Baker/Hamilton in Dubai
If there is, of course, anything animating the discussions at the Arab Strategy Forum amongst journalists, policymakers and academics it is, of course, Iran.
And while you all there will wake up to the news of the Baker/Hamilton Report, there is growing concern that even our Iran focus will leave other Arab states with no leverage as they try to manage its influence.
Saudi Arabia and Egypt are already making hints that if the Iranian nuclear issue is not resolved, they will proceed onward. An Arab audience here reminded several Americans that the Arab world has already lived with a nuclear threat (Israel, and it is a good point), and that, at least as David Ignatius said today, we are all still living through the legacy of the 79 Revoluation (a moment in history that has likely been too ignored by all of us).
But, as Lakhdar Brahimi from the UN reminds us today, America is looking for a miracle, and that the Arab worlds fear is that in our desires to talk to Iran (a notion that many find silly here), that we not forget the other neighbors in hte hood, as many of them have exceptional influence in this area, especially given the fears of "blowback" (where are all those fighters going to go after/if the Iraq war ends.)
And how to think of Iran is something that no one seems to have a good handle on. Ignatius quoted Kissinger today, a line I had not heard of, but that sounds right: Iran has to figure out if it is a nation or a cause. And if it is the latter, the Baker/Hamilton "lets talk" may be more difficult than we imagined.















First, would Juliette explain in clear words if Iran is complying with its obligations toward IAEA?
As for Arab states'fears, they had better enhance political and economic reforms to get the support of their people. The immediate threat is linked to the widening gap between the rulers and the populations that renders the future of the region unpredictable.
December 6, 2006 4:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Iran has to figure out if it is a nation or a cause."
The same could be asked of the United States as well as its necessary follow-up: what exactly is the "cause" the U.S. represents?
December 6, 2006 10:19 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who said stuffing all these hornets back in their nests wouldn't be interesting . . .
~OGD~
December 6, 2006 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink