Of Civil Wars
Although the Administration denies that Iraq is in a civil war, we can be confident that everyone in our government agrees that the United States was embroiled in a civil war from 1861 to 1865. Historians are not of one mind on the butcher's bill, but most would find reasonable a total of Union dead, 360,000; Confederate dead, 260,000. Given the American population of 31 million in 1860, that was about 2% of the population killed by battle or illness contracted during military service. By comparison, the Lancet study sets the number dead due to the current complicated conflicts in Iraq at a little more than 2% of the Iraq population. And, of course, the killing in Iraq continues.













Of course, a significant difference is that one third of Iraqi deaths have been caused by our soldiers.
Historians will have a field day looking back at Americans' reactions to this revelation.
In their demented ways, the wingnuts might come off better. They're in screaming denial mode: "Not credible." "Absurd." "Utter garbage" !
Their hysteria connotes a genuine fear that the numbers might be right.
But how cool, almost indifferent, the Dems have remained is unsettling.
I think I understand: 650K dead is pretty bad, but there's an election and there are more important things to talk about: Hey, George Allen may even have gotten a parking ticket when he was 22!
Dems scream bloody murder when a GOP congressman has unsupervised cybersex, but says nothing about murdering 200K. Have we lost our moral compass to *that* extent?
Ikenberry and Slaughter seek the moral high ground with their treatise on Liberty under Law,
but if slaughtering 200K people (no pun intended) is not factored into their discussion, what moral value does it have?
When the main proponent of liberal internationalism (ie, the US) commits mass murder, how do we deal with it? Do we move on? Do we offer reparations? Do we apologize? Do we ask the UN to impose sanctions on us?
Do we do what we would expect any other nation to do under the circumstances?
No need to invoke Kant to point out the obligation any foreign policy has to address the moral implication of committing mass murder.
I know it's election time. But as a previous commenter said: if I found out that my brother killed 100 people I would drop whatever I am doing and deal with it.
TPM Cafe's motto is: "Politics, ideas & lots of caffeine." It's not: "Any goddamn topic, regardless how trivial it is, that will get us Dems back in power."
Or maybe it is and I misunderstood.
Sorry for the rant.
October 14, 2006 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
King Lear raving into the storm accomplished little but his own demise.
Find me a Democrat seeking election anywhere that doesn't support the war. I know of not a single one that suggests we stop digging the hole we are in immediately. The most any want is a new shovel.
Best, Terry
October 14, 2006 8:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
The basic methodology used to obtain that 600,000 or so number of deaths in Iraq is to find the difference in the death rate before the war and during the war. Therefore, if there had not been a war none of those 600,000 or so would have died. So, it isn't 200,000 that "we" killed, it is 600,000.
Wars kill people. We started a war with no rational justification. We killed 600,000 or so Iraqis with no rational justification. What more can be said about that? I'm sorry?
Hoppy in Sacramento
October 14, 2006 9:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
"Find me a Democrat seeking election anywhere that doesn't support the war. I know of not a single one that suggests we stop digging the hole we are in immediately. The most any want is a new shovel."
That is too easy. Bill Durston is running for Congress in California's 3rd District. He is adamantly opposed to continuing the war. Charlie Brown is running for Congress in California's 4th District. He, too, is adamantly opposed to continuing the war. Both men are veterans, so they understand what war is about. I think you will find that almost all of the new Democratic candidates for Congress are opposed to continuing the war.
Hoppy in Sacramento
October 14, 2006 9:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most everybody is except...
Looks like you will need to keep looking, Hoppy in Sacramento.
Here is what Mr. Durston himself says on his website:
"Peace with honor" ring a bell for you? Know how many lives that defeat with disgrace cost?
Bill Durston's statement is refreshing, exciting and promising. It is far more direct than most anyone else. Which means I bet he is going to lose. Just guessing. I have no knowledge whatever of his race otherwise.
Parsing the statement shows the usual qualification that means war will continue for at least sometime even if a whole herd of Bill Durston's fill the House.
I was a soldier in Vietnam when the Viet Cong first began shooting at Americans. I was on a bus they blew up. I watched for years as the damnable war proceeded and was able to do nothing. And now I hear that JFK was against the war. I got worse injuries from a crazed JFK fan than from the Viet Cong bomb. I had just explained the nomination of JFK meant we were in for a costly war we would certainly lose.
Just as we made a South Vietnam ripe for plucking by the North as a monolithic society by destroying disparate elements, we are making certain a theocratic monstrosity will be created in Iraq.
Where is the honor, Hoppy in Sacramento?
Certainly wish Bill Durston good luck. Beats most anyone else.
Best, Terry
October 15, 2006 12:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
By the way, looking at Bill Durston's website he appears to be a really wonderful candidate.
What the hell. I will make a tiny contribution to the race.
Best, Terry
October 15, 2006 12:48 AM | Reply | Permalink
It wasn't started to defend America against an invasion, nor against any other kind of attack against your territory - and most certainly not to fend of an attack that could have caused a proportional number of civilian deaths in your country.
The aggression was un-proportional, just like, for instance, the recent destruction and killing in Lebanon.
Maybe that you have started to think about how to improve your nation so that similar things don't continue to occur again and again?October 15, 2006 5:28 AM | Reply | Permalink
Who is "you"? It sure ain't me.
More than half of the country voted against Bush in 2000. Now that most Americans have been clued in on a reasonable portion of the facts, more than half oppose continuing the Iraq debacle.
Count on real action to undo the GOP damage to our reputation and Constitution.
October 15, 2006 6:25 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's still your country.
You still have Freedom of the Press and Liberty of Speech.
You still have democracy.
You still have a responsibility for the decisions your country has not yet taken, as well as for your opposition against, or support for, those decisions effectuated.
When will you fix your Constitution to ensure this doesn't occur again?
October 15, 2006 6:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
I would like to continue to debate you on this, but unfortunately you are right. We, as a nation, are totally responsible for unlawfully and irrationally killing 600,000 or so Iraqis. We have every reason to stand in shame before the world.
While we still do have freedom of speech, we no longer have a free press. Our news media is almost entirely under the control of corporations, whose only interest is in making more money. They can do that best by pandering to the worst elements in our country, so that's what they do. Fake patriotism sells and sells big time. But, factual reporting about the President and Congress does not sell.
Fixing our Constitution is extremely difficult. The very things that make our country only a limited democracy are the things that prevent changing to a real democracy.
Please, never forget that about half of us have been opposed totally to the Iraq invasion, opposed to Bush, opposed to our do nothing Congress. We are doing what we can to vote them out of power. Wish us luck.
Hoppy in Sacramento
October 15, 2006 9:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you for any contribution you make to Bill Durston's campaign. I am not in his district, but I still donate as much as I can to his campaign, work the phone bank every Tuesday night, attend any events he needs more warm bodies at, and talk up his candidacy every chance I get.
His website is written to not arouse intense opposition to him, as every astute politician has learned is wise. In person, and in speeches he makes his outright opposition to the Iraq war very clear. However, no one will, if elected, insist upon instant withdrawal of American troops from Iraq. No retreat can be successful unless it is an orderly one, and that does take time. Remember, there are also thousands of American civilians working in Iraq (to remove as much of that countries wealth as is possible?), and they too have to be removed safely.
Hoppy in Sacramento
October 15, 2006 9:36 AM | Reply | Permalink
I find no problem with the Constitution, but with the current crowd that gamed the system. I can't imagine any system that could not be gamed, for at least the short run.
Rest assured that when the sensible majority gets a legitimate vote result we will move to undo what damage we can.
BTW, what is your country?
October 15, 2006 9:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
Of course I wish you luck!
But I do more than so.
I wish you strength to seek and address the underlying problems that causes your nation to drift dangerously close to a maelstrom into the depth of fascism.
October 15, 2006 10:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
Denmark.
And we are responsible too.
(You may have heard about our nation as them who hoped that support in Bush's war would pay of in trade gains, what's what our nation always has lived of.)
With regard to your Constitution, I think it would do a lot good for America, and a lot to convince other nations that you really take the problem seriously - something that unfortunatly wasn't the lasting impression after the McCarthy era.
October 15, 2006 10:26 AM | Reply | Permalink
I'm thinking of the meal I ate in Tivoli; reindeer in a berry sauce. Wish we had reindeer. (Cattle ranchers resist.)
October 15, 2006 1:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
I had reindeer in Oslo, and, after seeing all the international "reindeer crossing" warnings, I don't feel guilty about Rudolph.
Unfortunately, I wound up in an Italian restaurant across the street from Tivoli, my Danish friend saying everything in there was too touristy. *sigh*
What was very much not touristy was one of my requests, a visit to the Museum of the Resistance. This is not to say there wasn't much honor in the WWII Resistance of other European countries, but the Danish saving of their Jewish population gives great moral standing.
I don't know all the details, but a friend in Copenhagen told me a story that was rather appealing. Apparently, Blockbuster opened a store, but followed its corporate policy of not selling/renting pornographic videos. Apparently, there was a boycott, not particularly supporting pornography, but a protest at anyone telling Danes what they should and should not see.
It's a small country with much to be proud about.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
October 15, 2006 2:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
There are some problems with our constitution, primarily the parts that allow a minority of the voters to select the president and most of the Senate. There may have been a justification for the Electoral College back in the 18th century, but there is no justification today. There may have been a good reason for the Senate to be an equal house of Congress, even though not democratically elected, but there isn't today. (No state with fewer voters than live in an average city in California should be able to have the same number of representatives to the Senate as California has.) Those problems are a major reason the yahoos select our president and run the Senate.
Hoppy in Sacramento
October 15, 2006 2:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
It's even worse for me. In 2002 Minnesota had two liberal Senators who voted against the war. Now, we've got a Republican and we're going to have a DLC "centrist". I have a hard time believing things are going to be better if the Dems take Congress. They're going to be so intimidated by the prospect of being charged with "losing Irag" that they'll just let another half million die for fear of losing the next election.
October 15, 2006 3:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
What is worse is the brain drain. Notwithstanding the loss of life and property during the American Civil War, the U.S. population and industrial capacity increased during the war. In contrast, because of the Iraqi security situation, there is every inducement for the Iraqi professional class to leave, and many of them are doing so. When you lose your doctors and engineers, the suffering will continue long after the fighting is over.
October 15, 2006 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
It is noteworthy that the vast majority of ACW casualties were due to diseases and unhealthy lifestyle not the power of metal, eg the Union suffered 110,000 battle deaths and 250,000 deaths due to disease (Burke Davis - The Civil War; Strange and fascinating facts, 215).
All these casualties were soldiers. Something which is true only for a limited number of Iraqi deaths reported.
October 15, 2006 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
[Well, the Finns use to remind that they too have reason to be proud of their safeguaring their small Jewish population, and their low number of civilian deaths 1939-45, 2,000 similar to the Danish figure, despite their long harsh wars - but their combat losses were some disastrous 2.6% of the population.]
Resistance is not a national characteristic. Consecutive defeats through the centuries, from the Thirthy Years War and on, have learned the Danes better.
Other nations have reason to be proud of their resistance, but had to pay a price in lifes. The Danish Resistance Museum is there just to remind us that there actually were some exceptional freedom fighters - even in Denmark.
October 15, 2006 5:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
There is one story about the Danish resistance that pops up occasionally in communications engineering. If it isn't true, it should be. :-)
Undergrounds often are literally that, using sewer tunnels and the like. Supposedly, the main radio transmitter for the Resistance had its feeder cable run through the sewers, and then, by some workers calmly painting a building, ran the antenna alongside a roof drain of the German security (Gestapo/SD) headquarters.
They'd keep sending out the direction finding vans, which would come back to their own garage, where their commander would call them a bunch of incompetents.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
October 15, 2006 6:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Finns were incredible in fighting the Soviets. Perhaps it might have been somewhat different had Stalin not purged most of his senior officers, but not enough historians seem aware of the brilliance of the Finnish commander, Marshal Mannerheim.
Soviet troops, who thought they understood winter, called the Finnish ski troops ghosts -- appearing out of nowhere, attacking, and disappearing. It was only by applying overwhelming numbers did the Soviets prevail.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
October 15, 2006 6:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't speak for any other Americans, but one thing that I have learned is that I must speak out more.
When our military went after Al Quaida in Afghanistan, I thought this was a good thing. I still think it was the right thing to do but the effort was abandoned. When Bush started talking about invading Iraq, it didn't make sense to me. Even at the time, the campaign in Afghanistan was not going well and it occurred to me that Iraq could be no better.
However, I failed to speak out about this, and I now see that I was behaving like a coward. I am resolved not to make this mistake again. This will be my little contribution to improving my nation.
-Dave Adams-
October 15, 2006 11:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
By now you know Olaf's from one member of the Coalition Of The Willing - Denmark. I'm from another - Australia.
Bush was an obvious phoney right off to just about anyone who wasn't American (as well as to most of the 20-odd% of Americans who twice voted against him). But look at the fertile ground distinctive to the US national makeup from which Bush's GOP sprouted - the flag idolatry, the free pass for wacko pseudo-Christianity, the exceptionalism, the gun-happiness, the hypercapitalism, the savvy and gall to successfully market anything however useless or toxic, the easy can-do assumptions, the plutocratic extremes, the abnormally high incidence of stupid-but-nevertheless-articulate, the poverty of the minimum wage earner, the navel-gazing of schools and media, the red states that still haven't gotten over Abraham Lincoln, never mind Martin Luther King.
In short, the US was a big worry before Bush and will remain so after him. Which is not to say that millions of Americans don't share our concern. Best of luck guys - you'll need it.
Anyhow, we've also got to somehow explain our own national flaws for supporting our own miniBushes before and during their joint war crime that was and remains Iraq. For us, that's harder. It's easier to spot other countries' demons than one's own, but a few things are clear even to us. We're full of toadies who'd follow the US anywhere out of a fearful narrow short-term view of our their own self interest. Xenophobia and religio-cultural bigotry are rife here as well. Oh yeah, and we spawned Rupert Murdoch. Special apologies for that.
October 16, 2006 7:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
But it wont be a civil war in many Republican eyes until one side shows up in blue uniforms and another in grey... Then they will admit it is a civil war!
October 16, 2006 8:09 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think Terry has it about right here. Here is an article in Counterpunch lays out Rahm Emanual’s apparent strategy of promoting stay-the-course or soft-on-withdrawal candidates.
Here is another Counterpunch item analyzing this. I was reading this yesterday and wondering why we have not heard more about this in the blogs, at least. Does the Dem leadership (other than Dean) still think this is the only way to win? Are Dems going to be Republicans lite for the foreseeable future?
October 16, 2006 10:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
It isn't the constitution that's broken, it's the moral compass of our leaders. And no we don't have freedom of the press - we have the freedom of corporations deciding what we hear and see from the media. Short of another American revolution, I don't think we can fix what's wrong. When your government legalizes corruption, there's no legal recourse for the people to take.
I agree that all Americans are responsible for the atrocity that is Iraq.
October 16, 2006 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
With some, they haven't quite agreed that things were over in 1865. I always find it amusing, being a Yankee boy, to have grown up hearing 1861-1865 called the "Civil War", and then visiting the Museum of the Confederacy in Richmond. Some of the very proper volunteer guides refer to the "recent unpleasantness between the States".
Going further south, it's the "War of Yankee Aggression". There is a tale of a Northern professor, on her way to a conference in Atlanta, being pulled over by a police officer for speeding.
Apparently, he was very pleasant at first, suggesting "Ma'am, we aren't very familiar with people that move so fast in these parts."
It is not clear what she was thinking when she replied, "How about William T. Sherman?"
As she waited, in the lockup, for the judge, she did say the deputies were very nice, and even brought coffee to her cell.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
October 16, 2006 2:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
True Reed, the killing still goes on... but of course in Iraq, neither side has such distinct uniforms like they did back in 1861 (Blue & Grey). Perhaps if the Shiites and Sunni's not to mention the Kurds would wear colors, let's say red, white and blue, our Government mind be able to see the reality.
There is, however, one major difference between the two CIVIL wars. In ours, we had our country after, or two, whichever the case may have been. I'm not so sure that Iraqi's will have their own country when this one ends.
:crossing fingers:
October 16, 2006 3:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
With all the blather about promoting democracy, coalitions, liberal internationalism or whatever, the fact of the matter is the only allies worth a damn are those that speak English as a native language. From my neo-isolationist perspective, we should stop invading and stop defending everyone else.
October 16, 2006 3:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
The died-in-the-wool Southern version of the Civil War is the reason that Senator George Allen of Virginia mentioned the counties known as the state of West Virginia in a recent speech.
The countiesies split off around the time of the Civil War, becoming the state of Kanawha , later West Virginia. West Virginia joined the Union as a seperate state in 1863. Two more Virginia counties joined West Virginia in 1866.
October 16, 2006 5:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Keep in mind that the American civil war was fought largely with single shot rifles and a variety of small cannon. Compare that to a civil war fought with automatic weapons, 500 pound satellite-guided bombs dropped from F-15s, and IEDs made from the hundreds of tons of explosives scavenged from abandoned munitions depots.
Even after factoring in improvements in medical care, we'll be lucky if the bloodshed in Iraq's civil war is merely as bad as it's American counterpart.
The civil-war-to-civl-war comparison is long overdue. Remember the favorite excuse of '04, that the fighting wasn't throughout the country but only in a few areas? How many counties in the U.S. at any one time were seeing war-related violence in, say, 1862?
And if you really want to find a parallel in the two civil wars that is instructive, ponder the legacy of America's Reconstruction era.
Or if your tastes run more to irony, consider the Americans driving around with Confederate battle flag sticker on their vehicle and a "Support Our Troops" ribbon. Their insurgency: good. The Iraqi insurgency: evil. The whole civil war comparison really is rich in lessons, large and small.
The ~ 600K estimate of Iraqi deaths seems more plausible when put in the context of the estimate published by the Lancet, 18 months in to the war. That estimate was roughly 100K. We've had another 24 months since then; looking at the death rate reported by morgues, it's obviously accelerated, running about two and a half to three times the rate it was then.
Use the rate of increase in reported deaths to extrapolate from the numbers in the Lancet study, you're going to get something in the several hundred thousand - someone with more time and patience than me might be nice enough to crunch the numbers. I'm fairly sure it would come somewhere in the potential interval cited in this latest study, and might converge fairly closely with the highest confidence interval.
Bo Raxo
--
"Bother," said Pooh as Satan pointed out the small print.
October 17, 2006 2:32 AM | Reply | Permalink
You are 100% right, Hoppy.
However, there are problems with the House of Reps and the Census, too. Catch this from Prisoners of the Census (emphasis mine):
A different article from the same center reported how this affected upstate NY:
"...it was not always a given that the United States and America would have a close relationship." GWB, 6/29/06
October 17, 2006 2:55 AM | Reply | Permalink
Re: All these casualties were soldiers. Something which is true only for a limited number of Iraqi deaths reported.
Civilian casualties are not known in the American Civil war. In the early years of the war they were probably minimal, but in the last year or two they were probably quite enormous, especially in the wake of Sherman and Sheridan's marches where people would have starved and perished of disease in great numbers.
October 17, 2006 3:29 AM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm. It strikes me that comparisons between the Iraqi and American civil wars are fatally misguided.
For a real comparison, the United States in 1860 would have had to have been overrun and occupied (badly) by the French, who proceeded to loot and ruin everything they touched, while permitting and even encouraging the unimpeded growth of local militias in the North and South who then started shooting at each other, while California patiently put in place its plans for independence.
Hmmm... You know, the real comparison is not the Civil War itself but the French Occupation of Mexico, complete with a pedigreed foreigner installed on the throne.
October 17, 2006 7:42 AM | Reply | Permalink