Non-Growth in Hours of Work
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released a report showing that while jobs have increased since the depths of the recession, the average work week has not recovered to the pre-recession level, meaning many folks may have a job but they aren't getting the same hours and pay as earlier.
This reflects one of my favorite measures of real job creation-- ignore the total number of jobs and instead look at the total number of hours of work created. The St. Louis Federal Reserve puts those numbers together in this nice graph which emphasizes that after a serious dip in hours of work in the economy, we are just barely above the pre-recession level of hours worked -- divided among a larger growing population.
Just more evidence of how truly anemic this recovery has been. And without any party, many economists are expecting the economy to take another dive soon.
Bush: Incompetent at War, Incompetent at Home.














It looks as though the up swing in hours started when Bush's tax rate cuts came into effect.
The sons of the prophet are noble and bold,
and quite unaccustomed to fear.
But the bravest by far in the ranks of the Shah
was Abdul Abulbul Amir
August 16, 2006 1:00 PM | Reply | Permalink
No-- a number of the 2001 tax cuts went into effect immediately, yet the drop in hours worked continued for two more years. What is remarkable is how the drop in hours appears to be on a solid descent for the first few years of the Bush administration with no indication of the tax cuts doing anything -- other than explode the deficit.
August 16, 2006 2:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
It used to be we were told Americans were being worked too many hours and scanting on leisure and vacation. I don't think we can have it both ways. Either people working fewer hours and having more leisure is a good thing or not.
August 16, 2006 3:14 PM | Reply | Permalink
To me it looks like a usual rebound from a recession. In other words, the rebound is proceeding as one would expect with or without the tax cuts. Perhaps slower, I don't know. What is interesting is that the stock market seems to have enjoyed "robust" growth in the same period. Possibly that isn't unusual either. From what I read, however, it may be significant that multinational corporate business profits have soared with no apparent relation to job growth or productivity, and certainly not wages. That's globalization for you.
One further observation about globalization. Peter Beinart has written about the consequences of globalization, suggesting that (if I read him correctly) among those consequences is the steadily rising tide of terrorism. Social entities, like economic entities, export what they "do best" (have the most expertise in). The US is a net importer, I think - correct me if I'm wrong, of goods and services. Our most preferred export (by other nations and peoples) is our culture, our American/Western way of life. That is what radical Islamists evidently hate most, since they are so undefended against it. So, if I accept the parity economic import/export trade paradigm, I should expect a similar parity in social/cultural transactions. We export our culture, radical Islamists export terrorism.
I'm pretty certain the above perspective is no news to anybody, any more than the dissociation of jobs, productivity and wages from profits in the economic recovery. My point is it's so easy to forget that international social/political trade has gotten unmoored from economic trade. Terrorist leaders, at any rate, appear to recognize and appreciate the social/political/(military) opportunities of the new paradigm; they get it. Why haven't our political leaders? Our people? Our American way of doing things?
Just a thought for discussion. I'm beginning to perceive that our way of life may have consequences for us that we are seriously unprepared for. Question for me is, what do we do about it?
August 16, 2006 3:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Those fewer hours come with coorespondingly fewer dollars.
You're not actually arguing that millions of Americans went on a leisurely vacation from 2001-2003 and only now are returning to work?
August 16, 2006 5:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
No no no, you forget, the effects of anything a Republican president does are delayed until something good happens.
Much like how economic prosperity under Clinton was because of Reagan and the Bush Sr recession the fault of Carter.
August 16, 2006 5:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I am pointing out that this is a clasic case of "damned if one does and damned if one doesn't". A few yaers ago we were being told we were working too much, should take more days off, longer vacations, and quit that second job. Now we are being told we are not working enough. Which by the way I doubt, since most people I know are still working their butts off, putting in lots of overtime (including unpaid "face time" among the salaried workforce) and, yes, working that second job still. I see no great increase at all in leisure time, forced or otherwise.
Maybe this supposed trend is just an artifact of the aging of the population with the result that more people are retiring, and perhaps working a part-time job afterwards?
August 16, 2006 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
This is AGGREGATE data; what it means is that lots of people are working long hours without vacations, while lots of others are working too few hours to make ends meet, meaning they can't afford medical care, much less taking a vacation.
The point is that the unemployment figure can disguise a lot of bad part-time jobs if you don't look at the total aggregate hours worked. In the ideal, if work was averaged out, we might all be better off with fewer hours worked, but it's not. We have a very unbalanced mix of overwork and underemployment.
August 16, 2006 7:57 PM | Reply | Permalink
The phased in rate cuts started in 2001 but were not in full force until 2003.
The sons of the prophet are noble and bold,
and quite unaccustomed to fear.
But the bravest by far in the ranks of the Shah
was Abdul Abulbul Amir
August 17, 2006 8:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
To put the graph in political perspective note that Bush was re-elected in Nov 2004 when total hours worked were well below Nov 2000
August 17, 2006 12:45 PM | Reply | Permalink
So you are saying that, with the country in recession, Bush designed his tax cuts to have an impact two years later?
Wow, you make Bush out to be more of an incompetent that I thought.
August 17, 2006 4:51 PM | Reply | Permalink
As are every administrations tax policies, they were designed to be passed by congress. The fact remains that hours worked took off after the rate cuts came into effect.
The sons of the prophet are noble and bold,
and quite unaccustomed to fear.
But the bravest by far in the ranks of the Shah
was Abdul Abulbul Amir
August 18, 2006 11:09 AM | Reply | Permalink