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The Need for Hard Thinking on Iran

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Kofi Annan, in a little noticed conversation with Jim Hoagland , mentioned he was deeply concerned that the West was underestimating Iran's resolve to push forward with its nuclear program.

Juliette noticed a similar worry in talking to leaders in the Middle East, who suggested that if Iran continues, they will have to go nuclear as well.

And today, a tiny news item deep inside the Post mentioned the failure of the 6 main powers (including lynchpin Russia) to draft a UN resolution that would have instituted tough sanctions against Iran.

If you weren't worried before, now might be a good time.

Iranians I have spoken with--secular, worldly businesspeople flying in and out of New York and London--are dead set on pursuing the bomb for reasons of national pride. Others certainly have more nefarious interests, but the combination of pride, security, and power projection is a hard nut to crack--and suggests that the bomb is going to move forward, leading to nuclear proliferation throughout the world's most volatile region.

Any good progressive might be more than a little concerned that as this threat progresses, the one option on the table is the neoconservative answer-to-all-problems--bomb the SOBs.

If anything could be worse than our current quagmire in Iraq, bombing Iran might just get us there. The preponderance of evidence suggests that we would not destroy the nuclear program--Iran learned from the Israeli attack on Iraq's burgeoning program in the 1980s that it was worth it to hide its own program underground. Meanwhile, attacking a proud country of 70 million people opens up a second front in an already unwinnable war, with an American military that is battle-tired, overstretched, and simply unavailable for deployment when airstrikes brought the inevitable repercussions.

Meanwhile, our troops would be vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed terrorists, as would Israel. And has anyone noticed Hezbullah's bid for power in Lebanon, which would give Iran another node of power to use against us? Not to mention turning a young, proud, currently pro-American population firmly against the U.S. for another generation.

It's not enough to decry bombing--when America gets scared, as it has every right to be, Americans are going to demand some sort of action. Bad as a failed state in Iraq is, a nuclear-armed Iran would be even more dangerous. We need some real thinking here.

If the West cannot get China and Russia on board with sanctions, and if our top diplomatic need from Iran is help on Iraq, we cannot expect much good to come from diplomacy. And airstrikes are insanity. Those of us deeply concerned that a country as dangerous as Iran not get the bomb had better start coming up with new options--fast.


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the one option on the table is the neoconservative answer-to-all-problems--bomb the SOBs. If anything could be worse than our current quagmire in Iraq, bombing Iran might just get us there. The preponderance of evidence suggests that we would not destroy the nuclear program--etc. etc...................................................(down to) Meanwhile, our troops would be vulnerable to attacks by Iranian-backed terrorists, as would Israel etc. etc......................(down to) Not to mention turning a young, proud, currently pro-American population firmly against the U.S. for another generation.

And OBTW killing an enormous number of people.

Seems like that's worth saying.

Maybe scared Americans should learn to get a grip and live with the prospect of a nuclear Iran.

Memo to the scaredy-cats: Pakistan with the bomb is much more dangerous than Iran with the bomb, so if you could stomach the former you'll be fine with the latter.

What is wrong with these commentators. The only difference I read between Kleinfeld and FreeRepublic/National Review is that she rejects the nuclear option, but the world outlook in terms of good and evil, axis of evil, is still the one Bush embraces. In the end this sort of commentary which leads nowhere (after all if Iran is the scourge of the earth and nuclear airstrikes are ruled out, and China and Russia do not accept the Kleinfeld/Bush world outlook) then it seems very few real options are left. After all if you rule out enough, then nothing is indeed left. And if she believes thinking fast will save the day, I would encourage her to think deeply rather than fast. I do not share her characterization of the regime and its threat. I think her hysteria will serve just as the liberal warhawk hysteria over Saddam's WMD's served to justify disastrous military action. I recall Curtis LeMay and MacArthur also calling the regimes they were fighting the devil and advocating no deals with commies and they only understand force. I guess negotiation with the regime in Iran is called for, recognizing some of its grievances (after all we dominated and oppressed Iranians, not the other way arouond, from 1954 up to the Iranian revolution). I do not think it is in the Iranian interest to attack us or Israel. It would be helpful if Kleinfeld could outline other than what Iran might do, some reasons why we might really expect it to do those unthinkable things; why is it in their interest? Project power with unused nuclear arms...that is the real threat Kleinfeld is concerned with.

Israel has the bomb and has been on nuclear alert more than once. Tehran under Khatami -and backed by Khamenei- offered a deal on nuclear issues across the region including Israel and israel and the US rejected it.
And Nobless O'B is right (though he's stealing my line!) that Pakistan is more unstable and dangerous than Iran, but somehow causes less panic.

In general the willingness to engage [sic] with our israel over its crimes and villify or at least pontificate over the crimes of their Iran, is disgusting. Of the two, Iran is by far the more interesting, with the greater possibilities for the future, politically and culturally. But "they" are foreign.

"It's not enough to decry bombing--when America gets scared, as it has every right to be, Americans are going to demand some sort of action."

Sober, responsible leadership would not get scared at the prospect of a nuclear Iran, nor woud it use Iran to scare its electorate.

The Cheney-Rumsfeld Administration realized too late that the invasion of Iraq and the failure of Reconstruction had basically elevated the Iranians to hegemonic power in the Persian Gulf region. They wanted an excuse to cut off Iran's legs, and came up with the expedient of hyping the Iranian nuclear threat.

Now, through clever diplomacy, they have pushed Iran into a deep national committment to obtain nuclear weapons.

American pundits, apparently, are too stupid to even remember a time, when nuclear non-proliferation rested on diplomatically convincing everyone everywhere that non-proliferation was in everyone's mutual best interests. Iran doesn't want Israel, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and American forces in the Persian Gulf to be in possession of nuclear weapons, but guess what? They don't get a choice about any of that. It is now in Iran's national interest to acquire nuclear weapons, and no amount of bullying is likely to deter them from the pursuit of their clear national interest.

American policy, under Cheney-Rumsfeld, has been to encourage proliferation and to make the use of nuclear weapons more likely. It succeeded.

All the earnest handwringing in the world won't make it better. Recognizing what the Cheney-Rumsfeld policies have been, and why they are so horribly bad, might help, by helping us recognize what U.S. policy should not be. But, I fail to see what this post did in that regard.

Interesing how you conflate a nuclear program with a nuclear bomb. FYI even the CIA has admitted that there's no sign of a nuclear weapons program in Iran.

I agree with Bruce.

Any attempt to "re-steer" the ship is practically impossible due to the complete dishonesty and failure of the American news media to be responsible journalists. Re-steering the ship (so to speak) requires as a precondition an open and thorough debate of ideas. That debate requires a a public delivery system. The news media must serve as that delivery system. But the news media cannot and will not because they too thoroughly incompetent and have no conception of professional responsibility. They just want to make money.

Khamanei is apparently quite sincerely opposed to nuclear weapons.
But he does not speak for everyone.

Re: And Nobless O'B is right (though he's stealing my line!) that Pakistan is more unstable and dangerous than Iran, but somehow causes less panic.

Pakistan's only real enemy or rival is India, which is already a nuclear power itself. The situation has the same MAD stability that the US-Soviet standoff had in the Cold War (which is not to say that error or folly could not trigger catastrophe, which was a Cold War risk too). The problem with Iran is that it has multiple enemies/rivals: the US, Iraqi Sunnis and Kurds, Turkey, the Saudis, Israel, even Russia and the Caucasus states. That makes a nuclear Iran, even one with good intentions, a lot more destabilizing than a nuclear Pakistan.

No the problem with Pakistan is that it's a dictatorship with a populatiion that includes a large number of religious fundamentalists supportive of the Taliban and sympathetic at various levels to Al Qaeda., and whose network is in close contact with the country's intelligence services. Pakistan is a politically unstable country with the bomb. Iran is a country run by intelligent cynics threatened by reformers from the right- Ahmadinejad- and more so from liberals. Other than that it is largely united in language and history, with a large middle class and a growing percentage of the population male and female having an advanced education. Iran is a mess, but I like Iran. Pakistan is a fucking disaster waiting to happen.
I'd be much happier if Iran had the bomb instead of pakistan.
much. Given Israel's nukes, at least one Islamic country in the region should have the bomb.

Re: Other than that it is largely united in language and history

History, maybe, but not language. About a quarter of Iran's population are Turkic-speaking Azeris. There are also large Arab, Baluchi, and Turkomen minorities.

On the larger question, I do not mean to imply that Pakistan is perfectly safe to be armed with nukes, only that the effect of a nuclear armed Pakistan is limited to its own region and the only nation that needs worry much about the possibility of Pakistani nukes falling on it is India-- which, as a nuclear power itself, can threaten massive retailiation. Now to be sure, political upheaval in Pakistan could indeed result in a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan and that's not a happy thing to contemplate. But even that ghastly outcome would be largely local to the two countries (and anyone else unlucky enough to be downwind-- Afghanistian, western China, maybe Nepal).
By focusing only on Iran's internal situation you are missing the effect on Iranian nukes on its neighbors, all of whom, save Russia and Israel, are currently non-nuclear. Given nukes in a non-nuclear neighborhood Iran is free to bully its neighbors with impunity (much as the Soviet Union was) until those neighbors get sick of it and nuclearize themselves. If India vs Pakistan is a dangerous potnetial, why isn't Iran vs Turkey vs Saudia Arabia vs Israel vs Russia vs Egypt? How do you find any stability in that mix. And oh yes, it's all sitting right on the world's lifeblood of oil supplies.
So absolutely not: a nuclear Iran is unacceptable. Thats doesn't mean I am endorsing Bushism, but I am endorsing the strongest possible moves by the internatioanl community short of outright war to prevent that end.

Re; Iran is a mess, but I like Iran.

I cannot believe anyone posting on this website likes an oppressive, brutal, patriarchal theocracy. The Mullahs make Pat Robertson look like Mother Jones.

"it is largely united in language and history"
It also has 20,000 jews. More than any other middle eastern country outside of Israel. It's also %90 Shia.

"Given nukes in a non-nuclear neighborhood Iran is free to bully its neighbors with impunity"
Israel has nukes and has bullied its neighbors with impunity.

You seem to have missed my point entirely. I'm not happy about Al Qaeda or it's defenders having access to nuclear material. That worries me much more than Iran.

I didn't say I like the mullahs, I said I like Iran. I'd rather debate politics in a cafe in Tehran than Tel Aviv. And the central division in the middle east is between Israel and its neighbors. Largely Israel's doing at this point.

Re: I didn't say I like the mullahs, I said I like Iran.

I happen to like Russia. Seriously: I speak the language, and I'm even an Orthodox Christian. But I did not like the Soviet Union bristling with nukes, and I'm not entirely pleased that there are so many of them still in that country today. (And for that matter I'm none too happy at the number of nukes in my own country).
I'll gladly join you in toasting the ancient and fabulous civilization east of the Zagros-- but that civilization and the world as a whole will be vastly better off without atomics roosting on its turquoise minarets.

The world as a whole will be vastly better off without the bomb, but as I said there are countries I worry about more than Iran. Russia would be one of them. Black market nukes worry me. You seem blasé if not oblivious.

And yet you seem to take this discussion more personally than I do; maybe it's a religious conflict you have with Islam. I have no interest in such things, especially when hidden behind false moral rhetoric. You're bullshitting me son.
It's boring.

Re: And yet you seem to take this discussion more personally than I do; maybe it's a religious conflict you have with Islam. I have no interest in such things, especially when hidden behind false moral rhetoric. You're bullshitting me son.

I do not have a "religious conflict" with Islam. I have a ideological conflict with any profoundly illiberal regieme which treats women as chattel, denies basic human rights, and executes people for heresy, apostacy, blasphemy, incorrect sexual orientation, etc. Again, I am absolutely astonished that anyone posting on a liberal website would be blase (your word) about such things.
Also, I'm not your son. Please drop the patronizing act. It's needlessly rude.

and Saudi Arabia treats its women like what? This chestnut is pulled out every time we are instructed to hate some country afresh. Under Saddam it is indisputable that women were much better treated than under our puppet government.

One more time - the CIA, the IAEA, and everyone else has admitted that there is in fact no evidence of a nuclear weapons program in Iran.

Ummm...considering how women's bodies are used to sell cars and soap here in the good ol' US of A, I wouldn't go around making that "treats women like chattel" statement. In fact there was a recent report that 9-year olds are now suffering from eating disorders.

On the other hand, women in Iran are now better edcuated than they have ever been, they comprise more than 60% of the student population, there are female legislators and vice-presidents, and married women in Islam have always been entitled to own their own property - not so in the West.

Both Israel and the US have formally and explicitly threatened Iran with attacks. In the case of the US, it has formally threatened Iran with a NUCLEAR FIRST STRIKE.

Who is a threat to whom?

The US has FORMALLY threatened Iran with a NUCLEAR FIRST STRIKE (read the Nuclear Defense Posture Review)

President Bush confirmed that nuking Iran is "an option on the table"

The US held Israel's jacket as Israel CRIMINALLY attacked and bombed Lebanon.

The US armed and financed Saddam's chemical weapons program and directed his attacks on Iran.

So, who is a threat to whom?

It must be nice to live in your Arab fantasyland. If the Lebanese did not want to be bombed they should have stopped Hezbollah from kidnapping Israeli soldiers, who apparently might be dead, and firing missiles at Israel.

It is sad reality but when Arabs act to murder Israelis they are going to die.

Daniel A. Greenbaum

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