It Is At An End: Iraq Pullout Time Table
The Times of London Reports that Time Table is Set.
The Times November 10, 2006Handover to Iraqi Army 'set for the end of next year'
By Ned Parker, Michael Evans and Richard Beeston
American and Iraqi officials have set a date for giving Iraq’s forces responsibility for security across the country.Under a plan to be presented to the UN Security Council next month, the Iraqi Government would assume authority from coalition troops by the end of next year.
Only hours after Donald Rumsfeld was replaced as US Defence Secretary, American, British and Iraqi officials spoke openly about accelerating the handover process.
It is at an end.
We knew that staying in Iraq was not for purpose, but for partisan advantage. The first piece I wrote on Iraq - in 2002 - argued that one primary motivation for going to war was the fiscal authority it would bring Bush. That fiscal authority has been used to full advantage, stuffing the pockets of friends of friends of George.
It is not clear that this is not a political slight of hand, which is intent on paralyzing debate until it is too late - but there is equally the problem that the purpose of the war - to win elections, generate corruption and create "Texas on the Tigris" - are also at an end. George W. Bush is now expendable. He is not a new Ronald Reagan, to be beloved by history, but a contender for epigram of failure, along with Hoover and Harding. It may be that this time table is a dodge, but it might well be true anyway. Does any Republican want to run in 2008 on the Iraq War? If there are bases with deployed soldiers - how can the avoid being targets. Faking withdrawal and fake withdrawal are two courses which might be taken, and are likely to be quashed by an election. If withdrawal has not happened by the end of 2007, it will by the end of 2009.
It is also clear that the obsession with rejecting timetables publicly - something which has been satirized in Doonesbury - comes from the reality that internal discussions in the Bush executive were about exactly that - timetables.
But while this phase of catastrophe is at an end, the problem of Iraq, and the middle east in general continues. The invasion was merely one episode in a history that stretches back before oil. Iraq has been a long term conflict zone since the destabilization of its nascent civilian government in the late 1950's. This accelerated with the rise of Saddam, and flowered with the Iran-Iraq War. It has not lifted since then for all intents and purposes. Millions have died because of this long running conflict zone.
Even after the last US serviceman leaves, Iraq will still be a disaster. Even after the last Halliburton hummer is off the streets, it will still be at a standard of living that resembles Hati.
Since US policy will not be in the hands of reasonable people anytime soon - if Paulson is any example we will see a kinder, gentler insanity at the policy helm, as the same unworkable nostrums are repeated in a less manic tone - the discussion among serious people must be what policy will be in 2009, and beyond.
Because while this war is at an end, America's involvement in Iraq, and the costs for it, are only beginning. The leadership which will be involved in that planning is already taking shape - Harry Reid, who has called for a Congress of Conscience to replace the ruthlessness of the Republican regime, and Nancy Pelosi, who has offered Bush a clear chance to work with, rather than against, the new Democratic Majority. As everyone can see, the Bolton renomination is a sign that these appeals for reasoned dialog are going to be ignored at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Thus, after giving the Republicans some due amount of time to established that they don't feel they were wrong, they aren't going to say sorry, and that it will probably happen again - it will be time for Democrats and independents, plus the odd sane Republican - to start imagining what we will do after the twilight of the clods in Iraq has come to a close.
It is clear that the 18 month time table being offered is unrealistic for the Iraqi government to maintain its security. What will happen is a defacto partition of Iraq, until there is the rise of a new strong man government. The entire war is, as it was always clear it was going to be, nothing more than a reboot of the dictator software, one with a very large bill. The collapse of the current government, with its trapings of a Democracy which is alien to Iraq, and hence doomed to be snuffed out by what is native - is a forgone conclusion. It is not that the various peoples - plural, not singular - of Iraq are not capable of self-government or Democracy. The Kurds learned it during a brutal civil war, the other peoples - plural - in Iraq are going through the same process. On the other side will be - something. But it is unlikely that they will get the time or space to accomplish it.
Lest we look down on this experience, realize that the United States has suffered two full scale Civil Wars - the American Revolution and the Civil War - as well as numerous episodes of political violence. Iraq may be convulsed with the horror of intercine warfare, but we still have words like Gettysburg burned on our consciousness.
This process cannot be significantly altered in its pace, in fact, making it more peaceful will only slow it down. Vietnam fought a political war, and is unified, Korea never got a chance to, and remains divided. This is not to say that war is better than a peaceful road, but it is faster. And the realization that peace trades time for blood cannot be avoided. This is often why peace is denied, because of a loss of patience.
Nor can the United States unilaterally alter the landscape, indeed the United States is soon to find that its credit is about to be yanked very hard by those that have tolerated George's adventurism, but have quietly counted up the bill that will come due the moment that the stability of the United States as central military power is not in doubt.
The United States can, however, aim for better or worse outcomes, and it must realize that the end of the Iraq adventure will bring with it a moment of balancing the scales.















The issue of Iraq is not only what I'd like to think of as an open ended war. The real issue of the war is in the lead, where in the war did it go wrong, your not giving me what there is in Iraq your giving me what there in war. The way the world works is all in motion in Iraq, giving you all the information not going in but comming from Iraq.
Your not going to Iraq for it's needs your going to Iraq for yours. Then why would anyone ask you to look into the issue.
November 9, 2006 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
It will not work to take a passive approach ot the end of the war in Iraq. In politics as in any form of conflict it is essential to exploit available openings. The objective of the Dems should be to relieve Bush of the role of Commander in Chief. Our moron president should be given a simple choice: he can live out his last two years as president and try to salvage some dignity or he can face impeachment and a subsequent visit to the Hague. If he wants to avoid total disgrace, he must turn over control of the Pentagon and the Iraq war to a bipartisan committee. The committee will nominate a Secretary of Defense and oversee all military activities. To avoid a similar fate the Vice President must agree to cease communications with all Government agencies and to assume no duties beyond the minimal responsibilities mandated by the constitution. The objective is not to extract revenge, but to prevent a stupid person from doing further harm and to break the control of his handlers. Further concessions can also be extracted to obtain full cooperation with unimpeded investigations into corruption, incompetence and malfeasance. A separate bipartisan committee can be established to handle any "presidential" appointments and to oversee the removal of stupid, corrupt and incompetent appointed officials.
November 9, 2006 8:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Four times a President has resigned or faced an impeachment vote.
In every case Congress manufactured the cause for the impeachment.
Impeachment flows from, it does not lead, a political courage. To get there there must first be an understanding that the Presidency itself is broken. To get there requires a determination to accomplish. That determination must be driven by the creation of just expectation, which is then denied.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 9, 2006 9:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
More killing, please!
November 9, 2006 9:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Any decisive action flows from two things: courage and a clear understanding that something must be done. It is also often helpful to actually know what has to be done. The greatest danger for the dems is that they will substitute cooperation for courage while sporadically indulging in emotionally satisfying gestures that accomplish nothing. They were actually quite good at that on the way to Iraq.
November 9, 2006 9:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
You don't think he'll match the record of 32 criminal convictions for administration members? Yeah, you're probably right that the timing will be tight, but we can try.
November 9, 2006 11:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
End of next year? This isn't a change of course; it is a stalling tactic designed to buy another year of domestic indulgence as the administration readies military action against Iran. Bush knows that once we are engaged against Iran, nobody will be arguing for removing our forces from Iraq.
November 9, 2006 11:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
Suppose Abizaid and Casey put in the formal request for more troops that they were hinting about before the election.
Would Democrats in Congress vote to authorize it and thus hitch themselves to responsibility for the war?
Or would they vote to refuse it and thus take responsibility for the defeat?
Or would they split over it with neither wing being able to defeat a Republican Presidential candidate in 2008?
I'm not an American so maybe I've missed something obvious about how the Democrats in Congress would react and how large sections of the party base would react.
But I would assume there is simply no way to avoid a split between a large section of the party base and a large section of its leadership on such a request for more troops.
So I am wondering whether the triumphalist tone that "It is at an end" is based on simply not even thinking about whether the military is going to ask for more troops.
Seems obvious that Stirling and most others here would oppose such a request and would be part of the large section of the party base that would oppose it and can easily reply with enormous amounts of argument and passion in favour of that position.
But that's not the question I'm raising, so please don't respond on those lines.
The issue I am raising is that Stirling's analysis does not seem to take into account the possibility of the Democrats splitting over a request for more troops.
If so, is that based on a belief that the Congressional leadership would agree with large sections of the party base and remain unified in voting not to authorize it?
Or is it based on a belief that no such request is conceivable?
Or is it based on simply not thinking about it?
I suspect the latter.
November 10, 2006 12:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
There is more killing coming, of that you can be sure.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 10, 2006 3:13 AM | Reply | Permalink
"That's not compatible with exiting Iraq according to your time table Mr. President".
There aren't the votes in the House or Senate for more troops.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 10, 2006 3:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
That level of clarity does not exist in Washington DC yet. Nor will it until they see a groundswell of support for impeachment.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 10, 2006 3:18 AM | Reply | Permalink
Funny, not one mention of oil. There will be no withdrawing. We will not be leaving without knowing for DEAD certain that the Iraq oil remains firmly in the grip of the US government, er.. Corporations- same thing. Why we went, and why we will stay.
November 10, 2006 3:46 AM | Reply | Permalink
Which is what I pointed out in the piece: just because Bush doesn't think he is making a promise, doesn't mean that the public won't decide a promise has been made.
The public wants out, and the Congress can be obstructionist simply by requiring that Bush submit both the revenue increases and the authorization for a draft with any request for new forces in Iraq.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 10, 2006 3:56 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've been against invasion of Iraq before most people knew there was going to be one.
Let me add to that, I was telling people that Iraq was a done deal before most people knew it was even on the agenda.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 10, 2006 3:58 AM | Reply | Permalink
It is no more than theoretical speculation since America's armed forces are even now stretched to and perhaps even beyond the breaking point.
But it is an interesting question whether the Democrats are still in thrall to fear of being labeled soft on terrorists.
You might want to watch what happens with votes on items like the Patriot Act. That will tell where the Democratic Party's center is rather than than votes, for instance, on gun control.
The accommodation of the right-to-life medievals and the mouthing of support for the middle class to the exclusion of the lower classes has been one very regressive step for Democrats.
Best, Terry
November 10, 2006 4:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Would Democrats in Congress vote to authorize it and thus hitch themselves to responsibility for the war?
Or would they vote to refuse it and thus take responsibility for the defeat?
Or would they split over it with neither wing being able to defeat a Republican Presidential candidate in 2008?
Avoiding this trilemma is one reason the Democrats must move aggressively to sieze control of the Iraq debate and get out ahead of Bush moves. The message should be something like this "The public has spoken, and it wants the United States to begin the process of exiting Iraq. There are reasonable debates about the timing, sequencing and modalities of our exit. But there is no question that the public is opposed to deepening our involvement, and now wants to move in another direction. We await serious proposals from the White House and Pentagon about exit strategies."
In the last few days we have heard many counsels of passivity from the pundits, suggesting the Democrats should lay low on Iraq and turn to other priorities. This is unacceptable. The Democrats now run the legislative branch of the government, and so the war is now half theirs. Either they begin right away to implement the public will, expressed unequivocally across the country in this election, or they pay the price of betraying the public trust.
I suggest they begin immediately by using their increased media power to communicate with the country by focussing on Iraq casualties - casualties with individual names, families and life stories.
November 10, 2006 5:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that the full impetus for impeachment has not yet arrived. It will grow as the truth is revealed to the American people in terms they can comprehend. My main point is that impeachment followed by removal from office should not be the ultimate goal. While emotionally satisfying, it could have many unintended consequences. The real aim is to separate this president from the exercise of the powers of his office, to pin him like a bug to a piece of fabric. He most of all must be brought to recognize his own impotence and ultimate worthlessness. The symbolism embodied in this will be woven into the American tableau and will strengthen democracy. Accomplishing this will require an alliance with members of the president's party who for their own reasons want to dismember him and the faction that supports him. What I propose is a brass knuckled exercise in bipartisianship and realpolitik.
Talk of impeachment may be premature, but it is not too early to start building the alliance. While we speak, the president's owners have set up a committee to assume his powers of commander in chief. They have already eliminated Rumsfield and are in the process of taking control of the Pentagon. This sorry excuse for a president will be emasculated. The only question is whether the operation will be performed by the monied interests or by representatives of the people.
November 10, 2006 6:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Interesting take. For the past several months, I have had an intuition that Bush would be impeached. It flows from prior intuitions about the extent to which the Administration has manipulated the strategy for victory in Iraq, by means of temporary detours and diversions, for politically expedient motives in its domestic electoral strategy and determination to buy time to keep the facade of victory alive. I'm all but certain that such diversions have been taken many times, and I believe that they have at least not helped the war effort. By now I have a very strong hunch that they have prolonged this war unnecessarily and are a substantial part of the "incompetence" that Bush seems so blithely willing to entertain.
Rove's ambition to create a permanent Republican majority, I believe, has played a huge role in these manipulations. One might think that this is another paranoid fantasy, but there have been way too many coincident developments to explain by chance.
So the question remains, to what extent has Bush been willing to go along with this, and here's the link to impeachment: where his perceived role in history, election by God to wage this war, and sheer addiction to notions of being "the decider" he is delusionary to the extent that means and ends are taken as a whole, the whole being his grandiosity.
The persona of an authoritarian fits perfectly here. And those who are devoted to the man are similarly delusionary. This is a closed family system writ large, and is a narcotic. Denial is a powerful defense, and in Bush's case, I think it is near complete where his war of choice is concerned - the war on terror, as he perceives it, is him and only him.
Wars are mother to so many delusions by so many individuals. I don't think we as Americans, even those who are steadfastly opposed to Bush and his policies, may not want to know what we ought to know, because it will deflate our perceived role in history. But there may be sufficient disillusionment to warrant impeachment.
November 10, 2006 6:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
Oh, impeachment, totally. I long for the late Clinton days, when we talked about nothing else, policy went on the back burner, and Clinton's own interest in Al Qaeda was dismissed as wag the dog. That was so much more fun than it'd be to bog down in dreary matters like withdrawal from Iraq, universal health care, or a higher minimum wage. Besides, once it succeeds, we'll get to see the first president ever governing from an undisclosed location, or maybe from the bushes with a shotgun.
John
http://www.haberarts.com/
November 10, 2006 6:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
If there were more troops to send, Bush could send them without further Congressional authorization. The only vote needed would be on the next supplemental appropriation.
November 10, 2006 6:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
FOREIGNID: 179169
FOREIGNPARENTID: 179154
FOREIGNCOMMENTERID: 13211
AUTHOR: whiterosebuddy
DATE: 11/10/2006 07:12:14 AM
November 10, 2006 7:12 AM | Reply | Permalink
Yep. Sounds good to me.I am just not certain how we go about 'separating' the CinC from exercising his power as President. Particularly a President, who is hell-bent on concentrating power in the executive branch and who has an atty general who has support his pursuit of unilateral power. Just what does brass knuckle mean here...are you not being metaphorical and are you suggesting a coup of our own Presidency by the CIA?
Are you referring to the 'daddy to the rescue' efforts surrounding Bush, which has been his lifelong pattern? Just as Baker and Scowcroft are the families 'consiglires' who have come to move Cheney off the board. Is Bush going to acquiesce to 'daddy's boys'? Is Gates the new CinC having once served under daddy?
Let the neutering begin!!!
November 10, 2006 7:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm certain, DEAD certain, that oil is in the matrix for "going forward" (makes me wanna puke everytime I hear that). But this war sure hasn't helped the flow of or control of in-ground oil. Under current conditions the options being thought of may not be readily apparent or of a nature that can be disclosed to the American public.
Re-alignment from "neutrality" within Iraq may be in the offing. Remember, these guys were dealing with Iran before the campaign (Reagan/ Carter) was finished.
November 10, 2006 8:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
My sense is that the numbers of troops that would be needed to "secure" Iraq (speaking in terms of a military operation - whether long-term security there can be achieved militarily is a much better question to ask) are far beyond what we're currently capable of deploying. And given Tuesday's results I think most everyone on the Hill knows that proposing a draft to support the Iraq endeavor would be political suicide. So, my response would be that it's inconceivable that Congress would vote to take the steps necessary to meet the troop request.
November 10, 2006 8:30 AM | Reply | Permalink
On impeachment:
Consider the consequences, President Cheney, the poster boy for neocon deadenders. Let history blister Bush and let's get on to practical matters.
On military requests for additional troops:
The military craft their requests based on mission. If their mission is earliest withdrawal, it would seem counterintuitive for them to request additional troops to implement that goal. The Bush chimeras of "victory" and "winning" are now obviously unachievable. Those ships sailed long ago. Bush probably needs significant additional pressure to confront reality. This should be the non-negotiable, bottom line of any "bipartisan" agreement.
From the national security perspective, the Rumsfeld "transformational" policy has arguably weakened our military establishment significantly, posturing it to deal with situations which the Iraq experience has proved obviously false. Democrats in Congress should examine this half-baked policy and make attempts to jettison it in favor of a more realistic defense posture.
November 10, 2006 9:23 AM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't it time to begin the "Who Lost Iraq" discussion? I will take a wild guess and go with Bill Clinton and the latter day Defeatocrats!
November 10, 2006 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
The "Daddy to the rescue" myth is a nice story line, but it is very misleading. Both George senior and junior are in the pocket of the monied interests that control the republican party. Senior may be a junior partner, but he is a long way from a majority shareholder. There clearly has been a division within the oligarchy. The president's handlers have abused their power and have failed to deliver. Now the real owners are stepping in. The Iraq Study Group is their creature. They have eliminated Rumsfield and are in the process of taking control of the Pentagon. Junior is very much not in charge and he never has been. The identity of the actual CinC is irrelavant to these people. They normally exercise power by committee, and it is a very cohesive committee that functions like a typical board of directors.
As the empire begins to fall, the real question is whether this oligarchy will stay in control or be replaced by agents who represent the people. Only if the latter occurs will there have been a revolution.
November 10, 2006 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
"President Cheney"
This is not correct. Impeachment is a majority vote in the House of Representatives, removal requires conviction in the Senate by a 2/3's vote, which is not happening. One must consider real, not fake, consequences for actions.
"From the national security perspective, the Rumsfeld "transformational" policy has arguably weakened our military establishment significantly, posturing it to deal with situations which the Iraq experience has proved obviously false. Democrats in Congress should examine this half-baked policy and make attempts to jettison it in favor of a more realistic defense posture."
A very accurate summary.
Stirling Newberry http://www.bopnews.com
November 10, 2006 10:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
What leverage does the Congress have in calling for a pull out reservists and the National Guard? We should never have allowed the reserve forces to remain for an open-ended occupation, and we certainly are undermining the reserves and National Guard in the future the longer we leave them in.
November 10, 2006 10:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
When the pundits find out that they can no longer sound like pundits calling for actively moving in one direction, then their fall back position seems to be calling for a cautious, passive response in the opposite direction.
November 10, 2006 10:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
So the Iraqis, as it turns out, think violence would go down if we'd set a deadline.
Democrats in both the House and Senate should loudly demand that Bush listen to the Iraqis since it is after all their country, and they therefore probably know at least something about their own politics.
It got lost in the news back in the spring, but at that time, 13 insurgent groups said they were willing to end their insurgency if the US would agree to set a 2 year deadline for withdrawal.
November 10, 2006 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
The leverage comes from the fact that we can hold hearing on the sorry condition of the reserves and the guard, hearings during which the country will hear many heartbreaking stories from the families of the reservists. In the end, Bush will be forced by public pressure to bring them home.
Democrats have an amazing opportunity to change the focus and tenor of the Iraq debate.
November 10, 2006 10:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think that could be particularly effective in the Midwest. We should also relentlessly point out how much money this war is costing and to what length Bush has gone to coverup how much the war is costing.
November 10, 2006 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some of the other responses seemed to just be confirmation that Democrats would in fact split over the appropriations required for more troops - mainly by declaring that support for such appropriations would be "inconceivable". I take that sort of position as confirming that the party could not remain united with people who regard each other's views as "inconceivable" working for a common Presidential candidate in 2008.
If I understood correctly, Stirling's response suggests that a sufficient number of Democrats (perhaps with some Republican support) would be able to block the appropriations and that the Democrats who do so would be able to avoid a split with their colleagues who vote in favour by adopting a much more polite stance than "inconceivable" that is less likely to provoke a split.
That more polite stance is That's not compatible with exiting Iraq according to your time table Mr. President.
Now Abizaid and Casey have already signalled that they will be requesting more troops after the elections, and (some) Democrats have been stressing their patriotic support for the military and their contempt for Rumsfeld's failure to provide sufficient troops initially.
So what makes Stirling assume that Bush will make life easier for the Democrats by agreeing to a timetable after having stressed so adamantly his opposition to one up to now?
It hasn't happened yet, and the article Stirling linked to is hardly proof that it will. (It's actually about a timetable for Iraqis assuming command responsibility leaving US troops in a support role rather than a timetable for withdrawing US troops from that support role).
Isn't Stirling's point that agreeing to a timetable for withdrawal would make it easier for Democrats to unite a strong argument that Bush won't be agreeing to any such timetable?
November 10, 2006 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Exactly, why waste valuable time and money on a dead end impeachment process, when there aren't the votes in the Senate to sustain it. It sounds just like the revenge talk that the GOP have been using to whip up their base. The Democrats can still cripple and scar Bush and blacken his legacy through very selective committee investigations and disclosures of corruption, while maintaining high ethical standards among their caucus members. That sets the stage for continuing Democratic control of Congress in 2008 and not the return of the DeLay clones.
"What will happen is a defacto partition of Iraq, until there is the rise of a new strong man government. The entire war is, as it was always clear it was going to be, nothing more than a reboot of the dictator software, one with a very large bill."
That is also the future I see for Iraq which means our grandchildren will be paying off Bush's War.
November 10, 2006 6:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
OK, that's one point of leverage, thanks. Are there any others?
November 11, 2006 2:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'll believe it when I see it. Timetables have a tendency to be extended as the events warrant it.
November 11, 2006 10:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
J. McCutchen
Not Quite at an End
November 12, 2006 3:47 PM | Reply | Permalink