Although mid-term elections are supposedly always about local politics, this election has morphed into a referendum on Iraq -- stay the course or leave in an orderly manner -- and the Bush Presidency -- grant the President continuing authority to act in his unfettered way, as a unitary executive, with all that entails, or clip his wings. The Democratic Party did not intend either of these two questions until about two months ago, but Lamont's victory in the Nutmeg State primary and ensuing polling across the country caused virtually all Dems in serious races (probably really no more than about 60, or no more than 15% of Congressional seats!) to run campaigns that linked the President's war and his general behavior to the local Republican.
In response the Republican Party has offered essentially no agenda of any kind, and instead tried to avoid the referendum by playing the race card in Tennessee, attacking fiction in Virginia, making fun of Michael J. Fox in Missouri (that got out of control in a hurry!),and so forth. But the two questions have nevertheless been put into nearly every contestable election, mostly because the people want them asked and answered. If the Supreme Court had done its job, the referendum would be much fairer, but because one man-one vote is no longer the law of the land, an answer against the Republicans will be delivered only if there is as much as a 13% margin in aggregate voting that translates into the switch of one of the Houses of Congress. Doubtlessly the MSM will declare that the President is vindicated in all respects, and we will stay the course in Iraq, unless that 13% margin is produced and at least one House switched. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised to see the MSM declare Rove to be a genius and the President re-endorsed even if the R's lost both Houses, provided that the margins are small. Under this standard, namely, an election so gerrymandered that Rove cannot lose big, this genius label seems easy to win, but what do I know?