The hot topic at the United Nations today is whether or not the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela will win a two-year term on the Security Councl.

Scott here at BoltonWatch and I over at Raw Story have both said that the outcome of this vote will in many ways be a vote on Bolton. Will the US have a vociferous counterweight added to the Security Council by the Organization's membership? Or, is Chavez's declarations that George W. Bush is the devil a bridge too far for the membership to cross?

Which way will it go? Perhaps we'll know by the end of the day. Right now, in the first round of voting, Guatemala has a commanding lead, with 109-76 votes. But that means only 7 states, such as Chile and Italy, are abstaining. Even if Guatemala were to pick up all 7 votes, it would still need to cajole eight more countries to switch sides.

The most likely outcome at this stage seems to be the emergence of a 3rd Latin American country. This would suggest that the membership does not find Bolton completely intolerable, but that there is a consensus that it does not want a country perceived to be his ventriloquist dummy sitting on the Council.

Update: Reuters says it is now 114-74 for for Guatemala, with four still sitting out the vote. Guatemala needs 124 to be elected.

Second update:  The transomme says 116 to 70 for Guatemala in the 3rd round, with 5 now abstaining.  I was incorrect about 192 casting ballots earlier - Montenegro must not yet have voting privileges. 

Third update:  Round 4, 110-75 for Guatemala, with six abstaining.  In the next round, there will be unrestricted balloting, and that means any Latin American or Caribbean nation can stand. I can't help but wonder if Venezuela's boosters are dug in, and how that will affect the next round.

Stay tuned...