Finally, after a year of promises, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert met on the night before Xmas Eve with Palestinian President Abu Mazen, at Olmert's official Jerusalem residence. Also in the meeting were Palestinian spokesman Saeb Erekat and Abu Ala, who was the previous Fatah leader of the Palestinian Parliament. It's anyone's guess why Olmert finally scheduled this meeting-which according to early press reports did yield some gifts for Mazen, but it's pretty obvious that Olmert, leading a weak government, needed to institute some drastic measures to strengthen Mazen, in an even weaker position, if Israel didn't want the entire Israel/Palestine equation to spiral completely out of control (that is, instead of nearly out of control, where it is today).

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I was talking to a reporter the other day, arguing that while Bush inherited a lot of problems from Clinton, in each instance he had done everything possible to make things worse. The reporter told me take a look at the 2000 GOP foreign policy platform, and reread the litany of indictments Bush & Co. had issued with respect to Clinton’s foreign policy. So I did. Sure makes for interesting reading.

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As a followup to discussing why politicians need to appeal to a broad consensus, it's worth emphasizing that it's easier for them to do this when non-politician leaders and advocates are pushing for even bolder goals-- thereby allowing the politicians to position themsevles as "centrists" and consensus builders.

Which makes Dem leaders' positioning on the minimum wage, at least as detailed in this NY Times story a few days ago, look absolutely stupid. Apparently with the Dem leaders pushing a position of raising the minimum wage to $7.25 per hour, the Economic Policy Institute was pressured to drop a public recommendation for the rate to be raised to $8 per hour:

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Today, the Wall Street Journal ran the tenth article in its series on “Poverty: The Search for New Solutions” – this one focusing on what appear to be significant gains in the United Kingdom in reducing poverty. In reading the piece, which attributes the improvements to adoption of a minimum wage and tax credits for the working poor similar to those in the U.S., I expected to find some analysis of the racial composition of poverty in Great Britain along with a discussion of the degree to which minority groups are residentially isolated from whites there compared to here. But race isn’t mentioned at all (though there is an on-line graph showing that the percentage of whites who are in the lowest income quintile is substantially below the level for various other ethnic groups).

Then I went back and looked at the other nine articles in the series to find that only two of them even mention race. One focuses on Wade Horn’s marriage-promotion charade. The other, titled “In Poverty, An Old Debate: Who is At Fault?,” includes only a single reference to race: “If liberal Michael Harrington's ‘The Other America’ had been the defining text for the 1960s, then Mr. Murray's 1984 ‘Losing Ground’ sought to play that role in the 1980s. Assailing the programs of the 1960s as failures, he argued that welfare gave poor people, particularly inner-city blacks, incentives to shun work and marriage.” But that’s it.

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One of the tactics used by those determined to sink the Baker-Hamilton report's endorsement of immediate US engagement to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is bluntly illustrated by Charles Krauthammer in his Washington Post column.

His point is simple. What does the Israeli-Palestinian conflict have to do with the carnage in Iraq?

Here's Krauthammer. "Baker thinks that if only the Israelis would surrender to Arab demands, all would be well in the Middle East…. Okay. Imagine that there is peace between Israel and the Arabs. No, imagine an even better solution from the Arab point of view -- an earthquake that tomorrow swallows Israel whole and sinks it…into the Mediterranean. Does anyone imagine that the Shiites stop killing Sunnis? "

That's it, in a literal nutshell. And this take is repeated again and again in neo-conservative circles.

And it is a flat-out misrepresentation.

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Here is my exchange with David on the concert of democracies proposal. He is very critical of the idea. We do agree, however, on this: it is America’s more general orientation toward the world – and whether it can ever again operate as a benign hegemon – that is critical in determining the ultimate shape and success of post-Bush reform of global governance. If the next administration simply proposes a concert of democracies but does not propose a broader agenda for tackling global problems, such as global warming, and recommit itself to collective action, the U.S. will grow increasingly estranged from the world -- even the democratic world.

Dear John,

I've been following your concert of democracies debate on America Abroad with great interest. If I may put my own two cents in. . .

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We haven't discussed agriculture subsidies much here at Warren Reports. This Washington Post piece is interesting. Federal farm subsidies from price guarantees and other programs are going to the wealthiest farmers. Not only do these programs make little economic sense and undermine our position in international trade negotiations; they are a gross misallocation of badly needed resources. If Congressional Democrats are serious about re-establishing pay-as-you-go budgeting (which I hope they are), dramatically scaling back subsidies for wealthy farmers is one source of cuts to support proposed legislative programs.

In this morning's NYT, David Cloud favorably contrasts incoming Robert M. Gates, shmoozing with soldiers and asking their advice over breakfast in Iraq, with the disgraced, outgone Rumsfeld. Gates, Cloud writes, breakfasted yesterday with a half-dozen enlisted soliders, and "listened patiently." "Where Mr. Rumsfeld was volcanic and opinionated," Cloud tells his readers, "Mr. Gates has come across as humble and open-minded."

Glad to hear it. But if you were looking for a Times report that associated "aloof," "volcanic," or "opinionated" with "Rumsfeld" while he was in office, you won't find it. I just looked. Rummaging through LexisNexis, I did find one "opinionated"--"fiercely opinionated," in fact--in an article that also mentioned Rumsfeld. That one referred to Al Jazeera reporters, in a magazine piece by Fouad Ajami.

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This week on TPMCafé’s America Abroad, the bloggers are talking about ... a Concert of Democracies, Iraq, the Transatlantic Relationship and Saudi Threats. My full summary is after the break.

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The ISG is already dead on arrival to many. The neo-cons have launched a relentless attack – see the AEI’s “Choosing Victory” plan, Gaffney on the “Iraq Surrender Group,” the NY Post’s "Surrender Monkeys," Perle, Kristol, et al. Democratic responses have not provided the kind of strategic defense of the ISG Report that would be smart both politically and in policy terms.

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One of IAVA's most thoughtful members is Ray Kimball, who served in Iraq as an aviation officer for the Army. I offer to you a fantastic piece by Ray discussing all the recent hollow talk of troop numbers and increasing the size of the military. I am sure you will find it interesting.

Now that the President has officially gotten behind the idea that we need a larger Army and Marine Corps (and better late than never, I say), it's worth casting some thought to just who and what those extra warm bodies should be.

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It now looks like the administration has adopted the surge strategy as its mantra. Simply put it means no new political road map for Iraq in place of the “national unity government” formula that has so far failed (has not delivered on the insurgency but has managed to alienated the Shias, and has actually caused more rather than less sectarian violence since the U.S. adopted it); going it alone (ignoring ISG’s recommendation to talk to the neighbors); and putting more boots on the ground. This last item deserves special attention. The language of the administration suggests that the surge will be used to fight radical groups and sectarian militias—Sunni ones and especially Shia militias and death squads associated with Muqtada al-Sadr. But listen closely; what they mean is that surge is in fact meant to finish off Sadr. And there lies the danger.

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I've been as disappointed as many other progressive bloggers with Obama's bad votes on tort reform and seeming trimming of rhetoric to "centrist" sensibilities. But in November Harpers, Obama is quoted as making an important point about why progressives can't replicate the narrow political majority strategies of the rightwing:

“My argument,” Obama says, “is that a polarized electorate plays to the advantage of those who want to dismantle government. Karl Rove can afford to win with 51 percent of the vote. They’re not trying to reform health care. They are content with an electorate that is cynical about government. Progressives have a harder job. They need a big enough majority to initiate bold proposals.”

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I just watched Hillary Clinton on "the View." And I realized something.
Every time she lets go a little (like when she jogged into the room), she is very appealing.
And every time she discusses things like engaging in "a national conversation" about whatever the hell it was, she is terrible.

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I just finished my second cup of the morning, which means it's time for the House Brew. (Note to self: the "coffee" they sell on the street for 65 cents is cheap for a reason.)

So what's new?

At Election Central, Greg Sargent has been all over future '08 GOPpers efforts to make themselves right-wing-friendly. Giuliani is trying to hide the past (wives, kids, divorces) and evidence just keeps coming on Romney's troubling past of reasonableness. Also...

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The New York Times' latest piece in their series on pension funds highlights the dangerous practice of using pension fund money to pay for retiree healthcare. Apparently, the booming stock returns of the late 90's provided governments enough "excess" in pension funds to start paying retiree health costs from the same pool of money. This worked well until the market crash and skyrocketing health care costs combined to jeopardize the financial health of these pensions.

The Chicago Transit Authority's pension fund represents one of the most dire examples: "A recent study showed that the plan, which covers nearly 20,000 people, could run out of money for retiree health care in early 2007 — and that the money to pay pensions could be gone by 2012."

Pension managers are likely to try to solve this problem by putting more of their funds' assets in hedge funds. Let's hope they pick carefully and avoid the next Amaranth...

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By now TPM readers know that I think Barack Obama is the most exciting prospect for the Presidency that we've had since RFK's death. But I also know that I don't know much about his specific stands on foreign policy issues and, particularly, the one I care most about, the Middle East.

In his latest column in New York Observer, the fine author and columnist, Phil Weiss, raises the possibility that Obama is no different than the other mainstream Democrats in not questioning whether our current policies are good for America or Israel.

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From the oboe in the back row, still playing flat, now on the politics of the Concert of Democracy as well as the policy aspects --- metaphor starting to be a stretch, but figured I’d stick with it once more.

Jim and John and others have made good policy points in favor of the Concert of Democracies, but they don’t get me, at least, to net positive. But on this post I want to focus on the politics.

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So President Bush has basically decided that more troops are the answer in Iraq and against terrorism generally (GWOT, long war, whatever the latest labeling). I know reading and analysis are selective and limited in this White House, but they might want to read George Packer’s article in the current New Yorker on one of their own leading strategists who stresses both how flawed the strategy is in ways that are not going to be fixed by more troops, and overall sees the military component as no more than one-fourth of any overall counterinsurgency/counterterrorism strategy.

Take-aways: they’re getting the military piece wrong; and they’re still missing the other pieces. And this from an in-house expert (David Kilcullen, an Australian and thus more independent, but still a key official). They also would do well even to browse today’s paper:

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George Macartney (1737-1806) was perhaps the Westerner most famously rejected by the Chinese, but Hank Paulson and Ben Bernanke are making a good run for his record. Earl Macartney, the first British envoy to China (then, as now, one of the two biggest economies in the world) led a Paulson-sized delegation to the Qianlong Emperor in 1793. His man-of-war had 64 cannon, demonstrating the might of the First Industrial Revolution to a country that had in fact invented gunpowder. He refused to kowtow, just as Mr. Bernanke declined to admit the existence of the terrifying fiscal deficit, the near absence of savings in the United States, the waste of two trillion dollars in Iraq, the crumbling American infrastructure, the growing income inequality in the United States.

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In Forging a World of Liberty Under Law, Anne-Marie and I propose the creation of a Concert of Democracies. This is a very old idea, dating at least as far back as Immanuel Kant’s vision of a league of republican nation-states. Kant played billiards in college for money but he had a very non-billiard ball model in his head about how democracies should best organize their external affairs. Kant was dead for over one hundred and fifty years before his idea emerged semi-triumphant, as it did after World War II in the “free world” political order built in the shadow of the Cold War.

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Thanks to Bruce for weighing in with his skepticism about a Concert of Democracies. It will come as no surprise that as thoughtful as his arguments were they did not persuade me to recant what Ivo and I wrote in the American Interest. But perhaps I can still persuade him—or a few of our readers.

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The House Brew is back to keep you up to date on what's new at TPMCafe. Lots new to talk about today, so let's get to it.

First off, America Abroad is welcoming Vali Nasr to their conversation. Nasr, an expert on political Islam who just published an important book on the "Shia Revival," starts things off by answering the question: "Should We Worry About the Saudi Threats?" (the answer, it seems, is yes). Meanwhile...

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The U.S. Election Assistance Commission released a report earlier this month claiming there is “no consensus” on the existence or pervasiveness of voter fraud. That’s a rather curious conclusion, especially since the EAC earlier released a status report on the research it commissioned, which conveyed that “there is widespread but not unanimous agreement that there is little polling place fraud, or at least much less than is claimed, including voter impersonation, ‘dead’ voters, noncitizen voting, and felon voters.” Other findings from the earlier status report that don’t appear in the final version: “Most people believe that false registration forms have not resulted in polling place fraud…,” “On balance, more researchers find [polling place fraud] to be less of a problem than is commonly described in the political debate,” “There is much evidence, and as much concern, about structural forms of disenfranchisement as about intentional abuse of the system,” “Deceptive practices, e.g. targeted flyers and phone calls providing misinformation, were a major problem in 2004,” “Voter intimidation continues to be focused on minority communities….,” and “There was only one self-evident instance of a non-citizen registering to vote.”

So, what do you suppose might be going on here?

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I can't stand seeing those ridiculous polls of all Democrats telling us that Hillary is #1, Obama #2, and the rest hovering in nowhere land.

Those polls are absolutely worthless as they are (1) name recognition contests and (2) national, rather than polls of primary states.

Obviously, if those early national polls mattered, Joe Lieberman would have won the '04 nomination. He didn't win a single primary or place higher than third.

He was not nominated.

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These are nervous times for Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom appears to have thrown its customary caution to the wind. In Opinion pieces, through leaks and in face-to-face talks with the Vice President who was hastily summoned to Riyadh, Saudis are expressing their deep frustration with the turn of events. Their long investment in Lebanon is coming undone, Iraq is breaking up into a hostile Shia unite and a potentially troublesome Sunni “al-Qaedaland”, both sharing borders with the Kingdom. More worrisome, the Shia-Sunni conflict in Iraq has somehow metamorphosed into a broader Saudi-Iranian competition at a time when Iran seems to hold most of the cards—in Iraq and Lebanon, and over the Palestinian issue. Iran is emerging as a hegemon with nuclear capability at a time when U.S. staying power in the region is open to question. Saudis fear an aggressive Iran, but perhaps fear even more an opening in US-Iran relations—which would then confirm Iranian status in the Persian Gulf and relegate them to second-class regional status. Not a surprise that King Abdullah has objected to U.S.-Iran talks.

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"On the seventh day the Lord rested, but before that he did, he squatted over the side of England and what came out of him... was Ireland. No offense son." -- Bill the Butcher

Karl Marx said the worker has no country, but he was wrong. A country's government can be very useful in supplying essential goods and services not forthcoming by other means. Workers need this sort of help more than the wealthy. Our question is how to regard the needs of workers with U.S. citizenship vis-a-vis those without.

The populist tradition, subject of my incessant bloviation on this site, is not helpful in this endeavor. I must admit that U.S. populism -- my favorite, the old-fashioned 19th century kind -- is shot through with nativism, religious prejudice, and racism. Andy Jackson, who murdered Native Americans with abandon, was an early populist hero. So too was slave-owner and slave-diddler Thomas Jefferson. On immigration, we need some populist revisionism, perhaps under the leadership of the Afro-Jewish Peoples Party. (Our slogan: El pueblo contra los poderosos!)

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One of my closest friends is a professional violinist, and as every musician knows, there is no concert without a great deal of politics.

Bruce's point here is therefore very pertinent. But I must respectfully disagree with where he comes out.

For a progressive politician, ranking national security priorities should offer two things:

One, a hard-headed assessment of our top threats and challenges, and how he or she will address them--to prove seriousness of purpose and the necessary toughness on national security. Two, a vision of progress that offers hope, optimism, and a show of how America can lead as part of a team.

The latter is an indespensible part of a progressive presidential candidate's political portfolio. It is that vision, that show of difference between the left and the right in our view in what will keep our nation secure, that the country is hungry for. It also offers a middle way between unilateralism (leading with no team) and the permission-slip style multilateralism that the electorate tells pollsters they prefer, but then votes against time after time. Being a quarterback within a like-minded team provides a positive role for America, within a framework that could actually achieve results (and pragmatic Americans like results).

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Regardless of your feelings or beliefs about sending more U.S troops to Iraq, you must accept the painful truth that anything we do to salvage or strengthen the existing Shia-dominated government in Iraq redounds to the benefit of Iran. If we weigh in on the side of the Sunni insurgents we run a serious risk that the Shias will attack us in strength and, at least for the short time, cut our supply lines that run through the heart of Shia territory. Moreover, anything we do to militarily challenge Iran will weaken our influence in Iraq and jeopardize the mission of our forces in Iraq.

George Bush has made his choice and it is calamitous. He rejected out of hand the proposal to "Go Home". And dismissed the "Go Long" course of action, which would have emphasized counterinsurgency, public works vice combat, and diplomatic overtures to Iran and Syria. Instead, he has thrown his weight behind "Go Strong".

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Each year around this time, we see a spate of stories about skyrocketing college tuition rates. Here on Warren Reports, we’ve worried about the resulting debt-burden for those in the lower and middle class, who may or may not earn enough to offset the costs.

But this article in last week’s New York Times turns conventional wisdom on its head. Turns out that when colleges hike up prices, their market share goes up! That’s right – since students and their parents have no real means of comparing colleges according to educational quality, they instead resort to the bottom line. If its pricier, then surely it must be better!

If you were on the board of trustees and were facing this reality, what would you do? Hmm – do we want to have less money, less prestige, and fewer top students? Or, shall we jack up tuition again this year?

Below the fold -- who does this really help and hurt? And is this a case-study in educational competition gone awry?

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WSJ - Blair Makes Surprise Trip to Iraq Amid Another Mass Kidnapping

Or, in English, Prime Minister Blair said the top priority for the international community is to keep terrorists from defeating democracy. This is as a matter of morality, self-interest, and pragmatic statecraft a terribly mistaken premise. It is also, as it happens, a poor man's version of the Bush policy, and nothing is worse than that as foreign policy.

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In profit-oriented philanthropy, corporations pursue their charitable endeavors through profit-making entities (Google.org appears to be the prototype, but eBay founder Pierre Omidyar’s Omidyar Network embraces a similar concept). The traditional categories of “commerce, capitalism and philanthropy” no longer fit a “new generation of social problems or market opportunities,” and promising, pioneering initiatives in the corporate sector are “blurring” the division of labor between the for-profit and non-profit sectors. Amidst all the excitement, progressives must endeavor not to lose sight of the key responsibility of governments to respond to our world’s most pressing problems of poverty; inadequate water, sanitation and healthcare, and global warming.

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This piece is not about Jimmy Carter's new book. I have already posted about that. Today the book is the Washington Post's #2 bestseller, the NY Times #7, and Amazon's #6. It is the most successful book ever by the former President and has afforded him more air time to discuss foreign policy issues than at any time since he left office. "Palestine, Not Apartheid" is a smash it. Mazal Tov, Mr. President.

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