People under the Soviet Union used to acidly quip that there was "No Truth in News, no News in Truth" - because the main state press organs were ???????? - "News" - and ?????? - "Truth". Isvestia was recently bought by state owned Gasprom, and so has gone back to its roots as an organ of government. In the United States, it is becoming uncomfortably like reading Pravda and Izvestia from the days of the USSR. For your consideration this piece of outright propaganda by Michael Grunwald of the Washington Post - it covers the news, but in both senses of the word. Note how carefully he avoids coming out and telling the truth - that it is Desperate Republicans that are going all out to pure smear.

But the desperation isn't limited to ads that make dishonest insinuation, race baiting analogies and cable channels that are now running Republican apologist screamers in a tight loop - it is all the way into what was once called "the mainstream media". A term that needs, like "def", a formal funeral.

The reality of our media system is that CNN and ABC are competing with an altnerative media. Not the internet, which they see as still being sourced from them, and which they are getting the advertising dollars for - but the Christianist sphere of religious radio and right wing outlets. People who think that Rush Limbaugh is America's most reliable news broadcaster. As long as the internet left doesn't make the profits, the old media will continue to assume that it isn't a threat. Thus they must pander to the right, because that is where their profitable competition is, and that is where their marginal viewers are. Added to this the economic incentive to have large tax breaks for the owners of said media companies, and the flow of corrupt money that the Republicans have laddled out as the budget, and you have an almost irresistable force that makes the top down media not very much more than an organ of the Republican state.

Let's take a look at two very specific talking points that are being thrown around, which indicate that the top down media is a system by where the immoral employ the innumerate to spew to the idiotic - namely Bush's assertion that nominal Dow highs and lower gas prices represent a triumph of his making the wealthy virtually tax exempt.

First the assertion about gas prices being down. The data and caveats are here. Now for the summary - gasoline prices are down from all time real consumer peaks - however they are higher than any time during the 1990's, and in fact, higher than any time from 1990-2004. We are back down to where we were before Katrina and Rita disrupted gulf oil supplies. Which is to say, gasoline is still high in real terms. I note that Republicans like to use the price of crude adjusted for CPI, which makes no sense - consumers don't buy barrels of crude oil to put in their living rooms. Adjusting for PPI - that is what producers pay for goods, materials and components - oil spiked above its all time high, and is still higher than most of the post war period.

Second let's take a look "ALL TIME DOW HIGHS!". Umm. No. Not in any sense that really matters. It's mostly a few stocks that have gotten hot. To look at the whole market in real terms, one needs to look at the S&P500 for US stocks, and one needs to take into account the cost of money. One way would be to use short term rates, another, inflation. I'm going to use inflation data here.

The data is here. I'm going to take the broad S&P 500 and adjust for consumer inflation. Let me leave aside that this is not really the best measure of performance of equities against inflation over time, it is a relatively good measure of how much consumption delayed gratification gets you. It doesn't include dividend reinvestment, but it also does not get rid of the upside bias of indexes. While arguments over which of these effects is larger, the two seem to roughly cancel each other out.

As you can see from the column of data, the S&P peaked in inflation adjusted terms at nearly 10 times the CPI. Even with the recent rally, which has caught many megabears short - the large cap market now stands down about 30% from that peak.

Thus even the factoids being thrown around, aren't even true. Let alone the larger implication, namely that because gas prices are high and the down is at a record level, that the economy is good. Even farther from true is Bush's assertion - uncritically parroted, that his policy of slashing taxes on the very wealthy is responsible for the good economy.

As for the state of the economy, the commerce bureau reported an Old Europesque 1.6% for last quarter. The performance of this expansion - if we measure it from where the data, rather than the NBER say it began - has not been noticeably better than other long expansions. If we take the Fisher indexed chain dollars - lord that is a mouthful, so let me explain it a bit, most inflation measures use a base year, however, a chain index recomputes base numbers every single time period, thus removing effects of goods and services falling out of use or coming into use, the bea provides this somewhat over zealous summary - we find that this expansion has been noticeably slower than the last two.

The people who this expansion has been very good for are those who are paid out of corporate profits. Here the Bush record needs no excuses - this has been the best run of profit increases in a very long time, and looks set to break all records for profitability. Unfortunately, almost none of that profit is sinking down into wages, and not much is showing up in the hands of Mr. and Mrs. 401k.

I've debunked the "low CPI and low Unemployment rate" meme so many times that it isn't worth repeating in detail, but the gist of it is this. First, core CPI is a myth - non-core inflation is a leading indicator of core inflation, and a leading indicator of falling GDP over the post-world war II period. Second, CPI understates housing, thus allowing the Fed to be more accomodative for longer, which lengthens economic cycles, but slows both wage growth and GDP growth over time. Third the Unemployment Rate doesn't measure a positive "jobs are easy to come by" but a negative - "there is a great deal of wage pull inflationary pressure". Meaning the economy is on the verge of overheating.

- - -

After slogging through this much debunking data, it is worth while looking at the future. The financial press is a great deal more realistic than the popular press. The Dow peaks, in the financial world, are basically a non-event. Instead, they are focused on the question of earnings going forward, growth going forward and whether the bearish bond market, or the bullish stock market, is a better reading of the economy.

The bull case scenario is fairly simple: profits have been up, up again and up again - regardless of GDP growth. The reasoning on the stock market is that contained wage pressures, the global boom - globally the world economy is growing faster than any time since the early 1970's - providing new markets, and relatively low inflation and interest rates will provide a good environment for continued strong profit growth. Since profit growth leads to dividends or stock buy backs, allowing investors to either get cash or cash out - this is a scenario that argues that the strong run up of the last two months is the start of something big and the time to get on board the train is now.

The bears are in the bond market. If you read the bond chart here you can see how short term rates are moving, and have stayed, above long term rates. In the US this has been a very accurate predictor of recession. The arguments over models as to why this is so go on, but the reason for the arguments comes from the attempt to model this as a rational market of people buying an asset, rather than as three markets, two of which are not interested in making a profit per se. The three markets are the feds moving of interest rates, the government selling bonds, and the buyers of bonds - many of which are buying collateral, not investment. This three valued market argues that as long as there are buyers for parking money, there are profits in the economy that are generating growth or inflation. If the fed wants to fight inflation, it has to continue raising rates until such time as demand for government bonds falls by enough to indicate that there is no longer profits being parked. This model explains why many governments have consistenly inverted yield curves without a recession - running a trade surplus will mean that it is entirely possible to have profits to be parked in government bonds, without being an indicator of inflationary overheating of the domestic economy.

However for us, it is another piece of evidence to argue for the bear case - which is that falling housing prices will lead, eventually, to lay offs in housing, and that consumers, without the ability to borrow, will restrain spending. That this will drive down consumer spending, even though gasoline prices are falling somewhat, far more than the Fed would like. In this view, backed by some, but not all of the futures market - there will be a further slow down of the economy, which will feel like a recession - and the Fed will lower interest rates to create growth sometime late next year.

While the "the economy is good!" argument is absurd, the bull case scenario that taxes are going to stay low, wages are going to stay low and that Americans will continue to spend themselves into the ground - is far more reasonable. It is also not a slam dunk argument. Nor, more importantly, does it add up to something voters should vote for - basically Bush is happily saying, and the top down media is happily repeating "you are such suckers!" Well, if people want to vote for that, then they will end up where they deserve.

While the bear case scenario isn't a slam dunk either, it more closely matches what people feel about this economy. An economy which is increasingly divided into two components, an international elite doing very well, and everyone else scraping by. While the bears may not be right about the economy falling of a cliff, the foreclosure rate and falling home values are fairly good indication that is going to feel like a boulder has been dropped on most people's finances.

So what does this mean for politics - how should people be voting? Well the Republican mantra is "give money to rich people, and they will make more money with it." This doesn't seem to be the case, instead, it seems that giving money to the very well off means they spend more time competing with other very well off people. This keeps GDP and productivity growing, but it doesn't make people happier. The Democratic mantra is "give more money to the public, and that will force creative people to come up with ways of getting them to spend it". This ran into a brick wall in the 1970's with energy inflation, and there hasn't really been a good replacement for why it should work now. It is why things like "The Plan" sound rather silly - because it talks about wanting to make people better off, but then advocates "make the people pay" policies which are really juggling money between different groups of workers, rather than finding a way to reallocate effort from asset inflation to the consumer economy. As Max Sawicky acidly quipped, I'm not running for office, and therefore how progressives would fix this problem isn't really on the ballot. What we are really voting for is slowing down the radical Repbulican agenda a bit, and given how poorly it has performed for people who work - and that is most of us - it is absolutely a good idea.

Solving the real underlying problems, unfortunately, isn't on the ballot this time around. However the first rule of holes is - "when you are in a hole, stop digging". Under George, the economy has started to slip into a serious gopher groove, more over, it is one which is hitting ordinary Americans a great deal harder than it is hitting the economic elites. This is why the Congress under Hastert and Frist didn't do anything - all their friends are feeling just fine.

However, they are very much afraid that a meltdown in the housing market will wipe out the house that they really care about owning - the House of Representatives. Some projections put the Democrats as winning as many as 40 net seats, and not having a single incumbent Democratic member of the house lose. This would be true to history - the House of Representatives has only changed hands on large swings of the number of seats for the last century. In essence, control of the House changes only when the voters decide that it is more important to have the right party in control of the House of Representatives, than it is to keep their incumbent member. This year is looking more and more like such a year, and that is why we are seeing more and more from right wing Desperate House Wipes.

Date CPU-U Nominal Real
1990 Aug 131.6 121.8 $0.93
1990 Sep 132.7 125.8 $0.95
1990 Oct 133.5 133.5 $1.00
1990 Nov 133.8 132.4 $0.99
1990 Dec 133.8 134.1 $1.00
1991 Jan 134.6 118 $0.88
1991 Feb 134.8 109.4 $0.81
1991 Mar 135 104 $0.77
1991 Apr 135.2 107.6 $0.80
1991 May 135.6 112.6 $0.83
1991 Jun 136 112.8 $0.83
1991 Jul 136.2 109.6 $0.80
1991 Aug 136.6 111.5 $0.82
1991 Sep 137.2 110.9 $0.81
1991 Oct 137.4 108.8 $0.79
1991 Nov 137.8 109.9 $0.80
1991 Dec 137.9 107.6 $0.78
1992 Jan 138.1 102.2 $0.74
1992 Feb 138.6 100.6 $0.73
1992 Mar 139.3 101.3 $0.73
1992 Apr 139.5 105.2 $0.75
1992 May 139.7 110.7 $0.79
1992 Jun 140.2 114.5 $0.82
1992 Jul 140.5 113.7 $0.81
1992 Aug 140.9 112.2 $0.80
1992 Sep 141.3 112.2 $0.79
1992 Oct 141.8 111.4 $0.79
1992 Nov 142 111.1 $0.78
1992 Dec 141.9 107.8 $0.76
1993 Jan 142.6 106.2 $0.74
1993 Feb 143.1 105.4 $0.74
1993 Mar 143.6 105.2 $0.73
1993 Apr 144 107.8 $0.75
1993 May 144.2 110 $0.76
1993 Jun 144.4 109.7 $0.76
1993 Jul 144.4 107.8 $0.75
1993 Aug 144.8 106.2 $0.73
1993 Sep 145.1 105 $0.72
1993 Oct 145.7 109.2 $0.75
1993 Nov 145.8 106.6 $0.73
1993 Dec 145.8 101.4 $0.70
1994 Jan 146.2 99.8 $0.68
1994 Feb 146.7 100.9 $0.69
1994 Mar 147.2 100.8 $0.68
1994 Apr 147.4 102.7 $0.70
1994 May 147.5 104.7 $0.71
1994 Jun 148 107.8 $0.73
1994 Jul 148.4 110.6 $0.75
1994 Aug 149 115.5 $0.78
1994 Sep 149.4 114.4 $0.77
1994 Oct 149.5 111.4 $0.75
1994 Nov 149.7 111.6 $0.75
1994 Dec 149.7 109.1 $0.73
1995 Jan 150.3 108.2 $0.72
1995 Feb 150.9 107.3 $0.71
1995 Mar 151.4 107.2 $0.71
1995 Apr 151.9 111.1 $0.73
1995 May 152.2 117.8 $0.77
1995 Jun 152.5 119.2 $0.78
1995 Jul 152.5 115.4 $0.76
1995 Aug 152.9 112.3 $0.73
1995 Sep 153.2 111.1 $0.73
1995 Oct 153.7 108.7 $0.71
1995 Nov 153.6 106.2 $0.69
1995 Dec 153.5 107.1 $0.70
1996 Jan 154.4 109 $0.71
1996 Feb 154.9 108.9 $0.70
1996 Mar 155.7 113.7 $0.73
1996 Apr 156.3 123.1 $0.79
1996 May 156.6 127.9 $0.82
1996 Jun 156.7 125.6 $0.80
1996 Jul 157 122.7 $0.78
1996 Aug 157.3 120.7 $0.77
1996 Sep 157.8 120.2 $0.76
1996 Oct 158.3 120.4 $0.76
1996 Nov 158.6 123.2 $0.78
1996 Dec 158.6 123.5 $0.78
1997 Jan 159.1 123.6 $0.78
1997 Feb 159.6 123 $0.77
1997 Mar 160 120.5 $0.75
1997 Apr 160.2 119.9 $0.75
1997 May 160.1 120 $0.75
1997 Jun 160.3 119.8 $0.75
1997 Jul 160.5 117.4 $0.73
1997 Aug 160.8 122.4 $0.76
1997 Sep 161.2 123.1 $0.76
1997 Oct 161.6 119.7 $0.74
1997 Nov 161.5 117.1 $0.73
1997 Dec 161.3 113.1 $0.70
1998 Jan 161.6 108.6 $0.67
1998 Feb 161.9 104.9 $0.65
1998 Mar 162.2 101.7 $0.63
1998 Apr 162.5 103 $0.63
1998 May 162.8 106.4 $0.65
1998 Jun 163 106.4 $0.65
1998 Jul 163.2 105.5 $0.65
1998 Aug 163.4 102.6 $0.63
1998 Sep 163.6 100.9 $0.62
1998 Oct 164 101.9 $0.62
1998 Nov 164 99.5 $0.61
1998 Dec 163.9 94.5 $0.58
1999 Jan 164.3 93.9 $0.57
1999 Feb 164.5 92.1 $0.56
1999 Mar 165 98.2 $0.60
1999 Apr 166.2 113.1 $0.68
1999 May 166.2 113.1 $0.68
1999 Jun 166.2 111.4 $0.67
1999 Jul 166.7 115.8 $0.69
1999 Aug 167.1 122.1 $0.73
1999 Sep 167.9 125.6 $0.75
1999 Oct 168.2 124.4 $0.74
1999 Nov 168.3 125.1 $0.74
1999 Dec 168.3 127.3 $0.76
2000 Jan 168.8 128.9 $0.76
2000 Feb 169.8 137.7 $0.81
2000 Mar 171.2 151.6 $0.89
2000 Apr 171.3 146.5 $0.86
2000 May 171.5 148.7 $0.87
2000 Jun 172.4 163.3 $0.95
2000 Jul 172.8 155.1 $0.90
2000 Aug 172.8 146.5 $0.85
2000 Sep 173.7 155 $0.89
2000 Oct 174 153.2 $0.88
2000 Nov 174.1 151.7 $0.87
2000 Dec 174 144.3 $0.83
2001 Jan 175.1 144.7 $0.83
2001 Feb 175.8 145 $0.82
2001 Mar 176.2 140.9 $0.80
2001 Apr 176.9 155.2 $0.88
2001 May 177.7 170.2 $0.96
2001 Jun 178 161.6 $0.91
2001 Jul 177.5 142.1 $0.80
2001 Aug 177.5 142.1 $0.80
2001 Sep 178.3 152.2 $0.85
2001 Oct 177.7 131.5 $0.74
2001 Nov 177.4 117.1 $0.66
2001 Dec 176.7 108.6 $0.61
2002 Jan 177.1 110.7 $0.63
2002 Feb 177.8 111.4 $0.63
2002 Mar 178.8 124.9 $0.70
2002 Apr 179.8 139.7 $0.78
2002 May 179.8 139.2 $0.77
2002 Jun 179.9 138.2 $0.77
2002 Jul 180.1 139.7 $0.78
2002 Aug 180.7 139.6 $0.77
2002 Sep 181 140 $0.77
2002 Oct 181.3 144.5 $0.80
2002 Nov 181.3 141.9 $0.78
2002 Dec 180.9 138.6 $0.77
2003 Jan 181.7 145.8 $0.80
2003 Feb 183.1 161.3 $0.88
2003 Mar 184.2 169.3 $0.92
2003 Apr 183.8 158.9 $0.86
2003 May 183.5 149.7 $0.82
2003 Jun 183.7 149.3 $0.81
2003 Jul 183.9 151.3 $0.82
2003 Aug 184.6 162 $0.88
2003 Sep 185.2 167.9 $0.91
2003 Oct 185 156.4 $0.85
2003 Nov 184.5 151.2 $0.82
2003 Dec 184.3 147.9 $0.80
2004 Jan 185.2 157.2 $0.85
2004 Jan 185.9 164.8 $0.89
2004 Feb 186.5 173.6 $0.93
2004 Mar 187.3 179.8 $0.96
2004 Apr 187.5 198.3 $1.06
2004 May 188.6 196.9 $1.04
2004 Jun 189.2 191.1 $1.01
2004 Jul 189.2 187.8 $0.99
2004 Aug 189.4 187 $0.99
2004 Sep 189.7 200 $1.05
2004 Oct 190.8 197.9 $1.04
2004 Nov 191.2 184.1 $0.96
2004 Dec 191.2 183.1 $0.96
2005 Jan 191.4 191 $1.00
2005 Feb 192.1 207.9 $1.08
2005 Mar 193.2 224.3 $1.16
2005 Apr 194.1 216.1 $1.11
2005 May 194 215.6 $1.11
2005 Jun 193.9 229 $1.18
2005 Jul 195.1 248.6 $1.27
2005 Aug 196.2 290.3 $1.48
2005 Sep 198.6 271.7 $1.37
2005 Oct 199.1 225.7 $1.13
2005 Nov 197.8 218.5 $1.10
2005 Dec 197.7 231.6 $1.17
2006 Jan 199 228 $1.15
2006 Feb 199.1 242.5 $1.22
2006 Mar 199.8 274.2 $1.37
2006 Apr 201 290.7 $1.45
2006 May 201.9 288.5 $1.43
2006 Jun 202.3 298.1 $1.47
2006 Jul 203.2 295.2 $1.45
2006 Aug 203.7 255.5 $1.25
2006 Sep 202.7 255.5 $1.26
2006 Oct 202.3 226.1 $1.12

Data sources - Data through September 2006 for inflation is the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI-U seasonally adjusted. Though non-seasonally adjusted CPI-W is a better measure of how people feel about the economy, the differences are slight. The retail price data is in pennies from the monthly summary of the Energy Information Agency. Octoboer CPI-U data is my own estimate (predicting a .1% drop in inflation for October) and the gas price is the current EIA retail price in pennies. The final column is a straight long division of the two, which yields the price of gasoline in 1982-1983 dollars.

As you can see, gas prices are still double, in real wage terms, than they were at the trough of the "Great Commodities Depression".

1990 Jan 353.4 2.802537669
1990 Feb 329.08 2.583045526
1990 Mar 331.89 2.592890625
1990 Apr 339.94 2.641336441
1990 May 330.8 2.566330489
1990 Jun 361.23 2.795897833
1990 Jul 358.02 2.756120092
1990 Aug 356.15 2.731211656
1990 Sep 322.56 2.45106383
1990 Oct 306.05 2.306330068
1990 Nov 304 2.277153558
1990 Dec 322.22 2.408221226
1991 Jan 330.22 2.468011958
1991 Feb 343.93 2.555200594
1991 Mar 367.07 2.723071217
1991 Apr 375.22 2.779407407
1991 May 375.34 2.776183432
1991 Jun 389.83 2.874852507
1991 Jul 371.16 2.729117647
1991 Aug 387.81 2.847356828
1991 Sep 395.43 2.894802343
1991 Oct 387.86 2.82696793
1991 Nov 392.45 2.856259098
1991 Dec 375.22 2.722931785
1992 Jan 417.09 3.024583031
1992 Feb 408.78 2.960028965
1992 Mar 412.7 2.977633478
1992 Apr 403.69 2.89798995
1992 May 414.95 2.974551971
1992 Jun 415.35 2.973156764
1992 Jul 408.14 2.911126961
1992 Aug 424.21 3.019288256
1992 Sep 414.03 2.938466998
1992 Oct 417.8 2.956829441
1992 Nov 418.68 2.952609309
1992 Dec 431.35 3.037676056
1993 Jan 435.71 3.070542636
1993 Feb 438.78 3.076998597
1993 Mar 443.38 3.098392732
1993 Apr 451.67 3.145334262
1993 May 440.19 3.056875
1993 Jun 450.19 3.121983356
1993 Jul 450.53 3.12001385
1993 Aug 448.13 3.103393352
1993 Sep 463.56 3.201381215
1993 Oct 458.93 3.162853205
1993 Nov 467.83 3.210912835
1993 Dec 461.79 3.167283951
1994 Jan 466.45 3.199245542
1994 Feb 481.61 3.294186047
1994 Mar 467.14 3.184321745
1994 Apr 445.77 3.028328804
1994 May 450.91 3.059090909
1994 Jun 456.5 3.094915254
1994 Jul 444.27 3.001824324
1994 Aug 458.26 3.088005391
1994 Sep 475.49 3.191208054
1994 Oct 462.71 3.097121821
1994 Nov 472.35 3.159531773
1994 Dec 453.69 3.030661323
1995 Jan 459.27 3.067935872
1995 Feb 470.42 3.129873586
1995 Mar 487.39 3.229887343
1995 Apr 500.71 3.307199472
1995 May 514.71 3.388479263
1995 Jun 533.4 3.504599212
1995 Jul 544.75 3.572131148
1995 Aug 562.06 3.685639344
1995 Sep 561.88 3.674820144
1995 Oct 584.41 3.814686684
1995 Nov 581.5 3.783344177
1995 Dec 605.37 3.941210938
1996 Jan 615.93 4.01257329
1996 Feb 636.02 4.119300518
1996 Mar 640.43 4.134473854
1996 Apr 645.5 4.145793192
1996 May 654.17 4.185348688
1996 Jun 669.12 4.272796935
1996 Jul 670.63 4.279706445
1996 Aug 639.95 4.07611465
1996 Sep 651.99 4.14488239
1996 Oct 687.33 4.355703422
1996 Nov 705.27 4.455274795
1996 Dec 757.02 4.773139975
1997 Jan 740.74 4.670491803
1997 Feb 786.16 4.941294783
1997 Mar 790.82 4.955012531
1997 Apr 757.12 4.732
1997 May 801.34 5.002122347
1997 Jun 848.28 5.298438476
1997 Jul 885.14 5.521771678
1997 Aug 954.31 5.945856698
1997 Sep 899.47 5.593718905
1997 Oct 947.28 5.876426799
1997 Nov 914.62 5.659777228
1997 Dec 955.4 5.915789474
1998 Jan 970.43 6.016305022
1998 Feb 980.28 6.066089109
1998 Mar 1049.34 6.481408277
1998 Apr 1101.75 6.792540074
1998 May 1111.75 6.841538462
1998 Jun 1090.82 6.70036855
1998 Jul 1133.84 6.95607362
1998 Aug 1120.67 6.86685049
1998 Sep 957.28 5.858506732
1998 Oct 1017.01 6.216442543
1998 Nov 1098.67 6.699207317
1998 Dec 1163.63 7.095304878
1999 Jan 1229.23 7.499877974
1999 Feb 1279.64 7.788435788
1999 Mar 1238.33 7.527841945
1999 Apr 1286.37 7.796181818
1999 May 1335.18 8.033574007
1999 Jun 1301.84 7.832972323
1999 Jul 1372.71 8.259386282
1999 Aug 1328.72 7.970725855
1999 Sep 1320.41 7.901915021
1999 Oct 1282.71 7.639726027
1999 Nov 1362.93 8.103032105
1999 Dec 1388.91 8.25258467
2000 Jan 1469.25 8.729946524
2000 Feb 1394.46 8.261018957
2000 Mar 1366.42 8.047232038
2000 Apr 1498.58 8.75338785
2000 May 1452.43 8.478867484
2000 Jun 1420.6 8.283381924
2000 Jul 1454.6 8.437354988
2000 Aug 1430.83 8.280266204
2000 Sep 1517.68 8.78287037
2000 Oct 1436.51 8.270063328
2000 Nov 1429.4 8.214942529
2000 Dec 1314.95 7.552843194
2001 Jan 1320.28 7.587816092
2001 Feb 1366.01 7.801313535
2001 Mar 1239.94 7.053128555
2001 Apr 1160.33 6.585300795
2001 May 1249.46 7.06308649
2001 Jun 1255.82 7.067079347
2001 Jul 1224.38 6.878539326
2001 Aug 1211.23 6.823830986
2001 Sep 1133.58 6.386366197
2001 Oct 1040.94 5.83813797
2001 Nov 1059.78 5.963871694
2001 Dec 1139.45 6.423055242
2002 Jan 1148.08 6.497340125
2002 Feb 1130.2 6.381705251
2002 Mar 1106.73 6.224578178
2002 Apr 1147.39 6.417170022
2002 May 1076.92 5.989543938
2002 Jun 1067.14 5.935150167
2002 Jul 989.82 5.502056698
2002 Aug 911.62 5.061743476
2002 Sep 916.07 5.069562811
2002 Oct 815.28 4.504309392
2002 Nov 885.76 4.885603971
2002 Dec 936.31 5.164423607
2003 Jan 879.82 4.863571034
2003 Feb 855.7 4.709411117
2003 Mar 841.15 4.593937739
2003 Apr 848.18 4.604668838
2003 May 916.92 4.988683351
2003 Jun 963.59 5.251171662
2003 Jul 974.5 5.304844856
2003 Aug 990.31 5.385046221
2003 Sep 1008.01 5.460509209
2003 Oct 995.97 5.377807775
2003 Nov 1050.71 5.679513514
2003 Dec 1058.2 5.735501355
2004 Jan 1111.92 6.033206728
2004 Jan 1131.13 6.107613391
2004 Feb 1144.94 6.158902636
2004 Mar 1126.21 6.038659517
2004 Apr 1107.3 5.911906033
2004 May 1120.68 5.97696
2004 Jun 1140.84 6.048992577
2004 Jul 1101.72 5.823044397
2004 Aug 1104.24 5.836363636
2004 Sep 1114.58 5.884794087
2004 Oct 1130.2 5.95782815
2004 Nov 1173.82 6.152096436
2004 Dec 1211.92 6.338493724
2005 Jan 1181.27 6.178190377
2005 Feb 1203.6 6.288401254
2005 Mar 1180.59 6.145705362
2005 Apr 1156.85 5.987836439
2005 May 1191.5 6.138588357
2005 Jun 1191.33 6.140876289
2005 Jul 1234.18 6.365033522
2005 Aug 1220.33 6.254894926
2005 Sep 1228.81 6.26304791
2005 Oct 1207.01 6.077593152
2005 Nov 1249.48 6.275640382
2005 Dec 1248.29 6.310869565
2006 Jan 1280.08 6.4748609
2006 Feb 1280.66 6.435477387
2006 Mar 1294.87 6.503616273
2006 Apr 1310.61 6.55960961
2006 May 1270.09 6.318855721
2006 Jun 1270.2 6.291233284
2006 Jul 1276.66 6.310726644
2006 Aug 1303.82 6.416437008
2006 Sep 1335.85 6.557928326
2006 Oct 1389.08 6.852886038

CPI data from BLS, except for 2006 October which is my estimated value. Monthly S&P data from Standard and Poors.