Hard Thinking on Iran -- II
Taking up Rachel's challenge to think hard about about Iran, our America Abroad colleague Michael Levi and I have recently described the present dilemma. Talks are a long shot, but really the only chance to put the brakes on Iran's nuclear program. The current U.S.-EU strategy is to offer talks only if Iran suspends nuclear enrichment. That's a principled position. The problem is it hasn't worked. And going through the UN, the present alternative, has been a diversion, which puts international divisions into bold relief. Levi and I propose instead returning to the transatlantic track; the United States and Europe would agree on targeted sanctions outside the United Nations and, on that basis, the United States would join Europe in agreeing to return to talks. It is not appeasement to talk to Iran, as the ubiquitous James Baker has been saying. And it is a "historically peculiar" idea to view diplomacy and sanctions as mutually exclusive. The trick is in getting the mix right.



















Lee-
Let me step back, what is the genesis of the idea that to talk is appeasement? Why is that such a hard and fast rule?
Don't those who want to negotiate, or at least talk, with Iran have to address that point with those who want conditions met prior to talks?
December 9, 2006 1:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem is neither the US nor the EU have given Iran a reason to stop pursing nuclear technologies.
The famous Ghandi story is: "my son admires you, can you ask him to stop eating sugar. Ghandi thought for a moment and said, I'll be back in a week. In a week, Ghandi came back and asked her son to stop eating sugar. The mother asked, why did you have to wait a week? and Ghandi said, I had to stop eating sugar first!
The leaves the question "Is the US and/or EU being hypocritical?" unanswered.
Iran is a sovereign nation and doesn't it have the right to pursue it's economic interests?
Why can't the US and/or the EU live up to their standard?
December 9, 2006 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
The United States needs to normalize relations with Iran if for no other reason than to establish a modicum of independence from the Israeli zionists who, in the words of Eric Margolis of the Toronto Sun, whave turned the U.S. government into a "pack of trained, barking seals." The Iranian people do not dislike America or Americans, in general, and America has no reason on earth not to put aside past grievances -- mostly due to our overthrowing Iraninan governments when our oil boys demanded it -- and get on with establishing a mutually beneficial relationship with seventy-plus million people. Israel will hate this, of course, which only adds frosting on the cake, in my book.
Oh, for the good old days when Secretary of State James Baker would say of the obnoxious, interferring Israeli Lobby: "Fuck 'em. They didn't vote for us."
December 9, 2006 3:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the US and Iran start talking, then Israel will be left in the cold. Israel doesn't want that, so their Israel-First Neocons will scream "Appeasement!" everytime the US actually dares pursue its own interests in the Mideast . . .
December 9, 2006 7:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Principled position" ?? Really?
Lets see now - we (the US) have consistently flouted every single international commitment and obligation imposed on us by the NPT, we have openly and officially declared that we can and will nuclear first strikes against even non-nuclear states, we have totally turned a blind eye to Israel's nuclear arsenal and have now decided to make an "exception" to the NPT when dealing with India, and our President has declared that nuking Iran is an "option on the table" in BLATANT violatoin of the UN Charter and other provisions of international law which prohibit even the threat of nuclear attacks - we have systematically prevented Iran from OPENLY and LEGALLY aquiring the civilian nuclear technology that Iran was entitled to in 1983 by pressuring the IAEA to cut its technical assistance program to Iran, and continued to sabotage all of Iran's attempts to legally acquire the civilian enrichment technology from other countries such as Argentina and Spain and China - all in blatant violation of the NPT - all EVEN THOUGH we had supported and encouraged Iran's nuclear program in the first place because it makes perfect economic sense - not to mention that we are criminally complicit in the use of WMDs against Iran because we armed, financed and supported Saddam Hussein and gave chemical weapons precursors (and later even anthrax) to him and provided him with targetting intelligence to deploy his WMDs against the Iranian who DID NOT use chemical weapons against Iraq in return even though they were legally entitled to do so -- and then we shot down their CIVILIAN AIRLINER inside IRANIAN AIRSPACE and then lied about it -- and yet you have the AUDACITY to claim that trying deprive the nation and people of Iran of their SOVEREIGN "INALIENABLE" RIGHTS AS RECOGNIZED BY THE NPT is a "principled" position? LOL!!! Do you really think the Iranian people are fools? Do you really think that they love their country any less? Do you think ANY Iranian government is going to sell out their people's international rights and expect to survive?
I suggest you educate yourself about Iran's history and look up the last time that foreign powers gave ultimatums to the Iranians and tried to strong-arm them to give up their rights - yes, this is an old story. The British and the Russians were trying to force the Iranian to give up control over their railroads and ports, their tobacco and later their oil. Iranians have long historical memories and they resent the hell out of hypocritical liars and their pathetic "principled positions." To this day, the politicians who gave in to such demands are considered traitors.
The fact of the matter is that Israels is the problem of the US, and it is Israel which is pushing for the US to attack Iran, just as Israel pushed the US to attack Iraq. Its about time this was acknowledged.
December 9, 2006 7:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Lee-
Clarify for me.
Doing a side deal with the Europeans will avoid the Chinese and Russians who are the least likely to move ahead with stronger sanctions? What are the consequences for our relations with those two? For example, does it complicate efforts to get the Chinese to do the right thing in Darfur?
December 9, 2006 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
hmmm. While I guess one could get literal about it and say that the exact word "Iran" does not occur here, I did get a return of "about 21,000" on this google search. Your quoted statement strikes me as more than a bit presumptuous as worded, and I suspect might make the rest of your argument rant fall on deaf ears. And may we ask: your documented expertise in Iranian diplomacy, history, culture and political leadership stems from?
December 9, 2006 9:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Would joining the US in imposing sanctions on Iran outside the UN sit well with the populations of most of our Europeon allies? I'm guessing that except for the UK(?), they need the UN cover and that the idea of challenging Russia and China on that level is quite risky. Wouldn't all states signing on have to do so as individual nations? Or would the EU have to ratify such an agreement? Cumbersome.
Hell, we need the UN cover. It's the most efficient mechanism in place to get a sanctions agreement and then Iran won't comply, etc. If there's to be another war or two, time is ticking.
December 9, 2006 9:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are talks and there are talks. It seems likely to me that this administration has no back-channel contacts. These need to be started. These would be talks as in coming up with a deal. Then, who knows.
Is there an example of sanctions having actually worked to alter behavior, aside from inventing ways to circumvent them? Responsible states avoid them; irresponsible states pass the pain on to the inhabitants.
December 9, 2006 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is getting frankly ridiculous.
Iran will get nukes and there's nothing the US/EU can do about it.
Talk of sanctions is laughable.
Planet "America Abroad" seems inhabited by aliens who only too rarely seem to be visiting planet earth.
December 9, 2006 10:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Does this forum accept truth and interesting ideas only from academics and pols? Perhaps this is something else I missed in the by-laws.
December 10, 2006 3:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
artappraiser you've taken it upon yourself recently to police civility, but politics is a rough business. Now you try to do the same for error, basing your response on nothing more than job titles and appeals to authority.
Feinstein is speaking the language he knows, and arguing from positions more than facts. He's an expert on American foreign policy not on Iran, but he speaks as if one were de facto the other. That's absurd and at this point should be seen as such. Patriotism is the last refuge of a scoundrel, and nationalism is a strategy for winning office not a foreign policy.
December 10, 2006 10:35 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ever think the ad hominen approach towards contributors and other commenters alike discourages more people from participating than it encourages?
And you think yellin' at Lee is going to make him take you seriously? Being a diplomat, he's probably seen it before and knows one of the best ways to deal with that: no response.
December 10, 2006 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't we also need the Chinese to help with North Korea and perhas down the road Pakistan?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
December 10, 2006 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
The source of my extensive expertise on Iran - more than yours and more than the authors - would surprise you, but is irrelevant. Anyone who has a basic familiarity with the history of Iran - which apparently doesn't include you - knows about the history of the British-Russian "Ultimatums" and the Tobacco Riots etc. And I assure you, that even if you're ignorant about it, IRanians know their history quite well. Like I said, this isn't the first time that foreign powers have tried to deprive Iran of her rights, and Iranians resent the hell out of foreigners and their "principled positions" who have tried to cheat them.
Here's a start: read "The Strangling of Persia: Story of the European Diplomacy and Oriental Intrigue That Resulted in the Denationalization of Twelve Million Mohammedans" by Morgan Shuster which is available in bookstores or from Mage ( http://www.mage.com/SP.html )
Yes, I know actually reading a book is more difficult than relying on the received wisdom of some incompetent pundits who have never actually been to Iran and don't even speak the language, and it is much harder than relying on google but hey, give it a try. Or you can take the easy way and Wiki it: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgan_Shuster
December 10, 2006 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
If this is addressed to me, I'm afraid I don't understand your point.
December 10, 2006 11:08 AM | Reply | Permalink
Trying to characterize this as an "ad hominem" attack is a convenient way to avoid responding when you have no response.
December 10, 2006 11:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Wish others would, too. Otherwise this site will end up just like many others people came here to escape.
This point has been addressed many times before:
Josh claims more recently that everyone here knows this since he has pressed it. Obviously not.
It was hass who was speaking as if he were the defacto expert on Iran. Since he did so, and implied Mr. Feinstein didn't know shit about Iran, I'd like to know what his qualifications are. Otherwise, wouldn't it be a better tactic to say something on the order of "this citizen would like to know how much you consider the history and culture of Iran in your opinion." It's the attack mode, always trying to accelerate things into a wrestling match. Mr. Feinstein did not attack anyone in his post, why do we need to introduce adversial framing?
You're right I am not interested in adversial commentary. Josh goes out of his way to bring diplomatic think tank types to America Abroad and those who use the "attack them for being what they are" mode basically says to me that you don't really want them posting here. Then why use the site? Either you want to engage in their framing or you don't. Attack and disagree are two different things. I'm very interested in reading people challenge the thoughts of these contributors, and strongly, but I am not interested in rants by someone anonymous who thinks he knows how to run the world imply that they are stupid and they could do their job so much better. It's all in tone and approach.
December 10, 2006 11:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
What my qualifications are, are irrelevant to the point. So stop trying to evade the point and substance of my post by raising that strawman argument. ANYONE who knows the slightest about Iranian history knows about the history of how the British and the Russians - and later the US - have tried to cheat Iranians, and I provided a book where you can start to educate yourself on the topic too. And today, ALL Iranians suppor their government's nuclear program. Its the one thing they all agree on. And this shouldn't come as a surprise - after all, suppose the tables were reversed and the Iranians demanded that the US drop all forms of scientific research into, say, virology, on the specious grounds that virology "could be use to make WMDs" - what would the reaction of Americans be to such an Iranian demand? Why assume that Iranians would react any differently? As much as the author of this nonsense piece and the other "experts" have been talking about "carrots and sticks" etc - the fact remains that Iranians love their country too and are not donkeys to be led about by the Bush administration's carrots and sticks. You have to start respecting other people - tough, I know, but give it a try.
December 10, 2006 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Ever think the ad hominem approach towards contributors and other commenters alike discourages more people from participating than it encourages?"
If someone refutes a ridiculous argument that person has no right to snark? It would seem hard to avoid. How much contempt do JMM and the rest of the official writers here pour on right wing arguments in general and even on those who make them? Or is a biting sarcasm less cruel? If what Hass wrote were written in response to something by some idiot at The Corner would you have had the same response? It reads like something by one of the Harvard boys at Tapped.
"And you think yellin' at Lee is going to make him take you seriously?"
I have no interest in Mr Feinstein taking me seriously, but since I don't take him very seriously its a fair trade. As it is I'm writing for the other readers of this forum.
"Being a diplomat..."
I can name-drop from the Johnson administration, in fact from the beginnings of our involvement in Vietnam, on both sides to the present.
Do I have your permission now?
December 10, 2006 7:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
I doubt that any US-European sanctions regime will be either sustainable, policeable or effective. But if American pride forbids us from entering into strightforward negotiations with the Iranians without first mounting some kind of phony-balony threat, then by all means let's threaten away, if that's what it takes.
Here's another possibility: we could announce to the world that we have trained our magical western tractor beams on the heavens, and unless we get what we want from the Iranians we plan to drag the Jovian moons out of their orbits and rain them down upon Teheran, Isfahan and Qom.
Or here's another possibility: we just cut the crap and negotiate with the Iranians without the preperatory drama.
Let's help our president reach out and touch some Iranians. Of course there is no Iranian Embassy in the US right now. But the Prez can put in a call at any one of the many Iranian embassies around the world where there are English-speakers on staff. Here is the phone number for the one in Norway: (+47) 23 27 29 60
Or he can go right to the top. Here is the contact form at the Supreme Leader Khamenei's website.
December 10, 2006 10:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let me step back, what is the genesis of the idea that to talk is appeasement? Why is that such a hard and fast rule?
irishkg,
Given that that the US has invaded and occupied two neighboring countries, funded terrorist groups that have worked to subvert Iran's government, threatened sanctions against Iran and placed Iran on an "axis of evil", I can see why Iranians might think negotiating with the US constitutes appeasement. But I don't think that should stand in their way.
Ohhhh ... maybe Lee and others are talking about the US appeasing Iran? Right! There should be absolutely no appeasment! The US should not negotiate with Iran until Iran has withdrawn its armies from Pola..., um, Czecho..., um, Azerbai..., um, um ... Hey, where are those Iranian armies anyway?
December 10, 2006 10:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is every body deaf and blind around here? Iran has made a perfectly sensible offer to quit enrichment that has been totally ignored by the U.S. An Iranian seat on the Security Council in exchange for their enrichment program.
That offer, made publicly on Nov. 8, was not even recognized by the U.S. government, though at least two of our Asian allies had urged President Ahmadinejad to make the offer. What does it take to get talks started with the U.S.? Will Iran have to escalate to threatening sanctions? Cutting off oil exports to Europe this winter would be far more devastating to Europeans than to Iran.
December 11, 2006 1:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
Iran has indeed made several offers that would have resolved any GENUINE concerns about WMD proliferation, and all of them have been ignored by the US and the EU3 however to my knowledged none of them included a demand for a seat on the UNSC.
However, Iran's offers did include several provisions that go well beyond anything Iran is obligated to do under the NPT, and did include the offer of opening Iran's enrichment program to international investors, thus ensuring that no material could be "secretly" used to make bombs. This matched a suggestion by the IAEA itself too.
The US and EU insist, however, that no Iranian should ever even have the knowledge of nuclear enrichment technology, even for 100 percent civilian purposes, because it "could be" used to make bombs possibly one day. The same argument could of course be made about any advanced technology so in short the US and EU want to have a veto over Iran's technological progress.
Read more about Iran's offer here:
http://www.iht.com/bin/print_ipub.php?file=/articles/2006/04/05/opinion/edzarif.php
December 11, 2006 2:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
How ironic, this thread about whether Iran is rational and well-intentioned enough to engage in negotiations, when the current news out of Iran, not even mentioned here, is an attempt to re-write (read falsify) history itself.
December 12, 2006 10:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe the way for Holocaust scholarship to gain some traction with the denialists in the region would be to actually show up for that conference, debate it, and bury the deniers in the mountain of facts.
Of all the debates to run away from, I don't know why it should be taboo to embarrass a bunch of bullshit artists in front of their own audience.
December 12, 2006 7:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
When the Israeli govt falsley abuses the memory of the Holocaust to justify the murder and mass explusion of Palestinians, you can't complain when it results in disrepute.
And Israel's long-standing claim that "There are no such things as Palestinians" is what, exactly? Or the US's claims that there were WMDs in Iraq? Talk about "falsification"!
December 13, 2006 2:45 PM | Reply | Permalink