A New Conversation for the Reality Based Polity
Yesterday Max pointed back at populism of the late 19th century as a fertile ground for looking at the present. And who, having watched yet another bloodless performance by some FoxNews Democrat can deny that the moral clarity, fire in the belly and political grounding of populism is distinctly lacking in today's Democratic Party?
However, there is a larger picture - it is easy to pick apart the many failings of the populist movement, as a product of its time and place. It is even useful to do so, because in our own moment, some of the same mistakes are being made. "Energy Independence" is the "Free Coinage of Silver" of our era - a bad idea which is near and dear to the hearts of millions who don't have a clue about how to solve the real problems.
That larger picture is that, in the present, we must replace an old conversation - a conservative/reactionary/technocratic conversation with a new one - a progressive/populist/liberal conversation. The context of the populist movement is vital - because the natural rival of populism in the public mind is the reactionary movement. Racism and homophobia are the populism of fools.
While there are dominant ideologies to different eras, ideologies which govern without a conversation must use force to impose their will. When ideology becomes theology, then the state must have its own inquisition and inquisitors. The old conversation in America - which dominated from 1981 to 2006 - was a conservative/reactionary/technocratic conversation. Conservatism was the rubric of government, which was directed at furthering a reactionary vision of society, and which used technocratic means to accomplish a reactionary society by conservative means. And if the technocrats got too uppity, they were accused of having "liberal bias".
This conversation was not maintained without some effort, the media happily played along in demonizing liberal, progressive and populist elements, except in very narrow circumstances when these elements were temporarily useful in advancing some reactionary idea. Human rights suddenly became interesting to the media with respect to foreign policy, only when human rights were part of the causus belli against Saddam. Gas prices were a concern at $1.50/gallon under Clinton, but not at $3/gallon under Bush. And so on.
Many liberals could, and did, participate in this conversation as technocrats, essentially reduced to wining about some obvious problem, begging for a few pennies to plug the gap. Some embraced this converstation, arguing that they should be more interested in talking to their centre-right technocratic counterparts rather than to the populist or progressive impulses in society. I won't name any names here, you know who you are.
Populism is, indeed, all the rage in politics, and Max is more than right in pointing people back at the foundation of the word and the world view - simply because populism is usually found in rather debased forms. The crusade for a party unbeholden to entrenched interests is a topic of obsessive debate today. If Vermont is the epicenter of the exotic politics of viable third party candidates today Kansas played that role in the 19th century. Populism advocated, and as importantly, agitated for, many of the actions of government that were to follow - income tax, labor unions, limits on corporate size and power. The undebased populist coin is still good in the realm - the Populists of the late 19th century were against what we call "Corporate Welfare" today, and against an internal "Pinkerton System" of federal police.
However, the debased forms of the present often represent the lesser tendencies of populism itself. If a liberal devolves into a technocrat, a populist devolves into a reactionary. The political career of Thomas E. Watson provides a personal face to that arc. From Farmer's crusader who broke with the Democratic Party in Georgia over the Speakership, to Vice-Presidential Candidate on the Populist Party ticket - down to anti-catholic and negrophobe publisher and author, and finally short lived Senator of unreconstructed Jim Crowism by 1920 - Watson passed through almost all of the stages of populism, down to its tail end. He showed that one could be sympathetic to socialism and a pacificist, at the same time being a virulent anti-semite and racist.
Populism's problem is that it wants people to hold on to the world of the every day. That every day world, however, is filled with the ghosts of prejudices and long forgotten crimes, and it is easy to turn defense of the ordinary, into a hatred of that which disturbs the norm. If a liberal goes bad by accepting tenure and deciding that the boat doesn't need to be rocked, a populist goes bad by trying to throw people off the boat.
- - -
Which returns me to the importance of the national political conversation. It is the tension between fundamentally unified goals expressed by fundamentally different means which keeps people honest. It is the cries of pain, hunger and frustration which, should they reach the ears of the technocat, should keep him awake at night and not allow him to accept the world as it is. Equally important, it is the policy imagination, and the vision of the wider world which keeps the populist from degenerating down into a localist and isolationist.
The present conversation is broken. It is unable, even derisively dismissive, of "the reality based community". Reality, however, may lose the debates, but it wins all the arguments. Reality is setting in Iraq, as it will set in on the subject of the budget soon enough. A reality based community, in order to be a reality based polity, needs a form of conversation which is adequeate to its goals, problems and means.
The pillars of that conversation must be populism, progressivism and liberalism.
Populism is the easiest to make the case for, we would all like to believe that what we do is for "the people". But as the history of progressive and populist causes in the late 19th century and early 20th century shows - it is far from easy to separate out what is good for "the people" from what is good for "my people", who are not "your people". In linguistics you learn that it is "the little words" that often control the meaning, the same is true in politics.
Populism's place is thus, a slippery slope. The reason for this is that populism desires, even demands, that actions taken be consonant with the emotional logic of the public at large. In one sense this is the most vital contribution of populism. People can't make an idea work, if they can't get it. However, within the public imagination there is a host of superstition and demonology. There are "obvious" truths which are, in fact, obviously false. Populism is more than a bull in a china shop, it is bullshit as people go shopping for goods from China.
Populism is the dynamite of politics - it has the explosive force to cut through mountains, and clear away obstructions. It also has the ability to blow your fool hand off if you aren't careful. Populism is also focus - without the focus on who the actual owners of government, and indeed the economy, are, it is easy for those in power to spend their time filing away their own burdens. Managers will pay more for an hour of their own time, than for a day of their customer's time - and the same is true in politics: people fight harder to get the corner office than to keep a roof over the head of a constituent.
Already key outrages against the public - such as the bankruptcy bill - are fading into the background. We have legislation that allows people to tithe rather than pay back creditors under the bankruptcy bill, but no move to actually roll back what is the worst legislation passed for the middle class in a generation bulging with competition for the title.
Populism's lacks - greater vision, the ability to determine the real causes of public misery, and an excessive focus on the Jeffersonian surreality of localism - are balanced by the other two points on the triangle. Where we must replace reactionary outrage with populist righteous anger - we must replace conservative piloting of the ship of state with progressivism, and mere technocratic manipulation with an authentic liberalism.
The replacement of conservatism by progressivism is most keenly felt among the young, in no small part because they have the least to conserve, and it is on the backs of the young that the mountain of debt - both explicit and implicit - rests. However, the urge to reach for the stars is not limited to the young, and indeed it is often the old who are most able to look longingly towards the promised land that they will not reach.
The raison d'etre of progressivism is a simple declarative truth: times will not be as they are. We cannot continue to slupr down an ocean of oil and belch an atmosphere of carbon dioxide. There is not enough tradition hydrocarbon fuel on the planet, and there is not enough air to sink the refuse into, to provide everyone with a decent living. The simple truth that the way of life of the present is rapidly hurtling towards oblivion, once grasped, creates an ethical imperative that is as powerful as populism's moral imperative. If we cannot leave people in the present in poverty, despair and frustration, we cannot condemn people in the future to the same fate.
Progressivism realizes that the ony way out is forward. That attempting to replace cheap petroleum with liquified coal is like replacing indentured servants with slaves, or breaking on the wheel with the rack. It is change with out advancement. Progressivism also realizes that human decency is a moving target. That which the past would accept as the basic human standard of living once, is not acceptable now, because we have more now than we did before. Where the populist wants a less molested version of his own century - late 19th, 20th or early 21st - the progressive realizes that the 22nd century is coming, at the rate of 60 seconds every minute, whatever we do.
Which brings us to the third, and most problematic, leg of the triangle. It is problematic because old liberalism is blamed, excessively, for the failures of the 1968-1980 period. In point of fact, failure is always a team effort, and the various contending strains of political effort - reactionary, populist, conservative alike - are as much to blame for the collapse of the post-war political an economic system. It is not that one can really defend the Cold War and its excesses on moral grounds, but one must admit that it was the spur to making the lives of more people better than any other time in history. Liberalism is also blamed for the failure of other ideologies of the left, particularly, and most egregiously, Stalinism.
The collapse of Stalinism, in fact, is and should be the great boon to both Socialism and Liberalism as ideologies - in that it was the presence of a supposedly leftist state which pursued supposedly humane ideals by the most inhumane reasons that was a constant drag on both the theoretical and practical existence of liberal government. The need to explain, or explain away, the Soviet Union, warped the direction of liberal and socialist thought, and the pragmatic need to fight the Cold War led an almost unimaginably long list of violations of the basic tennets of liberalism. We cannot discount the amount of human misery which was inflicted by nominally liberal and nominally socialist governments in order to hold back the Soviet Empire. We cannot discount the amount of human misery that various "People's Republics" inflicted in the name of expanding that empire.
Freed of the huge hole which was the Cold War, the intellectual ideologies of the left - with their intellectual imperative to recreate the landscape of human thought as the means to recreating the geography of human existence - should have been free to imagine what could be done with the human effort unbound by the end of the Cold War. For a brief moment the "peace dividend" was a topic of debate and threatened to unbalance the entire conservative conversation. If suddenly there was more than enough, America would soon turn away from an ideology that supposes that there is always too little.
One lack has been the lack of drive - without a populist movement to provide a stream of needs, the intellectual imperative often wanders into its own fetid swamps. Another lack has been the lack of hope - despair poisons minds. Both of these gaps in the imagination of the intellect of the left can be traced to the lack of a conversation to be an equal participant in, as opposed the the house slaves of a reactionary engine.
But if the need for populism is to remember its past, and thus face the failures of past waves of populism - the need for the intellectual wing of the left is to forget its past. The modern era produced a liberalism and a socialism which were products both of the opportunities and the challenges of that moment. At the same time that the populists were railing against the railroads - the real solution to the problem of transport - paved roads and internal combustion - were coming into being. It was Grover Cleveland, a hard money Democrat - who set the ball rolling towards an America knit together by public, paved, roads. It is a feature of life so omnipresent as to escape us. There was not even the frail outline of such a system in 1892.
The intellectual face of the left needs to face forward again. It also needs to end its subservience to the popular imagination's lesser aspects, as it so often has during the Clintonian years. Liberals need to stop playing the bottom to the reactionary top - because the reactionaries, while they represent impulses from the public, do not represent the public itself. Racism, homphobia, violence, envy, anti-intellectualism are outbreaks of the diseases of the public imagination, not the public imagination itself.
This conversation is newly foaled and on spindly, wobbly, legs. It has elected a Congress with a mandate to stop digging in the hole we are in, but without a clear means to make progress. There are a swirl of demands, ideas, hopes, fears, memes and goals - but as yet no means of knitting them together into a comprehensive vision. While leadership is one aspect of the creation of a consensus, the other side of leadership is a conversation. Leaders may create ideas, but far more often they draw from others, and give expression to the synthesis which others have come to, but not been able to ennunciate.
Populism? By all means. But those means are going to be liberal and progressive means.












Comments (27)
I am trying to square
and
Sustainable Energy Independence may not be feasible for every nation on the face of its earth ... but if it is not feasible in the US, with a biocapacity estimated by the Global Footprint Network to be more than twice the global average (11.7 acres / capita versus 4.4 acres / capita), its not feasible at all, and the end of the age of oil is the collapse of technological civilization.
In which case, why bother?
November 21, 2006 7:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thanks for clearing that up. I hadn't realized that my desire to break the US' addiction to imported oil and all non-sustainable forms of hydrocarbon energy delivery was a "bad idea". You are so brilliant sir.
sPh
November 21, 2006 7:17 AM | Reply | Permalink
" I hadn't realized that my desire to break the US' addiction to imported oil and all non-sustainable forms of hydrocarbon energy delivery was a "bad idea"."
And the free silverites had a desire to break the liquidity squeeze in agriculture. That doesn't mean that it would have worked.
Let me spell it out for the terminally stupid "energy independence" is a long way of spelling "coal". Coal. Coal. Coal. Coal. Because that is the non-nuclear energy dense source of energy available that can run the existing US vehicle fleet.
Now, since it is about $45/barrel to produce TF synfuel in quantity, that means that the production that gets retired will be production above $45 dollars a barrel. This means Saudi Arabia will chug along with its $5-$7.50 barrel oil quite happily. Most of the cut production will be deep water gulf of Mexico and Canada, which counts as imports, but doesn't do anything for increasing political stability. We will drill more in the gulf for a while, because that is where the majors have drilling rights - right in the way of hurricanes. The more production we put there, the more the next Katrina-Rita one-two punch will cause an inflationary spike similar to the one we just passed through. This one was enough to be a clear cause of knocking the Republicans out of control of Congress.
As for reducing carbon - you are an idiot. Energy independence will lead to more, not less, carbon dioxide, as we shift to TF based petroleum.
This is exactly the problem with unalloyed populism - it's nasty, clear simple and wrong - filled with people who bellow that because they have the best interests of the public at heart, that therefore they can do no wrong.
I will say it again - energy independence is a bad idea whose time has come, and after we have sunk a few irreplacable years into it, we will know that. "Americans will do the right thing, after they have done all of the wrong things."
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 21, 2006 7:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I guess my two engineering degrees and 20 years of experience in the energy industry (both nuclear and coal) can't overcome my congenital stupidity (or is it my idiocy? hard to keep track) in the fact of your awesome experience as a Political Pundit.
Thanks again for an enlightening experience.
sPh
November 21, 2006 7:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's your astounding ignorance of economics which is at issue here. When you can show me an economically viable nuclear powered car, I'll listen. Until then energy independence means "coal and deep drilling" which means more carbon, not less carbon.
Those are the cheapest substitutes for barrels of oil. They will displace the most expensive imported barrels of oil, almost none of which are from the middle east.
Those are the facts. As for enlightenment, I am not holding my breath.
November 21, 2006 7:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Just to go over the facts on, or in this case in, the ground.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/07/25/AR2005072501707.html
The United States currently imports 58% of our oil, there is no, repeat no, non-carbon replacement for those gallons of fuel internally produced at economical prices.
More over "energy independence" and reducing carbon emissions are at cross purposes. One way to reduce the total carbon emissions would be to shift to ethanol. Even with cell eth coming on line, the most logical way to do this would be to have tropical countries grow sugar cane, and have the US import it. This becomes economically if we 1, get rid of import quotas and taxes on ethanol, and 2, import the energy from where it is most economically to produce. That is places where land and labor are cheaper, and where the climate is more favorable.
So the argument that "energy independence" has anything to do with reducing carbon is simply false, because one of the ways to reduce carbon is to shift to importing ethanol.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 21, 2006 8:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
The shifting meanings of "we the people," including competing notions of individualism and community, democracy and elites, is very much a perpetual theme in America's political history. And Stirling's post here and comments appended to Max's post are, I think, absolutely right to question the continuity between populism and a progressive agenda, whether back when there was a titled progressive movement or now.
The senate's greater role than the House in occasional checks on the Bush administration suggests that even the thing I most dislike about the American system, the weight it gives small states, has positives to go with the inequities of the electoral college. And, paradoxically, populists have often fed that aspect of unequal treatment in America by a distrust of the federal government and preference for states' rights.
More obviously, however, I do hope liberals still have some faith in the importance of minorities, whether as lone voices in times of demagogery and war, as policy regarding civil rights, or as a constitutional system including the Bill of Rights and separation of powers. Populists have not consistently maintained that faith.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
November 21, 2006 8:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Let me spell it out for the repeatedly obtuse.
(1) Of course the coal industry wants Energy Independence to be a Coal program.
(2) I am sure that most of us realize that. Seriously, who have you read who favors Sustainable Energy Independence who does not know that coal is climate crisis enemy #1?
(3) Fighting that by rejecting Energy Independence as a goal is a dead end, when Energy Independence quite evidently needs to be our goal.
(4) Therefore, the Coal = Energy Independence concept must be fought, and that fight must be won.
(5) Those that claim to be for a sustainable economy but who reinforce rather than fight the Coal = Energy Independence concept are cheering for one side while working for the other.
November 21, 2006 11:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
"(1) Of course the coal industry wants Energy Independence to be a Coal program."
And they are going to get it too, because coal is the cheapest way of attaining the stated goal of "energy independence"
Don't demand what you don't want.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 21, 2006 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
"but if it is not feasible in the US, with a biocapacity estimated by the Global Footprint Network to be more than twice the global average (11.7 acres / capita versus 4.4 acres / capita), its not feasible at all, and the end of the age of oil is the collapse of technological civilization"
That doesn't follow at all. You are building an assumption, namely that biomass is the only sustainable energy source, in. An assumption which is incorrect. Biomass is not the only part of sustainable energy, and it is not the case that biocapacity is the correct measure - it is energy density of product versus the competing uses of the same land. Hence the advantage of tropical climates - land is cheaper, people are cheaper, and sugar cane has a higher energy density. Biomass however, while it will be an important part of the sustainable future is a multiplier of energy sources, not an energy source in and of itself.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 21, 2006 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am demanding what I want ... Sustainable Energy Independence.
And I repeat ... if we can't accomplish that, based on our head start in terms of biocapacity per capita, than the world can't get there ... getting the US there is only part of the fight.
Coal is only cheapest if we don't count the cost. Counting the cost of unsustainable energy sources, foreign and domestic, is a fight that Big Oil and the coal companies will combine on.
November 21, 2006 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Bruce,
Nice try, but Newberry has some sort of agenda here that isn't clear and he is brooking no dissent. When a matter of thermodynamics is referred to the Economics Pony Fairy you know that all reasonable discussion has ended.
sPh
November 21, 2006 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure what you mean calling him an Economics Pony Fairy ... is it a dig at the less than conventional economics that he throws in, or a dig at the conventional fantasy economics that he adds to seem more respectable?
You've got me on tenterhooks here ... I don't know whether I agree with you completely or disagree with you completely on that point.
November 21, 2006 1:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
This argument is a bait and switch. You disprove "is always identical to", and then try to apply that to disproving "has anything to do with" by simply bluffing.
November 21, 2006 1:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do cows poop more biomass in Brazil than Idaho?
You aware, of course, of anaerobic digesters that utilize manure to generate electricity? My doctor told me the village he grew up in in India got all its electricity from cow manure. More useful than that stuff generated in D.C. it appears.
Improvement in technology is allowing delivery of a commercial green natural gas for industrial use even now that is quite competitive with the fossil fuel.
Nuclear energy heats water in the earth for free. Geothermal plants in some impoverished areas of the world as well as the U.S. furnish electricity whose costs are quite competitive with coal-burning plants.
Cellulosic ethanol is not yet competitive with sugar-derived ethanol. Just a matter of time I think.
All that has been missing is will.
When California managed to elect a math Ph.D. to the House of ill repute, it got a wind energy entrepreneur in Jerry McNerny. He may not have good company to discuss intellectual ideas with but I bet he has some ideas on energy independence that are worth considering.
Is the wind better in Brazil? I think we have politicians who can compete with anyone in the world in that regard as well as in the quantity of manure they spread.
Best, Terry
November 21, 2006 3:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Stirling is right on this, energy independence with our current levels of oil consumption are not feasible and environmentally destructive as hell.
Though I disagree with the notion that the mantra "Energy independence" is a populist phenomena. I see it as a function of increase in gas prices over the last 12 months.
In regards to biofuels they aren't going to help without a major downshift with Americans automobile use. We don't have enough spare farmland to grow the biofuels necessary. We could but we'd have to stave and hence kill fellow Americans so we can continue our easy motoring ways.
Assuming we did, do we really want to keep putting more and more motorized codpieces(SUVs) on the road so as to make joe and jane sixpack happy?
November 21, 2006 5:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sunday afternoon - this Sunday, 26 November 2006 - every red-blooded American male with a car manufactured after 1995 goes out to AutoZone, buys a "High Fuel Economy" chip for his car[1], and pops it into the appropriate socket on said vehicle. Monday morning average US fleet fuel economy improves 15%.
Explain to me please how that action is "environmentally destructive"? Admittedly, some additional silicon and chipmaking chemicals will have to be disposed of, but I can't think that comes anywhere near the damage from the oil that won't be refined in the US.
And that is an easy, no-cost thing that the US can do _tomorrow_. I personally advocate a much more focused, designed, intelligent program. Saying that there is "nothing" that can be done is both ridiculous on the face and not supported by history.
sPh
[1] Per my friends, family members, and acquaintences in the Detroit car-design business (who admittedly only go up to the level of Assistant VP at at least one Big 2.5 automaker; complete idiots compared to Washington DC pundits), for every car with a computer control (which is all since 1995) the manufacturers have developed Standard, High Performance, and Fuel Economy chips. And in every product planning meeting since 1992 the Marketing Dept has selected the Performance chip. Fuel economy can in fact be improved a reasonable amount tomorrow if anyone forced it to happen.
November 21, 2006 5:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
A hydrogen fuel cell car with hydrogen produced by nuclear reactors is a perfectly feasible option. It is not economically competitive yet, but that is only a question of scale.
What is with your insistence that energy independence has to be coal-based? It doesn't.
November 21, 2006 8:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Biomass is indirect solar energy, and land use is of course precisely the issue. Poorly thought-out incentives could risk agricultural distortions, but let's not do that--let's have unpressured advice to legislators.
Energy independence, if thought of correctly, is not only possible but essential. If all avenues to using less carbon are followed, we don't have to depend on tropical climates. Fine with me if we buy from them, but we risk strategic control of energy if the markets shift dramatically.
The more sources of energy conversion are in use the more diffuse and less volatile the energy market will be, I would guess. A car that was flex-fuel in a larger sense, like a hybrid that allowed direct battery charging, and could also run on alcohol, would be an efficient user for a variety of energy sources.
The independence we should be asking for is at the individual level. I should be able to run my house on either self-generated electricity or self-gen fuel, off the grid or the gas lines, etc. I should be able to borrow some charge from a friend's batteries, or hook up when I park in the big lot at work. I should be able to sell my energy at competitive prices on the open market.
November 22, 2006 5:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
I guess the point is that the likely result of simple emphasis on independence without specificity means Coal. This is true only absent our political pressure.
Good to discover this discrepancy in meaning. (Most of us simply assume we're not replacing oil with coal.) It is therefore very important to monitor all political moves re:energy closely, or Striling's scenario occurs.
November 22, 2006 5:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Agree with you that the quickest non-fossil-carbon switch is to tropical ethanol. Seems no more likely, absent pressure, than avoiding the Coal increase, with sugar producers and other agribiz pretty powerful.
I think I would throw my support that way, anyway. It is also the quickest way to boost the user end of non-fossil fuels. More alcohol users will mean an increase in small and large producers, and some of them will move into other processes.
November 22, 2006 5:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's a rich tapestry, dawg. I don't think real isolationist "energy independence" is all that feasible (or advisable) either, but as Wu-Tang tells us, we must diversify our bonds and protect our necks.
Myself, I like the idea of pulling all the diesel we need to run our massive trucking empire out of algae grown from cow shit in the Salton sea. It's not going to reduce carbon much (though growing the algae helps), but there are more efficient engines on the horizon.
I don't think you can underestimate the secondary benefits of indigenous energy-production. It creates really valuable infrastructure, drives expertise in sciences that matter, makes for good jobs that are hard to downsize, etc.
The long-term goal of energy independence is a global thing: stop sucking up the stored solar energy of the past eons and learn to shake what our mother gave us.
November 27, 2006 9:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think you're being needlessly dour here, Sterling. Energy policy moves at a glacial pace, and Big Coal doesn't have that a lock on the Democratic congress just yet.
It's undeniable that more efficiently using coal is going to be something that happens as the price of oil increases, but the banner of Energy Independence from a public policy standpoint includes a lot more than that.
Your point seems to be that the banner has been thoroughly coopted and won't work, which is a debatable political jugement, and you throw out one of many scientifically and economically possible alternatives. There are lots of alternatives, some but not all necessitating international trade.
The general frame/idea of getting the public to think about energy policy in terms of independence (which really amounts to sustainability, not isolationism) has enduring value. Don't ruin the fun because your pet plan isn't on the first-year agenda.
November 27, 2006 9:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
You point out an important issue, which is that a desire for independence leads to efficient exploitation of local energy (different everywhere) and means lots of local work. Since it means exploiting detailed knowledge of local circumstances, it automatically requires local workers.
Just keep the focus on the ratio of current energy demand and total sunshine, which is about 1:1000. Subtract plants, at about 10%, and cloud cover, and you still get roughly what we use in a year falling as sunshine in one day. And when it's cloudy, it's often windy.
Most important is that until now we have not needed large-scale energy storage. That need, whether as fuel stocks in tank farms or as easily portable fuel, has been met by petroleum. Batteries have been a tiny portion of energy storage, only used for convenience of directly usable electricity. With the increasing presence of intermittent generators, the market for storage will arrive.
The history of technology is that when the market asks, it gets. Of course, it doesn't ask for things it believes are impossible, so the growing feeling of possiblity will mean the desire.
Once we can bank and ship solar power, (from sun, wind, or biomass), we'll be flooded with cheap energy for a really long time, or until our demand approaches a major fraction of total solar input. At that point we move energy collection into space.
November 27, 2006 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
What an astute comment, sPh, at least in my opinion.
But consider the idea that what you are running into here is an overall "if I was king of the world" pundit writing style rather than agenda(s) on individual issue(s). After following his work over a few years, the approach with Mr. Newberry almost always seems to me to be that of a staunch advocate that has the truth, as in a trial in our system, with the expectation that some opposing advocate will take up point(s) of contention.
In the end, what I find suprising and confusing about the use of that style by Mr. Newberry is that it is coming from someone who also often writes as a booster of the power of communal thought and action of the net. Wouldn't it be more appropriate for such a booster to present in a style with theories as questions, with requests for further thought and input about those theories, rather than as declarative truths intended for an adversary with equal and oppposing truths? For me, the latter method really presumes that individual elites duking it out will continue to rule the world. Or TV pundits; it's basically the Rush Limbaugh model. :-)
November 27, 2006 11:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
"That doesn't follow at all. You are building an assumption, namely that biomass is the only sustainable energy source"
In my eyes, it all depends on what your values are. My fear about "free energy" is "it would be used for the wholesale destruction of the earth.
specifically, for many, "free energy" translates into larger homes, more roads, more junk in landfills, less habitat for other creatures, etc...
in some ways, if energy started to run out, perhaps ecological balance would be restored.
in a similar way, I sometimes wonder "if we fought wars man-to-man, would we be motivated to change our values?"
at any rate, in my mind, bio-mass and energy are inter-twined at a very deep level.
as you noted about the "free coinage of silver" I would like to add "there is no free lunch" and more specifically, moral behavior and ethical analysis will still be "out of our reach."
November 29, 2006 10:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is always a resource that is in shorter supply than something else, so if energy is cheap, disposal (of waste) may be dear.
It will be land and water that become short-supply issues. They have been in the past, are now, and will again be the main bones of contention. Water is a need that can be addressed through technical means, to the extent markets allow. Land will not be replaceable for the majority of the world, until it becomes cheap to get off-planet.
We fought wars man-to-man until the development of the rifle, or for most of recorded history. They are deeply genetic, and will be around for a really long time.
November 29, 2006 3:59 PM | Reply | Permalink