We're a long way from the insular certainty of newspapers that called for Dewey. Now, when the vote clashes with polling it should call the tally into question.

I would not worry about confidence reducing vote totals; it seems to work the other way, with voters piling on top with the winner. An expected landslide is more likely to keep the (expected) losing side at home. The vote tally is often more a reflection of current politics than the determining factor.

The Dewey myth is good cover for manipulated vote counts.

I hope that a few things happen in the next two weeks:

1) I'd like to see some national democrat ad buys. They could be simple spots that show a count of republican reps/assistants/etc. that have resigned, are in prison, are indicted, or under investigation.

2) I'd love the dems to come up with at least a few unifying themes. Would there be an impeachment or not? Exactly how are we going to get out of Iraq? Is the Foleygate investigation sufficient or not? Right now, it seems like everybody has vague/different ideas - hard to push a midterm election as a national referendum when the dems seem (as usual) not to have a real consistent platform.

3) The repubs are very successful in thwarting votes. Dems need to push a get out the vote message, and hard. Part of what made the Michael Fox ad so powerful was the idea that this is a national referendum - the dems should push that.

4) Dem candidates and their handlers can't roll over as easily as Webb's people apparently have. If there's any malarkey a la James H "Jim", we need to be in court ASAP. The DNC needs to have badass lawyers representin' NOW, not after the fact.

Yep.

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Romani Ite Domum

It's the last two weeks. You fire up the volunteers, you fire up the base by telling them "We are going to win this one!!" and not by going around telling people "Wouldn't be prudent".

Frankly this advice echoes that of those who told us you can't directly oppose a "Popular war-time President" and that "Nobody votes for an angry man",

If you were not angry in 2004 you just were not paying attention. Well we are still mad as hell and for a change we are giving it to the GOP with both barrels and part of that means acting with confidence.

From a cold blooded political analysis point of view I would be interested in seeing any data about a campaign whose over-enthusiasm led to a suppression of turnout or induced voters to decide that they didn't need to send a message because everyone else was already doing it. But otherwise I don't see that defeatism is really the path to victory here.

Incumbants may get complacent, I don't see that challengers do. Sheesh, Rove predicts victory and all the weak sisters immediately conclude he must have something in the bag. Democrats predict victory based on some pretty overwhelming poll numbers and people tell us not to rock the boat.

Faint heart never gained fair maiden.

Pelosi's comments about no impeachment almost made me throw up. At the same time, there are radio spots on Air America saying that this election is a national mandate, and that there needs to be an impeachment and prosecutions. That's inconsistent. And Pelosi's comments will probably keep a lot of hardcore lefties at home.

I didn't hear the whole context, but I did hear Casey talking about increasing the number of special forces in Iraq (and Santorum promptly ridiculed the impracticality of the idea). He talked about benchmarks rather than a timetable. Again, inconsistent.

Foleygate: You're probably right. That's my own axe to grind - I'm just deeply, deeply troubled by a political party that values politics above prosecuting pederasty.

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Romani Ite Domum

Far more people are demoralized by the prospect of failure than success. If we let people believe that their vote will be wasted - AGAIN - by electoral map engineering and miscounted votes, then they are far more likely to stay home than if they believe that there's actually a real chance to change things.

On election night 2000, the Republicans discovered that perception can create reality. The vote had been called for Gore when - with Florida polls still open - FOX News raised the viral meme that Bush might have really won. From that moment on, things gradually started to go the other way. Now this year they're claiming that although Dems might take the house, there's just no way that they could take the Senate. Don't fall for it - the Senate is on the razor's edge of going either way. Republicans are just trying to demoralize the electorate in advance so they can turn their preferred perception into reality once again. It does not behoove us to unwittingly help them.

Yeah, I'm with you on this one. It's never too early to be hopeful and giddy at the prospect of a Democratic Sweep but, is really time to discuss committee assignments (from a CO Political Blog):

CO-4 candidate Angie Paccione was the subject of some glowing words tonight from Democratic House Whip, Congressman Steny Hoyer.

In a meet up attended by CO-6 candidate Bill Winter, Colorado Democratic Party Chair Pat Waak and others, Rep. Hoyer spoke about the importance of not only removing the blight of Musgrave from office but of replacing her with a public servant like Paccione.

One of the questions asked of the pair was which committee assignments the future Rep. Paccione might seek. Angie was certainly interested in Education as it has been a central focus of her career, but she said she was also interested in Agriculture because of the importance of that committee to her district and because of the neglect the farming and ranching communities have had to suffer under Musgrave.

And the futor over Pelosi's "pledge" to not seek impeachment when she becomes Speaker is similarily misplaced.

But, where I work, if I want to hear a viewpoint that runs counter to the Bush Party Line, I've got to be the voice of that viewpoint.

And, yeah, it's hard not to gloat!

I agree with Rosenberg: Don't celebrate yet. Being a faithful Democrat in recent years is a lot like living in Raleigh, NC in the the winter-time (I do, so I know what I'm talking about in this example).

If there is even a remote possibility of snow, the local meteorologists tell us it is going to snow. People get excited; stores sell out of bread and milk; kids stay up late & don't do their homework, because they think school will be canceled the next day; pagans make libations to Uller. Then the citizenry all go to sleep and dream of winter wonderlands, snow angels, and excuses to get out of shoveling the driveway. But the next morning when we wake up & look outside, there's no snow. Sometimes, there isn't even any precipitation at all.

In terms of this election, I'm hoping for a BLUE blizzard, but I'm definitely not going to bed without doing my homework...

OK, but you are going to win without my vote, at least for Senate. You've been saying timetable for a year? And so what? And so when? And so why should I believe you? So now Bush is for a timetable. So what's the difference?

The Independent gets my vote. He's for getting out of Iraq NOW not for in which ever decade it is politically convenient for two parties who both seem to think war is about parsing sentences around words like "timetable".

Yes, I know, the Independent won't win, but the Democrats won't get out of Iraq, so again, what is the difference?

So, the question is, politically, was running on impeachment the smart thing to do?

You know that every political ad for the last two months would have been about and only about impeachment. What Pelosi did was neutralize that entire line of attack from the GOPs.

(I'm not judging whether that was right or wrong, just calling it...)

Now, I don't think whatever Pelosi says precludes her, or, really, someone else, from moving for impeachment. If hearings are held, and it's pretty clear (I know, it really already is...), is that a "flip flop" for her to allow it to proceed? I don't know.

I really don't think Pelosi's statement is keeping even hardcore lefties home. No matter what, the most important thing right now is getting the GOPs out of Congress. Anyone with any sense of politics knows that. 

I think the idea of a lefty so pissed off at impeachment staying home is going to be such a rarity, it's a bit of a strawman. I could be wrong...

Casey is an outlier. We'll never get all the Dems, but 80% (I don't know what the exact number is), maybe even more, are for a timetable. I have to go back and look at the vote on the Levin amendment, but it was pretty much everyone. Casey, no doubt, will be like a Ben Nelson or Mary Landrieu -- they all can't be liberals. 

Dissent Protects Democracy.

As Yogi Berra said, "It ain't over 'til it's over."

Tom

As a faithful democrat who lives and breathes for the party and faithfully follows our glorious leaders with faith, I agree with our wonderful and glorious pundits and media talking heads. We have to reframe the debate to energize the base by reprioritizing our action items list with goodfaith win-win initiatives.

A return to the Clintonian ideal of the 90s is an absolute necessity. We must emphasize what we stand for: Clean Coal, DOMA, NAFTA, the Murtha Airwar Plan, Don't Ask - Don't Tell, Media Consolidation, Mountaintop Strip Mining and above all giving the appearance of caring while guiding the ignorant masses on the right path for our corporate donors.

Maximum Leader Rahm's strategery is working. Running prowar prolife candidates will assure us control of the house. Any criticism of our leadership is treasonous. Shut up and keep repeating our sound bites! Let our media attack poodles do their work and we'll win win win! CELEBRATE OUR GLORIOUS VICTORY NOW!!!

Darn tootin'!

thanks, I wondered who was responsible for that one ;-)

The way I see it is Americans like a winner.  I think the dems need to continue to walk and talk like winners, because image is everything...all the while working their tails off because nothing is won yet.

Exactly! Excellent post! We must all work to keep 3rd party and independent candidates off the ballot. All they do is steal our votes! Ralph Nader is directily responsible for the Iraq War! How could anybody vote for that dirty Arab when they have our pure and clean party to represent them?

Plus, Nader's practically the sole cause of global warming. It's true! I read it on DailyKos! And he plans to impeach our President! How could he?! I sure hope Pelosi and Rahm can stop this madman in time and save us all!!!

Exactly! I agree with you completely! Ralph Nader is the evil world-destroying scum that started the Iraq War and made our wonderful Al Gore lose the election! Those were OUR 90,000 votes! How DARE he steal our votes!

And what about the 2000+ Buchanan votes in Dade County! Those were OUR votes! And what about Tennessee? Do you think Gore losing his home state was an accident? NO! It's was Ralph Nader's fault!

I too don't believe in keeping 3rd parties of the ballot. We must support our leaders lawsuits and pass more responsible laws to keep these parties from the ballot and not of the ballot! Voting democrat is the only thing to do! People should realize what a Lebanese scumbag Ralph Nader is and that voting for anyone but the two party candidates is ridiculous and futile and just just wrong!

You're exactly right, flavius! We're the good!!! Vote for us because we can win win win! Remember our motto: JUST SHUT UP AND VOTE!!!

Is it just me or has anyone else noticed how the Iraq policy has changed just in the last two weeks as GOP races are running so tightly?  The 'stay the course' msg is a killer, so now it has changed?

How coincidental is it that we have a ruling on gay unions, right before the election, in the state of NJ....just as we had the MA ruling prior to the last election??. This is a pattern, too perfectly timed to be mere.coincidence to me. And it was a 4-3 ruling.

Bush who has not stomped for any GOP candidate is in NJ today talking about preserving the institution of marriage in that tight race and the GOP candidates are talking about introducing an amendent, and Mc Greevy will be on Larry King tonight.

These changes in the last two weeks, show desperation and will the public buy it?.  How many states will the GOP be able to get out their voters using this recent NJ ruling?

Looks like we have our October surprise.....Foley and the NJ state ruling.

Which will carry more weight with the voters which will galvanize the 'christian right' voter more....sexual predators or gay unions?

Ralph Nader has done well in saving American lives. Next time you or one of your loved ones has a massive inpact car crash, be grateful that the door didn't fly open and you or you're loved one wasn't ejected to a violent death through that open door.

Keyword Search:Nader Bolt.

Many of us may not agree with Nader's politics or the results from Nader's politics, but please show some respect for someone who has fought to keep us safe and alive.

Getting tired of this stuff, AS.

I suspect the hope is to show up on Google searches as evidence of loony liberals. I note that Mr. "Smithee" never capitalizes the word "democrat". Smells fishy.

I think he may be a voice from the left, expressing frustration that we may be moving toward a 1-party state from 2 perspectives: (1) consolidation of Republican control through gerrymandering, voting fraud, control of media, staffing agencies with political hacks, and preferential contract awards to companies that kick back contributions to Republicans, but also (2) through co-option of Democratic alternatives, so that from a corporate-control standpoint, it won't matter which party is in power. If lobbyists continue to write the legislation and staff the agencies, we've lost the battle to control the course of the country. But I think the dialogue about whether substantive change can emerge from the Democratic Party is one that would be better engaged in head-on than through parody.

You make an important point. This phenomenon of premature celebration has taken place on more than a number of occasions here in Israel, where left-of-center voters predicted an outright victory ('81, '84, '96) only to be disappointed the next morning when the other guys won. It leads to complacency.