Thailand's military has launched a coup attempt - the nation has been under a caretaker government, and faces uncertainties. It is not the first time that the military has intervened in civilian government - a bloodless coup in 1932 toppled the monarchy, and in 1947 toppled the civilian government, and then in 1952 another coup revoked the constitution and appointed half of the members of parliament. In 1971 the premier dissolved parliament and suspended the constitution. There have been others since.

Last year fears of a coup spread through Thailand and on August 29th, an assassination attempt was felt to be the prelude to a coup.

Reports at present indicate that the coup is taking hold, with roadblocks being set up around Bangkok, and army officers siezing power in the name of King Bhumibol Adulyadej.

The conflict is between the rural populism, and corruption, of the government, and the elites in Bangkok that want a crackdown on the corruption associated with the current government. The military has publicly fueded with the Prime Minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, over both foreign affairs and domestic arrangements.

The coup comes on the back of snap elections in April which Thaskin won handily after an opposition boycott and charges of corruption; Thailand's elections have a long history of vote buying with Thai Rak Thai having had victories thrown out for election irregularlities in the past. Opposition groups saying they would only rejoin the process if Thaskin stepped down. Earlier they had rejected an offer to be included in Thaskin's government, saying that only constitutional and election reform was acceptable. Thaskin's opponents organized marches to pressure him to resign, while Thaskin supporters bombed an opposition head quarters.

After the judiciary invalidated the elections, Thaskin had an electoral comission loyal to him schedule new elections, since he was already the head of Thailand's first elected single party government, there was no pressure on him to concede much ground. The new elections, scheduled for October 15th, were expected to go to Thaskin's party, in no small part because the opposition was barely given a chance to organize. With this the frustrations of the country's military and media elites finally boiled over at the tycoon politician. The judiciary removed the election commissioners loyal to Thaskin and declared that elections should be delayed to give the opposition a chance to get organized.

Only a few days ago Thaskin was telling people that there would be no coup, but also expressed displeasure at the slow pace of tracking down those responsible for the bombing.

Everyone loves snap judgements that tell us who to support, however, both sides have their points. On one hand, Thaskin is the duly elected leader of the country, and will probably win elections. On the other hand, Thaskin's time in power has been very profitable for his family, and made him a billionaire in a poor country.

Both the opposition Democrat Party and Thaskin's Thai Rak Thai party are in favor of trade liberalization to bring in more industrial base to Thailand from countries with higher wages bases. The major parties all agree on the continuation of universal health coverage and education subsidies, thought differ on the implementation. The major dispute then, is over the finances of the Prime Minister himself.

The signals from the US are that matters are going to be handled very gingerly. Instead of "the political process", UN ambassdor Bolton stated that the crisis needed to be settled within the "Constitutional process". Since one of the opposition's key demands is for a new constitution that limits executive power, these are carefully chosen words meant to indicate that the United States might not be upset if Thaskin were forced from power.

The main opposition party is the Democrat Party, one of a number of Asian Parties which grew up in opposition to authoritarian and one party government in Asia, including the Democratic Progressive Party of Taiwan. Their own history in power included being overthrown by military coups, just as Thaskin seems in danger now of falling from power. It has been torn by internal fighting between its Bangkok and southern wings, with southern politicians now holding an edge in leadership and representation. The Democrat Party believes that were Thaskin not to be there to hold his own party together, that it would splinter back into the factions that make it up, many of them hostile to each other.

Thailand has a history of coup, followed by military appointed Prime Minister, followed by turbulence that led to constitutional reform and a new elected government, only to face another coup or election defeat. If this pattern holds, the military will either dictate changes, or face street demonstrations until changes are made in the electoral system. This, however, does not deal with the controversy of Thaskin himself. Even if he steps aside as PM, he has vowed to remain the head of the TRT party, and would be expected to be immune from investigation and prosecution.

Thaskin's time in power has moved Thailand's politics to the left on social spending, even as he has supported American foreign policy and trade liberalization. However, it has also introduced a persistent element of instability, as questions surrounding his personal fortune, made in telecommunications and augmented by tax free sales of assets, have been used by opposition parties to repeatedly bring down his government.

Today's coup then, needs to be seen in the light of a very personal struggle between Thaskin and the Bangkok power centers, as well as a struggle between the very poor north, and the less poor south.