Anyone looking for a simple way to measure the erosion of U.S. influence at the U.N. need look no further than Venezuela's increasing popularity. This summer, Hugo Chavez announced Venezuela's candidacy for the seat on the U.N. Security Council that opens up on 2007.

Venezuela hopes its promise to counterbalance what it calls "American imperialist influence" on the Security Council will win enough votes from Latin American countries to get elected. Five years ago, any country running solely on an anti-American platform would be laughed out of the General Assembly, but Bolton and the Bush Administration have opened the door for such a run.

Obviously, things have changed over the past five years. The Iraq war, combined with more under-the-radar disagreements over the International Criminal Court, the Kyoto Protocol, and U.N. dues payments, has eaten away at U.S. popularity and influence. These differences aside, though, Venezuela's election should by no means be a sure thing.

Enter John Bolton. A year ago, the U.N. was only as unfriendly to U.S. interests as, well, any other negotiating forum. Now, countries are less likely to defer to Bolton at the U.N. than other U.S. ambassadors whom they trust and work well with in other forums.

In addition, Bolton has vocally (more so than other high-ranking U.S. officials) backed Guatemala for the Security Council seat over Venezuela. “I don’t see anything wrong with stating your position,” said Bolton, explaining his statements. Yet, most Latin American countries are now publicly acknowledging that the U.S. endorsement is a burden for Guatemala and makes it much harder to deny the seat to Venezuela.

What's the point in all this? Simply, the clarity for which Bolton is lauded in conservative circles could well undermine the U.S. effort to keep Venezuela out, much as it already has on a host of U.N. reform issues. If Venezuela is elected to the Security Council later this year, John Bolton needs to shoulder some of the blame.

Update: For more on this, check out fellow BW contributor Michael Roston's piece on this at Raw Story, which I just discovered. Great minds think alike, I guess.