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Woodrow Wilson Rides Again

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The final report of the Princeton Project on National Security—just released under the title Forging a World of Liberty under Law—is a lot like U.S. foreign policy itself. It is well-intentioned. It is hugely ambitious. It gets some things right, and is couched in a rhetoric designed to maximize its appeal here at home. And like much of American foreign policy under both Republicans and Democrats, it is flawed. It takes for granted the universal appeal of America’s liberal ideology, and assumes that most of our problems will vanish once the rest of the world adopts these principles.

To be sure, many elements of the report should command ready acceptance (at least here in the United States). The report correctly rejects the Bush’s administration’s militarized unilateralism and calls for the United States to employ many instruments of power in order to achieve its goals. It offers a more sophisticated analysis of international terrorism than the Bush administration has, and emphasizes treating terrorist networks largely as criminal enterprises rather than as military rivals. It recognizes the importance of sustaining an open world economy and calls for collective action to address global problems of public health (including pandemic disease) and environmental degradation (including global warming). Although many of its prescriptions hew close to the conventional wisdom, a few recommendations—such as a proposal for an immediate 50 cent/gallon gas tax—are almost bold. So most readers will something here to like.

That said, reading the entire report is disheartening, because it shows how little American liberal internationalists have learned over the past decade or more. Although the authors of the report are implicitly critical of the Bush administration’s disastrous combination of hubris and incompetence, the report reminds us of the extent to which liberal internationalists have been the de facto enablers of many of Bush’s mistakes. Why? Because liberal internationalists and neoconservatives share many of the same core beliefs. Both groups think American power is almost always a force for good, and both believe that most states (and especially most democracies) should welcome the energetic use of American power. Both liberals internationalists and neocons think the U.S. should use its power to spread democracy (or to use the Princeton Project’s new euphemism, “Liberty under Law”). Both see authoritarian governments and human rights violators as great evils, and think that the United States should use its power to get rid of the former and punish the latter. Both groups dislike weapons of mass destruction (and especially nuclear weapons), except in the hands of the United States and its friends. Given these points of agreement, it is hardly surprising that many liberal internationalists endorsed the neocons’ adventure in Iraq. The only significant difference is that liberals strongly support international institutions—which they see as critical to a stable “world order”—and neoconservatives don’t, because neocons see institutions as potential constraints on American power. If the neoconservatives are essentially liberals on steroids, then liberal internationalists are just kinder, gentler neocons.

True to its liberal internationalist roots, Forging a World of Liberty under Law (hereafter FWLL) portrays a world brimming with vast problems. The first sentence says it all: “On the fifth anniversary of September 11, the world seems a more menacing place than ever.” The United States “feels increasingly alone in the world,” and it faces “many present dangers.” One page later, we are told that “A national security strategy for the 21st century must address all the dangers we face—diffuse, shifting and uncertain as they are—and seize all the opportunities open to us to make ourselves and the world more secure.” In other words, the world is filled with troubles, and it is our job to get out there and fix them.

As a result, FWLL offers a breathtaking array of imperatives: Here’s a partial list, along with a few side comments of my own:

  • “We must take into account the totality of America’s interests….we must be serious about terrorism but serious too about East Asia, pandemic disease, and globalization.” [Is there anything we don’t need to be serious about?]
  • “America must stand for, seek and secure a world of liberty under law.” [And just what happens if we don’t succeed?]
  • "We must develop a much more sophisticated strategy of recognizing and promoting the deeper preconditions for successful liberal democracy.” [Do those “deeper preconditions” include absence of gerrymandering, reliable and easy voter registration, and accurate vote counts? At this point in America’s democratic evolution, a bit of humility might be in order.]
  • “The United States should make UN reform a top foreign policy priority, as part of a broader effort to rebuild a liberal international order for the 21st century. . . .We must take the lead and invest the time, energy and resources to accomplish significant reform.” [A worthy goal, but why should it be a “top” priority?”]
  • The United States should “work with its allies to develop a new global institution dedicated to the principles underpinning liberal democracy—a Concert of Democracies.”
  • The United States should “revive the NATO alliance by revisiting and updating the grand bargains that lie behind it.” [What? Do you mean to tell me that NATO isn’t in good shape, after a decade of “enlargement” and the development of an array of new post-Cold War missions?]
  • “The United States must take the lead in efforts to reform the main international financial and trade institutions, proving itself once again willing to subordinate its immediate commercial interests to its longer-term interest in being a global public goods provider.” [This will be easy, just like the Doha Round was easy.]
  • “We must rectify our irresponsible fiscal policies…reducing the current account deficit and increasing our savings rate…reallocate enough of our limited public resources to provide sufficient economic security for American workers…” [Sounds good, but hard to reconcile with the report’s other recommendations, most of which will cost a bundle]
  • “Maintaining a balance of power in favor of liberal democracies is likely to require a continued high level of U.S. defense spending, together with substantial contributions from our allies. . . . the military burden of underpinning a liberal order is substantial.” [No argument here, but see above about ‘reducing the current account deficit’ and below about rebuilding public health, public education, etc., and ask yourself where the money will come from.]
  • “The United States must assure that our deterrent remains credible…It also means maintaining a safe and flexible nuclear arsenal.” [OK, but see below about the need to ‘reinvigorate’ the Non Proliferation Treaty. Some non-nuclear states may see a tiny contradiction here.]
  • “The United States must do everything possible to achieve a peace settlement [between Israel and the Palestinians].” [The report correctly endorses a two-state solution, but it doesn’t really mean doing “everything possible,” because it explicitly rules out “forcing Israel to make peace.”]
  • “The United States should encourage a steady process of institution building in the Middle East.”
  • “The United States should lead efforts to revise and reinvigorate the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The United States must also engage in a range of counter-proliferation measures.” [See above re keeping our own nukes (and presumably continuing efforts to build national missile defense.]
  • “The United States should strive to establish an East Asia security institution that brings together the major powers. . . for direct and ongoing discussions about regional security issues.”
  • To address the danger of a global pandemic, “we must make critical investments in our public health system and improve the capacities of our first responders.” [OK, but see above re money]
  • The United States should “introduce a gasoline tax that would start at fifty cents a gallon and increase by twenty cents per year for ten years.” [I’d vote for this, but I ride a bike to work. Is anyone going to run for office on this platform?]
  • “We must build a stronger protective infrastructure…we must bolster our capacity to handle disasters once they hit. We must develop a sophisticated process of threat assessment and integrate our stovepiped decision-making structures, creating joined-up government.. . .Instead of creating new bureaucracies, we must link existing ones in innovative ways, such as informal networks, dual-hatting, and cross-agency training.” [In short, we must “reinvent government.” Where have I heard that before?]
  • “We must invest more in our public education system.” [Agreed, but once again: where’s the money going to come from?]
  • And on the seventh day, presumably we will rest. This is only a partial list of FWLL’s recommendations, and it is hard to imagine any administration achieving—or even Ii>attempting—more than a handful of them. The list partly reflects the collective nature of this sort of report—once you recruit several hundred participants, you are bound to get a lot of log-rolling and special pleading for different pet proposals--but the end result isn’t a strategy. Developing a strategy requires setting priorities and making hard choices among different goals. This is always hard for liberal internationalists to do, given their tendency to see all problems as interconnected, and their belief that Americans really do know what’s best for others and really do know how to solve all the world’s problems.

    Alert readers will have also noticed some striking similarities between the “Bush Doctrine” and FWLL. In his Second Inaugural, President Bush said that “the survival of liberty in our land increasingly depends on the success of liberty in other lands. The best hope for peace in our world is the expansion of freedom in all the world.” FWLL says we must “secure a world of liberty under law.” Bush’s 2002 National Security Strategy spoke of a “balance of power favoring human freedom”; FWLL speaks of a “balance of power favoring liberal democracies.” The 2002 National Security Strategy was skeptical of deterrence and emphasized preventive war; FWLL correctly resurrects deterrence but also endorses preventive action against “extreme states,” albeit only as a “last resort” and only if we can get approval from the Security Council, or “some broadly representative multilateral body” (presumably of our own choosing, like a “coalition of the willing”). There’s a bit of daylight here, but not much.

    Viewed as a whole, FWLL illustrates liberal internationalism’s faith that the spread of democracy (or “liberty under law”) will mitigate most of our problems and encourage broad acceptance of an American-centered “world order.” It might, but the record to date isn’t encouraging. FWLL proposes that we create a “Concert of Democracies” to advance the liberal ideal, and calls for other liberal powers to contribute more to the combined strength of this new coalition. Unfortunately, being democratic does not guarantee that other states will want to follow the US lead—remember the deep divisions over Iraq—and the more capable other democracies become, the harder it will be for the United States to exert leadership over them.

    The report also portrays “institutions” as the preferred solution to a wide range of international problem. Whenever and wherever problems arise, it says we should build, create, nurture, reform or revitalize an institution. This view misstates what international institutions can and cannot achieve. The academic literature on institutions shows that they can be a useful tool of statecraft, and that they help states achieve common interests in the face of temptations to cheat or free-ride. In this sense, the liberal internationalists’ support for institutions like the UN makes much more sense than the neoconservatives’ aversion to them. But institutions cannot get powerful states to ignore their own interests, and they are not particularly good at resolving significant conflicts of interest when they arise. The Middle East is not conflictive because it lacks institutions; rather, the Middle East lacks institutions because conflicts among and within these societies have been too deep and intense to allow effective institutions to be built.

    In touting the virtues of institutions, FWLL also assumes that any order we build will be acceptable to others. Thus, it begins its discussion on China by saying that our “primary task is to manage the Sino-American relationship in such a way that China can continue to achieve its legitimate ambitions within the current international order.” The current order is largely one of our making, however, and I suspect China’s leaders (and its people) will have some ideas of their own about their “legitimate ambitions” and the proper design of an “international order.” It also calls for the U.S. to strengthen a regional order that is “trans-pacific. . .in which the United States plays a full part.” Presumably the authors will have no objection if a more powerful China insists on playing a “full part” in the Western hemisphere at some point in the future.

    Finally, by prescribing a National Security Strategy where the United States continues to be responsible for all global problems and has to do most of the heavy lifting, FWLL will keep the United States on a path where we are more likely to betray our principles than to spread them. By encouraging the US to continue trying to run the world, FWLL ensures that we will continue to generate resistance in far-flung places. Sometimes that resistance will take the form of a stubborn nationalist autocracy, as in Milosevic’s Serbia, Hussein’s Iraq, North Korea, or Iran. Sometimes it will take the form of a terrorist organization such as Al Qaeda. We will always be tempted to solve such problems by using force—because we think it is our right and our obligation to do so—and sometimes we will succumb to that temptation. When we do, we will end up dropping bombs and launching cruise missiles onto people who may not have attacked us, or we will end up trying to occupy and govern some foreign population that we do not understand. And when we do that, we will probably face violent resistance, and we will end up torturing prisoners and committing other human rights abuses, because that is what occupiers do. Not because we mean to, of course, but because it is very, very hard to avoid.

    The more we try to run the world, and the more resistance we generate, the more that others will try to strike back at us. When they occasionally succeed, we will conclude that we really do face a hostile world, and our leaders will decide that some of our own freedoms much be sacrificed to keep us safe.

    There is a link, in short, between America’s self-proclaimed role as “leader of the free world” and the preservation of our liberty, but it is not the link that President Bush (and FWLL’s) suggest. They both think the energetic promotion of liberty abroad is essential to preserving our liberty at home. But the opposite argument is more compelling: the harder we try to force others to become like us, the more we shall place that freedom at risk. If the President can wage preventive war because he has (or has cooked up) some worrisome intelligence information, then it is a small step to incarcerating people without trial because he says he has some information that leads him to suspect them too. While he is at it, why not tap their phones and emails because they have foreign-sounding names, or because they traveled to Egypt last summer, or because they have a subscription to The Nation and attended a Dixie Chicks concert? Such worries sound far-fetched, of course, but how many of us would have predicted Guantanamo and Abu Ghraib a few years ago? I am certain that Ikenberry and Slaughter would be horrified by such policies and would oppose them vehemently, but the foreign policy they are recommending will encourage the further concentration of Presidential power, and gradually jeopardize “liberty under law” here at home.

    Let me emphasize that I am not arguing for a retreat to Fortress America, or for an abandonment of America’s core principles. As I argued in my book Taming American Power, it is in the U.S. interest to preserve its current position of primacy for as long as it can, and it should remain engaged with allies and friends around the world. It would also be desirable if more countries become democratic, largely because they are less likely to abuse their own populations if they do. But the United States can best accomplish that task by setting a good example, and that is where we are visibly failing. Overall, we can best promote our security and our values through a strategy of “offshore balancing,” intervening abroad only when there are large and direct threats to vital U.S. interests. Instead of trying to solve all the world’s problems, the United States should play “hard to get,” and force other states to pay a high price to gain our support. Paradoxically, the United States will be a lot more popular—and a lot more effective—if it stops trying to do everything itself.

    But that wise course is unlikely—at least for awhile—because the United States remains very powerful and is still convinced of its own rectitude. It is very hard for a country like ours to resist the urge to remake the world. FWLL approvingly quotes Henry Kissinger to just that effect; in his words, “the war on terror is not the ultimate test of U.S. foreign policy, which is, above all, to protect the extraordinary opportunity that has come about to recast the international system.” This is as clear an example of hubris as one might ask for, and as long as our leaders define U.S. foreign policy in this way, Americans had better get used to disappointment.


    4 Comments

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    I'll say the same thing I've said in all the other postings on this topic over the past few days. The US has yet to acknowledge that we are consuming more "stuff" than is sustainable. This goes for us, especially, but is true of the entire world. As raw materials get more scarce and population continues to expand the only alternatives for the US to maintain its "way of life" are via military force.

    This is the course we are presently on, with the implied consent of the governed. Not one mainstream economist or politician is willing to discuss what a steady-state society would look like or how we would transition to one.

    So, whether the quest for cheap raw materials and finished goods is cloaked in terms of spreading democracy and western "values" or in terms of national security the bottom line is the same: they have stuff we want and we are going to do our utmost to get it.

    From this all else follows.

    --- Policies not Politics
    Daily Landscape

    Professor Walt, that is an outstanding rebuttal!  I have long believed that it will be impossible for the world to sustain the current order, where a few very wealthy nations consume most of the resources, enjoy high living standards, and work to maintain that status quo.  Until the standards of living for all of the nations in the world are much closer to equality there cannot be a world at peace.  For that reason we can't expect capitalism, which emphasizes greed and exploitation, to be the dominant economic system in the world.  I'm not optimistic about our country leading the world towards a better economic system. 

    Hoppy in Sacramento

    J. McCutchen


    My epithet the NeoCons as the Wilson 2.0's evil twin was getting a bit shopworn.

    Anatol Lieven calls them "Tweedledee, Tweedledum"

    "If the neoconservatives are essentially liberals on steroids, then liberal internationalists are just kinder, gentler neocons"
    is a nicely turned phrase in a wonderfully trenchant critique of the Princeton work.

    Thank you both for the new ways of saying the same thing and for your eagerly awaited, but much too long delayed appearances here at TPMC.

    The "Indispensable Nation's" neocon/neoWilsonian foreign policies are in tatters. Realists like Lind, Lieven, your colleague John Mearsheimer, yourself challenge the fading yet regnant Wilsonian orthodoxy to acknowlege past errors and develop a substantively new, practicable national strategy.

    “The United States should make UN reform a top foreign policy priority, as part of a broader effort to rebuild a liberal international order for the 21st century. . . .We must take the lead and invest the time, energy and resources to accomplish significant reform.”

    This kind of baloney sticks in my craw!

    First of all, without specifying some objective (sorry, but "rebuilding a liberal international order" doesn't do it) in the push to reform, this statement is no more than a nod to the neocon threat to reform the UN into oblivion. So far, UN reform means getting the UN to align itself more with US interests. This is exactly the opposite of what needs to happen at the UN.

    tb

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