Byron York at the National Review tries to snipe at a piece of gossip journalism printed by Washington Post columnist Al Kamen a couple of days ago, and claims that Bolton is going to win.

York has some of his facts wrong, and besides, I think his weird, speculative argument doesn't hold any water beyond his struggle with truthiness.

I'm not going to speculate on Sununu's vote - chatter is chatter, and so it's not really worth spinning without anything more concrete.

But York just doesn't have his facts right on Chafee. He claims "Chafee has not made a public statement of his intentions in the Bolton matter." Maybe NRO needs to trundle off some of its columnists and hire a fact checker or two instead - we reported a week ago that Chafee's spokesperson had announced the senator "has not decided how he would vote in committee." Whereas York appears to have made an effort to follow up on Senator Hagel, it looks like he lost interest before he called Chafee's office.

Which takes us to his spinning of Hagel's statement - don't get dizzy Byron. The fact is, the senator from Nebraska has gone from "I almost always support the president's nominees" to the unequivocal statement "I haven't decided yet how I'll vote on Mr. Bolton," that Steve reported last week.

Next, York gives us "most observers agree there won’t be a filibuster." Nope - that's what Chuck Schumer said - Dick Durbin, Democrat Senate whip, says otherwise.

Weirdly, York can't make up his mind in the second half of the column - he comes down with background chatter that the Republicans don't think the Democrats want a pre-election debate on national security, but the Dems effectively say to York "bring it on." And somehow, he manages to put a bow on all this that says Bolton will still be confirmed.

It looks like at least one Republican senator fears that a vote for Bolton could have collateral damage for his electoral prospects, and Schumer's weird statements are probably just an effort to make sure that his opinions are fully taken into consideration by the Democratic leadership in the Senate. Ultimately, Bolton is a failed diplomat who has set back UN reform and become a lightning rod for opposition to US policy in UN negotiations. Senators on both sides of the aisle know this, and President Bush is going to have to struggle with the decision to send the Ambassador back to the UN by executive fiat again.