And This War Was For . . . What?
The conclusion of Sabrina Tavernise's coverage of the Lebanese Army's deployment to southern Lebanon:
For Hezbollah, the army, seen as a largely impotent force, provides a comfortable and convenient cover for their work in southern Lebanon. One of the young men, in tinted sunglasses, said he supported the army’s deployment.So this war . . . all the Israelis killed . . . the even greater number of Arabs killed . . . Israel achieved, what, exactly? Condoleezza Rice delayed the implementation of a cease-fire agreement for weeks in order to do . . . what? I feel like the many people who were so busy slamming skeptics of Israel's policy really have a duty to address this. What went wrong? Was this really such a hot policy in retrospect? Were all of us saying this was leading to pointless bloodshed and not much else really just driven by our deep-seated Jew-hating?
“It’s really good, let them come,” he said, untangling the rope. “We’re all Lebanese, it’s not a problem.”
Advertisement



Comments (108)
The war was to show the Arabs--who only understand force, you know--that Israel was not to be messed with; that anybody who dared start something with them would be destroyed.
Or to get an increased UNIFIL presence in Southern Lebanon. I'm not sure what the latest talking points are.
August 17, 2006 9:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Don't hold your breath waiting for the mea culpas. The folks who need to make them are not very good at admitting when they are wrong. Indeed, many of them are too busy spinning this as a victory for Israel and the US - or if they see it as a defeat - will be certain to tell us why the UN/France/Ned Lamont are to blame ...
August 17, 2006 9:49 AM | Reply | Permalink
Matt's implied criticism of Israel's military activities of the past month is overly broad.
Hizbullah had, over the past six years, established a military presence along Israel's northern border. At some point the strength of that presence had to be tested. And testing it offered an ancillary benefit -- its weakening.
Various tactics of the IDF -- the bombing of "Lebanese" infrastructure and of Shia controlled South Beirut, for example -- are up for criticism. But the claim that Israel's future military planning, a prime reason for going to "war" against one's enemies, obtained no benefit is naive.
August 17, 2006 10:10 AM | Reply | Permalink
Matt, you have it completely backwards. The real question is: when will proponents of a cease fire admit they were dead wrong? When Hezbollah started this conflict, the vaunted international community told Israel that the only way to disarm Hezbollah was to work with the Lebanese army. And once the fighting started, Israel was chided into standing down, saying the only way to achieve a lasting peace was to let the Lebanese army impose the peace. Now, the ugly truth is exposed: the Lebanese government has no intention whatsoever of disarming Hezbollah. Israel's original contention - that only she had the willingness to disarm Hezbollah - has been proven 100% correct. If Lebanon ignores the UN security council resolution and does nothing to secure its southern border, they are complicit in Hezbollah's actions. Israel has been vindicated, and Kofi Annan should apologize.
August 17, 2006 10:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
It's good to know that you are an ends justifies the means kind of guy Matt. I honestly expected more from you than that. I gather what you are saying is that if the war had turned out better perhaps by killing Nasrallah, than you would have found all of the civilian casualties in Lebanon to have been worth it after all.
It's sad to find that your metrics are still so vaguely defined. In precisely what manner has the war failed, and in what manner has it succeeded. Arguably, according to a Haaretz reporter I heard yesterday, while the army failed to kill Nasrallah, they did in fact kill about 30% of Hezbollah fighters and did destroy much of their infrastructure. That's not as good as Israel may have hoped for, but it does potentially make northern Israel safer for awhile, until Hezbollah is allowed to rearm itself with Iranian and Syrian funds.
Arguably, Israel in fact made its point, that with six years of neglect from the UN, Hezbollah now does threaten Israel's very existence.
Anyway, good to know that if in fact the Iraq war ends better, say in a year, or five, or the conservatards new goal of 30 years, that you will be there to say what a douchebag you were this entire time for opposing the Iraq war just because a nation was led into it through lies.
I ain't much of a philosopher, but as I said, good to know you are an ends justifies the means kind of d00d. That philosophy I understand. I don't agree with it, but I understand it.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 17, 2006 10:47 AM | Reply | Permalink
OK what benefits did Israel/IDF get from this war? All I see is a politically strengthened Hezbollah in Lebanon. Hezbollah is still armed and can fire rockets again in the future. And the 2 Israeli soldiers taken captive have still not been returned. And Israel/IDF was not able to achieve it's stated goal of the "destruction of Hezbollah". What would you say the benefits are that Israel will realize in the "future"?
August 17, 2006 11:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I posted this link on another threat, but its worth doing it again. A certain op-ed writer took aim at his favorite enemies:
Opening salvo:
Next:
Then he cuts through Bushco's complete GWOT nonsense, concluding:
And finishes with this flourish:
The name of this liberal Osama-hugging, anti-Semitic, America-hating, Al-Qaeda type?
George Will.
August 17, 2006 11:05 AM | Reply | Permalink
The fighting abilities of its enemy. Enemy tactics. Enemy fortification construction techniques. Requirements of Merkava tank protection. Size of "kill boxes." Effectiveness of tactical air. Fighting abilities of this generation of "sabras." Et cetera. Et cetera.
You are underestimating the value for future planning of the tactical information Israel obtained of both its and its enemy's military capabilities.
August 17, 2006 11:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
First, the assumption that this war was one Israel fought "by choice" is flawed. Simply accepting the Hezbollah incursion into Israel and the destructive "diversionary" missle attack and swapping terrorists for the soldiers was never a realistic option. Israel had the right and the obligation to respond to Hezbollah's unprovoked aggression across the international recognized border.
The right question, therefore, is not what was the war far, but yoru second question, namely what was the point of the ceasefire delay given that the diplomatic solution reached (the redeployment of the Lebanese army and a bulking of the UNIFIL forces, but no serious disarmament of Hezbollah) could have been obtained weeks ago.
A partial answer is that Israel did use the extra time to inflict serious damage to Hezbollah. The problem is that it is impossible to determine exactly how much damage was inflicted given the conflicting reports of Hezbollah casulties. The greater the damage, the less pointless the cease-fire delay.
But the more complete answer is simply that the Israeli military and political leadership appears to have screwed up. Had Israel launched an extensive ground offensive weeks earlier rather than wasting energy on "strategic" bombing of South Beirut, the result may have been a far more decisive military setback for Hezbollah. If Olmert truly believed that such an operation was too risky, he should have cashed in his diplomatic chips earlier duirng the window where the Sunni Arab regimes were tacitly supporting Israel's actions and spared civilian casulties on both sides.
It was clearly in America's strategic interests for Iran's proxy in Lebanon to crushed. Having Hezbollah on the border, capable of launching rockets in Northern Israel whenever it is convenient for Iran is counterproductive to almost any U.S. foreign policy aims in the region, whether it be preventing Iran's development of nuclear weapons or advancing an Israeli-Palestinian settlement.
It also in America's interest for Sinora's government not be fall as well, which is why we ultimately put heavy pressure on Israel to accept the ceasefire. (Although it is unclear whether delaying the cease-fire an additional month would have significantly damaged the Sinora's government to any greater extent if Israel had ceased strategic bombing attacks.) But the delay of the ceasefire and its ultimate impostiion both had a rational basis.
August 17, 2006 11:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Fair points. I agree the Israelis were able to gauge how effective/ineffective their tactics and weapons were against Hezbollah. And they did a get peek at Hezbollah's tactics. But the downsides (which I listed in my original post) still outweigh those few benefits. And how about the benefits for the other side? They proved that Israel can be faced and it is possible to live and tell about it. I am honestly looking for the overall upside for Israel in this war and I am really struggling to see that upside...
August 17, 2006 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
The question -- off topic though it may be -- is whether DirtyMac is a troll or a jerk. Clearly, he's a coward.
August 17, 2006 11:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen,
William Lind begs to differ:
http://www.d-n-i.net/lind/lind_8_17_06.htm
He is a conservative. The site is dedicated to finding the most effective way to spend our defense dollars in a post cold-war world. It is staffed by military theorists and ex-military people.
Excerpt:
With today’s cease-fire in Lebanon, the second Hezbollah-Israeli War is temporarily in remission. So far, Israel has been beaten.
The magnitude of the defeat is considerable. Israel appears to have lost at every level—strategic, operational and tactical. Nothing she tried worked. Air power failed, as it always does against an enemy who doesn’t have to maneuver operationally, or even move tactically for the most part. The attempts to blockade Lebanon and thus cut off Hezbollah’s resupply failed; her caches proved ample. Most seriously, the ground assault into Lebanon failed. Israel took little ground and paid heavily in casualties for that. More, she cannot hold what she has taken; if she is not forced to withdraw by diplomacy, Hezbollah will push her out, as it did once before. The alternative is a bleeding ulcer that never heals.
But these failures only begin to measure the magnitude of Israel’s defeat. While Hezbollah’s leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, is now an Islamic hero, Olmert has become a boiled brisket in the piranha pool that is Israeli politics.
Sorry ... I think there is very little lemonade to be made from these lemons.
August 17, 2006 11:40 AM | Reply | Permalink
"Jew-Hating"???? IMO, this is but one subchapter in at least a decade old, neo-con "gun barrel diplomacy" driven, christian fundamentalist influenced plot that was designed to mesh (and exploit...)with Likud's "direction":
...Senator Chafee?
CHAFEE: Thank you, Mr. Chairman.
Welcome, Ambassador.
As you said, we have a crisis and tragedy unfolding in the Middle East. And without a doubt, this is an extremely important area in the world: energy-rich, all the religious areas that are important.
And in addressing that, you said that, "We are actively engaged in New York in identifying lasting solutions to bring about a permanent peace in the Middle East. To do so, however, requires that we have a shared understanding of the problem. The United States has a firm view that the root cause of the problem is terrorism, and this terrorism is solely and directly responsible for the situation we find ourselves in today."
And you're a brilliant man. That statement doesn't make any sense. Terrorism is a device. There's got to be something deeper for the root case. Can you go a little deeper?
Now, I think the real root cause is the absence of a fundamental basis for peace in the region. And I think that striving to get to that point is the objective of our diplomacy now; not to simply acquiesce and a return to the status quo ante, but to see if there's not a way to turn the hostilities that are now going into shifting the basis on which we really deal in the region.
And that's why we have resisted calls for an immediate cease- fire, which has the risk of simply returning to the status quo ante.
Nobody is under any illusions about the complexity of the problem......
When you consider the following "background", it seems to explain how decisions that the Bush admin. made in 2001, to "shift toward Israel" along with the opinions of Bolton, Feith, and Rumsfeld that Israel should retain "biblical lands" and land Israel occupied because it "won the war", have resulted in the current lack of U.S. influence....or will.....to broker a cease fire:
1. Condoleezza Rice is leaving for the Middle East. Is her trip likely to lead to any favorable diplomatic outcome?
I don't think so. At least not anytime soon..........
I believe her activities have been tailored to give the impression of action while not designed to make any real progress toward the urgent ceasefire that should be everyone's highest priority.
Consider that the new Bush admin., more than nine months before 9/11, according to Paul O'Neill and others present at the first Bush national security meeting, abandoned pursuit of a diplomatic solution to the Arab/Israeli conflict, and shifted to a focus on toppling Saddam and an Israel bias:
GUEST: RON SUSKIND, AUTHOR
RE: "THE PRICE OF LOYALTY"
TAPED: THURSDAY, JANUARY 22, 2004
BROADCAST: WEEKEND OF JANUARY 24-25, 2004
MR. MCLAUGHLIN: The price of loyalty. In an extraordinary literary collaboration, former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill shared his memories -- plus 19,000 pages of official documents -- with a Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter. The resulting book is a first x-ray of the inside of the Bush White House.....
....MR. SUSKIND: It was the first meeting of the National Security Council. The president presided, talked about how the National Security Council works,......
......MR. SUSKIND: And Condoleezza Rice. The president described this is the way it works. He threw it to Condi, said Condi will be managing this process.
And then he set policy right at the start of the administration. He said first off, we're going to pull out of the Arab-Israeli conflict. There's nothing we can do to help those people. He talked about that for a while. Colin Powell expressed immediately reservations, saying if we do this -- this is 30 years of U.S. policy. We have been fully engaged. If we do this, we will unleash Sharon and it will tear the fabric of the Mideast. And the president said at some time, a show of force can be really clarifying. That's not a direct quote, but almost.......
......MR. MCLAUGHLIN: He said Clinton overreached and it all fell apart.
MR. SUSKIND: About the Mideast.....
.....MR. SUSKIND: Well, it sounded to people in the meeting as though it was, you know, preordained and scripted, meaning that this meeting was going to be about Iraq. Not everyone knew that prior to the meeting, based on the briefing documents that were available. But what became clear immediately at that point is it would be essentially a presentation on Iraq and what to do....
President Bush echoed the [pro-Israel] view: 'We're going to correct the imbalances of the previous administration on the Mideast conflict. We're going to tilt back toward Israel." Bush continued, 'If the two sides don't want peace, there is no way we can force them.' Colin Powell said, 'a pullback by the US would unleash Sharon and the Israeli army.' ; Bush added, 'Sometimes a show of strength by one side can really clarify things
Source: The Price of Loyalty, by Ron Suskind, p. 71-72 Jan 13, 2004
Consider that this article documents the Bush appointments to the DOD and State Dept. of several folks, including Perle, Feith and Bolton, who advocated, back in 1996, removing Saddam, and supporting the retention by Israel, of the "biblical lands", and Rumsfeld's officially distributed opinion that Israel won the "so called occupied" territory, in war.....a seemingly counterproductive opinion, compared to longstanding U.S., M.E. policy.
....The Bush administration's alignment with Sharon delights many of its strongest supporters, especially evangelical Christians, and a large part of organized American Jewry, according to leaders in both groups, who argue that Palestinian terrorism pushed Bush to his new stance. But it has led to a freeze on diplomacy in the region that is criticized by Arab countries and their allies, and by many past and current officials who have participated in the long-running, never-conclusive Middle East "peace process.".....
..........One of Abrams's mentors, Richard Perle, chairman of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, led a study group that proposed to Binyamin Netanyahu, a Likud prime minister of Israel from 1996 to 1999, that he abandon the Oslo peace accords negotiated in 1993 and reject the basis for them -- the idea of trading "land for peace.
" Israel should insist on Arab recognition of its claim to the biblical land of Israel, the 1996 report suggested, and should "focus on removing Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq."
Besides Perle, the study group included David Wurmser, now a special assistant to Undersecretary of State John R. Bolton, and Douglas J. Feith, now undersecretary of defense for policy. Feith has written prolifically on Israeli-Arab issues for years, arguing that Israel has as legitimate a claim to the West Bank territories seized after the Six Day War as it has to the land that was part of the U.N.-mandated Israel created in 1948. Perle, Feith and Abrams all declined to be interviewed for this article.
Rumsfeld echoed the Perle group's analysis in a little-noted comment to Pentagon employees last August about "the so-called occupied territories." Rumsfeld said: "There was a war [in 1967], Israel urged neighboring countries not to get involved . . . they all jumped in, and they lost a lot of real estate to Israel because Israel prevailed in that conflict. In the intervening period, they've made some settlements in some parts of the so-called occupied area, which was the result of a war, which they won."............
Matt, it seems that the Bush M.E. policy has much more to do with a neo-con, christian right, influenced goal to "shift toward Israel", "take out Saddam", and inflict as much pain, militarily, on anyone who stand in opposition to these goals, on the ground in the M.E.
These policy goals were put on paper, by the people in the Bush admin.,who are now carrying them out, as far back as in 1996. There is reliable evidence from former U.S. treasury sec'ty Paul O'Neill, and from other attendees to the first., Jan. 30, 2001 Nat'l Security Council meeting of the new Bush admin., to support the notion that abandoning of the Israel/M.E. peace policy goals of all post 1952, U.S. presidents, was announced as the new policy, along with a "shift toward Israel", and Bush pronouncing that "Sometimes a show of strength by one side can really clarify things", and then the meeting shifted to Iraq policy, which has dominated the agenda, ever since.
9/11 was still over nine months away, and there was and is, nothing happening that would contradict the present results of a pre-9/11 policy shift that replaced diplomacy with the use of U.S., and now IDF, military force.
Democratic elections have been held in Lebanon, in Iraq, and in the Palestinian state, and the problem is that the U.S. and Israel do not approve or accept the will of the voters who live in those "newly democratic" states.
There seems to be no acceptance by the U.S. or Israel, of the possibility that the voters in all three jurisdictions were influenced to vote for candidates that offered a militant opposition to the armed forces of both the U.S. and Israel.
It seems that the policy of the new, closer U.S./Israeli alliance is to try to kill the entire armed opposition. It isn't working out too well in Iraq, and it won't work in Gaza or in Lebanon, either.
Matt if you were an Arab, especially a male in young/middle adulthood, living in Iraq, Gaza or in Lebanon, how would you have reacted to the elections of Mr. Sharon and Mr. Bush and the policies that they pursued together? How would you react if you were living in one of those places, now? Would it make a difference if you were a sunni muslim, experiencing the effect of the rise of shia influence, unleashed as a result of the U.S. invasion of Iraq?
Since the policy pre-dates 9/11, it follows that the Bush mantra that "9/11 changed everything".....is bullsh*t propaganda.....
Israeli Jews are no more "victims", than Americans are, as a consequence in both countries, of too many voters duped or somehow persuaded to vote for "leaders" who act against the best interests of almost everyone!
August 17, 2006 11:45 AM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't disagree with you that Hizbullah may have learned some things about the IDF that the latter wishes it hadn't. And making Dan Halutz the face of Israel was not exactly a public relations triumph.
But my argument with Matt's implications was only that the idea that Israel benefited not at all was going too far. One never knows until the next battle whether the earlier loss (lack of complete success?) had an upside -- see Kasserine Pass and Market Garden, for example.
August 17, 2006 11:52 AM | Reply | Permalink
Matt,
Obviously the intent by Israel was to stop Iran's power-grab by destroying Hezbollah.
Just because the mission was not successful does not mean it had no point. Come on, man. Perfection is rare.
August 17, 2006 12:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'd say Israel's loss of face in this campaign outweighs the benefit of any intelligence they might've gained.
August 17, 2006 12:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Comment rating wars are really dull boys and girls.
Mod spam down, way down. After that, just don't mod things you don't agree with up.
But modding down opinions you don't like is juvenile and is the reason that we are in the mess we are in today.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 17, 2006 12:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
>> Perfection is rare.
Wrong.
The Bush-Olmert axis of clusterfuck batshit insanity is perfection incarnate.
August 17, 2006 12:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
Kasserine Pass and Market Garden? Those battles/operations were part of a larger long term conventional war Ellen. Is your view that the only way to get a satisfactory (from Israel's/the US's POV) outcome to this is by further long term military action? I don't think Hezbollah can be cleared out by conventional military action unless that action is massive resulting in thousands of Lebanese civilian casualties. And I don't think the Israeli military is well suited for long term campaigns.
August 17, 2006 12:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
The presence of the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL in southern Lebanon may turn out to hinder Israel more than Hezbollah. Hezbollah can use the UNIFIL and the Lebanese Army as the new human shields. Israel does not want the French news reports to describe the killing of French soldiers by Israeli counter-strikes. The more different countries in UNIFIL the more governments that can become hostile to Israel. Likewise, incidental strikes against the Lebanese Army by Israel may force it into a military coalition with Hezbollah to push back the Israeli military.
Hezbollah can re-arm more quickly than Israel can up-armor it's tanks and build new missile defenses. The Lebanese Army is virtually under Hezbollah command as it is. UNIFIL will probably never get to the 15,000 imaginary figure, neither will the Lebanese Army in southern Lebanon.
The only advantage Israel has is that it can improve the Quality of it's weapons more quickly than Hezbollah can, as the US is still a better armorer than Iran.
The US has exposed the Hezbollah connection to Iran more clearly, and the nature of the Iranian nuclear threat (whenever that appears) is more obviously horrible. All the opponents to Iran's nuclear development are more adamant than ever. While Iran is crowing now, I think that in the long run this Israeli bungling will turn out to be a disadvantage to Iran.
To answer MY's question, the purpose of the war was to reduce or eliminate the Hezbollah threat, to get the 2 kidnapped soldiers back, and to strengthen the Lebanese government along with friendly forces within Lebanon. It would have been fine if it had worked. The implication by MY that there was no good purpose to be served is foolish. The dream of a peaceful Lebanon on the northern border if Israel without Syrian or Iranian client armies is a wonderful dream of peace that all progressives must support. If the war had been managed better it could have happened.
Maybe Hezbollah has been reduced for some time. But Olmert has bungled badly. He was the Jerusalem mayor and before that a lawyer, and his lack of military and strategic knowledge has cost Israel dearly.
August 17, 2006 12:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Sorry Jerry, Your comment got a 1 because it put words in Matt's mouth and then drew a contrary conclusion based upon those words. That's called a strawman argument and is "not productive".
You said:
"I gather what you are saying is that if the war had turned out better perhaps by killing Nasrallah, than you would have found all of the civilian casualties in Lebanon to have been worth it after all."
Where did Matt say that? He didn't. You did.
But based upon that you decide Matt is an "ends justify the means guy"?
The point of the karma system is to elevate discussion. I did not mark you a troll which leads to banning - I simply marked that comment unproductive.
Even I make unproductive comments. I suspect this is one of them.
August 17, 2006 12:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
Libertine,
So am I. But I don't really see the victory Hizbollah claims either. Nor can I gather any confidence in the leadership of the international community. I don't see how anyone in the foreign ministries of Europe, the delegations of the UN Security Council and the office of the Secretary General, the Arab League, or the summiteers of the G8 can fool themselves or the rest of us into thinking that this ceasefire can mean anything without even dealing with anything that led to the firing to begin with.
August 17, 2006 12:55 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well considering the hash the US has made of dealing with what led to the firing to begin with I'm willing to give the Europeans a chance. They surely cannot make things WORSE than we have these last 3 years.
(Uh, to clarify I mean degrade things as much in the next 3 years as we did in the last, I'm well aware things can get worse by adding any of their failiures to ours.)
August 17, 2006 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
The border between Syria and Lebanon is 375 km long. This is about 233 miles. The Israelis have a motive to patrol this border to prevent weapons smuggling but won't be on the ground there. Sea and air transport to Lebanon will resume soon anyway.
Even if the new UNIFIL is larger than the old UNIFIL, it's political framework will limit it's effectiveness. This is true also for the Lebanese Army.
August 17, 2006 1:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Outdenting it a bit, Libertine, but still with you.
Consider the Planning Staff's problem. The IDF has been on constabulary duty for the past six and maybe, twenty years. In Gaza and the West Bank it has been able to rely on informants. And over that period of time several things have happened:
1) An uninfiltrated guerilla organization of unknown capabilities has positioned itself on its border, and as importantly
2) The nation -- and especially, its 18-35 year olds with their "soft hands" -- have joined the global economy, and
3) The IDF has "professionalized" turning to Russian immigrants rather than to Reservists (citizen-soldiers) to man it.
How else but by way of war can the planners assure themselves that the IDF can defend the nation?
August 17, 2006 1:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nope. Too late for that. If Israel had offered to work with the Lebanese in the first place instead of bombing so many non-Hezbollah targets, it would make sense to say what you did, but it's too late now. So the people you bombed don't stick out their necks to protect you? What a surprise. Doesn't prove a thing now.
August 17, 2006 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Um, if someone points out that both the ends and the means were absolute disasters (and they were), how does that make them an ends-justifies-the-means kind of guy?
August 17, 2006 1:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Do you think Hezbollah will be firing missiles at Israel in the near future? I believe that while Israeli citizens are prepared to fight on and are very angry at the IDF they will not endure being targeted by Hezbollah as they were over the course of the last two years. This is particular good for Arab Israelis who suffered the bulk of the Israeli deaths.
More to the point and this is not directed at your Libertine or at Matt but the hyprocrisy on the this discussion is rich. The whining and the bleating about the bombing of power plants, bridges and gas stations has been non-stop at TPMCafe. Even though they were the means to cut Hezbollah from fuel and rearmament. It was also the way to keep the katyusha launchers from running.
Then when all of Israels hoped for goals, set by who is not clear, are not achieved those who don't like Israel anyway say aha see they could not wipeout Hezbollah. Israel could have blown Lebanon off the map. Reading Haaretz, I would not want to be the Lebanese if Hezbollah does not maintain the cease fire.
Matt before you take a bow for being prophetic I would give the situation a bit of time to work out. Also where were your prophetic powers when Hezbollah was firing missiles at Israel over the years?
Daniel A. Greenbaum
August 17, 2006 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
In 2001, the Clinton policies seemed to have led to the Intifada. It was not at all clear that outside US "Assistance" was actually helpful. A case can be made that 50 years of meddling by outside powers (the US, UN, the Arab States) has preserved the Arab-Israeli conflict and prevented a solution rather than provided one. With nothing obviously beneficial, a policy of watching and waiting seemed the essence of reason and wisdom. If the "Disengagement" had brought peace then perhaps the watching and waiting would now be praised.
August 17, 2006 1:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I can't say I follow your line of thought, MNPundit, unless we see different motivations for the recent flareup. From where I sit, Lebanon essentially enabled, allowed, or otherwise caused Hizbollah to drag Israel back to Beirut. What could the US have done to head off this circumstance without flying in the face of all existing reasonable suspicions?
August 17, 2006 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Consumatopia,
How would that even happen when Lebanon doesn't recognize Israel? There's not much room there for diplomatic cooperation, let alone an alliance.
August 17, 2006 1:32 PM | Reply | Permalink
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 17, 2006 1:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
And I do see the points you are making Ellen, outdenting noted, I hate posting on the right margin...lol.
But the bottom line is why would the IDF back off from Hezbollah now? By backing off the attack now the IDF allowed Hezbollah to remain a viable military force and it allows them to reconstitute their forces. I can't figure out how this latest war conducted by the IDF makes Israeli's more confident in the IDF being able to defend them...
August 17, 2006 1:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unfortunately, much of the antitank doctrine used by Hezbollah has been described, in detail, in reports of Chechen tactics going back several years.
Effectiveness of tactical air? This was a complete unknown since the same ordnance, electronics, and variants of the same aircraft have been operating, in similar conditions, since 1991 and more recently 2003?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 17, 2006 1:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
Without US assistance there might very well have been peace in the ME because the Jews would have been driven to the sea. Israel had no good option, and, owing to the past history of final solutions, over-reacted. That reaction has led to an apparent failure, but that could be illusion. A message was sent that they will react with force, and they now realize that building a walled country won't stop missiles.
I've always believed that Egypt agree to peace because Israel threatened to bomb the Aswan Dam--and I expect similar threats will be sent to Syria. After this performance, Damascus must realize that the threat is not hollow. They're gonna get it next because it is much easier to defeat a state than to eliminate a terrorist organization.
Is this a good situation? No, but it was inevitable. Either shit or a dove will be flying soon. Stay tuned, this story never gets boring, unfortunately.
August 17, 2006 1:46 PM | Reply | Permalink
Warren, below, thinks the IDF's failure can be laid at Olmert's door, and he may be right -- that Israel's political leadership simply hadn't prepared the public for a costly ground war and felt compelled to back off when the casualty figures started coming in.
I'm quite interested in the question of whether Israel, as a society, has grown too "soft" to continue to rely on its "offensive-defensive" military strategy. That it has -- that it is no longer Sparta-on-the-Med -- may be the lesson of this latest dust up.
August 17, 2006 1:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Lebanese government has no intention whatsoever of disarming Hezbollah. Israel's original contention - that only she had the willingness to disarm Hezbollah - has been proven 100% correct.
the lebanese government has not had the ability to disarm hezbollah. what little ability they had before is now even more diminished.
and while israel might have a 'willingness' to disarm hezbollah (when was that willingness ever in question?), they have shown (100%) that they too lack the ability to do so.
i fail to see how any of that puts a point in israel's column.
August 17, 2006 1:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matt wants people in hindsight to rethink their opinions based on their end goal not being reached. Presumably then, if their goals had been reached everything would have been okay, and Matt's opinions would have been called into question.
That is "ends justifies the means" thinking.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 17, 2006 1:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Lebanon couldn't or wouldn't disarm Hezbollah, it shouldn't have promised that it would. That's the reason the cease fire has failed.
August 17, 2006 1:58 PM | Reply | Permalink
Unlike Bush's Iraq invasion, which had nothing to do with fighting terrorism or spreading Democracy, Olmert's Lebanese war had something to do with security.
Israel has nothing to worry about as long as it has the U.S. paying its territorial rent and 'utilities.'
The Hezbollah/Israeli war was more of the U.S. saying, "We put you up for nothing. If you think your neighbor is playing his music too loud at night it's your responsibility to ask him to turn it down. But we support you."
August 17, 2006 2:39 PM | Reply | Permalink
Talking points:
1) Western Civilization is going to need some more generals in the coming years to fight Islamofascists. The war is a'comin'! All my goy friends will have the chance to relive the Crusades of Yore when the Caliphate comes 'round asking for donations. Good luck. Don't blame the Jews for trying to warn everybody. Pity everybody's listening to the French.
2) Party-time in So. Lebanon for Hezb'Allah and the Lebanese Army!! Not much more going to happen there. Aside from more rocket attacks, though things have been (thankfully and) strangely quiet the past few days. Did they fix the runway at Beirut Int'l? I haven't checked the schedule for BA, but they've had their hands full these days, haven't they?
3) Mazel-tov to President Bush on the appointment of Jay Hein to the post of Director of the Office of Faith Based Initiatives. Done while the Jews were looking hard at Israel and the war. Just goes to show you can't always base your faith on initiative. So we Jews have to pick: do we like Bush because he "supported" Israel during the recent war -- or do we hate him for what he is doing to the fabric of this country? I'm confused. Help!
4) Oh, Floyd Landis' father in law killed himself. My guess is that he was the one who slipped Floyd the extra epitestosterone. I DID wonder how he came back from the pits to win that 18th stage in the Tour de France. Doped? Naw, not Floyd! C'mon!
That's all I can think about right now. Wake me when it's over.
IRSSLEX
August 17, 2006 2:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Again good points. I too place much of the blame on Olmert...or whoever said that the goal of the war was the "destruction of Hezbollah". Defense by offense has worked well for the Israelis up to this point but it seems that the battles they will be fighting won't be traditional battles with tanks against tanks. The IDF are very good at conventional warfare but just like the US in Iraq they have problems with an enemy which won't confront them in a traditional military sense. Are they too soft or just not able to adapt to the new tactics of their enemies?
August 17, 2006 3:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look at the Special Night Squads, in the late thirties. They out-enemied their enemies.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 17, 2006 3:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
My whining and bleating was reserved for bombing Lebanese children and driving 3/4 of a million Lebanese from their homes.
As to Israel blowing Lebanon off the map, all that kind of (existential)threat does is totally legitimize Iran's quest for nuclear weapons.
August 17, 2006 3:54 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't a bit early to be declaring definitive conclusions on the war? The ceasefire is a couple of days old and already people are jumping to conclusions, naturally siding with the most Israel-is-wrong interpretation possible.
Here are a couple of things to keep in mind:
None of this is to say that one should view Israel's actions uncritically. Clearly, from both a strategic and tactical standpoint, they left a lot to be desired. Given what they did not accomplish, it's certainly hard to defend the civilian casualties. I just object to the notion that the whole thing was pointless.
August 17, 2006 4:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
Considering the performance of the Lebanese Army when the country was under attack, I think "feckless and weak" is probably the way to go.
August 17, 2006 4:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
Maybe I'm extremely dense, but I have read this "sentence" 20 times and I can't figure it out. What is the subject? What is the predicate? And what does that last clause mean? At first I thought it was a joke, but from subsequent posts I think he meant it. If so, is the underlined section a given? Where is the evidence for "our deep-seated Jew-hating?"
Were all of us saying this was leading to pointless bloodshed and not much else really just driven by our deep-seated Jew-hating?
If the question is: Was this attack on Hizbollah (via the destruction of a large part of Lebanon) a huge mistake on every level?
The answer is: Yes
The only thing it has to do with "Jew-hating" is that it probably increased it somewhat. It also increased Hibollah-hating -- in the west (but it took their creds WAY up in the Middle East), by the way.
Jan Knaus
August 17, 2006 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
When Israeli Politicians say it's a "good thing" that the United Nations is coming in, one of two things are possible: either the Israeli army is so feckless and weak that they don't expect them to get their way or, more likely, they are simply lying. It's hard to believe that the United Nations force, which is mostly French and international, will simply be best buds with the radical Likudniks.
This brings up a more general point: EVERYTHING uttered by ANYONE who claims to speak for Israel is almost certain to be a lie. This isn't a case of differing interpretations, or different perspectives. They lie. When Israel denies that United States isn't funneling money in to Israel, as they did last night on NPR, they're simply lying. When they minimize the extent to which they have lost people and weapons, they are lying. It would help if people remembered that instead of taking everything they say at face value.
While admittedly unsuccessful in its goal of eliminating the capacity of Hezbollah to fire rockets at Israel, the Israeli action WASN'T successful in reducing the freedom of movement of Hezbollah's fighters in the south, destroying much of their weapons and defensive infrastucture and killing hundreds of terrorists. Hezbollah may have survived, but it IS not degraded. The new force in the south will probably not impede the ability of Hezbollah to threaten Israel.
I dunno though. It looks like the freedom of movement of the ground fighters is pretty much unlimited. As to their weapons and defensive instructure, I think I'll wait for the more detailed assessment.
August 17, 2006 5:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
Disarm Hezbollah yourself, Piper. You've got as good a chance as the Lebanese government does.
August 17, 2006 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
What could possibly justify a means, if not an end?
August 17, 2006 5:33 PM | Reply | Permalink
To the contrary, Matt is taking the view that it there were plenty of reasons outside anti-Zionism (or as he puts it "deep-seated Jew hating") to oppose Israel's military actions in the past 30 days. That answer to Matt's hyberolic question is "of course not.". Not everyone who though the Israeli response was "pointless" or "disproportionate" were rabid anti-Zionists.
That being said, it should be self-evident that one does not have to be anti-Zionist to advocate policies that are very bad for Israel. After all, the idea of building settlements sprinkled througout in the West Bank and importing Arafat and Fatah from Tunis to Gaza were both grievious errors committed by Israeli governments who believed at the time they were doing what was best for Israel.
August 17, 2006 5:40 PM | Reply | Permalink
Subject: "all of us . . . "
Predicate: "Were . . . really just driven . . ."
As for the deep-seated Jew-hating, the war fetishists of a few weeks ago seemed to be detecting great quantities of it around here. Irony, see?
August 17, 2006 5:52 PM | Reply | Permalink
Egypt agreed to peace because the Israelis agreed to return all the Egyptian land taken in 1967. They have yet to make such an offer to Syria.
August 17, 2006 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ends does--to a large extent--justify/explain the means. But in a significant number of cases this is not so. In those latter cases, it is the principle that counts. Thus is ethics divided into two incompatible camps. All deliberate action is action towards some end, and in that sense we can say that the action is done to achieve that particular end...whatever end that is. But that belogs to the theory of action not ethics.
August 17, 2006 6:36 PM | Reply | Permalink
Great jumpin' Jehosophat, what a pile of steaming poo, even by Valdron standards. Israel lied on NPR about American money? They lied about Israeli casualties?
Good luck making that one stick.
It's rather interesting that you feel a need to respond with lies. Are you so desparate to find a moral equivalence between Israel and Hezbollah that you need to stoop to gross falsification of fact? Wouldn't it be enought to say, "But what about all those Lebanese civilian dead?"
This is the differnce between sober analysis and fanatical ranting. The sober analyst looks at the facts and offers an interpretation. It's usually not without bias, but it usually is based on fact. The fanatic looks at the facts, and if they don't conform to his pre-existing beliefs, he just makes shit up. Which is pretty much how you would describe a typical Valdron rant.
August 17, 2006 6:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Ellen
There is a lesson for everyone, not just Israel. And not all lessons are grounds for joy
August 17, 2006 6:48 PM | Reply | Permalink
Nobody likes to hear "I told you so!" When true it's even worse! The cafe became quite boorish concerning Israel and how right it was to be wrong over the last few weeks.
If they could've, they would've! There was nothing holding Israel back from destroying Hizbollah accept ability. They failed, call it anything you like, but failure is loosing, same, same.
New age megiddoian cowboys burn down the house and the media think it's a Texas bbq and invite all their friends while the women and kids cry, die, fear, and loathe. Unfortunately the meat ran out early and nothing was left but beer drinking, freeloading, and high fiving till the break of dawn. The Cafe is still in hangover mode from the righteous party!
August 17, 2006 7:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, no! The war had to continue for three more weeks to demonstrate decisively that anyone foolish enough to kidnap a couple of Israeli soldiers and try to exchange them for Israeli held prisoners would sustain some really serious inconvenience. Success!!
Hoppy in Sacramento
August 17, 2006 7:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
ROTFL. I knew you had a sense of humour guy. I'm glad you got the joke! I didn't want you to think I'd forgotten about you.
But I can't take all the credit, it was a BradtheDad rant, I just changed the names. Ironically, I've been getting ratings, but your original didn't. Go figure.
I did add an extra paragraph at the end because your claims about the devastation to Hezbollahs ground forces and facilities and their loss of freedom of movement seemed somewhat speculative. And by somewhat speculative, I mean based in fantasy and wishful thinking on your part.
But that don't matter. What matters is, we did it together, bud! And you got the joke. I'm sure you're going to be a lot of fun. ROTFL!
August 17, 2006 7:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
Some people in this whole discussion seem to be ethically challenged in that their discussions revolve mainly around tactics, end/means procedures etc, never dwelling into what actually MOTIVATES these people to do what they do? In order to understand why it seems that military action seems to only make things worse ( the failure of offensive defense thinking) you have to go beyond this drivel involving tactic and other militaristic jargon, and deal with the serious ethical issues involved here. But ah.. forgot, ethics is a dirty word with this "worldly" crowd of Realists.
August 17, 2006 7:23 PM | Reply | Permalink
Aw....I made Ellen upset.
Is she gonna cry now?
Boo hoo hoo.
August 17, 2006 7:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
Okay, that's interesting. Clearly you've got some ideas in mind. Please elaborate. Set out your view of the ethnical framework and motivations here.
August 17, 2006 7:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
That is the paradox of the Realist position. Realist will maintain that ethics has no place in foreign affairs and counsels leaders to act accordingly. Leaders do act accordingly--all side--only to sow hatred and bitterness in those people who suffer their injustices. This hatred MOTIVATES otherwise common people to take up arms against these realist forces, who stupidly respond by ratcheting up their unjust ways.
We forget that in this age of information THE WHOLE WORLD IS WATCHING. And the common man generally operates from a sense of what is right and what is wrong. He is expected to. If he does not, his community brands him a sociopath. And you cannot expect the common man to make these effete distinctions between "domestic affairs" and "foreign affairs". And you know what? the common man is right, ethics does not tolerate such spurious distinctions. Ethics is universal and final. Realism is a transitory stage in global development.
August 17, 2006 8:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Hmmm... But then, how do you explain the success of Bush in getting the country to go along with and support his wars. Ohlmert and Halutz also had support for their wars.
I think perhaps the issue is that 'Realists' are to be expected to pursue national self interest and nothing but to the absolute and outer limits of their immediate power. That is a recipe for sociopathy.
I think that we need a broader view that understands that the absolute pursuit of immediate advantage is probably fatal. Immediate advantages are temporary, situations evolve, and your enemies gain power. If you've used your power to force them into an unacceptable situation, then their imperative will be to overthrow that situation utterly.
And I think that we need a broader view that understands that national self interest is a composite concept, based on well being and economic viability for a population.
August 17, 2006 8:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
The cost in human life was simply too high.
As some UN flunky said: There is somthing FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG when the number of dead children is greater than the number of dead fighters.
CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com
August 17, 2006 8:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
If there were a rating for mixed metaphors, this would be a 6.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 17, 2006 8:15 PM | Reply | Permalink
I'm not sure where I would place Lind on an ideological spectrum, but he was probably the first civilian (while a Congressional staffer) brought into the Marine think-tank plus evening bull sessions of the "Maneuverists" encouraged by Commandant Al Gray. Lind, I believe, then got them involved with Air Force COL John Boyd, the theoretician of the "lightweight mafia", and there was considerable synergy. The concepts picked up momentum, and were incorporated in the Army's AirLand Battle doctrine.
Air Force COL John Warden carried a lot of this into the 1990-1991 planning, but Schwarzkopf and Horner wouldn't accept him on the staff, but taking one of his proteges, Dave Deptula, who is now a three-star running Air Force Intelligence. As opposed to Boyd and Deptula, Warden tended to get poor grades in Plays Nicely with Others.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 17, 2006 8:24 PM | Reply | Permalink
. I agree with that. Realism--if it is to be true to itself--has to transcend itself which makes it a doctrine that is internally untenable.
As to your comment on the support that Bush has been able to garner with his fictions, have to say this: Bush was able to use the tragedy of 9-11 to pursue (as you call them) narrowly realist goals. He succeeded because the American people were traumatized and vulnerable at the time. Now, Americans see that they have been had. The Media certainly did help in selling the bill of goods, but ultimately the fiction cannot be maintained. As time goes on it becomes more and more implausible to maintain. Israeli popular support, I cannot speak for except to say that for Jews generally living in a world of non-Jews has been historically difficult. The reasons for that are beyond my understanding, but exploring this issue would be a good start in moving from the sterile technicalities to the more substantive issues involved.
August 17, 2006 8:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
That, is complete and total rot.
What color is the sky in your world? I am all for various views, however, I draw the line at outright delusion.
LEBANON was, until very recently, touted as a GREAT SUCCESS(!!!) of Bushs spendid little wat on terror(!!!). So, LESS THAN A YEAR after the Lebanese people voted the RIGHT WAY and booted Syria out, and our GREAT LEADER took numerous photo ops, all and sundry, I am supposed to give Israel a pass when they effectively destroy this FLEDGLING DEMOCRACY? We assured the PEOPLE OF LEBANON assistance, but we smile and inquire about dinner when it is destroyed over the KIDNAPPING OF TWO SOLDIERS? Thekilling of 37 children in one night, is when I stopped listening.
Israel lost MY RESPECT over this. I doubt am the only one.
CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com
August 17, 2006 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
Things in Lebanon are pretty dynamic. After the Cedar Revolution, after Hezbollah had captured the soldiers, maybe Israel might have been able to work something out with Beirut. Or maybe you're absolutely right, it wouldn't have worked, and war was the only option. But we'll never know now.
Maybe the war would have gone differently if Israel had gone to a little trouble to show that there was no other possible way to solve their problem. As it is it kinda looks like Israel wanted war, then they either had enough war or completely changed their mind. I might be completely off-base on that, but it kind of looks that way, and it didn't HAVE to look that way.
Whether or not you want war, you never want it to LOOK like you do. That simple pragmatic point would be a good one for both Bush and Israel to learn.
August 17, 2006 8:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
That, too.
Live by the sword...
It has not worked too well, ya think? I know, how about a new approach? Replace the status quo.
Fire Congress.
CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com
August 17, 2006 8:42 PM | Reply | Permalink
While admittedly unsuccessful in its goal of eliminating the capacity of Hezbollah to fire rockets at Israel, the Israeli action WAS successful in reducing the freedom of movement of Hezbollah's fighters in the south, destroying much of their weapons and defensive infrastucture and killing hundreds of terrorists. Hezbollah may have survived, but it IS degraded. The new force in the south will probably impede the ability of Hezbollah to threaten Israel.
Now that Israel is gone, Brad, I suspect the freedom of movement will return fairly quickly. However, if the Lebanese army does patrol the border area itself, that should at least hold down the frequency of cross-border incidents. And maybe that will help the Lebanese and the Israelis sleep a little better, along with the rest of us, and help to prevent future outbreaks of fighting.
I think the main point of those who argue that the Israelis hurt themselves far more than they helped themselves is the sense that whatever Hizbollah may have lost, temporarily, in terms of manpower and weaponry, it has more than made up for politically by strengthening its position in Lebanon and the broader Middle East.
Remember all that pre-war talk about Sunni concerns about the "Shiite crescent"? Well now Nasrallah is being lionized throughout the Arab world as the hero of Lebanon. And Hizbollah has shrewdly distanced itself from recent Syrian criticisms of the Lebanese government, and seems to have solidified its image in Lebanon as a partner in the Lebanese state, and a defender of the Lebanese nation. The Israelis apparently sought to drive a wedge between Lebanon and Hizbollah. But the effect - so far at least - is that Hizbollah is now seen as more Lebanese, and less a tool of foreign states, than it was before the war.
The Lebanese Army seems to have deployed more rapidly than people expected, and people are returning to their homes more rapidly than expected. Hizbollah is also energetically rebuilding bridges and other structures, and distributing money, food, medicine and supplies. (G.W. and friends could learn something from these guys about how to prepare for, and respond with alacrity to a disater.) The speed of the recovery and the presence of Lebanese troops will probably drain much of the urgency from the plans for deployment of an international force.
I haven't heard any expert estimates of Hizbollah's material and human losses. But Hizbollah will probably manage to fully re-arm and train plenty of new recruits in fairly short order. Based on reports today, Lebanon is adopting an "out of sight, out of mind" approach to Hizbollah weaponry, and doesn't seem at all disposed to mount any sort of disarmament campaign. They would probably be foolish to do so, given that Hizbollah has now demonstrated its indispensibility to Lebanon as a defensive line against Israel.
And I doubt the international force will go in with aggressive rules of engagement and an aggressive plan to disarm Hizbollah when the Lebanese government doesn't seem particularly interested in taking that approach.
August 17, 2006 8:43 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think the United States ,working with France may have been able to do that. Once upon a time.
It may not be too late. With a competent leader, of course.
CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com
August 17, 2006 8:47 PM | Reply | Permalink
Absolutely. Pity it was an incompetent and poorly thought through rationle.
My cat could make better decsions then this bunch.
CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com
August 17, 2006 8:56 PM | Reply | Permalink
Pesky New American Century.
Pesky failure.
CSPAN junkies visit http://spannerbackup.ipbhost.com
August 17, 2006 9:10 PM | Reply | Permalink