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A multi-faceted, multi-pronged critique

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It seems to be something of a buyers market when it comes to American grand strategies -- because an awful lot of people are hawking them. Even as we're debating the relative merits of the Princeton Project's Forging a World of Liberty under Law here at TPM's Book Club, Anne-Marie and John's compatriots at America Abroad are debating Anatol Lieven, who proposes an "ethical realism" solution. Then there's Frank Fukuyama's "realistic Wilsonianism," Robert Wright's "progressive realism," Michael Mandelbaum's case for the American Goliath, and Lord knows how many others. Even the Bush administration felt the need to update its National Security Strategy this year.

In such a crowded market, Forging a World of Liberty under Law (I'll borrow from Stephen Walt's critique and call it FWLL) would appear to have three things going for it:

    • An emphasis on not having an emphasis -- that is to say, rejecting the notion that there is any single overarching threat that should be the focus of U.S. national security efforts.
    • Renewing the call for more international law and international institutions to channel and potentially augment U.S. power and influence at the global level; and
    • Advocating the continued, peaceful promotion of the rule of law and democratic institutions in other countries at the domestic level.

There are some interesting and compelling ideas contained within FWLL -- but agreement is boring, so let's get to the fun part. I fear that each of these advantages generate their own drawbacks:

1) A lack of prioritization: As John Ikenberry puts it, "the United States faces a kaleidoscopic array of threats in the 21st century – diffuse, shifting, and uncertain." Well, yes, but this is always the case. Immediately after World War II, some American policymakers were more concerned about a renascent British empire than they were about the Soviet Union. During the eighties, some policymakers asserted that beyond the Soviet Union, the United States needed to focus on the economic threat of Japan and Germany.

The point of a grand strategy is to prioritize, and FWLL simply refuses to do that.

What's odd about this is that prioritizing among the myriad issues contained in FWLL is relatively straightforward. FWLL quotes George Kennan's definition of national security as, "the continued ability of the country to pursue the development of its internal life without serious interference, or threat of interference, from foreign powers."

If that's the definition, then it seems pretty clear that the problems of global terror networks and energy independence merit priority status. Those are the two issues that have the capacity to immediately hamper the development of American society. The other issues raised in the report -- the rise of China, global pandemics, etc. -- are certainly serious. But in a worrld of scarce foreign policy resources, energy and terror are the problems that really hit home.

Intriguingly enough, Americans intuitively know this already -- if you look at the Chicago Council surveys of foreign policy attitudes among Americans, energy independence and combating terrorism always come in at the top of the priority list. Americans are far less interested in either democratization or the rise of China. Even North Korea's recent nuclear test, disconcerting as it was, does not rise to the level of these other threats (indeed, with every "test" of their missile or nuclear capabilities, the North Koreans demonstrate more flaws in their WMD program than strengths). Prioritizing energy independence and combating global terror networks would have the added advantage of developing a grand strategy that resonates with the American public, instead of force-feeding Americans additional policies that look to them like the foreign policy equivalent of spinach.

An additional concern with your multi-pronged, multi-faceted approach is how it would actually be executed. Three years after Operation Iraqi Freedom, the best critique that can be leveled against neoconservatism is that even if it sounds compelling on paper, the downsides are huge unless the policy is executed flawlessly. And no foreign policy is ever executed flawlessly. The downsides of not prioritizing among different foreign policy concerns might not be quite as disastrous as Iraq -- but they are troubling.

2) The trouble with international institutions. FWLL presents a compelling narrative of how the multilateral institutions created after Wolrd War II helped to buttress the American-led liberal order. Let me offer a somewhat different narrative. Many of these ballyhooed institutions -- the UN, the IMF, the World Bank -- were not terrible effective in their assigned tasks during most of the Cold War era. Indeed, they were so dysfunctional that the U.S. had to resort to a second wave of unilateral and minilateral initiatives -- the Marshall Plan, the Dodge Line, NATO, the G-7, even the Peace Corps -- to support the liberal order. My concern is that your brand of institutionalization will create more dysfunctional institutions, not more effective ones.

FWLL's counter might be that if institutions like the UN don't work out, then there's always the concert of democracies. What's fascinating about the "Concert of Democracies" idea is how many times it's been flagged since Francis Fukuyama's The End Of History and The Last Man -- and how many times the idea has gone nowhere in policy terms. Why do you believe your proposal will succeed when others have failed?

In FWLL, you stress the need to find common interests and institutions between the U.S. and China on issues such as energy, the environment, and avian flu. OK, focusing on common interests and all is great. The problem is that, as Steve Krasner pointed out 15 years ago, there will always be distributional concerns even in situation where there are commonality of interests. I can already envision China explaining that its status as a developing country prevents it from investing in pollution abatement, even as it persuades another African kleptocracy to allow Chinese state-owned enterprises a majority stake in some offshore drilling venture. It's not clear to me that FWLL has a contingency plan for what happens when institutions don't work -- except to create even more institutions.

Another point on this -- it's worth observing that the fastest-growing region on the planet also has the fewest international institutions. The East Asian disdain for formal international organizations and legally binding agreements raises a question for FWLL -- how does the United States get its East Asian partners to buy into the idea that more institutions and networks are a good thing? Culturally, won't this look like an intrusion of a Western-inspired order?

3) PAR is not up to par: FWLL says that:

In a world of Popular, Accountable, and Rights-regarding governments, the United States would have many more, and more effective, partners in our efforts to fight terrorism, nuclear proliferation, pandemic disease, economic crises, and a host of other threats.

I would love it if this statement was true, but I have my doubts. I'm currently reading Andrew Kohut and Bruce Stokes' America Against the World, and the key message in that book is that publics in other countries do not necessarily view the United States as a friendly or trusted partner.

The emphasis on popular government in a post-Iraq world is problematic for U.S. interests, because empowering public opinion in other countries encourages the formation of anti-American governments.

I have no doubt that Anne-Marie, John and TPM readers will counter that this is an ephemeral phenomenon due to the policies of George W. Bush. After perusing America Against the World, I'm less sanguine. Foreigners resented the United States in the nineties as the leading architect of economic globalization, and they resent Americans today not just because of our foreign policy, but because of our way of life.

Anti-Americanism did not start with Bush 43 and it won't end with him either. Why, as a matter of advancing the national interest, should the U.S. pursue policies that will empower the very groups that are most opposed to us?

There is a lot more to discuss -- but these are my priority issues.


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Foreigners resented the United States in the nineties as the leading architect of economic globalization, and they resent Americans today not just because of our foreign policy, but because of our way of life.

Sure, the US role in globalization played a role in fostering resentment; so did US "cultural imperialism"; and in some cases our "way of life" is the object of resentment. But it is a mistake to focus on some particular national characteristic or behavior as the root cause of anti-American resentment. The fact is that less powerful always resent the more powerful. It wouldn't matter if all of the other countries in the world were culturally identical to the United States, had the exact same way of life, and took exactly the same approach to globalization. So long as their countries were dominated by our country, they would find abundant reason to resent us.

Why did Red Sox fans resent the Yankees for all those years, and shout with glee whenever the Bombers suffered a mishap, and rejoice inwardly from satisfied shadenfreude whenever some pinstriped prima donna twisted an ankle or blew out is pitching elbow. Was it because they resented the "New York way of life"? No, its because the Yankees kept winning all those damn pennants and World Series, and Red Sox fans felt small and inferior and humiliated by comparison.

People always fear and resent power and wealth, and they struggle to undermine it and level it. This is eternal. The wiser heads who framed our system of government recognized that, and realized that civil peace must be based on a balance of power, which in the domestic realm is refered to as "checks and balances". But the current crowd of beltway liberal triumphalists can't wrap their heads around this timeless notion. They think that if America is once again "true to its values", everyone in the world will love us, elect us class president and want us to play "quarterback" on their team. Hardly. Those who envy and resent - including those who are not much different than us - will continue to try to diminish us, unless they happen to need us to fight off someone they resent or fear even more. We would do the same thing if we were in their position.

If a powerful, dominat country is so powerful and so dominant that the less powerful can do nothing about it, the latter will grumblingly suffer their domination - since the cost of resistance is too high. And if the dominance of that country is seen as temporary necessary evil to help the weak defend themselves against a more frightening and equally powerful common enemey, they will submit to the evil of domination so long as it is necessary to defeat the greater evil.

But in the absense of these contingencies, the less powerful will find numerous opporunities to work together to cripple or weaken the overlord's horse, or gradually undermine the foundations of his citadel.

Our choice is this: we can continue to follow an increasingly expensive and ultimately futile policy of maintaining our self-styled "hegemony" in perpetuity; or we can continue our desperate attempts to manufacture terrifying cosmic enemies - terrorists, or the Chinese, or asteroids and Octopus-monsters from space - to encourage all of our potential rivals band together with us against the evil ones; or we can work to build a global system based on genuine equality and checks and balances, so that the powerful forces of resentment and violent animosity are muted and harnessed, and an orderly civil life is possible.

It's theories of power here.

Aside from what power does to you when you use it (if you can just force someone to do what you want it will eventually become your default position and then you're a tyrant)--to maintain order you have to be reluctant to use it.

If you obey the laws the weaker powers don't feel as helpless, and feel like they have some recourse. That helpless feeling leads to resentment and frustration--I know, I'm a Democrat. And if I feel this way, I can see how you can go from a moderate to an extremist to an anti-US terrorist.

If you're shown as reluctant to use your power until many of them realize that something MUST be done, it is more non-threatening when it's used.

If you only use the power reluctantly, when you do strike you can strike will all your might (maximum application of force, diplomatic, economic, military etc.) at the right point guaranteeing a greater degree of success.

Even if actual balance of power is a paper-thin smoke screen or joke, if you act like it isn't you put a lot more people at ease and paradoxically have greater leverage and persuasive abilities and force (greater power!) to do what needs to be done.

All of the specifics of this critique are very thoughtful and well worth considering. However, the basic philosophy is one often invoked by conservatives, and it is profoundly misguided.

This philosophy says that when an institution and binding ties might produce unexpected consequences or screwing something up, it's better not to have any institutional effort. You see this in everything from their Cult of the Free Market Fairy to specious dismissals of any response to climate change to their approach to North Korea. Better to assume that chaos and war a state of nature than risk dysfunctional institutions. This problem with this is that it ultimately always involves hope over a plan.

Yes, we might end up making more dysfunctional institutions, but that's not really all that likely, and it's not really an excuse for sitting on one's hands. People aren't geenrally that incapable, individually or en mass. What is likely is that as we fix the old dysfunctions, we'll introduce new dysfunctions, and have to fix those. Is it any wonder why Wilsonian internationalism backed by this kind of philosophy fails?

No question that the instinct to build no institutions is a valid part of the debate, and sometimes a good tactic. But in the long run, avoiding ties and institutions produces chaos and instability. Can one really dispute that the world was more peaceful during the zenith of the UN than during other periods in history? The UN is indeed deeply dysfunctional, and definitely in need of reform. But that reform is not doing nothing or dismantling it.

Drezner's argument is also careful constructed to elide the difference between a state (Muslims are pissed) and a quality (the powerless now and forever shall resent the powerful). That is in order to beg the hard question, the one that requires years of painstaking work: what do we do so that in 10 years, Muslims overall resent us less, and the extremists are less likely to be able to attack us?

This should not be interpreted as a personal attack on Daniel Drezner, I think he's a smart and honest conservative, and I respect his opinion. But we should all be clear where we're arguing from and for most conservatives the starting point is Hobbesian inaction.

 
Then there's simply using your position of power against others, not much caring what "liberty" or "law" have to say about it — you can act under color of law to do what the law itself doesn't authorize (torture, anyone?), while charging your opponents with crimes whose definitions they technically haven't met, like "treason".

For instance, a federal grand jury has just returned an indictment for treason against an American member of al-Qaeda.

Why should this be surprising? Because the charge of treason presumes a state of war, and currently there is no state of war — except rhetorically.

Under the Constitution, treason is defined as giving aid and comfort to an enemy of the United States, and "enemy" means a state against which the United States has declared war.

Since the end of World War Two, the US has not declared war against any state. Even the so-called "war on terror" has not featured a literal declaration of war; nor is al-Qaeda a state.

This appears to be an attempt to get a state of war legally presumed without its being actually declared by Congress (the only body authorized to declare war).

More, since the American so charged has not been accused of any act of violence, but only of appearing in propaganda videotapes, there's a real question of how slippery that slope is, and how quickly "treason" might be applied to critics of the Administration — legally, and not just rhetorically as it already has been for the past five years.

-- Raven.               Say NO to Torture!         Prosecute War Crimes!

I would disagree with the comment of poster
electroniceric2 above that Daniel Drezner is a "smart and honest conservative". In my opinion, Drezner is neither smart nor honest nor is he a real conservative.

Rather, I think Drezner is that breed of academicians who, having run up large loans gaining degrees at expensive universities, are more inclined to curry favor with wealthy elites that to criticize them. Who
do not "speak truth to power" because they need the patronage of that wealth and power.
Especially if they have been turned down for tenure by the University of Chicago.

I suggest readers here try an experiment: Go out to Drezner's blog, log comments criticizing his positions and see how long it takes him to ban you from posting based upon some weak, made-up pretext. See also if he notifies the other readers that you have been banned or whether he instead maintains a facade of a free discussion on his blog --a salon where commenters just happen to largely agree with Drezner. A blog where dissenters just happen to make
brief appearances only to disappear --
routed ,no doubt, by the brillance of Drezner's intellect.

Don Williams

The REAL problem with American foreign policy is that vaguely defined "national interests" and "national security" are being used to justify creation of a global empire in which huge profits flow to the favored few while the huge costs --in blood, tax money, huge debt and lost jobs -- are dumped off onto a shrinking middle class.

The increasing concentration of wealth fostered by this system allows a small group of people to corrupt our political system and to bring on tyranny to protect their ill-gotten gains from social unrest. We are in the same destructive spiral that destroyed the Roman Republic --one of the few republics in history and the one upon which ours was modeled.

Rather than look at the Facts, professionals like Drezner mount erudite apologies for the acts of our plutocrats. Rather than look through the telescope of Galileo, Drezner does a hilarious imitation of a medieval cardinal desperately arguing that Aristotle's logic proves the sun revolves around the earth.

And so the daughters of West Virginia blue collar families join the Army --because there are damm few alternatives. As in the Roman Republic, our plutocrats prefer to import cheap foreign slaves and goods rather than employ the citizens who fight this country's wars and whose sweat created this country's wealth.

Those West Virginia daughters are sent to Iraq to be beaten and raped while President Bush's daughters model $4000 designer gowns on the cover of Vogue and continue their father's proud military tradition of never getting within 1000 miles of an active battlefield. A tradition shared by VP Dick Cheney and many Republican leaders.

Because of "bad intelligence" from an Iraqi name Ahmed Chalabi, our Army is tied down in a long bloody occupation of Iraq in order to seize non-existent WMDs. This means the Army is not free to deal with North Korea as it develops real WMDs. But it's not all gloom. Secretary of State Condi Rice --who had a Chevron oil tanker named after her -- greets Iraq's new Minister of Oil , who turns out to be ..ta da... Ahmed Chalabi.

And all those military bases and forces that President Bush is deploying into Central Asia don't seem to have captured one very tall Arab. But they are doing an admirable job protecting Chevron's $Billion investment in the huge oil deposits of the Caspian Sea. And while we promote "democracy" in Iraq , pigs will fly before you see Dick Cheney promoting the virtues of democracy to the tyrants of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Or to the tyrants of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Kuwait, for that matter.

Don Williams

For the record: I rated this post a 2 because it attacked the person rather than the person's position.  However, it did so quite politely, which is why it didn't get a 1.

I think MNPundit and Dan K make excellent points. Part of the problem now, in the short run at least, is how the US digs itself out of the political hole Bush has dug. He's turned many of our national security issues into pissing matches that have made it very difficult for us to pursue any option deemed to be strategically valuable. Bush talks about keeping all options on the table, but I think he has a habit of taking many off the table, intentionally or not. For example, suppose strategists determine bilateral talks with North Korea might be productive? How do we do this without looking like we've caved in, given everything Bush has said?

I'm not convinced that new instituions are necessary. I think we at least need a new national security doctrine that recognizes the power of political persuasion on the world stage. In my view, this was a crucial component Kennan's original paper on containing the Soviet Union. 911 may have changed some things, but it didn't change *everything*, and it's time we actively engaged our adversaries the way we did with the Soviet Union. The basic goal is national security, not chest-beating.

Let me also add one more thing: A country constantly having to bully others is a country who is not being obeyed.

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