New Hampshire politics is paleo-politics. It isn't driven by ads, it isn't driven by money, it isn't about one industry, it isn't about one ideology. It has a wide streak of the "leave us alone" coalition. It's the state that gave the world the adjective "rock ribbed". But strange days are on New Hampshire. The old man of the mountain, a geological features that had lasted thousands of years, has collapsed. And the Republican dominance of the state, which many took to be a geological rather than political fact, is looking shakier than anyone could have dreamt possible before.

Carol Shea-Porter is taking on Jeb Bradley in New Hampshire-01, and wants to send the former health food store owner back to selling granola.

If you listen to Carol, she talks a mile a minute. There is so much wrong in New Hampshire, and she wants to detail all of it. She's been criss crossing the district for more than two years, she's argued policy with the incumbent, and tried to open his eyes to how "the rest of us" live and work. Jeb's been there for the billionaires, but not for the the people losing their health care coverage, or for the young men and women we have sent, seemingly to stay, in Iraq.

Carol has tapped into that deep vein of American originalism that is still in New Hampshire, no American state has politics whose roots are felt to run back to the founding fathers as much as the granite state. Only Vermont retains as much a devotion to town meeting democracy, and pressing the flesh. Even aspirants for the Presidency must pass the test in person.

She talks about how her travelling all over the state has taught her which issues are important, what problems strike at the hearts of the voters of New Hampshire. She talks about how it isn't that she went to tell them what she was going to go, but how they told her what needs to be done. She heard an earful about the budget busting ways of the Republican Congress. She heard an earful about how people in New Hampshire don't feel we have real national security. She has heard an earful about how people live in fear of every illness, or every round of layoffs.

In this environment, money is less important than mobilization. No state hates representatives who get Washingtonized more than New Hampshire, even recent arrivals know that the first job of a congressman or woman is not to upset the economic apple cart.

This continuity amplifies the changes that have been taking place in the state - as tech centers grow up in Nashua and around Portsmouth, the new people coming in bring a belief in growth and progress as essential to the American dream. New Hampshire may be old school, but its economy is increasingly driven by the new economy. In 2004, New Hampshire was the only state that flipped from Bush.

Thus the conditions are there for two upsets - of Hodes over Bass and of Shea-Porter over Bradley. Adding to this is the performance of Governor Lynch, who has been the kind of can do executive that Democrats should be looking to elect across the country. Bush could not be bothered with Katrina, but when New Hampshire was flooded, Lynch was there.

Bradley's other problem is that he can't tell it straight. He trumpets "fiscal restraint" as his virtue, while he voted for higher spending dozens of times. His campaign has been associated with dirty tricks. He is also a supporter of Bush's plan to end social security and replace it with "private accounts" - and he has even weaseled on this, trying to have it both ways. This rich candidate has lost touch with how most people in New Hampshire - who work hard and believe in pay as you go, not in prey as you blow.

So where stands the matter? What makes anyone think that a district that went lopsidedly for Bradley last time can be made a fighting district?

• Wespac thinks it already is. Carol Shea-Porter was a Clarkie from early on, and the Clark community doesn't forget that.
  
• She was endorsed before the primary by the Portsmouth Herald.
  
• New Hampshire media goddess Arnie Arnesen loves her to death.
  
• Initially Bradley didn't even think she deserved the courtesy of open debate - but has been forced by pressure to agree to two. And in the wild world of the town meeting forum, anything, and everything, can happen.
  
• Carol is already a giant killer - having knocked off the better funded and more experienced Jim Craig in the primary. If 30,000 dollars can beat 200,000 dollars, then 300,000 dollars can beat 2,000,000 dollars. If she can raise that money in time.
  

As importantly, this is building for the future. Instead of spending early money on ads, she has spent time and energy on creating a network of people who will turn the tide of politics in New Hampshire. Not from conservative to liberal, but from autopilot voting to an engaged contesting of all sides of every issue. Carol has already given the Democratic Party a gift that will last long beyond her campaign, and it is fairly clear she isn't going to give in, give up, or go away any time soon.

The advantages of money, media and machine politics didn't put Craig over the top, and it won't save Bradley.

All the money in the world won't save Bradley if people in New Hampshire figure out that sooner or later this Homeland Secruity Behemoth that he has been feeding is going to get around to registering and restricting guns one of these days. All the media in the world won't help him explain to people why they should be hounded to death by bill collectors if they lose their health insurance. All the endorsements in the world won't slow voters down who've decided that the "R" after Bradley stands for "Rich" and that he knows more about what is happening on New Hamsphire Avenue in DC, than on Main Street in the towns and small cities that make up New Hampshire's first congressional district.

The question now is whether the little campaign that could can make lightning strike nationally, the way it has created a rolling thunder of minuteman politics to win the primary.

The answer to that question, lies only with the candidate and her campaign. Jeb knows this - that's why he's almost invisible and hiding behind his bill boards and soft focus children and puppy ads. He knows that if lightning might strike, best to hide someplace.