When President Bush and Senator Voinovich joined up little more than a month ago to put the Bolton nomination back on the Senate calendar, White House political strategists suggested that getting Bolton confirmed would be a walk in the park. Here’s some good news: those same WH strategists and Republican vote-counters are now fighting an uphill battle to get Cheney’s man approval in the Senate.

Repeat: the White House and Republican Senate leadership is now fighting an uphill battle to get John Bolton confirmed. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee vote is up in the air, and as of right now, Democrats have the votes to prolong debate and block Bolton’s confirmation.

For the Committee vote on Thursday, Democrats are united against the nomination, which means Linc Chafee has the power to deny any Committee action on Bolton.

Chafee has a couple of important reasons to oppose Bolton. First, according to his staff, Chafee can’t stand him. Second, also according to Chafee’s staff, the calls coming into his office from his constituents have been overwhelmingly opposed to Bolton. Chafee may vote for Bolton anyway to move to the right in his extremely tight primary race, but the only vote consistent with his conscience and with the views of Rhode Islanders is a vote against Bolton.

Yet, even if the Senate Foreign Relations Committee reports the Bolton nomination to the floor, its prospects there are bleak. Republicans are preparing to go public and say they have the votes on Bolton – a tactic that has worked to scare Dems into conceding defeat before the battle has fought in the past – but they said the same thing last year on the Bolton cloture votes and they were wrong. I’m betting they haven’t even made a real whip list.

With some colleagues, I have completed a real whip list, and the Republican leadership and the White House are wrong again this year. Based on conversations with individual Senators and their aides, I can say confidently that they don’t have the votes.

Republicans need 60 Senators to win a cloture motion and end debate. Without tipping my hand completely, I can say that the Republican leadership has 53 votes it can count on, and another 4 who are leaning in its direction but uncertain. On a sunny day, that makes 57. Even if they capture the 2 truly undecided votes, that still leaves them a vote short of the 60 they need. It’s simply not going to happen.

Democrats need to wake up and realize they have the votes to defeat the Bolton nomination. They’ve been lulled to sleep by the August recess and psyched out by the Republicans' phony show of confidence in Bolton's confirmation chances.

This is a chance to stop an ineffective, radical Ambassador who represents a broken foreign policy and a broken intelligence system. Now, they need to show some spine and call the Republicans’ bluff.