Winners and Losers After John Bolton's Resignation
A former diplomat I greatly respect advised me to avoid dwelling on the John Bolton confirmation and to move on to new policy subjects. He wrote:
steve -- he's resigned. let it go. . .you have other and better causes, and it only makes you appear petty and vindictive to continue to harp on the issue. in your terms, you won... be gracious and move on.He's absolutely right -- and I have in fact tried to do this a number of times, but the administration was as unwilling to let go of the contest as were those who opposed Bolton's confirmation. I believe in graciousness after political battles involving non-elected officials just as much as genuine elections.
Despite a rather loud outcry from numerous TWN readers, I tipped my hat to Ambassador Bolton and wished him well after a post I wrote that was the first among blogs as well as mainstream journalism to call the end to the real battle for Bolton's 'confirmation.'
I want to do the same thing again. I do wish Ambassador Bolton and his family well. He is a brilliant person who cloaked his designs in a style of pugnaciousness and occasional bullying that served his ends -- though I think not as often the country's.
My problem with Ambassador Bolton was never his cosmetic behavior, it was the content of his views and policy objectives, and the numerous times in which he undermined or sabotaged fragile diplomatic efforts underway and conducted by his colleagues and direct superiors.
John Bolton, in my view, saw a significant portion of his job as not to achieve success at the United Nations but rather to set the UN up for failure.
I do hope that I one day get the chance to encounter John Bolton in a public forum and debate national policy with him as well as how civil society managed the debate about his nomination and confirmation process. I commit to be a gentleman and genuinely civil when that future meeting takes place.
Oddly enough, I have been paired increasingly frequently on radio programs and in public policy events with a good friend of John Bolton's from the American Enterprise Institute, Joshua Muravchik. I ran into Muravchik again today at the Arab Strategy Forum here in Dubai -- and Muravchik and I manage quite well a serious ongoing debate about tough policy differences and divergent world views.
I do hope that Ambassador Bolton and some of those who supported and opposed him during his service in the Bush administration maintain a respectable demeanor.
Now for a quick take on outstanding issues, winners and losers, and other thoughts on implications of the Bolton resignation:
1. John Bolton's resignation reflects a loss of ground by Jesse Helms' inspired 'pugnacious nationalists'. It is also a clear loss for Vice President Cheney and his loyal followers. Jim Lobe captures this quite well in a piece he has written tonight on Bolton.2. Bolton's resignation also hurts Condoleezza Rice in the short term because while she had to "manage" him more frequently than she liked -- often sending Undersecretary for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns to manage the most fragile diplomatic agendas -- Rice now has NO Deputy Secretary of State, and will soon face in January NO Counselor and NO Ambassador to the United Nations.
Losing Robert Zoellick, Philip Zelikow and John Bolton is an awful lot to lose without having clear successsors in place and ready to go. The already stretched thin Secretary of State will be stretched even thinner with Bolton's departure.
3. On the good side, if the White House and State Department get their mutual acts together, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is 'likely' to expedite at lightning speed reasonable, even partly controversial, nominees to both Bolton's UN position and to the Deputy Secretary position. This Bolton Battle won't be replayed soon. I think the incoming Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Joseph Biden will bend over backwards to help Rice get a full team back in place at State as fast as possible.
4. This has not been picked up by the press, but I believe that the theatrical dimensions of the Bolton resignation were designed to make it look like the President was giving up something he really, really wanted in order to encourage Dems to 'de-complexify' the confirmation process of Defense Secretary nominee Robert Gates. Watch for Dems who previously opposed Gates or had serious concerns about his Iran Contra involvement to ratchet down their concerns.
The President's dropping of Bolton may very well be designed to facilitate a fast confirmation process for Gates.
5. Who will succeed Bolton is unclear. I have written about Jim Leach in the past -- as well as many others including Paula Dobriansky and Zalmay Khalilzad.
I think Dobriansky has a strong chance of getting the job as she is respected around DC, is acceptable to both Rice and Cheney, and is not a complete rejection of John Bolton's views. She is neocon-friendly if not a true neoconservative, and she manages diplomacy and achieving America's diplomatic objectives well.
Jim Leach could also be extraordinary -- and Khalilzad could be an important asset there too as a Muslim envoy from America to an institution representing the nations of the world. He is also a well-experienced strategist and diplomat.
There are other choices I won't list here tonight as I think that these three are all qualified and realistic choices given the fact that George W. Bush is going to make the appointment.
6. Finally, it is important to remember that the Bolton Battle was not a true partisan struggle. It was one in which many Republicans covertly supported leading Democrats in the process -- and on the other side, some Democrats like Chuck Schumer and Ben Nelson openly advocated Bolton's confirmation.
Bolton did not get confirmed because of the failure of the White House to either unite the Republican caucus behind Bolton or to select a candidate that was easier for the whole Republican caucus in the Senate to accept. Republicans with a conscience stopped Bolton's confirmation process, with support from the Democrats who were in the minority.
This effort took about 21 months from the time Bolton was nominated for his current position.
It's been a long time. But again, I do insist on tipping my hat to Ambassador Bolton after this long fought campaign and wish him well.
I don't know if the story is true, but one reporter who works for one of the more right of center Northeast publications interviewed John Bolton some time ago and asked him "So are you aware of what the opposition is saying?"
Allegedly, Bolton replied "I tune into The Washington Note every morning."
I don't know if the story is in fact true -- but it was something I thought about often when writing the blog -- knowing that Ambassador Bolton would be reading it.
It's important to maintain balanced but tough debate in our society -- and now it's time to move on to the next big challenges.
-- Steve Clemons is Senior Fellow and Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation and publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note













OK. I'll bite. Clearly, Mr. Clemons, you want us all to know you'll take the high road in this political discussion. Very noble; very commendable and all that. I feel differently. Bolton and the Bush administration are not to my mind gentleman adversaries with a different rationale for what they do; by your take what they do is (of course) for the best interest of this country as they understand it. Bull. They have been in the gutter from day one causing the world, grief and misery and death and destruction and to a great extent destroying the comity and traditions (legal and otherwise) of this country; the only thing they hate more than their foreign "enemies" are their domestic opponents and everything has been geared to destroying their character, their livelihood and their freedom. Go tip your hat to Ambassador Bolton; maybe it will help you get a better job or help your career along in some way. I have no use for them or for our gentleman advocates from the respectable opposition.
December 4, 2006 5:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Victor, I feel exactly the same way as you do about Bolton and Bush. But I don't think Mr. Clemons is tipping his hat in the interest of helping his career. He is doing it despite, or even because of the way Bush et. al behave; it is the thing to do when your opponent resigns. It is the thing Bush et. al. should also have been doing prior to the mid-terms: being gracious in victory.
If I were in such a position, I would even tip my hat to Mssrs Cheney, Rumsfeld and Bush as I was indicting them for war crimes.
December 4, 2006 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve,
I'll say what you can't - Bolton is an arrogant bully.
Tom
December 4, 2006 6:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
If that's what It takes I'll promise to tip my hat to George W. Bush if he'll resign. Of course, after I tip my hat I'll give it to George & tell him to stuff it where the sun don't shine.
Tom
December 4, 2006 6:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Let's not forget bloodthirsty.
December 4, 2006 6:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve,
Bolton lives two blocks from me. We can go by and sing him some Christmas or Kwanza carols if you like.
December 4, 2006 7:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve- In #4 you ended by saying, The President's dropping of Bolton may very well be designed to facilitate a fast confirmation process for Gates.
What is to stop Bush from doing another recess appointment of Bolton? The usual repug modus operandi is to act like they are being conciliatory and then stab you in the back.
December 4, 2006 8:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Steve, your post is very high minded, and fair. Very fair.
I prefer driftglass.
I'm sure the shrieking harpy, aka Pammy, appreciates your graciousness.
December 4, 2006 9:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
If only I could be so high-minded. Me, I wish Bolton -- and I know he reads TPM (not just The Washington Note) -- a daily reminder that blood is on his hands.
I don't play nice, gracious with people who say that the "US should recognize obligations only when it's in our interest."
Bolton is a cheat and a loser. I hope we never hear again from that dolt.
December 4, 2006 10:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
mpower1952 - Bolton resigned. There will be no re-appointments following.
As far as Mr. Clemons "hat tipping" I agree that it is always more respectable and correct to let someone concede with a bit of dignity as opposed to setting the hounds at his naked throat. Of course I also agree that the entire Bush cabinet should be thrown in irons for crimes against humanity and treason. But that's just me.
As I see it, the important thing here is, now, after the shellacking shakedown that the American voters have served to Bush and the Republican’s that supported him, what real changes are going to happen?
In the context of the U. N. it will be interesting to see what state's position on the new Iraq-Iran alliance?? is going to be. And even if N. Korea is "back at the table" what's really going on there (proliferation controls?)? There is a need for the correct person (or persons) to be put in these three open diplomatic positions, but there is also a need for some expediency.
In recent years this sort of need has allowed Bush to rush through any number of horrible situations (Patriot Act, Enemy Combatant, Torture, Domestic Spying, etc…) Someone in Foreign Relations needs to commit to assembling a special committee (in the face of our current foreign situation) and draw up a list of "fast track" candidates for Bush to choose from, letting him know that anyone not on this list will delay the appointment of needed personnel and risk National Security.
This sort of power play is exactly what the Dems. need to do to assert control, plus, it is the right thing to do for the country.
December 4, 2006 10:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Have you talked to Grover "Castrate the Democrats" Norquist about that? That has been the tone of the Republican Party for the last 12 years. And not just the Radicals who are currently running the GOP; the entire lot of them. How much of that should citizens of good faith put up with? 15 years? 30 years? A "generation"?
The plain fact is that the Republicans interpret politeness and good faith as weakness, and redouble their attacks. Bolton is sinking; throw him an anvil.
sPh
December 5, 2006 6:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
This of course is exactly the problem with "comity", "politenes", "good manners", etc. The Nation desperately needs a good, hard fight over the Gates nomination where as much as possible of the dirty laundry, both from the Rumsfeld Administration and from Gates' past, is dragged out in the open for the citizenry to examine. But Washington DC "politeness" dictates that this cannot be done, because, um, ah, well for some reason that no one quite understands but is said by the Serious People to be very, very important.
Remind me again exactly why I worked my butt off to get Democratic candidates elected to Congress this year (no easy task where I live) if they are going to be too "polite" (that is, timid) to take action toward change.
sPh
December 5, 2006 6:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been trying to figure out why Bush would even try to get Bolton through committee again. It really doesn't make much sense. I don't agree with the assessment that it will look like 'Bush is giving up something he really wants' in order to ease confirmation of others. He pledges greater cooperation with Democrats one day, then pushes Bolton the next? A move like that does not work unless you are playing from a position of relative strength. Coming from the extremely unpopular and untrustworthy Bush, it only steels the opposition's resolve.
So, I'm really at a loss to explain it and I think the press is at a loss as well. It makes zero sense. Everyone expects conciliation; genuine at that.
Of course, at this point I don't expect smart decisions to come out of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
December 5, 2006 6:53 AM | Reply | Permalink
One possible theory is that George W. Bush really does think that he is the czar of the United States. Bush stated explicitly "what matters is how much confidence I have in someone, and I have a lot of confidence in John". He simply could not accept that one of his decisions was being rejected, nor that there was any body in the nation with the authority to reject his decisions.
sPh
December 5, 2006 6:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
Really - That's all I'm left with as well. Bush is just so incompetent and absolutely blinkered to reality that he thinks he can get this nomination done if he just says 'do it!' I know Senator Chaffee is a lame duck and all, but he MUST still have a phone in his office. They could have called, right? It really is weird.
December 5, 2006 7:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Kwanza for sure.
December 5, 2006 7:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
How many hat tips can you give a man who has made it a point to stick it in your eye every chance he got? John Bolton, representing our nation in the principle forum of nations, took every opportunity to hinder and defile not just the actors within the UN but the very enterprise of international cooperation and power. As an ideologue utterly convinced of his own ideology, Mr. Bolton was, as has been the case for so many Bush appointees, completely wrong for the job. The destruction he has wreaked will impede progress for some time to come.
Bolton fits the Bush model of employing people who are constitutionally opposed to the very institutions they are employed to oversee, leading to failure and destruction on most fronts. Brownie, Rummy, Ashcroft and Gonzales, EPA, all either incompetent or competent in their disdain for the institutions they have been employed to manage.
Now, just as Mr. "We don't need no stinkin' international cooperation" Bolton steps down from his post as chief international agreement wrecker, we find that the US is backed into a corner in Iraq with practially no good options for "Victory", and where are we looking for help? Lo and behold, there's all this talk about how we may need to negotiate assistance of some sort from Iran and Syria, Turkey, perhaps international peacekeepers.
I just wonder how many of the nations that have been slapped around by Mr. Bolton will be coming to the table looking to make nice with the US, help us out of our predicament. And how long before we realize that we actually need to cooperate with other nations (in a way that fosters good will as well as good agreements) in order to be successful. If the Iraq debacle is not a complete repudiation of Bolton's and the neocon anti-internationalist ideology yet, it should be.
I appreciate Mr. Clemons effort here not to make Bolton's politics personal, hence all the hat tipping, but much of what Bolton did during his tenure was reprehensible in its outright damage to our national interests, and a big part of Bolton's attitude in his job is a personal affront to me. That he would represent all Americans in his role as ambassador without giving one whit of care to either the American internationalist tradition of the past 60 years, nor the significant portion of us Americans who still actually respect the interests of people and nations around the world, Bolton's every step, every word, was a stick in the eye.
Perhaps Mr. Clemons would instruct us to, as in AA, hate the behavior, love the man. Fine. I say kick Bolton's policies in the ass on their way out the door.
December 5, 2006 8:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
"US should recognize obligations only when it's in our interest."
Nixon wrote in his Presidential Papers that his major concessions to Indian tribes was because it was critical that the nation honor its treaty obligations.
Your comment reminded me of a Blues song I heard years ago. It opened: "Oh, Lord, this is what I wish for the governor - a terrible automobile accident..."
Neoboho
December 5, 2006 8:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
If you want a second opinion besides that of your diplomat friend, what I would say is that Bolton should be investigated the way Clinton was and railroaded off to jail for the rest of his natural life.
Perhaps the truth lies somewhere in between.
December 5, 2006 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
So let me translate Steve's post. At least I think it's a simple translation, no opinions added, but you can judge.
(1) I'm close to a senior diplomat too important to be disclosed to you. He likes me and gives me advice. I respect him a lot, too. (2) As he says, proper Beltway people are always nice to each other. (3) I'm especially nice to Bolton myself, and he deserves it, because he's such a fine person and diplomat.
(4) His alleged behavior, bullying his career professionals and demeaning our allies and enimies alike, is of no relevance to such judgments -- or, for that matter, to his and the Bush administration's policy of bullying career professionals (think: intelligence) and demeaning our allies and enemies alike. (5) What's really interesting is who gains and loses brownie points in insider politics.
(6) What's really not interesting is changing the political agenda. Hey, this was all nonpartisan. Don't you get it, liberals? (7) Did I say I really and truly mean how much I admire Bolton? (8) Oh, and Bolton loves me, too: he reads everything I write.
In my (John's) own voice now: need anyone wonder why when it comes to (8)? Need anyone wonder why Steve never replies to comments? We're, after all, so lucky to be privileged to hear the scoop, when we're so obviously not insiders and thus unworthy. And what's a few trillion dollars and a few hundred thousand lives between friends?
http://www.haberarts.com/
December 5, 2006 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
If John Bolton were going to disappear and never be heard from again, I would agree with all the calls for "forgive and forget." But he isn't! He's currentlly trying to get a job as a TV pundit where he will have a platform to continue to spead his poisons.
Well, I for one don't want to make nice! This is flat drivel! A "brilliant man"? What conceivable sign of brilliance is it to destroy the U.N.?
Bolton is a fanatic who believes overall in unbridled power to crush everyone in the world who disagrees or disuptes with him or his twisted vision for the world.
He should be set upon by wild-dogs. And I don't give a damn if that makes me look "vindictive." This is a seriously EVIL man who makes the world a more dangerous place for his having lived in it.
We need to keep hammering and destroying his reputation so that he cannot appear in public without being repudiated. So that his value as a shill for unbridled military power and overreaching will be broken.
Why is it that "moderates" and liberals love to wallow in "bi-partisanship" and magnaminity, while conservatives get to mount endless campaigns about Clinton, yet nobody calls them "vindictive" or tells the rabid right that their current attacks on Jimmy Carter are "unseemly"?
This is a total war to the death between those who want an livable planet with decent standards for all, versus those who want to rape and destroy everything in the interests of unbridled power and unprecedented wealth for the privileged few.
December 5, 2006 10:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
and here I had thought that the ol' tip o' the hat was a long established tradition pioneered by Gingrich, Delay, Rove and the rest of the fun-lovin boys, (maybe it's a tradition when you are in the club. after all what's 2900 American lives, 15,000-20,000 maimed, a half million Iraqi lives and a trillion dollars spent? )
December 5, 2006 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
The thing (and the ONLY thing) that stopped Bush from doing another recess appointment is the law. The only way that one person can serve twice in the same office through a recess appointment is to do so without compensation. Although I'm sure Halliburton would have agreed to pay Bolton so as to let him keep his penthouse appt in New York, it would look so bad that EVEN THIS WHITE HOUSE knows better than to go that route.
They toyed with the idea of appointing him to a position that would not require approval in Congress (some State Dept position) and then appoint him as "Deputy Ambassador" or some such BS as that. I think that even old John was too embarassed to get the job that way. In the end, they just had to give up.
I don't believe for a minute that Dubya did this as some kind of concession to play nice so that Gates would get through without problems. They were at check mate, and they knew it. Bolton had nowhere to go but out the door. Good riddance! (I'd love to see what he cost us in salary, benies, housing, and entertainment for his time in office! Probably enough to rebuild part of New Orleans; however priorities ARE priorities!
Jan Knaus
December 5, 2006 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
It would be useful to subpoena Bolton when Congress begins unpacking the NSA mess. What were those intercepts he requested names for?
I guess we will be able to to kick Bolton around some more yet.
December 5, 2006 11:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
On the day that Hillary formally announced her candidacy for pres., Tucker Carlson got off his opening salvo to what we can expect from those high-minded, polite Republicans for the nauseating next two years.
Quote, "The people of New York only elected Clinton to the Senate because her husband cheated on her." (Not only are Repubs crude and rude, they're brainless.)
December 5, 2006 11:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I do want to point out one thing: On Steve's personal site he has responded to me several times in the comments section.
So perhaps he doesn't reply to comments here, but he has and continues to engage with commenters directly on his own site.
December 5, 2006 12:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
So if that's the reason they elected her, what reason do they give for overwhelmingly reelecting her after 6 years in office? Certainly, if her votes and initiatives were so bad, sympathy her wouldn't be enough reason to vote for her against ....who?
December 5, 2006 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah, I'll second that.
December 5, 2006 2:59 PM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to give a tip of the hat to anyone who spent their entire working life in service to his or her country...
I just can't do it with John Bolton.
I am not happy that he is gone, just relieved. He wasn't a diplomat to begin with, he was a partisan political hack sent to make a mafia style hit on the institution of the UN. I have no respect for him professionally and in that regard I loathe everything he and his fellow neocons stand for.
December 5, 2006 3:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Wow! That's good to know. Maybe Rudy Giuliani's ex-wife should run. And Newt Gingrich's ex. And heck, maybe Brittany Spears would like to throw her hat in! Oh, the list is ENDLESS of women who can get elected just because people vote for women whose husbands have cheated on them!
What an odd idea. The only person stupider than Tucker Carlson is the one who keeps him on the payroll. Is that Dan Abrams? There must be something Tucker has on people over at MSNBC...I think his Dad is a big honcho and that's why he can keep his sinecure.
Jan Knaus
December 5, 2006 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
[my emphasis]
This is the large and very important point. Rice is demonstrating a lack of competence as the CEO of a very large organization that must have a continuity of personnel. She should have had lists of people she and the administration had already considered to fill very senior posts as they were opened up. And if she did not know to do that then the President's Chief of Staff should have been on her case. Foreign policy and international dealing are critical to this Presidency.
To date Rice has acted more as a presidential envoy than the CEO of the State Dept.
December 6, 2006 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
More proof that she is a lightweight.
December 6, 2006 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I could be tempted to agree, but I must say that John Bolton has done at least as much as could have been expected from him.
When he was selected as the White House's appointee, his anti-diplomatic style was well known - not to say very well known, and so were his denigrating views on other nations and on the whole idea of the United Nations.
In case he'd acted against the interests of the American nation, as perceived by the President of the United States, we can be convinced he'd been replaced a very long time ago.
Any criticism ought to be directed against his superiors, the president and the people that had elected that president, whos policies he meritoriously pursued.
The imprint of mr Bolton's tenure will remain. In that sense, he deserves much respect for his competence.
/Tuomas
December 6, 2006 3:29 PM | Reply | Permalink
One easily gets the impression that there are deep differences within the nation regarding what are its true interests.
December 6, 2006 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Their competence in being completely incompetent?
December 7, 2006 6:07 AM | Reply | Permalink
In any case, he is definitely not the only one of the U.S. embassadors that doesn't have any diplomatic skill (in traditional sense, at least).
If he is considered "completely incompetent" (which I refuse to believe he really is), then dozens of other heads of embassies ought to be considered the same. If so, really, maybe it would be time to ponder how they are head-hunted. Maybe even finding a new strategy for that?
December 7, 2006 3:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ambassadors are generally selected because they are big donors to whichever political party is in power.
Tom
December 7, 2006 6:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe another system would serve the nation better?
/Tuomas
December 8, 2006 6:17 PM | Reply | Permalink