Lambsdorff Outlines Sensible European Approach Towards Middle East In Light of American Failures
Yesterday, I hosted a meeting with European Parliament Member Alexander Graf Lambsdorff (and Deputy Chairman of the Free Democracts in the European Parliament) who gave a talk titled: "Europe's Evolving Stakes in the Middle East."
The meeting was assembled by the New America Foundation/American Strategy Program and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.
Lambsdorff outlined a sensible strategy for Europe in the Middle East, that still "hoped for" enlightened American engagement in the problems there. But he was skeptical of the ability or desire of this particular White House to move in positive directions. This was an important set of public remarks that should be read in full.
But here are two highlights that I thought were important and insightful:
The question people are asking is: Are we not moving into an area in which we will be confronted only with losing propositions? Are we not trying to do the impossible, achieve the unachievable? Should we not leave it to the US and look after other regions of the world? After all, how likely is Hamas to recognize Israel in all honesty? How likely is Iran to give up its nuclear enrichment program?They also point out that there is a limit to how much they are willing to pay, and wait, and see, as happened in the Palestinian case. There is a limit as to how many destroyed buildings, airports and roads Europe is willing to reconstruct. The airport in Gaza was built with taxpayers' money from my German home state -- and was destroyed by the Israeli air force. Not a good scenario either. And now, Lebanon.
The decision by the European countries to send troops to Lebanon reflects the conclusion that only a strong political involvement in a conflict -- embodied in the use of military forces -- will allow Europe decisively to influence the outcome of a conflict. It is also the answer to the sceptical voices, to the “isolationist” streak, that Europe is willing to put up a serious effort.
For Germany, specifically, a military mission close to the Israeli border is a historical novelty, to say the least. There was a lively debate, as you can imagine, whether the country that perpetrated the Holocaust could move into an area in which its soldiers might be forced to shoot at IDF members. This discussion took an interesting turn when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert invited German soldiers to help secure the Israeli border and disarm Hezbollah. This was a difficult invitation. If Germany was to participate in such a mission, it was to implement UNSCR 1701, not to protect a party to the conflict.
On the other hand, it is part of Germany's raison d'etat to help secure Israel’s right to existence. Yet another part of German raison d'etat, however, is to strengthen and support the United Nations. The way out of this dilemma was found with Germany sending naval forces to guard Lebanon’s seashore against weapons smuggling by Hezbollah. Still, 2/3 of the German public is opposed to a mission where German soldiers might have to shoot at Israeli soldiers.
The willingness of European nations to risk their troops in one of the most dangerous regions in the world clearly means that Europe’s engagement in the future of the Israeli-Arab conflict has moved to a new level. Financial means and political brains are now backed up by military muscle.
Then, Alexander Graf Lambdorff got into the question of negotiations, objectives, and interlocutors:
The second question we have to answer is: Who do we talk to? Can we talk to Hamas, can we talk to Hezbollah, can we talk to Syria?Let’s start with Syria. I believe that the continued isolation of Syria will prove to be counterproductive. Syria and Israel need come to a peace deal. Syria currently sees itself more isolated than ever. Even Arabs friendly to the idea of the destruction of Israel, are unhappy with Syria doing this on the back of the Lebanese people. "Syria is fighting Israel to the last Lebanese" is the word on the street in Aman and Cairo. In an interview in the Spanish newspaper El Pais on Monday President Assad said he was prepared to resume peace talks with Israel within 6 months. A solution to the Sheba'a Farms issue, disarming Hezbollah, and clarifying once and for all what the role of Syria is vis-a-vis a sovereign Lebanon: under these conditions a deal is possible that is sorely needed. In a way, I believe it is ironic that we talk to Iran despite its policies because of its nuclear program but refuse to do so regarding Damascus.
Hamas and Hezbollah are more difficult. Scholars of the region point out that it will be utterly impossible to achieve a lasting solution without the involvement of modern Islamist movements. They point to the fact that unlike Al-Qaeda both Hamas and Hezbollah have a military and a political arm (much like the IRA and Sinn Fein in Northern Ireland). Both participate in electoral processes -- where they have more to fear from winning than from losing, but that may be a useful lesson. As for Hamas -- their electoral platform was: "The party of reform" -- The Fatah platform was "The party of the martyrs."
But we will talk to Fatah only. That is difficult to explain. Now, does Hamas have to recognize Israel? Absolutely. Do they have to renounce violence? Absolutely. Do they have to respect the accords signed by the PLO? Yes, they do. Do they have to do it before one starts to talk to them. This is a crucial and a difficult question. But finding an answer to it should not be an insurmountable obstacle. And, make no mistake about it, peace with Syria alone is not going to solve Israel's existential question of how to live safely next to the Palestinians -- the two processes must at the very least go hand-in-hand.
Hezbollah is perhaps more difficult even than Hamas. But here also, they do not pursue a nihilistic campaign of the Al-Qaeda kind. Are they terrorists? They are. But they are a political force as well. They have two ministers in the Lebanese government, after all. Was Arafat a terrorist? He sure was. But he was the sole partner capable of delivering the Palestinians, despite his past as a terrorist, his role as the instigator of the second intifada, despite his mind-boggling corruption and all the other things that could rightfully be laid at his doorstep.
It may be too early but we will have to look at Islamism with a more discriminating eye than we have in the last few years. More often than not, Islam is the only avenue for political opposition. The governments in the region can and often do withhold all basic civil rights -- but they cannot close the mosques or outlaw Islam. Voters are also often less radical than party members. A significant part of Hamas voters favors the recognition of Israel, some even say a majority does.
The third question is: Who needs to be involved, and the answer is obvious: Europe cannot do it alone, just as the US can't. However, these days European engagement is stronger than American one and I hope that this is going to change after Secretary Rice's trip to the region. We need the US to be involved again. We need to revive the Quartet with substantial US input.
The key word behind this is of course 'Effective Multilateralism', i.e. the doctrine adopted by the EU in 2003 for international affairs. Of course, we wish for a world in which countries bind themselves into a network of laws, obligations and institutions, like the EU itself. By projecting the European vision of rules-based, predictable and institutionalised international relations, the EU is hoping to solve problems and, yes, increase its global influence.
But a doctrine alone is not going to solve any problems. The political will to back it up is also needed. Today, Europeans are willing to use military force in the Middle East to back up their vision. This is clearly not the end of it, much remains to be done, but it is a difference and I hope and believe that it will make a difference -- for the Middle East, for the EU and for a world of effective multilateralism.
This speech by Lambsdorff should be read by key national security officials in the White House, intelligence and defense bureacracies and the State Department because it reflects the 'best America can hope for' from a US-sympathizing elite European figure.
When one combines the Lambsdorff speech yesterday with the fact that earlier this week Condoleezza Rice was given a stiff rebuke by eight Arab Middle East foreign ministers who told her that the moderates she was trying to rally were increasingly fragile situations and could not muster much support for America's position on Iran and Iraq without making some important steps on Palestine/Israel and other regional grievances.
The Europeans and Arab states are united in perspective -- and Rice needs to deliver that back to the powers she works with in the White House so as to break the logjam that is now paralyzing sensible American policy in the region.
-- Steve Clemons is Senior Fellow and Director of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation and publishes the popular political blog, The Washington Note















Count Lambsdorff doesn't really say anything that hasn't been said by most informed Europeans during the last years. One would rather conclude that this is, if not a concensus, at least it is mainstream. Possibly, one might increasingly hear doubts about a two-state solution in Palestine.
Another slight evolvement of the opinion climate is that one now very seldom hears from thinkers and opinion leaders the hope that the U.S. unwise reactions after September 2001 will prove to be brief and transitory.
The appointment yesterday of Carl Bildt as Foreign Minister of Sweden will maybe contribute to a vitalization of the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy. Two days before was published an appeal for a new push towards peace in the Middle East, signed by a large number of public leaders around the world. Bildt, like also Brzezinski, Jimmy Carter, and McNamara belonged to the signers proposing:
October 7, 2006 10:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
This is all very interesting but but it doesn't seem to solve any of the pressing issues. In a nutshell the message from Europe seems to be: Multilateral negotiations must accompany any and all military action.
In light of the Bush administration's failures, this seems to be a point that is blatantly obvious.
The one thing that struck me most in your post was the part toward the end. When speaking of Rice's inability to gain the alliance of Arab moderates in the region, it says, "Arab Middle East foreign ministers who told her that the moderates she was trying to rally were increasingly fragile situations and could not muster much support for America's position on Iran and Iraq without making some important steps on Palestine/Israel and other regional grievances."
Why is it that moderate Arab's cannot take a leadership role in this situation? An expectation by Arabs to see the U.S. and Europe lead a peace process seems to be a bit presumptuous, especially since the two cultures don't exactly get along.
October 7, 2006 11:24 AM | Reply | Permalink
At this point, I'm reduced to hoping the US just gives up and gets out and leaves it compeltely to the Europeans. No covert missions into Iran, no selling military supplies to Israel, no pressures on Syria. Increasingly I feel that only having an actual war in the 48 states will open people's eyes but I'd hate for things to be that way.
You've only made it worse Bush Administration, and you've tapped into horrible and insane feelings in the American electorate to do so.
Just.
Give.
Up.
Then I remember Iraq and the urge to go into the bathroom and quietly slit my wrists is strong.
October 7, 2006 12:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
Congratulations to everyone who makes this site so readable. You've made Playboy's list of must read blogs.
Nice job!
October 7, 2006 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
While I see that much of the Iranian problem is being blamed on the Bush administration here, and they certainly aren't totally absolved of blame, this is a problem that is at least 20 years old. It didn't begin in 2000 with the election of Bush.
We already have a nuclear armed Israel,India and Pakistan in the region and while none have used their arsenals yet it can possibly be viewed as Pakistan being the Iran and India being Israel in terms of countering weights of nuclear powers in the regions if Iran goes nuclear. That is really just wishful thinking though. Pakistan, while hardly being guilt free of terror involvement is nowhere near Iran in terms of the innocent blood it has on it's hands. Iraqis, Afghans, Israelis, Lebanese, Iranians, etc.
As most of the posters seem to already know, Iran with nukes is a disaster waiting to happen. The good news is the DNI recently noted that he thinks they are still a few years away from nukes, as does the IAEA.
When it comes down to it Iran needs to be squeezed by pressuring the countries who refine their oil and totally shut it down if need be, blockade their ports, bring Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, Kuwait, UAE and the other Sunni countries in the region in and ask them
"Do you want a Shi'ite Persian country strongarming the region?"
If they say no, they'd be my first choice to pressure Iran.
October 7, 2006 1:09 PM | Reply | Permalink
If the Bush administration was inept but harmless, the rest of the western world could simply ignore it. It is indeed inept but it is not harmless.
For example: In a recent book, "What Terrorists Want," the author suggests that terrorists want revenge, renown, and reaction. By declaring "war" on them, we satisfy these wants.
For example: Isn't it a natural reaction of people who see their country attacked, their families killed, and their property destroyed to not love the people who are bombing them? Yet, we heard the deciders and designers of the Iraq war express their dismay that we were not greeted with flowers and parades by the Iraqi people after we bombed the hell out of their country.
Perhaps it's pie-in-the-sky, but the first step toward a sane and sensible ME policy would be to exclude the United States from the process.
October 7, 2006 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
My other blog on intelligence/security matters
www.securitywatchtower.com
October 7, 2006 2:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The problem with this approach is that once the money spigot is turned on Hamas will have no need whatsoever to do anything in these "talks."
The sons of the prophet are noble and bold,
and quite unaccustomed to fear.
But the bravest by far in the ranks of the Shah
was Abdul Abulbul Amir
October 7, 2006 8:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
You make some excellent points. But here's the thing...how do you propose pressuring the other countries in the region when dealing with an Iran that may decide to develop nukes? We have no credibility in the region, and why would they go along with us?
Also, what if these countries drag their feet ala some of the African countries surrounding the Sudan? What if they don't apply pressure? Where's your Plan B?
At least you recognize the danger in having yet another theocratic regime with nuclear weapons. Some folks seem to not care about it at all, as long as it doesn't affect them personally.
October 7, 2006 8:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, not to get in the way of anyone's hysterical paranoia...
But let me just point out, as I keep pointing out over and over:
There isn't actually any evidence that Iran actually is pursuing a nuclear weapon. None. Zip. Nada. Zilch. Zero. The big empty. No way. That tank is empty.
The line of reasoning that argues, despite a complete absence of hard evidence, that Iran really is seeking a nuclear weapon is "we... they're bad!!! Baaaaaaad!!!!"
Sorry, irrational hysteria is not a basis for a respectable or coherent foreign policy. Or any foreign policy.
Meanwhile, the best estimates are that even if Iran does manage to make a nuclear weapon, its about 10 years till they have one. And another five to ten years before there is a reliable delivery system, and they have enough stockpiled to make a credible threat.
So, let's can the hysteria and talk rationally?
Sure, Iran is baaaaaaaaaad. Yep. Got that. Here ya. On the other hand, how many countries has Iran invaded or attacked that last 30 years?
Zero.
One war, and that was started by Iraq. No other military adventures.
In contrast, how many little military adventures has the US had its hand in the last 30 years?
Iran, Lebanon (RR), Somalia, Bosnia, Kosovo, Haiti, Grenada, Panama, Columbia, Sudan, Afghanistan (CL), Afghanistant (BII),Libya, Iraq (B1), Iraq (CL), Iraq (BII), Venezuala, Lebanon (BII), etc.
How many dead Iraqi's are there from Bush's little adventure? 200,000? 300,000? How many dead Afghans?
Now I'm not out here to denounce America.
I'm just saying lets get a grip, okay.
October 8, 2006 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
I hardly think appeasing terrorists is a sensible approach towards the Middle East, but that's just me. Perhaps I am being islamophobic.
October 9, 2006 10:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well, appeasing terrorists did nothing to stop Israel dropping bombs on civilians, so you've got a point.
But then, perhaps that's not what you were thinking of?
It strikes me that the current policy of aimlessly floundering around like a drunk drowning in a bathtub is not a sensible approach towards the middle east.
But perhaps I am being a Bush-hater.
October 10, 2006 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink