COME THE REVOLUTION, GONNA BE NO MORE LIMOUSINES
How liberal or progressive is the incoming Democratic caucus in Congress? Kos has shut down the kerfuffle between the Kossian netroots and the incoming House leadership -- Pelosi, Emanuel, and Hoyer -- but the question remains. I don't think any one-word answer suffices because there are different dimensions and Democrats have diverse support for what are ordinarily thought of as liberal positions.
To be sure, the "people-powered" forces deserve much credit for their contribution to the victories. But when I look at what the winners have been saying, I see only limited evidence of voters thinking differently.
On the most practical level, a one-vote majority in the Senate makes it very difficult to enact industrial-strength progressive legislation. Bush is sure to veto anything he doesn't have to sign, and what is there to make him sign anything? Such votes are useful to score political points for 2008, but on some issues the damage is well-distributed to both sides.
On the war, the argument was basically there were no WMDs so the invasion was unjustified. In other words, if there were WMDs, it would have been. Might have been, with a "competent" Administration. Presumably, we need the kind of Clinton/Albright competence that instituted economic sanctions resulting in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children. Albright, who said this was an acceptable price (for someone else) to pay, was acclaimed as a hero on the liberal champion Jon Stewart's show.
What then is the argument for "the indispensable nation" not commissioning new carnage in Iran or North Korea? There's a reason some on the left were referring to "Barack O-bomb-a." There is no majority constituency for immediate withdrawal (which I favor), nor is there yet a popular liberal critique of Empire, least of all here among TPM's own foreign policy savants. Criticism of imperialism can still be painted as "anti-American." The only safe way to do it is as a conservative or libertarian.
On the economy, a minimum wage increase is an easy vote. MW referenda won all over the country. This is great only in light of how impoverished the legislative agenda has been. An indexed MW ought to be a no-brainer.
On the toughest issues facing the country -- U.S. military intervention, nuclear proliferation, the long-run budget deficit, and global warming -- being a little liberal is not enough. These are very difficult political problems that will require significant changes in public opinion. The election results do not signify any such changes.
For evidence of true progressive inclinations on the economic front, I look for advocacy of new spending initiatives financed by new taxes. And I look for admission that future health care spending growth will require tax increases. I don't see that anywhere -- just mealy-mouthedness about the Bush tax cuts on the top one percent. It's drivel. You need to reclaim much more in tax revenue than that paid by the top one percent, just to pay for spending that is already in the pipeline.
The incoming Dems have spoken of balancing the budget, an exercise pointless at best, counter-productive both economically and politically at worst. (Reid Hundt is on target here.) They ought to be sharpening their knives for Ben Bernanke and the Fed on the drop in labor force participation since 2000.
Military spending? Remember the uproar in the Dem primaries when one of the 'serious' candidates suggested we could reduce military spending? See all the candidates who say we need more special forces and/or a bigger uniformed military? Base closings, anyone? How many attacks on the Iraq policy are based on reallocating military force somewhere else -- Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan -- rather than drawing down and figuring out a better way to achieve national security objectives?
There are some hopeful populist signs, particularly in Ohio, which is important. But we've got a long way to go. Remember a raft of Dems voted against NAFTA, but you need more than that to force the Dem leadership to rethink its dogma on so-called free trade. The pops need to form their own trade evaluation study group; they won't get any useful guidance on this issue from the leadership. Emanuel and Hoyer are free-traders, as far as I know.
On social issues, there were a couple of bright spots on reproductive rights and gay marriage, but also a wave of reaction. People who elected Jim Webb, for instance, voted to maintain the heterosexual monopoly on state-sanctioned marriage. The immigration picture is mixed as well, though it looks like a net benefit for the D's.
The Murtha-Hoyer controversy is symptomatic of the netroots' confusion. Murtha channels the military, which a while back figured out that the war was a flop. That's about it. Being against the war is no longer novel. Murtha helped bring that change about, but now his usefulness is more limited. Until the war, he was always the kind of Democrat who was more of an obstruction than an aid to progress. Steny Hoyer was bad on the war, but hey, so was Kevin Drum, and Hoyer is better than Murtha on most other things, as far as I can see. Hoyer can change his war position more easily than Murtha can change his DNA. Pelosi backing Murtha over Hoyer does not augur well, IMO.
Most legislation that actually passes does so on a bipartisan basis. This is especially true now, with Bush still in the White House and the thinnest possible Dem majority in the Senate. For Dems, the challenge is to make proposals that take people from where they are now to where they ought to be. Where they are now is still pretty backward; Harold Ford could not get elected because he dates white women. Repubs thought they could beat Jim Webb by quoting from his dirty novels (which evidently backfired).
The people who got elected know how to get elected because they know how people think. Not being progressive policy wonks, they don't know how people ought to think. To move the agenda forward, the netroots need to think differently about basic policy principles and convey it to their audience.















e.g. he helped Republicans stall key reform legislation on ethics and lobbying.
November 13, 2006 5:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
In the real world there is no such thing as purity.
A progressive agenda as defined by many at TPMCafe will drive the United States economy into second rate status. It will give rise to a new Reafgan who will blame everything on government and enact new tax cuts.
It might be time for those not in government to recognize that ideology of the Right and Left is largely foolish because the world is more complicated than that.
The current tendency to annoint a new media darling as the champion of the Left or the Right without knowing much about the person or what policies really work is interesting. It would seem that blogs and the ability to disucss real policies would reduce this problem.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
November 13, 2006 6:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
Pelosi backing Murtha over Hoyer does not augur well, IMO.
That seems inconsistent. You argue that the Democratic congress won't be able to pass much legislation given Bush's veto power. And then seem to prefer Hoyer over Murtha based on Hoyer's somewhat more liberal positions other than on Iraq . Logically , Iraq about which Congress can actually have effect via its control of funding trumps those non-Iraq issues on which it will have little impact.
November 13, 2006 6:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Most legislation that actually passes does so on a bipartisan basis. This is especially true now, with Bush still in the White House and the thinnest possible Dem majority in the Senate.
There is a raft of legislation that has not reached the floor because Republicans are well aware that their positions are unpopular. Bush will be under enormous pressure from his colleagues in the Congress to sign bills like the mininimum wage increase, cutting of oil industry subsidies, changes in the Medicare drug plan, reduction of student loan interest rates and so forth.
He may nonetheless veto those bills. But that will just set the stage for another wave, in the Senate in 08, perhaps with a republican president. (The dem candidates don't look so hot at the moment, and we've just had a lesson in what can happen when you have undivided government.)
November 13, 2006 6:44 AM | Reply | Permalink
A progressive agenda as defined by many at TPMCafe
Straw man alert. Who are these people? What is their agenda?
In any case the democratic agenda includes a pay as you go provision.
November 13, 2006 6:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
You've hit upon the choice that the Democratic party, and the nation as a whole have to eventually face: How are we going to pay for the things we promised to the American people? In the next 5-10 years, the baby boom will start to retire in large numbers. The succeeding generations are nowhere near as large, and based on the current social security system, we may have a serious shortfall of funding. Same with Medicare.
We have all of this financial obligations along with a massive military budget. And top that off with the fact this country is in a huge amount of debt. It leaves us with fateful choices: Raise taxes and cut spending; Raise taxes and increasing spending or cut taxes and cut spending even more. Cutting taxes and increasing spending has, thanks to Bush, been discredited.
Raising taxes and spending, as suggested here, is probably the approach that would help ensure funding for all the nifty programs Dems like to have. The problem is with this is people are only willing to pay so much. Tax increases have never been popular. You still have a sizable number of people who believe that government should stay out of their bedrooms AND their pocketbooks. Some of them even voted Dem this past election, not because of a desire for higher taxes and more services, but because of Bush's incompetence.
Some would say if we only cut the military budget then we could pay for everything else on the progressive wish list. Fat chance - the military is the sacred cow of American society. We barely did it at the end of the Cold War (we cut the military a little, but not much), but if the Dems were to advocate this now (while we still have the issue of terrorism to deal with), they would quickly go back to minority status.
Personally, I think we have to bite the bullet and get out of debt entirely. It would be a lot better if we were no longer beholden to the Chinese or Saudis.
November 13, 2006 6:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
While there may be some who have been just elected who are populists (the NY Times makes a case for Tester today), in general, the newcomers are going to be just as beholden to business interests are those they replace.
The game is still getting elected, and getting elected means finding enough money to run, and finding money means going to business. Pelosi says she will rein in the lobbyists, but cutting the source of candidate funds without lowering the costs of elections isn't going to work.
If we want to see more people elected who represent the interests of the working classes we need to enable these types of people to be able to win elections. This means reforming how campaigns are financed.
So I think we may see some improvement in social programs under the Dems, but changing the climate towards big business is not likely. Doing anything about the military/industrial/congressional complex is even less probable.
--- Policies not Politics
Daily Landscape
November 13, 2006 6:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Any Baby Boomers in my situation won't be retiring at all. I make good money and as a result no significant grants were available, so I'm carrying college loans for my children equivalent to a mortgage.
I'll be contributing to general revenues and Social Security for a while yet.
November 13, 2006 6:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
What is their agenda? Haven't you read anything by Nathan Newman? Or the post we're commenting on here?
And it is precisely the Democratic position on spending that Max Sawicky, in an exquisite bit of confirming every Republican stereotype of liberals, objects to. He wants lots of new programs (for the poor and dispossessed, presumably) financed by lots of new taxes. How much more explicit do you need to be?
He does say something important though. It is absolutely true that the federal budget cannot be balanced just by raising taxes on the super-wealthy, as many Democrats have implied. It'll take more than that.
But those Democrats who actually care about the reality of spending and taxes are between a rock and a hard place. Talking reality on spending and taxes is a non-starter politically. But the country is heading for serious problems that will only get worse the longer the current fiscal system is allowed to persist.
November 13, 2006 9:02 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is, of course, silly to talk of federal spending being "financed" by taxes, since the Federal government is the monopoly issuer of fiat currency, and can spend its own fiat-currency without any finance whatsoever. The problem, of course, is that doing that beyond the capacity of the private sector to mobilize unemployed resources leads to price inflation, and if pushed too far undermines the status of the government's fiat currency as money.
Thus, when government spends, it creates new purchasing power, and the role that taxes play is to remove sufficient purchasing power to maintain macroeconomic balance.
However, there is certainly a strong case that can be made that government consumption spending should be matched by corresponding taxes. Therefore, for people focusing on government consumption spending, talking of taxes as "financing" government spending is a convenient way to avoid working through the argument for people indoctrinated into the "pile of treasure" image of public finance.
On the other hand, for government investment that will increase the future productive capacity of the economy, it is hard to make the case that the government should refrain spending more on those projects than are collected in taxes, even in a period of sluggish growth such as the most recent expension, and certainly in the period during and immediately following a recession.
And there is a tremendous amount of public and private investment that can, and under a progressive agenda should, be pursued, from providing the infrastructure to make driving an option rather than a necesity for more transport tasks around the country, to installing the smart electric grid that we will require to allow for a larger share of electricity production from renewable sources, to substantial retrofitting of the existing housing stock to reduce energy inefficiency and increase energy production.
The most economically damaging aspect of the Bush deficit is not, after all, its size, but the location of the spending ... large military expenditures on ill-advised overseas adventures drives up the trade deficit, government investment spending is suppressed in the name of "supporting the troops", and the resources pulled into armaments production installs promotion of armament exports as part of the response to the trade deficit crisis that the focus on the military helped create.
November 13, 2006 9:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ditto
I much prefer Hoyer vs. Murtha.
I see no long term gain with Murtha as majority leader. He reminds me of a lummox. I think Pelosi is picking him based on a percieved sense of allegiance to her causes. And his ability to be obstreperous when prodded to.
November 13, 2006 9:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where is your evidence that "economic sanctions result[ed] in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children."
You can't just make an assertion like that with no evidence to back it up as if it is conventional wisdom.
What was your preferred policy back then? It's not like Saddam gave us good options. Surely you don't think we should have let his post '91 human rights violations continue without a word.
November 13, 2006 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree there is a case for Murtha, but there is more to life than getting out of Iraq. Getting out will be messy in any case, but it will get easier as the disaster continues to unfold. Murtha played an important role but as I said, I think his usefulness is over, and in politics what matters is what you can do for me today, not what you did yesterday.
Max B. Sawicky
http://maxspeak.org/mt
max@maxspeak.org
November 13, 2006 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's been well-documented, but I'm not going to go look for the cites. Ms. Albright did not deny it when asked.
As for alternatives, I agree that is a difficult question to answer. Ideally sanctions would have prevented imports of big-ticket military equipment, as well as WMD-related stuff, but not ordinary stuff. There was also the 'single-bullet' option for SH and his revolting offspring.
As for leaving Saddam be, you can always match his human rights record with the horrific aftermath of the U.S. invasion.
Max B. Sawicky
http://maxspeak.org/mt
max@maxspeak.org
November 13, 2006 9:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Actually that pretty much is the conventional wisdom. If you just type the phrase "economic sanctions result[ed] in the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Iraqi children" into google you can get to this following article in just a couple of clicks.
November 13, 2006 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
From my published in 1949 college text on Western Civilizations: "The Cost of Modern War." Total cost $1,384,900,000,000 (WWII)
A $16,000 house for every family in the US, Britain, France, Belguim, Spain, and Portugal; A $10,000,000 library for every city of 200,000 inhabitants and over in the US, Great Britain, and Russia; A $50,000,000 university for each of the (above) cities; A $2000 automobile for every family in the US, GB, France, the Low Countries, Denmark, and Norway; The salaries of 100,000 teachers and an equal number of nurses at $3000 a year for 100 years; A free college education (at an estimated cost of $6000) for every boy and girl in the US from 17 to 21 years of age.
It was probably because I read that in 1950 that every time we have a war, and that seems like all the time, I sigh.
November 13, 2006 11:03 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's always good to be reminded of the banality of most of the foreign policy proposals on offer here at Starbucks. I'd be happy to see Max at the Foreign Affairs desk.
The democrats have room to move. The election was a small victory for those who had opinions, but if the Dems go passive they'll lose the opportunity to build on that. Still, the American electorate may now be more internationalist than their leaders. Even losing the war, popular isolationism is over. Bush's policy of unilateral action and American exceptionalism was based on isolationism as manifested in indifference to others.
Now Olmert is pushing the neocon line on Iran, but so far the momentum is in the opposite direction. It should be made to stay that way.
Hillary and Barack "O-bomb-a" the A list are the least interesting people on the scene. The B list housemembers and senators and Dean's 50 state aganda is interesting.
November 13, 2006 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
What a cheap shot. Post after post here at the Cafe is anti globalization, seeks to make war on Wal-Mart, and at heart would like to see a European like welfare state.
What is also too common is thoughtless replies that call something a "strawman" when it is true and provides no cogent answer. This suggests an ideological rather than factual world view. Not all that different from the Bush like Right.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
November 13, 2006 11:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
You've always seemed like a reasonable guy Jay. What are some things you hope to see from the Dems this coming session? (after the lame-duck one).
November 13, 2006 11:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
You might want to rethink your assessment of John Murtha, Max. It's true that he's the most conservative democrat in the House outside of the deep south. He has defense industry pork problems, earmark problems & some past ethical improprieties, but in addition to being right about the Iraq war, he's also an economic nationalist who has voted against every single trade deal & opposes increased mexican immigration. I don't think there's anything much good about him personally, save a willingness to tell the truth about Iraq, but as he is a conservative trade reactionary, I figure he might be up you & your team's alley.
November 13, 2006 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
Where is the difficulty?
If you first determine trade is not a legitimate method of warfare except in particular instances (probably wouldn't have wanted to sell our WMD's to Saddam), then you can explore realistic alternatives for whatever it is you hope to gain.
It is not unreasonable to expect the sanctions strengthened Saddam and probably even enriched him rather than otherwise while killing tiny infants. Didn't seem wise to me unless one figured Saddam was still a CIA asset.
By the way this incorrigible person thought it a fine idea to take Saddam out since he kept shooting at us. I personally do not like people shooting at me. Raised wrong perhaps. Wasn't so keen on taking out hundreds of thousands of other Iraqis while building a new terror structure for the ayatollahs. Yeah I know we didn't get Saddam right away but then we didn't need to did we nor did it do any good for us to lay our hands on him.
Refreshing to hear from an actual liberal incidentally.
Best, Terry
November 13, 2006 12:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Talking reality on spending and taxes is a non-starter politically.
Exactly.
As to the stereotype, I plead guilty. I didn't say it was a winning political strategy. I said a winning political strategy is to reject genuine liberalism. Unfortunately.
cheers.
November 13, 2006 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, well, a "1" And I thought I only got those from Josh Marshall and M.J. Rosenberg. And who are you boy? One of those whiteboys who thinks NAFTA was good for the workers on the Mexican homefront? Or just one of those who doesn't give a shit one way or the other?
Genius. Sheer genius.
November 13, 2006 12:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
But gee, Phelicity, if we spend the billions on housing people, medical care, education, libraries and such, who is going to get to be able to make mega-profits on the side? If only Halliburton would take over all those entities they might get some attention. Of course it wouldn't filter down to actually housing people, educating students, or caring for sick people, but what the hey, at least our priorities would sound familiar!
Jan Knaus
November 13, 2006 12:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
You're working from within an outdated paradigm. If you look at what people want, based on surveys, they want pretty progressive policies and programs--ranging from universal healthcare to good environment, for starters.
If we pitch this as "We have to tax those bad superrich who have taken our money away," we get nowhere. If we pitch it as, "Everybody has to pay their fair share to help create this more perfection Union," it can win.
But the Dems yet haven't done the groundwork to create that paradigm. It's coming, though.
As for the comment about European-style welfare state, when you do an income and expenses per household comparison, on an apples-to-apples basis, European-style welfare state looks really good. The one downside is that it's much harder to get really rich.
November 13, 2006 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
No. Just a guy who thought your comment (and the majority of your comments) were unproductive. I also don't take it their are many "seth edenbaums" who aren't white boys themselves, so excuse your racial remark.
Why don't you go back to Indy Media and let the grownups discuss politics here, Ok? Thanks. Buh-Bye.
November 13, 2006 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I haven't noticed a trend from you so I countered DR. He may have a valid point if he sees an overall attitude he finds unhelpful.
November 13, 2006 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
The case for Murtha is that the Speaker gets along with him and they're loyal to each other -- Steny Hoyer, not so much.
Pelosi's got enough on her plate without spending the next two years guarding her flanks.
November 13, 2006 2:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
When I moved into the neighborhood where I ended up spending most of my childhood, the kids called my "whiteboy." By the time they stopped calling me that I'd gotten to understand why they considered it an insult.
Simple.
But you're right, I should have let someone else respond to your snide idiocy.
November 13, 2006 2:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
he's also an economic nationalist who has voted against every single trade deal & opposes increased mexican immigration.
That'll do.
Originally the economic rationale for Free Trade was constructed by the "classical economists" like Marshall . And for the first 40 years of his life Keynes accepted and brilliantly defended that reasoning. But by his mid 40s he changed his position and testified to Parliament that :"The virtue of protection is 'it does the trick' ".
The position he held for the remainder of his life.
I'm not aware of any new economic thinking in the years since that would have compelled Keynes to change his mind. Or me.
November 13, 2006 3:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
Er, what? No they aren't. That's completely absurd. The Democrats may be beholden to business interests to a greater extent than we'd like, but they still represent organized interests (particularly labor unions) that are opposed to business in many ways.
More than that, the Republicans' involvement with business interests has gotten to the point where the two are almost impossible to disentangle, where big business is paying for the Republican Party, and vice versa.
The Democrats aren't great, but they're nowhere near as bad as the Republicans on these kind of issues.
November 13, 2006 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
What a tool you are. Someone who you normally disagree with takes a stance you do agree with and you imply he's too stupid to be on your team.
I'm sure Max Sawicky is quite aware of Murtha's stance on trade bills.
And yet, he doesn't back Murtha. How incovenient for your team-vs-team mentality.
November 13, 2006 5:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's not conventional wisdom it's common knowledge. Though the precise numbers are in dispute, the term "hundreds of thousands" is not.
Here's one link
November 13, 2006 9:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
We shouldn't make war on Walmart? Anyone who knows how Walmart plays the game and knows the influence it has had on the American economy and the local communities in which it operates its stores and the states in which its workers must rely on welfare services should want to make war on Walmart.
I don't think most of the people here are against globalization, but they are against allowing the megacorporations to use globalization to drive more and more people into a life of working poverty while making a few people at the top richer than King Midas...
Do most of us here want a European-style welfare state? Probably not, since we're definately not run like a European-style welfare state. But do we want national health care? What's the intelligent argument against it? At at time that consciously-chosen (by Bushco and their supporters in both parties and the MSM) policies are driving more and more working-all-their-lives-with-nothing-to-show-for-it Americans ever closer to a constant state of living on the edge of losing everything, do we want a much larger support system (more accessible college education, health care, etc.) and a better safety net for the people that are made disposable and disposed of by those consciously-chosen policies? Yes, I think so.
I think that's what it means to be progressive.
(I think we now spend more on our military than the next sixteen or so nations combined. Do we really need to be increasing military spending?)
Of course, if you believe in Social Darwinism, then all of the above about class warfare, militarization, and the (un)survival of the clearly unfit sounds just about right.
Bushco delenda est
November 14, 2006 5:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steny Hoyer is against Net Neutrality.
November 14, 2006 8:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Steny Hoyer is against Net Neutrality
That would be consistent with the corporate interests of the DLC
November 14, 2006 8:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
They'll go for the low hanging fruit that's already in the hopper. Minimum wage increase. Abolition of oil subsidies, but not an excess profits tax. Some kind of useless symbolic thing on education. Reduction in student loan rates. They've gotta do something about the AMT, which will give them cover to raise marginal rates at the top end. More ambitious attempts at income redistribution will have to wait until after 08, when they may have enough votes in the senate to do whatever they want. I expect that anything they put on the floor will be broadly popular legislation that has been stifled for the last six years, which was the point I was orginally trying to make.
It'll be interesting to see whether they staunch the earmarks, and return to a more transparent process of legislation--or keep the apparatus constructed by the Republicans to keep the minority powerless.
November 14, 2006 8:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Well, I see below that Max owned up to this role. And you certainly have a point re globalization.
Nonetheless, I still prefer to see positions attributed to actual people, rather than "some people."
November 14, 2006 8:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
I subscribe to the conspiracy theory that they will be happy to be discredited, as long as they've driven the government so far over the fiscal ledge that it will be impossible for the government to grow ever again, and that it will be forced to contract and contract some more, limiting itself to paying interest on the debt and spending on defense --and little else.
In this, they may have succeeded, the ruthless, soulless bastards. The New Deal is dead, just as the Boomers are set to retire.
Great. Just great. Thanks a heap. Wish I had a trust fund to fall back on.
November 14, 2006 9:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
Same here. When we meet at the coffee shop after work at our second jobs one of these days, we can compare walkers.
November 14, 2006 9:16 AM | Reply | Permalink