Fluid Dynamics
Call me crazy, but I don't see what kind of sense a ban on liquid travel on airplanes is. To be sure, letting people carry soda or shampoo onto an airplane could (apparently) allow them to conceal an explosive. And a bomb going off on an airplane would be a very bad thing. But by the same token, a bomb going off on a crowded Metro or Armtrak car would be quite bad. Hell, a bomb going off on a crowded airport security line snaking back and forth as everyone waits to have their bags searched for offending liquids woud be really point. At some point, common sense needs to kick in.
Banning firearms on airplanes is an inconvenience that is very effective at halting what could otherwise be a very easy method of hijacking airplanes since guns are pretty easy to obtain. It's fairly clear, however, that permitting people to carry liquid aboard planes doesn't necessarily lead to a rash of airplane-bombings. It is, however, a huge inconvenience for travelers.
Worst of all, it's at best a minor inconvenience for terrorists. If you had a cell with some working liquid explosive devices ready to be set off, you could react to the ban by setting them off someplace other than an airplane. As outlined above, I would suggest a crowded rush hour Metro car. Try to position yourself near where the guy driving the train is located and blow it up on the Red Line between Gallery Place and Metro Center. That'd be a pretty good terrorist attack.
As James Fallows argues in his great "Declaring Victory" article, one of the main purposes of terrorist attacks is to provoke reactions to terrorism. In an ideal world, absolutely zero people would be trying to detonate liquid explosives on airplanes. Given that a certain number of people seemingly are trying to do so, you still have to ask yourself -- aren't we better off doing our best to find them and then taking our chances? A ban on liquids is a large price to pay in order to merely displace attacks from planes to things-that-aren't-planes.












That's an ignorant statement coming from someone that supposedly believes in science.
The correct solution lies in probability, expected values, utility functions, and Type I and Type II errors.
Please redo and resubmit your essay.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 10, 2006 9:11 PM | Reply | Permalink
Getting rid of fluids on board a plane really isn't that big of a deal. It will make certain trips where you stay over at a friends house a bit more difficult, and it will make other trips just about the same, after a short transition.
After that transition time, you will find kiosks and stores at the destination airport that will sell you pre-put together, and branded, overnight kits with small sample size 1-4 day quantities of your favorite fluids, and nicer hotels will begin to stock replacements for free. You may be given these onboard your flight the way that sleep kits are given out on overseas flights.
The departure airports will sell inspected/sealed bottled water AFTER you go through security that you can take onboard.
I am not saying that giving up fluids on an airplane is a wise or necessary or long term option, I am just saying that if it were a long term decision, it would really be no big deal for 99% of most fluids carried on board.
The harder ones will be the baby foods, the medicines, and breast milks. Those will be expensive to seal, or expensive to replace, or expensive to authenticate.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 10, 2006 9:18 PM | Reply | Permalink
The ability to bring an airplane out of the sky is a "force multiplier" that makes it different from the situations you present as analogous. In line at the airport, even a pretty big suitcase bomb would only get a couple dozen people; knocking an airplane out of the sky could get ten times that.
August 10, 2006 9:25 PM | Reply | Permalink
The first commentor had a good point. Airplanes really are a uniquely vulnerable target and as such should get more protection than other modes of transportation. Subways, security lines, trains, and malls are all roughly equivalent and so removing fluids in any of them wouldn't be particularly effective. I heard a guy on NPR claim that you could carry enough liquid explosives to take down a plane (if you sat next to the wall) in a purse. Even in the relatively sophisticated London bombings fours terrorists managed to kill only 50 people.
For a truly onerous and unnecessary security policy try England after the announcement of the most recent plot. No carryons of any kind, not even a book to read. Now that would be a terrible flight...
August 10, 2006 10:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
What dj said.
A small bomb on a plane destroys the plane through catastrophic depressurization and other catastrophic aerodynamic forces on the fuselage. This kills the people not through the blast itself but by forcing them to take shrapnel and finally ground right in the face. Lots of folks will survive the blast to die when the plane hits the ground and/or when the people drown.
The same bomb on a train or in an auditorium will kill many fewer people and many more will survive any train derailment or fire in the auditorium.
The four bombs in London on trains and buses on 7/7/05 killed a total of 39 people. Conceivably those same bombs on four A-380s could have killed between 2000 and 3200 people.
Because of that, planes will always be a target.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 10, 2006 10:08 PM | Reply | Permalink
What's going to be really bad, much much worse than removal of fluids is elimination of electronics. Good-bye iPods, cellphones, dvd players, laptops....
If only there was some way I could occupy my time with a small compact portable object containing interesting fiction or non-fiction that I could carry on board a plane that would be safe from tampering. Think. This must be possible.
Seriously, no laptops or iPods or dvd players!!!! Suddenly I'm all in favor of nuking Bin Laden Land.
---- Just say no to 0 ratings. Especially from petey, the ratings abuser.
August 10, 2006 10:13 PM | Reply | Permalink
Especially when Homeland Security will only let books by Regnery Publishing onboard.
August 10, 2006 10:34 PM | Reply | Permalink
well if you follow the thought in your own predictions above, about needs like personal toiletries, the market will figure out a way to fill these needs to your ultimate satisfaction, too. The airlines, in flight, and airport shops past security, will furnish you with a full panoply of the most wonderful music, reading matter, movies, internet, TV, and other entertainment at a delightfully affordable price.
Why do I think I am missing some nots in the statement above?
August 10, 2006 11:02 PM | Reply | Permalink
If they really wanted to scare americans, i would set off a bomb in a jcpenny's in a malll, or a walmart. That would create 100x more fear than this.
August 10, 2006 11:06 PM | Reply | Permalink
It always seems to me that the panic that comes after one of these alerts is like trying to close the barn door after the horse is already out. One news report indicated that our security forces already knew about the possible dangers of fluids on planes since the plot in the '90s to blow up planes from the Philippines over the Pacific. So we've known about it for over a decade but only doing something about it, or rather as Matt is suggesting overreacting. Short of banning all carryons, planes will be open to attack, and people will have to factor that into their travel choices. Do I want to be on a plane when a terrorist bomb goes off? Of course not, but neither do I want to be on a plane when it crashes, I haven't done any study, but I bet in the last ten years more people have died in crashes than in a bomb on a plane.
I just returned to Warsaw, Poland, yesterday, via a connection in Paris. I noticed they were inspecting all carryons, and doing it pretty efficiently (quelle surprise as Air France seems to think that 45 minutes is enough time for you and your luggage to make your connecting flight, is there a more passenger unfriendly airport than Charles de Gaulle?), and the agent had no problem with the bottle of Bordeaux I picked up in the duty free shop. I guess she couldn't believe that anyone would try to hide a bomb in French wine, on the other hand, would a Coke bottle be more suspicious?
August 11, 2006 2:11 AM | Reply | Permalink
You could ban all luggage, both carryon and checked luggage, and somebody could still sneak explosives onto the plane by hiding them in body cavities. Until we have full-body x-rays of the kind seen in the movie "Total Recall", it simply won't be possible to have 100% security in addition to convenience.
So much for perfume vendors at duty-free shops in airports. They've just gone out of business.
August 11, 2006 2:20 AM | Reply | Permalink
Matt -- You're making too much sense. We're but ants madly scurrying around our hill after it has been disturbed again.
Your link to Fallow's article is actually to a Metro page. Declaring Victory (full article requires subscription).
August 11, 2006 5:57 AM | Reply | Permalink
Tamper resistance--whether for DRM or to authenticate the operations of the device--could conceivably become a common feature of future electronics. This could achieve the purpose of proving that something is a genuine electronic device--but that authentication would have to be revoked everytime someone managed to crack the tamper resistance of a particular model of device.
It would be damn annoying, but still workable.
August 11, 2006 6:16 AM | Reply | Permalink
I like to freeze a bottle of water before leaving on a trip. Since ice is a solid, not a liquid, I should be allowed to carry this on, correct?
August 11, 2006 7:27 AM | Reply | Permalink
Planes might well always be targets, but IMHO that is more due to bin Laden's (very close to successful) attempt to use the West's fear reaction against itself to do enormous economic damage (sort of like AIDS, except a meme rather than a virus).
Anyone with any technical education or problem-solving bent can describe to you 17 ways to cause mass death in civilized settings that don't involve airplanes (no, I am not going to give you any examples). Only civilized behaviour and good police work keep our society from mass terrorism and associated collapse. Too bad the current US Administration doesn't seem to understand this.
sPh
August 11, 2006 7:38 AM | Reply | Permalink
Ugh, figures this would happen right before I'm supposed to fly to other parts of the country two consecutive weekends in a row. And my checked luggage always gets lost.
Wish I had a solid shampoo factory right about now. I'd be making a mint.
You do know, darling, that your nice description of a terrorist attack on the Metro (which, I agree, would bring the city to its knees--just look what happened with the flooding in June!) means big brother will be monitoring your phone calls from now on and you'll probably never be able to fly again without being "randomly selected" for screening....
August 11, 2006 8:21 AM | Reply | Permalink
The idea that planes are a more dangerous place to set off bombs than other crowded places is at least plausible.
Another consideration is that jet planes are pretty damn energy inefficient as a means of travel--so perhaps making them more inconvenient isn't all bad.
August 11, 2006 8:33 AM | Reply | Permalink
Would it help if we replaced airplanes with zepplins?
That would be so awesome.
August 11, 2006 9:06 AM | Reply | Permalink
By Matthew's logic, we ought to get rid of metal detectors in airports too. After all, if a metal detector just prevents a terrorist from bringing a bomb on an airplane, then what good is it, since the terrorist can just bomb a subway.
I guess I have to agree with John Podhotetz here.
August 11, 2006 11:51 AM | Reply | Permalink
name another target where the detonation of a relatively small device would kill over 300 people a time. This would most definitely NOT occur in a airport line, in a train, or in a restaurant.
Please think about things before you post.
August 11, 2006 11:59 AM | Reply | Permalink
As punishment for forgetting that a pressurised cabin is different from a train carriage, you should come up with good arguments against plane passenger profiling, the arguments for which seem to have reached a new crescendo with the latest carry-on restrictions. What plot is deterred by making parents taste baby formula?
August 11, 2006 12:22 PM | Reply | Permalink
I have picked out a couple of hundred such as I have waited in various types of security lines and delays over the last 5 years. If you are an actual registered architect you should have no trouble doing the same. Please think about things before you post.
sPh
August 11, 2006 12:30 PM | Reply | Permalink
Matt's basic point is sound. I take that to be that we can't make airplanes impervious to terrorism, and other targets will start to look comparatively more attractive the harder we try. Yes, aeroplanes are uniquely vulnerable and dangerous, but what the London bombings showed is that killing 50 people and injuring others is not terribly difficult. In fact, on a per-person killed basis the London attacks may have been cheaper and less risky than the September 11 attacks.
August 11, 2006 1:16 PM | Reply | Permalink
Official T.S.A. announcement of baggage rules change is HERE.
It's very simple: no liquids or gels or creams except for baby formula, breast milk, and prescription meds with matching name.
Nothing about electronics or books or eyeglass cases, etc.
This part sounds like the theory that you will be able to buy liquids past security and carry them on is wrong:
Of course, other countries will have other rules, and also you can be sure that there will be TSA Agents that are idiots at interpreting what a gel or cream is, i.e., how soft is that lipstick; is that flat foil packet a dry towelette or does it have an impermissible amount of fluid in it?
Looks like I am going to have to look into getting a prescription for those contac lens rewetting drops for long flights, as I value my corneas.
August 11, 2006 1:26 PM | Reply | Permalink
That was, and as of this moment still is, a BAA (British Aviation Authority) limitation for flights originating in the UK. Given the centrality of Heathrow to the world aviation system, that is a lot of critical flights.
sPh
August 11, 2006 2:07 PM | Reply | Permalink
Count me sceptical, like Matt.
About subway: a mentally deranged Korean with a can of gasoline killed 100 people by setting a subway car of fire. Perhaps people carried a lot of flammable stuff.
Can one destroy a plane with explosives that would fit in a purse? Perhaps. However, the stuff about binary explosives was known for many years and nobody made a serious attempt. I suspect that it is easier to conceptualize than to accomplish. Perhaps a military laboratory can prepare such stuff, but otherwise I suspect it would be very difficult.
I must also confess that I like to drink a lot and I usually carry a thermos bottle full of tea on the plane, and a bottle with water, and something to eat too. Wouldn't it be nice to live in the universe of "Kill Bill", so one could carry a katana on board?
August 11, 2006 3:21 PM | Reply | Permalink
All I know is, this really sucks for contact lens wearers.
August 11, 2006 3:27 PM | Reply | Permalink
The terrorists seem almost obsessed with causing air disasters. This may be partly out of economic considerations, since sinking a ship or derailing a train will not cause the sort of damage (or panic) that bringing down jetliners would. However I suspect there is an element (a large one) involving an atavistic hate of modern technology too. This is almost never mentioned but fundamentalist Islam has a far bigger problem with modern science and technology than even the most rock-ribbed of Christian Bible-thumpers do. It's been barely a generation since Saudi Arabian clerics finally threw in the towel on the old Ptolemaic model of the solar system. Probably there is some sort of half-conscious notion that people who fly are violating Allah's will since if He had wanted people to do so he would have given them wings.
August 11, 2006 3:37 PM | Reply | Permalink
Most airport terminals have a fairly open arhitecture: the shock wave from an explosion will rapidly decompress to less than lethal force so that a circle of 100% fatalities from a primitive small-scale explosion will extend only a few yards from its source. Airplanes on the other hand contain the shock wave initially, and, more importantly, any survivors will die when the plane crashes to earth.
August 11, 2006 3:41 PM | Reply | Permalink
a few of us got into discussing the same general theme in a short sub-thread HERE.
August 11, 2006 3:53 PM | Reply | Permalink
A small group, armed with infantry weapons, breaking through the civilian guards of a chemical production plant, nuclear reactor, regional air traffic control center, oil refinery,, electrical power grid control system, high-pressure gas pipeline control station, etc. Depending on the system, you would need 1 or more technical specialists who could force the system into a hazardous condition, then use small charges on the control panels and control computers.
Many systems are fail-safe, and many are not. Can we say Bhopal? Chernobyl? Texas City?
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 11, 2006 4:01 PM | Reply | Permalink
Certificate Revocation Lists are basic components of public key infrastructure authentication systems.
--
Howard
*equal opportunity offense to both extremes*
August 11, 2006 4:04 PM | Reply | Permalink
I didn't say "airport".
I am not going to say any more, as I think hcberowitz below is already flirting with a trip to Gitmo.
sPh
August 11, 2006 5:20 PM | Reply | Permalink
"The terrorists seem almost obsessed with causing air disasters."
There are some people in Nairobi, Dar es Salaam, Madrid, London, and Mumbai who might disagree.
August 12, 2006 5:54 AM | Reply | Permalink
Aside from the fact that these type of reactionary measures provide maximum inconvenience and a virtually meaningless increase in security for air travelers, I think they are dangerous in the long run.
Airplanes are, in reality, relatively difficult to target. You have to get through multiple layers of security that may or may not subject you to a full cavity search only to wait around for an hour hoping that none of the other passengers reports you to security for looking suspicious, nervous, or Arabic. We all joke, but it is a fairly thorough process.
In contrast, as Matt says, anyone can hop onto a full subway with a large (unscreened) backpack and in 2 minutes be deep into the tunnel to maximize impact.
Tying back to the idea of displacing targets, do we really want to be daring The Terrorists to move off their bizarre fascination with airplanes? I'm not saying we should stop protecting airplanes, simply that publicizing their transformation into impenitrable fortesses - particularly at much inconvenience to millions - may not be a great strategy.
August 12, 2006 10:33 AM | Reply | Permalink