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Fine-Tuning a Concert of Democracies
Thanks to Bruce for weighing in with his skepticism about a Concert of Democracies. It will come as no surprise that as thoughtful as his arguments were they did not persuade me to recant what Ivo and I wrote in the American Interest. But perhaps I can still persuade him—or a few of our readers.
Bruce raised four reservations in his first post. A quick response to each:
There will be squabbles over who gets in. No doubt about it. Organizations that get to pick their members inevitably debate who qualifies for admission. But that’s the price of doing business, and it is hardly an exorbitant one. We already have international institutions that expand their membership as they see fit—the G-8, OECD, and WTO are the three best-known.
You will need to punish or toss out backsliders. Yes, you will. Whether the punishment is loss of voting rights in the organization, loss of economic privileges, or outright expulsion would depend on how the Concert evolved and the facts of the case at hand. But don’t forget the flip side: If a robust and dynamic Concert existed, the prospect of such punishments could dissuade future Thai generals from overthrowing duly elected officials.
We will still need to work with China and other authoritarian governments. Yes, we will. That is a fact of life. But as I argued in an earlier post, we can walk and chew gum at the same time. The argument for creating a Concert of Democracies is not that it will save us from sullying our hands by working with the Chinese or going to the UN. The argument is that it is the best vehicle for rallying countries who are likely to share our interest in maximizing the chances that the international order is conducive to liberal, democratic government.
Getting democracies to cooperate will not be easily and it won’t solve all our problems. No, it won’t. Democracies can find plenty of things to disagree over, and their interests don’t always exactly align. What democracies do have, though, is a proven track record of cooperation. They work better together because their shared commitment to the rule of law and government of, by, and for the people enables them to trust one another. Washington has trust problems today in much of the world not because its interests have changed, but rather—as AA posters love to point out—because the United States has backed away from its commitment to the rule of law. Moreover, a Concert will promote further democratic cooperation by reminding democratic governments what they too easily forget: They have common interests with other democracies precisely because they share the same commitment to individual rights, rule of law, and government by the people. Simply put, think dynamically and not statically—group membership changes how people see the world and their interests in it.
In his second post, Bruce worried that that a Concert of Democracies would absorb too much of a new president’s time. I probably have greater faith than Bruce does in the White House’s ability to manage more than one diplomatic initiative at one time. But I also wouldn’t have the president to champion the Concert idea in such a ham-handed way. The sad consequence of the Bush administration’s foreign policy stewardship over the past six years is that Washington is now a poor messenger for the Concert idea. That is why Ivo and I argue for a lower-key approach, one that emphasizes trying to persuade democracies like Brazil, Germany, India, and Japan that they should champion a Concert of Democracies.
Bruce would prefer that the next president focus his or her energy on improving U.S.-China relations, promoting the responsibility to protect, and combating global climate change. All three are noble goals, but as Rachel points out, they don’t amount to a vision that will mobilize the American public. Even more troubling, they don’t provide a blueprint for the world we are trying to create. And as the old saying goes, if you don’t know where you are going, any road will take you there—whether you are in tune or not.














Comments (34)
This concert of democracies idea is silly, and its a shame that its taking up all the space on a page that would be a great forum to discuss real issues that demand urgent attention.
You tried, but its time to call it quits on this topic. Maybe bring it back later when people are "ready" to hear it.
Right now, wouldn't it be good to try and delve into substantive issues?
December 19, 2006 3:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope.
Neither does the CoD.
December 19, 2006 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce would prefer that the next president focus his or her energy on improving U.S.-China relations, promoting the responsibility to protect, and combating global climate change. All three are noble goals, but as Rachel points out, they don’t amount to a vision that will mobilize the American public.
Why shouldn't global climate change be a mobilizing force for the American people? It is a much bigger threat to the American people (except Sen. Inhofe, who is probably looking forward to the "End Times") and all people of this planet than all the un-democratic regimes combined. And all it would take to mobilize the American public is to have people put their energies into addressing that problem that are being put into pushing a CoD...
December 19, 2006 4:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce would prefer that the next president focus his or her energy on improving U.S.-China relations, promoting the responsibility to protect, and combating global climate change. All three are noble goals, but as Rachel points out, they don’t amount to a vision that will mobilize the American public.
I may be wrong James, and perhaps you have some empirical evidence that shows otherwise, but it is my sense that the US public is not terribly interested right now in creating new organizations that will make it easier to intervene in foreign countries, and make those interventions more likely to occur. The vast majority think the current war was a mistake, and are now convinced that the whole crowd in Washington - White House and Congress alike - is made up of incompetent bunglers. They are in "bring the boys home" mode. And I can't think of any water cooler or donut shop conversation I have had recently that suggested to me there was a great public yearning for a concert of democracies or something like it. So it's hard for me to envision a major public mobilization behind the idea of the concert.
On the other hand there is a certain contingent on the right that is always in favor of anything that promises to further weaken the UN. So you might be able to round up a good deal of support from the Boltonistas.
I suspect global climate change is now a much bigger issue than you suspect. The background of inflexible and ostrich-like right-wing skepticism about climate change seems to be fading away palpably, and the anti-global warming cause has picked up allies in parts of the evangelical community. Perhaps it still has something to do with which the part of the country you live in. But the issue seems to generate a lot of talk up here in New Hampshire across the political spectrum, especially since average temperature changes have been more dramatic here than in any other section of the country. Weird unseasonable weather is something people can feel and understand, and they are getting it.
And the public is now completely on board with the idea of the importance of energy politics to our national security, and the costs of our dependence on foreign oil. This is an issue that generates intense interest and anger from the populist right to the progressive ledft. Most Americans are extremely frustrated that our energy needs have tied our security to the goings on in religiously wacked-out, unstable hellholes around the world. If you are looking for a big theme to motivate a foreign policy agenda, this is it. I don't fully understand why centrist liberals have been so slow to get on board with this one in a convincing way. Could it be that with their total infatuation with flat earth globalization and interdependence, they actually like the fact that we are dependent on foreign countries for our energy needs? Or maybe they are content with the fact that US security is bound up with the stability of basket-case regions in the Middle East and Africa, because that makes it more likely that we will be called on to intervene there at some point?
Another big issue which has a global dimension that ordinary Americans readily grasp is jobs. Working Americans are desperate for leaders to give them a convincing plan to arrest the flow of American jobs overseas. But this is another issue where neoliberal centrists Dems are either tone deaf, or prevented by their free-trading ideological commitments from doing anything constructive other than lecture middle-aged Americans on getting more education so that they can compete when creative destruction eradicates the job they have held for years.
December 19, 2006 5:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why should we call this a "concert of democracies." Why not tell the truth, have the organizational meeting in Vienna and call it "A New Congress of Vienna." (The 1815 congress where the victors of the Napoleonic wars met to carve up Europe). That's what it is, right?
Yeah, great! A "concert of Democracies" where nations could be expelled because "you need to punish or toss out backsliders."
Well, so much for U.S. participation! We haven't been a functioning democracy since November 2000!
All this because, of course the U.N. hasn't worked all these years because of all the "backslider" third world countries that clog up the gears so that the "great powers" can't get things done!
In contrast to this nonsense, it's interesting to look at what a REAL international organization with some power would do to the U.S. when we blatantly ingore international law and commit the "supreme international crime," the crime from which all other crimes follow (in the words of the Nuremburg tribunal) -- by "waging aggressive war" in invading Iraq -- against virtually unanimous worldwide public opposition as registered by opinion polls throughout the world?
Well first, under international law, aggressor states that invade other countries in violation of international law have NO rights whatsoever, only obligations.
That is unambiguous under the UN charter, thus, binding as the law of the land on all member states, including the U.S. (but ignored in practice by those states powerful enough to do so).
Second, the duty of the invader is to make reparations to the occupied country. That is also crystal clear.
Third, it is the duty of the occupier to obey the wishes of the occupied country. In the case of Iraq, public opinion polls regularly taken by the U.S. show an overwhelming majority of the Iraqi people (over 70%) demand a timetable for immediate withdrawal by ALL U.S. and allied forces (including all "private contractors" who may number as many as official U.S. troops).
Think your "concert of democracies" would be willing to put those issues on the agenda? Announce an immediate timetable for speedy withdrawal by U.S. and allied forces, followed by reparations to the Iraqis?
I didn't think so.
Instead we have another arrogant attempt to re-draft the UN charter so that only favored nations get to participate. Thus we can dominate discourse in this new world body, while ignoring the rest of the world community.
December 19, 2006 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The C.o.D. seems to be dreamed up for only two reasons. First, is to aid in arranging things so the very wealthy businessmen in the "democracies" can make still more money at the expense of non-wealthy citizens of "not the democracies". And, the second, which is really just to aid in accomplishing the first, is making it much easier to recruit allies the next time some little nation doesn't do what we want them to do and we feel a need to invade them. I wish someone would introduce the promoters of this Concert to Sudoku. That would keep their idle minds busy on something far less harmful.
I apologize for the insulting tone of this comment, but when I see such an obvious scam in the making I have a very hard time just keeping quiet.
Hoppy in Sacramento
December 19, 2006 6:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dan,
You wrote:
"it is my sense that the US public is not terribly interested right now in creating new organizations that will make it easier to intervene in foreign countries"
and
"I can't think of any water cooler or donut shop conversation I have had recently that suggested to me there was a great public yearning for a concert of democracies or something like it."
I agree completely. We are decidedly apathetic toward oppressed peoples. Isn't this something we should try to change?
Is there a way to get the American people more interested in failed states, dictatorships, and Hizb ut Tahrir's vision?
I think you have put your finger on our biggest internal problem in America.
I hope we elect someone with a little lead in his pencil in 2008. 9/11 woke us up and galvanized us for about 2 months. We shouldn't need a tragedy to make us look at the root causes of oppression.
December 19, 2006 7:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Just this statement alone makes me dislike the sound of the Concert.
If it's a democratic organization, why don't the people decide who gets in, and who doesn't?
In Noam Chomsky's "Hegemony or Survival," he quickly reminds us that a) the elites make the decisions in our democracy; and b) elections are used to manipulate voters into herds that give the elites their mandate to rule.
After watching the UN a bit, I hardly think that humans are capable of forming a democratic organization. You only have to listen to the speakers at the last Republican Convention or, more recently, to John Bolton.
In my mind, you're promoting ivory tower ideals that can only be put onto plaques next to either the 10 commandments or Bill Bennett's "Book of Virtues."
I love the 10 commandments but have you seen the videos where conservative politicians are asked to name them?
December 19, 2006 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Americans are indeed growing more reluctant to intervene militarily in other countries, that is not a cultural tendency I am inclined to work against. While total apathy is not defensible, a strong general reticience to intervene militarily in the affairs of other countries is, on the whole, a virtuous national attribute and one that is conducive to international peace. I think we would all be much better off if the attitude were more widespread in this country. Some potentially good things might not get done, but these failures would be outweighed by the fact that murderous and ignorant misadventures like the Iraq War would not occur.
The Hizb ut Tahrir is one among several international groups who favor a restoration of the Islamic caliphate, along with a broader political and social program. Frankly, I don't think this is a particularly urgent matter for US concern. For one thing, I don't think the caliphate is returning any time soon. And as I understand it, the group is non-violent. As long as they they press their cause through non-violent means, they are free to speak and advocate.
Islam had a caliphate in one form or another for about 1300 years, and the political organization of Islamic countries is an intra-Islamic issue. I am not a Muslim, and so don't feel I have any legitimate say in how Muslims choose to govern themselves, any more than it is my business if Israelis want to pass laws against non-kosher foods and work on the sabbath, or if Catholics want to allow women priests and married priests, or not.
9/11 might have caused us to "wake up" to some extent, but it also made us go completely crazy once we were awake. Rather than elect an even more crazy and activist president, I hope we instead manage to settle down and elect a more circumspect leader.
December 19, 2006 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dan, you wrote:
"a strong general reticience to intervene militarily in the affairs of other countries is, on the whole, a virtuous national attribute and one that is conducive to international peace."
How about Intra-national peace? Why would you be satisfied with nations committing brutality within their own borders? Brutality is brutality whether it is nation vs. nation or government vs. it own peoples.
Judging by that standard, the Sudan is a peaceful place. So is Uganda and any number of other countries. Where is our justification for looking the other way while other people get slaughtered, or simply oppressed?
Haven't we learned anything from the Kitty Genovese incident?
The path you are suggesting is tacit approval of brutality. It seems to me that you are suggesting we "turn up our radio" so we don't hear the screams of the Kitty Genoveses of the world.
The "affairs" of other countries? How about the affairs of other human beings? Genovese's neighbors certainly had that same "a strong general reticience to intervene" in her affairs.
The Concert of Democracies sounds to me like a neighborhood watch designed to protect the Kitty Genoveses of the world and prevent the Winston Moseleys from committing brutal or repressive acts on our brothers and sisters around the world.
December 20, 2006 5:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
"the price of doing business" pretty much says it all. The fusion of "democracies" and "business" has become so complete we tend to use the words interchangeably.Decisions are made using the corporate model : the biggest shareholder has the biggest say. Does the US get to be in the C of D? Do you really think we are governed "by the people"? This might be the reform you want to work on first.
December 20, 2006 6:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is something about this kind of analogizing (Kitty G) that is fishy, but I can't pin it down precisely. Partly it is the suspicion that the urge to intervene is not quite the altruistic drive it advertises itelf to be.
Many of us note that this new-found do-gooderism ignored Zimbabwe and Sudan, being directed at Iraq, where we would save the poor oppressed Iraqis from their dictator. I note it still ignores Zimbabwe, and has no ideas for North Korea.
Using the Kitty G-type analogy, how do you propose distinguishing between domestic violence that calls for intervention and a simple shouting match? And unlike the domestic-crime metaphor, we don't have the luxury of directing the entire government at an individual. Instead, it is more like the town sheriff and a posse against a gang, and no federal backup. Success is far from assured, legitimacy is easily questioned (absent the imprimatur of the world at large), and unintended effects can include new enemies and worse security (see Iraq).
Especially since this argument, that it is morally required we police the world, was exactly opposed by its current proponents, until recently, (not that it was anything but a straw man), it does not sit well with me. Putting it bluntly, I don't buy it. Proponents are either exploiting psychology to further imperial ambition, or are simply snookered by the inside players.
December 20, 2006 6:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
"If a robust and dynamic Concert existed, the prospect of such punishments [expulsion from the COD] could dissuade future Thai generals from overthrowing duly elected officials." Why? Shame at being branded not a democracy and of feeling the editorial disapproval of Western liberals? This kind of argument is mind-boggling. First, shame at exactly that hasn't deterred them yet. Second, the pressure from the West has been minimal, and they know that a pretence of a Congress of Vienna won't change how self-interested parties (like the Bushies) act. Third, anyone can just claim higher ground, as the Thai militarists have (or the Bushies have in Iraq), and insist they're the ones restoring Democracy. We already have a Congress of Hypocrisy, the Coalition of the Willing. Let's leave it at that and get back to work on what degrees of cooperation and leadership we can restore to America.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
December 20, 2006 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I only recommended a greater reticence to intervene militarily, not a total and uncompromising opposition to all interventions. But looking at recent American history, if I had to choose between "too ready to intervene" and "not ready enough to intervene" as the bigger problem, I would say it is the former rather than the latter.
In setting rules for international conduct, we have to take account of our own fallibility and ignorance. It turned out that most of our self-appointed Iraq experts in the government, think tanks and the media didn't have the slightest f***ing idea what they were doing there, and have killed hundreds of thousands of innocent people as a result. Do you have more confidence in their judgment when it comes to Iran or Darfur?
Countries throughout modern history have often thought they new best how to "fix" other countries, and about the need to liberate them or convert them to the correct ideology or religion, and have usually ended up causing more harm tha good. A general respect for the sovereignty of other countries, even those countries that don't appear to be deserving of that respect, is a guard aginst a descent into the total lawless chaos of violence and fanatical moral zealotry. It's one thing to be skeptical of the abuse of sovereignty. But your apparent complete disdain for the very concept of sovereignty is worrisome.
The Concert of Democracies sounds less like a neighborhood watch to me than an out-and-out vigilante group. But the thing is, it won't even be that. Like most such groupings, it will almost certainly evolve very quickly into a coalition for the promotion of the pure self-interest of its members.
December 20, 2006 7:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
The American public was not too interested in alliances in 1941 either. Roosevelt skirted the law in order to help the British from collapsing to the Nazis. Then came the Japanese and Pearl Harbor.
The American people believe that the United States can lead the world and be univolved in the world at the same time. This is a nice fantasy but still impossible. A large majority of Americans, despite Bush, believe America is a force for good in the world. What does that mean if we isolate ourselves?
The United States was not in Iraq in 1993 when the World Trade Center was blown up the first time. We were not in Iraq when U.S. African embassies were attacked. The American people would no doubt like to tell the world to go to hell. Train our nukes on it and dare further attacks. A garrisoned U.S. is dangerous.
The American people would also like to buy goods made in Japan and China and sell goods to every corner of the globe. Also a large number of Americans, those in the major corporations who represent a far larger number of people than those at the Cafe, are fanning out across the planet. They are bringing American values of market economics and individualism with them. It is also likely to make America and Americans permanent targets of the enemies of liberalism.
The COD may never be created and perhaps might not worrk as Ivo and Jim would like. However, such an institution might have a means to restrain the United States from unilateral action. It also would allow the creation of more civilian institutions to help failing states and it would allow countries from across the globe, but will similar political systems to help those both at home and abroad who are losers in the growing global economic system.
Americans believe we spend enormous sums on foreign aid and foreign policy adventures. America actually spends as a percentage of GNP a small amount. To rely on what the public wants would require explaining to them the actual facts of the world.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
December 20, 2006 7:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
Socialism is a losing idea. Empowered goverment bureaucrats may be a necessary evil but more often than not they are the real scam. The evil businessmen are already all over the world. Unless you are against risk taking and for chaos, stability, inovation and risk taking are the requirements for getting rich, not really the COD. If anything the COD might ameliorate some of the difficulties who can't keep up with the growing economies of China, India, Brazil, Poland and elsewhere.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
December 20, 2006 7:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
December 20, 2006 8:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
While we were in Iraq in the way that matters, enforcing no-fly and looking for weapons programs and stockpiles, it of course had nothing to do with either the first WTC attack, the embassy bombings, or the second WTC attack.
As many of us pointed out before we jumped the shark in Iraq, we were in Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda didn't give a shit about Iraq until we gave them a reason to do so. Shall we find another country to blunder into, cluelessly? How about Sudan? Remember there were AQ connections there, and they likely remain. Pehaps Somalia? Ditto. Let's stir up some more trouble; we still have some marginal reservists and national guard somewhere, I'm sure.
Ironic that the same people arguing for shared humanity and humane intervention have little actual respect for many of the people involved, such as Palestinians and Iranians. Don't get me wrong on sympathies; I think Islam is as much a delusion as any religion, and I find desert cultures too harsh for comfort. But I think there is a convenient exploitation of the moral card to act in ways that are purely self-interest.
December 20, 2006 8:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
Every decision has consequences. Deciding to intervene has consequences just the same as not intervening.
That is the part of the equation that is missing.
You said:
"Do you have more confidence in their judgment when it comes to Iran or Darfur?"
They are making judgments every day on those issues. So far the decision has been do nothing. That has lasting, far reaching consequences just the same as doing something.
Imagine if Israel hasn't blown up Osirak. We might be having this discussion in a cave right now, and it would have a much different tone. We would be saying, "why didn't we do anything?" and the answer would be a hollow sounding, "well, we thought Saddam has a right to have sovereignty over his borders."
We could be having that same conversation in 5 years about the Majles-e-Khobregan's rights of sovereignty, or Kim Jung Il's, or Hassan Aweys'.
December 20, 2006 9:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tom,
You are right. We are ignoring Zimbabwe and other countries. I think the Sudan is on the radar, but we certainly should do more. In order to do more in the current system (the U.N.) we will have to act "unilaterally" against the wishes of the "international community" (China and Russia).
If China and Russia weren't holding up the progress on Darfur, maybe more lives would be saved already.
You also wrote:
"this argument, that it is morally required we police the world"
We are morally required, but it is not practically possible. The only way we could truly "do good" around the globe is if we were many times more powerful than we are now. That prospect scares many people.
I think what is scarier than the America being more powerful, is America not being powerful enough. If China took Taiwan tonight, what would we do? Nothing. We are not powerful enough to do anything meaningful.
We aren't powerful enough to go into Waziristan right now because Pakistan would implode into chaos that would make Iraq look like Sweden.
Krauthammer described the direction America should take with his speech at AEI entitled Democratic Realism. I don't know if you've read it, but here it is:
http://www.aei.org/docLib/20040227_book755text.pdf
The main guiding principle of Democratic Realism is :
"We will support democracy everywhere, but we will commit blood and treasure only in places where there is a strategic necessity—meaning, places central to the larger war against the existential enemy, the enemy that poses a global mortal threat to freedom."
The reason for the Concert is to get other Democracies to chip in some of that "blood and treasure." Why is fixing the Sudan up to America? Why can't Scandinavia and Japan take care of that while we take care of Iraq and Afghanistan with the British and N.A.T.O? Why don't France, Poland and India take care of Somalia?
There is no common direction, no common vision for the Democracies right now. There should be and that is why I support the Concert idea.
December 20, 2006 9:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is no common direction, no common vision for the Democracies right now.
I think the many of the world's people are actually quite committed and unified behind a quite visionary progressive agenda. But the neoliberal elites in Washington and the Council of Foreign Relations haven't gotten ther memo.
In no particular order, here are the things that progressives around the world are screaming for:
1. Stop global warming, and save our environment from continuing degradation and ultimate devastation.
2. End the global Black War over energy resources which pits developed and developing powers in a struggle for strategic control over producing regions, and thereby prevent a global military conflagration which otherwise looks to be a practical certainty.
3. Address global poverty, inequality, disease and economic insecurity; redistribute wealth toward the world's neediest people; reassert the the power of people over corporations and the need for governance and accountability in the realm of economic affairs; and protect the world's people from the radical dislocations caused by globalized capitalism run amok.
4. Turn back the tide of nuclear proliferation, put the nuclear genie back in the bottle, and save millions of our descendents from incineration in fireballs of destruction.
5. Empower women everywhere to assume control over their reproductive lives.
6. Strengthen communites, families and other local human groups. Protect traditional societies. Weaken hegemonic states, corporations and undemocratic cliques of the powerful.
7. Secure a century of peace and prosperity for ourselves and our posterity.
This seems like quite a vision to me. But apparently, this vision just isn't visionary enough for some people.
December 20, 2006 10:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
I take it the first paragraph is a joke. We kicked the Iraqis out of Kuwait and prevented them from invading Saudi Arabia. After the disgraceful encouragement of the Shite uprising the U.S. protected the lives of Kurds and Shites. To suggest that was why the WTC as attack is somewhere between silly and outrageous.
It is not a matter of a respect for Palestinians or Iranians. If anythings those explain away there violence, their brutality and their stupid acts are the ones who deny their humanity. Part of respecting the humanity of someone is giving them credit for making choices.
The idea that the United States is some great source of evil is repugnant and fortunately so little held as to be largely irrelevant, unless those who helped notimiated Ned Lamont get control of the Presidential nominating process and help elect a Republican.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
December 20, 2006 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Is this "Concert of Democracies" business a stalking horse for Hillary's foreign policy platform (and appointments)?
sPh
December 20, 2006 10:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Dan,
You have outlined the left-wing priorities, now give us the right-wing priorities, then move on to each democracy one by one, and break down the multiple ideas they have about where we should be going.
You wrote:
"End the global Black War over energy resources"
How do we do this? By finding alternative fuels? We are doing that already.
You wrote:
"Address global poverty, inequality, disease and economic insecurity; redistribute wealth toward the world's neediest people"
That is exactly what globalized capitalism (with the help of American companies, the IMF, the World Bank, etc.) is doing, but I get the impression that you think globalized capitalism is the problem, not the solution.
You wrote:
"Turn back the tide of nuclear proliferation"
Do we do this by invading Iran and toppling the regime? Do we start with North Korea? Do we invade Pakistan? Do you think there is a common strategy on this issue? Maybe we should just give up ours? Maybe North Korea will feel guilty and give up theirs?
You wrote:
"Protect traditional societies"
Does that mean prevent modernization from empowering them? Keep them simple and poor so that we can control them?
You wrote:
"Empower women everywhere to assume control over their reproductive lives"
Do we do this by getting in between rapists and their victims? Or is that a violation of the rapists sovereignty (see Uday and Qusay)?
Do we do this by attacking any country using Sharia Law? Do we try to convince Sadr that Sharia is oppressive and hope he believes us?
You wrote:
"Secure a century of peace"
Have you ever heard the saying, "If you want peace, work for justice" ?
December 20, 2006 11:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
Why do we not intervene when we suspect an individual here might be a future criminal? Because he hasn't committed a crime, yet. Since we acknowledge we are not prescient concerning individuals in our own country, how can we presume to know another country's future?
Let's go ahead and imagine Osirak operating undamaged. No country has yet used nukes for other than pressure by holding them up as possible. So what we do know is that history suggests Saddam would not have used his nukes, but thrown around more weight. Thus he might (plausibly) not have had to invade Kuwait, because he could pressure them into limiting oil drilling and ponying up the dough he wanted. There also might have been no war with Iran; theywould perhaps have conceded territory.
So Iraq might have expanded, but lots of people would still be alive. Which is more humane, this scenario or what actually happened?
Beware convenient hindsight. And beware acting on those premonitions of future disaster. Even if we are dead certain, a preventive war looks like a war of choice to everybody else. And it's that "everybody else" that is the source of possible future enemies (or allies).
December 20, 2006 12:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't proofread so I'm a little confused by this:"To suggest that was why the WTC as attack is somewhere between silly and outrageous." I presume you meant to say "was attacked", not "as attack".
If so, you didn't read what I wrote: "...it of course had nothing to do with either the first WTC attack, the embassy bombings, or the second WTC attack." I was answering this from you: "The United States was not in Iraq in 1993..."
Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11, before or after. Our presence in Saudi Arabia was the public reason (AQ private strategy only guessed at).
December 20, 2006 12:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
Socialism is a losing idea. Empowered goverment bureaucrats may be a necessary evil but more often than not they are the real scam.
Want to hear a real scam Daniel? The scam that it is necessary in a free market to give oil companies taxpayer funded subsidies while the oil companies post record profits. Sounds like socialistic support of the oil industry to me...and isn't limited to big oil.
December 20, 2006 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Which is more humane, this scenario or what actually happened?"
Ask the Kurds.
December 20, 2006 1:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Saddam had not beed defeated in Kuwait and the Kurds did not rise up, many more might be alive. Is that what you mean?
I assume you mean the opposite, but the cryptic and rhetorical ""Ask the Kurds" doesn't tell me what you mean.
December 20, 2006 2:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
"If Saddam had not beed defeated in Kuwait and the Kurds did not rise up, many more might be alive."
You're right. I sure hope they learned their lesson. Those darn Kurds. If only Saddam had nuclear weapons, they would be too scared to rise up and they could have saved themselves the brutality.
That reminds me of a quote you'd probably agree with:
"If rape is inevitable, relax and enjoy it."
That mentality is exactly what I would have accused you of believing . . . but you actually admitted it before I had a chance!
Man, I hope Iran gets nuclear weapons so that their people don't rise up.
There really is peace in slavery.
Hey, let's give Nuclear weapons to the Janjaweed! That'll solve the problem of those pesky troublemakers in Darfur . . . or it would kill them all-- either way.
What where we talking about again?
December 20, 2006 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
So I guess, behind the sarcasm, you feel the invasion was worth for the Kurds' sake. They certainly agree. They may also agree that we should not have encouraged them before.
So it was morally good to see something like a hundred thousand dead Iraqis (some argue it is considerably more), three thousand dead American soldiers, many thousand injured permanently, a failed state beyond repair, Afghanistan failing, Osama still at large, Al Qaeda far from dead, and our reputation in tatters, for the sake of the Kurds?
I'm not persuaded.
December 20, 2006 4:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Tom, stay focused. We were talking about Osirak.
Ask the Kurds if they were glad about Osirak. Ask the Kurds if they wish Saddam would have had Nuclear weapons.
If you want to talk about our invasion in 2003, that is another act, by a different country.
I don't think the Kurds were upset that we encouraged them to rise up, I think they were upset that we didn't have their backs once they did. Our president in '91 was too concerned about poll numbers to risk helping them topple Saddam. Luckily for the Kurds that survived the anfal, the guy we have in power now doesn't seem to care about poll numbers.
I am confused about one thing though-- are you blaming America for killing it's own soldiers? Are you blaming America for the 100,000+ Iraqi deaths?
Did I miss something? Is there some evidence that we are the ones behind the car bombs?
Let's get real. What are we talking about here? If you are against innocent people dying, how about supporting the one dog in this fight that agrees with you-- America.
Why don't we stop saying things like "a failed state beyond repair" and start trying to think of ways we can succeed?
Here's a post from Bill Roggio, an embed in Iraq. He does not sugar coat anything that is happening, but he isn't begging for us to lose because he hates evangelicals who made money in oil and baseball.
http://billroggio.com/archives/2006/12/the_military_transit.php
You seem like a bright guy, but you are wasting your talent as a thinker throwing in the towel. It doesn't take any creativity to quit. It does take creativity to think of strategies, solutions and fresh ideas.
Forget about quitting for a minute. Let's drop the "sit back and relax" approach just for a minute.
I would like to hear your ideas about how we can win. How can we get things stable? How can we get the Islamists in a corner? How can we support the moderates without spoiling their legitimacy? How do we get the talented, skilled Iraqis back into the country? How do we prevent corruption in the Iraqi Police force?
December 20, 2006 5:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I appreciate your gracious attitude, and acknowledge that it would be irresponsible for the country to simply walk away (if we could; that would be messy, too).
But sorry, I have no ideas, and was against this from the start, mainly because I couldn't see a pressing need (which would justify acting with limited resources) or a way out afterward (regardless of adequate resources).
I'll trust the experienced to make suggestions; plenty have, from the military to the ISG. Good luck guys, I'm clueless. I''ll say this, though: If we pull this out of our ass, somehow, I don't plan on giving the White House an ounce of credit for anything good. I'll leave that where it belongs, with the troops, and the dogged professionals in intelligence and counter-insurgency, like Kilcullen.
I just wish we had stuck to the obvious--Afghanistan.
December 20, 2006 6:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Libertine
I totally agree with you. There are as few proponents of effective socialism as big corporations. In the example you gave, it seems odd that we want to use less oil but are still subsidizing oil companies to pull oil out of the ground.
Part of the problem we have is twofold. If you are going to have a too regulated economy then those so regulated are going to try to control how they are regulated. Secondly, if you are going to have large government regulators bureaucrats are much more about avoiding makking decisions than in furthering the public good.
I would agree that Federal employees tend to be far better than local and state ones.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
December 21, 2006 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink