TPMCafe
« Honor Our Service: Vote | Home | The "Progressive Plurality" Is Not Just Votes »

What If They Steal It?

user-pic

Last year I was an official US monitor of the Palestinian elections. Before election day, our delegation -- along with all the international monitoring groups -- were trained as to how to spot fraud, intimidation and other devices designed to prevent a free and fair vote.

In the end, the main US monitoring group, the National Democratic Institute (and the other monitors) were able to declare the elections honest.

Today I am thinking of the Palestinians, the Ukranians, Lebanon, Serbs, Iraqis and the dozen of other nations whose elections have either been deemed "free and fair" or been told to go back and try again (as in Ukraine and Haiti).

What if international monitors came over here to watch our elections. According to Jimmy Carter, head of US election monitoring abroad, his Carter Institute would not even undertake the task because elections here are so blatantly dishonest.

Look at this year's election: the robocalls, voter suppression attacks, intimidation of minority voters, massive cash infusions, etc.
Yes, I know that most of this stuff is not illegal but rather only fundamentally undemocratic.

But what happens if the tactics succeed? What will we do if, when the votes are counted, it turns out that the scummy tactics won?

Will we just say "on to '08" or will we follow the Ukranians and others and fight back. After all, the advent of the blogosphere means that we can easily mobilize huge numbers to protest an illegal election. Will we do it?

Look, I think we are going to win. And if we lose, we could lose fair and square, I guess. But if it turns out that the '06 election was neither free nor fair, will we take a page from people all around the world and fight back. Or will we just sigh and say "we'll just have to work harder next time."

In the spirit of Sam Adams (not only the beer, but the man), I say we push back.


32 Comments

| Leave a comment

The 2000 election was stolen, and we did nothing. In fact, we did so much "nothing" that the goose-steppers and ignoramuses in this country managed to RE-elected Bush in '04. I'd love to hear some real ideas about what we can do to push back, as you say, because if the Democrats don't nail it down this time, we ought to riot....er, I mean, we ought to exercise our right to peaceably assemble and petition the government for a redress of grievances. Yeah, that's it.

Why do you use the word, "if"?

The Republican Party has embarked on a general policy of suppressing Democratic votes. They've been doing it in election after election since 2000. It always succeeds to some extent. Always.

It will succeed to some extent in this election, even though Democrats will gain a majority in the House and a majority of Governorships.

The real question ought to be, with what may be the last opportunity Democrats get to share in political power in this country, will they act to turn back voter suppression.

Or, will they complacently allow fascism to march on?

I'm most worried about computer fraud in the voting machines, and would expect that it's most likely where the races are close enough to have a Republican win be plausible. 

For the life of me, I can understand why there's not more public opposition to systems where the code and hardware are proprietary and beholden to vendors, who are prone to be partisan (Diebold).

This is one thing that's so important that the code ought to be open, as in Open Source, and subject to public and independent audits.

The paper trail thing isn't as attractive as it sounds, since there's no way to get all the voters and their little slips of paper together again to do a recount. So what if I bring mine back in? Without everyone doing that, it's a meaningless exercise.

We the People ought to own the code our democracy runs on.

And I would say this were Dems in charge. I frankly don't trust anyone who's in power all that much. It's the founding principle or our Constitution, so I'm in good company. :-)

 

Or, will they complacently allow fascism to march on?

Hmmm? Let's see now...how have they been doing so far?

"According to Jimmy Carter, head of US election monitoring abroad, his Carter Institute would not even undertake the task because elections here are so blatantly dishonest."

If memory serves, Carter was not dismissing the quality of all American elections. He was speaking about Florida in the last Presidential race.

What JC  said was that if the Carter Center was asked to observe elections in Florida, they would have to decline, because the electoral regulatory environment in Florida falls below the threshold the Center applies for undertaking observation missions.

This means that Florida electoral mechanics fall below Nicaraguan electoral mechanics.

Professor John Stuart Blackton

Rosenberg is correct about Carter's remarks, though "blatantly dishonest" was not a characterization he made.
This was in an interview with NPR from Nicaragua, where Carter is assisting in monitoring the election. Carter cited at least half-a-dozen factors in current U.S. elections that would disqualify us from monitoring by the Carter Center.

I think that paDem's points here are good. We shouldn't put too much trust in anybody; open source code is good (and I believe has been shown to be more secure than proprietary code).

Assuming that Democrats succeed in taking control of some part of Congress, they would be well-served to move in the direction of national standards of voting with paper trails. Personally, I like scanable paper forms, which are reliable and automatically create a paper trail. If electronic machines are used, they must print out each voter's ballot when it is tallied (I think two paper copies are called for: one saved for recount purposes, and the second given to the voter, both with matching, unique ID numbers). The focus of this should be protecting against computer malfunction and ensuring fair elections, more than fraud issues (which are too easily portrayed as scare tactics).

If they steal it, the talking heads will once again blame the exit polls.

As always, the best statistical methodology available will get trumped by unshakeable faith in Democracy Inc. Fundamentalism vs Empiricism... Faith versus Science... all the same issue, just played out from time-to-time in the political arena.

I'm glad you wrote about this, since it occurs at a time when, for the first time, am willing and ready to engage in civil disobedience. Not alone dependent on the results of the vote today, but because I have the intuition that, regardless (or even because of, if Dems win or win big) the authoritarian trend will not cease, and in intensity and illegality may well increase. Remember, Bush/Cheney/Rove have shown any partiality to any constituency that opposes it. Further, the campaign we have witnessed by the Administration in all likelihood redouble, demagoging any issue or wedge to cast Democrats, individually and collectively as obstructionist and defeatist, whether Democrats are or not.

Karl Rove means to have his permanent Republican majority by any means possible and feasible, legally or illegally. Anything will be exploited. All mud all the time if need be.

How may that be? Is it really possible? The administration and Rove have shown no compunction about undoing democratic institutions and checks, etc., and now Republicans will be on notice to comply, or die. Moreover, many of these illegalities are done in plain sight, flaunting their ability to undermine, and by whipping up the base and commentariat, and overwhelm opposition. They aren't half-way done.
The key to their method and madness is classic authoritarianism, mixed with classic methods of pitting group against group, interest against interest, and constantly stirring the pot of disunity and despair.

We say they can't succeed if Democrats are in power, that their power will be checked. Perhaps, but don't bet on it. As one prominent political insider remarked, "don't ever bet against Karl." Game ain't over until, as our Great Leader puts it, "until the job is done." Our freedoms and civil rights and constitutional protections are fair game when the game is win-at-all-costs.

If I sound alarmist, I don't mean to persuade you, I'm just saying what I've been contemplating that tells me "if not now, when!").

For the life of me, I can['t] understand why there's not more public opposition to systems where the code and hardware are proprietary and beholden to vendors, who are prone to be partisan (Diebold).

Seriously? OK, what are we looking at, a possible 45% turn out this go around (37% in 2002)? Then you have to understand that much of the public has swallowed hook line and sinker the idea that privatization of public services is good. Heck, the U.S. Mail isn't even a government function anymore. Then there was that inane clatter about how these computer voting machines were a solution to the "problem" of hanging chads and the like. I really get a laugh out that one, sheesh-louise. Oh, and don't forget the ol' one eyed monster, the boob-tube, the larger than life, flat screen, digital wonder, if it were really all that bad my TV woulda told me so. Oh, one more (I swear), don't forget the $2.6 Billion a year people hand over in online scams. If they are willing to hand over the credit card so easily do you really think they get the idea of Open Source coding?

No, no, what we've got (for the most case) is a naive, easily distracted electorate under the sway of the MSM that just doesn't get what the hell is going on. I wish so very much that this wasn't the case. And I agree whole heartily with your sentiments about would ought to be.

Exit polls? What exit polls. I understand that they've been cut way, way back this year.

Don't forget, civil disobedience is only effective when applied towards a very clear and easily definable goal that has potential mass appeal. Pressure points. And it works best when you can use the force of your enemy against your enemy. Civil disobedience is a form of political judo.

It is useless and counterproductive when used for its' own sake.

For example, would you be calling for mass demonstrations to get Lieberman seated if it became clear that the Republicans won that election by fraud?

They're being majorly controlled - see here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2006/11/election_time.html

Again, standard democratic process in most of the Western world is for exit poll results to be embargoed until polls close... bit of a problem here in the States given the size of the country, but anyhow this is the plan for 2006.

The main point, however, is that exit polls are generally accurate, and they are highly valued indicators of a fair election (or not).

But my argument however is that on their own, discrepancies between the exit and the actual poll wouldn't trigger a serious protest a la Ukraine. You see, we still have such unshakeable faith in Democracy Inc, that you can't really evisage a popular uprising even if presented with prima facie evidence of electoral fraud. Too many people would simply refuse to believe it.

As someone who makes his living selling his own Open Source software I'm a strong supporter of Open Source. But, Open Source would not solve anything in voting machines. The problem always comes down to policing the code at the time it was compiled, either before entering the machine or at runtime. Either way involves policing that would have to be done by some sort of certified programmers representing both or many parties. That will NOT instill confidence with the general public.

Voting software should not be judged by a standard that is not used for other software. Software is always evaluated by it's results, not by the code or by the testimony of the author or even other users.

So how do you test the results of voting software? You triangulate the results. Tabulate the vote electronically and print two receipts sharing the same unique ID number generated at runtime that does not identify the voter. One receipt goes into the old familiar "ballot box" (one per machine), the other one the voter takes home. The electronic votes are published on the internet within X hours after the tally is made official. Publish not just the tallies but the actual individual votes, by ID number. Voters can therefore verify that their receipt matches their vote used in the tally. Any voter can therefore challenge the count of their vote. If X percent of challenging receipts (and matching receipts from the "ballot box") is reached, the "ballot box" count becomes the official count for that machine.

This system does require policing, but it's policing of small packets of votes which by themselves would not dramatically change an election unless the same policing corruption could be duplicated on a wide scale. Policing the code is a much more dangerous proposition, since a corruption of the policing function at that level could change millions of votes in microseconds. Plus, the dual ballot receipt method instills confidence since each voter is involved in the policing process instead of relying on some geek with high water pants, mismatched socks and a bad hair cut.

Having been involved with the Open Source community for over a decade I really doubt that any Republicans are going to trust this anti-capitalist gang of socialists anymore than Democrats are going to trust the software company that runs the banking industry (Diebold).

we still have such unshakeable faith in Democracy Inc, that you can't really e[n]visage a popular uprising even if presented with prima facie evidence of electoral fraud. Too many people would simply refuse to believe it.

Absolutely right! Two years ago is a perfect example.

BTW, I am unable to get that page to come up. A check of BBC Blogs doesn't help me. But, this brings up an interesting question. Would it not be worthwhile for international news media to conduct exit polls in the U.S. if the U.S. media won't? Maybe Iran or France might chip in.

Try this link.

Voting machines are in my nightmares. But then, I'm a Palm Beach County voter, so what the hell.

Senator Chuck Hagel R-NE, still owns shares of ES&S voting systems (through McCarthy Group -MGI). Supposedly they are a blind trust, but they are listed as "excepted" on his personal disclosure form.

In 1996, Chuck Hagel ran for the US Senate against Ben Nelson, who was the governor of Nebraska at the time. Although many people believed he had no chance of winning at all, he won a stunning upset in the election, receiving 54% of the votes (Nelson was later elected to Nebraska's other Senate seat, in 2000).

Among other states, ES&S has voting machines in CA, FL, KY, IA, MI, MN, LA, TX and WA.

ES&S is not open source, although I'm not sure what they are. Do you?

"...it was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." GWB, 6/29/06

Don't forget, civil disobedience is only effective when applied towards a very clear and easily definable goal that has potential mass appeal.

The war. I expect it will not end despite vague non-specific suggestions to the contrary coming the administration; nor will moves to roll back civil rights and suppress access to information and intimidate and pressure MSM abate. The blogosphere by itself is virtually useless to press for counteraction. Dems, despite brave talk, are easily cowed in fact, fearing alienating voters.

And it works best when you can use the force of your enemy against your enemy.

Yes, and suppression of free speech and access would be countered by aggressive and unrelenting demand for open inquiry and facts - and assertion of free speech. Remember, the tactics of civil disobedience become necessary when government refuses or strongly resists redress of grievances.

For example, would you be calling for mass demonstrations to get Lieberman seated if it became clear that the Republicans won that election by fraud?

No, that would be silly and counterproductive.

What I'm saying is, for the first time, I'm willing to participate in an act of civil disobedience to protest the war etc., and toward the end of motivating others to make visible and palpable their intention to stop the momentum to suppress, control and manipulate free expression.

Really, I don't know that ending the war at once altogether will help the civil liberties situation. It might exacerbate it. But I am convinced that the war on terror(ism) blah blah blah, is a pretext for suppression, and suppression unopposed or weakly resisted emboldens the administration to continue with both the war and suppression.

Re: If they steal it, the talking heads will once again blame the exit polls.


That won't fly this time. In 2004 and 2000 the polls showed a dead heat, and the results were close. This time there are too many races where the Dems are head by a decisive margin. Should the GOP "win" in those races (assuming the exit polls bear out the earlier polls too) that would be pretty solid evidence of fraud, at least as solid as the evidence was in the Ukraine stolen election a few years bac.

Re: For the life of me, I can understand why there's not more public opposition to systems where the code and hardware are proprietary and beholden to vendors, who are prone to be partisan (Diebold).


Actually, there is a lot of opposition. For example in Tallahassee voters are being given a choice between the computerizerd systemsand the old punch-paper system. Guess what-- as of this morning at least 90% of the voters were opting for the old ballots.
Short of passing a referrendum though (maybe that's an idea?) there's nothing the voters can do about what sort of voting machines they use.

So how do you test the results of voting software? You triangulate the results. Tabulate the vote electronically and print two receipts sharing the same unique ID number generated at runtime that does not identify the voter. One receipt goes into the old familiar "ballot box" (one per machine), the other one the voter takes home. The electronic votes are published on the internet within X hours after the tally is made official. Publish not just the tallies but the actual individual votes, by ID number. Voters can therefore verify that their receipt matches their vote used in the tally. Any voter can therefore challenge the count of their vote. If X percent of challenging receipts (and matching receipts from the "ballot box") is reached, the "ballot box" count becomes the official count for that machine.

This is a very interesting solution. I would like to see something like this implemented, and would work to that end. I'm not optimistic of our chance, though, but it's still the kind of thinking that would increase my confidence that my vote is secure.

I hate to wish for a major screwup, but it's like the old saying about "tombstone technology" the FAA uses to describe safety improvments that airlines will pay for in airplanes only after a few hundred citizens get spread over a cornfield somewhere. Some demonstrable fraud in elections somewhere would have to preciptate the kind of public awareness that such a change would need. Unfortunately, the people who would be able to hack enough machines to steal an election would probably also be able to cover their tracks.

Dems in the House should take the issue public.

**I am assuming that the Dems will win the House.**

That said....

The House Judiciary Committee should hold hearings

  • Get the RoboCallers under oath and on the nightly news.
  • Get the photographs and names GOP honchos who contracted them in the NYTimes.
  • Put Blackwell under oath over Ohio 2004
  • Put Katherine Harris under oath about her role in 2000
  • Make Ken Mehlman deny under oath that he had nothing to do with the vote suppression, and then indict his ass for contempt of congress.
  • And add to these national folks a few of anti-hispanic the gun toting poll watchers from the southwest, and you might just have a real media spectacle that even Len Downey and Lou Dobbs can understand.

    the people who would be able to hack enough machines to steal an election would probably also be able to cover their tracks.

    Exactly! Microsoft once dreamed of being the channel for all online credit card transactions with their Passport. And it was a good idea that was code solid. But no one trusted Microsoft to handle the transactions AND the operating system, just way too much opportunity for hidden code that could never be found doing Bill knows what with the data.

    Actually the best, most secure method, imho, is to scrap the voting booth altogether. Oregon is running it's 5th cycle of elections with no voting stations at all. It's all Mail In Voting, with 84% turnout and not an accusation of fraud from either side.  Voters have ballots for 2 weeks before the deadline.

    But, I'm afraid the rest of us like the sheer spectator sport too much to go for something so sensible.

    Oregon did pass such a referendum in 1998. They did away with voting stations altogether. They vote only by mail and it WORKS!!

    "...it was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." GWB, 6/29/06

    And it still isn't a given!!! It takes work, it doesn't just happen :-)

    "The paper trail thing isn't as attractive as it sounds,"

    You've totally misunderstood it.

    Here's how the paper trail works on an electronic voting machine. The machine prints out a paper statement of your vote. You read it and verify it (and if it's not right, you reject it and complain to the election judges). Then it goes into a locked ballot box. You do *not* take the paper away with you, *eveer*. In case of a recount, the ballot box is opened and the paper ballots are counted.

    The only problem with this is that you have very little recourse if the machine misprints the ballot, besides complaining.

    The better system is simply to fill out a paper ballot yourself (or with machine assistance if, for instance, you're blind), and then place it in a ballot box.

    The retro appeal of paper ballots has its quaint charms, but they're not a panacea. They'll mostly be scanned, so technology will enter again. I could feel that vividly last evening, when my district's machine was busted, so I was trying to color in the SAT-like blob just the right way. But that's just the hardware question of optican scanning. Think of the software that will process the data. 

    Of course, yes, electronic machines should create paper receipts, assuming the voter is pressed to use an opportunity to look at them and thus confirm they give the right result, too.

    And of course for now we have to keep hammering at the present-day problem, apart from future technology: GOP voter suppression. They've already been stealing elections the old-fashioned way, in the long tradition of their dealings with people of color. At least they refrained from threats of outright lynching in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004 (so far as I know).

    John

    http://www.haberarts.com/

    My mother has for the last ten-or-so years been part of the voting staff at a voting station. Their job in the evening ends with vote counting of papers ballots for hand.
    The results are confirmed in a second counting a few days later, done by other people somewhere else. The errors use to be small to very small with differences in one or two-digit numbers.

    (Yes, this is overseas.)
    (And, no, there are no mashines involved what-so-ever. The voting register is on paper, the ballots are of paper, and you don't need to punch anything anywhere.)

    Whether such a system is possible or not is most of all a matter of how it's organized.

    But it is kind of ironic that Americans talking so much about democracy abroad make the U.S. system only less and less reliable.

    Maybe it's time for a change?

    "Yes, this is overseas." Yes, try implementing it for New York City, and you'll realize why voting machines came into existence in the first place. indeed, it wasn't just to save money and to ensure reporting of results within, oh, a month (which furthers democracy, it seems to me). It was also to enfranchise people. If you thought ballots were stuffed and lines were long in Ohio in 2004, imagine the paper process nationwide. My district had huge lines, while the others in the room had none. I seem to recall that lines in Ohio both kept people from voting, period, and discouraged others.

    John 

    http://www.haberarts.com/

    I know I'm rubbing it in on nostalgia for paper, but two other points. First, it doesn't eliminate technology even if you do not scan. At some point, numbers get entered into a system to be tallied. Yesterday some scanned votes had to be retallied because someone admitted to an honest mistake, of hitting the wrong button and deleting them, but that they were scanned rather than counted made no difference.

    Second, the Times "Editorial Observer" today on GOP dirty tricks at the box office in Westchester.

    The Democrats were particularly on the lookout for efforts to push voters into using paper ballots instead of voting machines. It’s a familiar vote-suppression tactic, since paper ballots are susceptible to technical flaws and are frequently thrown out.

    Need I bring up the hanging chads? And again, don't forget the biggest fight of all, which is to manage the (paper) voter registration lists. 

    John

    http://www.haberarts.com/

    The point is not nostalgia for paper, but basic principles such as reproducibility and transparency.

    The number of ballots must fit with the number of participating voters, the ballots most be kept and stored in such a way as to make tampering as unlikely as only possible. The first vote counting must not be delayed while the ballots are out of sight and at risk for being replaced, and differences between first and later countings must be monitored. Logs over voters must be as guarded as the ballots.

    Physical ballots and voting logs done by pen on paper make a more reliable system. Be the ballots in paper, plastics or anything else.

    Using pen as a voter to mark one's choice on paper ballots does not introduce bias if it's the rule everywhere.

    It's a matter of the system's legitimacy.
    If people don't trust the process, of course they can't trust the outcome.

    Leave a comment

    Advertisement
    Please disable your adblocker!
    Ads are how we pay the bills!

    Subscribe

    The Coffee House
    TPMCafe's regulars

    House Brew
    From Your Cafe Editor

    Special Guests
    Big names and big brains

    Special Features
    Pressing topics and trends

    Table for One
    An expert's week-long talk.

    All Reader Posts
    TPM readers discuss.

    Advertise Liberally
    Share
    Close Social Web Email

    "To" Email Address

    Your Name

    Your Email Address