GRATEFULLY ADDING
Everyone should be so lucky as to have such fine readers and commentators: they collaboratively improve on the product, which is one of Yochai's great points.
I hurry to assert a comment and a riposte. I am not indeed DLCentric. I am, for their likes, too convinced of the need to open markets by force of law and regulation and to bolster entrepreneurship at the individual and company level by substantial doses of public goods. That's the riposte.
The comment is this: there's no doubt, to my way of thinking, that the government played a very large, even critical, role in launching, encouraging and extending the information revolution, with accompanying market boom & bust, job growth and income growth. If the government were to do anything remotely like breaking up AT&T and launching the open Web and unbundling the telcos when it confronts health care and energy, then the potential for creative destruction and its many chaotic, positive consequences would be unbounded.
By contrast, it is, I fear, dangerously wrong to think that the American response to China can be well-managed by statism, by big firms acting in concert with government, by a so-called national strategy, or just by educating people a little or a lot more. We have to open closed markets, create new markets, start more firms, disrupt more of the status quo, be much more insistently Schumpeterian across the board. And no party advocates that; no one on an antitrust committee urges that; no would-be candidate for President yet is saying that.
Similarly, the global response to climate change requires not centralized state-directed taxation or reallocation of benefits or funded programs of cure or prevention. Success depends instead on an explosion of scarcely planned, near chaotic, rightly directed but tactically unguided entrepreneurship in the creation, distribution and consumption of energy.
I could go on. But back to book and comments, please. And thanks again to all! R.















Well, I'll say this much for Reed. He's tenacious.
Unbounded? Nope. No hyperbole here.
I admire Reed's optimism. I can imagine him happily wacking away at a box of metal fillings for hours on end until the potential for creative destruction and its many unbounded chaotic, positive consequences assembles a Rolex for him.
Of course, out here in the real world creative destruction sounds really good, but it often produces all sorts of body counts.
Sometimes creative destruction is simply destruction. Been to Afghanistan lately? Lots of creativity over there.
The reality is that the world is a complex place full of interrelationships. Destroy an interrelationship, you open up opportunities for the component parts to find new relationships.
However, there is a cost that comes with breaking the old relationship. Entropy takes its due.
Will the new relationships that form be an improvement? Odds are some will, some won't.
Keep stirring the pot, and statistically, sooner or later, almost everyone winds up a loser.
Reed, seems to want, in all this 'creative destruction' a minimal role for the government to provide a social safety net to keep everyone from losing too badly, and to keep bouncing back into the system over and over again. And perhaps, to keep introducing chaos so as to keep the pot boiling. Thus, a dual role as both instigator and protector.
But he seems uncomfortable with either role, hence his antipathy towards taxation, national policies, income redistribution, etc.
I dunno. It's working pretty well for China and India, isn't it? Isn't that part of the key to their success? And Japan's success? And South Korea's success? Taiwan's success? Sweden's success? France's success? Germany's success?
Seriously, Reed seems to be dismissing a collective approach which has served the United States very well during the New Deal/WWII, Baby Boom era, which has served many countries quite well.
So what's the objection? It's icky? The buzzwords for it aren't exciting enough?
Where?
How?
When?
Why????
Sometimes a prophet is not honoured in his own land. And sometimes a prophet is just a loony crackpot on a soapbox.
Hmmm. Why not? Just curious, but is there a non-ideological reason why coordinated state responses, taxation, reallocation of benefits and funding programs to cure, prevent or moderate effects are doomed to failure. Seems that similar efforts did quite well with little things like the Depression, WWII, the Dutch Poulder systems, interstate highways, communication systems, etc.
Because this approach has worked so well for New Orleans?
So how is 'scarcely planned' different from 'near chaotic', or for that matter, how does either differ from 'tactically unguided'? Or are we living better through redundant buzzwordiness?
Indeed 'rightly directed' come about in a near chaotic, tactically unguided, scarcely planned system.
I presume that the notion is that Governments should just, oh I don't know, put a bounty on the forehead of global warming and let the marketplace figure it all out.
There's an old story that once upon a time, the Hong Kong government put a bounty on rats, to solve the rat problem. Eager entrepreneurs immediately started farming rats. Huan nature, its a funny old thing, ennit.
I could go on, but I think I'll just wrap it and say that I admire Mr. Hundt's persistence. This is the fourth thread and so far the reception has been uniform. But he keeps swinging away.
Good for him.
September 26, 2006 9:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
See, and I thought the Telecom Act of 1996 was just such an example of "big firms acting in concert with government." But you were there, and I wasn't.
I keep going back to this "false dichotomy" - here, we either have "centralized statist planning" or "decentralized entrepreneurialism," which sounds all too much like the tired old debate about market vs. planning.
I think any national response to the challenges posed here will require some planning, whether centralized or decentralized with a generous dose of traditional American individual initiative.
I don't see, for example, how we can wean ourselves off of foreign oil without better public planning of all kinds: land-use, transportation and infrastructure investment, etc, whether at national, state, or local levels. Tax codes will have to be re-designed to encourage "greener" approaches in all of these areas. Is this "statism"? Who cares? It's essential to do the things we need done.
Thus it makes no sense to rehash these old "state v market" debates. We need both. We need to be making the case for open, democratic government under the rule of law at all levels with expanded capability to analyze these problems, and propose and execute solutions (with much more public participation than has usually been the case, I would hope). Alongside, and facilitating individual entrepreneurship. Not in opposition to it.
September 26, 2006 10:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
Reid,
Creative destruction might be just swell for highly educated professionals like yourself, with a resume that includes a stint at the top of a federal agency, and a Yale college and Yale law education. You can write a pretty good ticket for yourself in this world, no matter how many times it falls apart and is put back together again.
It's not so great for the blue collar or white collar family with two working spouses, whose jobs are creatively destroyed several times over; who then get creatively separated so they can go pursue "opportunity" elsewhere; who have to creatively sell a house full of memories so they can go start over in some strange place; whose group of close friends has been creatively downsized over the years for 20 to 10 to 6 to 2 to 0; who might drift into alcoholism and drug use or other problems out of loneliness, and because there is no longer anybody around who really knows them and notices the difference; whose lives are filled with unremitting work, because they have had to start over several times at the bottom of the creatively destructive corporate food chain and "prove themselves" through heavy toil to their new managers, and show that they are willing to work even more like a dog than the other poor soul creatively competing with them in the next cubicle.
I don't know what kind of personal life you have. Maybe you're just a rolling stone, a gun for hire, and these changes just represent "bumps" on the road of life. One adjusts and rambles on. But not everybody wants to live that way. I think the American dream for most people is still to get married; have kids; buy a house and settle down; get a good job and move over time into postions of higher responsibility; work and relax among people who know you and care about you; help govern their communities along with other people who are deeply invested in that community because it is truly their home; be able to continue living in their house even after they retire, so their children and grandchildren want to come back and visit them. I'd really appreciate it if people in the well-educated managerial class would just put half as much time into figuring out how to provide people with the lives they really want as they put into figuring out how to creatively destroy everything people care about so we can "compete" with the damn Chinese - or with whomever constitute the latest economic "threat".
Your vision is just palin old Social Darwinism, postmodern style, no matter how much you try to soften its edges with a few compensatory social programs. I guess the Democrats are now fully invested in the great American hustle and its savage separation of winners and losers. It's just that Democrats are also in favor of giving the losers a few more consolation prizes - maybe some portable health insurance so that if their quality of life sucks, at least their quality of death won't be too bad. Competition, entrepreneurship, struggle, flux - these are now the ideals of "the people's party."
Take your social safety net and shove it. I don't want to hear exclusively about how we are going to catch people when they fall in the go-go economy. I want to hear more about how we are going to prevent so many people from falling to begin with.
September 27, 2006 5:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
The world is changing. That causes a new mix of winners and losers. Once the world was an agrarian economy displaced by manufacturing. Manufacturing also destroyed cottage industries across the globe. We live in an age of fear. The Left terrorizes people over the issue of economic change and the Right over
"Islamo-fascism." Both groups seem to have no grasp on the real world and the real threats and the interrelationship between the two sets of fear.
It is true that Asian economies and Sweden, we will see how the new government of Sweden deals with this issue, but how individualistic are those societies, especially in Asia? Japan has just gone through a 15 year recession depression after reliquifying the United States. How and where will these economies get their capital?
Government has to mitigate the pain that those who are not going to benefit from the new global economy. It seems very doubtful that they will really be able to stop it as they will not be able to force people to either innovate nor part with their money for investments.
Daniel A. Greenbaum
September 27, 2006 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
I've just spent the last five years dealing with creative destruction, combined with long-term, debilitating illnesses in the family. I am not impressed.
Does anybody know a vitamin supplement that can counteract the medical effects of unemployment that Libertine described?
September 27, 2006 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
I recently heard of a medical report (and I will try to track down the source and link it) that said people who were fired or laid off died much younger on average then people whose job security was never in doubt.
I would be all for deregulation if deregulation actually led to more diversity in the private sector. It doesn't. All it does is allow the big companies to gain a monoplistic control in the marketplace. But, Reed, if you are suggesting that we somehow throw open our marketplace to real competition it might help...but the benefits wouldn't even begin to be felt until 10 years out at a minimum. Ten years out is not how politicos look at policy. They want to support policies that have real and immeadiate impact. And on top of that those same politicos who have been lavished with money from corporations are the same people you look to take the competitive advantage away from the corporations...and those companies would say to that "over my dead body".
But getting to health care I don't think the private sector is the way to go. We need a radical departure from free market "for profit" health care if we want to be economically competitive in the global marketplace. That means socialized medicine where everybody can have access to medical care with little or no money out of their pocket. That means taking on insurance companies, trial attorneys, and a whole host of businesses getting rich off of keeping people healthy. And have health care professionals be worried about only one thing...their hippocratic oath. A healthy population will be a productive population.
September 27, 2006 2:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sticks and stones and all that.
Real problems demand careful study and incremental pragmatic response that studies the ongoing effects, makes objective assessments, discards what doesn't work and refines what does.
On the other hand, ideological buzzword salad that uses pie in the sky language and drops 'entrepeneur' in five times in a six paragraph article does not impress.
Reed's appetite for creative destruction reminds me of Chairman Mao's visionary efforts to remake Chinese society, like the 'Great Leap Forward' and the 'Cultural Revolution.'
September 27, 2006 2:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
Buzzword Salad
Good Buzzwords used: open markets bolster entrepreneurship at the individual and company level by launching, encouraging and extending the information revolution, with accompanying market boom & bust, job growth and income growth unbundling confronts the potential for creative destruction and its many chaotic, positive consequences would be unbounded open closed markets, create new markets, start more firms, disrupt more of the status quo, explosion of scarcely planned, near chaotic, rightly directed but tactically unguided entrepreneurship in the creation, distribution and consumption.
Bad Buzzwords used: statism, by big firms acting in concert with government, by a so-called national strategy, centralized state-directed taxation or reallocation of benefits or funded programs.
Geez
September 27, 2006 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well said, Valdron.
September 27, 2006 6:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
We will need a little oil on that salad.
September 27, 2006 6:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
I like that phrase, "Buzzword salad" - you have a gift for getting to the point, Valdron.
If we have to have creative destruction, the risks should be borne by those who are most capable of withstanding the losses, not by those who are just trying to take care of their families. But the whole point of modern management theory is to displace risks onto someone else, without regard to the identities of the victims.
It is one thing to theorize at 30,000 feet. It is something else to go through living hell. Not to know the difference strikes me as almost sociopathic.
September 27, 2006 6:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sadly, I also have a gift for being an obnoxious jerk, as Artappraiser will tell you and I'll freely admit. Unfortunately, I think that these qualities are inseparable.
My old Corporate law professor, quite a character by the way, name of Art Braid. Polio victim got around on crutches, and moved faster than most of us wayward students once shocked me.
"What's the easiest way to generate credit for your business?" he said. "Don't pay your bills."
Could have knocked me over with a feather. It was that blunt and counterintuitive.
But his point was that if you can offload your costs onto someone else, then thats the same as making money. If you can get away with not paying your bills, you're ahead. If you can get someone else to pick up the tab, you're great.
The reality of modern business, of all business, in contrast to Reed's fervent proselytizing is 'risk management' not 'risk taking.'
The reality is that 'risk taking' is basically gambling. The very concept of risk is uncertainty. Neither rewards or losses are guaranteed, both are a possibility. Statistically, everyone loses eventually.
The most successful businesses are the ones that are most effective at managing risks. Complain all you want about crony capitalism or the military industrial complex... but both of those areas of capitalism are effectively risk free. No matter what mistakes you make, how many, or how huge, you can't fail. Risk eliminated.
Corruption, direct or systemic of elected officials eliminates or reduces risk. Monopoly and oligopoly minimizes or reduces risk. Predatory business tactics reduce or minimize risk. It pays off, and it pays off big time.
Of course, risk doesn't ever actually go away. What you are doing is merely shifting around who gets to undertake or underwrite that risk, those potential losses. Usually the government, the consumer, the workers.
Reed imagines that if we can just jigger the system right, then everyone will go out and be risk takers and we'll have some creative, explosive, chaotic utopia where all problems are solved by the endless efforts of all to sell hats to all.
Okay, I'll admit its a genuinely better vision than some darwinian 'war of all against all.' But still, I don't see it as all that realistic or viable.
The reality is that even if Reed jiggered the system correctly, he wouldn't necessarily get more than a burst of risk takers. What invariably happens when a frontier is opened is that a whole bunch flood in, and then half of them lose their shirts immediately. Then a few start to figure out how to game the system or transfer their risks or simply cheat, and they pull ahead. Sometimes, often, there's an element of luck. Then eventually, the big guys start to purge the little guys, as part of risk elimination. And finally, there's just a few big guys left, and they're usually cooperating to ensure stability. Standard oil at the turn of the last century, Wal-Mart and Microsoft at the turn of this century. The players change, but the play remains the same.
Not sociopathic. Just human nature. Reed is not a stupid guy. Reed knows Reed very well indeed. Reed knows guys like Reed very well, and they know him. And frankly, if its simply confined to Reed and his circles and his class, that would be fine.
The trouble is that Reed doesn't know you, or your level or your class or conditions. Its a foreign reality to him, its not quite real. And that's kind of dangerous.
But that's not an issue confined to Reed. Elites are notorious for their tunnel vision, where all they talk to is each other and all they know is what they hear from each other. It's the sort of tunnel vision that got people into Vietnam, and that got the Bush administration into Iraq.
Hell, I shouldn't even talk about Reed like I know anything about him or his life experience. I don't.
All I can assess of Reed is his writing, and there's a viewpoint expressed which I find all too often representative of a certain kind of elite tunnel vision. But that's a judgement as to certain things he's written, not the person himself.
And even if that is the sum of Reed right now... a knowledgable fool, a guy who knows a lot about *his* world but nothing about *the* world then that's still not the end of the story for Reed. It is within him, always, to become larger, to become wiser, to see beyond his limits, to come to know a larger world.
September 27, 2006 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
I know smart people who have never been able to find work equivalent to what they were doing before the Bush jobless recovery. Sometimes destruction is just destruction. The expression "creative destruction" is just a rationalization. All the talk about "thriving on chaos" is just a rationalization for cut-throat methods and the abandonment of social responsibilities.
Whatever merit these ideas might have had when they were first created has degenerated into Bushism. The cliches of centrism are bankrupt -- dead. You can't get back to the center just by fine-tuning the mess that has developed over the last twenty years. The bad guys have too much entrenched power. The system is too corrupt. Unfortunately, Bush is the logical progression in a fairly long-running increase in the level of inequality in American society. The system as we know it logically leads to Bush. (I don't mean that Gore couldn't have won, but Gore would have been swimming upstream. And even if a Democrat can win the presidency in 2008, the system by now is badly broken.)
The first step in the creative destruction of the future should be to destroy the myth of "creative destruction." The next step is to try to figure out an economic system that is better than a gang war.
The reality on the ground is that what we have right now is economic warfare. Anyone who does not understand that does not know what is going on. Some would say that it is naive to think that capitalism has ever been different, but I no longer feel the effectiveness of the social pressure against questioning capitalism.
There has not been a genuine left in this country for a long time. Some would say that the ideas of the true left are also bankrupt. But the ideas of the true left are getting more and more attractive. If someone really wants to head off a return of the true left, they had better come up with some genuinely creative ideas, not just recycled cliches.
I knew Marxists in college, and they were just as bad as Bush and Rove. But they were also right about a lot of things, which is more than I can say about Bush and Rove.
Actually, this is unfinished business from the 1960s. Dr. King concluded, after his march for open housing in Chicago, that the Civil Rights movement was bogging down as it ran up against the interests of the entrenched economic power structure. The issues of the Vietnam/Civil Rights era only seemed more clear-cut than the issues of today because the serious economic questions were suppressed. You cannot understand racism in this country without reference to our economic system, and vice versa. The two things make a continuous loop.
September 28, 2006 6:29 AM | Reply | Permalink