.'

P. The two that are quite significant are Tanzania, being replaced by South Africa who is very close to the non aligned nations and the other important change is Japan being replaced by another Muslim country, in fact the largest Muslim country, Indonesia.

B. 'These shifts are going to make it more difficult and more challenging in the next two years.'

P. Much discussionfrom the mext question. Whyn not leave the UN once and for all and create a new power base that would have more of an effect and match our requirements. Bolton all but admitted the UN was, after countless attempts, not reformable despite his herculean efforts and those that came before him (He didn't say Hercules, I did.) Even incremental reform is next to impossible.
He does suggest;

B. ".....looking to competitors. There are a lot of ways to solve international problems. There are a lot of organizations. There are alternatives to the UN now. There might well be other alternatives such as the Caucus of Democracy ideas. We believe pretty strongly in our country in the values and the competition in the marketplace and I think increased competition in the market for international problem solving and it might be good for the UN.'

P. The best alternative, IMAO, is here. Next query was on how closely the UN had been monitoring the agreements on Lebanese Israeli border and in the event of violation, what is being done to enforce it (resolution 1701);

B. 'I have to say I am going to give you a pretty discouraging answer on that point. I think that the enhanced UNIFIL which was agreed to with a lot of fanfare as past of resolution 1701 has not been successful in fully accomplishing the mission that we wanted to give to it. There's no doubt Syria and Iran have very substantially resupplied rearmed Hezb'Allah. The UNIFIL people have done essentially nothing about it. Those shipments across the Lebanese Syrian border have been reported by the UN itself not something that comes just from the United States.

It could be we are coming to a day of reckoning here on resolution 1701 and whether the cessation of hostilities that was established between Hezb'Allah and Israel is going to remain acceptable.

I would hope the United States in the near future begins to take the next step that we made a conscious decision not to make in 1701 and that is disarming Hezb'Allah.

The unspoken premise of 1701 was first you stop them from getting external assistance by imposing an arms embargo but then the next step is to disarm Hezb'allah and we have not done anything on that. We are at the point , we have got to move to that second step.'

P. Next questioner gave a most outstanding tribute (evoking Churchill) to Mr. B, listen to it.
He asked what Bolton thought of his potential replacement Zalmay Khalilzad. Bolton spoke quite well of him. Very bright, dedicated doing hard time on two of the toughest, dangerous assignments the President has asked anyone to pursue and he has given all too personally to serve the United States. Quite honorable on his part.

Bolton has never talked with him on Middle East issues so he has no sense of where he will come out on that. If he does in fact turn out to be the nominee, he will support him in every way he can in the transition, at whatever length of time that person chooses, and will consult for as long as that person needs.

B. 'I hope all of you, whomever my successor is will be in touch with him, talk to him about the issues.I t's very important. We do not have foreign policy in the United States made only in the State department. We have a populist kind of foreign policy making style I's very important to be in touch.................'
http://tinyurl.com/ycvfj6

Seriously???

You mean, we have YOU to blame for all this?

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Will there be a more free flowing source of credible information as to the whereabouts of the ring leaders, recuiters and terrorist? ...The Iraqi people now believe the tyrant is gone, and with the correct amount of propaganda, with help erraticate the terrorists.

You understand that the "terrorists" make up a small fraction of what's going on in Iraq, no? And that Saddam is now a martyr in the eyes of many of Iraqis?

Aren't you really projecting your hopes and dreams about Iraq more than reflecting the reality on the ground there?

Not to be all psychological and all...

Dissent Protects Democracy.

I don't remember teaching John that the executive was a king - actually, we explained how the Constitution was set up to prevent the President from becoming a king. I guess he was absent that day.

Tom

I suppose the deadline for changing his grade has passed.  :-) 

aMike

Libertine - fyi.  The Red Sox have a new fan in Baghdad, the ambassador.

A Red Sox fanatic, [Ryan] Crocker favors heavy metal and hard-rock jam groups, including Iron Maiden and Black Crowes, colleagues say.

Personally he sounds interesting:

Crocker is also an unassuming diplomat in a profession known for its dapper suits and fancy dress.

He drove a pickup truck in Washington, and Crocker coined the term "no socks required" to describe attire at parties he and his wife host.

I wouldn't take it too hard Tom...some people are just beyond help, lol. ;)

The love of RSN trumps all...including political ideology, lol.  And now we have a Baghdad chapter. ;)

Interesting (and good imo) taste in music too Irish...this guy sounds alright for a republican. :-P 

 

 

Lord, lord, lord... I haven't seen so much wishful thinking packed into a post this short in a long time.

Why anyone would think that Saddam was still relevant is beyond me.

Mr. Jentleson's whole contrarian opinion on the speech seems to be built on the idea that using force against Radicals in the middle east should be avoided because it only makes them mad. His argument implies that if we just stayed out of the middle east after 9/11 the middle east would get bored and go back to their peaceful lives of croquet and sunday picnics.

There are many very good reasons why we should have invaded going back as far as the Ohio State foreign policy sales pitch in 1998 and even back to 1990, but this is a goofy argument on its face.

If in Iraq, the number of Al Qaeda or other terrorist groups that previously wanted us all dead has doubled, tripled or exploded by a factor of 10,000 (pick a number) by drawing them in like moths to a flame or even by increased recruitment, doesn't that make Iraq a better "Killing zone" to eliminate Al Qaeda members. Don't we want to kill anyone that lives by the philosophy of Al-Qaeda. If they are scattered in every little alley way around the world and now they are all gathered up in a clump, doesn't that make for a good way to kill them. This is Sun tzu 101.

And if his old cold war argument is that we will convince mild mannered, kite-flying, peace loving, young Arab men to become sword wielding beheaders in the name of OBL, then that one is bogus too. If our pursuit of Justice and OBL's pitch for Justice are in competition and someone in Iraq decides to choose a philosophy of Beheadings and Genocidal Global Jihad in the name of a Worldwide Caliphate, then once they put their kites down and cut off someone's head, we kill them too. How complex is this?

I never heard anyone during WWII lament that we drew too many of the enemy into a single area and increased their density per square mile. That is not a bad thing. It is a good thing cause then we can destroy them. Al Qaeda is our enemy. Thats what we are supposed to do, right?

The cold war argument that "war is ALWAYS wrong" because it makes people mad at us and decisiveness in the use of force should always be avoided in lieu of wishy washy vascilating is the whole reason why these Monsters think they can take us on.

If invading has made an efficient kill zone for us to kill as many Al-qaeda as is necessary to neutralize the threat to our families, then the "making them angry" line of thinking is an argument for invasion, not against.

Wow. You managed to avoid addressing a single substantive point in the original post in order to attack a perspective made of straw. Congrats. My first "Troll".

TJ has also already accused another TPMCafe member of "supporting the terrorists."

Class act. 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

TJ -

Consider reading about the subject of who joins and why. What passes for conventional wisdom is less than wise. 

This cscs Foreign Policy table thread deals with the subject and in particular a Geo. Packer article.  cscs' blog has some additional highlights.

"A" for effort, irish... 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Apropos, from Packer's piece:

Terms like “totalitarianism” and “Islamofascism,” she said, which stir the American historical memory, mislead policymakers into greatly increasing the number of our enemies and coming up with wrongheaded strategies against them. “That’s not what the insurgents call themselves,” she said. “If you can’t call something by its name—if you can’t say, ‘This is what this phenomenon is, it has structure, meaning, agency’—how can you ever fight it?” In other words, even if we think that a jihadi in Yemen has ideas similar to those of an Islamist in Java, we have to approach them in discrete ways, both to prevent them from becoming a unified movement and because their particular political yearnings are different.

Dissent Protects Democracy.

For Sun Tzu, the most excellent form of combat is the art of neutralizing your opponent without having to field your army. The level below that involves fielding the army but not having to send them into combat. The level below that is sending them into combat and not losing your army and/or fortune.

The situation in Iraq is not drawing Jihadists into a kill zone. It is a training ground drawing in a wider range of recruits than the Afghan war did against the Soviets. Your notion of trapping them all in an inescapable pincer movement requires some way of trapping them all in an inescapable pincer movement.

If you know of a place where this sort of thing is going on, please share.

If you would like to provide summaries on my previous posts, make sure that you relate that your response still has not stated your position on the support of Hezbollah as a terrorist group. You are still silent on the point.

If you don't consider his initial point about Iraq increasing Al qaeda as a threat a "single substantive point", then I can assume you and I are in agreement on something.

Make that accused *two* TPMCafe members of supporting terrorists.

Dissent Protects Democracy.

5 weeks, 6 days. Welcome to the Cafe, PE.

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Consider it your third opportunity to clarify your point and remove any doubt.

That was me, whose nephew has a metal plate in his head from being wounded on the first day into Iraq in March 2003.

Tom

Welcome to the club. I consider it an honor to be on TJ's bad list and you should too. We must be doing something right.

Tom

We don't see much coverage of the phenomenon, but we continue to kill a lot of Al Qaeda members in Iraq or otherwise his point that it is increasing their membership implies we are not able to locate them. This is the hypothetical I was making. If they come in greater numbers that is to our benefit if we want to locate them and then kill them.

It is interesting that your link stated that both OBL and GWB consider Iraq to be the central front in the war. If OBL considers it the central front, then why would we focus as much attention in other locations.

I did not claim they are in an inescapable pincer movement and anyway Sun Tzu recommended an escape route in Pincer movements.

Following your three levels of preference from Sun tzu, I guess the first one you mention as most prefered would be UN security council resolution 660 and the subsequent 661 and 662, etc. The second option would be Desert Shield and the third would be Desert Storm including the resumption of hostilities based on UNSCR 1441. Thanks for the post.

Once again, Speedy recovery to your nephew.

All us terrorist supporters look alike. heh heh.

Dissent Protects Democracy.

User Rating

TJKING 1

Our friend TJ is now taking to abusing the ratings system.

Yay.

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Whatever level of agreement might exist between OBL and GWB, the central claim of the link was to say that Iraq is permitting the number of jihadist with combat experience to increase exponentially. Many of them survive, leave, and encourage others to follow in their path.

I am not in a position to prove this is happening. There is the point of view I linked to. There are others. But the lack of border control, the extensive network of support lines between Sunnis of all stripes with groups outside the country, and the failure of the U.S. forces to stop the sort of activities that they themselves specifically accuse the "Jihadists" of perpetrating all go to put the burden of proof of representing Iraq as a battleground rather than a petri dish upon those who argue the former. I am not saying this as a rhetorical device. I would genuinely be interested in any account that shows how what is going on in Iraq threatens the militant Islamists in any way.

The progression from UN resolutions to fielding the armies was so closely bound together that the "highest level" must involve something else that didn't happen. I will think about how to best express that.

Good points. I look forward to hearing about it.

First you call for censorship of my posts because your argument could not hold up, then you resort to cussing at all of my posts and now you accuse me of abuse because I don't rate your post the way you like?

I think you are getting a bit sensitive for someone who signs all his posts "Dissent protects Democracy".

Good to see you could refrain from cussing.

Recommending the murder of the President of the United states is a crime. I am not surprised tlees and cville would chime in to support you. Your bitterness and hatred has consumed you. Do you realize how you are effecting the image of the Left in America. You are creating a party of screaming hatred.

Well I'll tell you Mr. King, I am not sure that any single party has much to do with it, but I will agree with you that many of us harbor a considerable amount of hate.

We hate that this administration is attempting to expropriate our civil liberties, one at a time.

We hate that this admininstration has directly and deliberately driven our armed forces into a dangerous state of unreadiness.

We hate that this administration has lead a campaign for "permanent one-party rule" in America.

We hate that this administration has killed more Americans than the 9/11 terrorists did by prosecuting a war that they manufactured using lies, bribes, and extortion.

We hate that this administration's only veto in six years prohibited research that could save the lives of children in favor of clumps of cells smaller than a gnat's brain that soon will be destroyed in any case.

We hate that this administration is built on pandering, smirks, swagger, testosterone, and slogans like "Mission Accomplished," "Bring It On," "Stay the Course," and "A vote for our critics is a vote for the terrorists."

So, yeah, if some of our hate leaks over to the Decider himself; if some of us would like to see him take a taste from the banquet of execution he has so generously laid on; if some of us would like to see him impeached, tried, and punished for his crimes against democracy and humanity; maybe those of you who actually support the kind of behavior above, maybe you will understand.

KJ, I have seen you in the past type something in the heat of the moment and then later retract it because you were trying to restrain yourself. I respect that. Even now, you are choosing your words more carefully than these people. The guy earlier that was slurring gays merely to "get off" on the thrill of hurting someone, you trashed him and did so for the right reasons.

You bring up impeachment, well at least that is constitutional and legal as wrong as I think it might be, but its within our system, so its still a limit. When the left crosses over into the kind of hate that is blinding, hyperbolic, and consuming as that gay basher, or this guy, or the Vince Foster conspiracy theorists of the right, it threatens to turn the left into a Nixonian cauldron of darkness.

Nixon said: "Those who hate you don't win unless you hate them, and then you destroy yourself."

I'm glad to see your restraint and your reluctance to out do the kill Bush guy.

I really don't want to turn this thread examining the President's address into one arguing about the justifications for initiating and sustaining the current military actions in Iraq, although it seems that TJ is intent upon doing so. I suppose I should address his central argument, considering I did rate him a troll in this thread.

We don't see much coverage of the phenomenon, but we continue to kill a lot of Al Qaeda members in Iraq or otherwise his point that it is increasing their membership implies we are not able to locate them. This is the hypothetical I was making. If they come in greater numbers that is to our benefit if we want to locate them and then kill them.

I'm sure US troops kill many Al Qaeda members, whatever membership implies, in their engagements in Iraq. What this administration and the most ardent defenders of this "war" as the central front in the War on Terror fail to recognize, however, is the degree to which this has become a side story for the average Iraqi citizen. The only matter of significance is the paper-thin vaneer of moral justification a conflagrance of sectarian hatred with hatred of the US provides.

For our position, however, the Al Qaeda-in-Iraq connection was a poor excuse for launching a war against Bagdhad. As a semi-secular socialist movement, Ba'athism had little to gain from open collusion. In the months leading up to the tensions that gained the UN renewed access to Iraqi weapons sites (which provided us the first real ACCURATE intelligence we'd had in years), the terrorist Abu Nidal "committed suicide" while under house arrest in Bagdhad. Why was he under house arrest? Because he had illegally re-entered the country in search of medical treatment. Truth be told, the presence of PKK members under the protection of the US-enforced no-fly zone was probably the biggest terrorist presence in all of Iraq. This was especially beneficial to the Kurdish group, whose leader Ocalan was imprisoned shortly before Desert Fox rendered Saddam a nominal power in the north.

Beyond that, you seem to cling to the notion that just because we created a hot zone in Iraq all Al Qaeda will make their way their as if it were a new Mecca: a "Killing Field of Dreams" as it were. Rule #1 of exterminating vermin: assume for every roach you see, there are a hundred you don't. For all the Al Qaeda you kill in the streets of Bagdhad, or anywhere else in Iraq, there will be hundreds more gestating in far more precarious places around the world.

I would wager that the longer we maintain a presence in Iraq, the greater the danger of an uprising in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and above all, Pakistan. Bush has cuddled up to a number of figures, not least of whom Pervez Musharraf, who can't afford to be associated with him. Musharraf in particular, who was the only major figure in the region to recognize the Taleban government of Afghanistan, has revealed that his control over his own territory is severely limited. He readily acknowledges that he doesn't have the ability to lock down the border region with Afghanistan (although he seems pretty certain OBL isn't there) and the Taleban has its roots in Pakistan's religious establishment.

Al Qaeda, like Saddam and the Ba'athists, are not stupid. They know the power the US brings to bear in an open field of combat and they know they can't compete. The Ba'athists knew once the army and government were dissolved that there was no place at the table for them and they melted into the background to fight an insurgent war of attrition. Al Qaeda knows that their best chance at taking down the US would be to tie them up in a place of little consequence (Afghanistan, Iraq), while working toward taking down a regional power with a real military. Saudi Arabia has always been their dream, but don't think for a moment that a nuclear armed Pakistan doesn't make for a tasty treat. Al Qaeda only needs enough volunteers to cross into Iraq to keep us tied up. The lion's share of their recruits need to stay in a place like Pakistan where there is no will to face them down as they preach the virtues of theocracy. They dream of a Sunni version of Iran's revolution, which they thought they had achieved in Afghanistan. But to quote words that are far more prophetic than most realize, there are no good targets in Afghanistan.

The only thing that makes Iraq the central front in the War on Terror is our presence there and the conviction of a delusional president. It is a false hope that open combat is the flame that will draw the Al Qaeda moth to it in numbers more significant than its presence elsewhere. I am actually reminded of the Thirty Year's War, in which the population of Central Europe (mostly Germany) was reduced to almost 1/5 its original number by a war waged by foreign powers. We all know how well that worked in turning that region into a peaceful, enlightened democracy.

Since it was Zarqawi who blew up the Sammara Mosque what benefit was there to keeping him alive? Al Qaeda is violently opposed to Shiites. Sadr's increased use of force stepped up after the bombing of the Mosque.

What evidence is there that Zarqawi's death changed the charater of al Qaeda in Iraq?

Bin Laden had been moving around the Middle East long before the invasion of Iraq. He, and al Qaeda have links to the Muslim Brotherhood which is based in Egypt.

Bush's errors are so numerous but his greatest seems to be focused on state sponsored terrorism. What seems much more dangerous and potent is trans-national terrorism that is organized around different views of Islam.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

Yossaf Ramzi and Mohammad Atta didn't need to laugh as Americans went to the Middle East.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

What evidence is there that Zarqawi's death changed the charater of al Qaeda in Iraq?

Follow the link in my comment. The New York Times Week In Review last weekend had a whole page graphic on the changing nature of the insurgency, including how al Qaeda In Iraq now has a more legitimate, home-grown membership, and how they are linking up with many other Iraqi groups.

 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

I wonder whether you are being disingenuous or insensible in missing the point of the comments to which you replied. Or perhaps like Mr. Bush, you are just stuck with something you said and find it impossible to admit your mistake.

In case you don't already know it: No one above was was advocating, suggesting, or contemplating murder as you so charmingly suggest. What they were talking about is justice. Their tone may be less measured than mine, and I must admit that the death penalty offends me even when wanton war criminals are in the dock. But the desire to have this administration's miscreants held responsible for their antidemocratic, obscene, unscrupulous, bloodthirsty, corrupt behavior is a desire that I share wholeheartedly.

If Bush were to be convicted and sentenced to hang, I wonder if he would go with the kind dignity that Saddam demonstrated. Perhaps he would rather reprise his Karla Tucker "Please don't kill me" comedy act.

The fact that we will never see it happen makes the fantasy even sweeter.

"A" for effort.

I'm sure you'll receive a thoughtful response from the troll. 

It is a false hope that open combat is the flame that will draw the Al Qaeda moth to it in numbers more significant than its presence elsewhere.

See: Spain, London, etc...

 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Of course, for every Bin Laden sympathizer we kill we create a couple more, and for every Bin Laden non-supporter we kill as "collateral damage" we create a heck of a lot of Bin Laden supporters. Plus Bin Laden's goal was to stick us in a similar situation to the one the Soviets got stuck in in Afghanistan thus making it easier for Al Qaeda to kill us "infidels" over there so they don't have to come over here. Thus Bush's policy is helping Al Qaeda achieve one of its goals. So, I guess TJ can add Bush to his "supports the terrorists" list.

Tom

I was neither. I was paying you a compliment for what its worth. I was not addressing the grievances that make someone lose civility, I was complimenting you for attempting at times to remain civil unlike the guy that is advocating killing Bush. Although you are against capital punishment, the fact that you seem to be deriving satisfaction in the fantasy of his hanging, makes me wonder if my compliment was a mistake.

Rather than dwell on it, I hold out hope that my previously positive view of your attempts to keep this an exchange of "ideas" was not "insensible".

TJ the King, once again displaying his superior geo-political gravitas, his high caliber intellect, and his solution to the quagmire:

Bring 'em On!

I hold out hope that my previously positive view of your attempts to keep this an exchange of "ideas" was not "insensible".
Be sure to let me know right away when you have one.

If you mean, when i have a positive view of you, I had one but its gone now. Hope your murder fantasies work out for you.

Peace, man!

You are the only person in this thread with murder on the mind, but I understand that it is beyond you to comprehend that.

If Bush kills and tortures, that's just tough; but when we dream of justice, that's murder. Mr. King, you have not only inhaled the right-wing dope, you have made brownies from it and washed them down with the bong water.

Peace?!? I denounce your idea of peace just as thoroughly as I denounce your idea of respect.

Plus Bin Laden's goal was to stick us in a similar situation to the one the Soviets got stuck in in Afghanistan thus making it easier for Al Qaeda to kill us "infidels" over there so they don't have to come over here.

Hmm...That's actually quite a brilliant turn of their sloganeering; someone should pick that up. 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Amen, KJLiberal!

As for Mr. King, I despise Bush and his crew for all the reasons KJ has noted here. But I did not advocate lynching him, which is pretty much the tenor of his treatment of the Iraqi people and soon the Iranians and anyone else he thinks has wronged him and his. Lynching is extralegal. Hanging is a punishment for crimes, and Bush's actions warrant trial for war crimes. It is on those grounds that I would like to see him tried and, if found guilty, hung. I think the context should have made that clear. Apparently not.

Apparently the Republican Conservatives and their fellow travelers are a party of polite, civil, intelligent, factually-informed lovers of governmental behavior? I suppose that Ann Coulter and Limbaugh and Savage and the whole Regnery crew are your idea of the voices of reason and civility.

It is those people's screaming hatred of the Constitution, of the rule of law, of international treaties and obligations, of facts, of evidence, of diplomacy, of anything that's not white and American and money-driven and Christian (now there's a laugh!) that deserves the most powerful and unmitigated condemnation that we can muster. And it is to that group that Bush belongs.

You'll find my comment on hanging (a punishment under law) and lynching (a crime) elsewhere in this thread. Lynching is what Conservatives and wingnuts of the right prefer - no messy laws and constitutional rights and civil rights to get in their way.

And I do think that your apparent defense of civility elsewhere is laughable. We on the Left are to be civil and responsible and measured, while you and the rest on the Right can say whatever you like, pretending that your lies and distortions and manipulations and illogic and hatred are okay just as long as they are spoken civilly. Talk about hypocritical and pathetic!

No, the context does not make it clear. Talking casually about hijackings or bombs on a plane is not excusable even if it is in what you think is the proper context, nor is recommending the killing of a President. If you believe a President should face a constitutional challenge of some sort you need to say so. Rallying others to have him killed is a federal crime and as I have said to KJ, no excuse about your emotional rantings and frustrations about his sound policies excuses your negligence.

I'll make you a promise, Mr. King. The very moment we feel we need to make excuses to you, we will buy a 60-second spot on both the Rush Limbaugh and Bill O'Reilly shows. That way, you can't miss it and you won't have to do the kind of complex interpretation of written material that everybody else who reads this blog was able to do.

I must say, however, I don't see this happening in the duration of this universe. But stay tuned (as if you weren't).

As Elvis would say, "Thank ya, Thank ya, Thank ya very much."

Tom

Last shot, fella. I was not talking casually. Nor am I talking about a constitutional challenge. I believe Bush is a war criminal. I believe he should be tried as such by an international tribunal, and, if found guilty, he should receive the death penalty. Nor am I rallying others. I never rallied anyone in my life. I'm apparently too rude. But neither am I alone in my opinion on the matter.

And what finally makes it bloody obvious that there is no point in continuing any discussion/confrontation or whatever with you is that you think that little moron has 'sound policies'. You go have yourself a nice time with Billo and all the other wingos you agree with. Or even better, you like his sound policies so much? Go down to the recruiting office and sign up for military service in Iraq. Doesn't really matter how old you are, or how deficient mentally or physically, or how young you are. Your hero's sound policies will soon require any warm body that he can throw into the frays he has, is, and will be creating. (Except of course for his daughters and nieces and nephews, and those of his friends and cronies and co-conspirators.)

You love his policies, you believe he's done the right thing, then you go bleed for him.

I'm done here.

Now you are saying that the brave Americans that sign up for the military are Mentally deficient. Maybe you can deny it first and then claim it was a "botched joke". Another Democrat that "loathes" the military. Surprise. Real class.

Give it up Mr. King. We've all heard these ad hominems before, and both Limbaugh and O'Reilly are more entertaining doing it.

I've been meaning to ask: Did you ever stop beating your wife?

Or even better, you like his sound policies so much? Go down to the recruiting office and sign up for military service in Iraq. 

Ah yes. TJKING -- blogging over here, so he doesn't have to fight them over there. 

Or is that she?

Whatever. 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

My god you are dense, tjking. Is it deliberate or are you just incapable of reading and thinking at the same time?

In point of fact the military is in such straits that it has lowered its mental and physical and moral requirements. So they will now take people with various degrees and categories of deficiencies that they would not touch before your psychopathic hero set out to destroy the military with his arrogant, stupid, thoughtless adventuring. That can only get worse.

Did I say I loathed the military? No. Have I denied anything I've said here? No. Did I say people in the military are deficient in any way? No.

You, on the other hand, seem profoundly determined to deny reality. Good luck with that.

The only bad joke around here seems to be whatever processes you use to think with. Here's a clue - they don't work.

I leave it to others to disabuse you of your fantasies and delusions. A hopeless task, I'm sure, but perhaps someone, somewhere, is bored enough to sink to the task.

Once more, done here. I won't be reading or responding to this thread anymore. It's fried. So save your pixels, kiddo.

Don't take it so personal, friend. Anytime a resident of the great state of Wingnuttia is soundly and thoroughly trashed in an argument about anything -- Iraq, rule of law, wiretapping, football, or favorite flavor of ice cream -- they are trained to crouch in a corner and respond, "Oh yeah? Well, you hate America, you hate the Troops, and your mother dresses you funny."

In fairness, the advanced division includes finding laws to ignore in order to wiretap the players of a US Army football team eating ice cream while talking about Iraq.

--
Howard

*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*

...and we certainly want to be fair.

Your quotes:
"...the military is in such straits that it has lowered its mental and physical and moral requirements..."

I wonder what he is trying to convey about our soldiers here?

"...So they will now take people with various degrees and categories of 'deficiencies' that they would not touch before..."

Oh, I see, he wants us to understand his views about the American soldiers. Oh I see they are people with "deficiencies" he says, ok, I get it.

"...Have I denied anything I've said here? No. Did I say people in the military are 'deficient in any way'? No!..."

Hmmm, I was following along there with his point about their "deficiencies" and now he turns around and denies he has said just that. He says, "in any way",...hmmm? Wow, I need someone to disabuse me of my attempt to make sense of clearly self contradictory dribble.

It seems like he has low regard for our soldiers which all testing to date shows they rate higher on all possible tests than their non military counterparts. Oh, but I could be wrong.

You also said:
"...I won't be reading or responding to this thread anymore...".

Then you won't see this post and others can see your slander of our soldiers for what it is. Nonsense!

Oh Yeah?

Mr. King, you seem to be denying that the military is lowering its mental and physical standards to meet its recruitment goals. Am I correct?

Still engaging the troll, KJ?

A glutton, you are...

Dissent Protects Democracy.

Good descriptor for me: glutton. I love to chew up his logic, digest it, and return a pile of shit.

That is a perfectly accurate description of the value of what you return.

I'm opposed to capital punishment. So if Bush ever goes to the International War Crimes Tribunal, as he should, a long imprisonment would be the appropriate sentence.

Tom

OK. I'll tell you. There was an alternative - don't invade Iraq in March 2003.

Tom

I'm shocked that you even recognize accuracy. Never mind, you just recognize shit.

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