"I try not to get too deep into efforts at election forecasting -- past effort efforts to read tea leaves haven't gone so well -- but it certainly is suggestive that so many Republicans don't want to admit they're Republicans."

There definitely is a pretty strong Democratic wind blowing at the moment. But determining the direction and force of the wind is only one element in the tea leaf reading process.

The three candidates for the Republican nomination for the senate in Tennessee were hardly ever heard to utter the words "Bush" or "Iraq." However, a candidate for an open House seat in our first district tried the opposite strategy and talked about how he opposed cutting and running in Iraq; and how he strongly supported Bush. He finished third.