Over the Rubicon, Into the Styx
The Baghdad security plan continues to have a dampening effect on sectarian violence. . .Extra U.S. troops dispatched to Baghdad have had a decisive effect. . . Iraqi security forces operating in and around Baghdad also are making significant contributions in reducing the violence, he added.
When October ended Iraqi insurgents had killed 105 American soldiers and wounded over 900. We have not seen casualties like this since January of 2005. So much for reduced violence. But that is only the tip of the iceberg of mayhem that is now Iraq.
Besides mounting U.S. and Iraqi casualties, this week was marked by three other ominous developments:
- Iraqi Prme Minister Maliki sided with the militia of Moqtada al Sadr and ordered U.S. troops to end their siege of Sadr City.
- Major U.S. contractors (e.g., Bechtel, Kroll, etc.) announced they are withdrawing personnel from Iraq because it is too dangerous. (I guess they missed General Casey's upbeat assessment.)
- Central Command military analysts peg the situation as sliding towards chaos.
Maliki's move to restrict the operations and movement of U.S. forces in Iraq is only the first shoe to drop. Until now the United States has enjoyed unfettered access to plan and conduct counter terrorist operations. The ambush of Al Zarqawi in June, for example, was carried out without prior permission or coordination with the Iraqis. We are now on the path where U.S. forces will face growing restrictions on what they can do and where they can do it. This will enable the various terrorist forces to regroup and will feed a growing spiral of violence.
Maliki's order to open Sadr City also is a reminder of the power Moqtada al Sadr wields behind the scenes. It was only two weeks ago that al Sadr's forces stormed into the Iraqi city of Amara, burned several police stations and killed several police. It may not be the only militia in Iraq but it is certainly one of the most powerful and clearly has the ear of Prime Minister Maliki. Oh, and someone under Sadr's direct control is holding a U.S soldier prisoner. In light of our own questions about the legitimacy and applicability of the Geneva Convention when you are fighting terrorism, we may have trouble persuading the Shia militia to treat the U.S. soldier humanely.
And then there is the retreat of U.S. corporations from Iraq. Rather than wait for helicopters landing on the roof of the U.S. Embassy in the Green Zone to effect their strategic retreat, I guess they have decided preemption is a better course of action. Would they be leaving if things were going well and victory on the horizon? No and hell no.
Finally there is the leak of a powerpoint slide from Central Command's daily intelligence assessment. The media and pundits were all atwitter over this but they are like cave fish who have discovered that the sun rises every day. This is not a new briefing. Central Command, the military command in charge of Iraq, has been tracking this activity for more than two years. The analysts have given weekly assessment tracking these trends. Like all good analysts, they are telling the truth as they know it rather than the fantasy their bosses would like to hear. In fact, this information was available to the nitwit General Casey, who announced last week that things were swell in Iraq. I don't know who leaked the chart, but God bless them. It divulges no sources or methods. But it does blow the bullshit whistle on the White House and DOD spin.
So what is our metaphor to capture this moment? Have we crossed the Rubicon? The Romans' point of no return? Or, are we thrashing about in the Styx, the river in Greek mythology, "where the wrathful and sullen are punished by being perpetually drowned in the muddy waters"? Given our goober of a President, I thing a more apt image is Shit Creek. We're up it without a paddle. Let us pray that next week's elections pluck our Republic from danger and put our feet back on solid ground.
Look Goobers, lets be clear. The campaign against Sadr city was not directed against Sadr or the Mahdi Army, or at least it was not effective in that sense. What it was directed against was as a punitive campaign against a civilian noncombatant population, not actually in a state of revolt or uprising, of two to three million in the heart of Baghdad.
Undertaking a campaign against millions of helpless civilians in the middle of the largest city in Iraq could have no other effect than to trigger a confrontation between a US supported *elected* civilian leadership and the military occupation.
Maliki had no choice but to stand up to you. Once he did, there was no choice but to either back down, as you did, or simply destroy any shred of legitimacy to Maliki or any other Iraqi government under occupation.
It was entirely a manufactured and unnecessary confrontation, and it lead inexorably to inevitably disastrous outcomes.
In terms of the greater campaign... it was flat idiocy. It was an appalling waste of resources, an appalling loss of face, an appalling instance of bickering and incompetence, in the face of both Sunni and Shiite.
Historians may look back at that little debacle and compare it to the spanish civil war when communists were busily purging their fellow Republicans while ignoring Franco's growing conquests.
You're in a war. You're losing. And you played this game? Jesus H. Christ on a Crutch!
This was the moment that decided the whole war. It was the moment where America proved it was too stupid to win.
November 2, 2006 2:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
You have put your finger on the pulse. When you conduct conventional military ops against an unconventional force who hides among a civilian populace, you almost certainly will kill and inconvenience more innocent folk than foes. But, as a result of this activity, you will boost recruiting for the "bad" guys and weaken public support for our guys.
Not exactly our finest hour.
November 2, 2006 2:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
We're five days away from finding out if enough Americans are paying attention. I've been amazed at my brethren's inability to grasp even the most simplist of concepts. I don't hold out much hope, but we shall see.
November 2, 2006 2:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gee, is somebody going to tell Joementum, the DLC, and all those blue dog and DINO radical centrists who won't have the guts to get us out of Iraq defeated or not.
November 2, 2006 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
2 billion dollars a month.
for 15 million, they could have fixed the levee systems in New Orleans,
but Bush cut the proposed plan about %90
citing the $ was needed for war on terror .
just had to get that out of my system.
By the way, i think Laura Bush had tried to build a hospital there, and it went belly up.
they cant finish it, cos of security concerns, so theres a few more billion down the toilet.
Brad
New Orleans
911review.org
November 2, 2006 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
Jeez, where to start.
It seems our guy in Baghdad, al-Maliki, has learned his lessons well. Taking a page out of the Little Prince's play book, he's figured out that all you need to do is label someone a "terrorist" or "enemy" and you can just kill them. No sweat. Police in Amara? Please. Those were terrorists and not entitled to any rights so they were eliminated.
General Casey. Inserting himself in domestic politics is utterly disgraceful. The timing of his upbeat announcement was no mistake. He has sullied the name of the military he swore to serve. Too bad he has a boss that agrees with and supports him. A better man would have jerked his ass out of Iraq, busted it down a few grades and kicked it out of the Army.
Finally, the irony of mercenaries leaving Iraq because it is too dangerous cannot be missed.
November 3, 2006 1:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
The sad thing is that anybody with half a brain could figure this out. Therefore Casey is just as dumb as Bush, Cheney, and Rummy.
Tom
November 3, 2006 2:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
It seems increasingly that the United States Armed forces have become some sort of murder suicide pact.
November 3, 2006 2:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
And then there is the retreat of U.S. corporations from Iraq..
Why are there no Republicans pointing out that the private sector has cut and run?
"...it was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." GWB, 6/29/06
November 3, 2006 4:45 PM | Reply | Permalink