Vietnam Analogies Everywhere!
The Vietnam War was a long one, so those devoted to finding exact historical parallels can usually find something to fit into their proof that the nomination of Ned Lamont is a disaster for Democrats.
Jacob Weisberg mines 1972, as usual: "In 1972, the Democrats repudiated their flawed Cold Warriors and chose as their standard-bearer a naive and honorable anti-war idealist...In a similar way, the 2006 Connecticut primary points to the growing influence within the party of leftists unmoved by the fight against global jihad."
(Earlier in the piece, Weisberg makes clear that the Cold Warrior "repudiated" in 1972 was Senator Henry M. "Scoop" Jackson. I’m going to make it my special mission to knock this one down as often as I have to: Scoop Jackson wasn’t "repudiated" or robbed of something legitimately his. He just, like dozens of Senatorial would-be-presidents before and since simply Didn’t Get Any Votes. He’s not a martyr, just a guy who No One Voted For. A lot like Joe Lieberman in fact, although Saint Scoop’s performance in 1972 fell short even of Joe’s famous "three-way tie for third place." -- more conventionally known as "fifth place.")
Like McGovern’s naively isolationist supporters, who didn’t appreciate the actual Communist threat, Weisberg says that Lamont supporters and other anti-war Dems "see Iraq purely as a symptom of a cynical and politicized right-wing response to Sept. 11, as opposed to a tragic misstep in a bigger conflict."
I think it’s fair to call Vietnam a "tragic misstep" within a larger Cold War conflict, and probably fair to say that some McGovernites let the tragedy of Vietnam blind them to the obligations of American strength in the postwar conflict.
But is Iraq really a "tragic misstep in a bigger conflict"? As opposed to "a cynical and politicized right-wing response to Sept. 11"? Read the history of Vietnam, and it’s hard not to be somewhat sympathetic -- within the limits of what men like McNamara knew and assumed, you can see how each little step made sense to them at the moment, and before you know it, you’ve got 50,000 dead and no way out. But Iraq is not a "misstep" in the same way, or series of missteps. It was a very considered, aggressively sold choice to pursue a war that had little to with "the fight against global jihad," for reasons that we may never fully understand. It is a perfectly reasonable position to support ending the U.S. involvement in Iraq as quickly as possible, while strongly advocating the sort of engagement in Afghanistan, Pakistan and elsewhere that would be part of "the fight against global jihad," if you want to put it that way. As Kevin Drum pointed outthe other day, General Clark’s proposal on this from a couple years ago was good, so are any number of others, including Peter Beinart’s. Yes, we should make full use of American power -- economic, cultural, military, and the power of example.
The Wall Street Journal, on the other hand, did a wonderful thing this morning: They realized that the history of Dems and Vietnam is not reducible to 1972. The Lamont victory is not the McGovern nomination, but "arguably the most important victory for the American left since the Watergate rout of 1974." YES! That’s the metaphor we’re looking for: 75 new Democrats elected to the House, many of them from Republican districts which they held for many years, a group of serious, hard-working non-extremists like John Murtha, George Miller, and Chris Dodd.
Ah but that’s where all the trouble began: "If Democrats retake Congress, we will be back where we were in Vietnam circa 1975. Early that year the Congressional left blocked funds for our allies in the government of South Vietnam...within weeks... the last American helicopters were leaving Saigon [and] the Soviet Union was clearly emboldened to assert itself via proxies from Afghanistan to Central America."
The stab-in-the-back theory! Ah, if only we had just stuck it out for a few more years in Vietnam.
But I think the Journal is right. This is more like 1974 than 1972. And 2008 will be even more so. In 1974/75, everyone understood that U.S. involvement in Vietnam, a decade after Tonkin, had to end. That’s where we are with Iraq, and the only people who don’t seem ready to be part of figuring out how to end it are George Bush, Joe Lieberman and the Wall Street Journal editorial page. But folks like Weisberg, who see everything as 1972 all over again, aren’t making it any easier to get to that point.













I think that based on how much traitor talk the right is throwing our way, we should step up to the plate and just let them have it with both barrels. I think we need spokesmen to say that the Bush Republicans are traitors for using the military to advance their domestic political agenda, that they started the Iraq war to put more Republican's in Congress and that the blood of America's noble servicemen are on their hands. Our soldiers are dying in Iraq to keep Republican's in Congress. It's wrong and it's immoral. Let's have a real National Security Strategy that is run by the CIA and the Pentagon professionals, not Ken Mehlman and Karl Rove.
Jacob Weisberg is out of his tree, if he thinks that the War on Terror has not been manipulated to serve the GOP agenda.
I say if the GOP comes at us with stabbed in the back we smack them back with stabbed in the back. I think it is a message the American Public would be quite receptive to in light of all their suffering under Bush. It could work very well with low knowledge voters which have been the key to GOP victories in 2000 and 2004.
August 10, 2006 10:04 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the most importnat fact they keep ignoring is that of course the Democratic party split over Vietnam, and that split mostly happened in '68. There is a real big reason for that, it was JFK and LBJ who started the Vietnam War. The Dems had control of the government all through the 60s and could actually influence what policies were carried out.
The parallel today is the Republican party. They started Iraq and have control of the government, the only way any policy can change is if they want to. They are the party that should be rightly splitting over Iraq war policy. And if they get routed this November probably will. The '08 primaries on their side should be between a strong end the war faction vs a roughly stay the course faction (say Hagel vs McCain)
August 10, 2006 10:15 AM | Reply | Permalink
McGovernites let the tragedy of Vietnam blind them to the obligations of American strength in the postwar conflict.
I smell trouble.
Max B. Sawicky
August 10, 2006 10:22 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think the 1972 analogies have very little traction. Yet consider this: Many of McGovern's supporters endorsed an isolationist response to the Vietnam disaster, ironically the sort of position conservatives of the Taft mold had been espousing during the height of Liberal government in the United States. By 1972 conservatives were adopting a more engaged, internationalist approach à la Kennedy and Truman, and found many allies on the Left who were dismayed by McGovern's foreign policy approach and his supporters (especially student radicals). In other words there was a convergence between Old Left and New Right which forged the nucleus of a governing majority, leaving the New Left marginalized, where the New Right used to be.
My point is that people like Weisberg have it reversed: it is not left-wing radicals that are taking over, it is right-wing radicals that are trying desparately to hang onto power and remain relevant. Weisberg can't see that student radicals in the late 60s and eary 70s did not have any actual power, just a lot of exposure. Today's right-wing radicals have amazing influence and reach through new and old media, academia and occupy important positions within government or at least have a seat at the table. The people in power are the radicals, they are in full defense mode, and Weisberg is blinded to it because today's journalists have a sycophantic relationship to power.
August 10, 2006 10:41 AM | Reply | Permalink
Barbara O'Brien (Maha, from Mahablog) also reminds us that Nixon won election in 1972 due to racist language (due to tying the social programs with race) among other things, as well as interestingly that his secret plan to end the war was NEARLY COMPLETE and if the voters just gave him a little more TIME to GET OUT he'd be able to due it.
Basically that McGovern's way out would have been a disaster, Nixon's way out was realpolitik. But Nixon never promised victory. That was the revisionists and back-stab proponents.
August 10, 2006 10:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
I think it's only fair to point out that the author's bolded "some", which your quotation omitted does somewhat alter the meaning of his sentence.
August 10, 2006 11:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
I admit having been fairly young in 1972 (well, older than Weisberg but still not of voting age), but my memory of the McGovern Presidential campaign itself is of a series of errors that had nothing to do with opposition to the war: accepting the nomination around 3:00 a.m. (no prime time speech), the Eagleton-as-Vice-President foray, and a deficit that couldn't be made up--especially after "Peace is just around the corner." (op cit. the Belushi-as-Kissinger riff from the old SNL.)
In fact, I'd be inclined to suspect that people voted for Nixon because he "planned" to end the war, not because McGovern opposed it.
August 10, 2006 11:31 AM | Reply | Permalink
You're right that Nixon never promised victory. His "secret plan to end the war" was a big part of his 1968 Presidential campaign.
August 10, 2006 11:43 AM | Reply | Permalink
As one who was there, I think there it was a conservative tide, backlash of sorts, that swept Nixon into office, a swinging of the pendulum after the traumatic and unstable years of the sixties.
The tide was bigger than McGovern, Nixon, and all the other players. People were looking not only for a way out of Vietnam (Nixon's "secret plan" nonsense) but also for security, familiarity, and simplicity (such as Nixon's Bush-like phony toughness and over-simplification of issues) and were willing to buy into an illusion in order to have that phony peace of mind. Sounds familiar, huh? It was similar the to public mindset that put W in office.
At the moment, I think we're seeing the tide turn against Bush Republicanism, while at the same time public sentiment has turned against the war. The war is the conservative Republican's war, not the Dem's war as it was in Vietnam. There is no pretty way out of Iraq, just as there was no pretty way out of Nam. It took the election of a Republican President, Nixon, to finally get us out of Nam. For whatever historical analogies are worth, it may take a Dem Pres to get us out now, and I don't recall people holding it against Nixon that our evacuation of Nam was humiliating.
I do think the peace movement helped educate people about both wars and made it possible for people to question them. I just didn't think I'd be demonstrating against another Vietnam in my lifetime. How naive.
August 10, 2006 12:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
No, we don't need to call them traitors. As easy as it is to believe the Bush Administration is that cynical, it's the same crap that they do to us so that we don't end up debating the issues.
Republicans were wrong on the justifications to go to war besides a lot of doubt on if it was right: No WMD, bin Laden was on the run in Afghanistan. They were wrong on how to win the war despite the pleas of many (e.g. Shinsheki, Clark, ...) and we are left with this situation. They are wrong that things are rosy while even the generals on the ground admit we are bordering on civil war. The press has been, an continues to be, equally wrong.
In baseball you get three strikes and you're out. How many strikes do Republicans get?
August 10, 2006 12:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Why are we debating this on their terms? We're always trying to show how wrong they are in their justifications. Why aren't we talking about how deeply they (GOP and the press) botched Iraq, despite many warnings? Why aren't we talking about how bad things are despite reasonable Democratic plans (Clark, etc.)?
Screw the analogies, the GOP screwed this up and continue to ignore the realities of what is going on. You have to be absurd to continually pursue their non-strategy. That's all Lamont's victory is: a chance for a new direction, preferably one with a little accountability.
August 10, 2006 12:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Charitable interpretation: Jacob Weisber is an idiot and he was succesfully manipulated. Clearly, he was not always that way, and he had a nice little franchise collecting Bushisms. This is your brain on tWoT.
August 10, 2006 12:35 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think it’s fair to call Vietnam a "tragic misstep" within a larger Cold War
Not fair at all. It was as misbegotten an undertaking, from the beginning, as the Iraq War. 58,000 US troops dead and untold numbers of Vietnamese dead for what?
Read the history of Vietnam, and it’s hard not to be somewhat sympathetic -- within the limits of what men like McNamara knew and assumed,
Sorry, I've read about it, and I lived through it, and the folks who got us into that war were every bit as misguided as the crew who got us into Iraq. Vietman was a tragic, stupid war, just as Iraq is a tragic, stupid debacle. The two wars were not parallels in every way, but they were both enormously misguided enterprises.
As for the Replicans and their attempts to spin every failure into gold, they may be losing their magic touch.
August 10, 2006 12:44 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yeah; but what was the author's point in making the statement?
August 10, 2006 1:05 PM | Reply | Permalink
Isn't there a moral difference between creeping -- okay, maybe slouching but also, being pulled -- one step at a time into war and hubristically attacking a country you're not at war with just because you can?
August 10, 2006 1:12 PM | Reply | Permalink
Here's a parallel:
Ned Lamon = Jimmy Carter.
Plus the blind optimism, minus the presidency.
August 10, 2006 1:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
Is there any indication that the Vietnam War was fought for reasons other than to "roll back" Communist expansion, however misguided that reasoning might have been?
I think you're missing Mark's point here. There is alot of evidence that there were expressly domestic political considerations that went into the Iraq decision, namely, the desire to settle a number old scores under the cover of revenge for 9/11. I don't see any parallel in our decision to wage war in southeast Asia. If you disagree, I would like to hear your reasoning.
Other than that, I think most liberals (and most reasonable people generally) agree that our reasoning that led to Vietnam was fatally flawed from the outset. I just think that reasoning was much less cynical than the thinking that led us into Iraq.
August 10, 2006 1:28 PM | Reply | Permalink
Look, Weisberg is lying through his teeth with this tired old "McGovern" analogy. The problem for Weisberg is that his neocon colleague LOST. He betrays his real intent with the Scoop Jackson example. Jackson was the original neocon. This Lieberman loss translates into less influence inside the Beltway for the neocons. They lost, because Connecticut voters cared more about AMERICA than Israel. Period. Why, oh, why, does it surprise them? Americans by and large love Israel, but they don't give a hoot about the larger neocon, pro-Israeli, right-wing ideology. Weisberg, like Lieberman is mystified, and annoyed by that. All these arguments--and there have been some good ones from Eschaton, Digby and others this afternoon--are so much flailing against straw men. The real reason Weisberg is angry is because THE NEOCONS LOST AN INSIDE MAN.
August 10, 2006 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Ned Lamont had actually been a Governor, Annapolis Grad - US Naval officer and so on then your analogy might make some sense.
Of course there is still the even more important factor that Lamont is going to be the Jr Senator from CT not the parties nominee for President for Pete's sake.
Sheesh, do you get pleasure out of posting ridiculous nonsense on liberal Blogs or something? Is it some sort of Fraternity hazing ritual?
August 10, 2006 2:19 PM | Reply | Permalink
Yes. The most important policy lines from Assistant Secretary of Defense (International Security Affairs) to Secretary of Defense McNamara are below; see for the full memo:
McNaughton Paper 1965 - FRUS
193. Paper Prepared by the Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs (McNaughton)*
* Source: Department of State, Vietnam Negotiating Files: Lot 69 D 412, Project Mayflower. Top Secret; Sensitive. Copies were sent to McGeorge Bundy, Unger, McNamara, and Vance.
Washington, March 10, 1965.
ACTION FOR SOUTH VIETNAM
1. US aims:
70%--To avoid a humiliating US defeat (to our reputation as a guarantor).
20%--To keep SVN (and then adjacent) territory from Chinese hands.
10%--To permit the people of SVN to enjoy a better, freer way of life. Also-To emerge from crisis without unacceptable taint from methods used. Not--To "help a friend," although it would be hard to stay if asked out.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 10, 2006 2:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Well I hope so.
August 10, 2006 2:49 PM | Reply | Permalink
To amplify what many have already suggested on this thread: The Vietnam War, debacle that it was, was a model of geo-strategic clarity compared to the Iraq War. Communism was 1000 times the threat to the western world that 'islamofascism' is or could ever be, and Vietnam was at least 100 times more connected to the struggle against Communism than Iraq was, at the time of the invasion, to the spectre of Islamic terrorism.
The tendency to allegorize into East-West terms every nationalist/populist struggle in the 3rd world was mostly wrong, but far more reasonable than shoehorning Iraq into the WoT (which again, isn't remotely as grave a threat to liberal democracy as Communism was).
August 10, 2006 3:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
The Iraq war, and most U.S. influence in the Middle East, is over. Caput. Stratfor says so. Not exactly a raving radical source.
Can It Happen Here?
August 10, 2006 3:38 PM | Reply | Permalink
How about this for a parallel from 1979:
GH Bush = The guy who is currently negotiating with Hezbola to hold onto the Israel hostages until political event X takes place.
or
Obama/Clinton=Bush/Cheney=naive/puppet_master
You can make all the analogies you want, but just because you can fit a fish on the car seat doesn't mean it can drive.
August 10, 2006 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
The author's point, I think I can fairly say, was to acknowledge that the broad isolationism of "Come Home, America" and of some McGovern supporters was in fact politically damaging to the Dems and short-sighted as policy. I'm open to arguments to the contrary, or why this equals "trouble."
August 10, 2006 4:17 PM | Reply | Permalink
Thank you Mark, for a much-needed dose of clarity, perspective, and sanity regarding the inane "McGovern/1972" blather being so blithely thrown about in the wake of Sen. Lieberman's primary defeat.
Anyone with even a dim grasp of modern American history (a dwindling fraction, it seems: alas!) can see the holes in this argument of bad analogies: but unfortunately, I think the Adminstration, and Republicans in general, are going to be flogging it for all they are worth in advance of the Fall elections; since their arsenal of attactive campaign issues is getting thinner and thinner/
"McGovernizing" Ned Lamont, and by extension, the entire Democratic Party is really about the only ace they have left to play: one can only hope that the Democrats will not let them do this: I would love to see Howard Dean, or Wesley Clark go on national TV, and give an in-your-face rebuttal of this bad analogy along the lines you sketch in your post.
But, sadly, I fear this will remain just a hope, as Democrats strong-willed enough to call BS on the Bush gang over their facile stereotyping re "national security" issues seem few and far between.
August 10, 2006 5:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
August 10, 2006 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
curious to see your breakdown of why we went into Iraq ?
my opinion is to control mideast oil, and further the neo-con agenda.
but it also depends on WHO you are talking about.
if its Cheney and gang, yea they wanted to further the Neo-con agenda, but they also wanted the contracts.
greedy $OB's
speaking of contracts....
http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/911review/2006/aug/10/homeland_security_contracts_for_vast_new_detention_camps
Homeland Security Contracts for Vast New Detention Camps
Brad
911review
August 10, 2006 5:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
Re: Nixon's tricky language -- It would benefit the Democrats if they could make the midterm and 2008 elections about who has a plan, not who has the better language.
August 10, 2006 5:31 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mark Schmitt makes many good points but he misses one crucial issue that makes the analogy with the 1970s not to far-fetched after all. That is the long-term damage wrought by nominating a series of dovish candidates for president, starting with George McGovern in 1972.
Until very recently, national security was the one area where the American people still trusted the Republicans more than the Democrats, despite epic incompetence and despite the fact that the Iraq War has been very unpopular for a while. Why is that? Why do the American people not trust Democrats on security matters? Are scurrilous Republican attacks the only reason?
No. The fact is Democrats are perceived as weak on security because their candidates have never emphasized security in general and have never tried to portray themselves as especially tough. And that started with McGovern's message to bring home the troops and it accelerated with Jimmy Carter's teeth-gnashing response to the Iranian hostage crisis. The Democrats have never really recovered from the damage these two guys did to their reputation.
The point is that until Democrats actually start to emphasize security; until they actually TALK about it - other than saying what Bush is doing wrong - and do more than just say we need to strengthen our relations with allies, that cloud from the 1970s will never truly dissipate. Americans will instinctively prefer a president who makes aggressive mistakes to one who appears weak and indecisive.
August 10, 2006 6:10 PM | Reply | Permalink
If Weisberg subscribes to the theory that we are drifting into a situation comparable to 1974, with most of the public so bitter about lies and mismanagement of the war that they can't support the government even in legitimate aims...
Then the logical response would be for the right to stop trying to take cynical advantage of the war. Eh? And yet, even today, there is Peter King on Hardball taking this latest British terrorist "threat" (which a lot of us can't help but suspect is a big crock) repeating all the Republican talking points and tying them in to this Red Alert. Democrats are weak. The only strong Democrat is Joe Lieberman. Spying on the public is strong and weak democrats oppose it.
Again and again, instead of trying to make their failed policy work, they use it to club dissenters.
So who is to blame if Americans turn en masse in disgust against this repeated and disgusting misuse of fear tactics?
Weisberg is saying that we are the villagers that don't come running as fast, anymore, when the boy cries wolf. And somehow, that's our fault. Weisberg needs to rethink this.
August 10, 2006 6:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Gettysburg Says
Hmmm... well, let's predict what that means for his future. He can't fashion a peace between Israel and Egypt. Jimmy Carter already did that. Menachem Began and Mohamed Anwar al-Sadat became Nobel Peace Laureates in 1978. Jimmy Carter should have shared that award, but he was passed by. He didn't whine about this. Carter wasn't a whiner.
Carter finally got his Nobel in 2002, much to the disgust of the radical right, which can't deal with a man of faith opposed to their corruption of religion in the name of political expediency. So, if Lamont is able to follow in Carter's footsteps, he should be able to collect his Nobel in 2025 or thereabouts.
Lamont can't forge a peace between Israel and Jordan, either. Bill Clinton facilitated that in 1994. Hmm...Peace to the West, Peace to the South.... Two Democratic Presidents in office. How many peace treaties in the Mideast concluded in the administrations of, say, Nixon, Ford, Reagan, Bush Senior, and Bush Junior? How many likely in the last two years of Bush the younger's tenure?
So, maybe Lamont will have a field for operation... Let's see, there's Lebanon, and there's Syria, there's the Palestinians, too. Of course the next Democratic President may be able to do something about those before Lamont runs for that office. He'll just have to make peace elsewhere.
aMike
August 10, 2006 6:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
Americans will instinctively prefer a president who makes aggressive mistakes to one who appears weak and indecisive.
I'd say in Bush, we have someone who does both. (Consider his timid response to the Israeli conflict and even to the home-based problem of Katrina.)
August 10, 2006 7:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
I wouldn't dream of speaking for Max, but the trouble I smell is your infuriating attempt (in an otherwise fine piece) to curry a small smidgin of favor with the McCarthyites (Joe M) who still want to impose litmus tests to boot the McGovernites out of the party. Even if some of the McGovernites were wooly headed idealists, don't you understand yet that these clowns will take every concession you make as a sign of your weakness and concede not one scintilla to you? You don't HAVE TO agree that all McGovernites were sober realists in order to simply avoid making talking points for the other side. No one's attacking YOU from the right. You don't HAVE TO go on the defensive.
But you do. It seems you can't help yourself. You can't strike a blow for the "left" without immediataely softening it with one for the "right". It's ingrained in you. Some would call it the Stockholm Syndrome.
I really don't know (and would really like to know) what guys like you (and there are many here) think this buys you. In the bare-knuckles world we live in, I don't think it buys you anything.
August 10, 2006 7:50 PM | Reply | Permalink
Mr. Schmitt says
Normally my training makes me look backward. But occasionally I'm tempted to look at the current world instead, and that's especially the case when confronted with the kind of historical analogies about which Schmitt writes. It seems that there's a kind of time warp regarding VietNam: except when worries about Bird Flu catch our eye a minute or two, we have little or no idea about what's going on in that country now. It might be worthwhile to take a moment away from wondering who "lost" VietNam...those Nasty McGovernites, those nasty Democrats in 1974, and consider whether VietNam was "lost" at all.
I did a quick GoogleNews search on VietNam, looking to see if I could find information about a joint educational project in which my institution has an interest. I found lots of interesting things. Rather than make this post an epic. Let me suggest that persons interested do their own Googling. As an enticement let me provide three links.
(05-08-2006) WASHINGTON — A Vietnamese trade office opened on Tuesday in San Francisco, California to promote co-operation and trade between Vietnamese and American businesses. Attending the opening ceremony were a delegation from the Ministry of Trade led by Deputy Trade Minister Do Nhu Dinh, Viet Nam’s Consul General in San Francisco, Tran Tuan Anh, the International Trade Director of the San Francisco Mayors’ Office, Mark Chandler, and representatives from US-based non-governmental organisations and businesses.
Viet Nam’s youngest conductor ever, 25-year-old Nguyen Anh Son, will perform in his homeland debut next month, conducting the HCM City Ballet Symphony and Orchestra (HBSO).
On September 18, Son will conduct the HBSO’s symphony orchestra in a performance of Fantasia Utyos by Russian composer Sergy Rachmaninov.
AMERICAN PACIFIC UNIVERSITY Located in bustling and exciting Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, American Pacific University offers a unique concept in high school and college education.
Combining the curricula, methods and faculty from some of the United States leading educational institutions and the vision of one of Vietnam's leading educational sponsors, APU allows a student to learn English, get a High School Diploma (both American and Vietnamese) attend an American Community College, transfer to a prestigious American four-year institution, continue on for a Masters Degree and even get a Doctor Degree!.
None of this denies that the Viet Nam experience was a "Tragic Misstep". If anything, it suggests it was even a greater tragedy. So much waste. So much miscalculation. I don't believe in historical inevitability, at least not much. I do believe that certain economic and cultural forces have a dynamic which overrides political theories based on "Godless Communism" and the "Domino Theory". This fall Ha Noi will host a Viet Nam-US economic cooperation fair entitled "Viet Nam - potential for investment opportunities" from Nov. 6/9. Strikes me that this makes the question of who won/lost VietNam tragically moot.
aMike
Post Scriptum: Q.E.D.
August 10, 2006 10:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
From reading on the subject, and going back in my memory, it seems to me very clear that "the war" was a pretty dead issue in the '72 election. It was over except for the political fig leaf of "Vietnamization." Within a month of November '72, the last combat troops left Vietnam, leaving only advisors. Like at the beginning. So Nixon was NOT running on "stay the course." He was running on cultural issues. Screw the hippies, put the drug-takers in jail, forget the civil rights movement, what about "crime in the streets?" and so on. It had taken a long while for the Democratic reformers to win the faction war and pronounce a new, flower-power era of hope, just in time for the fading of the left. Cultureally, there was the craziness of Patty Hearst, the Symbionese Liberation Army, and all that. The "silent majority" firmly rejected what they saw as the chaos of the '60s, and Nixon won the culture war, and the Southern states too. The Democratic reform faction did come to power in '74, because of Watergate, but it had learned "lessons" from the McGovern fiasco. It's about time for those "lessons" to be revisited.
August 11, 2006 3:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
Revisionist nonsense.
John Kerry had a military record and ran on creating two more army divisions and "getting the job done" (e.g. in Falluja).
HRC has clearly positioned herself to the right of the Republicans on foreign policy in order to avoid appearing weak.
What we need is someone like Wes Clark, who realizes how disastrous the Beinarts and the Kristols of the world are for the military. The neocons have effectively destroyed the US military with their adventure in Iraq. And while doing this, we have handed a great propagada victory to the Islamic jihadists (who represent a very real national security threat).
August 11, 2006 3:42 AM | Reply | Permalink
Weisberg, like Lieberman is mystified, and annoyed by that.
No, they are not mystified. They're about to be out of power and, frankly, disgraced. They can see it coming, so they're pressing every propaganda button on their Wurlitzers, desperately hoping that disinformation and fear can work one more time.
It's all they got, at this point. Disinformation and irrational fear.
August 11, 2006 6:39 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that in 72 Joe Lunchpail voted for Nixon for just those reasons. But in 74 I've always thought he voted against the Republicans ,not particularly because of Watergate , but because of the gas lines during the preceding winter . If you visited any diner or hardware store that winter you'd hear angry comments that "the pols are able to get their gas".
BP's failure to prevent corrosion in its
North Shore Pipe Lines might elect a couple of democratic senators this fall. Of course
Rove will release oil from the strategic reserve (remember how Clinton was reviled for that)to try and overcome that.
August 11, 2006 7:37 AM | Reply | Permalink
I agree that the relevant date of comparison is 1974, and it is notable that Lamont is merely a senatorial candidate, not a presidential standard bearer. Liberals also have a fair point that concern over the leftward drift of Democratic foreign policy is a premature at this point and that the focus needs to be on retaking power from the GOP.
However, Democrats need to think hard about how to avoid a repeat of the mistakes of the 1970s. The fecklessness of the Carter adminsitration's foreign policy and the general apathy and hostility towards the Cold War by many Congressional Democrats resulted in GOP dominance of national security issues throughout the remainder of the Cold War. Taking back Congress on a wave of anti-war sentiment only to lose the presidency for 3 of the next 4 terms would be a hollow victory.
August 11, 2006 11:34 AM | Reply | Permalink
sentiment only to lose the presidency for 3 of the next 4 terms would be a hollow victory.
Watch out for the Post Hoc ergo Propter Hoc fallacy. Whatever caused Reagan to win in 80 and 84 (and I'm not sure it was his greater national security credibility), I think the issue which defeated Dukakis was more Willy Horton than anything else . And in in Clinton's case , his notable lack of national security credibility seemed irrelevant. .
I have the heretical thought that maybe the Democrats should just stand for what they think is right however much that pains David Browder and the New Republic. ..
.
August 11, 2006 1:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The stab-in-the-back theory"
It's proponents never get their facts straight, either. The aid wasn't blocked, it was reduced from $1 billion to $700 million.
August 11, 2006 1:03 PM | Reply | Permalink
I think "tragic" does fit, if you consider tragedy a genre of theatre. The necocons were (and evidently still are) devoted to the tropes of tragedy. Not since Vietnam has there been such a setup for failure as Iraq. It would be comic if it weren't so, well, tragic. Think of it as being like a major studio Hollywood epic tragedy, a sellout by virtue of clever marketing and salesmanship, full of sensational effects, an enormous cast of very bad, over the hill actors who don't know when to quit. Parsecs of footage lying about the floor of the editing room, several near-cancellations, and now running out funds, re-worked as a great futuristic apocalyptic war flick.
I'm not making jokes. That the whole Iraq enterprise has turned so pathetic is a genuine tragedy, a real life drama with real live actors getting ripped and torn to shreds by the thousands upon ten thousands. To Bush & Cie. it's reality TV. They plan on being the last patriotic dudes left on board steering a sinking ship in their minds. They are so in their minds. They need to be snapped out of it.
But, alas, real life, we cannot and should not abandon Iraq now, not if we take anything seriously about our values as a people and nation. For better or worse, we have committed ourselves to seeing this one through, even if we were hoodwinked. We're going to have to get really humble and do what we're told to do by the present government of Iraq Bush&Cie. want us to believe they have created. Nope, Iraqis themselves put their team together and have shed a lot of blood, far more than we have, to find a way to peace. They may be able to do it, but we will have to let them do it without our manipulation, agendas, interference, etc. Anything less would be a disgraceful shirking of responsibility. I hate this war no less than anybody, but we have to take responsibility for our part in it and not turn it into our own little domestic theater production. If Iraq goes down, so do we, and if Iraq survives it will be because we finally helped them get rid of us on their own timetable.
August 11, 2006 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
Dukakis didn't exactly look presidential in the tank, did he? I don't see the point of debating whether national security hurt the Dems in 1980s. Of it course it did, just as GOP race-baiting on crime and welfare hurt them as well. The Dems disadvantage ended when the Cold War ended, which paved the way for Clinton to get a pass in 1992.
You shouldn't have to be part of the TNR staff to take the view that downplaying the threat of Islamist terror (even if it is a perfectly natural response to Bush's exploitation of it) is not only near-sighted policy but disastrous politics.
August 11, 2006 4:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
He looked silly in the tank. Pity. He was an extremely decent guy and a competent governor.
Whatever the extent to which national security hurt the 80s dems , it wasn't sufficient to cause Dukakis to be behind in the the July 88 polls. Therefore my
view you find pointless to discuss.You're probably right.
More to the point , then ,the fact that of the world's billion muslims some number hate us sufficiently to kill themselves in attempting whole-sale massacre of innocent air travellers (including BTW many fellow muslims)is a major policy question and you're absolutely right it should not be downplayed .
Responding with broad brushed attacks on Islam would of course be great politics. Jingoism and Racism always is. It would be irrelevant if not actually counterproductive policy but hey you can't win em all .
Conversely ,actually dealing with it by
-inter alia- supporting a Palestinian settlement infuriating to the Israeli right and the TNR staff would be good policy but would never compete with the vote-getting appeal of a rousing denunciation of the Islamofascists. But just maybe we should do it anyway.
August 12, 2006 9:41 AM | Reply | Permalink